NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (11/10 - 11/14)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, November 9 - Monday, November 14

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL odds: Week 10 opening line report

“It’s on to the Evil Empire.”

Thus Jets linebacker Calvin Pace ushered in an appetizing Week 10, perhaps the best slate of games all season.

Division leads are on the line in Patriots-Jets, Saints-Falcons, Steelers-Bengals and Raiders-Chargers. There’s a cross-country matchup of teams with a combined 13-3 record (Giants-Niners). No teams are off.

The wait for Week 10 is only three days long, with San Diego hosting Oakland on Thursday. Sunday brings 10 early games.

“That gets a day jumpstarted the right way,” said Todd Fuhrman, Caesars Palace senior race and sports analyst.

The buildup for Pats-Jets started immediately after New York won its third straight, dominating the Bills 27-11.

“It’s still a two-team race,” Pace told the New York Post. “It’s still just the Jets and Patriots. [The Bills are] doing well, but sometimes the spotlight is big. I think the Jets and the Patriots can handle that spotlight. We control our own destiny.”

With the Pats on a two-game slide and looking ordinary offensively, books opened the Sunday night showdown at Jets -1. A month ago New England laid 7.5 against the visiting Jets.

“You hate to use the word overrated but in this case it fits: New England is not a great team and it’s starting to show,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations at Lucky’s sportsbook. “The armor is starting to get chinked. The Jets are playing better. They’re in a better mental state.

“But if it closed at Jets -1 or Patriots -1, it wouldn’t surprise me.”

Wynn sportsbook manager John Avello said the last three weeks have shown the Pats’ vulnerability.

“New England’s offense has slowed down and the Jets look like they’re back on track,” Avello said. “One team is heading north and one team seems to be going south.”

The Patriots haven’t scored more than 20 points since beating the Jets 30-21 on Oct. 9. They lack explosiveness at wide receiver and running back.

If Tom Brady is less than perfect, it’s hard for New England to overcome its shoddy defense.

“I wasn’t high on them at the beginning of the year,” Fuhrman said. “I don’t see this as an aberration.”

Another near tossup game will be played in the Georgia Dome, where Atlanta (5-3) hosts New Orleans (6-3) for NFC West supremacy. Bettors believe the Saints are better, but the Falcons rarely lose at home.

New Orleans opened as a 1-point favorite.

“Matt Ryan’s track record at the Georgia Dome speaks for itself,” Fuhrman said, referring to Ryan losing just three regular-season home games since entering the league in 2008. “And when you talk about divisional rivals, it’s important for these teams to hold serve. The home team has the added sense of urgency.”

The Steelers, coming off a heartbreaking home loss to Baltimore, visit 6-2 Cincy as 3-point favorites. The Bengals probably need to win to keep pace with 6-2 Baltimore, which visits 2-6 Seattle.

Bettors expect Bengals QB Andy Dalton to finally play like a rookie. He hasn’t yet.

“A rookie QB making zero mistakes so far?” Avello said. “Their schedule has been soft. Now he goes against one of the top-rated defenses. This is the week you can prove you’re a contender, or not.”

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Arizona at Philadelphia (-16, 47), Minnesota at Green Bay (-13.5, 51)

The Cardinals played well in their last trip east, nearly upsetting Baltimore as 12-point underdogs. Still, they’re just 3-7 ATS as road dogs since last year.

Coming off a bye, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS since rookie QB Christian Ponder took over. They lost 33-27 at home to the Pack three weeks ago as 10-point dogs.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

New Orleans at Atlanta (1, 50.5), New England at New York (-1, 47.5), St. Louis at Cleveland (-1.5, 37.5)

You almost have to bet on Rams-Browns to watch it, unless you’re a fan or either team or an interested fantasy owner. Cleveland is 0-4-2 as a home favorite since last year.

BIGGEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Minnesota at Green Bay (-13.5, 51), New Orleans at Atlanta (1, 50.5)

Packers’ games have averaged 56.8 points this season. Aaron Rodgers is on pace to throw for 5,238 yards and 48 touchdowns.

Since 2009, the over is just 3-12 in New Orleans’ division games.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (3, 37.5), St. Louis at Cleveland (-1.5, 37.5), Washington at Miami (-3.5, 37.5)

Matt Moore is playing the best of any QB in this trio of games. That tells you something.

Six of Washington’s last seven games have gone under.

Jacksonville has played seven unders in eight games, with the total going under by an average of 7.3 points.

[Udog]

NFL Week 9 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

The Dolfan contingent want the “Suck for Luck” campaign to continue. The players aren’t obliging.

The Dolphins weren’t going to let this one slip away. Hell, they didn’t even let K.C. score after the field goal in the first.

I’m not surprised Miami got its first win. The Chiefs were coming off an emotional week with short rest and prep. I’m just surprised how efficient the win was. And to think all it took was a football fired at the face of Vontae Davis. Nothing like teammate-on-teammate violence to bring a locker room together.

Chalk it up as another one of those stories bettors would have loved to know all the juicy details about before kickoff, right fellas?

Chad Henne’s injury was a blessing in disguise. There’s not a doubt in my mind that Matt Moore is better than Checkdown Chad.

If the Dolphins don’t win the Luck sweepstakes then they’ve got a competent quarterback in house. Miami’s protection hasn’t been good this season but Moore has mobility to elude pressure. His passing improves as chemistry with his teammates improves.

And who would’ve guessed, Reggie Bush is finally pulling the weight of that contract. He’s looked more determined the last two weeks than he’s looked the last two years. When Daniel Thomas is back to full health this will be a solid one-two, power-speed punch.

This team hasn’t been discouraged by the tough losses. It hasn’t been distracted by the tanking talk. Tony “Da Godfadda” Sparano has these guys competing every week, and they’re getting better by the week.

I’m guessing there’s going to be value with the Phins until they get a few more wins. Anyone else ready to ride the aqua wave?

Overtime killer

When you’ve got points in your pocket heading to overtime, the percentages are in your favor.

But they didn’t play out two weeks ago for USC backers. And if you were holding a field goal with the Rams, you were left holding nothing but frustration after that debacle.

The punt sailed through the air and Peterson drifted back. The five, the four, the three…surely he’s not going to try and return this. This isn’t LSU son. You put your foot on the five and don’t catch the ball if you take one step back.

Apparently Patty P doesn’t care. All he was thinking about was that end zone. This kid is going through his growing pains as a corner but he is dynamic returning kicks. Not Devin Hester level yet, but maybe soon.

Runnin’ Bucs wild

I made bet the Bucs-Saints under this week because I expected both teams to try and run the ball more than usual.

LeGarrette “Rolla” Blount was my first tipoff. He was pumped about returning from injury as the feature back and spilt the beans. He said he expected a bigger role in the offense, which his head coach might have told him.

You see, Raheem Morris hasn’t been exactly pleased with the play of Josh Freeman this season.

Morris recently said his quarterback was relying on his arm too much, wasn’t going through his progressions and wasn’t checking down enough. He joked that Freeman must have drafted himself in fantasy because he was trying to force throws that weren’t there. Too much confidence was his prognosis.

How do you curb that confidence? Take the ball out of Freeman’s hands. Tampa didn’t have a ton of carries Sunday but I think we’ll see a more controlled offense from this team going forward, which could lend to more unders.

The Saints were eager to run this week because the Bucs can’t stop the run, and it offsets the problems on the line. EZ Brees has thrown a lot of picks because he doesn’t have time in the pocket.

But Brees wasn’t sacked once Sunday. Sean Payton called for runs when Tampa called for pressure. When the rookie gets healthy, the Saints will have four capable backs to hand off to, and that’s scary.

To catch, or not to catch, that is the question

I’m beyond confused so I ask again, will someone clarify the “Calvin Johnson” rule for me. As a bettor I want to know when I've gotten screwed and when I got a break. It helps me sleep at night. I can't get that relief if I don't understand a rule.

Hines Ward makes a grab, gets popped, falls to the ground and they call it a catch. Ravens challenge, it’s overturned. Pitt has to settle for a field goal instead of going for it on fourth-and-inches.

How many seconds does a receiver have to be on the ground to complete the catch? Hines clearly had possession when his butt and back hit the ground, and then Bernard Pollard dislodged it.

Of course this would’ve been moot had Hines not been concussed. It should’ve either been a catch or a helmet-to-helmet hit on Ray Lewis.

The rules brain trust better get this shit straight during the offseason because the inconsistency is ridiculous. And every bad call is even more infuriating when it affects your bankroll.

Lean on me

Texans -3 at Bucs - I’m impressed that Houston has played so well without its two superstars.

Patriots +1 at Jets - I just don’t see how Brady and the boys lose three in a row.

Giants +3 ½ at Niners - Need to find out about key injuries before making a bet but NY could win this one outright.

NFL Record: 24-14-2, $888

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 10

Oakland at San Diego
The Chargers look to build on their 24-7 ATS record in their last 31 games as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points. San Diego is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10

Game 107-108: Oakland at San Diego (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 123.392; San Diego 134.644
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 11 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 48
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7); Over


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 13

Game 217-218: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 137.963; Cincinnati 134.108
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3); Under

Game 219-220: Denver at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.971; Kansas City 135.905
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 14; 39
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); Under

Game 221-222: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 128.418; Indianapolis 120.398
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 8; 42
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3); Over

Game 223-224: Buffalo at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 131.763; Dallas 138.686
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Dallas by 5; 48
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5); Under

Game 225-226: Houston at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 138.444; Tampa Bay 132.860
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3); Over

Game 227-228: Tennessee at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.555; Carolina 130.595
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3); Under

Game 229-230: Washington at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 124.263; Miami 126.999
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Miami by 4; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Over

Game 231-232: New Orleans at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.290; Atlanta 135.312
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Pick; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans; Under

Game 233-234: Detroit at Chicago (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 136.222; Chicago 140.125
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Over

Game 235-236: St. Louis at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.925; Cleveland 125.867
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 37;
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 237-238: Arizona at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 121.115; Philadelphia 138.965
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 18; 37
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 239-240: Baltimore at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 137.109; Seattle 126.599
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-6 1/2); Under

Game 241-242: NY Giants at San Francisco (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 132.949; San Francisco 139.059
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 6; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Over

Game 243-244: New England at NY Jets (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.617; NY Jets 137.703
Dunkel Line: New England by 2; 50
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: New England (+1); Over


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 14

Game 245-246: Minnesota at Green Bay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.481; Green Bay 142.311
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 47
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13; 51
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-13); Under

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

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Thursday, November 10

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OAKLAND (4 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 4) - 11/10/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 4-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 2-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 13

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 3) at CINCINNATI (6 - 2) - 11/13/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (3 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 4) - 11/13/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 6) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 9) - 11/13/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (5 - 3) at DALLAS (4 - 4) - 11/13/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (6 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 4) - 11/13/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (4 - 4) at CAROLINA (2 - 6) - 11/13/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (3 - 5) at MIAMI (1 - 7) - 11/13/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 44-68 ATS (-30.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (6 - 3) at ATLANTA (5 - 3) - 11/13/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (6 - 2) at CHICAGO (5 - 3) - 11/13/2011, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (1 - 7) at CLEVELAND (3 - 5) - 11/13/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
ST LOUIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
ST LOUIS is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (2 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 5) - 11/13/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (6 - 2) at SEATTLE (2 - 6) - 11/13/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (6 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 1) - 11/13/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 25-44 ATS (-23.4 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
NY GIANTS are 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (5 - 3) at NY JETS (5 - 3) - 11/13/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 76-45 ATS (+26.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 140-106 ATS (+23.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 60-38 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-3 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-3 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 14

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MINNESOTA (2 - 6) at GREEN BAY (8 - 0) - 11/14/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, 11/10/2011

OAKLAND at SAN DIEGO, 8:20 PM ET NFL
OAKLAND: 1-5 ATS off BB home losses
SAN DIEGO: 14-4 Under at home vs. Oakland


Sunday, 11/13/2011

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 15-5 ATS at Cincinnati
CINCINNATI: 6-0 ATS vs. conference

DENVER at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 9-1 Over off road game
KANSAS CITY: 0-6 ATS at home after scoring 14 points or less last game

JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 22-8 Over off division road loss
INDIANAPOLIS: 6-0 Over off home loss

BUFFALO at DALLAS, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 0-6 ATS off division game
DALLAS: 2-11 ATS as favorite

HOUSTON at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 6-0 Under as favorite
TAMPA BAY: 1-8 ATS as home dog of 7 pts or less

TENNESSEE at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 36-16 ATS vs. NFC
CAROLINA: 10-1 Under as home favorite

WASHINGTON at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 33-14 ATS as road underdog of 3.5 to 7 pts
MIAMI: 2-9 ATS in home games

NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 12-3 Under vs. division
ATLANTA: 1-11 ATS at home off 3+ ATS wins

DETROIT at CHICAGO, 4:15 PM ET (TC)
DETROIT: 6-0 Over off win by 28+ pts
CHICAGO: n/a

ST LOUIS at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 1-7 ATS this season
CLEVELAND: 0-6 ATS on grass

ARIZONA at PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 2-8 ATS off home win
PHILADELPHIA:

BALTIMORE at SEATTLE, 4:05 PM ET
BALTIMORE: 6-0 ATS after allowing 300+ passing yds
SEATTLE: 8-2 Over in November

NY GIANTS at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:15 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 0-7 ATS after allowing 400+ total yards
SAN FRANCISCO: 7-0-1 ATS this season

NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS, 8:20 PM ET (TC) | NBC
NEW ENGLAND: 42-24 ATS in division road games
NY JETS: 9-0 Under after allowing 99 or less rushing yds last game


Monday, 11/14/2011

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
MINNESOTA: 0-6 ATS Away off SU win
GREEN BAY: 7-0 ATS off 2 game road trip

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL

Week 10

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 10

8:20 PM
OAKLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
San Diego is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Oakland


Sunday, November 13

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 8 games
Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Dallas's last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Arizona is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. TAMPA BAY
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Houston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games at home

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing at home against Denver

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. CAROLINA
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Carolina is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games at home
Carolina is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CLEVELAND
St. Louis is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. MIAMI
Washington is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Miami is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 10 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans

4:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SEATTLE
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Baltimore is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Seattle is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

4:15 PM
NY GIANTS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Detroit

8:20 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
New England is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
NY Jets are 5-14 SU in their last 19 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing New England


Monday, November 14

8:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Minnesota's last 21 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Green Bay's last 21 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Raiders (4-4) @ Chargers (4-4)-- Two slumping rivals meet on short rest; San Diego is 0-3 since its bye, turning ball over nine times- they're 1-3 as favorite at home this year, but 33-21-2 since 2003, 13-8-1 in last 22 divisional home tilts. Oakland beat Chargers twice LY, ending 0-13 series skid; they've lost seven of last eight visits here, with all seven losses by 7+ points. Raiders are on road for first time in five weeks; they're 2-1 on foreign soil this year, with three games decided by total of 11 points;they're 20-15-1 in last 36 games as road underdog. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in AFC West games this season. Four of last five Raider games stayed under total; three of last four San Diego games went over.

Steelers (6-3) @ Bengals (6-2)-- Steelers had four-game win streak snapped last week by Ravens' late 92-yard TD drive; surprising Bengals won/covered five in a row behind rookie QB Dalton. Cincy is only NFL team to win battle for field position in all eight games this season. Bengals held last six opponents to just 77 yards per game on ground. Steelers won seven of last nine against Bengals- they've won nine of last ten visits here, with eight of nine wins by 6+ points. Steelers are 4-9-1 vs spread in last 14 games as pre-bye favorite. Dogs are 0-3 vs spread the week after playing Titans. Over is 3-1 both in Bengals' last four games and Pitt's last four games overall, 3-0 in AFC North games this season.

Broncos (3-5) @ Chiefs (4-4)-- Since 2003, Chiefs are 3-11 vs spread as home favorite in divisional games, 0-6 last four years; they had four-game win streak ended by a winless Miami last week. Visiting team won all three Tebow starts this season, with Denver running ball for 225.3 yards/game; Broncos are 3-1 vs spread on road, winning at Miami/Oakland, losing by 3 at Tennessee, 49-23 at Lambeau. Chiefs have only one TD in last five red zone drives, are 2-2 at home, with dog winning all four games SU. Denver lost six of last eight visits here, but they've won first series meeting vs Chiefs in eight of last ten seasons. Six of eight Denver games went over the total; last three Chief games stayed under.

Jaguars (2-6) @ Colts (0-9)-- This game is Indy's biggest remaining hurdle to a winless season and right to draft Andrew Luck. Colts are 9-3 in last 12 series games, winning four of last five, but only one of four wins was by more than 7 points. Jaguars lost five of last six visits here, losing by 7-7-7-2-10. Indy failed to cover last five games, losing last four by average of 37-10, with a -9 turnover ratio. Jaguars lost six of last seven games, scoring 14 or less points is six of the seven- they've gone 3/out on 23 of last 47 drives. Under is 7-1 in Jacksonville games, 4-1 in AFC South games. Since 2001, Jaguars are 6-16 as road favorites. Indianapolis was outscored 75-14 in first half of their last three games.

Bills (5-3) @ Cowboys (4-4)—Dallas won seven of ten series games, winning 25-24 in wild ’07 Monday nighter last time teams met. Four of last five series games were decided by 4 or less points. Bills lost three of four visits here, with only win in ’93, during the Emmitt Smith holdout. Buffalo is 4-0 when it scored 31+ points, 1-3 when it doesn’t; Cowboys allow an average of 17.5 ppg at homer. Teams are 0-3 as underdogs week after facing the Jets; teams are 1-4-2 vs spread week after playing Seattle. Dallas is 2-8 vs spread in last ten games as home favorite, 1-3 this year. AFC East road underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East home favorites are 3-7. Last four Cowboy games stayed under the total.

Texans (6-3) @ Buccaneers (4-4)—Houston won/covered its last three games, outscoring opponents 51-10 in first half; they’ve allowed 40-25-29 points in their losses, 24 or less in all six wins. Bucs lost three of last four games; they’ve scored more than 24 points one time this season. Home side won both series meetings; Texans lost 16-3 here eight years ago, in their only visit. Houston is 5-4 SU in pre-bye games, despite being underdog in eight of the nine games; three of those five wins are by 4 or less points. Teams are 1-6 (1-1 as favorites) week after playing Cleveland; teams are 0-4 as underdogs week after playing the Saints. AFC South underdogs are 3-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 1-0 on road. NFC South dogs are 5-5, 2-1 at home. Under is 6-3 in Texan games this season, 5-1 in last six Tampa Bay tilts.

Titans (4-4) @ Panthers (2-6)—First road game in five weeks for Tennessee squad that lost three of last four games; Titans are 1-4 when they score 17 or less points, 3-0 when they score more. Carolina has held only one team (Jaguars, in a monsoon) under 20 points this season. Surprising lack of running game (100+ yards in only one game, 112 at Browns in Week 4) has hurt Titans, who lost two of three on foreign soil. Panthers are 2-6 despite improved QB play this year; rookie Newton has engineered 15 TD drives in his last five games- they’re 2-3 at home, allowing 10-20 points in their two wins, 24+ in the six losses. Carolina is 3-2 in five series meetings, with four of five decided by 13+ points; teams split pair of meetings here, with Titans’ last visit in ’06.

Redskins (3-5) @ Dolphins (1-7)— Miami is favored for first time this year; they’re an incredibly bad 6-29 vs spread last 35 times they were a home favorite. Hard to believe these teams met in two Super Bowls; home team won eight of other ten series games, with Redskins 0-4 on South Beach, losing by 3-2-1-7 points. Washington is 0-4 since its bye and was impotent in last two games, scoring one TD on 23 drives with two FGs tried and 10 3/outs. Skins are 1-3 on road, losing by 2-13-23 points, with only win at 1-7 Rams; they’ve turned ball over 14 times in last five games (-8). Dolphins are 0-3 at home, losing by 14-10-3 points; they led by 15 with 3:00 left in last home game but still lost. Last seven Miami games, six of last seven Redskin games stayed under the total.

Saints (6-3) @ Falcons (5-3)—Pre-bye road favorites are 6-0 SU (5-1 against spread) this year; Saints won/covered six of last eight pre-bye games. Atlanta won/covered last three games, scoring 28.3 ppg while running ball for 152.7 ypg; they scored 12-13-14 points (three TDs on 30 drives), 23+ in all five wins (18 TDs on 57 drives). New Orleans won eight of last ten series games in this underrated rivalry, winning four of last five visits here (won 26-23/17-14 in last two visits). Saints are 2-3 on road, losing last two on foreign soil, to Rams/ Bucs. Six of last seven series totals were 47+. Home teams are 5-0 vs spread in NFC South games this year, with four of the five games staying under total. Teams are 2-4 SU (dogs 0-2 vs spread) the week after playing the Colts; they are 5-1 SU, 22 as favorites week after playing the Bucs.

Lions (6-2) @ Bears (5-3)—This series has been swept last seven years; Detroit (-5.5) won first meeting 24-13 in Week 5 Monday nighter, just its third win in last 13 series games- they had 181 rushing yards, 214 passing, as Chicago started eight of ten drives 80+ yards from goal line. Lions are 4-0 on road this year, scoring 33 ppg (11 TDs on 47 drives). Bears won/covered last three games (all three at night); this is their first day game since Week 4. Chicago is 3-1 at home, winning by 18-5-29 points, with only loss to Packers. Home teams are 4-1 vs spread in NFC North games. Three of four Chicago home games went over total. Pre-bye road teams are 10-5 SU this season; under is 9-7 in those games (both teams were on road in London game). Lions converted on just 7 of last 39 third down plays.

Rams (1-7) @ Browns (3-5)—Cleveland coach Shurmur was Rams’ OC last couple years, so he has good insight on why team is so dreadful, but his Browns aren’t much better, losing four of last five games (win was 6-3 eyesore over Seattle). Browns are 1-3-1 as favorites this year, holding teams to 19-16-3 points in their wins- they allowed 20+ points in all five losses. Bradford returned at QB for St Louis last week and played well enough; this team moves ball (only 10 3/outs on last 46 drives, but also only five TDs (10 FG tries)). St Louis ran ball for 183-150 yards last two games, as Jackson looks healthy, but poor game management in last 2:00 cost them win in Arizona last week. Under is 4-1 in last five Ram games, 3-1 in Cleveland’s last four. Ram franchise actually started out in Cleveland, moving to LA in 1946.

Cardinals (2-6) @ Eagles (3-5)— Erratic Philly turned ball over 2+ times in six of last seven games (2-5); they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, 7-9 since ’09. Since ’00, they’re 7-9 as double digit favorite. Arizona rookie Peterson has three punt return TDs in first eight NFL games, getting one in each of last two games- his presence will help Arizona field position- teams will start punting out-of-bounds so he can’t touch ball. Cardinals are 7-6-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, 2-1 this year, losing away games by 1-3-24 (@ Vikings)-3 points. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are just 2-7 vs spread. Last meeting was 32-25 Arizona win in ’08 playoffs; Redbirds lost three of last four visits here (losses by 25-24-28 points) with last win here in ’01. Three of four Arizona road games stayed under total.

Ravens (6-2) @ Seahawks (2-6)—Major trap/sandwich game for Baltimore after huge win at Heinz Field last week and with Bengals on deck; they lost 26-13 (-6) at Tennessee in game after their last Steeler win, back in Week 2. Ravens won five of last six games, but last two were by FG each, after their first four wins were all by 15+ points- they’re 2-2 on road, 4-3 as favorites, 1-2 as road faves (since ’05, they’re 6-13 as road favorite). Home team won last three series games, with Ravens losing 27-6 here in last meeting, in ’07. Seahawks are 0-3 since bye, losing by 3-22-10 points, with two TDs on 34 drives, none of which started in enemy territory. Seahawks have seven takeaways in their two wins (+3), four in six losses (-8). Six of eight Raven games went over total- they were held to 13-7 points in their two losses. Six of eight Seattle foes scored 23+ points.

Giants (6-2) @ 49ers (7-1)— Well-coached Niners are +12 in turnovers, with 2+ takeaways in 7 of 8 games, and only 7 giveaways all year; they held last three opponents under 70 yards rushing. One red flag for SF: of their last seven offensive TDs, only two of them covered more than half the field. Defense/special teams are carrying this team, as 10 of their last 46 drives started in enemy territory. 49ers are 3-0 as home favorite this year, winning by 16-45-10 points (lost 27-24 at home to Dallas as 3-point dog). Jerseyites won six of last seven games, with road wins at Philly (29-16, +8), Arizona (31-27, -1.5), Foxboro (24-20, +9), with Manning leading game-winning drives late in last- they won last three meetings with 49ers, by 18-18-12 points. 49ers’ last three games stayed under total.

Patriots (5-3) @ Jets (5-3)—Surging Jets won/covered last three games, outscoring opponents 51-17 in second half; six of their last 20 drives started in enemy territory. Sputtering Pats allowed 25-24 points in losing last two games; they’re 4-0 this year when giving up less than 24 points, 1-3 when they allow more. NE gained at least 7.3 ypa in first five games; they’ve been at 6.5 or below in last three games, as they lack explosive WR opposite Welker. Home side won five of last six series games; Jets (+8) lost 30-21 in Foxboro in Week 5; they were outrushed 152-97, outgained 446-255- NE converted 7-14 on 3rd down, Jets 3-11. Pats lost last two visits here, 16-9/28-14- they haven’t swept this series since their 18-1 season in 2007. Four of last five Jersey games stayed under total.

Vikings (2-6) @ Packers (8-0)—Defending champs are 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 8-26-21 points. Unbeaten Green Bay won 33-27 (-10) at Metrodome three weeks ago, despite Vikings outrushing them 218-114; Pack used 10-yard edge in average field position for win, as eight of 11 Viking drives started 80+ yards from goal line. 2-6 Minnesota has trailed at half in only two games; they’re 4-0 vs spread when they score 23+ points, 1-3 when they don’t. Divisional home favorites are 8-2 vs spread in NFC games. Pack is +11 in turnovers, taking ball away 2+ times in six of last seven games. Vikings lost four of last five visits here, losing by 2-34-5-4 points. Rookie QB Ponder is from Texas, played at Florida State, so a November night in Lambeau could be new experience for him. Four of last five series totals were 52+.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we spoke to MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback. He tells us why these lines are moving and where they might end up.

NCAAF

Hawaii at Nevada -12.5 ----> -15

Stoneback said professional bettors swooped in fast on this one. "They laid 12.5, 13 and 14 with us," he said. "We went to 15 on Wednesday."

The Warriors sometimes struggle when they come to the mainland, Stoneback noted, recalling their Sept. 17 visit to UNLV. Hawaii lost 40-20 as a 17-point favorite.

"And UNLV is probably one of the 10 worst teams in the country," he said.

Stoneback doesn't see the line moving higher, as it's already crossed the two-touchdown plateau.

Wyoming at Air Force -13.5 ....> -15

Air Force is just 3-6 ATS, compared to Wyoming's 5-3 ATS mark. And the Cowboys just played TCU tough, losing 31-20 as a 19.5-point dog. The game was tied 17-all at halftime.

"This one kind of surprises me a little bit," Stoneback said. "Over the last few weeks Wyoming seems to be improved."

All the action came from professional bettors.

The Falcons, laying 16 at some books, are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.


NFL

St. Louis at Cleveland -2.5 ....> -3 (even)

Sharps immediately bet the Browns up to a field goal, then there was a buyback on the Rams, bringing it down to -3 even.

"There are still a lot of 2.5's out there, so I wouldn't be surprised if we took some more money on the Rams and the game closed at 2.5," Stoneback said.

He called Cleveland's offense inept and said this game will be hard on the eyes.

New Orleans at Atlanta +1 ....> Pick

Money came in on the host Falcons, who are 22-5 in the Georgia Dome in regular-season games under coach Mike Smith.

"New Orleans' defense is still suspect, and Atlanta has played a little bit better the past few games," Stoneback said.

Some offshore books list the Falcons as 1-point favorites. Stoneback said he has no idea which team will end up being favored by kickoff.

The total on this game dropped from 51 to 50 at MGM Mirage. The Saints won last year's meeting in Atlanta, 17-14.

Tennessee at Carolina total: 45.5 ....> 46.5

The Cam Newton phenomenon has led to some shootouts for the Panthers.

"They've been a high-scoring team this year," Stoneback said of the Panthers, who average a higher-than-expected 23.4 points, good for 16th in the league. "Every week it seems we get action on the over with them."

Five of eight Carolina games have soared over the total, with an average combined score of 49.2.

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, November 10

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football: Raiders at Chargers
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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-7, 47.5)

THE STORY: The San Diego Chargers have made a habit of starting slowly and digging themselves into early-season holes in the past few years. San Diego bucked that trend this season, opening with four wins in its first five games. Now, the Chargers are mired in a three-game losing streak as they prepare to host the Oakland Raiders on Thursday night with first place in the AFC West on the line. It will mark the third game in 11 days for San Diego, which is tied with the Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs for the division lead. Oakland has lost its last two games to division rivals Kansas City and Denver.

TV: NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE MOVES: San Diego opened as a low as -6.5 and has been bet up to a touchdown favorite. The total has dropped from 49 to 47.5 points.

WEATHER: Game-time temperatures will be in the high 70s under partial cloudy skies. There is a zero percent chance of rain and a slight 1-mph breeze at Qualcomm Stadium.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (4-4, 5-3 ATS): After dropping back-to-back home games, Oakland plays four of its next five on the road. The Raiders are 0-2 since losing QB Jason Campbell to injury and blew a pair of 10-point leads in Sunday’s 38-24 loss to the Broncos. QB Carson Palmer threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns, but he was also intercepted three times, giving him six picks in 1 ½ games. Michael Bush rushed for 96 yards in place of Darren McFadden, who is expected to sit out again with a sprained foot suffered in a loss to Kansas City on Oct. 23.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (4-4, 2-6 ATS): Philip Rivers has become a turnover machine for San Diego, tossing a career-high three interceptions in Sunday’s 45-38 home loss to Green Bay. He now has a league-leading 14 picks – one more than he had all of last season. Rivers, who had two interceptions returned for scores, did rebound to throw for 385 yards and four TDs – three to stud WR Vincent Jackson. RB Ryan Mathews could return Thursday after sitting out Sunday. Backup Mike Tolbert rushed for 83 yards and a TD and had four catches for 59 yards. TE Antonio Gates tied a season high with eight catches.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Oakland swept both meetings with the Chargers last season, winning in San Diego 28-13 while amassing 251 yards on the ground.

2. Rivers’ passing rating stands at 81.4. He finished the past three seasons with a rating above 100.

3. Palmer had his best game of the season against San Diego a year ago, throwing for four TDs and just missing a perfect passer rating (157.2).

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in San Diego.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

PREDICTION: Chargers 34, Raiders 20. Rivers finally solves his turnover issues and carves up a defense that has yielded 66 points in consecutive losses to offensively challenged Kansas City and Denver.


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[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, November 10

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Tale of the tape: Raiders at Chargers
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Thursday Night Football is back on the NFL Network, giving bettors some midweek NFL action. Here’s the tale of the tape for the AFC West battle between the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers (-7, 47.5) Thursday.

Offense

At first glance, it would appear the Chargers have the upper hand when it comes to scoring. However, these teams have a lot in common over the past few games.

Under center, Philip Rivers is a better quarterback than Carson Palmer, who is playing in just his third game for the Raiders. But both passers have been terribly turnover prone.

Rivers has passed for 2,469 yards and 11 touchdowns but has also thrown 14 interceptions – half of those in the last three games. He threw three picks against the Packers last weekend, two of which were returned for touchdowns.

Palmer is slowly gelling with his new team, passing for three scores, but also three interceptions, in Oakland’s 39-24 loss to Denver. He’s been picked off six times since being plucked off the scrap heap in Cincinnati. This game could come down to which QB makes the fewest mistakes.

Rivers does have more talent to throw to, especially WR Vincent Jackson, who hauled in three scores last week. He also has TE Antonio Gates and WR Vincent Brown, who were both very active versus Green Bay. Receiver Malcolm Floyd is expected to miss another game with a hip injury.

The Raiders have a budding receiving corps but are still after a consistent weapon. Leading receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey was benched versus the Broncos, but Oakland got solid efforts from Jacoby Ford, Denarius Moore and new addition T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who played with Palmer in Cincinnati.

On the ground, both teams are banged up. The Raiders aren’t holding their breath when it comes to Darren McFadden’s dinged-up foot. It doesn’t look like the dynamic back will play, leaving the carries to Michael Bush. He rushed for 96 yards last Sunday.

Chargers running back Ryan Mathews is coming off a groin injury and sat out last week’s loss to Green Bay. Mathews was a go for practice this week and is expected to play, getting support from wreaking ball Mike Tolbert, who rumbled for 83 yards and a score while adding 59 yards receiving in Week 9.

Edge: Chargers


Defense

San Diego continues to post solid defensive numbers when it comes to yardage, but doesn’t cut it where it really counts – points against.

The Bolts are allowing 25.5 points per game (25th in the NFL) and were torched by the Packers for 460 total yards. They’ve given up more than 20 points in four straight outings. Injuries have thinned out the talent on the stop unit, with notables like Shaun Phillips, Luis Castillo and Bob Sanders all out or injured.

Oakland’s defense has hemorrhaged points the past two games. The Raiders allowed 28 points to the Chiefs in Week 7, then barfed up 38 points to the Tebow-led Broncos last weekend. Denver rolled over the Silver and Black for 298 yards rushing and two scores.

The Raiders have little to no pass rush, with four sacks in the last three games, and appear gassed in the second half, allowing 55 of their total 83 points against in the final two quarters over past three outings.

Edge: Chargers


Special teams

With McFadden on the shelf, the Raiders’ best offensive weapon is the rocket-launcher leg of veteran kicker Sebastian Janikowski. He’s 13 for 14 on field goals and has gone 5 for 6 on kicks of 50 or more yards this season.

On the return side, Oakland is averaging 23.1 yards per kick return with one touchdown and only 7.7 yards per punt return, which ranks 27th in the NFL.

The Bolts have notoriously been weak on special teams. San Diego kicker Nick Novak is 16 for 17 on field goal attempts and has gone 5 for 5 on kicks between 40 and 49 yards. He’s 2 for 3 on FG attempts of 50 or more yards this year.

The Chargers return team is ranked 18th in the league on kick returns, averaging 23 yards, and sits 15th in punt return yardage, with 9.5 yards per punt return.

Edge: Raiders


Word on the street

"Phil has always been like a gunslinger. He's going to give you a chance. It's just so happened this year that it hasn't gone his way. But playing against Phil all of these years, man, he's going to be ready to play. It don't matter what he did against Green Bay. All he's worried about is trying to torch the Raiders. He ain't worried about no picks." – Raider DT Tommy Kelly on Philip Rivers.

“It’s like anything else when things are not going as well it’s easy to all of sudden have all these spins. Two weeks ago, things were going great and there was none of these things being said. You start to lose a couple of games, and that comes with the territory. I understand that. I respect that. But we don’t have a problem in our locker room. We don’t have a problem with this team. Hue Jackson is the head coach of this team and trying to get this team as good as he can.” – Raiders head coach Hue Jackson, talking about dissension among his players.


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[Udog]

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 10

Every team in the NFL has reached at least the midpoint of the season. We’ve got one unbeaten team, one totally beaten team and everything in between. And this week, there are no byes and even a Thursday night game. Let’s get to the Week 10 poolies' cheat sheet:

Oakland at San Diego (-7)

Why Raiders cover: The AFC West is the only division without a team above .500, so 7 points seems like a lot to get for such mediocrity. San Diego has lost straight up and against the spread the last three in a row, falling to 2-6 ATS. Raiders have cashed four straight in this rivalry (all as underdog), four straight on road and five of six as a pup.

Why Chargers cover: If Norv Turner loses this week, he’ll need an ice bath, because his rear will be on fire from hot seat. Helping Turner out: Oakland might again be minus stud RB Darren McFadden. Raiders don’t work well on short rest, losing ATS last four Thursday outings.

Total (47.5): With Bolts a home chalk, final score has gone low seven straight, and under is 7-1 overall in Chargers’ last eight at Qualcomm, with lone over coming last week vs. Packers. Under 12-3-1 last 16 Raiders-Bolts meetings in San Diego.

Arizona at Philadelphia (NA)

Why Cardinals cover: Because Eagles’ so-called Dream Team more like nightmare at 3-5 SU and ATS. Philly on all sorts of pointspread nosedives, including 3-8 overall and 1-6 at home.

Why Eagles cover: Not enough room on Norv Turner’s hot seat for hefty Andy Reid to join. Philly playing far too inconsistent for its talent level, and pressure on to right ship this week against inferior opponent. Redbirds 4-11 ATS last 15 on highway.

Total: Under 5-2 Philly’s last seven at home and Arizona’s last seven on road.

Tennessee at Carolina (-3)

Why Titans cover: They’re getting 3 points against a 2-6 team with rookie QB. Titans also a decent bounceback bet of late, with ATS upticks of 5-1 after SU loss and 5-1 after non-cover.

Why Panthers cover: The rookie QB is Cam Newton, whose talent has exceeded expectations. He threw three TDs and no picks in Week 8 vs. Vikings. Has already thrown for nearly 2,400 yards and 11 TDs, and rushed for 319 yards and another seven scores. Titans on 1-3 SU and ATS skid, and Carolina has covered five of last six at home.

Total (46): Under on runs of 9-1 with Panthers favored and 5-1 with Carolina coming off bye.

Houston (-3.5) at Tampa Bay

Why Texans cover: Three straight double-digit wins (2-0-1 ATS), despite absence of star WR Andre Johnson and LB Mario Williams, and Johnson (hamstring) could return this week. Running game on fire – Arian Foster 351 yards, 4 TDs last three games, and Houston second in league at 155.1 ypg. Bucs awful ATS at home, with slides of 7-19 overall and 3-14 catching points.

Why Buccaneers cover: Need win to get back on track in NFC South, after back-to-back SU and ATS setbacks.

Total (45.5): Under has hit in Tampa’s last three games and four of Texans’ last six.

Washington at Miami (-4)

Why Redskins cover: It’s hard to find anyone much worse at betting window than Miami at home – Fish 17-48-1 ATS last 66 overall and have cashed just six of last 35 as home chalk.

Why Dolphins cover: Bolstered by first SU win of season last week, a 31-3 blowout of Chiefs as 4-point road pup. Plus, ‘Skins reeling after four consecutive SU and ATS defeats, all from underdog spot.

Total (37.5): Combine Redskins’ scoring output last three games, and it still falls well short of this total (31 points). And before Dolphins’ Week 9 outburst, they’d gone six games scoring 17 or less. Miami on 7-0 under run, Washington goes low six of last seven.

St. Louis at Cleveland (-3)

Why Rams cover: QB Sam Bradford, who returned last week after missing two games, should be more comfortable, and RB Steven Jackson looking more like old Steven Jackson – he racked up 130 yards in OT loss at Arizona, one week after going for 159 in upset of Saints. Cleveland just 2-12-2 ATS last 16.

Why Browns cover: Rams worst team in league this season ATS, with 1-7 mark matching SU record. And on road, St. Louis on pointspread purges of 0-6 overall and 0-5 as pup.

Total (37): Under 6-0-1 Rams’ last seven on highway, including last week at Arizona. Plus, St. Louis 31st in league, averaging meager 12.5 ppg; Browns not much better at 14.9 ppg (29th).

New Orleans at Atlanta (-1)

Why Saints cover: Drew Brees & Co. putting up average of 31.9 ppg, second-best in league and more than 8 ppg better than Atlanta (23.6). And good competition aids Saints at betting window, where they are 8-3 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams.

Why Falcons cover: Warming up with three consecutive SU and ATS victories, and Mike Smith’s troops surely eager to face chief NFC South rival. Saints 1-5 ATS last six on highway.

Total (49.5): At first glance, plenty of offensive firepower, with Brees leading New Orleans and Matt Ryan at helm for Atlanta. But under has hit in 12 of Saints’ last 14 division affairs, and Falcons currently on 4-0 under stretch.

Buffalo at Dallas (-5.5)

Why Bills cover: Eager to prove 4-1 SU start was no fluke, after dropping two of last three SU (1-1-1 ATS). Dallas needs a Claritin developed for its favorite’s allergy – 2-10-1 ATS last 13 in that spot.

Why Cowboys cover: Need to get back on track in NFC East before Giants run away with division. And for past few years, this is month Dallas gets its act together, going 16-6 ATS last 22 in November.

Total (48): Dallas has posted four straight unders, and total has gone low last two for Bills. But Buffalo opened year with six consecutive overs, and Cowboys at home lately a good over bet at 10-3 last 13.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Cincinnati

Why Steelers cover: Defending AFC champs sit third in AFC North, looking up at previously woeful Cincy, so Steelers can’t overlook this game. And if it’s a good bounceback team you want, Pittsburgh could be that team, with streaks of 6-0 ATS off SU loss and 7-1 ATS off non-cover. Plus, this rivalry belongs to Mike Tomlin’s squad, which is 7-2 ATS last nine overall and 8-1-1 ATS last 10 in Cincy.

Why Bengals cover: Why not? Cincy perhaps biggest surprise of season, losing longtime QB Carson Palmer, yet thriving behind rookie QB Andy Dalton and stout defense (17.5 ppg, fourth). Among hottest teams in league against oddsmakers, winning and cashing five straight to go with ATS rolls of 10-1 overall and 6-0 catching points.

Total (41.5): Lots of over trends for both squads, including Steelers stretches of 4-0 in division and 5-1 in roadies, and 4-0 with Cincy a home ‘dog.

Denver at Kansas City (-3.5)

Why Broncos cover: Despite 3-5 SU and ATS record, only one game out of lead in pathetic AFC Worst, er, West. And K.C., after winning and covering four straight to get season back on track, just got hammered at home by previously winless Dolphins.

Why Chiefs cover: At height of embarrassment in loss to Miami, so that alone should motivate K.C. to give its home fans a better effort this year. Denver in ATS ruts of 1-5-1 after SU win and 1-9-1 after spread-cover.

Total (41): This rivalry tends to go over, at 6-2 last eight overall and 8-2 last 10 at Arrowhead.

Jacksonville (-3) at Indianapolis

Why Jaguars cover: They’re not very good, but they’re playing right team to get well in winless Colts. And it appears it’s the Jags’ turn to cover in this rivalry – squads have alternated ATS wins last six meetings, with Indy winning SU and ATS last December in most recent contest.

Why Colts cover: Well, they carry almost entirely negative ATS streaks, but Jags not much better, with spread-covering slides of 3-7-1 overall and 5-11 against losing teams.

Total (37.5): Over 6-1 last seven Jags-Colts meetings, but keep in mind Jags have rookie QB in Blaine Gabbert and average league-low 12.3 ppg. And Colts still don’t have Peyton Manning.

Baltimore (-6.5) at Seattle

Why Ravens cover: Get to face punching bag from NFC West, league’s worst division. Proof? Seahawks tied for second in division with 2-6 SU mark. John Harbaugh also fields No. 2 defense in points allowed (16.3 ppg) and yards allowed (279.4 ypg). And oh yeah, Seattle still starts Tarvaris Jackson at QB.

Why Seahawks cover: Cashed four of last five at home, and Ravens tend to play down to level of competition lately, getting beat SU and ATS at Jacksonville and losing ATS at home against Arizona.

Total (41): Ravens defense and Seahawks offense (15.3 ppg) aside, both teams have lots of over streaks, including 7-2 overall for Baltimore, 14-5 overall for Seattle and 7-2 for ‘Hawks at home.

N.Y. Giants at San Francisco (-3.5)

Why Giants cover: Coming off big road win vs. Patriots, and QB Eli Manning proving he likes spotlight, engineering two fourth-quarter TD drives in Foxborough. New York has won and cashed three straight roadies, and Tom Coughlin’s troops solid on highway and as underdog, with ATS surges of 30-13 on road, 15-7 catching points and 14-6 as road pup.

Why 49ers cover: Haven’t lost decision at betting window all season, going league-best 7-0-1, including current roll of six consecutive SU and ATS wins. RB Frank Gore helping Niners control clock with five straight 100-yard games, and San Fran defense No. 1 in NFL at 14.8 ppg. Niners have cashed seven straight in favorite’s role.

Total (42.5): Over has been play five of last six at San Fran.

Detroit at Chicago (-2.5)

Why Lions cover: Well rested, coming off bye week after pounding Denver 45-10 on road two weeks ago to halt two-game SU and ATS skid. Too many positive ATS runs to mention, but here are a few: 18-7-2 overall, 5-0-1 on highway and 6-0 getting points.

Why Bears cover: Looking much more like team that reached NFC title game last season, winning three in a row SU and ATS, including impressive outright victory Monday night at Philly as whopping 9-point underdog. RB Matt Forte (805 yards rushing, 436 yards receiving) a multithreat who can keep Lions’ aggressive defense honest. And Chicago looking to avenge 24-13 loss at Detroit last month

Total (45.5): Almost all trends for both teams point to over, which is 6-0-1 Lions’ last seven roadies and 6-1 with Bears a chalk. That said, under 5-0 in Bears’ last five vs. winning teams.

New England at N.Y. Jets (-1)

Why Patriots cover: Bill Belichick loves nothing more than to shut Rex Ryan’s mouth, something he did last month in 30-21 home win as 7.5-point favorite. And Belichick has surely had enough of losing, with Pats falling SU and ATS to Steelers and Giants last two weeks – first time since 2009 season that New England has lost two in row. Then there’s this: Patriots haven’t lost three in row SU since 2002 season.

Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan loves nothing more than sticking it to coach he pretends to admire above all others – as he did in AFC playoffs last season. Gang Green upended host Buffalo last week to win and cover for third straight game, after 0-3 SU and ATS dive. Home team 5-1 ATS last six in this rivalry.

Total (47.5): Over 4-0-1 last five Pats-Jets contests, and over generally strong for New England, but total has gone low for Pats in three straight and four of last five.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-13)

Why Vikings cover: That’s a huge number against archrival in prime-time spotlight, especially considering Vikes gave Packers all they could handle just three weeks ago in 33-27 loss as 10-point ‘dog. Minny RB Adrian Peterson was beast in that game, with 175 rushing yards; he could help Vikes control clock and keep lethal Pack offense off field. Green Bay 7-16-2 ATS last 25 laying more than 10 points.

Why Packers cover: Just too damn good, plain and simple. Haven’t lost SU in nearly an entire season, with 14 consecutive victories and 11-3 ATS mark in that span. QB Aaron Rodgers putting up video-game numbers (24 TDs, 3 INTs) for offense that leads league at 34.4 ppg – 13 better than Minnesota (21.5 ppg). Pack 12-3-1 ATS last 16 at home; Vikes on ATS dives of 5-11 on road, 1-6-1 in NFC North and 0-4 on Monday night.

Total (51.5): Teams combined for 60 points last month, and total has gone high in six of last seven clashes, including all three at Lambeau Field.

[Udog]

NFL

Week 10

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NFL total bias: Week 10's best over/under bets
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Chicago Bears coach Lovie Smith spilled the beans on the NFL’s dirty little secret earlier this week.

Coaches use all types of motivational tactics to get their teams ready for battle each Sunday, from press quotes and inspirational speakers to cash bonuses and now, pointspreads directly from Las Vegas.

As we all know, the NFL is more than happy its loyal fan base makes up the vast majority of action sportsbooks take in every year, even though you’ll never hear Roger Goodell admit it.

Not Lovie. He’s all over the numbers and put them on the table for his team as the Bears got ready for Week 9’s huge matchup with the Eagles.

“We’re a good football team, not getting a whole lot of respect,” Smith told reporters after the Bears put a 30-24 beating on Philadelphia Monday night. “The Chicago Bears shouldn’t be 8-point underdogs when we come and play a team. Our guys took notice of that.”

You can bet the farm Goodell did too.

But as much as many would like to sweep spread talk under the rug, it isn’t going anywhere, especially after the developments in New Jersey Tuesday night that saw sports gambling take another step toward respectability.

Five years ago, you’d be hard pressed to hear a whisper of a pointspread on ESPN. Now, you can barely turn on the television without stumbling across at least a passing mention about a bad beat, a backdoor cover or a topped total.

It’s been a great week for those of us who have fought the good fight for the right to lay down a few bucks on a sporting event. And it’s about time people in the NFL acknowledge what’s right in front of their face.

As a card-carrying Bears fan, I couldn’t be happier Smith put the NFL on notice with his spread speak. I didn’t even get a bet down on Chicago for the big win, but that victory feels a hell of a lot better than most of my paydays this season.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3, 45)

The last time the Bears and Lions hooked up, the Detroit crowd at Ford Field earned a game ball for helping derail Chicago’s offense with a wave of sound. When Jay Cutler wasn’t running for his life, the refs were blowing plays dead as one Bear after another jumped the gun.

This time will be different. Mike Martz has finally seen the light, realizing the importance of keeping his quarterback upright. Chicago is using a ton of two-tight end sets and didn’t allow a sack in the win over Philly, while rolling out 33 passing plays to 33 rushing plays. That ends up being awfully hard to defend, the way Matt Forte is playing.

Meanwhile, Detroit’s offense got back on track after a couple off weeks with 45 points against Denver and it’s not like the Bears (or anybody else) has found a way to neutralize Calvin Johnson.

Pick: Over


New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 42.5)

Just how many “elite” quarterbacks are there in the NFL anyway? According to 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh, Alex Smith is the latest signal caller making the jump.

“I think people that know football and understand the game appreciate Alex Smith as a very talented quarterback,” Harbaugh told reporters. “He’s every bit the elite quarterback as there is playing in the game right now.”

That sure is a nice pat on the back. But c’mon coach.

We’ll see what Smith is made of against this pass rush, especially if Frank Gore’s wonky ankle slows him down. Meanwhile, Eli could be without Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks as well.

Pick: Under


New England Patriots at New York Jets (-2, 47.5)

Bill Belichick always has a little something up his sleeve for Rex Ryan’s defense, but it’s starting to look like the rest of the league is catching on to the Pats.

Wes Welker is getting doubled on almost every snap and Tom Brady is having trouble finding other consistent playmakers. New England’s tight ends are still a handful in the red zone, though the club is averaging fewer than 20 points over its last three games.

New York has rebounded to win and cover after dropping three consecutive games and should be able to keep this one from turning into the usual shootout between the two rivals.

Pick: Under

Last week’s record 1-2
Season record to date: 14-13


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[Udog]

NFL

Week 10

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NFL betting weather report: Week 10
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Wind and rain are in the cards for a few of Week 10’s NFL matchups. Here’s how weather could impact your bets:

St. Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 37)

Rain is in the forecast for Cleveland, with a 30 percent chance of showers. Wind will also be a factor, blowing south across the field at speeds of up to 20 mph.

Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (+6.5, 41)

Surprise, surprise – there’s rain in the forecast for Seattle. There’s a 29 percent chance of showers with winds blowing SW at speeds of up to 15 mph at CenturyLink Field.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 45)

The forecast for the Windy City is calling for rain, with a 25 percent chance of showers. And, of course, wind will play a role at Soldier Field, blowing WSW at speeds of up to 26 mph.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: NFL Week 10 lines moves

Lines are on the move at the sportsbook. We talked to Jay Rood, sportsbook manager for the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest adjustments on the Week 10 board.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons – Open: +1, Move: -1

The Falcons opened as a slight home dog, but money on the hosts has flipped the spread, with Atlanta sitting at -1 heading into the weekend.

“I think that home record of the Falcons is the driving force behind this one,” says Rood. “Everyone looks at that record and is quick to get it at this price.”

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears – Open: Pick, Move: -3

Rood has taken straight-wager money on the Bears but almost all parlays are connected to the Lions. Sharps were all over the Eagles in last week’s game against Chicago, so Rood isn’t sure where this line will finish by kickoff Sunday.

“We don’t want to drop this to Bears -2.5,” says Rood. “If we do that, sharps will come in and see the home side under a field goal.”

New England Patriots at New York Jets – Open: +2.5, Move: -2

Rood opened Jets -1.5 and took a limit play which moved the spread to -2. New York has strung together three straight wins and has the offense going after a slow start to the season. However, betting against the Patriots is always a slippery slope.

“I subscribe to A.B.B. – Always Bet Belichick,” says Rood. “But after getting burned two weeks in a row, it’s tough for bettors to come back on New England.”