The Bum's CFB Week # 11 Best Bets 11/8-11/12 !

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Wake Forest Looks For Upset At Clemson Tigers

No team has come from deeper in the pack towards a possible payday in a BCS bowl than the Clemson Tigers. Dabo Swinney will try to keep the improbable run going Saturday at home where his Tigers can clinch an ACC Atlantic Division title with a win over the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

Oddsmakers opened Clemson at -15½, and that number has been pushed up to 16½ in early wagering. Saturday's game total is 60.

The Tigers began the season just outside the top 30 on the Don Best Linemakers Poll, and 40th according to the coaches who vote in the ESPN/USA Today rankings. Clemson was a 12/1 choice back in August to win its first ACC title since 1991, those odds putting the Tigers sixth in the conference.

Four of the five schools that were ahead of Clemson on the ACC list have fallen victim to the Tigers this season (Florida State, Virginia Tech, Maryland and North Carolina). The fifth team was the Miami Hurricanes who were not on Clemson's 2011 slate.

Back-to-back wins over the Seminoles and Hokies served notice that prognosticators were dead wrong about the Tigers. Clemson has risen roughly 20 spots to 11th in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, and sits ninth in the BCS.

Credit the offense for Clemson's success so far, and a big part of that offense has been true freshman Sammy Watkins.

The 18-year-old out of Fort Myers, FL, ranks third in the nation in all-purpose yards, averaging nearly 187 per game. That's only seven yards per game less than Oregon Ducks tailback LaMichael James who leads the country, and Watkins has posted his total while involved in over 40 fewer plays this season than James.

Watkins has become a favorite target for soph QB Tajh Boyd, the pair hooking up 64 times already with 10 of those putting six on the board for Clemson. Stopping this tandem will be of paramount importance for Wake Forest, a task that will be difficult for the country's 74th-ranked pass defense.

It's been two weeks since the team's hopes for an unbeaten season came to an end in a 31-17 loss at Georgia Tech, another team preseason pundits had wrong with the Yellow Jackets 25/1 to win the ACC. Swinney and his staff probably would have found it more difficult to put that defeat out of their players' minds without the open date this past Saturday.

The two weeks off also served to give top running back Andre Ellington extra time to recover from an ankle injury he suffered in the Oct. 22 victory over North Carolina. The junior has rushed for nearly 750 yards in what amounts to just seven full games, breaking the plane seven times for touchdowns. His presence on Saturday will help Boyd and Watkins tremendously.

Wake Forest is having a surprisingly good season as well considering the Demon Deacons were picked to be only slightly better than Duke among ACC squads. In fact, Jim Grobe's Deacs were enjoying a damn fine season in early October with a 4-1 record and fresh off an upset win over Florida State.

Things have pretty much gone downhill since then, however. Wake Forest has dropped three of four games following the victory over the 'Noles, the only win being a 24-23 squeaker as a 3-point favorite at the Blue Devils.

The Demon Deacons did at least give it the old college try last Saturday vs. Notre Dame. Wake Forest, getting 13½ on the college football betting board, took a 17-10 lead into the half but succumbed to the Irish, 24-17.

In addition to the loss, Wake Forest also came out of the Notre Dame game with several key injuries. Leading rusher Josh Harris (hamstring) is questionable, and the defensive line will be thinner with reserves Ramon Booi and John Gallagher both questionable with knee injuries.

Even with those players on the field, Wake faces a huge challenge as you'd expect with the spread. The Demon Deacons haven't won here at Death Valley since 1998; Clemson's five wins at home in that span have been by an average of 26 points. Wake Forest is just 1-3 against the spread in road tilts this campaign. If there's one thing the Deacs are playing for, it's the fact they need two wins in their next three games to become bowl eligible. Home dates with Maryland and Vanderbilt follow this contest.

Clemson has done a great job beating the number this season, 7-2 overall and 5-1 at home. The lone ATS loss was Week 2 when the Tigers survived a 35-27 scare as 26½-point chalk vs. Wofford.

Kickoff from Memorial Stadium in Clemson is slated for shortly after noon (ET) with ESPNU handling the broadcast chores. Weather forecasts are presently calling for a beautiful afternoon for football, clear skies and highs in the mid-60s.


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Georgia Bulldogs Host Auburn In Key SEC Clash

The Georgia Bulldogs have an SEC division title on their mind as they get ready to host the Auburn Tigers on Saturday afternoon.

Georgia is a hefty 13-point favorite at Don Best with a total of 52 ½-points. CBS will broadcast from Sanford Stadium in Athens at 3:30 p.m. (ET).

The Bulldogs haven’t made the SEC title game since 2005 when D.J. Shockley was the quarterback. However, they will clinch the East Division with a win over Auburn and a South Carolina loss to Florida earlier in the day. The conference championship will be held in nearby Atlanta, an extra motivation.

Coach Mark Richt was a ‘dead man walking’ after finishing 6-7 straight up last year and opening this season with tough losses versus Boise State (35-21) and South Carolina (45-42), failing to cover either. However, he has answered most of his critics with a current 7-game winning streak (6-1 against the spread).

The recent hot streak has Georgia ranked 15th in the BCS (Auburn is 20th). The Don Best Linemakers Poll has chimed with Georgia an even higher 12th and Auburn a much lower 32nd.

Georgia is coming off a 63-16 win over WAC New Mexico State as huge 34 ½-point home favorites. It was an offensive explosion (627 total yards) for a team that scored just 25.6 PPG in its prior five games, winning with a defense allowing 16.6 PPG over that span.

Sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray had five TDs last week and does a good job spreading the ball around. He has a very efficient 151.3 quarterback rating that ranks first among SEC signal callers. His 23 touchdown throws and 228.9 YPG rank first and second in the conference respectively.

Leading receiver Malcolm Mitchell (438 yards) is probable to return with a hamstring injury after missing the last three games.

The running game keeps the offense balanced enough at 175.6 YPG, sixth in the SEC. Freshman running back Isaiah Crowell (689 yards) returns this week after a 1-game suspension. The same goes for backup Carlton Thomas.

One of the big question marks for the Bulldogs is their level of competition. They miraculously don’t have SEC West powerhouses LSU, Alabama and Arkansas on the schedule and will be a heavy ‘dog if they face either of the first two in the SEC title game.

This is the first ranked team the Bulldogs have faced since South Carolina in Week 2 and they’re just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record.

Auburn (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) ended a 4-game losing streak to Georgia in November of last year (49-31) on the way to winning the national title. That game was very physical, with many saying it was dirty, and the ‘Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry’ (established 1892) could be extra nasty under the piles this week.

Auburn’s last game was a 41-23 win over Mississippi as 11-point favorites on October 29 (before a bye). Sophomore quarterback Clint Moseley had 160 passing yards, four TDs and no picks. It was just his second career start after struggling along with everyone else (45-10) at LSU the week before.

The Tigers had 254 rushing yards against Mississippi and will always feature that portion of the offense with the very dangerous combo of Michael Dyer (989 yards) and Onterio McCalebb (448 yards). There’s also a backup running quarterback in freshman Kiehl Frazier, although he got just four carries last game for eight yards.

Auburn is second in the SEC and 31st nationally with 191.1 YPG rushing. Georgia’s run defense is allowing only 91.1 YPG (ninth nationally), so something has to give there and could determine the game’s outcome.

Coach Gene Chizik’s guys have struggled on the road (1-3 SU and ATS). However the other three away games besides LSU were Clemson (38-24 loss), South Carolina (16-13 win) and Arkansas (38-14 loss). All four of those teams are currently in the top-13 in the BCS, so Auburn is battle tested in hostile environments.

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between the teams, including Auburn’s win last year as 7 ½-point favorites. The ‘over’ is 4-1-1 in the last six.

The Saturday weather forecast is very nice, sunny and reaching the 60s.


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Andrew Luck, Stanford Brace For Oregon Ducks

How big a story has Oregon-Stanford become this week? Even FOX News can’t escape the hype.

In an otherwise serious interview between Bill O’Reilly and former US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice (promoting her new book) on Monday night, the topic turned from foreign policy to football at Stanford, where Ms. Rice has worked for several years and returned recently as a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute and Director of the school’s Global Center for Business & the Economy.

But even the weighty topics of the day eventually gave way to college football, one of Ms. Rice’s favorite subjects. For the record, O’Reilly warned Ms. Rice that the Ducks were going to be a pretty tough opponent for her Stanford this week.

It’s all part of a remarkable narrative that has developed over the past five years regarding Stanford football. And the biggest college game in Palo Alto in over 40 years takes place Saturday night at Stanford Stadium, where the host entertains the Ducks in a Pac-12 North showdown.

The Don Best odds screen notes the Cardinal as a 3½-point favorite at the vast majority of Las Vegas betting shops, with the early-week total sitting at 66½. Kickoff time is 8:00 p.m. (ET), with ABC/ESPN (depending upon your area) providing the coverage.

The latest Don Best Linemakers Poll has Stanford rated at No. 4 in country and Oregon close behind in the sixth spot.

The stakes, as mentioned, are high. The winner almost assuredly will claim the title in the North half of the Pac-12 and the right to host the first conference title game vs. a substantial underdog from the southern half of the loop (likely Arizona State or UCLA). In the Cardinal’s case, a win also keeps it squarely in the frame for a spot in the BCS title game.

The Ducks’ BCS chances are also enhanced greatly by a win, although Oregon is going to require a significant parlay of losses by a handful of other teams to have a chance at a return to the BCS title game.

Before getting carried away with BCS ramifications, there’s the game itself on Saturday night. Recent history suggests to prepare for some fireworks, especially considering the last two meetings, wherein a combined 93 (a 51-42 Stanford win in 2009) and 83 (52-31 Oregon last season) points were scored. If Saturday’s showdown follows recent form, the posted total in the mid-to-high 60s might look a bit light.

Stanford’s presence in such featured games remains one of the more fascinating developments in college football over the past few years. This writer has followed Cardinal football closely over the years and can recall just five years ago, when Stanford threatened the big donut in 2006 and recorded a wretched 1-11 mark. Watching that Cardinal team in person in a late-season home game vs. Oregon State might have been the low point of Stanford football in the last half-century, with the stands one-third full and even many Stanford supporters wishing their team to lose so the program could move forward without coach Walt Harris, under whom the Cardinal had plumbed new depths of ineptitude.

We recall Stanford QB T.C. Ostrander observing a frightful beating that November, 2006 afternoon in a 30-7 loss to the Beavers and marvel at the strides the program has made in the 60 months since.

Last year’s meeting in Eugene was the only loss Stanford has endured since the 2010 season, with 17 straight wins since. Assuming a pointspead push two weeks ago at Southern Cal, The Cardinal have also not lost a spread decision in the last 12 outings.

Oregon’s speed, however, proved a problem for the Tree last year at Autzen Stadium, a game in which Stanford could not hold first-half leads of 21-3 or 31-24, which was the score at the break. The dam burst in the second half as the Ducks rolled off 28 straight points en route to 626 total yards.

Stanford’s defensive front is considered one of the most versatile in the country, but it will have its work cut out for it again. Especially since Oregon seems to have all hands healthy and on deck after injury scares to both QB Darron Thomas (knee) and RB LaMichael James (elbow) last month. Both have returned to action, however, with Thomas going the whole way in last week’s 41-24 win at Washington.

Oregon’s impressive skill-position depth was on display in their absences, however, with redshirt frosh QB Bryan Bennett proving little or no drop-off from Thomas, and Chip Kelly’s deep stable of running backs led by Kenjon Barner (6.5 ypc) and De’Anthony Thomas (8.5 ypc) hardly skipping a beat when James was out.

Thus, Stanford’s best defense is likely to be its well-balanced offense led by Heisman favorite QB Andrew Luck, who has 26 TD passes and only five interceptions this season. The big, road-grading Cardinal offensive line figures to play a big role on Saturday as well, paving the way for an underrated group of Stanford RBs led by Stepfan Taylor (879 YR and 6.0 ypc).

As is often the case in these battles, the more unheralded of the platoons is likely to provide the difference, which in the cases of the Ducks and Cardinal mean the respective defenses. Stanford’s 18th ranked stop unit would appear to own an edge over Oregon’s 62nd-ranked counterparts, although it should be noted that the Cardinal schedule was not overly demanding the first half of the season.

Stanford has also done a slightly better job in turnover margin, at +7 for the season, compared to +2 for the Ducks.

Whatever, be prepared for some fireworks from Palo Alto on Saturday night.


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Don Best Linemakers Poll Vs BCS Standings

LSU’s win at Tuscaloosa lifted the Tigers just ahead of the Crimson Tide.
Ten weeks of college football are in the books and after the huge battle between the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide, the schools are now switched on the Don Best Linemakers Poll.

LSU is the unanimous No. 1 no matter where you look, but ‘Bama only falls to No. 2 according to Kenny White. Last Saturday night, these teams showed that they were the best two defensive teams in college football. Nick Saban’s squad made some critical mistakes, however, in a very tight battle with what is now the top team on the DB Poll.

The Tide rank No. 3 in the BCS Standings.

A team being overrated by the BCS is the Oklahoma State Cowboys who now reside at No. 2 in the nation. With a weak defense, they only rank No. 5 on the Don Best Poll. Their biggest test will be the last game of the regular season against the Oklahoma Sooners who Kenny White has ranked at No. 3.

After losing on a miracle Hail Mary to Michigan State and then dropping in a classic bad spot for college teams a week later, the Wisconsin Badgers fell as low as No. 20 and are currently No. 18 in the BCS. However, just as predicted, Wisconsin bounced back and they remain at No. 8 on the DB Poll.

There is no knock on how QB Case Keenum and the Houston Cougars have played, but their schedule really prevents them from being placed any higher on any rankings system. Houston has been moving up on the Don Best Linemakers Poll, currently placed at No. 17 while the Cougs are No. 11 in the BCS.

South Carolina is another school that is overrated and it is reflected in the Linemakers Poll. The Gamecocks are ranked fairly high at No. 13 in the BCS while they are No. 24 according to White. They do have a ‘D’ that comes to play but they are not a top offensive team. South Carolina was shut down a week ago by an Arkansas defense that really isn’t great, either.

The biggest story out of college football does not have to do with Penn State’s play on the field, but scandal off the gridiron. Sticking strictly to football, though, the Nittany Lions are simply one of the more boring watches in the sport and are unimpressively ranked No. 12 in the BCS.

Meanwhile, their opponent this week in Nebraska is ranked higher at No. 18 on the DB Poll and is favored on the road in University Park, Pennsylvania. Although the Cornhuskers lost to Northwestern a week ago, the Linemakers Poll still stands behind Nebraska while Penn State is in a three-way tie for No. 25.


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DON BEST LINEMAKERS POLL - NCAA College Football Rankings
RANK TEAM RATING BCS
1 LSU 123.0 1
2 Alabama 122.5 3
3 Oklahoma 120.7 6
4 Stanford 120.5 4
5 Oklahoma St. 119.4 2
6 Oregon 118.5 7
7 Boise St. 117.5 5
8 Wisconsin 117.0 18
9 Arkansas 115.2 8
10 Florida St. 113.0 NR
11 Clemson 112.8 9
12 Georgia 112.6 15
13 Notre Dame 112.0 NR
14 Virginia Tech 111.9 10
15 Michigan St. 111.7 17
16 Michigan 111.1 24
17 Houston 110.7 11
18 Nebraska 110.6 19
T-19 Texas 110.2 16
T-19 Southern Cal 110.2 NR
21 Arizona St. 109.6 NR
22 Cincinnati 109.4 23
23 Ohio St. 109.2 NR
24 South Carolina 109.0 13
T-25 Texas A&M 108.9 NR
T-25 Penn St. 108.9 12
T-25 Southern Mississippi 108.9 22
28 Kansas State 108.1 14
29 TCU 108.0 NR
30 Georgia Tech 107.9 21

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...LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE?


Virginia Tech at GEORGIA TECH (Thursday)...VT overcame early 14-0 deficit in LY's rousing 28-21 series victory at Blacksburg. With game tied at 21, Hokies scored go-ahead TD on 90-yd. KO return with 2:23 left. Beamer's squad has won nation-leading 11 straight games on opponents' home field (7-3-1 vs. spread).

South Florida at SYRACUSE (Friday)...USF in bad mood after its 5-game series win streak (avg. 24-pt. victory) was snapped with 13-9 upset loss at Tampa LY. Bulls' starting QB B.J. Daniels was off target in that setback, hitting only 9 of 23 with 2 "picks."

Wyoming at AIR FORCE...AF has won 5 straight in series, but Falcons won't take Wyo lightly after needing 13 unanswered points in 4th Q to pull out 20-14 victory in Laramie LY. Last 4 in series have gone "under."

Kent State at AKRON...In rivalry pitting neighboring MAC teams (schools just 11.6 miles apart), the underdog has covered 7 of past 8 (with 5 upsets).

Rutgers vs. Army (at Yankee Stadium)...Rutgers had covered 6 straight in series until LY's 23-20 OT victory in East Rutherford (Knights were 61/2-pt. chalk).

Tcu at BOISE STATE...First reg.-season meeting between these two Mpimtasom West juggernauts, but they've met 3 times recently in cpmpetitive bowl games ('03, '08, '09) decided by total of 11 points.

North Carolina State at BOSTON COLLEGE...NCS mentor Tom O'Brien served as the BC HC from 1997-06. Last 4 in series have gone "over."

Oregon State at CAL (AT&T Park)....This clash is a big deal for Cal seniors, who've never defeated OSU, which has won last 4. Bears especially irked about LY's 35-7 thumping in Corvallis, losing their starting QB to injury in 1st Q. Cal finished with only 208 yards.

Florida Atlantic at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL...FIU fired-up to end consternating 5-game losing streak to I-95 rival FAU in the "Shula Bowl." By the way, it's called Shula Bowl because each school's first head coach (Panthers' Don Strock & Owls' Howard Schnellenberger) had ties to former Miami Dolphins HC Don Shula.

Miami-Florida at FLORIDA STATE...Underdog has covered and won 6 straight in hotly-contested rivalry (9 of last 10 in series decided by TD or fewer). Miami QB Jacory Harris eager for rematch after hitting 19 of 47 with 1 int. in 45-17 home defeat.

Auburn at GEORGIA...UGA excited for rematch after blowing 21-7 lead in 35-31 loss on The Plains LY. AU's Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton (accounted for 299 yds.) took over game in 4th Q, scoring 2 TDs in final 8:05. Host covered last 4 in series.

Michigan State at IOWA...MSU's veteran QB Kirk Cousins (3 ints.) and star RB Edwin Baker (meager 21 YR on 9 carries) have circled this date after lackluster efforts in 37-6 bludgeoning in East Lansing LY. Spartans seeking to end 7-game losing streak at Kinnick Stadium.

Pitt at LOUISVILLE...UL upperclassmen are geeked after enduring 3 straight lopsided series losses. Pitt in only its 3rd away game (0-2 vs. spread so far) after 7 home games so far in 2011.

Wisconsin at MINNESOTA...Annual battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe has gone "over" in 11 straight meetings!

Alabama at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Bama "CEO" Nick Saban continues to be a wise "investment," going 32-15 vs. line last 47 on board despite OT setback vs. LSU.

Texas at MISSOURI...Mizzou-which heavily recruits in the Lone Star State (31 native Texans on roster)-fired-up to end 6-game series streak, including 41-7 crushing in Columbia in 2009 (last meeting).

Rice at NORTHWESTERN...Rice looking forward to trip to Evanston following LY's sloppy 30-13 home series loss. Owls committed 4 TOs, including an 11-yd. int. return for TD. NW has been a poor home favorite, posting 4-16 spread mark since 2004.

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Wednesday, November 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami (Ohio) - 8:00 PM ET Temple -13 500

Temple - Over 44.5 500

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Hilltoppers Next Up For Top-Ranked LSU Tigers

The top-ranked LSU Tigers will try to avoid a major letdown on Saturday when they host the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. The Tigers (9-0) jumped to the top spot in the Don Best Linemakers Poll this week after edging the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide on the road last Saturday in overtime, 9-6.

Game time is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by ESPNU.

LSU opened as a 41 ½-point favorite against the Hilltoppers (5-4), who have seen some early betting in their favor as the line has gone down to 41 at some sportsbooks. The total opened at 49 according to the Don Best odds screen and has risen as high as 49 ½ so far.

Western Kentucky has never played the Tigers and enters this non-conference matchup on a five-game winning streak while covering the spread in six straight. More impressively, the Hilltoppers won all five games as underdogs, including three on the road.

Two of those wins away from home were decided by a field goal in overtime.

The Tigers know all about game-winning kicks in OT after Drew Alleman came through as their hero against the Crimson Tide. Alabama missed four field goals in the game, all of them coming from 44 yards out or further. None of Alleman’s three field goals came from beyond 30 yards.

In game billed as the latest 'Game of the Century,' it was each SEC team’s defense that came through to keep the total way ‘under’ 41 ½ points. LSU had scored 35 points or more in its previous five games along with seven of eight this season overall. The Tigers have totaled 40 or more five times and will be looking to get back on track offensively at home, where they have averaged more than 42 points per game.

Western Kentucky was also just involved in a defensive battle, topping the Florida International Golden Panthers on a 34-yard field goal by kicker Casey Tinius as time expired for a 10-9 victory. Running back Bobby Rainey rushed for 155 yards on 28 carries to lead the Hilltoppers, and he ranks fourth in the country with 1,082 yards on the ground.

Unfortunately for Rainey, he will have to face the nation’s second-ranked run defense, which is allowing only 78.8 yards per game. LSU held Alabama to 96 yards rushing on 31 carries with Heisman Trophy candidate Trent Richardson totaling 89 of them.

The weather forecast for Baton Rouge on Saturday calls for a high temperature of 73 cooling down to 58 at night under partly cloudy skies.

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4th Quarter Covers

November 9, 2011

There was some great football drama last weekend with the kicking game playing a vital role for several teams. Many games also went down to the wire relative to the spread. Here are some of the wild fourth quarter finishes with the point-spread in mind from last week’s action in college football.
Kent State (-2.5) 24, Central Michigan 21

Central Michigan and Kent State were locked up at 14-14 entering the fourth quarter after a scoreless third quarter but Kent State seemingly took control, adding a field goal after an interception to follow up an early fourth quarter touchdown to lead by ten. Central Michigan answered quickly on a big pass play to get within three and it appeared overtime would settle this match-up as Central Michigan lined up for a 28-yard field goal to tie the game. The kick sailed left and Kent State snuck out a narrow win and cover.

USC (-20.5) 48, Colorado 17

USC took charge of this game in the second quarter, getting four consecutive touchdowns before a field goal finally stopped the bleeding for Colorado. The margin was just 18 points into the fourth quarter as the Buffaloes moved the ball somewhat effectively but USC would score last, getting past the spread with just over seven minutes on the clock. Colorado got to midfield on its last possession but never seriously threatened for the backdoor cover.

Kentucky (+2.5) 30, Mississippi 13

Ole Miss led 13-10 entering the fourth quarter, sitting just past the spread seeking its first SEC win. The Wildcats grabbed the lead with an 80-yard drive early in the final frame. The Kentucky defense forced back-to-back 3-and-outs and then put together an 85-yard drive. With limited time remaining the Rebels were forced to go for it on fourth down, setting up a very short field for Kentucky and the Wildcats added another touchdown to pad the final score in a game that was much closer than final margin.

Rutgers (+2) 20, South Florida 17

South Florida jumped out to a 10-0 lead and led 17-3 halfway through the fourth quarter, seemingly in control in search of its first Big East win. After South Florida’s fourth quarter touchdown Rutgers returned the kickoff 98-yards for a touchdown and a huge momentum swing. After trading punts Rutgers got the stop it needed, forcing another South Florida punt from midfield with just a few minutes to go. The Rutgers offense that had not sustained a drive of even 30 yards in the game, found a way to go 12-plays and 80 yards for a touchdown to tie the game. South Florida had to punt its next possession but quickly got the ball back on an interception and moved in position to win the game but the 27-yard field goal was missed. In overtime the Bulls had the ball first but were intercepted and Rutgers conservatively set-up the winning field goal to win 20-17 despite being soundly out-gained.

Connecticut (-1.5) 28, Syracuse 21

Syracuse led 21-14 entering the fourth quarter but the Huskies completed a drive to tie the game early in the fourth. Syracuse looked poised to get the lead back but they threw an interception deep in the red zone. Connecticut went down the field and took the lead and then stopped Syracuse near midfield to preserve the win.

Stanford (-21) 38, Oregon State 13

This was just a four-point game deep into the third quarter before Stanford scored two touchdowns in just over two minutes late in the third, capitalizing on a fumble. Stanford was still short of the spread entering the fourth quarter however. Oregon State had two productive fourth quarter drives but came away empty and with just six minutes to go Stanford added another touchdown to get past the spread, adding another win to an incredible ATS season that has included a lot of late drama relative to the spread.

Houston (-28) 56, UAB 13

The Cougars posted big numbers as usual but were short of the spread most of the way, actually leading by just eight points midway through the third quarter. Entering the fourth Houston has pushed the lead to 22 points and it was just a matter of time as Houston had three fourth quarter touchdowns including an interception return score.

Utah State (+3.5) 35, Hawaii 31

Hawaii led 28-7 at the half but Utah State put together a great finish, trimming the margin to ten points entering the fourth quarter and then hitting a 71-yard pass play early in the fourth to get within three points and within the spread. Hawaii had to punt for the second consecutive time and with just seconds on the clock Utah State drove for the winning score.

Arkansas State (-17) 39, Florida Atlantic 17

Florida Atlantic actually led 21-18 in the third quarter as heavy underdogs but Arkansas State scored three unanswered touchdowns the rest of the way, with the spread sealing score coming with seven minutes to go in the game. Florida Atlantic appeared poised to spoil the spread with a late drive going 74 yards but an interception allowed the Red Wolves to hang on.

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News & Notes - Week 11

November 9, 2011

With 4:51 left in the 1H Florida State not only led 28-0, they had a 214-16 yd edge and Boston College had 0 FD. BC got a TD early 3Q then gave up a 47 yd FG and Florida St was then SOD at the BC5 but after an int, FSU drove 36/6pl for a TD with 10:16 left, 38-7. Luke Kuechly had 20 tkls and BC clinched their first losing season since 1998 and was eliminated from bowl contention...

There have been some fine QB's at USC but Matt Barkley set a school record with 6 TD passes with 3 other USC QB's at one time having 5. Colorado did have a couple of blown opportunities as they had 31 and 37 yd FG's blk'd and settled for a 30 yd FG after a 1st & gl at the 8. It was 35-17 with 11:19 left when USC drove 66/9pl incl a 4&3 conversion to the CU31 and they got a 19 yd TD pass with 7:06 left for Barkley's 6th TD. USC's final drive did go 71/8pl and the game ended at the CU16...

Scott McCummings who has been used mainly as a running QB for Connecticut took over in the 4Q and his option-style change of pace running guided to the 7 pt win over Syracuse. CT amazingly turned the ball over 5 times in the 1H getting inside the SU32 on the first 5 drives but it was just 7-7 at the half due to the TO's. The Orange were forced to stay in a hotel an hour away from the stadium due to a power outage in East Hartford...

Marcus Coker ran for 132 yds vs Michigan and Iowa led as much as 24-9 but had to survive at the end. UM got a TD with 7:53 left to pull within 24-16 and Iowa punted 2x, the latter with 2:15 left. UM got to a 1st & gl at the 3, but a pass caught in the back of the EZ was ruled OOB then on 4&3 the pass was broken up on the final play of the game...

One week after a solid game vs Wisconsin, Braxton Miller hit just 5-11-55. He had a scintillating 81 yd QB draw for a TD on 2&12 which put Ohio State up 10-7. With the game tied at 20, they faced a 3rd & gl at the 20 and Miller's 20 yd TD run on a QB draw gave them the lead, 27-20. Indiana was int'd with 4:07 left and OSU drove 58/4pl for a TD with 2:41 left to finally get some breathing room, 34-20. IU actually took the game's opening drive 42/11pl for a 35 yd FG then after a fumble drove 41/6pl for a 10-0 lead...

Texas frosh Joe Bergeron ran for 195 yds and 3 TD's. UT ran for 439 yds vs Texas Tech. UT's top rusher, Malcolm Brown, was sidelined with a toe injury and top WR Jaxon Shipley had a knee injury. UT led 31-6 at the half and 52-13 when TT went 74/12pl for a garbage TD with 1:01 left...

Florida led Vanderbilt 17-0 at the half and could have been up by more as they had a 277-119 yd edge. A key play happened on their first series when on 3&1 they got a 39 yd pass which appeared to be for a TD but fmbl'd for a TB. They also missed a FG. Jordan Rodgers came to life in the 2H and hit 19-28-297 on the day. VU got a TD with 10:54 left to pull within 20-14 but UF took over with 5:59 left and went 94/8pl for a TD with 2:13 left and missed the 2 pt conv, 26-14. VU went 80/5pl and got a TD with 1:16 left but UF rec'd the onside kick...

Virginia became bowl eligible for the first time since 2007 and dominated Maryland with a 527-353 yd edge. MD suffered their 5th straight loss. It was the Terps' FHG and 16 seniors were honored. UVA ret'd the opening KO 48 yds and on the first play got a 47 yd TD run but only led 14-13 at the half. UVA drove 94/13pl for a TD then after an int went 66/7pl for a TD and after a punt went 69/7pl for a FG and a commanding 31-13 lead at the start of the 4Q and rolled...

North Carolina State came in ranked in the bottom half of the ACC in defensive stats but held Giovani Bernard to 47 yards on 18 carries and knocked Tar Heel QB Bryn Renner out of the game at the end of the 3Q. It was NCSt's first shutout in over 5 decades vs their rival and the 1st time NCSt had won 5 straight over UNC since 1988-92. The win came after HC's O'Brien and Withers traded verbal jabs about graduation rates and the NCAA investigation of UNC during the week. NCSt had a 290-165 yd edge. At the half NCSt finished with a 230-32 yd edge and UNC was int'd at the NCSt goal line to open the 3Q and in their only other shots in the 2H they were SOD at the NCSt23 and int'd at the UNC42...

Georgia was without 3 susp'd RB's and Aaron Murray only played the 1H but UGA jumped out to a 49-3 HT lead and rolled to a 63-16 win over New Mexico State. Later, after South Carolina lost to Arkansas, UGA found out it controls its own destiny to get to the SEC Title Game...

Louisville was overlooked in the Big 12 expansion for West Virginia and dealt WV's Big East Title hopes a setback. WV had a 533-351 yd edge but UL also led the game 31-21. The key play happened at 24-21 when WV lined up for a 23 yd FG. UL blk'd it and ret'd it 82 yds for a TD for a 31-21 lead. UL extended it to 38-28 with 1:50 left but WV got a TD with :42 left but UL rec'd the onside kick. Teddy Bridgewater hit 21-27-246 yds and WV went scoreless in the 3Q for the first time all season...

The two teams who might be playing in the Big Ten Title game (Michigan St and Ohio State) both struggled vs overmatched foes and the weakest 2 teams in the B10. MSU was off their crushing loss to Nebraska but actually regained the top spot in the division as both Michigan and Nebraska lost. They actually trailed 14-7 and got a TD with :04 left in the half to lead 21-17. Minnesota went back ahead 24-21 and MSU tied it with 14:49 left and then got a 35 yd Bell TD run with 10:58 left for the lead. UM's last 2 drives ended on an SOD on 4&10 at the MSU48 with 4:12 left and they got to the MSU45 and were int'd at the 23 with :09 left. UM had a 415-402 yd edge...

TCU won their Mountain West record 21st straight league game and tied the league record with consecutive road wins with 11. TCU finished with a 617-353 yd edge and had to overcome 5 TO's and trailed 20-17 late 3Q when they drove 80/10pl for a TD and the lead. TCU got a 74 yd James run to the 8 to set up another TD with 13:20 left, 31-20. TCU fumbled' at the Wyoming 7 and surprisingly on 4&14 with 2:01 left in the game, down by 11 pts, WY opted to punt and it went 40 yds and TCU ran the clock out...

At the half SMU had a 31-0 lead and 296-61 yd edge and was dominant. The Mustangs fumbled the opening snap of the 3Q and Tulane ret'd it for a TD. After another 18 yd punt drove 20 yds for a 43 yd FG and after an 18 yd punt went 47/7pl for a TD to get back to 31-17. Trailing 38-24 they were SOD at the SMU26 and SMU got a TD with 1:39 left for the 21 pt margin...

Navy earned their biggest halftime lead since 2006 with a 385-109 yd edge vs Troy and led the game 35-0. QB Kriss Proctor was doubtful coming in but did start and played most of the game...

Montee Ball rushed for a career high 232 yds with 3 TD's for Wisconsin. Purdue's Raheem Mostert had 5 KR's for 206 yds keeping PU in the game early but UW had 605-285 yd and 30-14 FD edges. The Badgers had 425 yds at the half and led 38-17...

In the 1H vs Air Force, Army had a 286-81 yd HT edge but only led 14-0. They were SOD on 4&1 and fmbl'd into the EZ for a TB and could have easily been up 28-0. AF rallied to tie it at 14 then the key play happened when Army faked a punt on 4&6 and they snapped it to the upman who pitched it back to Allen who never got a handle on the pitch and AF rec'd at the Army14 and got a TD 4pl later to lead 21-14 and never trailed again. Army fumbled at their own 19 setting up an AF FG and was int'd with 3:53 left. Army finished with a 366-301 yd edge...

Zach Maynard was almost benched during the week but hit 10-17-118 and Cal dominated Washington State as at the half they had a 243-55 yd edge and led 23-0 and extended it to 30-0 when WSU rec'd a fumble and drove 17 yds for a TD with 13:38 left...

The wind was a big factor for Oklahoma as they were playing with legitimate revenge vs Texas A&M and off their first home loss in 39 games. OU appeared in control at 13-3 when A&M got a 79 yd pass on 3&9 with 1:39 left in the half which gave them the yardage edge at the half, 208-180 and pulled them within 13-10. OU had the wind at their backs in the 3Q and took advantage driving 31 yds (after 34 yd punt), 28 yds (after int), 69 yds and 34 yds (after int) for TD's and a dominating 41-10 lead. A&M got a couple of late TD's, one with 9:49 left then drove 95/9pl for a garbage TD with 2:37 left to make the final score respectable. The key news for OU is that the FBS's #1 all-time rec'r, Ryan Broyles, tore his ACL and is out for the year and remember last week, OU lost its top rusher RB Whaley...

Tennessee had just taken on 4 top 10 D's but last week took on our #118 rated D in Middle Tennessee State and rolled up 411 yards in their 24-0 win. Each team was SOD inside the other's 20 twice in the game incl Tenn with 1:26 left on 4&5 at the MT 19...

Houston moved to 9-0 for the first time ever after having been 8-0 in 1979 and 1990. Case Keenum became the career leading passer in college football passing up Timmy Chang's 17,072. It happened with 6:00 left in the 3Q on a 16 yd pass to Justin Johnson. UH only led 21-10 at the half and was up 42-13 when they got a 52 yd IR TD with 8:06 left and bkp QB Turner guided a drive with 5:00 left and UH ended at the UAB35 running out the clock...

Tough loss for South Florida vs Rutgers. In the 1H they had a 158-87 yd edge and led 10-0. USF fmbl'd the punt at their 12 setting up an RU FG. USF went on a 16 play drive but missed a 47 yd FG. USF appeared to ice it with a TD with 7:38 left which put them up 17-3 but RU got a 98 yd KR TD with 7:25 left. Two poss later RU converted on 4&9 with an 11 yd pass to the USF45 and would get a TD with 1:01 left to tie it. USF's final drive got to the 10 yd line where they lined up for the game winning 27 yd FG but missed it. In OT USF was int'd and RU got a 37 yd FG...

Missouri was SOD twice deep in Baylor territory and led 14-13 at the half but trailed 42-25 after an 80 yd run by Ganaway. MO drove 80/11pl for a TD with 3:55 left and 87/7pl for a TD with 1:59 left but BU rec'd the onside kick and finished with a 697-578 yd edge which was much wider prior to those final 2 drives...

Arkansas had a frustrating 1H vs South Carolina. They had a dominating 253-43 yd edge but settled for FG's of 44, 45 and 29 yds and missed 2 of them. Also, QB Wilson was trying to throw the ball away and threw it right to DT Taylor who ret'd it 48 yds for a TD. Also at the end of the half, Ark on 3&10 had a wide open TD pass dropped and settled for the FG and missed it. SC got as close as 24-21 and 30-28 (10:30 4Q) but the Hogs pulled out to 44-28 lead. In the 2H was SOD on 4&gl at the 2 and on 4&1 at the SC29 and finished with a 435-207 yd edge...

Basically in Utah games, whoever has the TO advantage usually wins and wins big. Arizona had a 457-332 yd edge but Utah had a 3-0 TO edge and won by 13. At half Utah led 20-7 despite UA having a 212-191 yd edge. On top of the 3-0 TO edge, Utah also blk'd 2 punts so it was like having 5 TO's. The most crucial TO happened at 27-14 when UA had a 1st & gl at the 2, were int'd in the EZ and ret'd 57 yds.

LETDOWNS AFTER BIG WINS

Texas Tech upset Oklahoma and the next week suffered a huge upset to Iowa State. ISU off their upset win, almost lost to Kansas. KU led 7-3 but had a 49 yd FG blk'd and then missed a 46 yd FG and then fmbl'd at the ISU14 all in the 1H. It was an almost identical situation to the previous year where KU had the yardage edge and should have had a significant 1H lead. This time they had a 178-169 yd edge and actually trailed 10-7. KU went for it on 4&1 at the 6 and got a FD to the 4 but then surprisingly opted for a 19 yd FG on 4&gl at the 1 to tie it at 10. KU punted with 11:46 and 9:12 left and ISU went on a 63/12pl drive for a 42 yd FG with 4:30 left. KU opted to punt on 4&11 with 2:37 left and ISU got 2 FD's and escaped...

Nebraska was off their big win over Michigan State and was a huge HF. At the half Northwestern led 7-3 but Nebraska had a 181-160 yd edge as they fmbl'd at the N'wstrn6. NW had leads of 14-3 and 21-10 and Neb got within 21-18 with 8:55 left but NW went 66/13pl for a 1yd TD run with 1:34 left to put it away. Neb got a TD with :18 left for the final score which helped them finish with a 468-411 yd edge.

FRONTDOOR COVERS

Miami, Fl. scored on all four 1H poss and had a 300-106 yd edge but Duke, trailing 35-14 was SOD at the UM14, int'd at their own 27 and UM drove 27/2pl for a TD and then Duke fumbled at their own 21 and UM drove 21/4pl for a 6 yd TD run with 5:23 left to put the game Over the total...

Stanford has played by the same MO for most of the year. It was close in the 3Q vs Oregon State. In fact, there were a couple of key plays. Late in the 1H SU had a 4 yd pass which was fumbled and ret'd for a TD but a personal foul call on a hit to the WR wiped it out. Later, OSU on 3&11 got a 31 yd screen pass deep int'd in SU terr but a holding call wiped it out. At the time they trailed just 17-13. SU got a 27 yd TD pass with 2:40 left in the quarter then after rec'ing a fmbl went 24/3pl for a TD then got ahead of the spread with a 95/13pl drive for an 8 yd TD run with 6:07 left. OSU got to the SU22 with 4:42 left. SU did finish with a 507-285 yd edge despite playing in a huge situational disadvantage coming off a triple OT win vs USC with Oregon on deck...

Idaho scored a TD with 9:57 left to pull within 22-17 of San Jose State then got a TD and 2pt with 3:59 left, 25-22. On what appeared to be the frontdoor push on the total Idaho got the ball back and on 3&5 ripped off a 70 yd run to the 10. SJ used their last time-out but thanks to the long run ID was able to tuck in a TD with 1:49 left and then SJS went 76/3pl getting a 47 yd TD pass with 1:08 left and had ID got just gotten a FD they likely would have run out the clock to finish with a 47 pt final.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 11

November 9, 2011



Thursday, Nov. 10
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

OHIO at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...Dan Enos 1-9 vs. line for CMU TY, 1-10 last 11 since late 2010 and 3-15 last 18 vs. spread since mid 2010 after loss to Kent State. Solich 8-3 vs. line last 11 on MAC road. Ohio, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at TULANE...Wave on 4-17 spread downtick at home since early 2008. UH 7-0-1 vs. line last eight meetings in series. Cougs 6-2 vs. line TY. UH, based on team and series trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at GEORGIA TECH...Paul Johnson has covered the past three years vs. Beamer since arriving at GT in 2008. Paul Johnson 9-5 as reg.-season dog at GT since '08, and 25-14 last 39 as dog st Navy and GT. Beamer just 2-7 vs. line TY and only 1-4 last 5 on road afer solid away marks prior. GT, based on team and series trends.




Friday, Nov. 11
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SOUTH FLORIDA at SYRACUSE...Skip no covers last 5 TY, though USF has won and covered last three handily at Carrier Dome. Slight to USF, based on series trends.



Saturday, Nov. 12
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PITT at LOUISVILLE...UL only 4-8 against points last 12 at home. Note that Pitt 3-1 SU and 4-0 vs. line last four in series, though Panthers have failed to cover first two on road TY. Pitt, based on series trends.

OHIO STATE at PURDUE...OSU creamed Purdue 49-0 in a revenge game LY but Boilermakers have still covered 5 of last 7 meetings. Danny Hope 4-2 as home dog since '09 and did upset OSU at Ross-Ade in 2009. Slight to Purdue, based on extended series trends.

MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS...Zook 5-1 as dog since LY, 9-1 last 10 as dog. Zook has also covered last three vs. (Rodriguez) Wolverines. Illinois, based on team and series trends.

RICE at NORTHWESTERN...Cats 0-3 vs. line at home TY, 3-11 at Evanston vs. points since '09. NU 1-6 last 7 as chalk and 6-18 in role since 2008. Cats 2-7 vs. line last 9 hosting non-Big Ten foes. Rice, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at VANDERBILT...UK has won and covered 6 of last 7 meetings and has won and covered last three at Vandy Stadium. But Joker 1-7 vs. line last 8 away from Lexington. James Franklin 7-2 vs. line TY for Commodores including 5-0 at home! Vandy also 5-1 its last 6 as chalk! Vandy, based on recent trends.

WAKE FOREST at CLEMSON...Dabo 5-0 vs. FBS foes at Death Valley TY. Tigers have won and covered 3 of last 4 in series with wins by 20 or more. Grobe improved TY but only 2-8 against number on road since LY. Clemson, based on team trends.

DUKE at VIRGINIA...Duke 5-2-1 vs. line away since LY and 17-8-1 in role since 2007. Duke has won last three and covered last four in series. Cavs no covers last four as chalk. Duke, based on team and series trends.

NC STATE at BOSTON COLLEGE...Spaziani 1-10 vs. number last 11 vs. FBS foes at Chestnut Hill. NCS 25-9 vs. spread from 6th game of season onward since O'Brien arrived in 2007. NCS, based on BC woes.

BUFFALO at EASTERN MICHIGAN...EMU 0-3 as chalk TY and no covers last five in role since late 2005. But Bulls no covers last five on MAC trail. Slight to EMU, based on team trends.

TEXAS A&M at KANSAS STATE...KSU has won last two and covered last three in series. In 2009, Bill Snyder pounded A&M 62-14 at Manhattan. Aggies just 1-7 vs. line last 8 TY and 0-4 vs. line away from Kyle Field, and Mike Sherman just 4-14 against line last 18 away from home. KSU, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at AKRON...Kent State rallying with wins and covers last two TY,. Kent State, based on recent trends.

BAYLOR at KANSAS...Baylor no covers last five away from Waco but Bears are 11-5 last 16 as chalk since 2007. KU, based on Baylor road woes.

WYOMING at AIR FORCE...Force no covers first five at home TY and 1-7 against line last 8 at Colorado Springs. Wyoming 2-1 as road dog TY and 11-3 in role since Dave Christensen arrived in 2005. Cowboys have covered last two meetings. Wyo, based on team trends.

IDAHO at BYU...Robb Akey 11-4 vs. line last 15 as road dog. Cougs, however, on 12-5 spread uptick since mid 2010. Slight to Idaho, based on team trends.

NAVY at SMU...Ken Niumatalolo 13-5 vs. points last 18 as dog. June Jones only 7-12 as chalk with SMU. Navy, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at UTAH STATE...Utags only 3-8 vs. spread last 11 as host (2-2 TY). Although USU has covered the last two years vs. SJSU. USU 3-8-1 last 12 as chalk as well. SJSU, based on team trends.

MARSHALL at TULSA...Herd 4-2 last 6 as dog, but Tulsa now on 3-game win and cover streak TY. Tulsa, based on recent trends.

TCU at BOISE STATE...Teams split a pair of low-scoring bowls in 2008-09 but Boise did cover both. Broncos not as overwhelming lately on blue carpet, 0-3 vs. line as host TY and just 3-8 last 11. TCU, based on recent trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE...Note road team has won and covered last five meetings. Last four also "over" after "unders" in previous six. FSU on a roll at moment with four straight wins and covers. Al Golden was 15-8 as dog his last four years at Temple and is 2-1 in role TY with Canes. Miami 8-4 as dog since '07. Miami, based on series road and team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at CINCINNATI (at Paul Brown Stadium)...WVU has covered the last two in series, although Cincy percolating with 6-2 spread mark TY. Cincy, based on recent trends.

RUTGERS vs. ARMY (at Yankee Stadium)...RU had covered five in a row vs. Army prior to LY's 23-20 non-cover at new Meadowlands. Rutgers, based on extended series and team trends.

TEXAS at MISSOURI...If Pinkel a home dog note 1-4 mark last five in rather rare role since 2005 (0-1 TY). Slight to Texas, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA at PENN STATE...Shades 1-5 vs. line at home TY and only 6-14 against points at Happy Valley since 2009. Bo Pelini 13-6 against spread his last 19 away from Lincoln. Nebraska, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS TECH...OSU has won and covered 5 of last 6 in series. Cowboys have also covered 10 in a row away from Stillwater. TT 1-3 vs. spread last four at Lubbock TY. OSU, based on team and series trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at IOWA...Hawkeyes have covered the last five in series, and Ferentz has covered last 3 as Iowa City dog. Iowa, based on team and series trends.

TENNESSEE at ARKANSAS...Petrino 17-5 vs. spread last 22 as host. Arkansas, based on team trends.

FLORIDA at SOUTH CAROLINA...Spurrier has covered the last two vs. his old school and is 4-2 vs. spread against Gators since taking the SC job in 2005. Gators no covers last five TY. SC, based on recent trends.

WASHINGTON at SOUTHERN CAL...Sarkisian has won and covered as dog each of past two years vs. SC. UW 10-3 SU and vs. line last 13 on board since late LY. Lane Kiffin has only covered 2 of 12 at home since arriving at SC LY. Washington, based on team and recent series trends.

AUBURN at GEORGIA...Home team has covered the last four in spirited rivalry. Auburn just 1-3 against points as visitor TY. Richt 6-2 against line his last 8 'tween the hedges. Georgia, based on recent and series home trends.

OREGON STATE at CAL (AT&T Park, San Francisco)...Mike Riley has dominated Tedford lately, winning and covering the last four meetings, and is 4-0 SU and vs. line as visitor in series since 2003. OSU, based on series trends.

OREGON at STANFORD...Ducks 7-2 vs. line last nine meetings. But Tree unbeaten 11 straight vs. line, and Oregon only 5-8 against spread last 13 away from Eugene. Stanford, based on recent trends.

HAWAII at NEVADA...Chris Ault 23-8 vs. points as home chalk since returning to Wolf Pack sidelines in 2004. Nevada 4-1 vs. line last five in series at Reno. Warriors 1-4 vs. line on mainland TY. Nevada, based on team trends.

UAB at MEMPHIS...UAB was on 8-0-2 spread run vs. Memphis prior to LY's 31-15 win but no cover vs. Tigers at Legion Field. Tigers 2-6 against line vs. FBS foes TY and 0-3 against line vs. those sorts at Liberty Bowl. UAB, based on extended series trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at COLORADO STATE...Aztecs had covered five straight in series prior to LY. But CSU only 1-7 vs. line TY and now 7-19 last 26 on board since mid 2009. SDSU, based on recent CSU woes.

ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Nick has won and covered last three vs. MSU by almost-identical scores (32-7, 31-3, & 30-10). Bama 12-4 against points away since 2009. Bama, based on team and recent series trends.
ARIZONA STATE at WASHINGTON STATE...Erickson 14-7 vs. line since LY and 7-3 on road. ASU, based on team trends.

LA TECH at OLE MISS...La Tech has covered 4 of last 5 TY and is 4-0 as dog in 2011. Ole Miss 4-9 against points last 13 at Oxford. LT, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN at MINNESOTA...Paul Bunyan Axe and Slab of Bacon! Bielema 13-3 vs. spread last 16 on board since mid 2010. Badgers 8-1 their last 9 laying DDs. Wisconsin, based on team trends.

NOTRE DAME at MARYLAND (at FedEx Field)...Terps 1-7 vs. line last 8 TY. Irish 8-4 against spread last 11 away from South Bend. ND, based on recent Maryland woes.

FRESNO STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE...Pat Hill 3-1 vs. line away TY. Slight to Fresno, based on recent trends.

UCLA at UTAH...UCLA 1-7 against number last 8 on road. Utes, however, only 1-5 against spread last 6 at Salt Lake City. Slight to Utah, based on team trends.

UCF at SOUTHERN MISS...USM on 7-game win and cover streak TY. UCF has dropped 6 of last 7 vs. number. USM, based on recent trends.

EAST CAROLINA at UTEP...ECU has covered 3 of 4 on road in 2011. ECU, based on team trends.

ARIZONA at COLORADO...Buffs have now dropped a nation's-worst 7 in a row vs. number. Though Cats only 3-8 their last 11 as chalk since mid 2010. Arizona, based on CU woes.

UNLV at NEW MEXICO...UNLV has lost 13 straight away (1-12 vs. line) since its last road win, at New Mexico, in 2009. But Rebs have walloped Lobos each of the past two years by combined 79-27 score. UNLV, based on UNM woes.

Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

UL-LAFAYETTE at ARKANSAS STATE...Red Wolves 8-1 vs. line TY, 7-2 last 9 vs. points at Jonesboro. Ragin' Cajuns, however, have won and covered last 3 meetings in series and are 10-1 their last 11 vs. line away. Slight to ULL, based on series trends.

NORTH TEXAS at TROY...Troy 2-6 against spread TY and subpar 1-7 against line last 8 at Movie Gallery Stadium. Mean Green 5-2 against line TY and 9-3 last 12 on board since late 2010. UNT, based on recent trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at UL-MONROE...MTSU only 7-13 against line since LY but has won and covered last two vs. Warhawks. Slight to MTSU, based on recent series trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL...Howard 2-6 vs. line TY, 2-11 last 13, 3-15 last 18 on board. Owls, however, have won and covered last five vs. FIU. FIU no covers last six TY. FIU, based on extended team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at LSU...Tops on 6-game spread win streak. Les just 3-7 against spread last 10 hosting non-SEC teams, also hasn't covered 3 of last 4 years after Bama. Tigers 2-7 against spread last 9 after facing Tide. WKU, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Stanford-Oregon generating plenty of hype

November 8, 2011

PHOENIX (AP) - Alabama and LSU played what had been dubbed The Game of the Century, a tag that didn't quite fit after the SEC rivals traded field goals and defensive stops.

A week later, the Pac-12 gets its shot in the spotlight.

Saturday's game between No. 3 Stanford and sixth-ranked Oregon may not generate the same kind of hype as LSU-Alabama, but it has the potential to be one of the greatest games in a conference that's had its share over the years.

Will it become a classic like the 1982 Big Game between Cal and Stanford? That might be a stretch, but with a spot in the inaugural Pac-12 championship game likely on the line, not to mention BCS bowl and national title implications, it has the potential to be a doozy.

So, to get you ready for the big game - note the lowercase, for now - here's a look at some of the most memorable games during the various incarnations of the conference along the West Coast.

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Cal 25, Stanford 20, Nov. 20, 1982. No list of great games - anywhere - is complete without ``The Play.'' A nondescript game heading in, the 1982 version of the Big Game became an instant classic when Cal used five laterals and got through the Stanford band to score the winning touchdown on the last play of the game. The sheer madness of those laterals would have been enough to vault this game to elite status, but the band running onto the field and the ensuing trombone-player takedown in the end zone made it an all-time great. That Stanford still doesn't recognize Cal's win - the Cardinal contend the final play was illegal - adds to it even more.

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USC 21, UCLA 20, Nov. 18, 1967. Considered to be among the greatest college football games of the 20th Century, this matchup between two top-5 teams is widely considered the premier game in the long-standing rivalry between Southern California neighbors. UCLA came into the game ranked No. 1 and had Heisman Trophy candidate Gary Beban. USC was No. 4 and had its own Heisman hopeful, running back O.J. Simpson. Playing in the AAWU Conference, a precursor to even the Pac-8, the Bruins and Trojans played an epic game that turned on an electric 64-yard touchdown run by ``The Juice'' in the fourth quarter. USC won the game and, later, the national championship. Beban went on to win the Heisman in a somewhat controversial vote for some drama after the drama.

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Oregon 56, Arizona State 55 (2OT), Oct. 28, 2000. Oregon was undefeated and Arizona State was having another strong season when these two equally matched teams squared off. They traded scoring plays throughout the game until the Sun Devils appeared to have the upper hand. Trying to run out the clock leading 49-42, Arizona State couldn't - Mike Williams fumbled, the Ducks recovered, Joey Harrington threw his sixth TD pass to send the game to overtime. The craziness ended, fittingly, on a crazy play when Arizona State coach Bruce Snyder called for a fake extra point try and Jeff Krohn's pass attempt fell short.

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Oregon State 0, Oregon 0, Nov. 19, 1983. Dubbed the Toilet Bowl not only because of the driving rain in Eugene that day, but because of the final score of this Civil War. The game featured four missed field goals - two from less than 30 yards - five interceptions and six fumbles. With neither team doing much of anything in a rain that came in sideways, fans reportedly started a chant of ``Bor-ing!'' at the end of the game. It would go down as the last scoreless tie in the history of college football; in 1996, the NCAA changed the rules to allow for overtime. It may not have been exciting, but it was certainly memorable. Besides, we just like saying Toilet Bowl.

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Stanford 49, Oregon 42, Oct. 20, 2001. Oregon entered the game ranked fifth and on a 23-game home winning streak. The Ducks, behind Heisman Trophy favorite Joey Harrington, were in control of the game, too. Stanford came storming back, though, blocking two punts, picking off two of Harrington's passing and scoring 21 straight points in the fourth quarter to pull out the win - one that would ultimately keep Oregon from playing for the BCS championship.

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Stanford 56, USC 48 (3OT), Oct. 29, 2011. It's hard to put a game played so recently into historical perspective, but this will likely rate somewhere high. Trading big plays and momentum swings, the fourth-ranked Cardinal and 20th-ranked Trojans played an epic game in which neither team could stop each other - until the very end. USC took the lead when Nickell Robey returned an interception 33 yard for a touchdown with 3:08 left, but Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck shook off the pick and coolly led the Cardinal down for the tying score. The teams traded scores in the first two overtimes until Stanford stripped USC's Curtis McNeal and recovered the fumble in the end zone.

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These, of course, are only a handful of the conference's most memorable games and everyone has their favorites. Another could be added to the list on Saturday if everything falls into place. Let's hope so.

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[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves

November 10, 2011

Even before all the terrible news started pouring out publicly from University Park, attempting to handicap Saturday’s Penn State-Nebraska game was hard enough. Now, with PSU players swirling in emotions of uncharted proportions its hard how to gauge that factor into the equation.
Do the Penn State players dig deep and find away to win for not only their coach, but the victims involved if they choose to acknowledge them -- as they should -- in this whole ordeal?

Following the news of Paterno being fired, students streamed out of the dorm rooms to the streets like ants fleeing a hill full of insecticide. Riots were reported by the media for sensationalism purposes, but for the most part it was an emotional outcry of support in a peaceful manner, outside of a news truck being overturned.

That type of emotion by the students is the same feeling the players have. For the most of them, they chose to play football at Penn State with the help of their families because of Paterno and the rich tradition he built in his 46 years of leadership.

But there is also the emotional angle that could see this team play flatter than they have all season, a season that has seen them only cover twice in nine games despite going 8-1 straight up. Beyond feeling sorrow and pain for their ousted coach, there also has to be a bit of disgust and embarrassment attached to them representing a school that had such high standards, but has now been tarnished by a scandal.

Through it all, however they try to charge themselves emotionally, the thought of what might have happened to children in their own locker room they dress in has to weigh heavy in the back of their minds.

Penn State is currently in the driver’s seat and should it win this game -- its final home game of the season -- and then take care of business at Ohio State and Wisconsin, the school will be on its way to a nice tribute for their ousted coach.

Nebraska is no bargain itself -- at home or on the road -- and now it enters a hornet’s nest. The Cornhuskers are coming off an embarrassing home loss to Northwestern as 17-point favorites and are playing in only their fourth road game. They beat the likes of Wyoming and Minnesota while getting crushed at Wisconsin.

How do the Huskers respond through all of this as an innocent bystander? The tension is thick in the area and it would almost be better if the first time they step foot in Pennsylvania was on game day. Stay in Youngstown, OH like the night before the game like the 49ers successfully did this year and take the three-hour drive on game day to be as far away from the emotion of the situation.

The Las Vegas Hilton opened Nebraska as a 2 ½-point favorite and is now up to -3 ½ showing that the bettors and bookmakers are leaning towards Penn State being flat.

The big game of the week with all kinds of BCS implications is Oregon visiting Stanford where the Cardinal have dropped from an opener of -4 to -3 ½. Stanford is currently No. 4 in the BCS rankings with an average of .874 which is well below Oklahoma State’s .9447 and just a tad lower than one-loss Alabama at .8836. However, should they beat Oregon, Stanford is sure to pass Alabama. Then won’t get much credit for beating Cal, but could gain some more points by handling Notre Dame in its season finale with additional points looming with a Pac 12 championship game win.

Still, Stanford will be rooting for Arkansas to take down LSU on Nov. 25 and Oklahoma to hand OSU a loss on Dec. 3.

Last week’s LSU-Alabama handle was the highest of the season, almost like a BCS Bowl game, but Cal-Neva’s sports book director Nick Bogdanovich thinks Oregon-Stanford will top it at his books.

“We’re in a little different situation than most of the Las Vegas sports books because we’re based out of Reno and we'll see that Northern California and Oregon money more,“ said Bogdanovich who also has several books located in Las Vegas as well. “We always have a strong Bay Area handle over the weekend at our Northern properties and they’ll be betting this game strong.”

Last Sunday following the LSU win, a customer came to Bogdanovich and asked him to make a money-line for Western Kentucky at Baton Rouge this week. LSU is a 41 ½-point favorite in the game, but it is a let-down spot against a perceived weak opponent with LSU coming off the biggest of all wins.

Being the renowned gambler Bogdanovich is, he came up with a number, 100-to-1 and let the bettor wager $5,000 on it.

“Needless to say, I’ll have a little something to sweat out Saturday night,” said Bogdanovich of the $500,000 risk attached to the bet.

WKU and LSU are both 7-2 against the spread with WKU a strong 4-0 ATS on the road, albeit against Sun Belt competition, but they have won five games in a row.

The total in the game is 48 ½ making it look pretty funny on digital board with the spread being only 7-points less. Talk about a correlated parlay!

In Cal-Neva’s backyard, Nevada is getting some action for their home game against a tired Hawaii squad. Nevada opened as a 10-point favorite Sunday at the Wynn and most Vegas sports books opened -13 ½ on Monday. Through Thursday morning, the Wolf Pack was -15 ½ or -16 everywhere.

Alabama has been bet up from a 16 ½-point road favorite to -18 for their game at Mississippi State. Nick Saban has to be driving home the point they are still a major player in the BCS title to keep them focused against a very defensive minded MSU squad.

Air Force has jumped from the opener of -13 ½ to -16 for their home game against Wyoming.

Boise State hasn’t covered one home game yet this year and the line has remained -16 throughout the week for their game against TCU. Their body of work on the season has impressed the BCS and they remain in quick sand with the rest of college football passing them by. This may be their only chance to win with quality style points.

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch - Week 11

November 9, 2011


Saturday - Nebraska at Penn State (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

As of Wednesday, most betting shops had Nebraska listed as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 43. Gamblers can take Penn St. to win outright for a plus-145 return (risk $100 to win $145). On Wednesday morning, Joe Paterno announced his retirement effective at the end of the season. Obviously, this decision was prompted by the stunning arrest of former defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky, who faces incomprehensible allegations of sex crimes committed against young boys over the course of more than a decade. PSU is 5-1 straight up and 2-4 against the spread at home this year. The Nittany Lions, who are coming off an open date, have won seven in a row since suffering their lone loss to Alabama to Week 2. Nebraska had won three straight before losing a 28-25 decision to Northwestern as a 17-point home favorite last week. The Cornhuskers are 2-1 both SU and ATS on the road this year, and they're 9-4 ATS as road favorites during Bo Pelini's four-year tenure. The 'under' is 7-1-1 overall for PSU. Totals have been an overall wash (4-4) for Nebraska, but it has seen the 'under' hit in its last three games and go 2-1 in its road assignments.




Saturday - West Virginia at Cincinnati (Gameplan, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Most spots have Cincinnati listed as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 66. Bettors can take West Va. on the money line for a plus-150 payout. Butch Jones's squad is coming off a 26-23 win at Pitt as a 3 ½-point road favorite. Zach Collaros overcame a pair of interceptions by rushing for two TDs for the Bearcats, who have won six in a row since losing at Tennessee in Week 2. WVU has lost two of its last three both SU and ATS, including last week's surprising 38-35 loss to Louisville as a 12 ½-point home favorite. The Mountaineers' defense has been awful the last three games, giving up 38, 31 and 49 points. WVU signal caller Geno Smith is enjoying a banner year with a 23/5 TD-INT ratio, but he'll be without one of his favorite targets (Brad Starks) for the rest of the regular season. The 'over' has hit in eight consecutive games for WVU, but Cincy has seen the 'under' go 4-1 its last five times out. When these Big East adversaries met in Morgantown last year, WVU cruised to a 37-10 victory.




Saturday - Michigan State at Iowa (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

As of Wednesday, most books had Michigan St. listed as a 2 1/2-point 'chalk' with a total of 47. The Spartans have failed to cover the number in back-to-back outings, including last week's 31-24 come-from-behind win over Minnesota as 28-point home favorites. Kirk Cousins threw for 296 yards and a pair of touchdowns without being intercepted, while Le'Veon Bell rushed for 96 yards and two TDs on 15 carries. For the season, Cousins has passed for 1,989 yards with a 13/5 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. Iowa bounced back from a shocking loss at Minnesota to beat Michigan by a 24-16 count as a 3 ½-point home underdog last Saturday. Marcus Coker rushed for 132 yards and two TDs to lead his team into the win column. The Hawkeyes are unbeaten at home this year and 4-2 versus the number. As home 'dogs under Kirk Ferentz, they own a 12-7-2 spread record since 1999. When these Big Ten rivals met last year, Iowa cruised to a 37-6 win as a 6 ½-point home favorite. The 'under' is 6-3 overall for Michigan St., 3-0 in its road assignments. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes have seen the 'over' go 5-4 overall, 4-2 in their home games.




Saturday - TCU at Boise State (Versus, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Most books are listing Boise St. as a 15 ½-point favorite with a total of 58 ½. The Broncos are off a 48-21 non-covering win at UNLV as enormous 42-point favorites. Heisman candidate Kellen Moore threw five TD passes without getting picked off to improve his TD/INT ratio to 29/5 for the year. TCU also failed to cover as a road 'chalk' last week, beating Wyoming 31-20 as a 19 ½-point favorite. Waymon James was the catalyst with 181 rushing yards on just 12 carries, while Ed Wesley added 120 yards on the ground and two TD runs. Gary Patterson's squad has won four in a row since losing to SMU at home in OT. The Horned Frogs, who are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road this season, are 6-3-1 ATS as road 'dogs since 2005. BSU has failed to cover the spread in four consecutive home games on the smurf turf dating back to last year's regular-season finale. These teams met in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago with the Broncos winning a 17-10 decision as seven-point underdogs. The 'over' is 7-2 overall for TCU, 5-3 overall for BSU.




Saturday - Auburn at Georgia (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Mark Richt's team can clinch the SEC East title and trip to the Ga. Dome to meet the SEC West winner if it can knock off Auburn between the hedges. Oddsmakers have made the Dawgs 13-point favorites to do just that. The total is 53. UGA has won seven in a row since losing its first two games and it is a lucrative 6-1 ATS during this span. Sophomore QB Aaron Murray is the main reason why, as he's thrown for 2,060 yards while posting a 23/8 TD-INT ratio. Gene Chizik's team had an open date to get ready for its trip to Athens. The Tigers are off a 41-23 home win over Ole Miss as 11-point favorites. Clint Moseley completed 12-of-15 passes for four TDs without an interception in the win over the Rebels. When these teams met on The Plains last season, UGA raced out to a double-digit lead before Cam Newton took over and led AU to a 49-31 triumph. The 'over' is 5-4 overall for both teams this year.

[StarDust Bum]

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech

November 10, 2011

Matchup: #10 Virginia Tech (8-1) at #20 Georgia Tech (7-2)
Venue: Bobby Dodd Stadium at Grant Field (Natural Grass)
Date: Thursday, Nov. 9
Time/TV: 8:00 pm ET - ESPN
Line: Virginia Tech -1, o/u 48.5

The Thursday night roller coaster continues for me in 2011. After completely misjudging the Miami/Virginia game two weeks ago, I nailed my Thursday night parlay last week when Florida State (-14) had little trouble with Boston College, winning 38-7, while Tulsa (+2) won outright at Central Florida, 24-17. The pair of wins pushes my Thursday night record back to a respectable 7-4 (63%) and gives me some much needed momentum to finish the season out.

For the final leg of 2011, we’ll stay in the ACC and head to Atlanta to catch up with Georgia Tech as they host Virginia Tech in a crucial ACC tilt. How important has this game been the past few years? Since 2005, the survivor of the Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech game has represented the Coastal Division in the ACC championship game.

For much of 2011, it looked as if Georgia Tech might run away with the Coastal Division. And when I say “run away with it”, that is exactly what I mean. Behind coach Paul Johnson’s triple option offense, the Yellow Jackets had the number one rushing offense in the nation and were a perfect 6-0 to start the season.

What happened next was either a case of inconsistent play from Georgia Tech or simply opposing defenses learning how to properly defense the Jackets. Ultimately, it was probably a little bit of both but whatever the reason, Georgia Tech lost in back-to-back weeks against Virginia and Miami and looked very pedestrian in the process.

But just when all the experts were set to write off Johnson’s crew in 2011, the Jackets righted their ship with an impressive 31-17 win against Clemson – handing the Tigers their first loss of the season. Now rested after a bye week, the Jackets see a huge opportunity with the Hokies coming to town. Win, and Paul Johnson’s team could very week end up in the ACC Championship.

The formula for the Jackets Thursday night will be what it has always been under Johnson: limit the mistakes, play decent defense and using a devastating ground game for offense – and certainly not in that order. Behind junior quarterback Tevin Washington , Georgia Tech averages 328 rushing yards a game, good for 2nd in the nation. As one would expect, the Jackets don’t boast much of a passing offense, only averaging 146 yards a game through the air (105th nationally).

It’s good news and bad news for coach Frank Beamer as he faces Georgia Tech’s triple-option. On the plus side, the Hokies too are coming off their bye week and extra preparation for Johnson’s schemes is absolutely critical to defending it. Georgia Tech’s first loss in 2011 came facing a Virginia team who was fresh off their bye week and the extra reps in practice were seen as a key to the upset win.

The bad news for Beamer and company is that while his defense ranks sixth in the nation against the run, allowing just 86.3 yards per game on the ground, eight of the top nine tacklers from the 2010 Georgia Tech game won’t be in the lineup Thursday night either due to graduation or injury. Even worse, the Georgia Tech has averaged 311 rushing yards per game against Beamer since Paul Johnson took over in Atlanta in 2008. And that average isn’t trending in the right direction as the Jackets rushed for 278 rushing yards in 2008, 309 in 2009, and 346 last year. It’s safe to say that if Johnson’s option can top 346 yards on the ground Thursday night, the Hokies will likely be flying back to Virginia with a loss.

But the Hokies have won four of the last six against Georgia Tech and enter this game on a four game winning streak. The key for Virginia Tech Thursday night will likely be its own running game. Virginia Tech star running back David Wilson is the nation's second-leading rusher with 1,185 yards on the season. The junior has eight 100-yard games so far in 2011, including six straight. Paired with sophomore QB Logan, the Hokies have a blue collar offense which predominately keeps the ball on the ground. It’s not sexy but can be highly effective in combination with a solid defense and always potent special teams.

The bottom line in this one is Georgia Tech has averaged 41 points a game during a six-game home winning streak while the Hokies have held their last three opponents to 17 points or fewer. Whichever team comes closest to continuing those respective metrics will win this game.

Betting Notes:


Virginia Tech is 2-7 against the spread

The Hokies are 4-0 SU on the road, but 0-4 ATS

The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 on the road for V-Tech
Georgia Tech is 5-3 ATS

The Yellow Jackets have gone 5-0 SU at home (4-1 ATS)

The last three meetings between the two teams have been decided by seven points or less.

Virginia Tech has won two of the three during this span, but G-Tech has covered all three. The ‘under’ has cashed in all three.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
11/09/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/08/11 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail
11/05/11 17-*21-*0 44.74% -*3050 Detail
11/04/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
11/03/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
11/02/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
11/01/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 27-*31-*0 46.55% -*3550

Thursday, November 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Ohio - 7:30 PM ET Central Michigan +6.5 500
Central Michigan - Under 60 500

Virginia Tech - 8:00 PM ET Georgia Tech +1 500
Georgia Tech - Under 48.5 500

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Houston -34 500
Tulane - Under 73.5 500