Titans And Seahawks Lead Week 11 Dog Pound
Season-long spread results in the NFL continue to be almost evenly split between favorites and underdogs, with the chalk holding a slim 72-71 edge heading into this week’s action.
As only the Dog Pound can do, we look for a few special dogs with extra bark to recommend this week.
NY Jets at Denver (+6, Thursday night)
Denver continues to confound the experts, running a Florida Gator-like "read option" for QB Tim Tebow that has resulted in unlikely back-to-back road wins at Oakland and Kansas City, rocketing the Broncos to number two in NFL rush stats and into the mix in the jumbled AFC West. Jets coach Rex Ryan’s defense has leaked a bit more than he would like, and Mark Sanchez continues to blow hot and cold at QB. Denver hasn’t covered its first four home games this season and its RB corps is depleted, but the storyline is becoming quite compelling in the Mile High City. That cannot please the anti-Tebow crowd.
Tennessee (+6) at Atlanta
Chris Johnson looks like he is finally back into his old groove for the Titans, rushing for a season-best 130 yards last week at Carolina. We’re not sure, however, if the Tennessee defense can confound Atlanta QB Matt Ryan and the refined Falcon offense as it did when assigning a spy to Cam Newton a week ago. We know the Falcons are angry after their overtime loss to the Saints, and we doubt coach Mike Smith gambles on any more 4th-&-1 calls deep in his territory this week.
Buffalo (+2) at Miami
The Bills look like a spent force, their defense crumbling in the wake of injuries to NT Kyle Williams and LB Shawne Merriman. Now the offense is taking some lumps with key wideout Steve Johnson nursing a shoulder injury. Foes have been flummoxing QB Ryan Fitzpatrick the past few weeks, flooding their secondaries with as many as six DBs to negate the Bills’ "five-wide" looks. Miami is on the ascent and was never as bad as it looked in the first six weeks of the season. Note no TDs allowed by the ‘Fins defense the past two weeks, and QB Matt Moore is getting comfy at the controls of the offense. Not sure we trust the Bills at the moment.
Cincinnati (+7) at Baltimore
As we expected, the Ravens had problems last week at Seattle, considering the post-Steelers hangover and cross-country travel. Home-cooking has worked much better for Baltimore this season, 4-0 straight up and 3-1 vs. the line at M&T Bank Stadium, while outscoring foes 32-16. Cincy, however, continues to stare back at the Ravens and Steelers in the AFC North with a solid Marvin Lewis defense and maturing rookie QB Andy Dalton. The schedule, however, is beginning to get much tougher for the Bengals.
Jacksonville (+1) at Cleveland
There isn’t much (if any) cushion from the oddsmakers if you want to support the Jags this week. But if you do, be comforted by the fact the host Browns have only covered two of their last 17 games and have lost nine straight against the line at home, with the only straight-up success a 1-point win over the Dolphins. J’ville’s stop unit is the best platoon on the field, and the Cleveland offense is the worst platoon on the field. Therein lies the recommendation, wherever the oddsmakers post this number.
Oakland at Minnesota (+1)
This price moved against Minnesota after the Vikes were shellacked by the Packers on Monday night. Previously, we were a bit excited about the prospects of perhaps getting the Raiders, who have covered all four of their road games this season, plus a few points. Dynamics are now a bit different, but if backing Minnesota, remember that rookie QB Christian Ponder, despite some encouraging performances, is still on the NFL learning curve and making just his fourth career start.
Carolina (+7) at Detroit
The Lions are wobbling and their fans cannot be comforted about an upcoming schedule that gets a lot harder after the Panthers visit this Sunday. Detroit had also better locate a ground game fast or else QB Matthew Stafford (63 passes last week at Chicago) might have his arm fall off before Christmas. Also check Stafford’s possible hand injury, although many believe the Lions will not lose much at this stage if they go to vet backup Shaun Hill. Let’s see if the Lions go to school on what Tennessee did to fluster Newton last week, assigning a spy to keep Cam in the pocket and limiting his ability to improvise. Still, the Lions look unreliable at the moment.
Tampa Bay (+14) at Green Bay
This sort of "tall cotton" always intrigues but we’re not sure about bucking a Green Bay side that has won its last 15 games and covered 12 of those. Bucs QB Josh Freeman continues to endure something of a "junior slump" as Tampa Bay fades from contention in the NFC South.
Dallas at Washington (+7½)
Any takers for the Redskins? Five losses on the trot and a wretched, injury-plagued offense that can’t punch its way out of a paper bag makes Washington a tough sell at the moment. And Mike Shanahan must be very desperate if he was forced to go back to Rex Grossman at QB over John Beck. Dallas has not been a reliable proposition as chalk lately but the Cdowbiys are stirring with a couple of lopsided wins in their last three outings. Tony Romo’s ribs are healed and Oklahoma rookie RB DeMarco Murray has been a revelation. Again, any takers for Washington?
Arizona (+9½) at San Francisco
One of these weeks the 49ers will not cover a pointspread. For nine games, however, Jim Harbaugh’s team has yet to lose a spread decision. The Cards are beginning to think that 2nd-year John Skelton might be a better alternative than Kevin Kolb at QB. If bucking the Niners, consider that recent spread success and determine if you want to fly into the teeth of that wind.
Seattle (+2) at St. Louis
The Rams have only won twice all season so a case can certainly be made for Pete Carroll’s emerging Seattle side that has actually covered five of its last six games on the board. Tarvaris Jackson is also beginning to look like a real NFL quarterback. Not the worst dog to look at on this week’s card, though the price is short.
San Diego (+3½) at Chicago
Along with Green Bay, the Bears are the hottest team at the moment in the NFC with four straight wins and covers. The ability to establish RB Matt Forte on the ground has taken the pressure off of QB Jay Cutler, and the Chicago "D" has stopped allowing big plays since Lovie Smith made personnel adjustments last month. A case can still be made for a desperate and still-capable San Diego side, but the Bolts are on a 4-game losing streak, and coach Norv Turner is reportedly on very thin ice.
Philadelphia (+4½) at NY Giants
The Birds continue to flounder and we’re not even sure about Mike Vick’s status this week after injuries suffered a week ago. But Andy Reid has won at the Meadowlands before – remember last eyar’s rally at the new stadium, and DeSean Jackson’s punt return TD on the final play? – and Eli Manning is always prone to go walkabout when least expected.
Kansas City (+14½) at New England
More tall cotton to get wagerers interested. If liking that big number with Kansas City, however, remember that QB Matt Cassel is out with a hand injury, and Tyler Palko will be largely responsible for your investment this week. A lot of familiarity with the front office and staffs between these sides, but when has Bill Belichick ever demonstrated mercy to old friends?
Top underdog recommendations this week: Tennessee, Cincinnati, Carolina, Seattle.
Season-long spread results in the NFL continue to be almost evenly split between favorites and underdogs, with the chalk holding a slim 72-71 edge heading into this week’s action.
As only the Dog Pound can do, we look for a few special dogs with extra bark to recommend this week.
NY Jets at Denver (+6, Thursday night)
Denver continues to confound the experts, running a Florida Gator-like "read option" for QB Tim Tebow that has resulted in unlikely back-to-back road wins at Oakland and Kansas City, rocketing the Broncos to number two in NFL rush stats and into the mix in the jumbled AFC West. Jets coach Rex Ryan’s defense has leaked a bit more than he would like, and Mark Sanchez continues to blow hot and cold at QB. Denver hasn’t covered its first four home games this season and its RB corps is depleted, but the storyline is becoming quite compelling in the Mile High City. That cannot please the anti-Tebow crowd.
Tennessee (+6) at Atlanta
Chris Johnson looks like he is finally back into his old groove for the Titans, rushing for a season-best 130 yards last week at Carolina. We’re not sure, however, if the Tennessee defense can confound Atlanta QB Matt Ryan and the refined Falcon offense as it did when assigning a spy to Cam Newton a week ago. We know the Falcons are angry after their overtime loss to the Saints, and we doubt coach Mike Smith gambles on any more 4th-&-1 calls deep in his territory this week.
Buffalo (+2) at Miami
The Bills look like a spent force, their defense crumbling in the wake of injuries to NT Kyle Williams and LB Shawne Merriman. Now the offense is taking some lumps with key wideout Steve Johnson nursing a shoulder injury. Foes have been flummoxing QB Ryan Fitzpatrick the past few weeks, flooding their secondaries with as many as six DBs to negate the Bills’ "five-wide" looks. Miami is on the ascent and was never as bad as it looked in the first six weeks of the season. Note no TDs allowed by the ‘Fins defense the past two weeks, and QB Matt Moore is getting comfy at the controls of the offense. Not sure we trust the Bills at the moment.
Cincinnati (+7) at Baltimore
As we expected, the Ravens had problems last week at Seattle, considering the post-Steelers hangover and cross-country travel. Home-cooking has worked much better for Baltimore this season, 4-0 straight up and 3-1 vs. the line at M&T Bank Stadium, while outscoring foes 32-16. Cincy, however, continues to stare back at the Ravens and Steelers in the AFC North with a solid Marvin Lewis defense and maturing rookie QB Andy Dalton. The schedule, however, is beginning to get much tougher for the Bengals.
Jacksonville (+1) at Cleveland
There isn’t much (if any) cushion from the oddsmakers if you want to support the Jags this week. But if you do, be comforted by the fact the host Browns have only covered two of their last 17 games and have lost nine straight against the line at home, with the only straight-up success a 1-point win over the Dolphins. J’ville’s stop unit is the best platoon on the field, and the Cleveland offense is the worst platoon on the field. Therein lies the recommendation, wherever the oddsmakers post this number.
Oakland at Minnesota (+1)
This price moved against Minnesota after the Vikes were shellacked by the Packers on Monday night. Previously, we were a bit excited about the prospects of perhaps getting the Raiders, who have covered all four of their road games this season, plus a few points. Dynamics are now a bit different, but if backing Minnesota, remember that rookie QB Christian Ponder, despite some encouraging performances, is still on the NFL learning curve and making just his fourth career start.
Carolina (+7) at Detroit
The Lions are wobbling and their fans cannot be comforted about an upcoming schedule that gets a lot harder after the Panthers visit this Sunday. Detroit had also better locate a ground game fast or else QB Matthew Stafford (63 passes last week at Chicago) might have his arm fall off before Christmas. Also check Stafford’s possible hand injury, although many believe the Lions will not lose much at this stage if they go to vet backup Shaun Hill. Let’s see if the Lions go to school on what Tennessee did to fluster Newton last week, assigning a spy to keep Cam in the pocket and limiting his ability to improvise. Still, the Lions look unreliable at the moment.
Tampa Bay (+14) at Green Bay
This sort of "tall cotton" always intrigues but we’re not sure about bucking a Green Bay side that has won its last 15 games and covered 12 of those. Bucs QB Josh Freeman continues to endure something of a "junior slump" as Tampa Bay fades from contention in the NFC South.
Dallas at Washington (+7½)
Any takers for the Redskins? Five losses on the trot and a wretched, injury-plagued offense that can’t punch its way out of a paper bag makes Washington a tough sell at the moment. And Mike Shanahan must be very desperate if he was forced to go back to Rex Grossman at QB over John Beck. Dallas has not been a reliable proposition as chalk lately but the Cdowbiys are stirring with a couple of lopsided wins in their last three outings. Tony Romo’s ribs are healed and Oklahoma rookie RB DeMarco Murray has been a revelation. Again, any takers for Washington?
Arizona (+9½) at San Francisco
One of these weeks the 49ers will not cover a pointspread. For nine games, however, Jim Harbaugh’s team has yet to lose a spread decision. The Cards are beginning to think that 2nd-year John Skelton might be a better alternative than Kevin Kolb at QB. If bucking the Niners, consider that recent spread success and determine if you want to fly into the teeth of that wind.
Seattle (+2) at St. Louis
The Rams have only won twice all season so a case can certainly be made for Pete Carroll’s emerging Seattle side that has actually covered five of its last six games on the board. Tarvaris Jackson is also beginning to look like a real NFL quarterback. Not the worst dog to look at on this week’s card, though the price is short.
San Diego (+3½) at Chicago
Along with Green Bay, the Bears are the hottest team at the moment in the NFC with four straight wins and covers. The ability to establish RB Matt Forte on the ground has taken the pressure off of QB Jay Cutler, and the Chicago "D" has stopped allowing big plays since Lovie Smith made personnel adjustments last month. A case can still be made for a desperate and still-capable San Diego side, but the Bolts are on a 4-game losing streak, and coach Norv Turner is reportedly on very thin ice.
Philadelphia (+4½) at NY Giants
The Birds continue to flounder and we’re not even sure about Mike Vick’s status this week after injuries suffered a week ago. But Andy Reid has won at the Meadowlands before – remember last eyar’s rally at the new stadium, and DeSean Jackson’s punt return TD on the final play? – and Eli Manning is always prone to go walkabout when least expected.
Kansas City (+14½) at New England
More tall cotton to get wagerers interested. If liking that big number with Kansas City, however, remember that QB Matt Cassel is out with a hand injury, and Tyler Palko will be largely responsible for your investment this week. A lot of familiarity with the front office and staffs between these sides, but when has Bill Belichick ever demonstrated mercy to old friends?
Top underdog recommendations this week: Tennessee, Cincinnati, Carolina, Seattle.
Comment