The Bum's Wednesday's NCAAB & NHL Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

No. 16 Arizona hosts Duquesne Wednesday

DUQUESNE DUKES (0-0)

ARIZONA WILDCATS (1-0)


2K Classic - Opening Round
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Arizona -8.5, Total: 149

A new-look Arizona team tipped off its 2011-2012 campaign against Valparaiso last week, and aims to remain undefeated against another mid-major in Duquesne.

The No. 16 Wildcats will miss the production of last year’s two leading scorers, including lottery pick Derrick Williams, but they found new ways to rack up points in their opener on the back of senior forward Jesse Perry who notched a double-double. Although Arizona finished last season on a streak of four consecutive ATS wins, this squad is clearly having a tough time adjusting. They struggled in their win against Valparaiso, taking an ATS loss. Under head coach Ron Everhart Duquesne is 5-0 in season-opening games, and sports a high-octane offense that has led the A-10 in scoring three times during his tenure. Arizona may squeak out the win in the game, but play on DUQUESNE for the cover, as the Wildcats will need to adjust to a fast tempo and a well-coached team.

This FoxSheets trend also likes the Dukes to cover.

ARIZONA is 1-9 ATS (10.0%, -8.9 Units) off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 71.5, OPPONENT 75.0 - (Rating = 2*).

Arizona brings back three starters from last season in Kyle Fogg, Solomon Hill and Perry. In their opening matchup against Valparaiso, Perry led the way with 14 points and 10 boards. Notably, the Wildcats’ starters will have to improve on their outside shooting, as the starters went a combined 0-for-5 from downtown. Fogg added 16 points in the game, but outside of Fogg and Perry, the other three starters managed only 15 points on 3-of-13 shooting combined. Arizona barely won the rebounding battle (34-32) and committed 15 turnovers in the victory.

The Dukes will also be adjusting without their two leading scorers from last season, Bill Clark and Damian Saunders, who were also the team’s two leading rebounders. However, they do return the engine of the team, T.J. McConnell, who dished out 140 assists last season, helping Duquesne lead the nation in that category. He also swiped 91 steals, another category in which the Dukes led the country. He should see himself as a bigger scoring threat as well in 2011-2012, with the departure of Clark and Saunders, and will be a real danger to the Wildcats.

[StarDust Bum]

Pronger, Flyers try to stop streaking Lightning

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (8-4-2, 18 points)

at TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (7-5-2, 16 points)


Puck drops: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -120, Philadelphia +100, Total: 6

Tampa Bay looks to win their third game in a row, and fifth consecutive victory on home ice, when it hosts Philadelphia in an inter-divisional matchup on Wednesday night.

The Flyers boast the league’s most prolific offense, averaging 4.0 goals per game, and it was certainly on display in their most recent victory—a 9-2 drubbing of the Blue Jackets on Saturday. So far, Philly has played superb hockey on the road, going 4-1 away from home. Expect Ilya Bryzgalov (6-4-1, 2.94 GAA, .893 SV Pct.) to make his first start against the Lightning as a member of the Flyers. Bryzgalov went 2-1-0 with a 2.00 GAA and .921 SV Pct. in three starts against Tampa while with Phoenix. Dwayne Roloson (4-3-1, 3.31 GAA, .899 SV Pct.) is off to a rough start, but has picked up wins in his past two appearances for the Bolts. Roloson shut out the Flyers and dropped another in a shootout in his only two starts against Philly—both on home ice—last year after joining the Lightning in January. With plenty of offensive star power on both rosters, expect a back-and-forth, high-scoring battle, but with Flyers captain Chris Pronger (1 G, 6 A) likely back in the lineup (eye injury), expect PHILADELPHIA to pick up the win and improve on its stellar road record.

This anti-Lightning FoxSheets trend also likes the Flyers to prevail:

TAMPA BAY is 64-104 ATS (38.1%, +211.5 Units) against poor starting goalies - saving <= 89.5% of shots against since 1996. The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.6, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*).

The FoxSheets also think the OVER will occur on Wednesday night.

PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 OVER (+7.1 Units) against poor defensive teams - allowing 2.85+ goals/game this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.4, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 2*).

The Flyers offense has had no trouble adjusting to life without departed scorers Jeff Carter and Mike Richards. Center Claude Giroux (9 G, 10 A) is on pace to compete for the Hart Trophy and young LW James van Riemsdyk (6 G, 6 A) is becoming a force for Philly. RW Jaromir Jagr—signed in the offseason after spending two seasons in Russia—is second on the team in points with six goals and nine assists. The defense—which ranks 23rd in the league allowing 3.1 goals per game—has suffered without the physicality of Pronger. Veterans Kimmo Timonen (10 A, +4 rating) and Matt Carle (3 G, 5 A, +4 rating) have contributed nicely on offense.

Tampa Bay—much like Philly—enjoys great offensive output despite a less-than-stellar defense, averaging 3.1 goals scored and allowed per game. Sniper Steven Stamkos (10 G, 5 A) leads all Lightning forwards in points, and linemate RW Martin St. Louis (3 G, 11 A) has been his consistent self. The lack of defensive depth might also be related to the inconsistent goaltending from Roloson and Mathieu Garon (3-2-1, 2.80 GAA, .911 SV Pct.). Surprisingly though, puck-moving defenseman Marc-Andre Bergeron (2 G, 13 A) is tied for the team lead in points with Stamkos.