The Bum's CFB Week # 11 Best Bets 11/8-11/12 !

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, November 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

South Florida - 8:00 PM ET Syracuse +3 500

Syracuse - Over 52 500

[Kaptain]

Thanks Podna

Friday, November 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

South Florida - 8:00 PM ET Syracuse +3 500

Syracuse - Over 52 500

get em in for us BUM.......gl tonight

[StarDust Bum]

South Florida at Syracuse

November 11, 2011

Three weeks after trashing West Virginia by a 49-23 count in a Friday night ESPN game, Syracuse (5-4 straight up, 3-6 against the spread) is back in the national spotlight tonight for another Big East matchup on ESPN’s family of networks. This time around, the Orange will take on South Florida at the Carrier Dome.

Most betting shops are listing South Florida (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) as a 3 1/2-point favorite with a total of 51 ½. Gamblers can take the ‘Cuse on the money line for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160).

Doug Marrone’s team returns home after losing back-to-back Big East road games. The ‘Cuse lost a 28-21 decision at UConn last Saturday as a two-point underdog. The Huskies outscored the Orange 14-0 in the final stanza.

Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw a pair of costly interceptions. The Orange had 365 yards of total offense compared to UConn’s 311 but came up short nonetheless.

USF has lost four consecutive games and has dropped five in a row ATS. The Bulls started the year with four straight wins, including an upset victory at Notre Dame in Week 1, but they are simply fighting for a bowl bid at this point after losing at Pitt (44-17), at UConn (16-10), vs. Cincy (37-34) and at Rutgers (20-17 in overtime).

USF junior QB B.J. Daniels is enjoying an excellent season, throwing for 2,027 yards with a 12/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. Daniels, a product of Tallahassee Lincoln High School’s powerhouse prep program, can also get it done with his legs. He has rushed for 432 yards and four touchdowns.

Darrell Scott is USF’s leading rusher this season, gaining 612 yards on 108 carries. Scott has five rushing TDs and a 5.7 yards-per-carry average. Daniels’ favorite target is sophomore wide receiver Sterling Griffin, who has 40 receptions for 493 yards and two TDs. However, Griffin just went down with a season-ending injury and he won't be available tonight.

Nassib has completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,960 yards with an 18/6 TD-INT ratio. The Orange’s leading receiver is Alec Lemon, who has 47 catches for 531 yards and four TDs. Nick Provo has 39 receptions for 410 yards and six TDs.

Syraucse’s ground game is all about senior RB Antwon Bailey, who has 798 rushing yards and six TDs on 177 totes for a 4.5 YPC average.

When these Big East rivals met last year in Tampa, Syracuse captured a 13-9 win as an eight-point underdog. Daniels struggled mightily for the Bulls, connecting on just 9-of-23 throws with a pair of interceptions. In the five previous meetings, USF won each time both SU and ATS.

The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for the ‘Cuse, 3-2 in its home games. Meanwhile, totals have been an overall wash for USF (4-4) but the ‘under’ has cashed at a 3-1 clip in its four road assignments.

Syracuse has won four of its five home games this year, going 3-2 versus the number. As for USF, it has lost three in a row both SU and ATS on the road since winning at Notre Dame as previously mentioned.

As a home underdog during Marrone’s three-year tenure, the ‘Cuse has compiled a 4-4 spread record. The Bulls are 0-3 both SU and ATS as road favorites under Skip Holtz.

ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--To win the SEC East and return to the Ga. Dome, South Carolina will need to beat Florida and hope Auburn can upset Georgia. Most books are listing the Gamecocks as 3 ½-point favorites with a total of 40 ½. They gave up the division lead for the first time this year by dropping a 44-28 decision at Arkansas last week. QB Connor Shaw sustained a concussion late in the fourth quarter against the Hogs, but he has been cleared to play and did practice on Wednesday. The Gators, who are plus-150 on the money line, ended their first four-game losing streak since 1988 with last Saturday’s 26-21 win over Vanderbilt. However, they failed to take the cash as 13 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ UF owes USC one after Steve Spurrier’s squad came into The Swamp and dealt out woodshed treatment in the form of a 36-14 clubbing to clinch the school’s first trip to the SEC Championship Game since joining the league in 1992.

--The Penn State Board of Trustees was left with no choice but to fire Joe Paterno late last night. The decision was a complete no-brainer. I didn’t have that opinion until I read the grand jury report late Wednesday afternoon. For anyone that disagrees with Paterno’s dismissal, I urge you to read the grand jury report. Once you do, you’ll understand. Again, it was a complete no-brainer.

--LSU falls into the classic letdown situation Saturday night when it hosts Western Kentucky as a 42-point home favorite. Granted, it’s been against Sun Belt competition, but I have to point out that the Hilltoppers have won five consecutive games. They are 3-0 ATS on the road this year, 3-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs.

--Tennessee has scored 28 total points in its last four SEC games. The Volunteers are 14-point underdogs Saturday at Arkansas. I thought the Razorbacks should’ve been favored by 17.

--Click here to check out my Power Rankings going into Week 11.

--Miami and FSU play each other Saturday. Who knew?!

[StarDust Bum]

Oregon at Stanford

November 11, 2011


In what will undoubtedly be the most important college football game ever played in Palo Alto, Stanford will host Oregon on Saturday night in a crucial Pac-12 showdown with national implications.

Most betting shops have installed Stanford (9-0 straight up, 9-0 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of total of 68. However, we should note that the Las Vegas Hilton moved the number to three and had a total of 69 as of early Friday evening. The Ducks are plus-150 on the money line (risk $100 to win $150).

David Shaw’s team has won eight of its nine games by 25 points or more. Shaw’s squad was tested in Corvallis last week, as Oregon State trailed by only four (17-13) late in the third quarter. But Stanford turned it on in the final 18 minutes, scoring 21 unanswered points en route to a 38-13 win as a 20 ½-point favorite.

Andrew Luck completed 20-of-30 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns against the Beavers. Stepfan Taylor rushed 13 times for 95 yards, while Tyler Gaffney tallied 56 yards and one TD on 12 carries.

The win was bittersweet for the Cardinal, however, as it lost senior wide receiver Chris Owusu to a concussion. For the third time this year, Owusu took a vicious hit to the head/neck area and was taken off the field on a stretcher. He is ‘out’ this week but might be able to return later this season. Owusu has 35 receptions for 376 yards and two TDs this year.

Stanford sophomore tight end Zach Ertz was also lost for an indefinite period of time after sustaining a knee injury. The Cardinal is deep at the TE position, but it will nonetheless miss Ertz and his 22 catches for 308 yards and three TDs.

Oregon (8-1 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) has won eight in a row since losing to LSU in the season opener. The Ducks are off a 34-17 win at Washington as 16 ½-point road favorites last week.

LaMichael James was the catalyst with 156 rushing yards and one touchdown on 25 carries. Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas also rushed for one TD apiece.

Chip Kelly’s squad has been dynamite in three road games this year, compiling a 3-0 record both SU and ATS with convincing wins at Arizona (56-31), at Colorado (45-2) and at Washington.

This is the first underdog spot for Oregon this season. In fact, this is just the second road ‘dog situation for the Ducks since Chip Kelly was hired before the 2009 campaign. In the previous game as a road ‘dog in the ’09 season opener, Oregon got thumped 19-8 at Boise St. in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated.

Since 2008, Stanford has cashed tickets at a 13-5 ATS clip in 18 games as a road favorite.

The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for the Ducks, but they have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 in their three true road assignments. As for Stanford, it has watched the ‘under’ go 5-4 overall but the ‘over’ is 3-1 in its four home games.

Sportsbook.com is offering a slew of proposition bets for this Pac-12 showdown. For instance, the ‘over/under’ for Oregon’s points scored is 32 ½ and Stanford’s is 36. Both totals have 30-cent lines and therefore are available at a minus-115 price.

Andrew Luck’s total for completions is 23 ½ at the offshore website. Luck’s total for passing yards is 300 ½. Also, Taylor’s ‘over/under’ for rushing yards is 95.5 flat (minus-115 either way).

As for Oregon, RB LaMichael James has a total of 135 ½ for his rushing yards. Meanwhile, Darron Thomas has an ‘over/under’ for completions (14 ½).

When these teams met in Eugene last season, Stanford raced out to a 21-3 lead in the first quarter. However, the Ducks stormed back and outscored the Cardinal 28-0 in the second half, eventually winning by a 52-31 score as 6 ½-point home favorites.

Luck threw for 341 yards and two TDs but he was also picked off twice. Taylor rushed for 113 yards and one TD on 17 carries. Thomas led the winners with 239 passing yards and three TDs, in addition to 117 rushing yards and one score. James also had a huge performance, finishing with 257 rushing yards and three TDs on 31 carries.

ABC will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--By the second Saturday of November, we usually have a solid favorite to the Heisman Trophy, but that’s not the case in 2011. Sportsbook.com has Alabama running back Trent Richardson listed as the plus-400 ‘chalk’ (risk $100 to win $400). The second-shortest odds are shared by Stanford’s Luck and Boise St. QB Kellen Moore, both of whom have plus-500 odds. Houston QB Case Keenum and Oklahoma St. signal caller Brandon Weeden have plus-800 and plus-1200 odds, respectively.

--BoDog’s updated future odds look like this: LSU is the plus-150 favorite (risk $100 to win $150, followed by Alabama (+350), Oregon (+400), Oklahoma State (+525), Stanford (+600). Boise St. is a 16/1 longshot.

--Sportsbook.com has these numbers for upcoming college football games in its Games of the Year section:

Boise St. -22 at San Diego St.
Ohio St. -3.5 vs. Penn St.
Texas A&M -4 vs. Texas
Alabama -16 at Auburn
Mississippi St. -14 vs. Ole Miss
Clemson -1 at South Carolina
Michigan -5 vs. Ohio St.
LSU -15.5 vs. Arkansas
FSU -4 at Florida
Stanford -9.5 vs. Notre Dame

[StarDust Bum]

TCU-Boise State meet at MWC unbeatens

TCU HORNED FROGS (7-2)
at BOISE STATE BRONCOS (8-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Boise State -15, Total: 58

No. 5 Boise State will get its toughest test of the season when 7-2 TCU steps on the blue turf on Saturday afternoon in what is being billed as the unofficial Mountain West championship game.

This will be the teams’ first regular-season meeting, having played each other in three bowls since 2003, including the 2010 Fiesta Bowl that Boise won 17-10. Horned Frogs QB Casey Pachall (19 TD, 5 INT) and RB Ed Wesley (528 rushing yards in five games) have their team riding a four-game win streak, while Broncos QB Kellen Moore continues his Heisman push with 2,229 yards, 29 TD and 5 INT this season. Moore has thrown at least 2 TD in 21 straight games, but has zero touchdowns in two meetings with the Frogs. TCU is a hard team to blow out, having not lost by more than a touchdown since Oklahoma wacked them 35-10 in September 2008. And Boise has been a woeful home bet recently, going 3-8 ATS in its past 11 games on the blue turf, including 0-3 ATS this season. The pick here is TCU keep the score tight and to cover.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also support the Horned Frogs:

TCU is 18-4 ATS (81.8%, +13.6 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. The average score was TCU 37.1, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (BOISE STATE) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%). (37-12 since 1992.) (75.5%, +23.8 units. Rating = 3*).

TCU has won 21 straight conference games, and rushed for a season-high 390 yards in last week’s 31-20 win over Wyoming. Waymon James led the way with 181 yards on just 12 carries (15.1 YPC), but Wesley had 120 yards and two touchdowns while Matthew Tucker also scored twice and ran for 90 yards on 12 carries (7.5 YPC). The Frogs turned the ball over five times though, and allowed the Cowboys to throw for 247 yards.

Boise State also won big last week, punishing UNLV 48-21 on the road. Moore threw five touchdown passes, with two going to Tyler Shoemaker and two going to Matt Miller. However, the Broncos’ best RB, Doug Martin, suffered a leg injury and may not be able to play on Saturday. Martin (756 rushing yards, 5.5 YPC) was replaced by senior D.J. Harper who rushed for 109 yards on just 13 carries (8.4 YPC), and scored on a 36-yard TD run. Boise’s also got some injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball as DE Billy Winn and CB Jamar Taylor (leg) were unable to play against UNLV and may not suit up again on Saturday. The Broncos failed to force a turnover for the first time this season, having tallied 17 takeaways in the first seven games this year.

[StarDust Bum]

Paterno-less Penn State hosts No. 19 Nebraska

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (7-2)
at PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (8-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Nebraska -3, Total: 43

For the first time in 46 years, No. 12 Penn State will not be coached by Joe Paterno when it takes the field against No. 19 Nebraska.

Paterno was fired by the university’s trustees on Wednesday amid the ongoing child sex abuse case involving Jerry Sandusky, a former assistant of Paterno’s. Defensive coordinator Tom Bradley was promoted to interim head coach to take the place of Paterno, the all-time winningest coach in Division I history with 409 victories. Among many other much more important things, the scandal has also marred what has been an incredible season for the Nittany Lions on the field. Since losing to Alabama, they have reeled off seven straight victories, although their ATS mark is a subpar 2-4-1 during this span. Nebraska was also riding high until last week, when it lost at home to 17.5-point underdog Northwestern. The Nittany Lions won at Northwestern two games ago and are well-rested coming off a bye week. They rank third in the nation in scoring defense (12.4 PPG) and place eighth in total defense (282 YPG). But there are just too many emotions on Penn State’s campus for the team’s focus to completely be on football and facing Nebraska. PSU has played a pretty soft schedule during its win streak, and expect a hungry NEBRASKA team (8-1 ATS when playing teams with a 75% win pct. since 2009) to leave what used to be Happy Valley on Senior Day with a victory.

This FoxSheets trend also backs the Cornhuskers:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PENN STATE) - off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival, when playing on a Saturday. (37-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.2%, +20.5 units. Rating = 2*).

A week after totaling 80 passing yards, Huskers QB Taylor Martinez threw for a season-high 289 yards in the loss to the Wildcats. But for Nebraska to be truly effective, Martinez needs to use his legs more. In the past three weeks, he has 128 yards and zero touchdowns on 34 carries (3.8 YPC), which is way down from his 16.7 carries per game, 584 yards and 9 TD in the first six weeks of the season. Leading rusher Rex Burkhead (951 rushing yards, 13 TD) was held to 69 yards on 22 carries against Northwestern, but he has been a monster on the road this season with 383 yards (6.8 YPC) and 4 TD in three away games.

Nebraska’s Blackshirts defense has not been too fearsome this year, allowing 27+ points in five of nine games. The Huskers currently rank 41st in total defense (349 YPG) and are a dismal 114th in Tackles For Loss (4.0 per game).

Penn State has been carried by its defense, but its offense has had its moments, mostly from sophomore RB Silas Redd, who ranks third in the conference in rushing (112 YPG) on the heels of five straight rushing efforts of 125 yards or more. QB Matt McGloin has been serviceable on most days, but he was horrible in the last game against Illinois, connecting on just 9-of-24 passes for 98 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Three WRs comprise 70 percent of the team’s receiving yards: Derek Moye (514 yds), Justin Brown (393 yds) and Devon Smith (314 yds).

Senior DL Devon Still ranks fifth in the nation with 15.5 Tackles for Loss, while blitz-happy DB Gerald Hodges has a team-high 4.5 sacks. Penn State ranks 12th in the country in TFL (7.7 per game) and 28th in sacks (2.6 per game).

[StarDust Bum]

Early games:

Saturday, November 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Rice - 12:00 PM ET Rice +16.5 500
Northwestern -

Pittsburgh - 12:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +3 500
Louisville - Over 45.5 500

Texas - 12:00 PM ET (Missouri +1.5 500 BIG 12 SURPRISE )
Missouri - Over 58.5 500

Marshall - 12:00 PM ET Tulsa -19.5 500
Tulsa -

Nebraska - 12:00 PM ET (Penn State +3 500 THIS ONE IS FOR JOE PA )
Penn State -

Wake Forest - 12:00 PM ET Clemson -16.5 500
Clemson -

West Virginia - 12:00 PM ET Cincinnati -4 500
Cincinnati -

Michigan State - 12:00 PM ET Iowa +2.5 500
Iowa -

Ohio State - 12:00 PM ET Purdue +8 500
Purdue -

Florida - 12:00 PM ET South Carolina -3 500
South Carolina - Over 41 500

Oklahoma State - 12:00 PM ET Oklahoma State -20 500
Texas Tech -

Kentucky - 12:21 PM ET Vanderbilt -13.5 500
Vanderbilt -

North Carolina State - 12:30 PM ET North Carolina State -2.5 500
Boston College -

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +3.5 500
Eastern Michigan -

North Texas - 1:00 PM ET Troy -8 500
Troy -

Kent State - 2:00 PM ET Akron +4.5 500
Akron -

Baylor - 2:00 PM ET ( Baylor -20.5 500 ROLLS )
Kansas -

Wyoming - 2:00 PM ET Wyoming +16.5 500
Air Force -

Arizona - 2:30 PM ET Colorado +10.5 500
Colorado -

Duke - 3:00 PM ET Duke +10 500
Virginia -

UL Lafayette - 3:00 PM ET Arkansas State -11 500
Arkansas State -

San Jose State - 3:00 PM ET San Jose State +10 500
Utah State -

Miami - 3:30 PM ET Miami +9.5 500
Florida State -

Auburn - 3:30 PM ET Auburn +11.5 500
Georgia -

Wisconsin - 3:30 PM ET Wisconsin -27 500
Minnesota -

Michigan - 3:30 PM ET Michigan +1.5 500
Illinois - Over 48 500

Texas A&M - 3:30 PM ET Texas A&M -5.5 500
Kansas State -

Middle Tennessee - 3:30 PM ET Middle Tennessee +6 500
UL Monroe -

Navy - 3:30 PM ET Southern Methodist -8 500
Southern Methodist -

Texas Christian - 3:30 PM ET Texas Christian +16 500
Boise State -

Rutgers - 3:30 PM ET Army +9 500
Army -

Washington - 3:45 PM ET (Washington +11 500 PAC 12 DOG )
Southern California -

Alabama-Birmingham - 4:15 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham -5 500
Memphis -

Tennessee - 6:00 PM ET Arkansas -14.5 500
Arkansas -

Florida Atlantic - 6:00 PM ET Florida International -17.5 500
Florida International -

San Diego State - 6:00 PM ET Colorado State +13.5 500
Colorado State -

Oregon State - 6:30 PM ET California -9 500
California -

UCLA - 6:30 PM ET UCLA +7 500
Utah -

[BillMill71]

Good Luck SDB

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Action:

Western Kentucky - 7:00 PM ET Western Kentucky +41.5 50
Louisiana State - Over 49.5 500

Louisiana Tech - 7:30 PM ET Louisiana Tech -1 500
Mississippi -

Maryland - 7:30 PM ET Maryland +20.5 500
Notre Dame -

Alabama - 7:45 PM ET Alabama -17.5 500
Mississippi State -

Oregon - 8:00 PM ET Stanford -2.5 500
Stanford - Over 71 500

Fresno State - 8:00 PM ET New Mexico State +7 500
New Mexico State -

Central Florida - 8:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi -9 500
Southern Mississippi -

East Carolina - 8:00 PM ET East Carolina +3.5 500
Texas El Paso -

Idaho - 9:15 PM ET Idaho +22.5 500
Brigham Young -

UNLV - 10:00 PM ET New Mexico +7 500
New Mexico -

Hawaii - 10:15 PM ET Hawaii +16 500
Nevada - Under 62 500

Arizona State - 10:30 PM ET Arizona State -11.5 500
Washington State -

[Kaptain]

thanks BUM....on a few of them bold face ones myself......get em in PODNA