The Bum's CFB Week # 12 Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 12

November 16, 2011


Thursday, Nov. 17
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer no covers last four at home TY. Heels, however, just 1-3 vs. line away in 2011, and 0-2 as dog TY. Beamer has covered his last home game each of the past seven years. VPI, based on team trends.

MARSHALL at MEMPHIS...Home team has failed to cover last four in series (0-3-1). Tigers only 3-12 vs. line at home vs. FBS foes since 2009. arshall, based on Memphis home woes.

SOUTHERN MISS at UAB...Revenge spot for Golden Eagles after OT loss vs. UAB LY. USM 7-1 vs. line last 8 TY. USM, based on recent trends.




Friday, Nov. 18
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TOLEDO at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...CMU continues to lose vs. spread, now 0-6 last 6 and 1-10 vs. number TY, 3-16 last 19 on board. Toledo, based on CMU negatives.

OKLAHOMA STATE at IOWA STATE...OSU has now covered 11 straight on road and 17-5 vs. points overall since LY. Cyclones only 3-6 last 9 vs. line as host. OSU, based on team trends.




Saturday, Nov. 19
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MINNESOTA at NORTHWESTERN...Go-Go Gophers have covered 5 of last 6 meetings. But Cats have won and covered big their last two TY as chalk. Slight to NU, based on recent trends.

WISCONSIN at ILLINOIS...Zook only 5-15 against line last 20 at Champaign-Urbana, though Zook is 10-2 his last 12 as dog. Bielema 14-3 vs. spread last 17 since late 2010. UW, based on team trends.

IOWA at PURDUE...Ferentz no covers last five as road chalk since early LY. Danny Hope 4-2 as home dog at Purdue since 2009. Purdue, based on recent Iowa road chalk woes.

INDIANA at MICHIGAN STATE...MSU only 8-8 as home chalk since '09, and 2-4 last six laying DD. IU has covered its last two as Big Ten dog for Wilson. Slight to IU, based on recent trends.

LOUISVILLE at CONNECTICUT...Cards continuing their road magic, now covering four straight away TY and six straight since late LY, as well as 8 of 9 since Charlie Strong took over in 2010. Louisville, based on road trends.

GEORGIA TECH at DUKE...GT has won last seven SU from Duke and had covered five straight vs. Blue Devils prior to 30-20 non-covering win LY. GT, based on team trends.

MARYLAND at WAKE FOREST...Terps no wins or covers last fiver or eight of last nine TY. Revenge for Grobe after humiliating 62-14 loss to Ralph Friedgen LY. Wake, based on recent Terp woes.

VIRGINIA at FLORIDA STATE...Canes 1-4 last five on board the game following Miami. Cavs have won and covered last two on road TY for Mike London. Slight to Va, based on team trends.

CLEMSON at NC STATE...Curious series trend in which the road team has covered the last six meetings. But Tom O'Brien 24-10 vs. points in last six games of reg.-season onward since arriving at NCS in 2007. Slight to NCS, based on team trends.

AKRON at BUFFALO...Bulls 1-6-1 last 8 on board as chalk vs. FBS foes. But Zips only 5-12 against line last 17 as visitor. Slight to Akron, based on team and recent series trends.

KENTUCKY at GEORGIA...Joker 1-8 vs. spread last 9 away from Lexington. Mark Richt on 7-1 spread uptick last 8 TY. Georgia, based on recent trends.

VANDERBILT at TENNESSEE...Dores have covered last three trips to Neyland Stadium. In fact the home team has failed to cover the last six series meetings. Dores have covered last 5 TY and 8 of 10 in 2011. Vandy, based on series and team trends.

TEXAS TECH at MISSOURI...Texas Tech "over" 8 of last 10 since late 2010. Tuberville only 3-5 as dog since arriving at TT LY. "Over" and slight to Mizzou, based on "totals" and team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at KENT STATE... Ron English has covered 5 of his last 6 as visitor for EMU and 4 of last 5 on MAC trail. Slight to EMU, based on road mark.

ARMY at TEMPLE...Black Knights just 1-4 vs. line as visitor TY. Temple has won and covered last three meetings, but Owls no covers last three TY. Slight to Temple, based on series trends.

NEW MEXICO at WYOMING...UNM 8-14 against spread since LY. Dave Christensen has covered last 4 TY and is 20-13 against number since arriving at Laramie in 2009. Wyo, based on UNM negatives.

NEW MEXICO STATE at BYU...Ags 12-6 against spread on road for Walker since 2009. Cougs on 4-game spread win streak and 11-4 against spread last 15 since late LY. Slight to NMSU, based on DeWayne Walker road marks.

TULSA at UTEP...Tulsa four straight covers TY. Golden Hurricane 9-1 against points last ten on road. Miners 15-26 vs. line from their sixth game of reg. season onward since 2005. Tulsa, based on team trends.

TULANE at RICE...Physical battle at Rice Stadium. Wave 10-26-1 its last 37 games on board since mid 2008, also 5-12-1 last 18 on road. Owls 7-1 vs. spread last 8 as host, and are 7-2 as home chalk since 2007 and 9-2 as chalk anywhere since 2007. Rice, based on team trends.

KANSAS at TEXAS A&M...A&M on 1-8 spread slide (1-6 as chalk) at moment. Slight to KU, based on recent A&M woes.
UTAH at WASHINGTON STATE...Utes 9-4-1 vs. spread last 14 away from Salt Lake City. Slight to Utah, based on team trends.

LSU at OLE MISS...Les Miles has now won and covered his last six away from home. Surprisingly, however, Rebs have covered 8 of last 10 in this old rivalry that includes some all-time classics (Billy Cannon 1959, etc.). But Rebs 2-7 last 9 vs. number and 4-12 last 16 against spread. LSU, based on team trends.

COLORADO STATE at TCU...Rams 2-7 vs. line TY, 5-13 last 18 away, 8-19 last 27 on board since early 2009. CSU 2-6 vs. spread last 8 against TCU since 2002. TCU, based on CSU negatives.

WASHINGTON at OREGON STATE...Another series Mike Riley has owned, winning last 6 and covering last 7 vs. Huskies. Riley 21-10 last 31 as dog (though 0-3 last two). U-Dub only 4-8 as road chalk since 2000. OSU, based on series trends and Riley marks.

ARIZONA at ARIZONA STATE...Territorial Cup! Used to be a big road series but not as much lately. Cats just 5-13 last 18 vs. line since mid 2010. Dennis Erickson 8-4 last 12 on line at home. ASU, based on team trends.

CAL at STANFORD...Big Game! Cal has covered 4 of last 5 at Palo Alto and is 7-3 vs. line last 10 Big Games. Tedford no covers last seven on road. Stanford, based on recent trends.

NEBRASKA at MICHIGAN...Bo Pelini 5-1 last 6 as underdog, Brady Hoke 4-1 vs. line at home TY, 8-3 as host at SDSU & Michigan since LY. Slight to Michigan, based on Brady Hoke home marks.

COLORADO at UCLA...Buffs no covers last 7 TY and 0-10 vs. spread last ten as visitor. Neuheisel has won and covered last two at Rose Bowl TY but still only 2-3 vs. line at home in 2011 and 0-2 as chalk TY. UCLA, based on Colorado road woes.

UCF at EAST CAROLINA...O'Leary has covered last 3 vs. ECU but covered as a SU losing dog in two of those. UCF 2-6 vs. points last 8 TY. ECU, based on recent UCF woes.

PENN STATE at OHIO STATE...OSU has won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings. PSU 3-9 vs. line last 11 on board since late LY. Ohio State, based on team and series trends.

CINCINNATI at RUTGERS...Cincy has mostly handled Rutgers, winning last five SU and covering four of those. Cincy, based on series trends.

KANSAS STATE at TEXAS...Bill Snyder has won last three and covered last four vs. Texas dating back to 2003. Snyder 4-0 vs. line away TY and has covered 7 of last 8 in 2011. Snyder 14-6 as dog since returning to KSU sidelines in 2009. KSU, based on team and series trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at NOTRE DAME...Eagles won 6 in a row in series from 2001-08 and covered in narrow 20-16 loss in '09 before LY. Spaziani a bit tougher on road than at home lately (2-2 vs. spread away TY, 7-3 since LY). BC, based on series trends.

NAVY at SAN JOSE STATE...Mids 9-3 vs. number last 12 away from Annapolis, although Spartans 4-1 against spread last 5 as home dog. Navy, based on road mark.

LA TECH at NEVADA...Chris Ault 23-8 vs. line as Reno chalk since returning to Wolf Pack sidelines in 2004. Ault 6-0 SU, 5-1 vs. line against Bulldogs since 2005, or since he lost his first game back as Nevada coach in 2004 opener. Note Sonny Dykes' 5 straight covers TY and 5-0 mark as dog in 2011. Slight to Nevada, based on series and Ault home trends.

UTAH STATE at IDAHO...Vandals 1-9 vs. line last 10 vs. WAC foes at home. Utags have won and covered last two at Kibbie Dome and are 13-5-1 last 19 vs. spread on road. USU, based on team trends.

UNLV at AIR FORCE...Rebs have lost 14 straight on road (1-13 vs. line). Falcs, however, have dropped last 7 (0-6 TY) and 9 of last 10 vs. spread at home, although AFA has won and covered last four as host vs. UNLV. AFA, based on series home trends.

SMU at HOUSTON...Cougs have covered last five TY and have also won last five SU vs. SMU, covering the last two. June Jones 4-7 last 11 and 7-12 last 19 on board with SMU, he's also 1-3 as dog TY and 2-5 in role since LY in what was once a good role for him. UH, based on recent trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at ARKANSAS (at Little Rock)...Home team had covered eight straight in this series until Arkansas won at Starkville LY. Hogs have won and covered last four as series host. Petrino 18-5 last 23 vs. line as host. Arkansas, based on team and series home trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at SOUTH FLORIDA...Canes are 1-5 vs. line last six right after facing Florida State. Skip 5-3 as dog at USF and 28-12 in role since 2005 at ECU & USF. Miami 8-16 as road chalk since 2005. USF, especially if dog, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA at BAYLOR...Note that visiting team has covered last six meetings. Bob Stoops 6-2 vs. number last 8 away from Norman. Baylor, however, has covered first four at home TY. OU, based on series trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at OREGON...Note SC 0-5 SU and vs. line in state of Oregon since 2006 (0-3 at OSU, 0-2 at Oregon). Ducks have won and covered 3 of last 4 vs. SC and are 20-11 last 31 on board at Autzen Stadium. Lane Kiffin 7-2 vs. spread last nine away from home with Trojans. Oregon, based on series trends.

BOISE STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Broncs still 12-2 against line last 14 away from blue carpet. Rocky Long no covers last 3 at home TY. Boise, based on road trends.

FRESNO STATE at HAWAII...Bulldogs have won and covered last three at Aloha Stadium in a very pronounced road series, with visiting team covering last six meetings. Pat Hill 11-6 as road dog since 2007. Fresno, based on team and series road trends.




Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at TROY...Neither too good lately, FAU 2-7 vs. line TY, 2-12 last 14, and 3-16 last 19 for Schnellenberger. Owls have lost and failed to cover 5 of 6 vs. Troy since 2004. But Trojans 7-15 against points since 2010. Troy, based on FAU woes.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at NORTH TEXAS...WKU on 7-game cover streak! But Mean Green has won and covered handily last three meetings. Slight to WKU, based on recent trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at UL-MONROE...ULM has covered last five meetings. ULM, based on team and series trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Red Wolves sizzling 8-2 vs. line TY and 14-6 last 20 on board. MTSU 0-4 vs. line at home TY and 2-8 vs. spread at Murfreesboro since

[StarDust Bum]

TGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAC UPDATE...WESTERN MICHIGAN at MIAMI-OHIO!

Just like a year ago, Miami-Ohio is playing its best football in the second half of the season. The RedHawks have five covers in their last six outings, although they're kicking themselves for gifting last Wednesday's game to Temple, when three Miami turnovers led directly to 17 Owls points in a bitter 24-21 loss at Philadelphia. Now the RedHawks are in must-win mode to keep their MAC East and bowl hopes alive. Thanks to the leadership of QB Zac Dysert, Miami has overcome its inability to run the ball (only 77 ppg, last in the nation) to nonetheless score 32.3 ppg over its last three games. And expect the RedHawks to do more damage vs. a leaky WMU "D" that allowed Toledo to score 66 points and gain 804 yards in the Broncos' last outing. Those recurring shortcomings on defense have somewhat nullified prolific WMU QB Alex Carder, who passed for 584 yards and 7 TDs last week at the Glass Bowl...and still lost the game. With the Broncos on a 4-game spread losing streak, we suggest Miami at this short price, but might even prefer the "over" a bit more considering WMU's penchant for getting involved in shootouts.

TGS Score Forecast: "OVER" MIAMI-O 38 - Wmu 31





TGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAC UPDATE II...OHIO at BOWLING GREEN!

Wednesday could be a good night for Frank Solich's Ohio Bobcats, who can wrap up the MAC East crown with a win at Bowling Green and a Miami loss to WMU. Expect the Bobcats to have a good chance to uphold their end of the bargain tonight, especially if QB Tyler Tettleton (2455 YP and 22 TDP) continues in his recent form. The emergence of Tettleton as a big-time QB has given Solich the sort of weapon he has never had at Athens, while the complement provided by a typically physical Bobcat infantry assault (203 ypg) speaks to the Bobcats' uncommon offensive balance. The availabily of RB Donte Harden (6.2 ypc) at full strength after flu symptoms last week at CMU further bolster's Solich arsenal. Meanwhile, Bowling Green seems to be headed in the opposite direction, its offense having bogged down since piling up 521 ypg in its first three games; the Falcs have produced only 335 ypg their last seven, and haven't scored more than 21 points in a game since September. And while frosh RB Anthon Samuel has been a revelation, opposing defenses are still teeing off on QB Matt Schilz, who was under constant pressure last week in a 45-14 loss to NIU. Solich's Ohio and the "under" are the preferred recommendations tonight at Doyt-Perry Stadium.

TGS Score Forecast: "UNDER" OHIO 31 - Bgsu 17

[StarDust Bum]

TGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPDATE...LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE?


North Carolina at VIRGINIA TECH (Thursday)...UNC led 10-9 at halftime, but gave up 17 unanswered points in 3rd Q of eventual 26-10 setback in Chapel Hill LY. Doubt VT has forgotten how Tar Heels pulled off stunning 20-17 upset in Blacksburg on national TV in 2009.

Marshall at MEMPHIS (Thursday)...UM has drawn no inspiration from playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, going just 3-11 vs. spread vs. FBS foes since 2009 (0-3 TY). Marshall needs to win final two games to become bowl eligible.

Arizona at ARIZONA STATE...Underdog 6-1 last 7 in this heated instate rivalry. Nightmare game for U of A LY, as Wildcats had a PAT blocked after a late TD, forcing OT; then had tying PAT blocked in second OT, giving ASU a 30-29 win. Nine of last 11 in series have gone "under."

Southern Miss at UAB...Double-revenge game for USM, which has suffered back-to-back upsets vs. UAB after winning previous 9 meetings. Golden Eagles outgained Blazers 582-464, but committed 4 TOs in wild 50-49 double-OT loss in Hattiesburg LY.

Akron at BUFFALO...UB looking for some revenge after its 3-game series win streak was snapped in LY's 22-14 loss at Akron, which was Zips only victory of season.

Louisville at CONNECTICUT...Year ago, UConn was forced to go with unproven backup QB RS frosh Michael Box due to suspension of then-starter Cody Endres in 26-0 whitewash at Louisville. Home team has covered 5 of last 7 in series.

Georgia Tech at DUKE...GT had won and covered 5 straight in series until narrowly missing in LY's 30-20 home victory as a 101/2-pt. favorite. Duke led 13-6 at half before GT cranked up the flexbone by scoring 17 unanswered points in 3rd Q in 10-pt. victory.

Virginia at FLORIDA STATE...UVA's first trip to Tallahassee since 2006, but Cavs have been outscored 86-3 in first H of previous 4 visits! FSU dominated "pits" in LY's 34-14 romp in Charlottesville, outrushing UVA 256-24.

Indiana at MICHIGAN STATE...First meeting since 2008, but MSU has covered 6 of previous 7 meetings from 2002-08.

Lsu at OLE MISS...Ole Miss is surprisingly 8-1 vs. spread last 9 as an underdog in series, including LY's 43-36 loss in Baton Rouge. Rebels led 37-36 before LSU scored game winner on a 7-yd. TD run with just :44 to go!

Vanderbilt at TENNESSEE...Vandy revved to capture 2nd series win in last 28 meetings. Last 5 in series have gone "under."

Kansas State at TEXAS...KSU has pulled off 3 straight upsets vs. UT, including 39-14 victory in Manhattan LY. Wildcats' crafty HC Bill Snyder unexpectedly gave QB Collin Klein his first collegiate start vs. Horns, and he passed with flying colors, rushing for game-high 127 yds. & 2 TDs.

Colorado at UCLA...UCLA HC Rick Neuheisel was CU head honcho from 1995-98, while Buffs new HC John Embree served as Bruin assistant for 2 seasons (2003-04). Horrible-traveling CU (23 straight losses outside home state) 0-9 as away dog L2Ys.

Texas Tech at MISSOURI...Payback-minded Mizzou claimed it was emotionally spent following back-to-back games vs. Oklahoma and Nebraska in LY's 24-17 upset loss in Lubbock. Tigers have 31 Texans on squad, including QB James Franklin & 1000-yd. rusher Henry Josey.

Clemson at NORTH CAROLINA STATE...Visitor is 10-1 vs. spread last 11 in series.

Western Kentucky at NORTH TEXAS...WKU sky high to end 4-game series losing streak, especially recalling 33-6 home thumping LY. Toppers still peeved that Mean Green's star RB Dunbar scored on 10-yd. run rather than UNT taking knee with :38 left.

Minnesota at NORTHWESTERN...There is no place like the road in this series, with visitor going 12-2 vs. spread last 14. Five of last 7 in series have gone "over."

Penn State at OHIO STATE...Scandal-plagued Penn State in rare double-revenge mode vs. Ohio State. In LY's 38-14 defeat at "The Shoe," Nittany Lions led 14-3 at half, but QB Matthew McGloin threw two int. returns for TDs in second-half of 24-pt. loss.

Tulane at RICE...Rice bitterly recalls how Tulane scored winning TD on 73-yd. pass play with 1:46 on clock in LY's 54-49 loss in Superdome.

Cincinnati at RUTGERS...RU defense out to make amends following 69-38 road defeat LY (most pts. allowed by Knights since 80-7 debacle at WV in 2000). RU bitterly recalls how Cincy's starting QB Zach Collaros threw 4-yd. TD pass with 5:17 to play.

Maryland at WAKE FOREST...Bowl-seeking WF (one more win) has circled this one following 62-14 blowout at College Park LY. After trailing just 10-7 in 2nd-Q, Deacons allowed 45 unanswered points, aided by 2 blocked punts and 2 int. returns for TDs.

New Mexico at WYOMING...Revenge-minded Wyo outgained Lobos 536-430 LY, but had 4 TOs (none for NM) in 34-31 setback in Albuquerque, which is one of only three NM wins since 2009. Lobos booted game-winning 38-yd. FG as time expired.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB | MIAMI at S FLORIDA
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, after playing 3 straight conference games
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
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CFB | TOLEDO at C MICHIGAN
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (TOLEDO) with an incredible offense - averaging 6.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games
67-34 since 1997. ( 66.3% | 0.0 units )
9-5 this year. ( 64.3% | 0.0 units )
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CFB | KENTUCKY at GEORGIA
Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in weeks 10 through 13
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, November 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Ohio - 8:00 PM ET Ohio -7 500

Bowling Green - Over 60 500

Western Michigan - 8:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) +1 500

Miami (Ohio) - Over 61 500

[StarDust Bum]

Virginia Tech aims for 6th straight win Thursday

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (6-4)
at VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (9-1)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Virginia Tech -10.5, Total: 47

No. 8 Virginia Tech goes for its sixth straight win when it hosts North Carolina on Thursday night. The Hokies now control their own destiny in the ACC Coastal Division, leading Virginia by one game with two games left on the schedule. Virginia and Virginia Tech meet next week in what could determine the division champion.

The Hokies were impressive in beating then-No. 20 Georgia Tech last Thursday, 37-26, but that was just their second ATS win over an FBS school this year (2-7 ATS). UNC had a terrible day at NC State in its last game on Nov. 5, losing 13-0 and watching starting QB Bryn Renner get knocked out of the game with a concussion. But the bye week gave Renner time to recover and he will start on Thursday night. And history shows that the Tar Heels are usually able to get their offense back on track after a low scoring game, going 13-2 ATS (87%) after playing a game where 24 total points or less were scored, since 1992. And the last time UNC visited Blacksburg in 2009 as a 14.5-point underdog, not only did the Heels cover, but they also won the game outright, 20-17. Don’t expect them to pull out another SU victory against the surging Hokies, but NORTH CAROLINA is the pick to win ATS.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Tar Heels.

Play Against - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (VIRGINIA TECH) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). (26-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Renner leads the ACC and ranks seventh in the nation in passing efficiency (164.70), thanks mostly to completing 71.4% of his passes. His last game was the first time he had failed to throw a touchdown pass all year, totaling 19 TD and 11 INT on the year. Senior WR Dwight Jones has been his go-to receiver, gaining 80+ yards in eight of 10 games this year and totaling 63 catches for 913 yards and 8 TD. Jones has been kept out of the end zone in three straight games though. Freshman RB Giovani Bernard has 1,012 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) and 11 TD, but has been limited to 91 yards on 29 carries (3.1 YPC) in his past two road games.

Defensively, UNC has been strong in stopping the run (108 YPG, 18th in nation), but has struggled in the passing game (248 YPG, 90th in nation). The Heels have a brutal turnover margin of minus-8 in their past three defeats.

Although Carolina won its last trip to Blacksburg, the Hokies prevailed in each of the other six meetings (4-2 ATS) as ACC foes. Tech RB David Wilson rushed for 175 yards in last week’s win at Georgia Tech and now leads the nation with 1,360 yards on the season. He is riding a streak of seven consecutive games of gaining at least 120 rushing yards. Junior QB Logan Thomas has also played outstanding football during the five-game win streak, throwing for 1,257 yards (251 YPG), 10 TD and 2 INT. Thomas has orchestrated five straight 400-yard performances for this offense.

Despite allowing 26 points and 243 rushing yards to Georgia Tech, the Hokies still rank eighth in the country in scoring defense (16.5 PPG) and 11th in total defense (303 YPG). A big part of this success has come from the relentless front four. Virginia Tech, despite numerous key injuries, ranks fifth in the nation in sacks, tallying 3.2 per game. That’s not good news for UNC and Renner, who has been sacked 22 times this year, including 14 times in the past five games.

[StarDust Bum]

Oklahoma State seeks 11th straight road win Friday

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (10-0)
at IOWA STATE CYCLONES (5-4)

Kickoff: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma State -26.5, Total: 66.5

No. 2 Oklahoma State looks to stay unbeaten heading into next week’s showdown with Oklahoma, when it travels to Ames, IA for a Friday night matchup with Iowa State on senior night.

OSU keeps rolling, pummeling Texas Tech 66-6 in Lubbock last week for its 10th straight road win. QB Brandon Weeden has 23 TD (11 to Justin Blackmon) and 3 INT in Big 12 play. After allowing 42.8 PPG during a four-game losing skid, Iowa State has allowed a total of 17 points during a two-game win streak, and the team is fresh coming off a bye week. However, the last three times Oklahoma State was favored over ISU, the Cowboys won big each game: 36-7, 59-17 and 34-8 in 2009. OSU is 8-2 ATS this year and is outscoring opponents by a healthy 25.4 PPG margin. This includes a whopping 24.0 PPG on the road. Iowa State will put forth a great effort, but its inability to both rush the passer (94th in FBS in sacks) and stop the run (203 YPG, 104th in nation) will allow the OSU offensive juggernaut to post another 50-point game. The pick here is OKLAHOMA STATE to win and cover the beefed-up spread.

This pair of rare five-star FoxSheets trends also side with the Cowboys.

Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OKLAHOMA STATE) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games, with an experienced QB returning as starter. (37-7 since 1992.) (84.1%, +29.3 units. Rating = 5*).

OKLAHOMA STATE is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 43.1, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 5*).

This OSU offense is just incredible, ranking second in FBS in scoring (51.7 PPG) and third in total offense (565 YPG). Weeden (364 passing YPG) and Blackmon (14 rec. TD, T-1st in nation) have been outstanding for two seasons now, but another key to this brilliant offense has been sophomore RB Joseph Randle. He is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and has scored 12 of his 23 touchdowns in the past four games. Despite the eye-popping numbers, the Cowboys are very smart and disciplined in their attack, leading the nation in turnover margin at +18.

To be fair, this +18 number has more to do with a talented, playmaking defense with 34 takeaways (19 INT, 15 fumble recoveries), which is six more than any other team in the country. Senior DL Jamie Blatnick leads the front four with a team-high seven sacks, while LB James Thomas and DB Broderick Brown each have four interceptions.

The Cyclones have shown their resolve with two straight victories on the heels of four straight losses to start the Big 12 slate. The biggest reason for the turnaround has been dual-threat freshman QB Jared Barnett who has racked up 536 total yards (319 passing, 217 rushing) during the two victories. Although he’s only thrown two picks in his 100 pass attempts this year, Barnett still needs to improve his accuracy (49% completion rate). RB James White leads the team with 618 rushing yards and 7 TD, but he has only two games of 65+ rushing yards all season (148 at Baylor and 138 at Texas Tech).

Despite the defensive improvement the past two games, Iowa State still ranks 91st in total defense (420 YPG) and 81st in scoring (29.8 PPG). On the positive side, the Cyclones rank second in the conference in passing defense, allowing just 217 YPG in the pass-happy Big 12. Turnovers have killed this team all year, as only 10 FBS teams have a worse turnover rate than the -0.89 per game the Cyclones have tallied (15 takeaways, 23 giveaways).

[StarDust Bum]

No. 16 Nebraska visits No. 18 Michigan

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (8-2)
at MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (8-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Michigan -3.5, Total: 51

No. 16 Nebraska travels to the Big House to face No. 18 Michigan in a key game to help determine the Legends Division representative in this year’s inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.

Both of these teams are 8-2, but Michigan has played a much softer conference schedule (Purdue, Iowa, Illinois) than Nebraska has (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State). Playing in opposing stadiums doesn’t faze the battle-tested Huskers, who are 15-7 ATS (68%) on the road since 2008. And even with Michigan’s win at struggling Illinois last week, the Wolverines are still 2-12 ATS in the second half of the season since 2009. The pick here is NEBRASKA to win and cover in Ann Arbor.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also support the Huskers.

MICHIGAN is 5-17 ATS (22.7%, -13.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MICHIGAN 28.2, OPPONENT 31.1 - (Rating = 2*).

NEBRASKA is 8-1 ATS (88.9%, +6.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEBRASKA 28.5, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 1*).

This game features two teams that love to run the football, as Michigan ranks 11th in the nation with 236 rushing YPG and Nebraska isn’t far behind at 13th (233 YPG). Both QBs have struggled in the passing game as the Huskers’ Taylor Martinez has thrown 10 TD and 7 INT, while Wolverines QB Denard Robinson has tossed 13 TD and 13 INT.

Nebraska star RB Rex Burkhead tweaked his ankle in last week’s win at Penn State, but is expected to start against Michigan. Burkhead ranks third in the Big Ten in rushing (107 YPG) and is second in the conference with 16 touchdowns. Michigan has a decent run defense (131 YPG, 41st in nation), but the Wolverines were especially stingy last week in holding Illinois to 37 yards on 33 carries.

Michigan QB Denard Robinson has fizzled down the stretch, averaging just 192 total YPG in his past four contests. To put this number in perspective, Robinson averaged 329 total YPG last year. He’s also dealing with a sprained wrist that forced him to miss most of the second half against Illinois. However, head coach Brady Hoke said that Robinson has been throwing fine in practice and the injury won’t be a factor in Saturday’s game. Robinson’s yardage decline can also be attributed to the spike in play for junior RB Fitzgerald Toussaint, who has rushed for 420 yards on 6.7 YPC with four total touchdowns in the past three weeks.

Michigan is better served trying to run the football with Toussaint and Robinson, considering the Huskers are average against the run (161 YPG, 66th in FBS) and strong in pass defense (191 YPG, 21st in nation). Nebraska has also had trouble entering opposing backfields, ranking 117th in the country in Tackles For Loss (3.9 per game).

[StarDust Bum]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 12

Southern Miss Eagles at UAB Blazers (+23, 62.5)

Why Southern Miss will cover: USM is 7-1 ATS in its last eight, and UAB is outmatched in every phase, ranking in the bottom 25 in every defensive category.

Why UAB will cover: The Blazers may not win, but they can come close enough, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight. A passing game that ranks 54th has kept them around.

Points: USM should score big, and UAB is a good catch-up team.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Tech Hokies (-10.5, 47)

Why North Carolina will cover: The Hokies are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Virginia Tech likes to run, and UNC is 18th nationally at stopping it. The offense is good enough to keep the team in the game.

Why Virginia Tech will cover: The defense has stifled better offenses and the Hokies average 226 yards passing and 207 yards rushing, putting a lot of pressure on a mediocre UNC unit. Plus, who’s going to go against the Hokies at home, at night?

Points: The over has hit in three of UNC’s last four and is 3-1-1 for VT lately.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (+26.5, 66)

Why Oklahoma State will cover: The Cowboys are on a roll ATS, 8-1 in their last nine. The offense, which ranks No. 2 in scoring and passing, has overwhelmed everyone, and ISU isn’t particularly great at stopping it. The Cyclones are 2-6 ATS in its last eight Big 12 games.

Why Iowa State will cover: The Cyclones can run the ball, averaging 183 ypg. Keeping OSU’s offense off the field is critical.

Points: Despite the high-scoring offense, the under has been the trend for OSU games, as well as ISU.

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (-28.5, 53)

Why Indiana will cover: Michigan State prefers to throw more than run and Indiana, if it has a strength, it’s pass defense.

Why Michigan State will cover: MSU ranks 12th or higher in every defensive category, so it’s a mystery how the Hoosiers will get into the end zone. The Spartans offense has scored 28 or more four of the last five weeks.

Points: The over has hit in IU’s last five and in three of MSU’s last four.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines (-2.5, 50.5)

Why Nebraska will cover: The Huskers are 12th in rushing and the defense has improved by leaps and bounds lately.

Why Michigan will cover: The Wolverines, meanwhile, are 13th in rushing. But unlike Nebraska (66th), Michigan is adept at also stopping the ground game, ranking 36th.

Points: The under is 6-2 when Michigan has been a favorite and has hit four straight for both teams. There’s going to be a lot of running the rock.

Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini (+14, 52)

Why Wisconsin will cover: The Badgers control their own Big Ten destiny, and appear back on track after a two-week hiccup. They rank No. 4 in scoring (46.5 ppg) and No. 6 in scoring defense (15.8 ppg). They do half that well and they’ll cover.

Why Illinois will cover: The Illini has been solid at slowing down opponent rushing attacks. If they can do it and get their own ground attack going, anything can happen.

Points: The over has hit in six of the last eight meetings, though the under has hit in Illinois’ last four.

Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs (-30.5, 48)

Why Kentucky will cover: The Wildcats must win their final two games to become bowl eligible. They should at least give it their all. The defense is good enough to hang around.

Why Georgia will cover: Georgia should stifle UK’s offense in every way and its own balanced offense may simply be too much. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall and as favorites.

Points: The under is 5-2 in UGA’s last seven but the over is 4-1 in UK’s last five.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils (+10.5, 55)

Why Georgia Tech will cover: Duke can only move the ball through the air, and GT’s defensive strength is slowing the pass (16th). Duke’s depth isn’t conducive to Tech’s punishing run attack.

Why Duke will cover: Four of Duke’s seven losses have come by 10 points or less. The team passes a lot.

Points: The under is 10-2-1 in Duke’s last 13 and hit in four straight for GT before last week’s over (by 1.5 points).

SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars (-19.5, 77.5)

Why SMU will cover: While not as explosive as Houston, SMU can throw the ball (18th in passing) and has the potential to erupt.

Why Houston will cover: Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five despite spreads of 24 or more the last four. The Cougars score fast and often and don’t let up.

Points: Houston has scored 56 or more four straight games, and SMU can do its part when it’s on.

Clemson Tigers at North Carolina State Wolfpack (+7.5, 52.5)

Why Clemson will cover: The Tigers have the firepower on offense to run away from the Wolfpack. And once they get a lead, their 20th-ranked pass defense will do the rest.

Why North Carolina State will cover: Clemson lost and barely won in its last two games after the strong start; perhaps NC State found a chink that can help keep the game close. The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, for what it’s worth.

Points: The under is 4-0 in NC State last four.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5, 39)

Why Penn State will cover: All distractions aside, the Lions’ defense stills ranks No. 3 in scoring (12.9 ppg) and No. 5 against the pass (167.7 ypg).

Why Ohio State will cover: The Buckeyes had won three in a row before last week’s debacle at Purdue. Still, OSU appears on the way up, and Penn State certainly does not.

Points: Both teams struggle mightily on offense, but that number is pretty low. The over has hit in OSU’s last three.

Colorado State Rams at TCU Horned Frogs (-33, 58)

Why Colorado State will cover: While the Rams haven’t been great, they’ve been in all but one game this season (Boise St.).

Why TCU will cover: TCU is 23rd in rushing (208 ypg), while CSU is 113th at stopping it. CSU is 2-9 ATS in its last 11.

Points: The over is 8-2 in TCU’s last 10, and is unlikely to be slowed on this day.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks (-13, 53.5)

Why Mississippi State will cover: MSU’s defense is a solid 14th against the pass, matching up with Arkansas’ offensive strength. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four.

Why Arkansas will cover: The Razorbacks’ offense has run around the competition lately, and the team is 4-2 ATS in its last six. An underrated defense ranks 30th in points allowed, and MSU struggles to score anyway.

Points: The under is 6-2 in MSU’s last eight, but the over is 6-2 in Arkansas’ last eight.

Boston College Eagles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-24.5, 47.5)

Why Boston College will cover: The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. B.C. will try to run the ball, shortening the game.

Why Notre Dame will cover: Notre Dame has no major strengths, but no major weaknesses, either. Boston College’s defense is ordinary, but the offense has been unproductive. Notre Dame faced similar spreads in two of its last three games, and covered both.

Points: The under is 5-0-1 in B.C.’s last six, and Notre Dame’s defense has improved of late.

LSU Tigers at Mississippi Rebels (+28.5, 46.5)

Why LSU will cover: Ole Miss has given up on the season and its coach, who has resigned effective at the end of the season. It’s hard to imagine the Rebels’ anemic offense scoring on the Tigers’ second-ranked defense.

Why Mississippi will cover: Maybe LSU comes in bored. Or maybe the Rebels’ new QB and RB – the usual starters are suspended – provide some spark.

Points: The under has been hitting for both teams of late.

Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles (-17, 47)

Why Virginia will cover: The Cavs have covered in four of their last five, led by a ground game that milks the clock and a defense that’s allowed 13-21 points in five of the last six.

Why Florida State will cover: The Seminoles’ strengths — pass offense, run defense — match up perfectly with Virginia’s weaknesses — pass defense, run offense.

Points: The under is 7-1 in Virginia’s last eight, 3-0 in FSU’s last three and 8-0 in the last eight meetings.

Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs (+18.5, 55.5)

Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos have something to prove after the last-second loss to TCU. The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last six.

Why San Diego State will cover: Boise State is faltering, 0-3 ATS in its last three. And the Aztecs do average 190 rushing and 218 passing per game.

Points: Boise State is due to for another breakout, and the over is 5-0 in its last five. SDSU can score, too.

USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks (-15.5, 67)

Why USC will cover: USC is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 on the road, and while Oregon’s run offense is great (fifth), USC’s run defense (eighth) is also strong. The Trojans’ passing game has the potential to overpower anyone.

Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks are 5-1-1 ATS, including last week’s beatdown of Stanford. USC’s pass defense is 100th, and Oregon’s offense will prevent the Trojans from focusing on one thing.

Points: It could be an entertaining shootout.

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (+15.5, 75)

Why Oklahoma will cover: Oklahoma’s offense is just as powerful, and more balanced, than Baylor’s, and the defense is light years better. The road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Why Baylor will cover: Baylor’s passing offense is sixth nationally (357 ypg), while OU is 71st at stopping it. The Bears are just 1-3 on the road, but undefeated at home.

Points: Both teams should struggle to stop the other. The over is 6-1-1 for Baylor and 5-2 in OU’s last seven.

Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns (-9.5, 53.5)

Why Kansas State will cover: No ranked team has been more disrespected by the pollsters than K-State, but the Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine. The team can run the ball (22nd) and stop the run (26th), and it’s worked.

Why Texas will cover: The Longhorns are even better at running the ball (15th) and stopping the run (10th), and are at home, at night. Plus, Texas can also throw the ball and play pass defense, something K-State has been unable to do with consistency.

Points: Both teams can score, but both like to use a clock-draining ground game to do it.

California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal (-19, 55.5)

Why California will cover: Stanford still struggles to slow the pass, which is Cal’s strength on offense. The Bears are decent across the board on defense. Not great, but decent.

Why Stanford will cover: Stanford had covered every game until last week’s loss to Oregon. The Cardinal is stronger on both sides of the ball than the Bears, and should come out fired up.

Points: While Stanford has been hitting the over, the under is 7-0 in Cal’s last seven.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Thursday's games

Virginia Tech won six of last seven games vs North Carolina, with dogs covering three of last four. Hokies won last five games overall- they are 0-4 as home favorites this year, wth home wins by 19-3-16 points, and a loss to Clemson. Carolina lost three of last four games, covered one of last five; since 2008, Tar Heels are 5-4 as road underdogs, 0-2 this year. Four of last five Tech games, three of last four UNC games went over the total. Double digit home favorites are 6-5 in ACC games this season.

Memphis is horrible, 1-8 vs D-I teams, losing home games by 45-42-18-6 points; they led last game 35-17 in 4th quarter and still lost. Tigers are 2-7 as underdogs this year, 0-4 at home- they're 3-11 in last 14 games as a home dog. Marshall won last three series games, by 15-1-11 points, as dogs covered all three games; Herd won 27-16 in last visit here, only win by a visitor in last six series games. Thundering Herd is 1-5 on road this year, with only win 17-13 as Louisville (+10.5). C-USA underdogs of 9+ points are 1-8 against the spread at home this season.

UAB won last two games vs Southern Mississippi, after losing previous nine series games; Eagles won five of last visits here, losing 30-17 in last visit two years ago. Blazers won LY's game 50-49, after trailing big early. UAB is 1-3 at home this year, losing by 39-18-43 points; they're 1-2 as home underdogs this year, 5-5-1 under Calloway. C-USA underdogs of 9+ points are 1-8 against the spread at home this season. Eagles won last eight games, covering six of last seven; since '03, they're 19-8 as favorites on foreign soil. Over is 5-2 in last seven USM games, 3-1 in UAB's last four contests.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, November 17

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What bettors need to know: Thursday's Top 25 NCAAF action
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Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at UAB Blazers (+23, 61.5)

THE STORY: No. 20 Southern Miss appears to be on a collision course with 10th-ranked Houston for the Conference USA Championship Game, but both teams still have work left to do. The Cougars have tough games remaining against SMU and Tulsa, while the Golden Eagles merely have to win one of their final two games against bottom-feeders Alabama-Birmingham and Memphis. Southern Miss has won eight straight games since a slip-up at Marshall in Week 2, which is tied for coach Larry Fedora’s longest winning streak since he took over in 2008.

Southern Miss won the first nine meetings in this series, but Alabama-Birmingham has claimed the last two games, including last season’s 50-49 double-overtime win.

TV: CBS Sports Network

LINE MOVES: Southern Miss opened at -21 and has been bet up to -23.

ABOUT SOUTHERN MISS (9-1, 5-1 Conference USA, 7-3 ATS): The Golden Eagles are off to their best start since 1962, and another win would be only their third 10-win season in school history and first since 1988. Last weekend, Southern Miss barely escaped with a 30-29 home win over Central Florida, which scored a touchdown as time expired but then failed on a two-point conversion that would’ve won the game. The Golden Eagles limited UCF to only 48 yards rushing, holding an opponent under 100 yards on the ground for the fifth time this season. Southern Miss is 20-1 all-time under Fedora when accomplishing that.

ABOUT ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM (2-8, 2-5 Conference USA, 6-4 ATS): The Blazers snapped a two-game skid with a dramatic come-from-behind win at Memphis last weekend. Trailing 35-17 in the fourth-quarter, Alabama-Birmingham reeled off 24 unanswered points to win 41-35 and complete the biggest fourth-quarter comeback in school history. Jonathan Perry tossed two of his four touchdowns in the final period, and Greg Franklin scored on a 10-yard run that proved to be the game-winner with 1:36 left.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. After running back Bruce Johnson and wide receiver Chris Briggs notched their first touchdowns of the season last weekend, a school-record 21 different players have scored for Southern Miss in 2011.

2. Seven of the 11 games in this series have been decided by seven points or less, but the Golden Eagles are 6-1 in those games.

3. Southern Miss ranks 16th nationally in scoring offense (36.8), while the Blazers are 113th in scoring defense (37.2).

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Alabama-Birmingham.
* Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Golden Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.

PREDICTION: Southern Miss 52, Alabama-Birmingham 28. The Blazers have given up at least 49 points three times this season, and this game will likely be the fourth



North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Tech Hokies (-10.5, 47)

THE STORY: No. 7 Virginia Tech controls its own destiny in its pursuit of the ACC championship and the BCS Bowl berth that comes with the trophy. The Hokies made it through one test with a win at Georgia Tech last week and are currently one game ahead of rival Virginia in the ACC Coastal Division. With a visit to the Cavaliers on tap for next weekend, Virginia Tech must first sneak past a dangerous North Carolina team. The Tar Heels looked like they had a chance to make some noise in the ACC until running into a rough patch over the last month with losses in three of their last four games. North Carolina was shut out for the first time in five years on Nov. 5 but has had a bye week to prepare for the Virginia Tech offense. Hokies coach Frank Beamer will be looking for his 250th career win when the Tar Heels visits Blacksburg, Va., on Thursday.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE MOVES: The Hokies opened as high as -11 and have been bet down to -10.5.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (6-4, 2-4 ACC, 4-6 ATS): The Tar Heels expect to have quarterback Bryn Renner healthy on Thursday after the sophomore was knocked out of the 13-0 loss at North Carolina State with a concussion. Renner was coming off his first career 300-yard passing performance in a win over Wake Forest when he ran into trouble against the Wolfpack. North Carolina managed only three rushing yards against NC State and is 72nd in the FBS in rushing average at 144.8 yards.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (9-1, 5-1, 3-7 ATS): The Hokies are aiming for a berth in their fourth ACC Championship game in the last five years. Beamer’s offense is running in high gear lately, going over 400 total yards in five straight, and is coming off a strong performance in a 37-26 victory over Georgia Tech. Sophomore quarterback Logan Thomas passed for three touchdowns and rushed for two more - the second time this season he has totaled five scores in a game.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Hokies are 25-2 in November games since 2004.

2. The last time the schools met on a Thursday in Blacksburg, the Tar Heels came away with a 20-17 victory in 2009.

3. Renner’s father, Bill, was a punter for Virginia Tech.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Hokies are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.

PREDICTION: Hokies 24, Tar Heels 14. Thomas will prove to be too much for the North Carolina defense.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, November 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Southern Mississippi - 8:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi -23 500

Alabama-Birmingham - Under 61 500

North Carolina - 8:00 PM ET North Carolina +9 500

Virginia Tech - Under 47.5 500

Marshall - 8:00 PM ET Memphis +11.5 500

Memphis - Over 50 500

[StarDust Bum]

North Carolina at Virginia Tech

November 17, 2011

Matchup: North Carolina (6-4) at #9 Virginia Tech (9-1)
Venue: Lane Stadium (Natural Grass)
Date: Thursday, Nov. 10
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Line: Virginia Tech -10.5, o/u 47

Thanks to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, my seesaw season on Thursday nights rolls on. Paul Johnson's team had looked very impressive at home this season and I suspected they would be too much for the visitors from Blacksburg, VA. Alas, Virginia Tech got a strong game from David Wilson on the ground and solid effort from their defense and were able to put a strangle hold on the coastal division of the ACC.

This week we will stick with the Hokies and head over to Blacksburg as head coach Frank Beamer welcomes the North Carolina Tar Heels to town.

Advertisement



UNC is coming off a bye and the extra rest couldn't have come at a better time for the program. After starting the season 5-1, the Tar Heels have dropped three of their last four games. The low point for UNC came in their most recent game, on Nov. 5 against NC State. Carolina was blanked 13-0 by a pretty pedestrian Wolfpack squad in a game where the team looked listless.

If the bye week wasn't able to recharge the batteries for the Tar Heels, it could be a long night for the visitors from North Carolina. After beating Georgia Tech, the Hokies know they are a couple of steps away from returning to the ACC Championship game and likely a chance to seek revenge against Clemson.

The Tigers are the only team to beat Virginia Tech and they did it in convincing fashion with a 23-3 win in Blacksburg on Oct. 1. In that game, Clemson executed a very efficient offense and combined that with a devastating effort on defense to suffocate the Hokies.

That combination is something that - on a good day - North Carolina is capable of bringing to the field. Most talent evaluators recognize that North Carolina has a ton of NFL talent along their defensive front seven. Players such as DE Quinton Coples will definitely be playing on Sunday afternoons soon enough and if Virginia Tech isn't up for the challenge, the Heels could make things interesting Thursday night.

On offense, Carolina features QB Bryn Renner, a sophomore who is still learning the nuances of the college game. Throwing for 227.1 yards per game while completing 71.4% of his passes, Renner has shown flashes of brilliance with 19 TDs but also plenty of rookie mistakes with 11 INTs in 10 games. The youngster has also taken his fair share of bumps and bruises lately as he's been sacked 22 times this season, including 14 in the last five games.

The other side of the coin for the UNC offense is RB Giovani Bernard. The talented back is third in the ACC in rushing with just over 100 yards a game and second in the conference with 11 rushing TDs. Behind a North Carolina offensive line which averages 6-5, 319 pounds, Bernard is typically provided with plenty of holes to run through.

If Renner can eliminate the mistakes and be efficient with his passes and Bernard can establish an effective running game, North Carolina could definitely make this game interesting. Remember, UNC won on their last trip to Blacksburg, defeating the Hokies 20-17 in 2009.

That said, on senior night in Lane Stadium, with the Hokies eyeing another return to the ACC Championship game, it's hard to believe we will see much less than the best effort from Beamer's program. If that is the case, UNC will have a hard time matching the home team.

Betting Notes:


Virginia Tech has gone 3-7 ATS
VT has gone 4-1 SU and 1-4 ATS at home this season, the lone cover coming against Appalachian State (66-13)
The Hokies are 1-5 ATS as double-digit favorites this season
North Carolina is 4-6 ATS
The Tar Heels are 1-3 both SU and ATS on the road, all three losses by double digits
Virginia Tech has won 6 of the last 7 meetings (4-3 ATS) against North Carolina
The Hokies have been double-digit favorites in five of these games, only covering twice
The 'under' has gone 6-1 during this run

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch - Week 12

November 16, 2011


Saturday - Cincinnati at Rutgers (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Cincy tasted defeat for the first time since Week 2 when West Virginia went into Paul Brown Stadium and won a 24-21 decision last Saturday. Making matters worse, the Bearcats lost QB Zach Collaros for the rest of the regular season with a broken ankle. Therefore, Munchie Legaux will get the starting nod under center. Look for him to look to RB Isaian Pead early and often. Pead ran for 113 yard and two TDs against WVU and for the season, he's tallied 934 rushing yards and 10 TDs with a 6.0 YPC average. Rutgers owns an 18-14 sporead record as a home 'dog under Greg Schiano. The 'under' is 8-2 overall for RU, 4-2 in its home games. The 'under' is 5-4 overall for the Bearcats. Most books are listing Cincy as a three-point 'chalk' with a total of 47 ½.




Saturday - Wisconsin at Illinois (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Most spots are listing Wisconsin as a 14 ½-point favorite with a total of 51 ½. The Badgers fell to 0-3 ATS on the road when they failed to cover the number in last week's 42-13 win at Minnesota as 29 ½-point favorites. Brett Bielema's team is led by QB Russell Wilson, who has 25 TD passes and merely three interceptions. The transfer from N.C. St. has also rushed for 295 yards and four TDs. Junior RB Montee Ball has rushed for 1,242 yards and 23 TDs, while James White has 611 rushing yards and six scores. Illinois won its first six games but is in the midst of a four-game losing streak that has head coach Ron Zook under fire once again. Zook's situation was made more tenuous when LB Trulon Henry was shot in the hand this past Saturday night at a party. Henry wasn't even at the party but was called there by a teammate to give several players a ride home after a fight broke out. When asked about his future at a Tuesday presser, Zook walked out on the media. As a home 'dog under Zook, Illinois owns a 7-7 spread record. The 'over' is 7-3 overall for the Badgers, 2-1 in their three true road games. The 'under' is 7-3 overall for the Illinis, 5-2 in its home games.




Saturday - Mississippi State at Arkansas (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Most books are listing Arkansas as a 13-point favorite with a total of 53 ½. The big news out of Fayetteville this week is that junior RB Knile Davis, considered out for the season since breaking his ankle in August, practiced in pads Tuesday and might be able to play soon. Bobby Petrino's team isn't getting much hype as a potential national-title contender, but it still has an outside shot. In fact, all it has to do is win out and hope that Auburn can pull a stunning upset over Alabama in the Iron Bowl that will be held on The Plains. Arkansas is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home after destroying Tennessee 49-7 as a 15-point 'chalk.' The Hogs are 12-5-1 ATS as home favorites on Petrino's watch. Mississippi St. gave a game effort last week at home only to come up on the short end of a 24-7 decision against Alabama. The Bulldogs did cover the number for the fourth straight game, though, hooking up their backers as 17 ½-point home underdogs. QB Chris Relf suffered a concussion and is a question mark this week, meaning Tyler Russell will get the starting nod. The 'over' is 6-4 overall for the Hogs, 3-3 in their home games, while the 'under' is 6-4 overall for MSU. However, the Bulldogs have seen the 'under' go 3-2 in their road assignments.




Saturday - Virginia at Florida State (ESPN2, 7:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Most books are listing FSU as a 17 ½-point 'chalk' with a total of 47. The Seminoles saw their four-game ATS surge end in last week's 23-19 win over Miami as 11-point home 'chalk.' Virginia has won three in a row and five of its last six to garner what will be its first postseason appearance since 2007. The Cavs are coming off a 31-21 win over Duke as a 9 ½-point home favorite. QB Michael Rocco, who has played much better in recent weeks, threw a pair of TD passes and wasn't intercepted. UVA has been getting solid production from RB Perry Jones, who has 856 rushing yards and five TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC. When these teams met in Charlottesville in 2010, FSU captured a 34-14 win as a 6 ½-point road favorite. Might the 'under' be worth a look in this spot? The 'under' has cashed in nine consecutive head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries. As for this year, UVA has seen the 'under' emerge at a lucrative 8-2 overall clip, while the 'Noles have seen the 'under' go 6-4 overall, 4-2 in their home outings.




Saturday - Boise State at San Diego State (CSTV, 8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Chris Petersen's squad dropped a 36-35 decision vs. TCU last week, ending its 35-game winning streak on the smurf turf at Bronco Stadium. The Broncos gave up the go-ahead score and subsequent two-point conversion with 1:05 remaining. They quickly moved into field-goal range for a potential game-winning field goal but the kick was off the mark. In all three of BSU's losses from 2008-2011, it missed FGs to win the games at crunch time. Nevertheless, Boise St. still has one of the country's premier squads led by senior QB Kellen Moore, who has a 31/5 TD-INT ratio. San Diego St. has one of the nation's most underrated players in RB Ronnie Hillman, who has 1,278 rushing yards and 13 TDs, and QB Ryan Lindley has a 15/6 TD-INT ratio. But the Aztecs' defense will be without one of their best players after senior LB Logan Ketchum went down last week with a season-ending injury. The 'over' is 6-3 overall for BSU, 4-1 in its road assignments. The 'under'




Saturday - Oklahoma at Baylor (ABC-ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

As of Wednesday, most betting shops were listing Oklahoma as a 15 ½-point favorite with a total of 75. The Sooners are coming off an open date following their bittersweet 41-25 win over Texas A&M as 13 ½-point home favorites. The victory was costly because OU lost the school's all-time leading receiver Ryan Broyles to a season-ending knee injury. Nevertheless, we still have a matchup of two of the country's best quarterbacks. OU's Landry Jones has 3,349 passing yards with a 28/9 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. Meanwhile, Baylor's Robert Griffin III is enjoying another incredible campaign, throwing for 3,093 yards and rushing for 489 to date. 'RG3' has 29 TD passes compared to only five interceptions and he's also rushed for five scores. Griffin has one of the Big 12's top wideouts in Kendall Wright, who has 81 receptions for 1,073 yards and nine TDs. The Bears can also run the ball with Terrance Ganaway, who has 880 rushing yards and 10 TDs while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Since 2002, OU owns a 14-20-2 spread record as a road favorite. Meanwhile, Baylor is 3-6 ATS as a home underdog during Art Briles' four-year tenure. The Bears are 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home this season. They have watched the 'over' go 6-1-1 overall, while OU has seen the 'over' go 5-4 overall. Baylor has never beaten Oklahoma in 20 all-time meetings, although the Bears have taken the cash in five of the last eight encounters.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 10 Report - Week 12

November 16, 2011

With only two weeks remaining before the inaugural Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis, the Leaders & Legends divisions are finally taking shape. Wisconsin and Michigan State each control its own destiny while Nebraska, Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State all remain in the hunt. Here's an inside look at each matchup in the Big Ten.

Michigan (-3) vs. Nebraska - 12:00 PM ET, ESPN

MICH: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS - Last week: at Illinois, W 31-14
NEB: 8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS - Last week: at Penn State, W 17-14

Nebraska has won two straight Big Ten games after getting blown out by Wisconsin in its first conference game as a member. The Huskers beat hapless Minnesota (41-14) and a PSU team in turmoil last week (17-14). Neither team controls its own destiny in the Legends division as Michigan State would need to lose one for either to have a chance. But the winner of this game stays alive in the division race and also a shot an at-large BCS bid while the loser is eliminated from both.

This game features two of the top rushing QB's in the nation. Nebraska's Martinez has rushed for 768 yards (5.0) with 9 touchdowns (Nebraska ranks 12th nationally in rush offense). Michigan's Robinson has accumulated 910 rush yards (5.7) with 12 touchdowns (Michigan ranks 13th nationally in rush offense). Both struggle in the passing game, however, and this game will likely come down to which defense can effectively limit the opposing QB's rush yards. Robinson also injured his wrist in last week's win over Illinois, but is fully expected to play here.

Nebraska's "Blackshirts" are allowing 180 rush yards in Big Ten play and have struggled against elite rushing attacks. Michigan is allowing just 108 rush yards per game in Big Ten play and is off of a dominating performance of Illinois. The Wolverines held the Illini to just 37 rush yards on 33 carries (1.1 YPC).

Something to consider: Michigan plays its final two games at home after traveling for four of the previous five. The Wolverines are 6-0 at home this season, winning by 26 PPG (average score 37-11).

Ohio State (-6.5) vs. Penn State - 3:30 PM ET, ABC regional/ESPN

OSU: 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS - Last week: at Purdue, L 23-26 (OT)
PSU: 8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS - Last week: vs. Nebraska, L 14-17

Despite all of the off-field distractions facing Penn State last week, the Nittany Lions performed admirably albeit in a loss against Nebraska. They outgained the Huskers and had a chance to win at the end, but were stopped on downs with 1:55 remaining to seal the defeat. It will be tough for PSU to travel after that emotional home game (their first since 1965 without Joe Paterno as head coach) and play as motivated against an OSU squad off of a loss.

OSU freshman QB Miller is a great raw talent that still makes some bad reads and mistakes. He's completing 50% of his passes this season with eight touchdowns and three interceptions and has rushed for an additional 490 yards and five scores. The offense is limited in its play-calling with him under center and this unit ranks just 108th in total offense and 74th in scoring offense. PSU is, by far, the best defense that Miller will face this season. PSU is allowing just 287 yards per game (8th nationally) and 13 points per game (3rd). Due to a scheduling realignment when Nebraska joined the conference, PSU will visit OSU for the second consecutive year. Last year here, Penn State held a 14-3 lead at halftime before OSU scored 35 unanswered 2nd half points to get the blowout victory. Matt McGloin threw two 2nd half interceptions that were both returned for touchdowns.

Something to consider: OSU has covered seven straight games off of a straight up loss. Penn State is 1-8 SU & ATS in Columbus and is averaging 12 PPG over that span (hasn't scored over 20 points).

Illinois (+14) vs. Wisconsin - 12:00 PM ET, ESPN2

ILL: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Michigan, L 14-31
WISC: 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS - Last week: at Minnesota, W 42-13

Wisconsin won its first road game of the season in dominating fashion last week with a 42-13 beatdown at Minnesota. They had 20 more first downs than Minnesota and a +305 yard advantage. This will be the Badgers' fourth road game in five weeks before finishing the season at home against Penn State. Thanks to help from OSU and PSU last week, the Badgers now control their own destiny and can earn a trip to the Big Ten title game by winning out.

There aren't many weaknesses in this Wisconsin offense. QB Wilson leads FBS in pass efficiency (242 YPG, 73%, 23-5) and Ball leads the FBS in points per game (16.4 points per game!). However, senior leader and top offensive lineman Peter Konz won't play Saturday and could miss the remainder of the regular season.

Illinois has solid defensive rankings across the board (9th total defense & 13 scoring defense), but its offense has been the major problem in the recent four-game skid. Illinois averaged 448 YPG and 35 PPG during its 6-0 start, but is only averaging 288 YPG and 11 PPG during the last four losses. The running game, which carried them the first half of the season, has averaged just 117 YPG (3.1 YPC) the past four. Also, the Illini haven't scored in the first 40 minutes of any game during the losing streak.

Something to consider: These two haven't met since 2008. The home team has won three straight in this series with Illinois winning 31-26 here in 2007. However, Illinois is just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS (including 0-3 last three) in home finales.

Purdue (+2.5) vs. Iowa - 12:00 PM ET, Big Ten Network

PU: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Ohio State, W 26-23 (OT)
IOWA: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Michigan State, L 21-37

Purdue is off of its biggest game of the year, an overtime victory over Ohio State, and will try to bounce back with another home win here against Iowa. Iowa couldn't overcome numerous mistakes last week in a home loss to Michigan State and also lost out on a great opportunity to remain in the hunt in the Legends division. Iowa has dropped five straight road games dating back to last season and is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games. The Hawkeyes are, however, 3-0 ATS this season off of a loss and 11-2-1 ATS the past 14 chances.

The Hawkeyes had two turnovers that turned into 27 & 19 yard touchdown drives for the Spartans last week. Iowa also had a field goal attempt blocked and fumbled at the MSU 8-yard line. Iowa's defense is allowing more points (23.8 PPG) and yards (398 YPG) than it has in the past seven years. The Hawks rank dead last in the Big Ten in pass defense and a big reason for that is lack of a consistent pass rush (only 15 sacks through 10 games).

The Boilers thoroughly dominated the Bucks in the big overtime win last week. They had more first downs and more yards and the defense was able to hold OSU's rushing attack - a strong area for OSU - in check. However, Purdue is still allowing 212 rush yards per game in conference play and they'll have to play well again to slow down Iowa RB Coker. Coker was shutdown by Michigan State last week, but is still averaging 115 rush yards per game with 13 touchdowns this season. As he goes, so does Iowa's offense.

Something to consider: Iowa won the last meeting in 2008 and the Hawks have won four of the past five in the series. The home team is 9-1 (7-3 ATS) last 10 in this series.

Michigan State (-28.5) vs. Indiana - 12:00 PM ET, Big Ten Network

MSU: 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS - Last week: at Iowa, W 37-21
IND: 1-9 SU, 5-5 ATS - Last week: BYE

Michigan State took command of the Big Ten Legends division with a convincing win at Iowa last week. The Spartans now return home to play their final home game of the season. They are 13-0 at home over the previous two seasons and they've also won the last three home meetings with Indiana by 28 points per game.

Surprisingly, MSU has the worst rush-offense in the Big Ten with just 133 rush yards per game (3.7 YPC). The Spartans will likely see more success against this Indiana defense that hasn't stopped anyone this entire season. The Hoosiers are allowing 283 rush yards per game in Big Ten play and 42 points per game to conference opponents.

Indiana is off of a bye and will try to play spoiler to Michigan State here on Saturday. The Hoosiers have been much more competitive the last three weeks since inserting play-making QB Roberson into the starting lineup. Roberson is averaging a pedestrian 180 pass yards per game with 3 touchdowns and 2 picks, but it's his 92 rush yards per game that make him dangerous. He's got the Hoosiers averaging 27 points per game over the previous three games (18 PPG the first seven without him). A bye week can only benefit Indiana and its young QB.

Something to consider: Michigan State is 11-2 straight up in its last 13 against Indiana and 6-1 ATS last seven. However, the Spartans are 0-5 ATS as a Big 10 favorite of 20+.

Northwestern (-15.5) vs. Minnesota - 12:00 PM ET, Big Ten Network


NW: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Rice, W 28-6
MINN: 2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Wisconsin, L 13-42

The Wildcats can clinch bowl eligibility with a win. Hard to believe that this is the same team that was 2-5 and looked completely lost just three weeks ago. This defense that was allowing 32 points per game over the first eight games has allowed a total of 31 points the past two weeks to Nebraska and Rice.

The Wildcats have a potent offensive attack that ranks 26th in total offense and 44th in scoring offense behind QB Persa - the FBS leader in completion percentage. Persa and this Wildcats spread-option offense could have a big day against this Gopher defense that ranks 113th in pass efficiency defense.

Minnesota is off of a crushing 42-13 defeat at home to archrival Wisconsin. The Gophers were absolutely punchless as they had 20 fewer first downs and were outgained by 305 yards. QB Gray didn't play well and coaches indicated after the game that he's dealing with multiple injuries. Whoever starts at QB for the Gophers doesn't really make a difference, as this unit ranks an abysmal 112th in scoring & total offense.

Something to consider: The visitor is 14-2 ATS in this series and the underdog is 6-2 ATS over the previous eight. Northwestern is just 3-10 ATS as a conference home favorite.