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Forecasting the BCS lines
November 17, 2011
One of the fun things to do at this juncture of the season is speculate what the college football bowls will be, and more importantly, what the lines of those games will be.
I talked with Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White, co-star of “The Linemakers’ TV show on Discovery’s Velocity channel, about all of the top possible BCS bowl games and he gave his raw number on all the games with LSU being favored against anyone they match up against. That’s of course assuming they beat Arkansas next week and Georgia in the SEC title game.
I say ‘raw number’ because that’s a number compiled strictly on White's rating for a neutral site. The sports books will then take that number and see if they can do any tinkering with it to justify a move to a key number like 3, 4, 6, 7 or 10 as their starting point.
By getting to that key number as a starting point, it allows some flexibility to absorb multiple limit bets before making a move and limit exposure with middle opportunities. For example, if you opened LSU -2 against Oklahoma, one limit bet on the favorite might take you to -2 ½ and then maybe two limit bets from there to -3.
Whereas, if you opened -3 from the start, you could absorb three to four limit bets on Oklahoma before going to -2 ½.
Obviously, the market dictates what the games open at as well, but with isolated Bowl games, most Las Vegas sports books have a side they’ve chosen that they want their first few bets to be based on all their data accumulated from the season. The handle is so large in these games that they’re all kind of treated like mini-Super Bowls.
Here’s a look at what White's projected bowl numbers were with comments on what the sports book might do with that number:
LSU -1 vs. Alabama: There’s a feeling that the public and sharp money both like LSU, so starting at -2 ½ to see if Alabama money can quickly be found might be an early strategy here. If LSU money still comes in, then the book saved itself two to three moves up the ladder and limit exposure where they can be beaten by both sides.
LSU -2 ½ vs. Oklahoma: There are factions that still believe Oklahoma is the best team in the nation. A sports book would open -3 and say, “show me the money.”
LSU -3 vs. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys can score at will, but might they find some issues with LSU’s defense? Although LSU hasn’t looked good offensively all season, they might be at their best against Oklahoma State’s defense. The public would still side with LSU and the book might want to get closer to -5 by opening -4 ½.
LSU -3 vs. Oregon: Oregon is a very popular public team on the West Coast and in games like this, they have to respect almost as much as the sharp money because their contributions to the overall cash pile will outweigh the sharps. LSU -3 would be a good starting point to see where the money takes them, if anywhere at all.
Should LSU lose in the next three weeks, it will be a wild dash to the finish. Oklahoma or Oklahoma State will also eliminate one of themselves from contention on Dec. 3. If it’s Oklahoma winning, then Alabama would be in the driver’s seat. Oregon would have to win very impressively over USC this weekend to help offset the surge in points Oklahoma would get by beating OSU.
Here are Kenny White’s projected lines involving Alabama in the BCS National Championship game under the scenario that LSU loses:
Alabama -1.5 vs. Oklahoma
Alabama -1.5 vs. Oklahoma State
Alabama -2 ½ vs. Oregon
Here’s a look at White’s projected line for a couple of other BCS Bowl games possibilities:
Orange Bowl: Clemson -7 vs. Cincinnati
Sugar Bowl: Alabama -4 vs. Stanford
Rose Bowl: Oregon -2 ½ vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma -10 vs. Houston
November 17, 2011
One of the fun things to do at this juncture of the season is speculate what the college football bowls will be, and more importantly, what the lines of those games will be.
I talked with Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White, co-star of “The Linemakers’ TV show on Discovery’s Velocity channel, about all of the top possible BCS bowl games and he gave his raw number on all the games with LSU being favored against anyone they match up against. That’s of course assuming they beat Arkansas next week and Georgia in the SEC title game.
I say ‘raw number’ because that’s a number compiled strictly on White's rating for a neutral site. The sports books will then take that number and see if they can do any tinkering with it to justify a move to a key number like 3, 4, 6, 7 or 10 as their starting point.
By getting to that key number as a starting point, it allows some flexibility to absorb multiple limit bets before making a move and limit exposure with middle opportunities. For example, if you opened LSU -2 against Oklahoma, one limit bet on the favorite might take you to -2 ½ and then maybe two limit bets from there to -3.
Whereas, if you opened -3 from the start, you could absorb three to four limit bets on Oklahoma before going to -2 ½.
Obviously, the market dictates what the games open at as well, but with isolated Bowl games, most Las Vegas sports books have a side they’ve chosen that they want their first few bets to be based on all their data accumulated from the season. The handle is so large in these games that they’re all kind of treated like mini-Super Bowls.
Here’s a look at what White's projected bowl numbers were with comments on what the sports book might do with that number:
LSU -1 vs. Alabama: There’s a feeling that the public and sharp money both like LSU, so starting at -2 ½ to see if Alabama money can quickly be found might be an early strategy here. If LSU money still comes in, then the book saved itself two to three moves up the ladder and limit exposure where they can be beaten by both sides.
LSU -2 ½ vs. Oklahoma: There are factions that still believe Oklahoma is the best team in the nation. A sports book would open -3 and say, “show me the money.”
LSU -3 vs. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys can score at will, but might they find some issues with LSU’s defense? Although LSU hasn’t looked good offensively all season, they might be at their best against Oklahoma State’s defense. The public would still side with LSU and the book might want to get closer to -5 by opening -4 ½.
LSU -3 vs. Oregon: Oregon is a very popular public team on the West Coast and in games like this, they have to respect almost as much as the sharp money because their contributions to the overall cash pile will outweigh the sharps. LSU -3 would be a good starting point to see where the money takes them, if anywhere at all.
Should LSU lose in the next three weeks, it will be a wild dash to the finish. Oklahoma or Oklahoma State will also eliminate one of themselves from contention on Dec. 3. If it’s Oklahoma winning, then Alabama would be in the driver’s seat. Oregon would have to win very impressively over USC this weekend to help offset the surge in points Oklahoma would get by beating OSU.
Here are Kenny White’s projected lines involving Alabama in the BCS National Championship game under the scenario that LSU loses:
Alabama -1.5 vs. Oklahoma
Alabama -1.5 vs. Oklahoma State
Alabama -2 ½ vs. Oregon
Here’s a look at White’s projected line for a couple of other BCS Bowl games possibilities:
Orange Bowl: Clemson -7 vs. Cincinnati
Sugar Bowl: Alabama -4 vs. Stanford
Rose Bowl: Oregon -2 ½ vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma -10 vs. Houston
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