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**Udog** · 10-31-2011, 12:16 AM

Monday’s betting tips: Can Chargers snap ATS skid?

Who’s hot

NFL: Kansas City is riding a 4-0 stretch against the spread.

NHL: San Jose has won five straight on its current road trip.

NHL: Chicago is 6-2 in its last eight home games.

Who’s not

NFL: San Diego is 2-5-1 against the spread in its last eight games overall and is 4-9-1 in its last 14 games at Arrowhead.

NHL: The under is 0-4-1 in New York’s last five home games.

NHL: The Predators are 1-4 in their last five games in Chicago.

Key stat

438.4 – The Toledo Rockets are averaging 438.4 passing yards and 36.5 points per game with their dual-quarterback system, trailing only Northern Illinois in the MAC. The Rockets face off against the Huskies Tuesday night.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Mike Tolbert, San Diego Chargers – Chargers running back and short-yardage specialist Mike Tolbert is expected to sit out Monday’s game at Kansas City. Tolbert suffered hamstring and hand injuries in last week's road loss to the New York Jets. Tolbert has rushed for 163 yards and three touchdowns and caught 28 balls for 231 yards and three TDs this season. The Chargers are 3-point favorites at Arrowhead.

Game of the day

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+3, 44.5)

Notable quotable

“We keep talking about all this stuff and changing rules and head shots and all that kind of stuff. That’s not the stuff that’s hurting our game. It’s the lack of respect on the ice. I’m tired of watching Jordin Tootoo out there, a guy who runs around and hits and does everything else but the first little slash, he’s laying on the ice and he’s out the next shift. It’s embarrassing and I’m sick of it. If they want to change the game and they want things to be better and they want more respect on the ice, get guys like that off the ice then. I’m sick of it.” – Anaheim Ducks forward Ryan Getzlaf on Nashville Predators agitator Jordin Tootoo, who drew a couple of penalties when Nashville dropped Anaheim 3-0 Saturday. Nashville visits Chicago Monday night.

Notes and tips

The San Diego Charges may lead the AFC West with a 4-2 straight up record, but they’re just 2-4 against the spread overall and only 1-3-1 against the number in their last five road games. As of Sunday evening, about 62 percent of *********** Consensus bettors were supporting the Chargers as 3-point favorites at Kansas City even though the Chiefs have covered in four straight games overall.

**Udog** · 10-31-2011, 12:22 AM

NHL

Monday, October 31

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Pucking the trends: This week's best NHL bets
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Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

HOT TEAM: San Jose Sharks

The Sharks usually wait until the postseason to disappoint their fans, but this year, with perhaps as much talent as any team in the Western Conference, they stumbled right out of the box.

San Jose dropped three games in a four-day span earlier this month, and found itself surprisingly in last place on Oct. 17.

But a road trip to the East Coast has been an effective elixir, as the Sharks have rolled up five straight wins headed into Monday’s tilt versus the Rangers in New York.

San Jose offense's has turned the corner on this trip, and after Saturday's 3-2 win over the Islanders in New York, Joe Pavelski had seven goals, Joe Thornton had eight points, and the Sharks were 6-3.

Perhaps the biggest key, moving forward for bettors, is the Sharks’ conditioning. In this win streak, San Jose has shown no fatigue, sweeping two sets of Friday-Saturday, back-to-back games. Keep that in mind.

COLD TEAM: Boston Bruins

No surprise here, as the Stanley Cup hangover has hit Beantown. And perhaps this one may last even longer than most, when you consider that the Bruins played three seven-game series in the postseason, and then partied for two months leading into training camp.

Headed into Tuesday’s tilt versus Ottawa, the Bruins had lost three in a row and four of the last five. They were swept by the rival Canadiens in a three-day span, ending Saturday, and managed just three goals in those two games.

Surprisingly, despite having one of the deepest goaltending situations in the league, Boston isn't exactly dominating in the nets. Tuukka Rask took the loss on Saturday and Tim Thomas took the loss on Thursday.

OVER PLAY: Philadelphia Flyers

When they acquired goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov in the summer, it seemed -- once and for all -- that the Flyers’ biggest problem had been solved. They finally had an anchor in net, and a superstar to play behind that deep, dominating set of defensemen.

Well, that lockdown, stifling system they had planned on still may happen. But for now, Bryzgalov is inconsistent, captain Chris Pronger is out with an eye injury and pucks are soaring into the net during Philadelphia’s games.

Saturday’s 5-1 win over Carolina was Philadelphia’s seventh consecutive over, and eighth in the last nine games. In many instances, the total wasn’t even close. On Thursday, versus Winnipeg, there were 17 goals scored, eight by the Flyers.

Offensively, Philadelphia’s doing their part as well. Jaromir Jagr, the summer’s other big addition, had five goals and Claude Giroux had 15 points heading into Wednesday’s game at Buffalo.

UNDER PLAY: Dallas Stars

Count the Stars among the surprise teams in the Western Conference. Without Brad Richards, and despite the bitter taste in the franchise's mouth for missing the playoffs at the final horn last season, Dallas has rebounded nicely.

And the Stars have done it with defense.

In their last six games, Dallas has gone 4-1-1 under, and it allowed two goals or less in five of those games. They ended Saturday’s action in first place in the Pacific Division.

Goaltender Kari Lehtonen has been tremendous. He stopped 31 shots in a 3-1 win over New Jersey on Saturday, and is now 8-1 with a 1.75 goals-against average. Sounds like the right recipe for unders.

SURVEYING THE SCHEDULE:

** Despite a loss to Toronto on Saturday, the Penguins are still cruising right along without Sidney Crosby, and now they have some time to catch their breath. While they have to make another West Coast trip in November, the fact of the matter is that Sunday began a stretch in which Pittsburgh will play just four games in 16 days. Expect some fresh legs on the Penguins bench, when they take on the Sharks in San Jose on Thursday.

** Give credit to the Jets for hanging in there on the road. Winnipeg is in the midst of a seven-game trip away from home, which continues Monday at Florida. Through Saturday, they were 1-1 and had recovered from a brutal start overall by going 2-2 in four games, three of which came against playoff teams from last season. The Jets won’t return home until Nov. 10, when they host the Panthers.

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NHL

Monday, October 31

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Ice picks: Monday's best NHL bets
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San Jose Sharks at New York Rangers (+120, 5)

Finally getting back to Madison Square Garden was supposed to help the Rangers get their game together but so far it looks as though the team is regressing on home ice.

New York has dropped its first two games on home ice and it’s getting ugly enough that fans are already calling for Sean Avery, who was demoted prior to Hartford ahead of the season opener. The Rangers coughed up a 4-1 lead in the third period against the Senators on Saturday and ended up losing 5-4 in a shootout.

“It’s like we did a complete 180 after we got the 4-1 lead,” defenseman Dan Girardi. “We had done a lot well until then, we’d gotten the puck in deep and played in their end, but for whatever reason we stopped making simple plays and doing the things that got us the lead.”

That’s the problem with this team – it can’t hold any momentum. The Rangers can put three or four solid shifts together, but then get pinned in their own end for minutes at a time. This could be an ongoing concern at least until Marc Staal is back from his concussion.

Meanwhile, the Sharks have won five straight on their road trip that concludes Monday.

Pick: Sharks

Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks (-180, 5)

The Anaheim Ducks wanted to mix it up with the Nashville Predators Saturday night and the Preds held their own against one of the toughest teams in the league.

They came away with a 3-0, limiting the Ducks to just 20 shots on goal to pick up their third win in the last four games.

“They came out and had some big hits and tried to run us out of our own building,” Nashville captain Shea Weber told reporters. “I think guys in here stepped up. We stayed focused. That was good, I think.”

That’s for sure, but the Preds head into Monday’s game with some injury concerns. Mike Fisher was drilled by Ducks defenseman Francois Beauchemin and will likely be out for a while with a concussion. Sergei Kostitsyn is also questionable after he suffered a leg injury Thursday, but the Predators defense should be able to keep the Blackhawks in check.

This one should be tight until the final buzzer.

Pick: Under

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**Udog** · 10-31-2011, 12:25 AM

College football odds: Week 10 opening line report

Coach Les Miles has played it safe. Despite his potential to pop off in front of the microphone, not even Miles is confident enough to speak out of turn as his No. 1 LSU Tigers prepare to meet No. 2 Alabama in this season’s Game of the Year on Saturday.

“We will be challenged,” Miles said. “And we look forward to meeting that challenge."

And so after a bye week, in which we had to endure some ho-hum matchups while the Tigers and Crimson Tide rested, it is indeed LSU-Alabama Week. And the top spot in the BCS hangs in the balance as college football turns its eyes toward Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Alabama coach Nick Saban has been equally politically correct. Now, he’s less likely to make mistakes in press conference, so it’s been status quo with the Crimson Tide.

“It's everybody's choice to be responsible,” he said, “and be ready to play.”

Well, here’s thinking that both teams indeed will be ready. Both teams are 8-0 overall, and 5-0 in the SEC. Both teams have their sights set on Atlanta, for the league title game, and New Orleans, for the BCS title game.

But only one, for sure, will make the former. And it’s likely that only one will make the latter. Which is why this premier, primetime matchup figures to gain perhaps the most action of any game all year in Nevada.

“We expect it to be pretty big at the windows, yes,” Pete Korner of Esportclub, LLC, in Las Vegas told ***********. “This is a national championship style game. The winner will have a great shot, and there’s so much interest. With it being at night, too, you figure to get more action.”

Terry Cox, the director of the race and sportsbook at the Peppermill Resort Spa Casino in Reno, concurs.

“Most likely, it will be the most heavily bet game of the year, to date,” Cox told ***********. “And it will be a big weekend overall, especially with the Breeders Cup, too.”

With so much interest in this game, Korner has kept a close eye on this game for weeks. He and his line consultant group, Sports Club, originally recommended a line of Alabama -5 to the sportsbooks two weeks ago. Some used that line, and it was immediately pounded with LSU money last week. The line dipped to Alabama -4, as a result, but it eventually settled back at -5.

“Should be a great game, and we figure to still see LSU money in the early going,” Korner said. “But we like the line. It’s at now where we had it originally, so we’ll sit back and see what they do with it.”

And with that, let’s take a look at some of next week’s other marquee games:

Florida State (-16) at Boston College

Now that the national spotlight is off the Seminoles, Florida State has actually recovered into a moderately successful season ... depending on your standards. But Florida State has always been known to lay an egg on Thursday night, dating back to the 1990s, so the Eagles may have a shot here in the cold of Boston. But not much of one.

“Florida State is playing really well, and I see this going up before it comes down,” Korner said. “We have no respect for Boston College at this point.”

USC (-21) at Colorado

Let’s throw this game in the mix because it’s a Friday Night Special, it will be bet heavily, and it will be interesting to see how the Trojans respond after their overtime thriller vs. Stanford.

“Colorado is still not showing anything this year,” said Korner, who recommended Trojans -23 to his clients. “USC can score, they still showed well in the loss to Stanford, and this line may even go up.”

The Wynn opened at Colorado +21 but the game was bet up over the 3-TD spread pretty quickly.

Texas A&M (+14) at Oklahoma

The Sooners got back on track vs. Kansas State, and while they still need a lot of help to get back into the title game mix, they should still have enough motivation to get by an inconsistent Aggies team with ease.

“We just didn’t want to get caught short here,” Korner said. “Maybe we overvalued Oklahoma here a little. I mean Texas A&M is good, not great, but they’re capable of covering, certainly. But Oklahoma is in the must-win category now, and the line’s only going to go up from here.”

Korner’s line consultant group, Sports Club, recommended Sooners -16 but the Wynn went with just a 14-point spread on this one.

Kansas State (+21.5) at Oklahoma State

Oh boy, the Wildcats were exposed vs. Oklahoma, and more of the same should be in store versus the Cowboys, who figure to be the No. 2 team in the BCS next week, ahead of the LSU-Alabama loser.

“Another big number, and another big game that we couldn’t be caught short on,” Korner said. “This will be a high-scoring game, and Kansas State can score. But I see no problems here for Oklahoma State. None.”

Northwestern (+19) at Nebraska

Not much of a game here, but there should be plenty of points and it will be interesting to see how Nebraska responds now that they are in prime position for a Big Ten title in their first year in the league.

“The players are betting Nebraska every week. There’s no doubt about it,” said Korner, who sent out Cornhuskers -21. “This is another big favorite, so let’s see what they do with this line. Nebraska is on the outside looking in for the national picture. But they have a chance at the conference title, so why be cheap here with them?”

This one was bet down to 17.5 Sunday night at the Wynn.

Stanford (-21) at Oregon State

On a national stage, hey, the Cardinal won a tough game at USC. Was it pretty? No. Was the defense weak? Yes. But remember, this is Stanford and Andrew Luck. Which means the money is going to come in on them, and hard. So, the pros have to be prepared.

“Stanford, on the road with Luck, shouldn’t have any problems,” Korner said. “Strange game for them vs. USC, but Stanford will be back to normal here.”

Notre Dame (-13.5) at Wake Forest

Always interesting to see where the pros stand on Notre Dame. Not much glamour in this matchup, but the Irish need wins at this point, and need to continue to build momentum. And a big win over an ACC team would certainly help.

“I really wanted to go high here, and maybe I overvalued them, but it’s Notre Dame, and they will draw money,” Korner said. “They’re coming off a win, not a great win vs. Navy, but a win nonetheless. I expect another big performance, and the line, I feel, will be a bit kicked up from here by gametime.”

Korner went higher (+14) than the Wynn’s opening number, but only by a half point.

South Carolina (+4.5) at Arkansas

The Gamecocks have played in the shadow of the Tigers and Crimson Tide all year, and rightfully so. They are boring on offense, and often times inconsistent on defense. But Steve Spurrier’s crew is finding ways to get it done, and this should be a nice little SEC sidebar to the big game.

“This is a good game in the SEC and this is a fair number,” Korner said, who sent out Razorbacks -6. “As far as line movements the rest of this week, I expect it to be steady.”

Oregon (-16.5) at Washington

Surely, the Ducks were watching USC score points all over the place versus Stanford, and thought they could do even better. They’re probably right, but we will have to wait for Nov. 12 for that matchup. For now, it’s a road date at the Huskies, and plenty of chalk.

“Again, another game with a big favorite on the road. But Oregon can score, and they have to win,” Korner said. “This is one of those times, when you can probably take a flyer on a big dog here at home, but I’d rather be wrong with Oregon and get the chance to pull for them when it gets late. In a situation like this, Oregon is going to cover the number more times than not.”

**Udog** · 10-31-2011, 12:27 AM

NOTE:
For the initial posting of trends and indexes, we have provided information available up to the time of posting.
Additional updates for today’s games will be posted ASAP.

**Udog** · 10-31-2011, 08:35 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Odds to win the college basketball national title this winter:
12-1-- Syracuse-- Last year in the Big East?
8-1-- Duke-- Have biggest expense account in college hoop.
15-2-- UConn-- Would like to be in the ACC.
5-1-- Kentucky-- 5th different PG for Calipari in last five seasons.
5-2-- North Carolina-- How good will their guard play be?
2-1-- Ohio State-- Sullinger got sound advice, stayed in school.

***************

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday......

13) Wow. Talk about something coming out of nowhere, the Rams clobber the Saints, not only their first win of season, their first cover of the year.

Saints were fourth NFL team in last 40 years to score 62+ points in game; three of those four teams lost their next game. Go figure.

12) Rams had 183 rushing yards, six sacks, scored TDs on all three trips inside the red zone. Not sure why the Broncos traded Brandon Lloyd, but he's made a huge difference in the Rams' passing game in a short time.

11) Steelers were very sharp, running 78 plays for 427 yards; Patriots ran only 50 plays for 213 yards- they couldn't Big Ben off the field. Pitt was 10-16 on third down, New England only 3-10. Big win for the Steelers.

10) Arizona led 24-6 at the half in Baltimore, but their three TDs came on a 2-yard drive, a punt return TD and a 25-yard drive. Ravens had 405-207 edge in yardage, but 10 of their 13 drives started 80+ yards from paydirt. Cardinals' offense couldn't do much against the stout Baltimore defense.

9) There were 50 offensive TDs scored in 12 games Sunday; 14 of the 50 came on drives of less than 50 yards. Under was 8-4, as scoring is going to be down because of the new kickoff rule, which is hurting teams' average starting field position.

8) If Houston can get Andre Johnson healthy, they're going to be pretty freakin' good; Texans have lot of offensive weapons and a good QB, and it looks like they're going to make the plaoffs for the first time this season.

7) Eagles scored on their first six possessions and just dismantled Dallas' defense; Andy Reid is now 13-0 in the first game after his bye week.

6) Carolina is the most fun team to watch, but Olindo Mare missed an easy (31-yard) field goal with 0:26 left, after a bogus holding call on Steve Smith deprived the Panthers of a first-and-goal on the Vikings' 2-yard line. Cam Newton is definitely Rookie of the Year; he might finish pretty high in the MVP voting, too.

5) Then there's the Seahawks, whose punt coverage team allowed Bengals a mere 39 yards per return Sunday; Pete Carroll butchered the end of the first half, costing Seattle an easy FG when he went for a TD instead. His team got within 17-12 in the third quarter; could've used that field goal. Carroll really traded a 3rd round pick for Charlie Whitehurst? He bolted USC because of their impending probation; he's stealing Seattle's money.

4) I agree with something I heard on ESPN last week; the starting QB of the Denver Broncos in 2012 isn't currently a Bronco. Tim Tebow is a lot like a QB the Bears had 40 years ago, a tough lefty named Bobby Douglass who could really run but couldn't hit sand with a throw if he was standing on a beach. You know John Elway has to cringe watching Tebow pass.

3) Redskins had 26 yards rushing, 178 total yards in a hideous shutout loss to the Bills in Toronto. Who is their quarterback of the future?

2) I think Tony Sparano is a pretty good coach, but he's toast in Miami, as most 0-7 coaches get fired anyway. Dolphins play hard, but they need a franchise quarterback. Their owner will go for a big name to sell tickets.

1) So the last two years the Rams won their first game of the season when I was in Las Vegas; guess I have to visit on Opening Day next season, not wait until freakin' Week 8.

**Udog** · 10-31-2011, 08:46 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Winnipeg at Florida
The Jets look to take advantage of a Florida team that is 2-8 in its last 10 games as a favorite. Winnipeg is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Jets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+140). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 31

Game 51-52: San Jose at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.146; NY Rangers 11.707
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+110); Over

Game 53-54: Winnipeg at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.610; Florida 10.391
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+140); Under

Game 55-56: Nashville at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.712; Chicago 11.646
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-180); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+160); Under

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 31

Hot teams
-- Sharks won their last five games, allowing 10 goals.
-- Panthers won three of their last four games.
-- Nashville won three of its last four games. Blackhawks won six of their last nine games.

Cold teams
-- Rangers lost three of their last four games.
-- Winnipeg lost five of its six road games.

Totals
-- Both Ranger home games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Florida-Winnipeg games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Nashville games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Rangers won 3-2 in SO at San Jose in last year's meeting.
-- Florida lost six of last eight games against the Jets.
-- Blackhawks won six of last nine games against Nashville.

NHL

Monday, October 31

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
SAN JOSE vs. NY RANGERS
The total has gone OVER in 15 of San Jose's last 22 games on the road
San Jose is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Rangers last 7 games when playing San Jose
NY Rangers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home

7:30 PM
WINNIPEG vs. FLORIDA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Florida
Winnipeg is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Florida
Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg

8:30 PM
NASHVILLE vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nashville's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Nashville is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 13 games when playing at home against Nashville
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

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**Udog** · 10-31-2011, 10:26 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, October 31

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SAN JOSE (6-3-0-0, 12 pts.) at NY RANGERS (3-3-0-3, 9 pts.) - 10/31/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 155-124 ATS (+26.0 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 17-23 ATS (-15.8 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 71-104 ATS (-79.0 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 79-91 ATS (-53.6 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 15-25 ATS (-22.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 51-70 ATS (-30.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 1-1 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 1-1-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)

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WINNIPEG (3-6-0-1, 7 pts.) at FLORIDA (6-4-0-0, 12 pts.) - 10/31/2011, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 126-144 ATS (+289.1 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
FLORIDA is 245-285 ATS (+537.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 8-4 (+3.5 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 8-4-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-0.9 Units)

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NASHVILLE (5-4-0-1, 11 pts.) at CHICAGO (6-2-0-2, 14 pts.) - 10/31/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 102-88 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 26-24 ATS (+62.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 13-9 ATS (+26.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 11-7-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.6 Units)

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**Udog** · 10-31-2011, 12:27 PM

NHL
Short Sheet

Monday, October 31

SAN JOSE at NY RANGERS, 7:00 PM ET VERSUS
SAN JOSE: 22-8 SU off road win
NY RANGERS: 8-16 SU at home off home loss

WINNIPEG at FLORIDA, 7:30 PM ET
WINNIPEG: 8-4 SU vs. Florida
FLORIDA: 2-14 SU off road win

NASHVILLE at CHICAGO, 8:30 PM ET
NASHVILLE: 24-19 SU as road underdog
CHICAGO: 12-18 SU after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 10-31-2011, 10:32 PM

NFL Week 8 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

When I meet people they always want to know if I bet on the sports I write about.

They want to hear an emphatic yes. They want to hear it’s easy. They want to hear I make loads of money doing it.

I don’t. And it’s harder than hell just to be average.

I actually don’t encourage people to gamble. I tell them that it’s incredible entertainment but unless they can dive into a pool of disposable income like Scrooge McDuck, don’t get too serious about sports betting.

I tried not to get too serious this year. But after a pretty good start it was hard to maintain that mindset.

I wasn’t sharp, but I was making paper cuts as an ordinary bettor. People started to notice and my confidence started to grow. Then Sunday came with a cold dose of reality. It’ll be tough to go to sleep tonight.

We’ve all had moments like this. You build a decent bankroll and then donate half of it to the Dark Side in one agonizing afternoon.

I’m not going to lie, I’m gun shy going into next week. But that doesn’t mean I won’t get back on the horse.

That’s the just game we play. But it’s a good thing I still have a day job.

Titanic team total

When you have an under bet you don’t want NFL RedZone cutting to highlights often.

I hoped we wouldn’t have to stomach much of the Colts-Titans game because a) Curtis Painter was on the field and b) I had under 26 for the Tennessee team total.

I really thought the Titans were going to try and discover their run game this week. Force-feeding CJ2K meant steady ticks off the clock.

And I thought the Indy defense would come out to play after giving up a hundred points last week. And you know what? It did…by Colts standards.

The defense only allowed 20. I would have cashed if not for a blocked punt recovered in the end zone. Too bad team totals aren’t graded like fantasy where defensive and special teams scores don’t count.

Of course I was tormented by the gambling gods until five minutes left when the Titans scored a garbage touchdown off a short field. Those were their only points in the second half and I missed the push by one. FML.

Giant disgrace

There’s just no way to sugarcoat it: The Giants play down to their competition.

I just think they’re a little too cocky. They thought they could slap around the Seahawks without Tuck and Jacobs and lost as double-digit chalk. Then they needed major comebacks against the Cards and Dolphins.

New York should be much better than it’s been -- on the field and at the wagering window. Yes, there are holes in the defense but the NFL’s best pass rush makes up for a lot. When it’s engaged there aren’t many lines that can stop it.

And I don’t understand why the offense still attempts to be a run-oriented. Eli is an elite quarterback and he has one of the best wideout trios in the game. I know you have to keep the defense honest with the run, blah, blah, blah, but why don’t you try chucking it around like all the other top teams in the league.

Damned “70-year-old man”

They say there’s holding on every play. That may be true, but they rarely call holding on receivers. Steve Smith and I aren’t happy with the blown call in the closing seconds at Carolina.

Some idiot zebra 20 yards away tossed a flag well after the alleged hold. The penalty negated a first-down run by Sir Newton, which would have set them up at the two-yard line. He would have scored on the next play, the Kittens would have won by four and I would have avoided a disastrous day.

Steve is trying to sidestep a fine with sarcasm but he wants to fight that old man, you can see it in his eyes

Lean on me

Bengals +3 at Titans - The Gingerbread Kid and his cronies continue to defy the odds.

Niners -3.5 at Redskins - Why wouldn’t we start fading the Fightin’ Becks every week?

Giants +9 at Patriots - I said the G-Men play down to their competition, I didn’t say they should be a two-score dog. The last time they were, they beat the Eagles outright.

NFL Record: 19-11-2, $685
(Chiefs +4, ML pending)

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Monday's Trends and Indexes - 10/31 (NHL, CFL, Misc.)

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 10/31 (NHL, CFL, Misc.)

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