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This is only my second week posting and I went 1-3 last week.
Houston -3 over TB
-TB's defense stinks. They rank dead last in YPPA (Yards per play allowed). Yes, worse than both the inept defense of the Rams and Colts.
Minnesota +14 over GB
These GB lines are getting out of control. GB's defense is bad ranking in the bottom 10 in both yards per rush and yards per pass attempt allowed. Minnesota ranks 3rd in rush offense (5.2 YPR) and should be able to run all over GB ranking 24th in rush defense (4.6 YPR allowed). Divisional dogs of 10+ are 54-40-4 ATS this decade.
Seattle +7 over Baltimore and under 41 (separate plays)
Both offenses are pathetic and both defenses are solid with Baltimore having an edge in pass defense. This is an inflated line. Seattle has an extra edge at home, they are 50-38-1 ATS this decade and the O/U is 40-48-1.
Arizona +14 over Philadelphia
I don't actually have this line yet but I'm seeing that it's going to right around 14. This is a pure value play. I know everyone is expecting Philadelphia to become the all star team they were hyped up to be but it hasn't happened yet and I'm not going to just assume that starts now. I wouldn't be shocked to see a blowout but based on the stats so far this season, this line should be closer to Arizona +7. Take the free points.
Pitt -3 1/2 over Cincinnati
Baltimore has had Pittsburgh's number this year but I strongly believe Pittsburgh is a much better team. In fact, I'm tempted to say they have a good shot of winning the Super Bowl if they keep up this level of play. They rank above average to elite in every category except turnovers which hasn't been an issue for them since week 4. Andy Dalton has been great so far, but their schedule has been very easy and he has yet to face a pass defense even close to the caliber of Pittsburgh. Statistically, this line is probably about right but I believe Dalton will finally get put his place come Sunday.
NE +1 over NYJ
Three weeks ago this line would have been something like NE -4. I don't think much has changed. Actually I do, NE's defense has gotten better. NYG boasted the third best pass offense in the league right below the Pats prior to last week. NE held them to 0 points in the first half. Progress is being made just like it was in the latter half of last year. Sanchez has finally turned it around! How many times have we heard that story? NE's fading away! How many times have we heard that? This is a great setup for good line value.
Lean only
St. Louis +2.5
Houston -3 over TB
-TB's defense stinks. They rank dead last in YPPA (Yards per play allowed). Yes, worse than both the inept defense of the Rams and Colts.
Minnesota +14 over GB
These GB lines are getting out of control. GB's defense is bad ranking in the bottom 10 in both yards per rush and yards per pass attempt allowed. Minnesota ranks 3rd in rush offense (5.2 YPR) and should be able to run all over GB ranking 24th in rush defense (4.6 YPR allowed). Divisional dogs of 10+ are 54-40-4 ATS this decade.
Seattle +7 over Baltimore and under 41 (separate plays)
Both offenses are pathetic and both defenses are solid with Baltimore having an edge in pass defense. This is an inflated line. Seattle has an extra edge at home, they are 50-38-1 ATS this decade and the O/U is 40-48-1.
Arizona +14 over Philadelphia
I don't actually have this line yet but I'm seeing that it's going to right around 14. This is a pure value play. I know everyone is expecting Philadelphia to become the all star team they were hyped up to be but it hasn't happened yet and I'm not going to just assume that starts now. I wouldn't be shocked to see a blowout but based on the stats so far this season, this line should be closer to Arizona +7. Take the free points.
Pitt -3 1/2 over Cincinnati
Baltimore has had Pittsburgh's number this year but I strongly believe Pittsburgh is a much better team. In fact, I'm tempted to say they have a good shot of winning the Super Bowl if they keep up this level of play. They rank above average to elite in every category except turnovers which hasn't been an issue for them since week 4. Andy Dalton has been great so far, but their schedule has been very easy and he has yet to face a pass defense even close to the caliber of Pittsburgh. Statistically, this line is probably about right but I believe Dalton will finally get put his place come Sunday.
NE +1 over NYJ
Three weeks ago this line would have been something like NE -4. I don't think much has changed. Actually I do, NE's defense has gotten better. NYG boasted the third best pass offense in the league right below the Pats prior to last week. NE held them to 0 points in the first half. Progress is being made just like it was in the latter half of last year. Sanchez has finally turned it around! How many times have we heard that story? NE's fading away! How many times have we heard that? This is a great setup for good line value.
Lean only
St. Louis +2.5
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