NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (11/15 - 11/19)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Friday, November 18

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Oklahoma State at Iowa State: What bettors need to know
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Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (+27, 67)

THE STORY: It’s starting to look like No. 2 Oklahoma State controls its own destiny in terms of getting to the BCS Championship Game. Of course, that’s always up for debate when talking about the BCS.

The Cowboys have a good cushion in the standings over third-ranked Alabama and, along with No. 1 LSU and No. 11 Houston, remain one of three unbeaten teams in the country. Oklahoma State still has a home game against fifth-ranked Oklahoma looming at the end of the schedule, but it must first get past pesky Iowa State on Friday night.

The Cowboys, off to their best start in school history, have won the last two meetings with the Cyclones, including a 34-8 victory in Ames in 2009.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE MOVES: Oklahoma State opened as low as -24 and was bet up to -27.5. The total opened as low as 66 and has risen to 67.5 points.

WEATHER: The forecast for Ames is calling for a chance of rain and winds blowing south at 9 mph. Game-time temperatures will dip into the low 40s.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (10-0, 7-0 Big 12, 8-2 ATS): Quarterback Brandon Weeden and wide receiver Justin Blackmon were named two of the 15 semifinalists for the Walter Camp Player of the Year Award this week after a 66-6 shellacking of Texas Tech on the road last weekend.

Weeden is now considered one of the frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy. The 28-year-old senior is third nationally in passing yardage and tied for second with 31 touchdowns - 14 of which have gone to Blackmon. In the victory over Texas Tech, the prolific duo connected for 102 yards and two scores.

ABOUT IOWA STATE (5-4, 2-4 Big 12, 4-5 ATS): Before their bye last weekend, the Cyclones reeled off consecutive victories at Texas Tech and against Kansas to get within striking distance of their second bowl berth during coach Paul Rhoads’ three years with the program. Iowa State has its work cut out for it to reach the six-win mark, though. After this home game against Oklahoma State, the Cyclones finish the season with road trips to No. 5 Oklahoma and No. 17 Kansas State.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. In the last 12 years, Oklahoma State is 10-2 in the game prior to playing rival Oklahoma.

2. The home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these schools, with an average margin of victory of 28 points.

3. Iowa State rushed for more than 250 yards in each of its past two wins, including 368 at Texas Tech.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Cyclones are 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference games.
* Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma State 54, Iowa State 14. This Cowboys’ offense can’t be stopped, and they’ll move within one win of a likely appearance in the BCS title game.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 12

Friday's games

Central Michigan won five of last six games vs Toledo, winning three in row here, by 28-21-4 points, but Chippewas are 2-8 vs I-A foes, 0-6 vs spread in last six games- they're 1-7 as underdogs, 1-1 at home. Toledo won five of last six games, splitting 60-63/66-63 decisions last couple of games. Since 2005, they're 2-7 as road favorite. Faves are 5-2 vs spread in Rockets' last seven visits here. Over is 8-1 in last nine Central games, 4-1 in last five Toledo tilts. MAC home underdogs of 8+ points are 7-3 vs spread. Average total in last five series games is 69.8.

Home side won four of last five Oklahoma Statr-Iowa State games, with last four all decided by 26+ points; Cowboys beat Iowa State last couple years, 34-8/59-17, outgaining Cyclones by 551 total yards. Oklahoma St covered nine of last 10 games, crushing Texas Tech 66-6 in Lubbock last week; they're 4-0 as road favorites this year. Iowa State had last week off; they allowed 7-10 points last two games, with their last three games staying under the total. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in Big X games where spread is 20+ points; Big 12 home dogs are 8-8, but 3-0 if they're getting 20+ points. .


Saturday's best games

Home side won nine of last ten Iowa-Purdue games, with Hawkeyes winning four of last five, even though they lost four of last five visits here, with favorites 4-1 vs spread in those five games. Iowa is 0-3 on road, with losses at Iowa State/Minnesota; they’re 3-3 as favorite this year, 1-5 in last six tries as road favorite. Purdue won last three home games, scoring 45-21-26 points; they’ve been outscored 68-16 in second half of last four games. Boilers are 5-2-1 in last eight games as home dog. Six of last nine Iowa games went over the total. Home teams are 1-4-1 vs spread in Big Dozen games where spread is less than 4 points.

Tennessee won 13 of last 14 games vs Vanderbilt, winning last five in row, with four of five by 10+ points; Vandy lost six of last seven visits here, with four of five losses by 15+ points, but Vols are 0-6 in SEC for first time ever and were outscored 87-0 in second half of last five games. Vandy passing game averaging 213.3 ypg in last three games behind young Rodgers, but Commodores are 0-3 on road, outscored 81-24. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Tennessee games, but last five Vandy games went over. Both teams need this game in attempt tp become bowl eligible. SEC home teams are 6-2-1 vs spread in games where spread is less than 4 points.

Washington State freshman QB Halliday gets first start after coming off bench and throwing for 494 yards in rainy upset win over Arizona State last week, which snapped Coogs’ 5-game losing skid; where they been hiding him? Utah won/covered last three games, with all three wins by 13+ points; they’re 3-2 on road this year, 2-1 as favorite- they’re 12-9 in last 21 games as road favorite (0-0 this year). Utes are 6-0 when they allow 21 or less points; all of their wins are by 12+ points; they’re 0-4 allowing more than 21. Four of last five Utah games stayed under total; three of last four Wazzu games went over. Pac-10 home underdogs of 12 or less points are 6-4 vs spread.

Arizona State had bitter road defeats last two weeks, scoring 27-28 points in losses as road favorites of 8-12 points; they still get to Pac-12 title game if they win last two games. ASU is 4-0 at home vs I-A foes (2-2 as home faves) winning by 7-21-15-34 points. Arizona is 1-4 as an underdog this year, but underdogs are 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven Arizona-ASU games, with Wildcats losing three of last four visits here—Arizona’s last three games in Tempe were all decided by exactly 3 points. Sun Devils are 8-4 in last 12 series games, with five of last seven decided by 7 or less points. Last seven ASU games, six of last seven Arizona games went over the total.

Interesting to see how Stanford bounces back from first loss, getting pounded at home by Oregon last week; Cardinal is 4-1 as home favorite this year, winning home games by 54-26-41-44 points. Stanford crushed Cal 48-14 LY, just second win in last nine games vs archrival Bears. Cal won three of last four games, allowing 10 or less points in all three wins; they’re 0-3 as an underdog this year. Bears won three of last four visits to Farm; underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series meetings here. Pac-10 home favorites of 8+ points are 10-5 vs spread this season. Last seven Cal games stayed under total; three of last four Stanford games went over.

Since 2001, Nebraska is 6-12 vs spread as road underdogs; they’re 0-1 this year, losing 48-17 at Wisconsin, its only loss in four road games (beat two stiffs and Penn State last week). Huskers won four of last five games, stay alive for division title with win here. Michigan split last four games after a 6-0 start; they’re 4-1 as home faves this season, winning in Big House by 24-4-28-21-58-22 points at home. Wolverines were held to 14-16 points in their losses. Nebraska held three of last four foes to 14 or less points. Single digit home favorites are 4-3 in Big Dozen games this season. Last four games for both teams stayed under the total.

Since 2006, Penn State is 0-6 vs spread as a road underdog; Lions go on road for first time since last week’s drama; favorite is 7-0 vs spread in their last seven visits to Ohio State, with OSU winning six of seven, with five of the wins by 11+ points. Buckeyes are 7-2 overall in last nine series games, with last five wins all by 11+ points. Lions scored 16 or less points in six of eight games vs I-A foes; they’re 0-1-1 as underdog this year. OSU allowed 20+ points in each of last three games; they’ve completed 50+% of passes once in last eight games- they’re 2-3 as a home favorite. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Penn State games; four of last five Buckeye games went over.

Cincinnati won its last five games vs Rutgers, gaining 661 yards in LY’s 69-38 drubbing of Knights; Bearcats won last two visits to Garden State by 47-15/28-23 scores. Last week’s home loss to West Virginia snapped Cincy’s 6-game win streak, but they haven’t led at half in any of last four games, with last three all decided by 3 points. Rutgers is 4-1 at home, with only loss in snow to West Virginia, when they were up 31-21 at half; Knights are 4-2 vs spread as underdog this year. Bearcats are 6-0 when allowing 23 or less points, 1-2 when they allow more. Big East home underdogs are 6-2 vs spread this season. Under is 5-1 in last six Cincinnati games, 6-1 in last seven Rutgers tilts.

Kansas State started season 7-0, winning four weeks in row as a dog; since then, they’ve allowed 58-52-50 points in losing two of three games, giving up 1,232 passing yards (8.68 yards/attempt). Wildcats are 3-1 as road dog this year; Snyder covered 14 of last 20 games as an underdog. Texas is 2-3 in last five games with only one INT; they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 25-1-43-32 points, and a loss to unbeaten Oklahoma State. Underdog covered last six Kansas State-Texas games; this is just second series meeting since ’06. Wildcats actually won two of last three visits here, but their last trip to Austin was in ’07. Seven of last eight K-State games went over the total.

Underdogs are an amazing 17-2 vs spread in WAC games this season, 10-1 on road; Louisiana Tech is 4-0 as road dog this year, winning last four road games SU while allowing just 14 ppg. Bulldogs won/covered last five games, winning as favorite at Ole Miss last week. Nevada won its last six games with Tech, with five wins by 10+ points; favorites covered six of last seven series games. Tech lost last three visits to Reno by average score of 41-17. Wolf Pack won last five games (4 of 5 at home) after 1-3 start (all four on road), with four wins by 14+ points; they’re 2-2 as home faves this year, 23-9 since 2004. Nevada’s last three games went over the total. Nevada is 4-0 in WAC but didn’t cover any of the four wins.

Road team covered the three Miami-South Florida games, with Bulls winning 23-20 on South Beach LY; anytime Florida schools play, it’s a big recruiting turf game, so this will be spirited, even though teams are mediocre. Miami needs one more win to be bowl eligible; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win at North Carolina- they’re 1-5 this year in games decided by 8 or less points. South Florida’s win at Syracuse last week snapped its 4-game losing streak. Bulls are 4-1 at home, losing 37-34 (-3) to Cincinnati. Big East teams are 4-7 vs spread in non-league games where spread is less than 5 points; ACC teams are 3-4. Five of last seven Miami games went over the total.

Oklahoma won its last 14 games vs Baylor, winning last seven visits here, last six all by 26+ points; road team covered last six series games. Only once in last nine series games have Sooners won by less than 26 points, but Bears are 4-0 at home vs I-A foes this year, scoring 49.3 ppg with wins over TCU/Missouri. Since 2005, Baylor is just 5-15 as home underdog (3-6 under Briles, 1-0 this year). Sooners are 4-0 as road favorites this year, winning on road by 10-38-30-41 points; they scored 58-41 points in two games since getting upset at home by Texas Tech. Over is 7-1 in last eight Baylor games, 5-2 in Sooners’ last seven. Big 12 favorites of 11-19 points are 9-3 vs spread this season.

USC is 8-2, and unranked because they’re on probation; they allowed 43-56 points in their two losses. Trojans won five of last six games, scoring 30+ points in all six games- their only loss in that span was 56-48 OT loss at then-unbeaten Stanford. Oregon won its last nine games, covering six of last eight; they’re 2-2 as home favorite this year, 10-4-1 under Kelly. Favorites covered eight of last ten USC-Oregon games, with Ducks 7-4 in last 11, 5-2 in last seven played here (only one of five losses by more than 7 points); favorite is 4-3 vs spread in Trojans’ last seven visits here. Pac-12 home favorites of 7+ points are 11-5 vs spread this season. Over is 6-3 in Oregon games this season.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Week 12

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College football betting weather report: Week 12
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The middle of November brings more winter weather. Find out how Mother Nature will impact your college football bets in Week 12:

Akron Zips at Buffalo Bulls (-11.5, 46)

Winds will reach speeds of up to 20 mph at UB Stadium, cooling temperatures into the high 40s.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats (-15.5, 58)

Rain is in the forecast for Evanston, with a 29 percent chance of showers later in the game and winds, blowing South, at speeds of up to 20 mph. Game-time temperatures will fall into the mid 40s.

Kansas Jayhawks at Texas A&M Aggies (-31, 66)

Winds are expected to reach gust of up to 20 mph, blowing south from corner to corner at Kyle Field.

New Mexico Lobos at Wyoming Cowboys (-24, 54)

The forecast in Laramie is calling for a 49 percent chance of snow, with winds blowing west at speeds of up to 25 mph. Game-time temperatures will dip into the mid 20s – pretty cold for a traveling Lobos squad.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks (-13, 52.5)

There is a chance of thunderstorms late into this SEC showdown. The forecast calls for a 16 percent chance of showers, starting late in the fourth quarter.

Washington Huskies at Oregon State Beavers (+2, 58)

Rain is in the forecast for Corvallis, with the 49 percent chance of showers for Saturday’s Pac-12 matchup. Temperatures will dip into the low 40s.

Boston College Eagles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-24, 47.5)

Showers could soak this non-conference clash late in the fourth quarter. The forecast is calling for a 13 percent chance of rain, with game-time temperatures falling into the high 40s. Winds are expected to blow south, end to end, at speeds of 16 mph in South Bend.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Nevada Wolf Pack (-7, 58.5)

Game-time temperatures will fall into the low 30s with a chance of snow late into this huge WAC battle. There’s a 10 percent chance of the white stuff.

Utah Utes at Washington State Cougars (+3.5, 50.5)

The forecast for Pullman is calling for a 49 percent chance of snow and game-time temperatures in the low 20s.

FIU Golden Panthers at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (-1.5, 50)

There’s a chance of thunderstorms late into this contest, with a 10 percent chance of rain.

USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks (-14.5, 68)

Rain is in the forecast for Pleasant Hill Saturday. There’s a 48 percent chance of showers to start the game, with a 29 percent chance later in the evening. Temperatures will drop into the low 30s.

Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs (+18, 56.5)

The forecast for San Diego is calling for a 25 percent chance of showers to open this MWC matchup.

California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal (-17.5, 55.5)

The Cardinal had their parade rained on in last week’s loss to Oregon. This week, it’s actual rain in Palo Alto, with a 59 chance of showers Saturday night. Temperatures will fall into the mid 40s.

Fresno State Bulldogs at Hawaii Warriors (-4.5, 63.5)

Rain could dampen the Bulldogs vacation to Hawaii this weekend. There’s a 24 chance of showers late into this WAC matchup.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: NCAAF Week 12 line moves

Week 12 might not have the marquee matchups like next week’s college football slate, but that hasn’t stopped the early money from moving the odds. We talk to Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest adjustments on the board:

Louisville Cardinals at UConn Huskies -- Open: +1, Move -1

The Huskies opened as slight home pups, but early action on the host has flipped the spread heading into the weekend. Rood says the line move is mostly an opinion play, with sharps grabbing a home team and a point.

Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs – Open: -27.5, Move: -30.5

Rood believes 30 points is a lot to give in an SEC game, but also doesn’t think UK makes the cut when compared to the rest of the conference. Georgia has been playing some of the best football in the country, covering seven of its last eight games.

“The Bulldogs don’t have any issues embarrassing an inferior opponent,” says Rood, noting UGA’s 63-16 win over New Mexico State. “If you don’t have the horses to run, Georgia is going to roll all over you.”

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears – Open: +14, Move: +16

The Sooners have climbed from two-touchdown chalk to as high as -16 at some books. The majority of the action is all public, which could grab the attention of sharps if the number keeps climbing. Wiseguys could come back and buy up Baylor.

Rood believes public bettors aren’t as high on the Bears and QB Robert Griffin III as they were to open the season.

“They really got exposed and put in their place in the pecking order in the Big 12 conference,” he says.

California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal – Open: -20, Move -17.5

Some of the shine has worn off the Cardinal after last week’s loss to Oregon. Stanford is no longer in the BCS title picture and that lack of motivation has slowed the steady stream of action on Andrew Luck and Co. that’s been coming in all season.

But while parlay money on the Cardinal is down, and sharps have sided with Cal, Rood doesn’t discount Stanford as a solid bet.

Fresno State Bulldogs at Hawaii Warriors – Open: -6, Move: -4.5

There are a ton of factors playing into this game: Hawaii’s injured QB, Fresno State recent suspensions and coach resignations, the Warriors’ steady home record. Rood, who tags this late-night matchup the “Get out or go even deeper game," believes this line is not done dancing.

“We’ll really start to see this one move once those bankrolls take a hit in the afternoon games,” he says. “We’ll have guys doubling up and trying to dig themselves out.”

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 19

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Oklahoma at Baylor: What bettors need to know
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Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (+15, 75)

THE STORY: If not for one inexplicable slip-up, No. 5 Oklahoma would be three wins away from playing for the national championship. The Sooners still have a chance to get there, but Baylor and star quarterback Robert Griffin III will try to put those hopes to rest for good - and bolster Griffin's Heisman Trophy campaign in the process - by beating the Sooners for the first time. Oklahoma leads the series 20-0. Baylor is 5-0 at home this season; its last home defeat was last year's 53-24 loss to Oklahoma.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC (regional), ESPN3.com.

LINE MOVES: Oklahoma opened as a two-touchdown road favorite and has been bet up to as high as -16. The total opened around 75 points and has remained steady at most books.

WEATHER: The forecast in Waco is calling for cloudy skies and winds, blowing south at 12 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 70s.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (8-1, 5-1 Big 12, 6-3 ATS): The Sooners had a week off after a 41-25 home victory over Texas A&M in which they kept alive their dreams of a Big 12 title and potential BCS title game appearance. The Sooners lost star wide receiver Ryan Broyles (torn ACL) in the process, though. Broyles holds the NCAA all-time receptions record with 349 and ranks second all-time with 4,586 receiving yards. The Sooners already had lost running back Dominique Whaley to a broken ankle.

ABOUT BAYLOR (6-3, 3-3, 4-4 ATS): Fourth-year coach Art Briles has led a turnaround at Baylor, and nothing would signify the program's rise more than its first win against Oklahoma. The Bears nearly suffered their own unexpected stumble last week, but survived for a 31-30 victory over lowly Kansas when the Bears rallied from a 21-point deficit in the second half and the Jayhawks failed to convert a potential game-winning two-point conversion in overtime.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Griffin is one of four players in FBS history with more than 9,000 passing yards and 2,000 rushing yards in his career.

2. Oklahoma's defense has produced 15 sacks over the past four games while the offense has allowed only one during that stretch.

3. Oklahoma has won its last eight games away from home and its last five true road games dating to last season.

TRENDS:

* Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Baylor.
* Road team is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Bears' last seven games as underdogs.
* Over is 5-2 in Sooners' last seven games as favorites.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma 41, Baylor 33 - Griffin and the Bears' offense are no joke, but Baylor's defense hasn't proven it can stop quality teams


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