The Bum's NFL Week # 10 Best Bets 11/06-11/07 !

[StarDust Bum]

Week 9 Preview: Giants at Patriots

NEW YORK GIANTS (5-2)

at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -8, Total: 52.5

The Giants and Patriots meet Sunday for the first time since New York’s Super Bowl XLII upset over 18-0 New England following the 2007 season.

Four years ago, the Giants front four smothered Tom Brady and the Patriots en route to a championship. New York still has one of the best pass rushes in the NFL (league-high 26 sacks), especially now that Jason Pierre-Paul (8.5 sacks) has emerged as an All- Pro-caliber performer. Brady should be better prepared this time around though, and a thin Giants secondary will have difficulty matching up with WR Wes Welker and TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. New England has won 20 straight home games in the regular season, going 12-7-1 ATS (63%) in those contests. The pick here is NEW ENGLAND to win and cover.

This pair of highly-rated FoxSheets trends also support the Patriots:

Bill Belichick is 40-18 ATS (69.0%, +20.2 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.5, OPPONENT 17.2 - (Rating = 3*).

N.Y. GIANTS are 1-9 ATS (10.0%, -8.9 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was N.Y. GIANTS 25.5, OPPONENT 31.6 - (Rating = 2*).

Offensively, the Giants have limited turnovers this year and QB Eli Manning should be able capitalize against a weak Patriots pass defense. Manning is third in the NFL in QB rating (102.1) and he averaged 346 passing YPG in October. His team has new-found depth at receiver with Victor Cruz emerging with 480 receiving yards and four scores in his past five games. They’ll need that depth considering top WR Hakeem Nicks is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Despite the high level that Manning and the passing offense have been performing at, the Giants rushing attack has been dreadful. They rank third-to-last in the NFL with 85.6 rushing YPG, having yet to reach 125 yards in any game this year. Ahmad Bradshaw has 440 rushing yards and 5 TD, but Brandon Jacobs has been slowed by a knee injury and has contributed very little this year at 3.0 yards per carry.

Despite the QB-pressuring prowess New York’s D-Line brings to the table, the run-stop unit ranks 28th in the NFL with 130 rushing YPG allowed. The passing defense ranks 13th (225 YPG), but the Giants have faced just one opponent all year ranked among the league’s top-12 passing offenses (Philadelphia, 9th). The Patriots, who are throwing for 325 YPG, the second-highest mark in football, will certainly test the G-Men.

New England’s offense wasn’t its usual, unstoppable self in last week’s loss at Pittsburgh. The offensive line failed to prevent the Steelers from pressuring Brady, who failed to reach 200 passing yards for the first time this season. Brady was sacked five times in the Super Bowl loss to New York, completing 29-of-48 passes for 266 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. With the Giants poor rushing defense, New England needs to run the football more, especially from top RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis who tried to play through his toe injury last week, but had just five carries for nine yards. Green-Ellis has 400 yards and 5 TD for the season. If Green-Ellis is still limited, 35-year-old Kevin Faulk, who rushed for 32 yards on six carries in his season debut last week, could be the featured back again. RBs Danny Woodhead and Stevan Ridley did not carry the football last week, partly because New England only had the ball for 20:38.

The biggest problem for New England continues to be its league-worst pass defense allowing 323 YPG this season. After cutting CB Leigh Bodden, one the better defensive backs, the Patriots will have even more problems stopping the red-hot Manning. Star LB Jerod Mayo returned to action last week after missing two games with a knee injury, but he didn’t play his usual heavy workload. He hopes to start this week. New England has won four straight regular-season meetings with New York, but three of those victories came by three points or less.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Update For Sunday's Games

There has been little line movement on the Ravens and Steelers battle.
Four key divisional matchups highlight the Week 9 slate of the NFL, but none are bigger than the Sunday Night Football clash of AFC North titans when the Baltimore Ravens visit the Pittsburgh Steelers in a rematch of the season opener. The Ravens (5-2) won that game 35-7 at home and have struggled lately while the Steelers (6-2) have been coming on strong and can take control of the division with a victory at Heinz Field.

Pittsburgh lost the first meeting at home to Baltimore last year sans quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who had to sit out due to a four-game suspension for breaking the league’s personal conduct policy in the offseason. However, the Steelers seized the division by beating the Ravens on the road in the second meeting, which gave them home-field advantage when they met for a third time in the playoffs.

Roethlisberger has come up huge in Pittsburgh’s last two games, throwing for more than 360 yards in wins over the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots. The Steelers are No. 4 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll and have a chance to bump Baltimore from the No. 3 spot.

The Ravens won the first meeting this year easily as 1-point home favorites and find themselves as 3-point road underdogs according to the Don Best odds screen this time around after failing to cover the spread in their last two games. There has been little line movement so far, and the teams have split the past six meetings, including last year’s postseason game.

Another important divisional matchup takes place in the AFC East, where the Buffalo Bills (5-2) host the New York Jets (4-3). The Bills are tied with the New England Patriots atop the division and can move two games up on the Jets with a victory on Sunday. The Patriots suffered a 25-17 setback at Pittsburgh last week and lost at Buffalo in Week 4.

The Bills opened as 1 ½-point favorites and have been bet up as high as -2 ½ at some sportsbooks while the total has been bet down from the opener of 45 to 44. New York is coming off a bye after beating San Diego and Miami at home, which followed a three-game losing streak. The Jets have won the last three meetings with Buffalo both straight-up and against the spread and are tied for No. 6 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, three spots ahead of the Bills.

In the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints (5-3) will try to get back on track at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3). The Saints fell two spots to No. 5 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll following a disappointing 31-21 road loss to the St. Louis Rams as double-digit favorites. Meanwhile, the Bucs had their bye last week after losing 24-18 in London to the Chicago Bears. New Orleans opened as 7 ½-point favorites and are up to -9 at some sportsbooks.

Finally, Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos (2-5) head to Oakland for an AFC West battle with the Raiders (4-3) who are in a three-way tie with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers atop the division. Tebow played terrible last week in a 45-10 home loss to the Detroit Lions and returns to the site of his first career NFL start. The Broncos lost that game 39-23 and have moved from 7-point underdogs to +9 as bettors have jumped off the Tebow bandwagon.

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Update For Monday Night's Bears At Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles opened at -7 and that number has been raised.
The Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles have very little wiggle room in their battle for a playoff spot down the stretch, and both need this win Monday night in Philadelphia to keep pace in the NFC.

After opening as a 7-point favorite at home, the Philadelphia Eagles were eventually bet all the way up to about a 9-point favorite at many books. The line movement seems to have enticed Chicago backers to take the points. While some books are still posting a 9-point spread with additional chalk on the Bears, most books have settled on Philadelphia as a 7 ½ or 8-point favorite.

Two of the major pieces of Philadelphia’s blowout 34-7 win over Dallas, LeSean McCoy and Brent Celek, both missed practice Thursday. Both are still probable to play Sunday; McCoy left practice with a stomach flu and Celek was out with a hip contusion. While McCoy should be fully recovered by Sunday, Celek’s injury is worth keeping in mind. He’ll certainly play through the pain, but a painful hip contusion could limit his mobility. Celek led the team in receptions (seven) and receiving yards (94) last week.

Chicago still hasn’t decided whether or not they will start rookie offensive tackle Gabe Carimi who has been out since Week 2 with a knee injury, but they are ready to plug Earl Bennett right back in at wide receiver. Bennett had also been out since Week 2 (chest injury), and his return should give the Bears’ offense a big boost. Not only is he Chicago’s most experienced wideout, but he also has a rapport with Jay Cutler and is a trusted target on third down. Chicago is currently 29th in the league on third down, converting just 29.9 percent of the time.

Andy Reid improved to 13-0 coming off of a bye week in last week’s impressive win, but the question that will be answered this week is whether or not that was just one great game plan or a sign of things to come moving forward. Philadelphia’s only other wins of the season came in their season opener against St. Louis and in an ugly turnover-laden game against Washington. McCoy rushed for 185 yards and two touchdowns last week; can he have another big day against a Chicago defense that prides itself on stopping the run (ranked 12th with 108.7 rushing yards against per game)?

Weather reports still indicate clear skies on Monday, with a temperature of 62 during the day cooling down to 49 come game time at 8:30 p.m. (ET).

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Week 9 NFL Trends & Angles

We have now reached Week 9 of the NFL season, and this week features one of the wackiest lines we have seen all season.
The whole world watched the Kansas City Chiefs upset the San Diego Chargers Monday night (that was actually a case of San Diego fumbling the game away, but we digress), putting the Chiefs in a first place tie in the AFC West. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are one of two winless teams in the NFL at 0-7 after blowing a second half lead to the New York Giants.
Now, Kansas City is home vs. Miami this week. The Chiefs are riding a four-game winning streak since an 0-3 start, they beat up on bad teams at home all year last season en route to winning the division, and their only home loss this season came opening week vs. what has turned out to be a good Buffalo team.
And the current line in this contest is Kansas City -4! What the…? Are the oddsmakers giving bettors an early Christmas gift or are they laying a bear-sized trap?
Well…

Play on any single-digit road underdog following a road loss (122-79-5, 60.7% ATS since 2002): This angle makes sense from a contrarian viewpoint because it combines two situations that bettors like to avoid, with one being betting on losing teams and another being teams on road trips. The fact that the team is now a dog usually means that it is inferior, so books are able to pad these lines a bit, and let's face it, finding something that is over 60 percent in 201 decisions in almost 10 years is remarkable. This angle has one play this week, and if you do not know who it is, you are not paying attention. (Miami +4)

Play against any favorite that just defeated a good team and is now facing a bad team (37-24-1, 60.7% ATS since 2002): For the purposes of our Trends & Angles, a good team is defined as a team that has won at least 12 of its previous 18 games while a bad team is defined as a team that has won no more than six of its previous 18 games. This angle is like the very definition of the Letdown Theory, as teams that just put a lot of energy into beating good teams often take a breather when they are favored over a bad team the following week. This angle has turned up three times this season and it is 3-0 ATS. There is one qualifier this week, and surprise, it is Miami +4 at Kansas City.

Play on any road underdog coming off of six or more consecutive straight up losses (78-52-1, 60.0% ATS since 1985): We went all the way back to 1985 to make this sample size as meaningful as possible, and the results are quite good. These are teams that most squares would never bet their hard earned money on but that sharps love, as they are almost always getting added line value. Do we really need to tell you who the only qualifier is this week? (Miami +4)

Play on any team that lost its last game by 20 or more points at home (101-75-2, 57.4% ATS since 2002): Professional teams do not like to get embarrassed, especially at home, and they usually come back strong in their next game. This angle won again in Week 8 with Tennessee covering vs. the Colts after getting blown out at home by Houston the prior week. There are three qualifying plays this week (and no, none of them involve Miami), but unfortunately, two of them are against each other with Denver facing Oakland. That still leaves one play though, the Seattle Seahawks +11½.

Play on any underdog that lost its last game by 28 or more points (77-51-2, 60.2% ATS since 2002): This angle combines the concepts of teams not liking to get embarrassed and bettors not wanting to bet on those teams immediately after those said embarrassments. There is one qualifying play for Week 9, the Denver Broncos +9.

Play on any road favorite coming off of a bye week (35-13-2, 72.9% ATS since 2002): You usually have to be a very good team to be a road favorite, and having an added week of preparation time has made the road chalk great investments over the years. This angle is only 2-2 in 2011, but it gets two chances to bounce back this week with Atlanta -7 at Indianapolis and Green Bay -5½ at San Diego.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (75-47-2, 61.5% ATS since 2008): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, Bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on the results of the last three years, they may have over-adjusted the lines especially in this specific case of conference games where the visiting teams are fairly familiar with their next opponents. There are four big qualifiers for this angle this week: Cincinnati +3, Cleveland +10½, Chicago +9 (Monday) and our Trends & Angles Play of the Week, Miami +4

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Sunday, November 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami +4 500
Kansas City - ( Under 40.5 500 TOTAL OF THE DAY )

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +9 500
New Orleans - Under 50.5 500

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis +6.5 500
Indianapolis - Under 45 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +10.5 500
Houston - Over 41 500

N.Y. Jets - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo -2.5 500
Buffalo - Under 45 500

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET San Francisco -4 500
Washington - Under 37.5 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Seattle +11 500
Dallas - Over 45 500

Cincinnati - 4:05 PM ET Cincinnati +1.5 500
Tennessee - Over 41.5 500

Denver - 4:05 PM ET Oakland -7 500
Oakland - Under 42.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:15 PM ET N.Y. Giants +9 500
New England - Under 51 500

St. Louis - 4:15 PM ET ( Arizona -2.5 500 POD )
Arizona - Under 41.5 500

Green Bay - 4:15 PM ET Green Bay -5.5 500
San Diego - Under 50.5 500

Baltimore - 8:20 PM ET Pittsburgh -3 500
Pittsburgh - Over 41.5 500

[Kaptain]

gl today Bumster....give em hell Podna.....Love the Cinn Play

[StarDust Bum]

Yep love that cincy play also and the Under in the KC game

[Sirporkie]

Gl

[StarDust Bum]

Update For Monday Night's Bears At Eagles

The Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles have very little wiggle room in their battle for a playoff spot down the stretch, and both need this win Monday night in Philadelphia to keep pace in the NFC.

After opening as a 7-point favorite at home, the Philadelphia Eagles were eventually bet all the way up to about a 9-point favorite at many books. The line movement seems to have enticed Chicago backers to take the points. While some books are still posting a 9-point spread with additional chalk on the Bears, most books have settled on Philadelphia as a 7 ½ or 8-point favorite.

Two of the major pieces of Philadelphia’s blowout 34-7 win over Dallas, LeSean McCoy and Brent Celek, both missed practice Thursday. Both are still probable to play Sunday; McCoy left practice with a stomach flu and Celek was out with a hip contusion. While McCoy should be fully recovered by Sunday, Celek’s injury is worth keeping in mind. He’ll certainly play through the pain, but a painful hip contusion could limit his mobility. Celek led the team in receptions (seven) and receiving yards (94) last week.

Chicago still hasn’t decided whether or not rookie offensive tackle Gabe Carimi, out since Week 2 with a knee injury, will start, but the Bears are ready to plug Earl Bennett right back in at wide receiver. Bennett had also been out since Week 2 (chest injury), and his return should give the Bears’ offense a big boost. Not only is he Chicago’s most experienced wideout, but he also has a rapport with Jay Cutler and is a trusted target on third down. Chicago is currently 29th in the league on third down, converting just 29.9 percent of the time.

Andy Reid improved to 13-0 coming off of a bye week in last week’s impressive win, but the question that will be answered this week is whether or not that was just one great game plan or a sign of things to come moving forward. Philadelphia’s only other wins of the season came in the season opener against St. Louis and in an ugly turnover-laden game against Washington. McCoy rushed for 185 yards and two touchdowns last week; can he have another big day against a Chicago defense that prides itself on stopping the run (ranked 12th with 108.7 rushing yards against per game)?

Weather reports still indicate clear skies on Monday, with a temperature of 62 during the day cooling down to 49 come game time at 8:30 p.m. (ET).

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MNF - Bears at Eagles

November 6, 2011


The Week 9 card in the NFL wraps up at Lincoln Financial Field as the Eagles look to reach the .500 mark against the Bears. Philadelphia (3-4) actually enters this game with a record worse than Chicago (4-3), but Andy Reid's club is a healthy touchdown favorite. The Eagles still have work to do in the NFC East, but the groundwork for a comeback has already been laid down.

Philadelphia destroyed Dallas in a must-win spot last Sunday night at the Linc, 34-7 as three-point favorites. The Eagles cruised to a 24-0 halftime advantage, thanks to a pair of Michael Vick touchdown passes. The domination was felt in plenty of statistical categories, including time of possession (42 minutes for the Eagles), first downs (31-12 in favor of Philadelphia), and yardage (495-267). Probably the biggest victory for the Eagles was another division win, improving their record to 2-1 inside the NFC East.

The Bears are quietly hanging in the NFC Wild Card race after knocking off the Buccaneers in London two weeks ago, 24-18. Matt Forte continues to be one of the top offensive forces in the league after rushing for 145 yards and a touchdown, while the Bears' defense intercepted Josh Freeman four times. Chicago has helped out its cause for tiebreakers inside the Wild Card chase with victories over Tampa Bay and Atlanta, which will be important when late December rolls around.

The weapons are well-known in the Philadelphia arsenal offensively, but its defense has stepped up over the last two weeks. The Eagles allowed nearly 30 ppg during their four-game losing streak, but have given up just 20 points total in wins over the Redskins and Cowboys. The test will come against a Bears' team that doesn't dominate from a yardage perspective, ranking in the middle of the league at 337.4 yards/game.

Lovie Smith's club is responsible for plenty of big plays from all three phases, which makes the yardage ranking misleading. The Bears' defense and special teams has combined for four touchdowns, including a pair of returns for scores from Devin Hester. Chicago has struck six times on plays of 40 or more yards through the first seven games, while Philadelphia's big-time offense has compiled seven such plays of more than 40 yards.

The Bears knocked off the Eagles last November at Soldier Field, 31-26 as three-point home 'dogs. This game had plenty of twists and turns, as the Eagles had an opportunity to take the lead at halftime, but a Vick interception in the red zone led to a Chicago touchdown in the final two minutes. The Bears led 21-13 at the half, then put the game away with a Jay Cutler touchdown pass two minutes into the third quarter. Philadelphia scored late to make the final score look respectable, but that victory by the Bears was their fourth in a row en route to a division title.

Chicago is making its first trip to the City of Brotherly Love since 2007, when the Bears shocked the Eagles, 19-16 as 5 ½-point underdogs. The two teams exchanged a handful of field goals through the first three quarters, but Brian Griese's late touchdown to Muhsin Muhammad gave Chicago its first win in the series since 1995.

The Eagles own a 3-4 ATS record this season as the formula is simple: when Philadelphia wins, it covers the spread. However, the Eagles have struggled in the role as a substantial favorite this season as they have failed to cover in home losses to the Giants and 49ers when laying at least nine points. Under Reid, the Eagles are 1-5 ATS the last six times as a favorite of at least 6 ½ points, dating back to the end of the 2009 season.

The Bears compiled a 4-1 ATS mark as a road underdog last season, but haven't cashed in that role in 2011 with losses at New Orleans and Detroit. Chicago has responded well off a road win recently with a 5-2 ATS ledger since September of 2009. The number to pay attention to with the Bears comes from the totals department, as Chicago is 10-5 to the 'over' the last 15 contests.

Philadelphia is listed as a 7 ½-point favorite, while the number is sitting at eight at several sportsbooks. The total is steady at 47, as the temperatures will not be a factor in the mid-50's. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN and kicks off at 8:30 PM EST.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 9 Preview: Bears at Eagles

CHICAGO BEARS (4-3)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-4)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -8, Total: 47

The Eagles are flying high after crushing rival Dallas 34-7 on Sunday night, but they could certainly be grounded on Monday night by a well-rested Chicago team.

Philadelphia seems to have things figured out after a slow start to the year. Last week, the Eagles blew out a Cowboys team that defended them similarly to how the Bears did in Chicago last November, taking away the deep ball and forcing Philly to sustain drives against them. The Eagles didn’t turn it over once last week, and they’re 3-0 SU and ATS when turning it over two or fewer times this season. And although Chicago picked off four passes in its last game against Tampa Bay, the team only forced five turnovers in its previous five games. Expect a confident PHILADELPHIA team to win and cover in front of a raucous crowd on Monday night.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Eagles:

Play On - Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - off a win against a division rival, when playing on Monday night. (51-19 since 1983.) (72.9%, +30.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Last November the Bears halted Philly’s Michael Vick-fueled momentum with a 31-26 home win, using a ball-control offense and taking advantage of sloppy field conditions that slowed Vick and the speedy Eagles. QB Jay Cutler threw four touchdown passes in that game, but he has only 4 TD passes in his past four games this season. Cutler’s passer rating on the road (76.0, 6.3 YPA) is much lower than his efficiency at home (91.9, 8.4 YPA). One player that has been tremendous no matter where the Bears have played is RB Matt Forte. He already has 1,091 yards from scrimmage (156 YPG), and has rushed for 553 yards on 6.2 YPC over the past four weeks.

The Bears have allowed more than 200 passing yards in all seven games this season, surrendering 272 passing YPG, which ranks 28th in the league. But the run-stop unit has been downright nasty the past two weeks, holding an Adrian Peterson-led Minnesota team to 53 yards, then limiting Tampa Bay to 30 yards on 11 carries in the last game.

Although Michael Vick gets most of the publicity, the Eagles best offensive player has been LeSean McCoy, who leads the NFL with 108 rushing YPG and ranks third in the league with 5.6 yards per carry. McCoy has eight carries of 20+ yards and has 10 total touchdowns, scoring in all seven games this year. Vick, who leads the NFL with 8.1 YPC, has thrown eight interceptions already this year, after tossing just 6 INT in 12 games last season. Vick has lost all four career starts versus Chicago, but he played pretty well against the Bears last year with 333 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT and 44 rushing yards. However, the Eagles came away with just 16 points from their five red-zone trips against Chicago. They’ve been shaky in the red zone again this year, with just 4.31 points per drive on 35 red-zone drives.

Philly’s front seven has played much better in back-to-back wins, sacking Tony Romo four times last week. And considering Cutler was sacked more than any QB in the league last year (52) and has already hit the turf 21 time in seven games in 2011, look for the Eagles to employ a heavy dose of blitzing on Monday night. The Eagles defense has held strong in the past three weeks, limiting opponents to a mere 295 total YPG.

[StarDust Bum]

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-9)

Why Bears cover: Giving nine points to team that reached last year’s NFC title game seems a stretch, to be sure. Perhaps overlooked is that these two teams have met each of last four years, and Bears have gone 3-1 SU and ATS, all as a ‘dog. Philly in ATS ruts of 3-7 overall, 4-9 vs. winning teams and 1-5 at home (all as chalk).

Why Eagles cover: Michael Vick-led offense tears it up with league-best 449 ypg – 112 more than Bears’ average – and No. 1 rushing attack at whopping 179.9 ypg, which can chew up some serious clock and limit Bears opportunities. That’s what happened vs. Dallas last week in Philly’s 34-7 rout, with Eagles keeping ball 42 minutes. Andy Reid’s troops have cashed four straight on Monday night.

Total (47): Under 5-1 Eagles’ last six at home and 20-8 Bears’ last 28 on highway.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/06/11 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail

Totals 16-*10-*0 61.54% +2500



Monday, November 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:30 PM ET Philadelphia -9 500

Philadelphia - Under 47 500