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**Udog** · 11-07-2011, 08:27 AM

Monday’s betting tips: Can Vick finally solve Bears?

Who’s hot

NFL: Chicago is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven Monday games.

NHL: The over is 5-1 in Boston’s last six games.

NHL: San Jose is 6-2 in its last eight.

NCAAB: The over is 8-3 in Arizona’s last 11 home games.

Who’s not

NFL: Philadelphia is 1-3 straight up and against the spread in its last four meetings with Chicago. Mike Vick is 0-3 straight up in three starts against the Bears, taking 10 sacks.

NHL: The New York Islanders are 1-8 in their last nine trips to Boston.

NHL: Los Angeles has dropped four in a row.

NCAAB: Mississippi State is 5-11-2 in its last 18 home games.

Key stat

18 – The Chicago Bears are 57-10 straight up since 2004 when they score 18 or more points. The Bears are averaging 24.3 points per game this season.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Quinn McDowell, William and Mary – McDowell averaged 15.5 points per game last season, but may have trouble with his knee to start the season. The meniscus separated from the capsule in his right knee before preseason practice and while he’s listed as probable for Monday’s game at St. John’s, it’s thought his knee still isn’t 100 percent. William and Mary is set as an 8-point underdog.

Game of the day

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-8, 47)

Notable quotable

“We just got better by leaps and bounds (last season) and I hope we can do it again. It’s not about panicking as much as being very realistic that here’s our starting point and here are the things we need to do get better. We better get a lot better or Valparaiso is going to come in (Monday) and beat us.” – Arizona coach Sean Hill ahead of the basketball Wildcats’ season opener Monday against Valparaiso. The Wildcats are set as 13-point favorites with a 137.5-point total.

Notes and tips

Mississippi State's Kristers Zeidaks has been ruled ineligible for the entire season in addition to the first 11 games of next season. Zeidaks earned the ban for playing with and against professional players in his home country of Latvia. The 21-year-old will enroll at Mississippi State and begin taking classes in the fall while waiting to regain his eligibility. The Bulldogs host Eastern Kentucky as 17-point favorites Monday.

The Los Angeles Kings shuffled their lines for Sunday’s practice in an effort to give the offense a boost. Dustin Penner, who has just one assist in 11 games, is catching a lot of heat for his slow start but may be featured on the second line for Monday’s game against San Jose. He practiced with Mike Richards and Anze Kopitar Sunday. The Kings are set as +125 underdogs at San Jose.

**Udog** · 11-07-2011, 08:36 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- ESPNU replayed the LSU-Alabama game late Sunday night, even though the game was on CBS. Good work by the SEC.

-- Road teams were 10-3 against the spread Sunday.

-- 63 of 129 NFL games this year were decided by 7 or less points.

-- Going into Sunday's games, three punters were averaging 50+ yards a punt; eight were averaging 48+. Are the footballs juiced now?

-- Aaron Rodgers has 24 TD passes, 3 INTs this year. Not bad.

-- As far as I know, Jeff Fisher is currently unemployed; if any of you know Rams' owner Stan Kroenke, please tell him. Thanks.

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday.........

The last half-hour of the Ram-Cardinal game left me in a state where its not a good idea to express my thoughts yet, since this is a family website, but I'll pass along some thoughts on each of the 13 games played Sunday, and I'll go in order of the rotation on the Las Vegas schedules......

13) Falcons 31, Colts 7-- Julio Jones scored on TD passes of 50/80 yards in the first 18:05 of the game as Atlanta scored early and often, giving the winless Colts very little hope in a methodical 31-7 win. Indy's only TD was scored by the defense, one of only three defensive TDs Sunday.

12) Bucs were running ball well early on, then Raheem Morris went for it on 4th-and-1 from the Saint 34 with around 5:15 left in the first quarter; as soon as Blount got stuffed and didn't make a first down, the game was over, as New Orleans scored TDs the next two times they had the ball. Tampa Bay converted on just 2 of 12 third down plays. Saints 27-16.

11) Texans 30, Browns 12-- If you read between the lines, Cleveland has internal issues with regards to player contracts and also they've changed to a new offense and don't have all the pieces they need yet. Texans ran the ball down their throats (261 yards); and were 9-14 on third down.

10) Buffalo Bills wore white jerseys at home for the first time since 1986 and they got their butts kicked by a division rival. If I ran a team, there is no freakin' way my team would veer too far away from the normal when the big games rolled around. Routine is important for athletes. Pittsburgh wore its throwback uniforms for the Raven game. Bad idea.

9) Dolphins 31, Chiefs 3-- Under was 9-4 Sunday, as offenses continue to be strangled by the men who call plays. Unless one team gets ahead by 10 or more points, coaches play not-to-lose. You need TDs on special teams and defense to get games over the total. If one team gets a big lead, then a game will open up. Hard to know that beforehand.

8) 49ers 19, Redskins 11-- 7-1 Niners had a 19-yard advantage in average starting field position. Redskins' TD in last 3:00 keeps them from going back-to-back games without a TD. Somehow, since her husband is coach and son is offensive coordinator, I'm guessing Mrs Shanahan isn't exactly having lot of fun these days. Just a guess.

7) Cowboys 23, Seahawks 13-- Dallas drove 96-86 yards on its 2nd/3rd drives of the game, but didn't score a TD either time. Seahawks started 9 of 10 drives 80+ yards from paydirt; one time they started less than 80 yards away, they scored their only TD. Seattle hosts the Ravens next, in a huge trap game for Baltimore.

6) Broncos 38, Raiders 24-- Denver scored last 24 points of game- they ran ball for 298 yards, with QB Tebow getting 117. He is now 3-2 as an NFL starter. Oakland is now 0-10 in its last ten post-bye games.

5) Bengals 24, Titans 17-- Funny how Chad85Johnson left Cincinnati for the Patriots, and now the Bengals are contenders and the Patriots look like a team on the decline. I'm just sayin'.......

4) Cardinals 19, Rams 13 (ot)-- %($&+%@+)($%#&!(*!!!!!! Quick note: It used to be an extreme no-no to field a punt inside your own 10; now in the ESPN era, everyone wants to get on SportsCenter, so if the ball is on the field, its getting returned. Please punt the %+&#$ ball out of bounds.

3) Giants 24, Patriots 20--Later this month, Giants will lose a couple of games in a row and nitwits will call for Tom Coughlin's head, because he is an older man and not media-friendly. What he is, and I mean this, is one of the best coaches in NFL history. Seriously, who coaching now would you say is better, other than the cheating bastard Coughlin beat Sunday?

By the way, I was 100% wrong on this game; thought the Patriots would put a hurtin' on Big Blue, and I was very wrong. Question becomes, does that mean I overrated New England or underrated the Giants?

2) Packers 45, Chargers 38-- Think about how much grief Packer GM Ted Thompson must've taken when he got rid of Brett Favre; he put his whole career on the line, and look how right he was. Aaron Rodgers is well on his way to being better than Favre (he still has a ways to go) but making Rodgers the #1 guy was gutsy and right. Thompson must smile a lot.

1) Baltimore converted 14-21 on 3rd down, an exceptional performance in a rivalry game; 18 of their 23 first downs came via the air, so hats off to Joe Flacco for the best game of his career, tossing the winning TD pass with 0:08 left to send a lot of fans in Pittsburgh home unhappy.

**Udog** · 11-07-2011, 08:54 AM

NHL
Dunkel

NY Islanders at Boston
The Islanders look to take advantage of a Boston team that is coming off a 7-0 win over Toronto and is 0-5 in its last 5 games after allowing 2 or less goals in their previous game. New York is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+170). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7

Game 1-2: NY Islanders at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.957; Boston 11.592
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+170); Over

Game 3-4: Los Angeles at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.105; San Jose 11.570
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-140); Under

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, November 7

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NY ISLANDERS (4-5-0-2, 10 pts.) at BOSTON (5-7-0-0, 10 pts.) - 11/7/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 7-13 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 14-20 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 0-5 ATS (-8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
BOSTON is 0-5 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 5-3 (+0.6 Units) against the spread versus NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-3-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

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LOS ANGELES (6-4-0-3, 15 pts.) at SAN JOSE (7-4-0-1, 15 pts.) - 11/7/2011, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 78-42 ATS (+22.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 64-68 ATS (+157.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 67-58 ATS (-57.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 8-10 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 10-8-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.5 Units)

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NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, November 7

Hot teams
-- Bruins won last two games, 5-3/7-0, but they're 3-5 at home.

Cold teams
-- Islanders lost six of last seven games; they're 0-3 on the road.
-- Kings lost their last four games, scoring six goals. San Jose lost three of its last four home games.

Totals
-- Four of last five Islander games stayed under the total. Five of last six Boston games went over.
-- Four of five San Jose home games went over the total.

Series records
-- Islanders lost four of last five games against Boston.
-- San Jose won five of last seven games against the Kings; they bounced LA from the playoffs in six games last spring.

NHL

Monday, November 7

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
NY ISLANDERS vs. BOSTON
NY Islanders are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games
NY Islanders are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Boston
Boston is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Islanders
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

10:30 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. SAN JOSE
Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Los Angeles is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Jose
San Jose is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Jose's last 7 games at home

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NHL

Monday, November 7

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Ice picks: Monday's best NHL bets
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New York Islanders at Boston Bruins (-195, 5)

Maybe the Boston Bruins have finally snapped out of their post-Cup funk.

Boston hammered the Maple Leafs 7-0 in Toronto Saturday night, winning consecutive games for the first time all season. Tyler Seguin, who landed in Boston as a part of the Phil Kessel trade, picked up his first career hat trick and now leads the club with 14 points in 12 games.

"Guys just need to get back in the rhythm, some of us are slowly starting to get it now," Seguin told reporters ahead of Saturday’s win. Now it's just about consistency and if we're going to continue to do that or if we are going to go back into the hole."

The win over Toronto gives the Bruins some swagger as they get set to open a nice stretch at home. Meanwhile, this is the beginning of a mini road trip for the Islanders, who just upset Washington to snap a six game losing streak.

Too much chalk on the home team, so we’ll stick with the total.

Pick: Over

Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks (-140, 5)

The Los Angeles Kings are trying to stay positive, but a four-game losing skid is beginning to wear on them.

With Jonathan Quick and Jonathan Bernier in the crease, the Kings haven’t had to worry much about their defense. The main problem has been at the other end of the rink. They have been held to two or fewer goals in seven of their last eight.

"We're trying to find a way to be more creative out there, to get our defensemen more involved,” forward Justin Williams told reporters. “It's just the way teams play (defensively) right now. It's five guys down real low, and when we don't use our defensemen, it's kind of like playing 3-on-5 down there, and that's tough. So we're trying to get them more involved and be a little more imaginative."

They could have a good shot at doing just that against San Jose. The Sharks usually don’t have any problems on offense, but they do struggle in their own end and kill off just 73 percent of their penalties.

Pick: Over

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NHL

Monday, November 7

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Pucking the trends: This week's best NHL bets
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Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

HOT TEAM: Nashville Predators

When you have good goaltending and defense, and your forwards begin to play with confidence, teams can be capable of anything in this league, and the Predators are a good example.

Nashville’s offense isn’t going to strike fear in opponents, but with Pekka Rinne in net, and Shea Weber and Ryan Suter on the back line, the forwards just have to make the most of their opportunities. And so far, so good.

David Legwand scored two goals Saturday, as the Predators outlasted San Jose, 4-3. It was Nashville’s fourth win in the last five games, and the Predators captured at least a point in all five.

The key to anything with Nashville, though, is Rinne, and that’s a good thing. Armed with a new contract, he made 19 saves in the second period alone vs. San Jose, and already has three shutouts on the season.

The West will be tough, moving forward, but Nashville seems to have enough players to continue to make some sweet music for bettors.

COLD TEAM: Columbus Blue Jackets

We gave them a one-week reprieve from this label, but when you only have two wins through one month of the season, we can’t help but point you out again.

Saturday was a microcosm of Columbus’ season. An early deficit, a goaltender change, and overall lackluster play ended in a dreadful, video-game-like 9-2 defeat in Philadelphia. The loss dropped the Blue Jackets to 0-7 on the road this season.

Clearly, they are missing Jeff Carter, the high-scoring, injured forward who they snagged from the Flyers over the summer. But when you haven’t scored more than two goals in four of the last five games, clearly, there’s more fault to be handed out than just one player being out.

Columbus does have a little break this week, so they won’t lose again until -- at the least -- Thursday vs. Chicago.

OVER PLAY: Washington Capitals

Kudos still must go out to Washington for snaring goaltender Tomas Vokoun at a bargain-basement, summer price. Vokoun has been good -- he made 30 saves Saturday vs. the Islanders -- but it hasn’t stopped the Capitals from running, gunning and cashing in overs.

Their 5-3 loss to the Islanders was Washington’s fourth straight over, and sixth in the last seven games.

As such, the numbers are starting to pile up for the Capitals. They are in first place in the Southeast and seem to have more depth than usual. Alex Ovechkin has six goals. Joel Ward has four. And Nicklas Backstrom has 12 assists.

All that said, though, their offense will be tested in the next four games. Beginning Tuesday, Washington will play Dallas, New Jersey twice and Nashville in an eight-day span.

UNDER PLAY: Anaheim Ducks

You would think, even with solid goaltending in the form of Jonas Hiller, that Anaheim would be on the flip side of this equation. After all, the Ducks do have reigning MVP Corey Perry, timeless goal-scoring guru Teemu Selanne, and young gun Bobby Ryan up front.

But unders are their specialty so far. On Saturday, Anaheim fell to Detroit, 5-0. Keep in mind, the Red Wings had lost six straight headed into the game.

That under was Anaheim’s fourth in the last five games, and overall, with a break before playing Nashville on Wednesday, the Ducks were an impressive 10-3-1 under.

Now, keep in mind, there is a potential loophole here. The Ducks just finished a seven-game, 13-day road trip. With some fresher legs, perhaps will come more goals. For now, though, you can do worse than Anaheim as a consistent under play.

SURVEYING THE SCHEDULE:

** If the Bruins are going to shake the Stanley Cup Hangover once and for all -- and Saturday’s 7-0 win over Toronto was a great move toward that -- they have a golden chance to do so at home. Beginning with Monday’s game vs. the Islanders, the Bruins will play five straight games at TD Garden over an 11-day span. Only one of those five opponents -- Buffalo -- made the playoffs last season.

** Speaking of some time at home, the St. Louis Blues are in the same boat. St. Louis will play five home games in a 10-day span, beginning on Tuesday vs. Chicago. St. Louis, quickly falling behind the pack in the Central Division, is 3-1 on home ice so far.

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**Udog** · 11-07-2011, 08:59 AM

College football odds: Week 11 opening line report

Stanford seemingly plays with fire every week. For those legions of players out there who ride the Cardinal every week, and there’s a lot of you out there, you know what we’re talking about.

When you have Andrew Luck under center, though, you can make up for a lot of things. And for this year’s Stanford team, that means big finishes, and plenty of covers.

“Every single road game, we have started slow on offense, and every single road game our defense has kept us in the game,” Stanford coach David Shaw said. “That has been the way it’s been all year.”

Good thing for the Cardinal though, is that their game of the year, vs. Oregon on Saturday, is at home.

“We just try to run our offense,” Shaw said, “and keep them off balance and mix in our play action game.”

They’ll be doing plenty of that this week vs. the Ducks. But the results could be different. After all, though they clearly dismantled a soft schedule and deserve to be unbeaten, there are questions about Stanford when they finally run into one of the nation’s big boys.

Well, the Ducks, whose lone loss to LSU seems like ages ago, are one of those.

“We had to give some respect to Oregon, but we definitely wanted to make Stanford a favorite,” Pete Korner of Esportclub, LLC, in Las Vegas, told ***********. “It’s is a tight one. But I thought 3 was too much.

The Wynn Las Vegas, which is the first book in Nevada to post college football odds, disagreed and opened a point higher than the Sports Club’s number at Stanford -3 (-120).

“Oregon has shown they have the ability to win it, certainly,” Korner said. “But it is Stanford’s game here. It’s their time, they’re at home, and this is their shot.”

And with that, let’s take a look at some of next week’s other marquee games. We’ll list the Wynn’s numbers and tell you what Korner’s line consultant group sent out to its clients.

Virginia Tech (+1) at Georgia Tech

The sexier-than-expected ACC race will be in full focus on Thursday night, as the Hokies take on the Yellow Jackets. Berths in the league title game are still very much up for grabs, and this game will go a long way toward clearing up the picture.

“Lot of opinions on this one,” said Korner who recommended the game as a pick’em. “We went right down the middle. It should be a good game on primetime.”

West Virginia (+3.5) vs. Cincinnati (Paul Brown Stadium)

Tough to figure out the Mountaineers, who had positioned themselves so nicely in the Big East after a road win at Rutgers two weeks ago. But now, Cincinnati is in the driver’s seat to win the worst league in the BCS. This game, keep in mind, is not on the Bearcats’ usual field.

“West Virginia will make a bowl somewhere, but really, they’re not playing all that well,” Korner said. “Cincinnati, on the other hand, is really playing well these days, and we had to show for that.”

Miami (+10) at Florida State

Sentimental, traditional and emotional. This game will be all three, though just not that high on the national radar. That said both teams, now that the pressure is off, have been playing well of late.

“The money will come in on Florida State, so we wanted to be just above the 10 mark,” Korner, who sent out FSU -10.5, said. “They are playing better, and are putting up points. Though I do think the wiseguys will take Miami here.”

Tennessee (+14) at Arkansas

Give credit to Arkansas for continuing to deliver in the shadow of LSU and Alabama. It likely won’t get them anywhere, but they do have interest across the betting world, and can score points with the best of them.

“I think they win this one big, and have been playing real well for themselves quietly,” Korner said. “I expect that this line might go up.”

The Wynn held this line back because of the uncertain status of Tennessee quarterback Tyler Bray who’s battling a bad thumb.

Alabama (-18) at Mississippi State

The Bulldogs are in a tough spot here. Alabama will be angry and out for blood, as they try to erase the memory of its 9-6 home loss to LSU. Primed for a bounceback, the line has to be aware of that.

The Wynn opened with the Crimson Tide favored by 18 points while some offshore shops went with Bama -17. Korner’s group went a bit higher, installing the Tide as 21-point chalk.

“We are counting on Alabama to play big here on the road, and get it back together,” Korner said. “This is another game where they can just call the final score. I do like them to bounce back here, and not quit on the title race. A few upsets and they can be right back in the mix.”

Oklahoma State (-18.5) at Texas Tech

The Cowboys received a close call from Kansas State, and boy, are there holes on that Oklahoma State defense. But they are where they are, and if they win out -- though that will be difficult -- they should have a chance at the BCS title game.

“Oklahoma State sure is entertaining, and I’ll be honest. I was watching their game, while LSU-Alabama was going on,” Korner said. “Texas Tech cannot keep up with this team. Oklahoma State is going to maul these guys.”

Michigan State (-3) at Iowa

The Spartans have a good chance in the Big Ten race, which either shows you that Michigan State is at least a little impressive, or the league isn’t any good. Either way, the Spartans have an opportunity to get closer to respectability vs. the Hawkeyes.

“Close game, good game,” Korner said. “Not that Iowa cannot win, they certainly are capable of getting a victory. But it means more to Michigan State. I expect this line to hold all week.”

TCU (+14.5) at Boise State

With some fun matchups between these two teams in the past, we couldn’t let this one get by us. TCU is not the TCU we’ve come to know. But the Horned Frogs can still play, and perhaps throw a scare into the Broncos.

The Sports Club sent out Boise State -16 while the Wynn went a little lower (-14.5) but still over the key number.

“TCU is not doing it these days, and Boise has everything to lose,” Korner said. “It means way more to Boise, and they’re at home, so I had to go with the biggest number I could.”

Nebraska (-2.5) at Penn State

This looked like a great matchup two weeks ago. Now, the Cornhuskers are coming off a home loss, and the Nittany Lions find themselves surrounded by a cloud of controversy, thanks to an arrested former coach.

The Wynn likes Penn State more than Korner’s group. The Vegas sportsbook opened with the Cornhuskers under a field goal favorite while the Sports Club recommended Penn State +3.5.

“Interesting game, for sure,” Korner said. “People are still betting Nebraska every week, so we wanted to go over the standard 3. I don’t know if Penn State will be distracted, they might be. But I think Nebraska can win and cover anyway.”

**Udog** · 11-07-2011, 11:13 AM

NHL
Short Sheet

Monday, November 7

NY ISLANDERS at BOSTON, 7:00 PM ET VERSUS
NY ISLANDERS: 15-59 SU Away off home game where both teams scored 3+ goals
BOSTON: 20-6 SU off BB division games

LOS ANGELES at SAN JOSE, 10:30 PM ET
LOS ANGELES: 11-3 SU Away off OT loss
SAN JOSE: 8-13 SU off home loss by 1 goal

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 11-07-2011, 12:31 PM

NCAAB
Dunkel

William & Mary at St. John's
The Tribe look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 7 to 12 1/2 points. William & Mary is the pick (+8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Storm favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (+8 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7

Game 551-552: William & Mary at St. John's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 62.279; St. John's 67.898
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 5 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: St. John's by 8 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (+8 1/2); Over

Game 553-554: Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 46.867; Mississippi State 66.296
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 19 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 17 1/2; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-17 1/2); Under

Game 555-556: Valparaiso at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 57.031; Arizona 74.891
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 18; 142
Vegas Line: Arizona by 13 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-13 1/2); Over

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, November 7

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WM & MARY (10 - 22) at ST JOHNS (21 - 12) - 11/7/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WM & MARY is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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E KENTUCKY (15 - 16) at MISSISSIPPI ST (17 - 14) - 11/7/2011, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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VALPARAISO (23 - 12) at ARIZONA (30 - 8) - 11/7/2011, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, November 7

Wm & Mary is one of five D-I teams never to make the NCAA tourney; they have 12 of 13 players (4 starters) back from LY's 10-22 team, but teams from CAA are generally spunky. Tribe lost by 3 at Syracuse LY, by 25 at North Carolina- they're picked #6 in CAA. St John's lost whole team from LY's 21-12 team. Storm only has eight guys on scholarship, since three recruits are ineligible. St John's is picked #12 in the Big East.

Eastern Kentucky lost three of top four scorers from 15-16 team that lost its last five games LY; they lost by 7 at Georgia. Colonels are the #7 pick in 10-team OVC. Mississippi State is picked #5 in SEC; they had a dismal 17-14, dissension-ridden season LY, but have lot of talent and add Moultrie, a talented transfer from UTEP. Bulldogs beat Tennessee State of OVC by 10 LY. EKU plays Princeton style, shoots lot of 3s.

Arizona is inexperienced; they lost an exhibition game to Seattle Pacific last week, but they're 11-deep if all four freshman contribute. Arizona lost its top two scorers from LY's 30-8 team, doesn't have any bigtime scorers, but they're picked to win Pac-12. Valparaiso lost three of top four scorers from 23-12 team that lost by 35 at Kansas, 18 at Purdue- they're picked #5 in Horizon this year. Bryce Drew replaces his dad as Valpo's coach-- Homer Drew is trying to beat cancer.

NCAAB

Monday, November 7

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
WILLIAM & MARY vs. ST. JOHN'S
William & Mary is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of William & Mary's last 9 games on the road
St. John's is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. John's is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

8:00 PM
EASTERN KENTUCKY vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Eastern Kentucky is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Eastern Kentucky is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Mississippi State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Mississippi State's last 5 games

9:00 PM
VALPARAISO vs. ARIZONA
Valparaiso is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Valparaiso is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games

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NCAAB

Monday, November 7

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College funds: Monday's best NCAAB bets
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Valparaiso at Arizona (-13.5, 137)

It’s a limbo year for the 16th ranked Arizona Wildcats. They lost do-everything forward Derrick Williams to the NBA but the help replacing him won’t be felt until their ballyhooed recruiting class shows up next season.

Coach Sean Miller’s team returns three starters from last season but he hasn’t been pleased from what he’s seen from his upperclassmen.

“They need to get better,” Miller told the Arizona Republic. “You’re wearing Arizona. You’re a veteran. A lot of guys talk about having and wanting a bigger role. There it is.”

Even more troubling, the Wildcats lost an exhibition game to Division II Seattle-Pacific last week.

“We better get a lot better or Valparaiso is going to come in (Monday) and beat us,” Miller added.

The Crusaders should have a little bit extra motivation as they try to make new coach and Valparaiso alumni Bryce Drew’s first game a winning effort.

Pick: Valparaiso +13.5

William & Mary at St. John’s (-8, 137)

Forget everything you remember about the Johnnies from last season. The Red Storm’s surprising success a year ago was the product of a senior-laden squad playing above expectations.

The 2011-12 edition returns just one player from last season’s roster. That’s the bad news. The good news is coach Steve Lavin brought in maybe the Johnnies' best recruiting class ever headlined by Moe Harkless.

The 6-8 athletic wing player is considered the Storm’s best local recruit since Ron Artest.

“Moe started it all when he chose St. John’s. . . . That’s a guy I wanted to play with,” freshman guard D’Angelo Harrison of Houston told the New York Daily News. “He was the first domino.”

Harkless and Harrison are two of the nine freshmen joining St. John’s, but only six will be in uniform Monday against William & Mary. Three recruits are academically ineligible to play this semester leaving the Johnnies bench especially thin.

Adding to Big East team’s woes is the health of Lavin. He’s recovering from prostate cancer surgery last month which means his assistants will run the show for him early on.

High player turnover, a short bench and the head coach out of the mix? Sounds like the perfect recipe for a poor defensive effort.

Pick: Over 137

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NCAAB

Monday, November 7

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November reign: Six must-bet college basketball games this month
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The college basketball season takes a little time to get rolling. Outside of some major tuneup tournaments, the early schedule is littered with one-sided warmup games between power conference programs and mid-major darlings.

However, there are a handful of made-for-March matchups in November. We talked to Andrew Patterson of Las Vegas Sports Consultants about what to expect as far as spreads go for these games.

Here’s a look at the biggest games and their odds to open the season:

Michigan State Spartans at North Carolina Tar Heels (-9.5) – Nov. 11

The Spartans and Tar Heels meet in a rematch of the 2009 national title game. But in a twist, this non-conference tilt will be played on the deck of the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier in San Diego on Veterans Day. Both teams are going to rock sweet camo uniforms for this once-in-a-lifetime contest.

The rare outdoor venue should present oddsmakers with a new challenge setting the odds for this game, especially when it come to the total.

“Look for a lower-than-normal total in this game especially if there is a little wind and the sun is out,” says Patterson.

Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-6.5) – Nov. 15

Two classic programs collide at the State Farm Champions Classic in New York City. The Wildcats could be the best team in the country with Terrence Jones and a bumper crop of freshman wonders. The Jayhawks, while not as loaded as past years, are always a tough opponent.

“Kansas will be down, but Kentucky's youth has historically played sloppy basketball early in the season,” says Patterson.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Memphis Tigers (-3.5) – Nov. 21

These two programs are trying to get back to the top of the college basketball heap and a showdown at the Maui will be the first step in that direction. The Tigers have the edge, as it pertains to the pointspreads, when No. 9 takes on No. 18. The winner will face either Duke or Tennessee in the next round of the invitational.

“Memphis returns five starters and Michigan returns four starters from a team that almost beat Duke last year in the NCAA tourney,” says Patterson.

Xavier Musketeers at Vanderbilt Commodores (-5.5) – Nov. 28

The A-10’s finest can make a splash against a team some have ranked inside their Top 5. The Commodores were just 5-8 ATS at home last season and bring back pretty much the same team.

“Vanderbilt returns 97 percent of its scoring from last season, but will be without 6-foot-11 center Festus Ezeli the first couple of months of the season,” says Patterson. “The Musketeers have one of the best guards in the country in Tu Holloway.”

Duke Blue Devils at Ohio State Buckeyes (-7.5) – Nov. 29

The Buckeyes host the Blue Devils as part of the annual Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger will match up against Duke’s three-headed Plumlee monster inside while the OSU guards try to slow down freshman sensation Austin Rivers.

“Ohio State is young, but extremely talented. I am not sure Duke - or any team in the country - has a player to stop Jared Sullinger,” says Patterson.

Wisconsin Badgers at North Carolina Tar Heels (-7.5) – Nov. 30

In another Big Ten/ACC Challenge game, the Badgers come to Chapel Hill to tangle with Harrison Barnes and the stacked UNC stable. Wisconsin, however, is not to be taken lightly. It doesn’t turn the ball over and had the fourth best defense in the land last year. North Carolina could also get caught looking ahead to Kentucky that coming weekend.

“Might be low on this game, but Wisconsin plays fierce defense and I don't see this game getting out of control,” says Patterson. “Wisconsin has a wonderful point guard in Jordan Taylor.”

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Announcement

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 11/7 (NHL, CFL, Misc.)

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 11/7 (NHL, CFL, Misc.)

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