NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (11/10 - 11/14)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 13

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Sunday Night Football: Patriots at Jets
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New England Patriots at New York Jets (-1.5, 47.5)

THE STORY: New York Jets coach Rex Ryan has made no secret that he expects to get where Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots have been four times in the last 10 seasons. Having guaranteed that the Jets will reach – and win – the Super Bowl this season, Ryan's team will look to get a leg up in the AFC East by pushing the visiting Patriots into a position where they haven't been in nine years. The host Jets will be looking to hand New England its first three-game losing streak since the 2002 season when they meet in a division showdown on Sunday night. New York comes in riding a three-game winning streak.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Jets opened around -1 and have since been bet up to -1.5. The total opened at 48 and has dropped to 47.5.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (5-3, 4-4 ATS): Since a 30-21 home win over the Jets in Week 5, New England has scuffled on both sides of the ball. The Patriots have lost back-to-back games to the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers and have put up a combined 57 points in the past three games after having scored at least 30 in 13 straight contests. Brady was picked off twice in last week’s last-second loss, giving him 10 interceptions on the season – more than double last season’s total. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 136 yards and two TDs in the first meeting vs. the Jets, but has managed just 119 yards in the three games since.

ABOUT THE JETS (5-3, 4-4): The loss to the Patriots was the third in a row for New York, but it has rebounded with three impressive victories, outscoring its opponents 78-38. The Jets held Buffalo to a season-low point total in last week’s 27-11 road win. New York’s running game has been a big key behind the resurgence, piling up an average of just over 130 yards rushing during the winning streak. RB Shonn Greene is averaging 86.3 yards in his last four games after averaging only 39.3 in his first four games. QB Mark Sanchez had four TDs and zero interceptions in winning both home starts against New England.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. A win would allow Brady and Belichick to surpass Miami’s Don Shula and Dan Marino (116) for the most wins by a quarterback-coach duo since 1966.

2. New York has won four straight home games and has won its last six overall in November.

3. Brady needs 297 yards to become the second QB (Drew Brees) to throw for 3,000 yards in the first nine games of a season. Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson needs 45 yards from scrimmage to surpass Barry Sanders (18,190) for fifth place all time.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings in New York.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

PREDICTION: Jets 23, Patriots 17. With the teams going in opposite directions, New York hands New England its third straight defeat.


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[Udog]

High Wind Alert for Cinci

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+4, 40.5)

Winds are expected to be around 20 mph at Paul Brown Stadium with gust up to 45 mph. The forecast does call for a chance of rain but that shouldn't happen until later in the afternoon.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 14

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Vikings at Packers: What bettors need to know
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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13, 50.5)

THE STORY: Rookie Christian Ponder didn't project to be a first-round draft pick this year and certainly didn't figure to be in the mix for the starting quarterback job in his first season with the Minnesota Vikings. So as Ponder gets set to make his third career start on Monday night, he'll again be asked to overcome steep odds when the Vikings pay a visit to Lambeau Field to face the reigning Super Bowl champion – and unbeaten – Green Bay Packers. It will be the second time in three starts that Ponder will be staring across the field at Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who have reeled off 14 consecutive victories dating to last season's run to the Super Bowl.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2-6): Coming out of its bye, Minnesota will look to build on a 24-21 win at Carolina in Week 8. Ponder threw for 236 yards and a touchdown and Adrian Peterson had rushing and receiving TDs. The Vikings led visiting Green Bay at halftime in Ponder’s first start, but the Packers ripped off 20 consecutive points in the third quarter to take control. The Vikings will lean heavily on Peterson, who rushed for 175 yards in the first meeting and has amassed 982 yards in nine games against the Packers. Jared Allen, who leads the league in sacks with 13.0, had two of Minnesota’s four against Rodgers in Week 6.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (8-0): Rodgers continued his brilliant season by throwing four touchdown passes in a 45-38 win at San Diego. Charlie Peprah and Tramon Williams returned interceptions for TDs as Green Bay surpassed 40 points for the third time this season. It was the second four-touchdown game of the season for Rodgers, who has tossed an off-the-charts 24 scoring passes against only three interceptions. He’s also the first player in league history to compile a passer rating of at least 110 in each of the first eight games to start a season. The defense, particularly against the pass, continues to be a concern after allowing 65 points in the last two games.

LINE MOVEMENT:

This line has moved around a lot between 13 and 14 but it looks like it'll close on the low side of the two-touchdown mark. The total could be found as high as 51.5 but it looks like it's settled at 50.5.

TRENDS:

The Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs but 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.

The Packers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games and 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with losing records.

The under is 7-1 in the Vikings' last eight road games while the over is 7-2 in the Packers' last nine home games.

WEATHER:

A little chilly but that's to be expected for a Packer home game. Game-time temperature should be around 41 degrees F.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Green Bay is the third reigning Super Bowl champ to open the following season 8-0, joining San Francisco (1990) and Denver (1998).

2. Minnesota’s Allen has registered a sack in a franchise-record 10 straight games. He has 11.5 sacks in his last six games against the Packers.

3. The Packers are averaging 34.4 points per game. New Orleans (31.9) is the only other team averaging more than 30.

PREDICTION: Packers 34, Vikings 20. The Vikings will look to use the running of Peterson to play keep-away from Rodgers. It works – for about a half.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 14

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Tale of the tape: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13, 50)

Offense

The Green Bay Packers aren’t trying to fool anybody on offense – they’re going to throw it all over the place. They rank third in the league in passing offense and just 20th in rushing as Aaron Rodgers continues his incredible season. He has 24 TDs compared to just three interceptions this season and is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt.

Minnesota is pounding away with the running game. Adrian Peterson is averaging 4.8 yards per carry but the Vikings muster only 21.5 points per contest while ranking 29th in passing offense. Quarterback Christian Ponder has shown promise at times and picked up the first win of his career before the bye week. However, he’s completing just 51.9 percent of his passing attempts.

Edge: Packers


Defense

Neither of these teams can defend the pass well. Minnesota sits 30 in passing defense (273.6 yards per game) and Green Bay is even worse, allowing 299 yards per contest through the air. The Packers allowed 435 total yards in the first meeting between the two clubs but managed to hold on for a 33-27 win. Big plays are really hurting the cheeseheads as they have already allowed 43 plays of 20 or more yards.

Rodgers should expect to see a lot of Minnesota defensive end Jared Allen, who heads into this one with 12.5 sacks. He has managed at least one sack in seven straight games and is on track to top his single-season best of 15.5. Allen is the lone bright spot on a defense that’s allowing 24.9 points per contest.

Edge: Packers


Special teams

Minnesota needs a huge game from its special teams. The Vikes sit second in the NFL averaging 29.4 yards per kick return and have three returns of at least 65 yards already. Plus, Minnesota flies around on return coverage pinning its opposition inside its own 20-yard line 11 times this season, good for seventh in the league.

Green Bay kicker Mason Crosby is one of the best in the business and has hit all 15 of his field goal attempts, but Minnesota’s Ryan Longwell isn’t bad either. He has hit 13 of his 16 attempts and has a 53-yarder on his resume already this season.

Edge: Vikings


Word on the street

“This early, you might not think about [an undefeated season] quite as much, although you hear a lot about it from people outside of your organization. But the longer you’re undefeated, the more the drama builds and it can be overwhelming if you are not a mature team. But they seem to be.” – Vikings coach Leslie Frasier on Green Bay’s perfect record.

"We have to play the way we know how (to play) and get back to the fundamentals. Everybody needs to be held accountable, and I think we've got all the playmakers from last year. We're a good defense, we just need to play like that." – Green Bay’s Clay Matthews.

Final score prediction

Green Bay 45, Minnesota 28


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