'BAMA vs LSU (Picks/Predictions)

[wayne1218]

ALABAMA 27 - Lsu 13 - (8:00 - CBS) -- What a match! #1 Tigers: #3, #10, #4,
#3 in rushing, passing, total, scoring "D", while #2 Tide ranks #1, #2, #1, #1.
QBs Lee, McCarron respectively: #13 (13/1), #20 (10/3) in passing efficiency.
But 'Bama has revenge, home field, & Richardson in its camp. #2 tries harder.

[wayne1218]

Alabama* over L.S.U. by 3
It just does not much better than this. What sticks in our mind from LY’s 24-21
L.S.U. win in Baton Rouge is the way the Tigers got physical on offense, and had
over 200 yards both running and passing. It makes anything approaching a full TD
a worthy take. ALABAMA 23-20.

[wayne1218]

ALABAMA 20 - Lsu 19—In first-ever SEC reg.-season epic clash between
the top two nationally-ranked teams, prefer to take more than a FG in what
shapes up as classic defensive war pitting the nation’s premier stop units.
Sure, Bama’s 6-4 soph QB A. J. McCarron has done a commendable job
executing his low-risk offense thus far, but he hasn’t seen a defense possessing
as much speed and NFL-ready performers as this Tiger unit, featuring hardcharging
DE Barkevious Mingo (6 TFL, 3 sacks) & marvelous CB Tyrann
“Honey Badger” Mathieu. Sure, Tids owns the premier RB in “freakish” Trent
Richardson (989 YR, 18 TDs). But don’t see him running wild vs. the deep,
impenetrable Tiger front 7 (2.5 ypc, 77 ypg) that limited Oregon’s superstar RB
LaMichael James to a mere 54 yds. in 40-27 season-opening victory. LSU’s
ground game (225 YR) unlikely to flourish as it did in LY’s tilt vs. Bama’s
ferocious front 7, but still believe Tigers mistake-free attack (mere 3 TOs)—led
by battle-tested QB duo of Jarrett Lee (63%, 13 TDs, just 1 int.) & Jordan
Jefferson (10 of 13 for 141 in LY’s upset win)—able to hit more defensestretching
plays to superior WR corps, featuring 6-4 Reuben Randle (33 grabs,
7 TDC) & gifted frosh Odell Beckham (27). Plus, “The Hat” has shown he can
match wits with former LSU mentor “Nicktator,” with Les Miles going 2-2 SU,
with one loss a 27-21 OT setback in Baton Rouge in 2008.

[wayne1218]

ALABAMA (-4½) Lsu (43) 7:00 PM
It doesn’t get any bigger than this and the schedule sets up evenly giving
both teams two weeks to prepare for the season-making game. Both teams
have been incredibly dominant and Alabama’s statistical edges are offset by
LSU playing a much tougher schedule so far. This series has been owned by
the road team in recent years though the home team has won each of the
last two years. The winner will be in line for a shot at the national title, the
loser could end up in a number of different places. Both teams have some
tricky games remaining but this game will likely create the only loss for either
squad. Although both teams have remarkable credentials neither team has
the proven QB that you would expect. Jarrett Lee has been a career back-up
before being thrust into his starting role and A.J. McCarron is in his first
season, winning a close early season position battle. Needless to say neither
has faced a defense as good as they will face this week, so this could be a
sloppier game than the build-up suggests. It is not easy to fade Alabama but
LSU has been its best in big games and the points make sense. LSU BY 3

[wayne1218]

ALABAMA over LSU by 6
Both coaching staffs had bye weeks to prep for this game which will likely determine
who plays in the BCS national title game. Besides the game being in Tuscaloosa, AL,
’Bama has a few other slight, slight, slight edges. The Tide runs the ball better than the
Tigers. RB Trent Richardson is a beast who is extremely tough for one man to tackle. The
Tide defends the run better than the Tigers. The margin ain’t much, but in a power football
game with limited offensive snaps, any margin is a good margin. ALABAMA, 23-17.

[wayne1218]

4* ALABAMA over Lsu - First #1 vs #2 matchup in the reg ssn S/’06 and the first matchup of the top
2 tms in Bryant-Denny Stadium history. #1 is 8-12 ATS the L/20 vs #2 but has won and covered 3 of L/4.
This is Saban Bowl 5 and Bama and LSU have split the L/4 meetings since Saban took over at Bama.
Both teams are off a bye and LY both tms were also off byes and LSU held AL to a ssn low 102 rush
yds while LSU (+6’) rushed for 225 yds and pulled out a 24-21 win. LSU has outgained the Tide in 4 of
the last 5 and Miles is 4-2 SU vs AL (only LSU HC to ever beat AL 4x). The Tigers are led by QB Lee
who is avg 156 ypg (63%) w/a 13-1 ratio (#12 NCAA pass eff) while Jefferson has played in the L/4
and is getting more reps each week. RB Ware leads with 512 (4.0) and after being susp vs Aub will be
back here along with defensive star Mathieu. Bama’s young QB McCarron is becoming more than just
a game-manager and is avg 208 ypg (67%) with a 10-3 ratio while RB Richardson 989 (6.6, #7 NCAA)
and 17 TD’s could lock up a trip to NY for the Heisman with a big gm here. While LSU’s D gets alot of
pub they are giving up 251 ypg (14.4 FD’s) while Bama’s D only allows 181 ypg (9.9 FD’s). Bama is
also +280 ypg while LSU is +120 ypg. Saban has done well with revenge going 5-0 ATS covering by
14 ppg. While it is well noted that LSU is 30-1 SU S/’01 in AG’s w/a start of 6:00 pm or later, Bama is
25-1 SU at home S/’07, has the better D, the better HC and the best player on the field in Richardson.
Add it all up and Bama stakes their claim for the national title and a 5th straight winner as a 4* Key
Selection! Roll Tide!

[wayne1218]

LSU
ALABAMA
Nothing surprising about Bama winning and covering but what is surprising is the PP forecast with a DOMINATING
340-175 yd edge. Bama’s worst D effort was 251 yds at Penn St while LSU’s was 533 yds at WV.
4* ALABAMA 26 LSU 18

[wayne1218]

ALABAMA over Lsu by 3
Was there any doubt, after LSU disposed of Oregon back on September
3rd, that these two national powerhouses would arrive in Tuscaloosa
undefeated and on a ‘Collision Course’? Our Best of the Black Book was
prepared as it reminds us that the underdog in a matchup of unbeaten
squads from Game Six out is 40-19-1 ATS since 1980, including 15-7 SU
and 19-3 ATS if its defense allows less than 13.5 PPG. That’s certainly the
case for the defensive-minded Tigers. We should also point out that top
ranked teams in the AP poll are 6-3 SU and ATS as dogs when taking on
the No. 2 squad in the land. That’s plenty of ammo for the Bayou Bengals
who look to retain the top spot in the country. But there’s much more: LSU
is 5-1-1 ATS as dogs with rest, 4-1 ATS in their last four visits to Tuscaloosa
and a fi red-up 6-1 ATS after facing Auburn. Even the Mad Hatter gets in
the conversion as he is a confi dent 30-7 SU when his team is undefeated,
including 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS off a win of 28 or more points. And like
residents of 42nd street, Miles does his best work at night posting a 49-4
SU record under the lights with LSU. However, not be outdone, Nick Saban
is an eye-opening 18-3 SU and 16-4 ATS in games against undefeated
college football opponents when his team is also unbeaten, and 14-2 SU
and 13-3 ATS with SEC revenge – including 10-0 ATS the last 10 and 10-0
SU and ATS if his team allows less than 16.5 PPG! His Tide has also beaten
every SEC foe this season by at least 24 points (5-0 ATS). So how even
are these two teams, you ask? Well, according to Mike LoPresti of USA
TODAY, ‘Bama has scored 315 points and 40 TD’s this year, LSU has notched
314 points and 41 touchdowns. LSU has committed only three turnovers
all season long (none in its last fi ve games) while Alabama has just three
turnovers in its last seven games. Toss in the fact that in its two common
opponent games to date (Florida, Tennessee), the Tide rolled by 28 and 31
points, winning the stats battle by 427 yards, respectively, while the Tigers’
wins were by 30 and 31 points and a 384-net yardage advantage. Maybe
we can fi nd an advantage in the coach’s corner? Don’t count on it: Saban
has a career winning percentage of 72.8 while Miles checks in at 72.1. The
bottom line is the only thing separating these two teams is the customary
three points for home fi eld advantage, though we should point out that
the Tide is a surprising 0-6 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 points since
2005. Nonetheless, with Saban armed with SEC revenge, we’ll avoid this
low-scoring, head-on ‘collision’ and enjoy the game. The Nictator gets his
revenge; the Bengals grab the cash.

[wayne1218]

(1) L-S-U (8-0) at (2) Alabama (8-0)

GAME NOTES: For the first time in nearly five seasons and the first time ever in SEC play, the top two teams in the country will meet in the regular season, as the top-ranked LSU Tigers head to Tuscaloosa to take on the second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, with an obvious inside track to the national title game on the line.

Les Miles' Tigers are a perfect 8-0 on the season and 5-0 in-conference. They sit atop the national polls, earning the lofty spot with marquee routs of Oregon (40-27), Florida (41-11) and most recently, defending national champion Auburn (45-10) on October 22nd. LSU has won each of its games thus far by double figures.

Nick Saban's Crimson Tide have positioned themselves to play for a second national title in the last three years. Alabama is also 8-0 on the season and 5-0 in SEC play and has won each game by double figures, including statement wins at Penn State (27-11), home against Arkansas (38-14) and at Florida (38-10). The Tide, who were also idle a week ago, were last in action on October 22nd, making light work of Tennessee at home (37-6).

Saban, who has won a national title with both Alabama and LSU, knows the magnitude of a game like this and the need to keep focused on the task at hand.

"I think that everybody out there probably thinks that there is some special formula or some special magic that, when you play in games like this, that you go do different things to get ready for the game. The most important thing is that you prepare for the game and that your players are focused on playing their best football, knowing that they are going to play against good football players and a good football team."

The last matchup in the regular season between the top two teams in the country came in 2006 when Michigan took on Ohio State.

This game marks the 75th meeting in this series. Alabama holds a 45-25-5 advantage overall and has won two of the last three meetings. In addition, the Crimson Tide hold a 21-15-2 mark at home against the Tigers.

The LSU offense isn't exactly a juggernaut, but it is a balanced attack that keeps opponents guessing. The Tigers are fueled by a strong ground game that is averaging 189.0 yards per game. The team takes great care of the football as well and has gone an impressive 59 straight possessions without a turnover.

Quarterback Jarrett Lee has started all eight games for the Tigers this season and has certainly been effective when passing the ball, completing 63.2 percent of his throws. Although he has only thrown for 1,250 yards, his TD-to- INT ratio is am ultra-efficient 13-1. Despite Lee's effectiveness, Miles is likely to use QB Jordan Jefferson as well.

"We have a different starting quarterback and the things he will do will focus on other aspects. Jefferson will play a key role in Saturday's contest. How much he will play I am not certain. I can tell you the things that he does and that he does well will be oiled up and he will be ready to play."

Rueben Randle is the top target down the field, as he leads the team in receptions (33), receiving yards (638) and TD catches (7).

Still, this is a run-first team and players like Spencer Ware (512 yards, six TDs) and Michael Ford (441 yards, six TDs) are invaluable to LSU's desire to play for an SEC title and perhaps a national crown.

While LSU's offense is good, it is the defense that epitomizes greatness. The Tigers are among the best in the country, ranking third nationally in scoring defense (11.5 ppg) and run defense (76.6 ypg) and fourth in total defense (251.4 ypg).

It is overall speed that makes this unit truly special according to Miles.

"That is why you play the game. There is a great deal of speed and want in our defense in all 11 guys. I think the advantage at times is the ability to maneuver into the spot to make the tackle. There are some advantages to strength and quickness, not necessarily size."

The unit boasts of arguably the nation's best defensive player in the form of sophomore DB Tyrann Mathieu. The youngster was suspended for the last game but will be back on the field for this contest. Mathieu ranks third on the team in tackles (42) and is responsible for a number of big plays, with two INTs, three fumble recoveries, four forced fumbles and a pair of defensive touchdowns. Senior Brandon Taylor (team-high 48 tackles, two INTs) and junior Morris Claiborne (30 tackles, three INTs) add to the playmaking ability in the secondary.

The Alabama offense is a bit more explosive when compared to LSU, averaging 457.6 yards per game. It is a balanced attack that churns out over 200 yards both on the ground (229.2 ypg) and through the air (228.4 ypg).

The key for Alabama is to get All-American candidate Trent Richardson involved early and often. One of the top rushers in the country, Richardson is averaging 123.6 yards per game (seventh in the nation), and is closing in on 1,000 yards with 989 on 6.6 yards per carry. Of his 18 total touchdowns this year, 17 have come on the ground.

Richardson's production has allowed AJ McCarron to ease into his position under center. The 6-4 sophomore has connected on 67 percent of his passes this season, for 1,664 yards with 10 TDs against just three INTs. Wideout Marquis Maze is a dangerous weapon on the outside, leading the team in receptions (39) and receiving yards (482).

Much like the Tigers, Alabama's success is driven by a stellar defensive unit. There is first-round NFL talent at just about every level of this unit and the result is a defense that ranks first nationally in scoring defense (6.9 ppg), rush defense (44.9 ypg) and total defense (180.5 ypg) and second in pass defense (135.6 ypg).

The greatest concentration of talent comes in the linebacking corps, headlined by All-American candidates Dont'a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw and Nico Johnson. Hightower leads the team in tackles (48), has six TFLs, 1.5 sacks and one INT to his credit. Upshaw (26 tackles) provides the most trouble up the field for opponents, with an SEC-best 11.5 TFLs and 4.5 sacks. Johnson (24 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, one sack) is solid all-around. Hightower and Upshaw are among the 12 semifinalists for the 2011 Lombardi Award.

The play in the secondary is highlighted by safety Mark Barron (40 tackles, one INT) and cover corner Dre Fitzpatrick (19 tackles, eight PBUs, two forced fumbles). Both players were recently named among the 15 semifinalists for the 2011 Jim Thorpe Award.

The SEC has won each of the last six national titles and with either one of these teams in the BCS picture, seven in a row is likely. There is plenty of star power on both sidelines in this one, but playing at home gives Alabama a slight advantage, especially with a defense chock-full of NFL talent.

Alabama 27, LSU 24

[wayne1218]

No. 1 LSU at No. 2 ALABAMA

Edward Aschoff: Finally, we're here. The game we all care about and can't stop talking about. Even fans of other schools will be tuning in to watch the midseason Super Bowl. Both teams have the top defenses around and have dynamic offensive weapons. The quarterback play is just about even and while Alabama mainly runs behind one bull in the backfield, LSU has a stable of running back workhorses. Something has got to give and this one could come down to special teams and field position. Homefield advantage will be the difference. ... Alabama 23, LSU 20

Chris Low: Everybody has wanted to play this game since September, and now it's finally here. Both defenses are dominant, and the offenses love to pound opponents into submission in the second half with a bruising running game. Playing at home will be a huge advantage for the Crimson Tide, who will make enough big plays on offense and then take control of the game in the fourth quarter thanks to their veteran offensive line. ... Alabama 21, LSU 13

[wayne1218]

LSU at Alabama By Scouts Inc.


LSU offense vs. Alabama defense
• LSU could win or lose this game based on the outcome of its first few drives, and it needs to get QB Jarrett Lee into a comfort zone. One way to do that is to get the ball to WRs Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham on various screens and quick-hitting underneath throws. Randle and Beckham are dangerous after the catch and capable of taking low-risk throws and weaving their way to first downs, or at least to manageable situations on subsequent downs. Another way to get Lee comfortable is to establish a running game, though the ground attack will have to be supplemented by short throws on first downs against an Alabama defense known for loading the box with eight or nine defenders on first down. If the Tigers can pick up yards on short throws early it can then go back to its more traditional rushing attack in manageable second-down situations. However, based on what we've seen of Lee on tape, it will be tough to get him into rhythm on pass-heavy downs, because the Crimson Tide uses so many varying fronts (three- and four-man looks) and coverage looks (Cover 2, Cover 3, matchup zone, man-to-man, man-zone combo, quarters). It's doubtful Lee can rise to the challenge of deciphering so much different information, so the running and short passing games will be even more important.

• Alabama's linebackers will play key roles against the run and the pass. When LSU runs the ball, ILBs Dont'a Hightower and Nico Johnson must deal effectively with lead blockers. The Tigers line up in a lot of I-formation looks and will feature power plays, lead draws and counters with either a pulling guard (LG T-Bob Hebert, RG Will Blackwell) or massive sophomore FB J.C. Copeland (6-1, 280) leading the way. Crimson Tide NG Josh Chapman is doing a great job of occupying blocks in the middle to help free up backside linebacker to flow to the play, but the key for Hightower, Johnson and the rest of the Tide's linebackers is to beat the lead blockers to the point of attack by making quick reads and attacking the gap. They won't win many phone-booth battles versus Copeland or the 300-plus pound guards, but they're better athletes and the quicker the linebackers get into position, the better their chances are of slipping the block or blowing the play up before it develops. That's important against LSU's powerful trio of downhill runners – -- Spencer Ware, Michael Ford, Kenny Hilliard – -- who won't make many defenders miss, but will rotate to stay fresh and are dangerous with a head of steam.

On obvious passing downs, Lee has to be on the lookout for a formation with hybrid OLB/DE Courtney Upshaw to the right of sub-package NG Nick Gentry and Hightower rotated down to the left of Gentry. This is the only time LSU's offensive line will be overmatched in protection. In second-and-long situations Lee can check to a run play to exploit Alabama's lack of size in this formation. The rest of the time he will need to address his protection to make sure backs and/or tight ends are helping out, and also make sure his receivers are running quicker-developing routes.

• It will be interesting to see if LSU utilizes backup QB Jordan Jefferson differently than in recent weeks. In the three games since his 2011 debut against Kentucky, the Tigers have called upon Jefferson in conservative situations and, for the most part, allowed Jefferson to guide the offense for an entire series, not just in short-yardage or red-zone packages. Jefferson has thrown no more than four passes in a single game, though, and has always entered the game with LSU holding a lead. Additionally, the Tigers' worst field position when inserting Jefferson has been its own 40-yard line. Jefferson brings more mobility than Lee and LSU has had success rolling him outside the pocket, where he presents a run-pass option, but there's little reason to believe the zone read and/or speed option will be effective versus the Crimson Tide's swarming run defense. And while Jefferson has a stronger arm and can buy time in the pocket with his feet, he is far more erratic than Lee in terms of both accuracy and decision-making. The Tigers need to think long and hard before letting Jefferson go to the air versus a complex Alabama defense that routinely baits opposing quarterbacks into mistakes.

Key individual matchup

LSU WR Rueben Randle vs.
Alabama CB Dre Kirkpatrick

Randle (6-foot-4, 208 pounds) is the most dangerous receiver in this game, and he has developed a terrific rapport with QB Jarrett Lee, while Kirkpatrick is a consistent cover corner who has made huge strides since last season. Randle has proven capable of beating man coverage (press or off-man), and while Kirkpatrick has the size and toughness to jam Randle at the line Alabama prefers to shadow receivers and focus on reading routes and/or the quarterback's eyes.

Kirkpatrick lacks ideal change-of-direction skills, but Randle is not the type of sudden receiver who will exploit that weakness. However, despite the fact that Kirkpatrick has improved his focus and is doing a better job finding the ball in the air, he still suffers occasional mental lapses and struggles to locate the ball with his back to the line of scrimmage. Look for LSU to test those weaknesses by turning Randle loose on vertical routes, many featuring double-cut moves. If Randle can come up with a big play or two early in this game it could force the Crimson Tide to be a bit more conservative with his safeties, which in turn could open up some room in the box for the Tigers' running game. But if Kirkpatrick is up to the challenge and locks Randle down without much safety help, it will create all sorts of problems for LSU's offense, particularly in terms of run blocking and blitz pickup.
Alabama offense vs. LSU defense
• The LSU defense comes into this game boasting the nation's best trio of cornerbacks in Morris Claiborne, Tyrann Mathieu and Tharold Simon. Claiborne has emerged as the most complete man-to-man cover corner in college football, with his elite combination of size, agility, fluid hips and top-end speed. He also shows the ability to locate and track the ball thrown over his shoulder. Mathieu is not as big or fast, but he has quick feet and he's powerful for his size. He might also be the most instinctive defender in the country and is capable of generating a big play (interception, stripped ball, etc.) at any moment. When the Tigers move to nickel and dime personnel, Simon steps in on the perimeter and Mathieu moves inside to the slot, where he can help support the run and occasionally fire off the edge as a pass rusher. Fourth corner Ron Brooks also proved capable of holding up on an island, so Alabama's receivers will face a tough test.

• Alabama WR Marquis Maze is having a terrific senior season, showing quickness off the line, running precise routes and making tough catches in traffic. Maze is also getting more opportunities in space as a receiver, runner, Wildcat trigger man and return man. However, the Tide does not have a true No. 1 target like the one Julio Jones presented last season, and while LSU will move Claiborne around at times to match up with Maze it won't be required to do so, because Mathieu and Simon can hold up one-on-one against Maze. Darius Hanks starts opposite Maze and runs good routes, but Hanks has limited big-play potential. Sophomore WR Kenny Bell could be an X-factor, though, because he is the only Crimson Tide receiver with the size-speed combo to get over the top of man-to-man coverage and make LSU pay for its aggressive approach. However, the streaky accuracy of Alabama QB AJ McCarron could hamper the efforts of his receivers to make big plays. McCarron's overall decision making has been above-average and his field vision is adequate, but his throws are often off-target. McCarron flashes the ability to fit the ball into tight windows or drop it between coverages, but he frequently misses within the strike zone and forces his receivers to adjust. That effectively takes away run-after-catch opportunities.

• Assuming LSU's cornerbacks hold up in man-coverage, defensive coordinator John Chavis will spend a good portion of the game with eight or nine defenders in the box. Alabama RB Trent Richardson is the most talented back in the nation, but there's only so much even he can do versus eight- and nine-man fronts. Nearly all of his 17 carries last week against Tennessee came against such fronts, and while the offensive line executed assignments and Richardson showed his usual blend of elite vision, patience, lateral agility, power and burst, the result was an average of 4.5 yards per carry and a long run of 16 yards. That was against a Volunteers run defense that ranked 69th nationally. The Tigers ranks third nationally versus the run, has twice as much talent and depth along its defensive front, and is stronger across the board at linebacker and safety. Crimson Tide offensive coordinator Jim McElwain will feed Richardson his usual 15-plus carries on traditional runs, but also expect him to unveil some creative new ways to get the ball into Richardson's hands, both in the running game and the passing game. Richardson has experience taking direct snaps in the Wildcat formation and he's becoming increasingly involved as a pass catcher, mostly out of the backfield but occasionally from the slot and split out wide. The bottom line is that Richardson is by far Alabama's most dangerous offensive weapon and no amount of touches will be too many, no matter what form they take.

Scouts' Edge

Alabama's staff is a stronger game-planning group, so it would stand to reason that it gains an advantage from an extra week of preparation. However, LSU's Les Miles and his coordinators (Chavis and offensive coordinator Greg Studrawa) have done an underrated job of preparing their team this season and LSU is a proven commodity in big games on the road. Also consider that since 1970 the road team in this rivalry is 27-13-1, and while the home team has won the last two meetings, at no point in the history of this matchup has the home team won three straight.

Both teams are loaded with talent, but we think LSU has an edge in three key areas: perimeter offense, perimeter defense, and quarterback. Randle is the only true vertical threat in this game and his presence should help open up room for the rest of the offense. The Crimson Tide's lack of a true game-breaker at wide receiver will allow Chavis to man-up with Claiborne and Mathieu on the outside and consistently load up the box with eight and nine defenders versus Richardson and their run game.

If Lee continues to limit his mistakes and manage the game at a high level -- specifically, getting his protections set and getting out of negative plays with good pre-snap reads -- the Tigers are strong enough in all other areas to top Alabama in its own backyard.


Prediction: Tigers 20, Crimson Tide 17

[wayne1218]

Alabama will blow out LSU

By Will Harris
ESPN Insider


LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama is favored by 4.5 points
TeamRankings win odds for LSU: 36 percent

LSU is an outstanding, well-coached team with a top-flight defense and a powerful running game. Unfortunately for the Tigers, this game doesn't really have much to do with them. Alabama is a championship team on a championship mission, and LSU is simply in the way.

We've been beating this drum all year, but Alabama's defense is absolutely not "one of" the best in the country. It is not simply the nation's best in 2011, but rather a once-in-a-generation defense. That's not hyperbole. It's also what we should expect given the Crimson Tide's perfect set of circumstances. The sport's top defensive coaching staff in terms of both scheme and technique is, in its fifth year, at the very pinnacle of its recruiting and player development machine.

The Alabama defense was a top-five unit last season with a lineup full of newbies. This year, with experienced, fully developed and uber-talented upperclassmen manning nearly every spot on the two-deep, the Tide stop unit is setting a new standard. When elite coaching combines with elite talent and maximum experience at an elite program with unlimited resources … well, that's exactly how once-in-a-generation defenses are made.

Add in the nation's best offensive line and backfield duo, and you have a championship-caliber team. The home-field advantage will also be unprecedented, as this will be the loudest and most intimidating crowd in Bryant-Denny Stadium history. LSU's defense is fantastic, but its reckless style relies on rattling the opposing offense, then feeding on the resulting turnovers and miscues -- mistakes that an experienced, disciplined and prepared Alabama team simply will not make at home.

It also must be mentioned that the Crimson Tide seem to be playing for a bigger purpose. It's difficult to judge the precise impact the tornado that devastated Tuscaloosa this April has had on this football team and its focus and preparation throughout the season, but it is undoubtedly significant.

LSU is a very fine football team, but nothing points to a failure this weekend for Nick Saban's program. In the most hyped game of the season, Alabama will leave no doubt.

The pick: Alabama 31, LSU 3

[wayne1218]

No way LSU rolls out of Tuscaloosa with a win

By Bruce Feldman

I've seen a lot of LSU this year. A ton actually. Seen them more than any of the other top 15 teams in the country. I spent a week with the West Virginia staff as they poured over Tigers film for hours upon hours, probing for any weaknesses they could unearth leading up to their matchup with LSU in late September. Then I had a chance to see that scary display of speed and aggressiveness up close from the sidelines when they beat the Mountaineers by 26. In a word, the LSU D is awesome. But having seen and said all that, I still will be very surprised if LSU can come into Tuscaloosa and beat the Crimson Tide. That's how nasty and tough I believe Nick Saban's team is.

I will concede LSU's defense has probably been even more impressive than 'Bama's higher ranked group, given that the Tigers have faced much better offenses than the Crimson Tide == short-circuiting the explosive Oregon attack, destroying Dan Mullen's MSU offense and holding the WVU pass game to only 21 points on the road were all eye-catching performances == but they haven't matched up against anyone as physical as 'Bama. The Tide's O-line is much better than anything else LSU has faced. And nobody has a powerhouse runner like Alabama's Trent Richardson. It's not like Penn State doesn't have a very good defense with a great D-line, and Richardson got 100 yards on them in Happy Valley. Florida had the nation's No. 5 run defense (allowing under 57 yards a game) before Richardson and 'Bama came to Gainesville in early October. Richardson had more than three times that many rushing yards by himself.

I don't expect Richardson to run wild on LSU the way he has against the Gators and Ole Miss and Arkansas, but he will wear down the Tigers defense, which isn't quite as big or as physical as Saban's.

LSU's offense has been a pleasant surprise. Jarrett Lee has a lower interception ratio than any of the top 40 QBs in the country. Jordan Jefferson, LSU's other quarterback, has been very sharp too. They also have a lot more options in their backfield. LSU has more big-time, ready-for-prime-time running backs than any team in America. But who is running on 'Bama, at least for more than a series or two?

Nobody.

As former NFL GM Phil Savage pointed out in my story about the Crimson Tide defense, the biggest difference with this team now is that Saban has so much confidence in his players, especially in the secondary where he can get a feel for what the opponent's game plan is, then make shrewd in-game adjustments and shut it down.

And don't think that the 'Bama D didn't hear LSU's DeAngelo Peterson say the 'Bama linebackers were "slow." OK, well technically, Courtney Upshaw, one of 'Bama's 270-pound 'backers, said Wednesday night he hadn't heard the tight end's comments, but when he was informed of them by the media, he didn't respond. He really didn't have a chance before an Alabama spokesman interjected. Well, Upshaw, Dont'a Hightower and the rest of the Tide linebackers will get their chance to respond Saturday.

Of course, we know LSU will come with a few curveballs. This is, after all, what Les Miles does in big games. Miles is a wiz at that stuff and at getting his team focused amid a lot of distractions. Nothing he does shocks me anymore, and I say that with a great amount of respect. But my hunch is 'Bama forces the Tigers into few more mistakes than vice versa and Richardson has a game similar to what he had in State College == a good, productive, workman-like game moving the chains while the aura of invincibility about Saban's latest defense grows.

Alabama 17, LSU 10.

[wayne1218]

LSU's offense will score enough to roll back Tide

By Brett McMurphy


Finally: Nov. 5 is almost here. Just a few more hours and the most anticipated football game since, oh, the beginning of time is upon us.

This is going to be a good one. The visiting team must make the trek into Alabama, looking to stay undefeated and keep alive its hopes of playing for the BCS title. The home team wants to make a national statement and also seeks revenge after losing their last meeting.

More Expert Picks
Bruce Feldman
The Crimson Tide will force LSU to make more mistakes. Read More>>
Related links
Expert Picks: Who else picks Alabama to win?
Man vs. Woman vs. Machine: Week 10
Pregame: No. 1 LSU at No. 2 Alabama
Daily Update: Breaking down the big game
History of AP No. 1 vs. No. 2 games
LSU: Postgame RapidReports | Blog
Alabama: Postgame RapidReports | Blog
More SEC coverage with Jerry Hinnen

But enough about Houston at UAB. Let's break down this week's other "Game of the Century." That would be No. 1 LSU at No. 2 Alabama on CBS! Did I mention it's on CBS?

There have been numerous games of the century. LSU-Alabama is the biggest since the first Game of the Century more than 20,000 years ago when the University of Cavemen visited Neanderthal State. This one is for all the wooly mammoths.

Before I make my pick, here are a couple of prerequisite jokes about each school. Use at your own risk.

How many Alabama fans does it take to eat a possum? Three. One to eat it, two to watch out for the cars.

Hear about the LSU coyote? He gnawed off three of his legs and still couldn't get out of the trap.

Why do they no longer serve ice at Alabama football games? The senior who knew the recipe graduated.

How many LSU freshmen does it take to change a light bulb? None. That's a sophomore course at LSU.

Yeah, I realize those are pretty brutal -- almost as painful as having to watch last week's Illinois-Penn State game.

As far as LSU and Alabama goes, my CBSSports.com colleague Bruce Feldman, who is also an accomplished author, musician, scientist and ambassador of goodwill when he's not secretly on suspension, is picking Alabama. That's the easy pick, Bruce. Just take the home team.

What about LSU? The Tigers are known for their defense, but they have scored at least 40 points in five games. Last time that happened, they won the 2007 BCS title. Also, they have outgained Alabama in four of their past five meetings and the grass-eating, high-hat-wearing Les Miles is 4-2 against the Crimson Tide.

I was torn on my pick, but fortunately I visited the SEC's Digital Network website, and it had already posted Saturday's game story -- with quotes -- next to the breaking news story announcing Missouri to the SEC. My pick is LSU 27-24

[wayne1218]

LSU (8-0) at Alabama (8-0), 8 p.m., CBS
THE BUZZ: OK, we're pretty sure everyone knows this is huge. Interestingly, LSU is just the second top-ranked team to visit Tuscaloosa; the first was Oklahoma in 2003. Then again, Alabama used to play a lot of its "big" games in Birmingham.
THE LINE: Alabama by 5 THE PICK: Alabama 20-17