The Bum's CFB Week # 11 Best Bets 11/8-11/12 !

[StarDust Bum]

Trending: Weeknight college football action

The college football schedule is unique. Desperate for TV money and exposure, plenty of conferences are now willing to send teams out there well before Saturday rolls around.
Weekday games provide a unique challenge for programs, who are often playing on short rest. Here’s a look at some of the trends that have emerged in games played Tuesday through Friday (excluding bowl games and season openers) over the past 10 seasons.

Weeknights have been good to monster favorites, giving 20 points or more. Since 2002, home favorites of 20-plus points are 18-9 ATS (67%). On Thursday night only, those big home favorites have fared even better, going 8-2 ATS since 2002 and a perfect 6-0 since 2008.

Some of the more middling spreads have been more troubling for favorites though. Since 2002, weeknight favorites of 14 to 19.5 points are just 27-38-2 ATS (42%), and it’s gotten worse in recent years: 14-23-1 ATS (38%) since 2007 and 9-15-1 (38%) since 2009.

Home underdogs in the teens have fared well on Friday nights. Since 2002, home underdogs of 14 to 19.5 points are 10-3 ATS (77%), and home dogs of 10 to 19.5 points are 19-7 ATS (73%). Kent State’s three-point victory over Central Michigan helped improve a Friday trend for small favorites: Since 2007, Friday favorites of less than a field goal are 12-5 ATS (71%), including seven ATS wins in a row.

There are some programs that have thrived during the week. Since 2002, BOISE STATE is 19-9 ATS, including 10-4 ATS at home. Since 2006, BALL STATE is 10-3 ATS overall, including 5-1 ATS at home. TROY has ATS wins in all six of its weekday games since 2007, and UNLV is 5-0 ATS since 2003. High-scoring HOUSTON is 8-3 ATS since 2003 and OHIO is 6-1 ATS since 2009. KENT STATE and NEVADA are both 5-1 ATS on weeknights since 2008.

On the flip side, FLORIDA STATE is just 1-5-1 ATS on weeknights since 2004. Despite all its recent success, TCU is has dropped six of seven ATS as a weekday favorite. FRESNO STATE is 2-9 ATS on weeknights since 2006. TEXAS is 1-5 ATS since 2005. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE and MISSISSIPPI STATE have both lost seven straight ATS on weeknights. HAWAII is 2-8 ATS since 2003. BYU’s win over Central Florida on a Friday night in September pushed its weeknight record to just 5-12 ATS since 2002. BUFFALO had a 6-2 ATS weeknight stretch from 2006 to 2008, but since then they’ve gone just 1-6 ATS during the week. In the Pac-12, CALIFORNIA is 0-5 ATS on weeknights since 2003 and UCLA is 0-5 ATS since 2008. In the Big East, LOUISVILLE has dropped six of its past eight weeknight games ATS and SOUTH FLORIDA is 2-8 ATS since 2008. SOUTHERN MISS is 1-7 ATS since 2006, and TEMPLE is 2-10-1 ATS since 2002, including 0-4 over the past two seasons.

[StarDust Bum]

NIU seeks 5th straight win on Tuesday night

NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (6-3)
at BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (4-5)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Northern Illinois -6, Total: 68

Northern Illinois goes for its fifth straight win on Tuesday when it visits a Bowling Green team that has lost four of its past five games.

The Huskies are piling up the offense, tallying 45.2 PPG in MAC play, while the Falcons have a subpar 21.4 PPG in conference action. NIU has averaged 287 rushing YPG in the past six games while BGSU hasn’t reached 130 rushing yards in any of its seven games versus FBS opponents this season. The Huskies are 10-3 ATS in conference play over the past two years, while Bowling Green is 5-8 ATS against MAC foes over this same span. The pick here is NORTHERN ILLINOIS to win its third straight road game, and cover the moderate point spread.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Huskies.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1992. The average score was NORTHERN ILLINOIS 35.2, OPPONENT 14.3 - (Rating = 3*).

NIU has won its past two games, both on the road, in thrilling fashion. The Huskies nearly blew a 31-10 fourth-quarter lead to Buffalo, but hung on for a 31-30 victory when the Bulls missed a game-tying extra point with 14 seconds left. Last week, NIU scored a touchdown with 19 seconds remaining to pull out a 63-60 win at Toledo in the highest scoring regular-season game in MAC history. QB Chandler Harnish threw for 265 yards and six touchdowns, while adding another 133 rushing yards. This was his seventh career game with 100+ yards both passing and rushing, and he now has 26 total TD (18 passing, 8 rushing) this year and only 4 INT. WR Nathan Palmer caught three TD passes against the Rockets, including a 71-yarder, and Tommylee Lewis ran back two kickoffs for touchdowns in the first quarter (100 yards and 95 yards) of that game. Harnish leads the team with 97 rushing YPG, with Jasmin Hopkins pitching in 73 rushing YPG.

Considering the Huskies rank 10th in the nation in points (41.2 PPG) and 16th in yardage (471 YPG), their offense is just fine. But defensively, they rank 109th in scoring (35.6 PPG) and 103rd in total defense (450 YPG). In five non-home games, they are allowing a ridiculous 46.4 PPG and 576 total YPG.

Unlike the high-powered Huskies, Bowling Green’s offense has been in a tailspin during a current 1-4 stretch. The Falcons are averaging 16.0 PPG during this span, not surpassing 21 points in any of these contests. QB Matt Schilz has thrown 5 TD and 6 INT in these five games, but he did pass for 400 yards at Kent State in the last game and now has 12 consecutive games with at least one TD pass. A big reason Schilz threw for so many yards against KSU is because top RB Anthon Samuel did not play because of post-concussion symptoms. Samuel is expected to return on Tuesday night, seeking his sixth 100-yard rushing effort this season.

The Bowling Green defense has played much better at home this year, allowing 19.8 PPG and 332 YPG (compared to 33.0 PPG, 426 YPG on road). The team must improve its minus-10 turnover ratio though, as the defense has a meager three takeaways in the past five weeks combined. These schools have only met once since 2004, a 16-13 NIU win in 2008.

[StarDust Bum]

Books have solid Saturday

November 7, 2011

LSU and Alabama played to a virtual draw for 60 minutes until LSU kicked the game winning field goal to win 9-6 in overtime. While some college football fans may scoff at the lack scoring the same way they do in 1-0 baseball game, there’s no denying that the ’Game of the Year’ was thick with drama throughout and captivating.
In a game like this that plays out almost exactly like most of us wanted it to, it’s the little things that sometimes stand-out or get exposed more that we never really took notice of in pre-game analysis. The weakness of Alabama’s kicking game was exposed right from the start as they missed four field goal attempts.

Perhaps the best part of the entire game was the chess match between the two field generals. The battle between Les Miles and Nick Saban was like Rommel vs. Patton or Spassky vs. Fischer; two great minds at their craft playing to a stalemate for much of the match.

A lot of us probably found ourselves finding a new gained respect for the job that Miles did in berating such a formidable opponent in one of the greatest home field advantages in football.

Do we want to see it again?

Kind of...

Most of us still wanted more after the game was over. Not only just because of maybe a bet on Alabama, but because of the edge-of-the-seat excitement each possession and play provided. Between the history and status of these two programs and also the fact that they may be the two best teams in the nation, what would be wrong with seeing them go at it again?

LSU may look like they have a clear path to the BCS Championship game, but they still have two pretty formidable opponents left. Arkansas has proven to be a completely different team on the road, but they’ll give LSU a game in Baton Rouge on Nov. 25. Should LSU win that game, they’ll likely play Georgia for the SEC Championship.

For Alabama to get into position to play LSU again, they’ll need a lot of help beginning with Oregon beating Stanford this week. To help their cause, Alabama should hope for Auburn to beat Georgia this week to strengthen their rating and get a few bonus points for beating them Nov. 26 in the Iron Bowl. They’ll then need Oklahoma to knock off Oklahoma State Dec. 3.

As West Coast football fans, most of us still have hopes for Stanford and Boise State, but are we sure either of those two teams could provide the type of football game most of us want to see, the type we just watched on Saturday. It’s doubtful, so let’s play two.

Las Vegas Hilton Super Book vice president Jay Kornegay disagrees and believes someone else should get a chance

“The BCS wants to see a rematch, but I don’t. If Boise State is undefeated with only one other team, they deserve a shot at the National Championship.”

Las Vegas Sports Books Do Well Saturday

Between all the hoopla that surrounded the “Game of the Year,” having a large group from Idaho in town and having the Breeders’ Cup running, the Las Vegas sports books saw a boost in handle over the same weekend last year.

Horse bettors that don’t normally bet sports were drawn to the sports side to make wagers and be part of the excitement.

People who rarely ever come into a casino were drawn in just because of the LSU-Alabama game. While some just made their bet on the game by itself and went home, others stayed a little longer and either played a parlay tying other teams to the big game or took part in some of the other casino activities.

Boise State fans filled the Silver Bowl on Saturday night, but were present all over the strip and downtown the rest of the time.

Across the board at every casino on Saturday, cash flow was up and it had nothing to do with the marketing department, but rather the circumstance of just being Vegas like no other place in the world can be.

The sports books won on Saturday, but it wasn’t because of LSU winning. It was more about having higher handle and beating a couple of late games with the underdogs coming out strong throughout the weekend.

Last week the favorites went 22-30 with 17 of the underdogs winning outright. The day started out great for the books when some of the Big 10 schools didn’t cover, including Northwestern winning at Nebraska 28-25 as a 17-point underdog. Louisville also jumped on the double-digit ‘dog train by winning at West Virginia as a 13-point ‘dog.

Although Stanford covered again (8-0-1 ATS), for some reason there was plenty of support from the public on Oregon State taking the 21 points at home. Different week, same story, Stanford steam rolled the Beavers in the second half to win 38-13, which sets up a great match this week at home against Oregon.

Oklahoma State was playing Kansas State on ABC at the same time the Big Game was going on and the public loved laying the 21-points as part of their late action with either LSU or Alabama. K-State almost pulled off the upset, but still covered, losing 52-45.

As for the LSU game, most sports books reported it being either a small win or a wash, showing just how evenly bet the game was.

“They played this game like a bowl game,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne, “they laid the points with Alabama and took the plus-money with LSU on the money-line.”

Osborne said he bounced around with the LSU money-line from +175 to +170 most of the day Saturday.

With the day being almost over and the sports books having a great day thus far, all they needed to secure it was beat Boise State and Hawaii.

The visitors from Idaho had a big impact on the handle betting with their team colors, but the locals were also very knowledgeable on UNLV, opting to side with BSU as well.

The Rebels played with a lot of passion early and at one juncture, just before the half, the score was tied 14-14. Boise State rolled to a 48-21 win, but came nowhere close to covering the 42-point everyone needed.

The last piece of the winning pie for the books came when Utah State scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to beat everyone’s favorite late ‘get-back’ team, Hawaii (-4), 35-31.

The only thing missing to make this the ultimate Vegas weekend for race and sports bettors was championship boxing match. But we’ll get that this weekend at the MGM Grand when Manny Pacquiao takes Juan Manuel Marquez. Pac-man is listed as a 1/10 favorite (Bet $1,000 to win $100).

[StarDust Bum]

Cougars, 'Boys face danger

November 7, 2011

AS THE NOOSE TIGHTENS

November is, unquestionably, the best time of the season for sports fans. The NFL enters its second-half race, college football concludes with teams scurrying for bowl bids while pro and college basketball tip off a new campaign. It’s also a great time for handicappers as value-aplenty abounds.

Our focus in the world of college football begins to center around postseason bowl games during turkey month. In particular, we like to zero in on undefeated teams at this stage of the season. That’s because the deeper they get into the season, the more pressure there is on them to remain unbeaten. As a result, the noose certainly gets tighter and tighter each week, especially when these perfect teams take to the road.

This is confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, undefeated college football teams playing on the regular season road from Game 10 on out are 90-31-1 (74%) straight up and 49-63-2 (44%) against the spread. Hence, these teams tend to suffer their first loss of the season better than one-third of the time.

Pair them up against an opponent off a spread win in its last game and they become a 43-20-1 (68%) SU and 24-38-2 (39%) ATS proposition. Pay attention Houston. The Cougars head to Louisiana on Thursday for a battle against Tulane.

Or, put them up against foe with a winning record and they dip to 46-27-1 (63%) SU and 28-43-1 (39%) ATS. Look out Oklahoma State. The Cowboys battle Texas Tech in Lubbock on Saturday.

The bottom line is these teams are at their absolute worst in these games when they bring a leaky defense into the contest. That’s confirmed by a 7-7 SU and 3-11 (21%) ATS mark in games when they are allowing 18.9 or more PPG on the season.

Both the Cougars and the Cowboys figure to suffer neck burn this weekend, with potential look ahead’s to Boise State and LSU next week.

Gentlemen, mount your horses…

[StarDust Bum]

Pac 12 Notebook

November 7, 2011

Week 10 Rewind

It may sound like a broken record, but it was another ho-hum week in the Pac 12 as for the second consecutive week, only one game was decided by single digits.

This was predicted as the game of the week and it did not disappoint as UCLA took out Arizona State 29-28 as an 8.5-point underdog and the Bruins have taken control of the Pac 12 South. The Bruins scored the winning touchdown with 49 seconds remaining but Arizona St. had a chance for the win but missed a 46-yard field goal as time expired.

The action got underway Friday and Colorado remained winless in the Pac 12 as it lost at home to USC by 25 points (42-17). The Trojans outgained Colorado 561-384 and seized control of the game with 28 unanswered points after the Buffaloes jumped ahead 7-0. USC quarterback Matt Barkley threw for 318 yards and a USC record six touchdowns.

Stanford avoided a letdown as it dominated Oregon State by outgaining the Beavers 507-285. Oregon St. pulled to within four points to open the second half but the Cardinal scored the final 21 points to win and cover, 38-13. The Beavers had one last chance to get the backdoor cover but was stopped on fourth down at the Stanford 22-yard line.

California dominated Washington State from the start as it jumped ahead 30-0 and outgained the Cougars 415-224. Washington St. punted on seven of its first eight possessions and its only touchdown came in the fourth quarter on a 26-yard drive following a Golden Bears fumble. Cal won 30-7.

Despite outgaining Utah 457-333, the Wildcats were never in this game as they fell behind 17-0 and could get no closer than 13 points. Arizona had three interceptions and two missed fourth down conversions that resulted in 180 'empty' yards. Special teams hurt Arizona as it had two punts blocked and botched a fake field goal in its 34-21 home setback.

Oregon held Washington to 278 total yards while its own offense was held in check for the first half. The Huskies had three turnovers and turned it over on downs twice which led to 17 points for the Ducks. Washington had a great chance for the cover but dropped a pass in the endzone that would have pulled it to within 10 points, but the final was 34-17.

Bruins Resurgence

After being left for dead following a horrible national television loss to Arizona, the Bruins control their own destiny in the Pac 12 South. UCLA came from behind to defeat Arizona St. and should it win out, the Bruins will be headed to the Pac 12 Championship game.

"We've worked hard to get things corrected", said head coach Rick Neuheisel. "We're not perfect, but we're getting closer as a team. And we're going to fight like mad to make it four good quarters next week."

The schedule isn't easy with road games at Utah and USC but the Bruins are in a position no one would have guessed a month ago. One more win and they are bowl eligible and with a home game against Colorado, it seems likely.

They have won consecutive games for the first time since September and October of last season.

UCLA is a touchdown underdog at Utah this weekend.

Another Resurgence

While UCLA controls its own destiny, Utah will have something to say about it. The Utes started the Pac 12 season 0-4 but they have won two straight games in convincing fashion and are in the hunt in the South.

Utah will need help as Arizona St. holds the tiebreaker because of the head-to-head win but the schedule sets up well for a 5-4 record for the Utes. After hosting UCLA this weekend, Utah closes with games against Washington St. and Colorado, the two worst teams in the conference.

Chances are slim for a division title though as Arizona St. has an easy remaining slate as well so the Sun Devils will be rooting for Utah this week which would once again put the Sun Devils in the driver’s seat.

Game of the Week

Was there any question?

Oregon and Stanford have done what was asked, that is stay undefeated in the conference, to set up this colossal matchup. The winner of this game likely wins the Pac 12 North and keeps its BCS Championship hopes alive.

Stanford has won nine straight to open the season while the Ducks have won eight in a row since an opening game loss against LSU. The Cardinal are the better team according to most but Oregon has had its way with them the last two meetings despite going 1-1.

Two years ago, Stanford jumped to a 17-point halftime lead and held on for the nine-point win, despite getting outgained 570-505.

Last year, Oregon charged back from an early deficit and dominated the second half in a 52-31 victory as it outgained Stanford 626-518.

ESPN’s GameDay will make its first appearance at Stanford.

The Cardinal opened as a three-point favorite and the line is up to -3.5 in most places. With Stanford a perfect 9-0 ATS, expect this line to continue to rise throughout the week.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Tuesday, November 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What bettors need to know: Tuesday's MAC action
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Western Michigan at Toledo (-11), 8 p.m., ESPNU

Toledo faces a major letdown situation when Western Michigan visits the Glass Bowl for Senior Night.

The Rockets (5-4, 5-4 ATS) lost a back-and-forth 63-60 home game to Northern Illinois last Tuesday, an emotional defeat that delivered a major blow to their MAC title hopes.

The Broncos (5-4, 5-4 ATS) arrive off of a bye week and haven’t played since Oct. 29.

Toledo won at Western Michigan, 37-24, last September, despite being outgained 416-268.

The Line

Toledo opened as a 10-point favorite Sunday at the Las Vegas Wynn. By Monday, the Rockets were giving 11 with even a few 11.5s available offshore.

The underdog has covered the spread in the last five meetings, with the road team covering four straight.

Quarterbacks

Sophomore Terrance Owens and junior Austin Dantin have split snaps throughout the year, but Dantin played the vast majority of the game against Northern Illinois. He completed 20 of 33 passes for 321 yards and four touchdowns. Dantin had 173 yards with two touchdowns and an interception last year against Western Michigan.

Senior Alex Carder has put up huge numbers for the Broncos, throwing for 2,274 yards already, with 18 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He threw for 403 yards and four interceptions against Toledo last year.

Weather

Temperatures are expected to drop into the low 40s, with light winds and only a slim chance of precipitation.

Injury Report

Toledo starting safety Charles Rancifer was suspended for the Northern Illinois game. Coach Tim Beckman had not said publicly if Rancifer would be back against Western Michigan.

Western Michigan is not reporting any significant injuries.

Trends

Over is 20-6-1 in Toledo’s last 27 games as a home favorite and 19-7 overall as a favorite.

WMU is 10-21-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Toledo is 40-23 ATS at the Glass Bowl since 2000.



Northern Illinois (-6) at Bowling Green, 8 p.m.

The Huskies cannot afford to come out flat against an up-and-down Bowling Green team that is expecting to get its leading rusher back and had an extra week to stew over an ugly 27-15 loss at Kent State on Oct. 29.

The Falcons will need to improve their shoddy run defense (91st, allowing 190.78 yards per game) if they want to hang with the Huskies, who are averaging 246.78 rushing yards, ninth most in the nation.

On the bright side, Northern Illinois’ rushing defense is worse, surrendering 202 yards per game.

Northern Illinois hasn’t won in Bowling Green since 1986. The two teams have not met since 2008, a 16-13 Northern Illinois home win.

The Line

Northern Illinois opened as a 7-point favorite Sunday at the Las Vegas Wynn. But the line had dropped to -5.5 at a lot of books by Monday afternoon.

The Falcons are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 home games and just 2-5 ATS as a home dog under coach Dave Clawson.

Quarterbacks

Northern Illinois boast the best QB in the conference in senior Chandler Harnish (1,962 passing yards, 18 TDs, 4 INTs). Harnish also leads the Huskies in rushing.

Sophomore Matt Schilz threw for 400 yards against Kent State. He has 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, but has been sacked 20 times.

Injury Report

Bowling Green is expected to get leading rusher Anthon Samuel back. The freshman, who has five 100-yard rushing games, missed the loss to Kent State with a concussion.

Cornerback Jeffrey Garrett, a starter before suffering a hamstring injury in early October, could return, but is considered a game-time decision.

Weather

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50s with a 13 mph South wind and the possibility of late thunder storms moving in during the second half.

Trends

Bowling Green is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games in November.

Under is 8-3 in Falcons’ last 11 games as underdogs.

Over is 10-4 in Northern Illinois’ last 14 games overall.

Huskies are on a 10-3-1 ATS run in MAC play.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Tuesday's games

Underdogs covered last five Western Michigan-Toledo games, going 4-1 SU; Broncos won four of last five games in series, winning last two visits here, 58-26 (+9), 42-28 (+1.5). Broncos haven't played in 10 days, while Rockets scored 60 points at home last Tuesday but lost; they've allowed three kickoff returns for TDs in last their three games, winning four of last five. Four of last five Western games, three of last four Toledo games went over the total. Double digit home favorites are 6-4 vs the spread this year in MAC games.

Northern Illinois won three of last four games vs Bowling Green-- home teams won five of last six series games. Huskies lost last two visits here, 34-18/35-10- they gave up 90 points in last two games overall, but won both by combined total of four points, running two kicks back for TDs last week. Falcons lost four of last five days, with three losses by 12 or more points- they haven't played in 10 days, Northern played last week on Tuesday. MAC home underdogs are 9-4 vs spread this season. Five of last seven Bowling Green games went over the total.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/05/11 17-*21-*0 44.74% -*3050 Detail
11/04/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
11/03/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
11/02/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
11/01/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 25-*27-*0 48.08% -*2350

Tuesday, November 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Northern Illinois - 8:00 PM ET Bowling Green +6 500
Bowling Green - Over 65.5 500

Western Michigan - 8:00 PM ET Toledo -12 500
Toledo - Over 70 500

[StarDust Bum]

Temple looks for redemption on Wednesday

MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS (4-5)
at TEMPLE OWLS (5-4)

Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Temple -12, Total: 43

After getting lit up for 35 points and 521 yards last Wednesday on national TV, Temple will try to redeem itself when surging Miami Ohio pays a visit to Philadelphia in another Wednesday night TV game.

The Owls ranked second in the nation in scoring defense (10.0 PPG) and fifth in total defense (263 YPG) before Ohio scalded them. Now they have to regroup against a RedHawks team that has reeled off four wins in their past five games, winning the last two by a combined 76-20 score. Miami QB Zac Dysert has scored eight times in these two games, and he had a career day in his last visit to Lincoln Financial Field, torching Temple for 426 yards and 3 TD in 2009. The RedHawks, who are 10-6 ATS (63%) in their past 16 non-home games, will keep this score close, especially if Temple star RB Bernard Pierce (head) is unable to play. The pick here is MIAMI OHIO to cover.

This FoxSheets trend also backs the RedHawks:

MIAMI OHIO is 60-39 ATS (60.6%, +17.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992. The average score was MIAMI OHIO 24.8, OPPONENT 22.6.

Miami has been a much different team on the road this year, going 1-3, and failing to score 10 points in two of those road trips. Dysert has only five of his 19 total TD away from home this year. Sophomore Nick Harwell has been Dysert’s go-to receiver with six 100-yard games this season. Harwell had 82 total yards and a touchdown in last year’s 23-3 win over Temple. Miami’s ground game has been the worst in all of college football (79 YPG), but Justin Semmes might be the answer to the team’s rushing woes. He entered last week with just two rushing attempts on the season, but was given 24 carries in the blowout win over Akron, and delivered exactly 100 yards and 2 TD.

On the defensive side of the ball, Miami ranks 10th in the nation in passing defense (180 YPG), as no opponent has reached 300 yards against them. Akron QBs combined to complete just 7-of-32 passes for 90 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT last week. The defense has also forced 14 turnovers in the past seven games.

Despite the frustration of the loss to Ohio, Temple fans rejoiced in the finding of its quarterback. Sophomore Chris Coyer replaced an ineffective Chester Stewart and kept the Owls in the game by rushing for 184 yards on 17 carries (10.8 YPC), while connecting on 8-of-14 passes for 123 yards and 3 TD. Stewart and Mike Gerardi have combined for just 5 TD and 4 INT in 136 pass attempts. Pierce has had a tremendous season (MAC-best 115 rushing YPG), but his playing status is uncertain after he suffered a head injury on a helmet-to-helmet collision in the fourth quarter versus Ohio. Pierce is tied for third in the nation with 19 touchdowns, and he rushed for 178 yards and three scores in his lone meeting with Miami Ohio in 2009. If Pierce can’t go, Matt Brown proved himself capable of handing the workload with 119 yards on 22 carries against Bowling Green two weeks ago. He only had five carries in last week’s loss.

On defense, Temple ranks 10th in the nation with 292 YPG allowed, and places among the top-20 FBS schools in both pass defense (185 YPG, 14th) and against the run (107 YPG, 20th).

[StarDust Bum]

Texas Tech Out To Spoil Oklahoma State Season

The Oklahoma State Cowboys begin a stretch of two road games in less than a week when they visit the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday. Game time at Texas Tech (5-4, 2-4 Big 12) is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by ABC.

Oklahoma State (9-0, 6-0) must then travel to Iowa State six days later for another nationally televised matchup.

The Cowboys are fifth in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll, but jumped over Alabama to No. 2 in the BCS Standings after the No. 1 LSU Tigers upset the No. 3 Crimson Tide 9-6 in overtime last Saturday night. Oklahoma State also experienced a close game but rallied late to knock off Kansas State 52-45 at home.

Mike Gundy's squad came back from a 24-14 deficit and trailed 38-37 with 5:16 remaining before running back Joseph Randle scored the game-winning touchdown three minutes later.

Randle finished with 73 yards on 16 carries and scored twice while quarterback Brandon Weeden continued his campaign for the Heisman Trophy with a school-record 502 yards and four touchdown passes, including two to wide receiver Justin Blackmon, who finished with 13 catches for 205 yards. That trio came up big in last year’s 34-17 upset of Texas Tech as well.

The Red Raiders lost as 3-point home favorites and enter this year’s meeting as 19 ½-point underdogs according to the Don Best odds screen after falling for the fourth time in five games at Texas, 52-20. They have surrendered more than 43 points per game during that stretch and will host an Oklahoma State team that ranks second in the country, averaging over 50 points.

Texas Tech struggled against the Longhorns who were able to run all day on the Raiders, something that has been a key weakness for the team this season. Texas rushed for 441 yards, including 235 in the second quarter, and scored 28 unanswered points to take a 31-6 halftime lead.

Only three teams in the country have given up more yards on the ground this year than the Red Raiders.

Last season, Weeden threw for 356 yards against Texas Tech, with 207 of them going to Blackmon. Randle and Kendall Hunter combined for 225 rushing yards on 42 carries as Oklahoma State had the ball for more than 34 minutes. The Cowboys jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter en route to their third win over the Red Raiders in four years.

They are 5-1 against the spread in the last six games between the teams.

Surprisingly, the past two meetings have gone ‘under’ the total as have five of the last seven in the series. That is in sharp contrast to Texas Tech’s current trend of the ‘over’ cashing in seven of eight games.

The weather forecast for Lubbock should be conducive for a high-scoring game with a high temperature of 75 under partly cloudy skies.

[StarDust Bum]

LSU Tigers Lead Parade Into Week 11 Betting

Things have generally had a way of working out as far as matching up the top two teams in BCS Championships. There are folks in Boise and Ft. Worth who might disagree with that, but in terms of pitting the best two schools from automatic qualifier conferences, the BCS system has done its job.

It's beginning to look like that won't be the case this season.

Drew Alleman's short overtime field goal had barely passed through the uprights last Saturday night in Tuscaloosa before people were clamoring for a rematch between LSU and Alabama in this year's title tilt. The 9-6 win for the Tigers kept LSU atop the BCS Standings while the Crimson Tide, No. 1 all season in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, fell just one rung to third.

Everything could eventually work out again this season...but apparently only if Oklahoma State wins out. The Cowboys, who survived a scare at home vs. Kansas State to win 52-45 as 21-point favorites, inched up to second in the BCS behind LSU.

Oklahoma State will look to move to 10-0 this Saturday when it makes a dangerous trek to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech. College football oddsmakers have the Cowboys laying 17½.

Mike Gundy's group isn't necessarily safe even if OSU ends the campaign with a 12-0 mark, a record that would include a home victory over the Oklahoma Sooners in the final week of the regular season (Dec. 3). Stanford, fourth in last week's Don Best rankings and fourth again this week in the BCS, has three more regular season games left plus potentially a 13th game in the Pac-12 Championship.

The Cardinal, currently 9-0 like both LSU and Okie State, could begin to state their case this Saturday when the Oregon Ducks come to Stanford in what might eventually prove to be the conference championship. Stanford opened as a 3-3½ point favorite for this week's marquee matchup on the college football betting schedule, and a win by Oregon would open up debate for the Ducks (8-1) returning to the BCS Championship with their lone loss coming to LSU in the season opener.

Assuming for a moment Stanford wins this week and goes on to a 13-0 mark, would it be enough to vault ahead of both 'Bama and Oklahoma State in the BCS? The Cardinal still have a home date with Notre Dame in two weeks, and a victory would no doubt score style points with the human voters who make up two-thirds of the BCS process.

And then there's Boise State (8-0). The Broncos appear to be relegated to the undercard as far as BCS bowl games go, unless the chips fall just right. They will need both Oklahoma State and Stanford to suffer at least one loss while the Crimson Tide drop a second game.

The Broncos also have tough tests coming up just to get to 12-0, starting with Saturday's contest against TCU. Boise State opened as 13-14 point favorites over the Horned Frogs, with a trip to San Diego State and home game vs. Wyoming to follow.

Even with a 12-0 record, Boise State will have to worry about Oklahoma should the Sooners be the team to hand Oklahoma State a defeat in the Bedlam Series. If Bob Stoops' club does pull that off, it will be without star receiver Ryan Broyles who was injured in last week's 41-25 win vs. Texas A&M. An ACL injury to his left knee will sideline Broyles the rest of the season.

Oklahoma hits the Big 12 highway this Saturday to take on the Baylor Bears in Waco. Odds have yet to be posted for the matchup.

The good news for everyone chasing LSU right now is the Tigers shouldn't be able to increase their hold on the top slot in the BCS this Saturday when the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers come to Baton Rouge. Les Miles' squad is a huge 42-point favorite.

The remainder of the top matchups for Week 11 includes:

•Thursday finds an ACC showdown between Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. A half-game separates the two at the top of the Coastal Division, and the Hokies are giving up 1½ on the road at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta.
•Alabama will look to bounce back into the win column Saturday as a 17-point favorite at Mississippi State. The series has historically been a solid 'under' bet and the Crimson Tide will be searching for their fourth consecutive win over the Bulldogs.
•Nebraska (-2½) opened as a small road favorite at Penn State despite the Cornhuskers' embarrassing home loss to Northwestern last week, 28-25. That chalk is no doubt tied to the scandal that has rocked the Nittany Lions' football program the past few days.
•Once the totals are released across the board, the highest number could be at Bill Snyder Stadium in Manhattan where Kansas State entertains Texas A&M. The Aggies are consensus 5-point favorites in early betting action and just 2-7 ATS this season while the Wildcats are 7-2 covering spreads, 6-3 beating the number against A&M in Big 12 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Florida Gators Seek Revenge At South Carolina Gamecocks

Steve Spurrier was able to go down to the Swamp last year with his South Carolina Gamecocks and pull off an upset of the Florida Gators to claim the SEC East title. The Gators will look to get a measure of revenge when these two renew ties on Saturday afternoon.

Kickoff from Columbia is set for 12:00 p.m. (ET), and CBS will be there with live coverage of the game.

The Gamecocks (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) likely had their BCS dreams smashed last week when they were beaten on the road by the Arkansas Razorbacks. Now, they're a game in the loss column behind the Georgia Bulldogs for the lead in the SEC East, and need a win plus a Georgia loss in one of its last two SEC games to make it to the SEC Championship Game for the second straight season.

Spurrier's defense has either been out of this world or absolutely atrocious all season long. The Vanderbilt Commodores, Tennessee Volunteers and Kentucky Wildcats were all held to just three points apiece, while both the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide were kept in the teens.

However, for every good result, there is one like last week's 44-28 loss to the Hogs, one of the three games on the campaign in which the Gamecocks have allowed at least 37 points.

The offense just can't afford these types of lapses by the defense. Connor Shaw is still far too inexperienced to put a ton of points on the board, as he only has one game this year with more than 28 scored. He isn't being helped all that much by the running game either, which just hasn't looked the same since Marcus Lattimore went down with an ACL injury a few weeks ago.

Shaw suffered a concussion in the loss to Arkansas, and his availability is holding up the spread release for this contest. The Don Best injury report lists Shaw as questionable.

The Gators (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) went on a rare four-game losing streak in October, but remedied that situation on Saturday with a 26-21 win over the Vanderbilt Commodores. Florida is one win away from bowl eligibility, meaning the Gators need a win this week or two weeks from now when they host Florida State.

John Brantley's season started with high hopes, but it has quickly faded. Now, he only has 1,360 passing yards on 58.8 percent completions with six TDs against three INTs.

It feels like the ground game should be doing more damage than it actually is. Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey do have 1,020 rushing yards between them, but are averaging 5.73 YPC with eight touchdowns. Last year, the duo of speedsters averaged 6.42 YPC.

Demps has an ankle injury that kept him out of the lineup against the Commodores, but he hopes to be back in this one.

The Gamecocks only have two wins in this series since Spurrier made the move to Columbia, winning last year in Gainesville and in 2005 here in Columbia. That being said, they have a 4-2 ATS record over the last four seasons.

Neither one of these teams has played particularly well against teams with a winning record. Florida is winless ATS in its last four games in this situation, and South Carolina is just 1-5 ATS in its last six.

There is no chance for rain in the forecast for Saturday, and it should be a great day for football. Expect relatively light winds and temperatures in the mid-60s.

[StarDust Bum]

Alabama On Rebound At Mississippi State Bulldogs

We've seen it time and time again this year. A team that is ranked in the Top 10 in the country loses a game, and then it goes on to lose a second straight game to go from National Championship contender to BCS pretender.

The Alabama Crimson Tide hope to avoid that same fate when they travel to Starkville on Saturday for their SEC West college football betting affair with the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Kickoff from Davis Wade Stadium is set for 7:45 p.m. (ET), and the broadcast can be seen on ESPN and ESPN3.com.

The Crimson Tide (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) were rolling right along this season before running into the LSU Tigers last week at home. The 9-6 loss in overtime could have dropped the team significantly further than it did, but Alabama is still ranked No. 3 in the BCS rankings. Winning out, parlayed with a loss by the Oklahoma State Cowboys, very well could setup a rematch with LSU in the BCS Championship.

Though the offense was lackluster last Saturday, the defense certainly wasn't. This is a unit that has been remarkable all season long, and that should continue this week.

The Crimson Tide rank No. 1 in the land in the four major defensive categories, a feat which is virtually impossible to pull off. They are allowing just 130.7 passing yards, 56.3 rushing yards, 187.0 total yards and 7.1 points per game. The team is on a pace, even if it does go on to play in the SEC Championship Game, to allow fewer than 100 total points on the campaign.

Mississippi State (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) isn't your average bottom of the barrel conference team. This is a squad with a mean streak to it, and it is one that has the ability to play with any team in America.

Losses to the Auburn Tigers, LSU Tigers, Georgia Bulldogs and South Carolina Gamecocks all came by two touchdowns or fewer, something that has to put Alabama on notice in this one.

This game also takes on some extra meaning for Mississippi State who needs one more win to become bowl eligible once again.

Vick Ballard paces a great rushing game that ranks No. 37 in the country. Ballard has 790 yards and seven scores this year while his backup, LaDarius Perkins, has 312 yards and a score as well.

Chris Relf and Tyler Russell will both take snaps, but neither is particularly efficient throwing the rock. The two have only thrown for 1,882 yards and 14 TDs against 10 INTs.

Expect another low scoring game in this one. The 'under' is 7-1 in MSU's last eight games as an underdog, and it is 10-3 in its last 13 games played in the SEC. The Tide are 35-16-1 for 'under' bettors in their last 52 games in November and 20-9-1 in favor of low scorers in their last 30 conference tilts.

Four straight, and eight out of 10 meetings of these two teams, have failed to reach the total as well, including last year's 30-10 win for the Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium. There hasn't been a game this decade in which these two teams have combined for more than 44 points between them.

Alabama, who dropped to second in the Don Best Linemakers Poll after being ranked No. 1 all season, has opened up as an 18-point favorite, but that number trickled down to 17 as of Monday morning.

The forecast is calling for a cloudy day in Starkville with temperatures in the low-60s around kickoff. The good news is that there is little chance for rain.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[StarDust Bum]

Tennessee Volunteers Pay Visit To Arkansas Razorbacks

The Arkansas Razorbacks are suddenly a real threat for the SEC title as they host the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday evening.

This pointspread is currently off the board at Don Best, likely due to the injury situation for Tennessee quarterback Tyler Bray. ESPN2 will broadcast from Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville at 6:00 p.m. (ET).

Arkansas was a very interested party in the Saturday night No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown between LSU and Alabama. The LSU victory (9-6) boosts Arkansas’ SEC West title hopes, even if it needs a win at LSU on November 25 to have a chance.

The Razorbacks (8-1 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) first have to take care of business against Tennessee. They’re coming off one of their better wins of the season, 44-28 over South Carolina as 5-point home favorites.

The win actually dropped Arkansas from No. 7 to No. 8 in the BCS standings, getting leapfrogged by Oregon. The Hogs remained ninth in the Don Best Linemakers Poll.

Arkansas had an all-around effort against South Carolina, throwing for 299 yards, rushing for 136 and getting a kickoff return for a touchdown. It was a 2-point game (30-28) until almost midway through the fourth quarter when two TDs put it out of reach.

Quarterback Tyler Wilson leads the eighth-ranked passing offense in the country (318.7 YPG) and the team is 15th in scoring (37.7 PPG). South Carolina had only allowed 37 points in its prior five games combined, but wasn’t used to facing so many weapons.

Coach Bobby Petrino’s guys are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in true home games this year. The prior one was a 38-14 win over Auburn as 10-point favorites. There were also wins over Troy (38-28) and Missouri State (51-7), failing to cover the former as 23-point favorites.

Arkansas can’t afford to take Tennessee lightly. It needed come-from-behind wins in its prior four games before South Carolina, three of them decided by five points or less.

The Volunteers (4-5 SU, 3-4-2 ATS) finally got back into the win column last week with a 24-0 decision over Sun Belt Conference Middle Tennessee. They even got the cover as 21 ½-point favorites, ending a murderer’s row, 4-game losing streak to South Carolina (14-3), Alabama (37-6), LSU (38-7) and Georgia (20-12).

Tennessee is 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS against SEC opponents, 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS versus everyone else.

The 24 combined points scored last week went way ‘under’ the 55-point total. The ‘under’ is 5-0-1 in Tennessee’s last six games.

The 6-foot-6 sophomore Bray (thumb) has missed the last four games after an impressive start of 14 TDs, two picks and a 165.3 quarterback rating. He didn’t do as well against the two SEC opponents (Florida, Georgia), but it would be a big boost if he can overcome his ‘doubtful’ status and play.

Freshman Justin Worley has started the last two games after sending senior Matt Simms to the wolves against LSU and Alabama. The true freshman was an efficient 23-of-32 for 291 yards and a touchdown last week after struggling big-time against South Carolina (105 passing yards).

Tennessee will see pressure from an Arkansas defense that had a season-high five sacks last week. Running the ball would slow them down, but the Vols could only gain 120 yards on 45 carries (2.7 per carry) against Middle Tennessee and have been horrid rushing all year (86.9 YPG, 118th out of 120th nationally).

The defense has to be happy about the shutout last week and the 14 points allowed to South Carolina, but this is a big step up in offensive competition.

Tennessee’s pass defense ranks 17th in the country (186.8 YPG), but isn’t that good and Arkansas is scoring 44.2 PPG in home and neutral site games. The pass-happy Wilson will have plenty of open receivers even with Greg Childs (knee) still trying to breakthrough after a tough season.

These teams haven’t met since 2007 with Tennessee winning 34-13 at home in a pick ’em. Arkansas was 6-1 ATS in the prior seven meetings and is 4-0 ATS in the last four at home.

Weather in Fayetteville should be mostly sunny and reach the 60s during the day. The temperature at kickoff will likely be in the 50s.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[StarDust Bum]

Distracted Penn State Hosts Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Penn State Nittany Lions are facing a major distraction as they prepare for a Saturday home game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

ESPN will broadcast from Beaver Stadium at noon (ET) and Penn State is a 3-point underdog at Don Best. That pointspread is certainly affected by the recent scandal that has shaken the once model program to its core.

The latest news coming out of ‘not so Happy Valley’ is the step down by Athletic Director Tim Curley and administrator Gary Schultz after facing criminal charges. This all stems from the sexual abuse allegations against former defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky and the duo not reporting disturbing allegations to the police.

Coach Joe Paterno will not be charged with any crimes, but there are many calling for his resignation, saying he didn’t do enough after being informed of Sandusky’s actions. That’s a lot of stress for any man to take, especially an 84-year-old with a rock-solid reputation since taking over the head coaching reigns in 1966.

Paterno needs to somehow get his guys ready amid the controversy. Penn State (8-1 straight up, 2-7 against the spread) is up to No 12 in the BCS standings and more importantly in control of the Big Ten Leaders Division with a 5-0 record, two games ahead of Wisconsin and Ohio State (both 3-2).

The Nittany Lions finish the season with road games at Wisconsin and Ohio State, expected underdogs in both, so getting this home win is crucial. BCS No. 19 Nebraska is the first ranked opponent they’ve faced since the 27-11 loss versus Alabama back in September.

The biggest question this week is at quarterback. Matt McGloin started the last game before the bye versus Illinois, but was just 9-of-24 for 98 yards in the 10-7 win. Rob Bolden threw four passes, completing none, but should get some snaps this week. One thing for sure, more than 10 points will be needed to get another victory.

Penn State is 55th in the country in rushing (162.4 YPG) behind Silas Redd (1,006 yards) and can have success versus the Cornhuskers run ‘D’ (160.8 YPG, ranked 64th).

The Nittany Lions failed to cover the Illinois game as 4 ½-point favorites and are just 1-5 ATS at home despite being 5-1 SU.

The ‘under’ is 7-1-1 in Penn State’s games, scoring 21.8 PPG and allowing just 12.4 PPG. Questionable competition is part of the reason for the low points allowed. The total for Saturday is 43 points.

The Cornhuskers (7-2 SU, 3-6 ATS) are facing their own controversy, but fortunately it stems only from actions on the field. A 28-25 home loss to Northwestern last week as 17 ½-point favorites was a shocker in its own right.

Nebraska is now in second place in the Legends Division. That’s tied with Michigan and Iowa (the next two opponents) and one game behind Michigan State who the 'Huskers beat 24-3 on October 29.

The Northwestern defeat ended a 3-game winning streak and the defense gets most of the blame by allowing 468 total yards, 261 of them passing even with star quarterback Dan Persa (shoulder) out for the second half.

Nebraska also surrendered 207 rushing yards, although it came on 54 carries. Key defensive lineman Jared Crick (pectoral) hasn’t played since October 8 and is out for the season.

Coach Bo Pelini needs to get his own running game going. Nebraska was held to just 122 rushing yards last game, only the third time under 200 this season. Quarterback Taylor Martinez has improved as a passer the past few games, but the team is more comfortable pounding away with Rex Burkhead in addition to Martinez’ scrambling.

The Cornhuskers are 2-1 SU and ATS on the road. They did get spanked (48-17) at Wisconsin in early October, but played much after that before the Northwestern debacle.

These two storied programs have met just twice in the last 28 years (2002 and 2003), with each team winning at home. Penn State went 2-0 ATS.

The Don Best Linemakers Poll has Penn State ranked in a tie for 25th (108.9), much lower than the BCS. Nebraska is a much closer 18th (110.6).

Weather should be mostly sunny and in the low 50s.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------