The Bum's NFL Week # 8 Best Bets 10/30-10/31 !

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'Tebow-Mania' As Denver Broncos Host Detroit Lions

The quarterback position is getting all the pre-game attention as the Denver Broncos welcome the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon.

Denver is now a 3-point ‘dog at Don Best after opening at 3 ½. The injury situation regarding Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford is one reason why. More on that below.

The total has had a corresponding drop from a 44 ½-point open to 42. FOX will have the 4:05 p.m. (ET) broadcast from Sports Authority Field at Mile High and its hoping that ‘Tim Tebow-mania’ gives a ratings boost.

The Lions would normally be thrilled with a 5-2 straight-up record this time of year, but they’ve gone backwards the last two weeks with home defeats to San Francisco (25-19) and Atlanta (23-16). Those were also the first two losses against the spread (starting 4-0-1 ATS), ranging from 4 ½-5 ½-point favorites.

The offense has been the main culprit after averaging 31.8 PPG in the first five. The ‘under’ is 3-0 in Detroit’s last three games (all at home) after the ‘over’ started 4-0.

Stafford struggled in the two losses (238 YPG, 52.4 completion percentage) after a very hot and accurate start (287.2 YPG, 63.6 percent). He hurt his ankle last week versus Atlanta and is questionable even after practicing some on Wednesday.

If Stafford can’t go, then 31-year-old veteran Shaun Hill will get the nod. He started 10 games last year with Stafford hurt, with Detroit winning just three. However, two of those wins were the final two games and he had a respectable 81.3 quarterback rating overall.

It would help both quarterbacks to have a running game, but the Lions are just 27th in the league (92.7 YPG). Leading rusher Jahvid Best (390 yards) is doubtful with a concussion after also missing last week. Best will be missed as a receiving threat (287 yards) as well.

The Lions have been great on the road at 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS. That includes miracle comeback wins at Minnesota (26-23 OT) and Dallas (34-30). However they haven’t played away since October 2 and a lot of the team magic has disappeared for now.

The Broncos may only be 2-4 SU (2-4 ATS), but some fans are only concerned about their record with Tebow starting. That’s a perfect 1-0 SU and ATS after a miraculous 18-15 comeback win at Miami last week as 1-point favorites.

Tebow was awful (4-of-14, 40 yards) for the first 54 minutes, but led Denver on two late touchdown drives that forced overtime. The ultra-religious quarterback perhaps got some divine intervention with an onside kick sandwiched between the two scores. He finished with 161 passing yards, two TDs and a 91.7 quarterback rating.

The question for Sunday is whether Tebow can start his magic a little earlier. There’s no doubt the former Heisman winner has the ‘it factor’ which allows him to excel in critical moments and get teammates to go all out for him. However, he’s a work-in-progress mechanically as a passer and that’s not going to change anytime soon.

The Broncos also don’t have a lot of receiving weapons, especially after trading Brandon Lloyd to St. Louis. Running back Willis McGahee has averaged over 100 yards rushing the last three weeks, but he’s out with a hand injury. Look for former starter Knowshon Moreno to get most of the carries, but McGahee is a big loss.

Defensively, Denver ranks 18th in the league in run defense (118.5 YPG) and 19th against the run (247.5 YPG). Detroit quarterbacks will likely not have to worry about pass rusher Elvis Dumervil, doubtful with an ankle injury.

The Broncos are just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS at home this year. The win was against Cincinnati (24-22) and the losses to AFC West rivals Oakland (23-20) and San Diego (29-24). This game should have a different atmosphere with the first home start this season for the uber-popular Tebow. He went 1-1 as a starter at home last year in the final two games.

The Don Best Linemakers Poll has its own take on this contest with Detroit tied for 12th (93.9 rating) and Denver 26th (87.8).

These teams have met just twice since 2003, splitting the wins and Detroit going 2-0 ATS. However, there is little in similarity for either team right now.

Weather looks fine for this time of year in the Rocky Mountains, partly cloudy and likely starting in the low 50s.

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New Orleans Saints Travel To Take On St. Louis Rams

To paraphrase the late, great comic Henny Youngman, "Take the Rams...please!"

So it goes for the tale of woe in St. Louis, circa 2011, as the Rams march inexorably toward another disastrous campaign reminiscent of their 2-14 and 1-15 slogs through the 2008 and 2009 seasons, respectively. At 0-6 straight up and yet to cover a pointspread this season, the Rams are about as "go-against" as you can get right now.

Various Las Vegas sports book managers are also likely paraphrasing Youngman in hopes of generating some wagering betting interest on the lowly Rams.

Making matters worse is that this week’s opponent, New Orleans (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS), hardly needs a jet to fly into Lambert International Airport after last Sunday night’s 62-7 blowout win, a franchise record for win margin, over another subpar outfit, Indianapolis.

The Don Best odds screen has the Saints priced as 13½-point favorites at most Las Vegas betting outlets, with the total mostly listed at 48. Sunday’s kickoff time at the Edward Jones Dome is slated for 1:00 p.m. (ET), with FOX providing the coverage. Marty Brennaman’s son Thom, plus Troy Aikman and the lovely Pam Oliver, will provide the commentary adjacent to the Gateway Arch.

Discussing this matchup in competitive terms almost seems a waste of time, considering the Rams’ recent plight. Raw numbers only relate part of the story, but they’re enough to paint the ugly picture at the moment in St. Looie. Five of the Rams’ six defeats have come by double-digit margins, with St. Louis no closer than 21 points in its last two losses vs. the Packers and Cowboys. The Rams are not only bad, but they’re boring, hardly outscoring the hometown NHL Blues over their last four games when tallying only 6.8 ppg.

Of course, St. Louis has some excuses, the biggest one being QB Sam Bradford’s high ankle sprain that threatens to keep him out of action for a second straight week. If sidelined, journeyman A.J. Feeley will once again get the starting call.

For the Rams, however, bad news began back in opening week, indeed on star RB Steven Jackson’s second carry of the season when he went down with a strained quad. The misfortune was illuminated further because Jackson had burst for a long TD run vs. the Eagles on his first carry of the season. Although Jackson returned to the lineup a few games later, he still doesn’t seem at 100%, and has yet to crack the 100-yard barrier this season.

And even before his recent ankle injury, Bradford had seemed to lose his confidence, tossing only three TD passes and completing just 53 percent of his passes in five games. The loss of favorite receiving target Danny Amendola also negatively impacted the snakebit Rams and Bradford, who was hobbling in a walking boot at midweek and listed as doubtful for Sunday.

The Rams are hoping that recently-acquired WR Brandon Lloyd (from Denver) can spark the aerial attack. Lloyd did have a team-best six catches last week at Dallas but failed to cause any specific problems for the Cowboys, and is absent the field-stretching dimension that the Ram attack sorely needs.

Offense, however, isn’t St. Louis’ only problem lately. The defense was run off the field in the first half two weeks ago at Green Bay when surrendering 24 points, and when allowed Dallas rookie RB DeMarco Murray to set a Cowboys team record with 253 YR in last week’s 34-7 Dallas romp.

The bigger developing storyline in St. Louis, one that we’ll be following into November and December, is where the Rams might land in next April’s NFL Draft. Most keen observers suggest that the race for the top pick is likely to come down to the Rams, Colts and Dolphins. Of that trio, St. Louis would appear the only one unlikely to draft Stanford QB Andrew Luck, widely expected to declare for the draft and become the first player selected.

The dynamics surrounding the possibility St. Louis could get the top pick are far more interesting than any involving the Dolphins or Colts, who likely select Luck if they have the chance. But with Bradford already in tow, the Rams probably aren’t going to be interested in Luck, and will listen to any and all offers if indeed they receive the top choice.

This scenario opens up all sorts of possibilities with various teams likely to tempt the Rams with a high draft picks and/or established players, and puts franchises such as the 49ers (coached by Luck’s former college mentor Jim Harbaugh), Redskins, Chiefs, Broncos, Cowboys and perhaps several others into the mix. Stay tuned for further developments.

The only real intrigue for the Rams surrounding this week’s game vs. the Saints is if New Orleans will be interested and sharp enough to extend the margin beyond the hefty impost. Rams backers can take encouragement that the Saints, then undefeated, seemed to sleepwalk their way to a 28-23 win over the 14½-point underdog Rams at a similar stage in the 2009 season. New Orleans took care of business quite handily last December 12 at the Superdome when easing to a 31-13 win over a then-surging Rams team.

Look for New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams to dial up lots of blitzes against Feeley and a Rams pass protection that has resulted in a whopping 23 sacks of St. Louis QBs thus far.

Meanwhile, the Rams’ soft rush defense, allowing a hefty 5.5 ypc and torched last week by the aforementioned Murray, could be in for a long afternoon vs. the Saints’ troika of Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, and Darren Sproles.

If New Orleans can established the run, we shudder to think what damage QB Drew Brees might be able to cause with an effective infantry diversion at his disposal. Brees was about as sharp as possible last week vs. the Colts, leading scoring drives on all eight of the Saints’ possessions (six TDs and two field goals) when he was on the field.

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Dallas Cowboys In Key Battle At Philadelphia Eagles

Two NFC East rivals in dire need of a win take the field Sunday night when the Philadelphia Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys.

Sunday Night Football will start at 8:20 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on NBC. The Eagles are currently a 3 ½-point favorite at home on the Don Best odds screen.

With the New York Giants currently leading the NFC East with a 4-2 record and facing the winless Miami Dolphins this week, both Philadelphia and Dallas need to win this game if they want to keep pace in the division race. Philadelphia comes in at No. 9 on the Don Best Linemakers Poll, while Dallas is right behind them at No. 10.

Dallas (3-3) is one of the most difficult teams in the league to figure out this season. One could easily argue that the Cowboys could be 6-0; they blew large late leads to the New York Jets and Detroit Lions, and also had a chance to beat New England with a late lead as well.

But the ability to play all 60 minutes is part of the game, and with Tony Romo’s excellent play for most of the game apparently comes his late-game collapses.

An injury to Felix Jones may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Filling in for the injured Jones last week, DeMarco Murray rushed for a Cowboys franchise-record 253 yards on just 25 carries against St. Louis. Obviously Murray won’t be setting new records every week, but if he can help the Cowboys establish a run game they can trust late in the game, it could go a long way in protecting leads and taking the pressure off of Tony Romo.

Philadelphia (2-4) came into the year as a favorite to win the Super Bowl, but at this point it would take an incredible run just to make the playoffs. The team clearly has the talent on paper, but was one bye week enough to correct the issues on defense and the offensive line that have ailed them? They get a tough test against Dallas this week to find out.

Since 1999, Coach Andy Reid is a perfect 12-0 SU coming off of a bye week.

LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick have led the Eagles the best rushing attack in the NFL, averaging 170 yards per game. But while Philadelphia can run the ball effectively, they haven’t been able to stop the rush, currently ranked 23rd with 123.8 rushing yards against per game. If Philadelphia can’t do a better job stopping the run, it doesn’t matter how talented their secondary is.

Dallas is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings with Philadelphia, including a three-game sweep in 2009 capped off by a win over the Eagles in the playoffs. Philadelphia was 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the five meetings before that.

The total for Sunday night’s game is one of the highest on the Don Best odds screen this week at 50 ½. The ‘over’ and ‘under’ are split at 5-5 in the last 10 games between Philadelphia and Dallas, but the total has gone ‘over’ in seven of the last 10 games these two have played in Philadelphia.

Rain and snow are in the Philly forecast for Saturday, but the wintry mix is expected to leave behind clear skies on Sunday. Kickoff should find the thermometer in the mid-40s.

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Pittsburgh Steelers Tackle New England Patriots

New England and Pittsburgh have become rather familiar with one another over the years thanks to several memorable encounters.

And perhaps we’ll get another when the teams square off on Sunday in the Steel City.

Oddsmakers are certainly anticipating another competitive battle, with the Patriots (5-1 straight up, 4-2 against the spread) listed as 3-point favorites over the Steelers (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS). Totals prices at Las Vegas books, as indicated by the Don Best odds screen, range between a hefty 52 and 53 points.

Kickoff time at Heinz Field on Sunday is 4:15 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing TV coverage for much of the nation in the second half of its doubleheader. Ian Eagle and Dan Fouts will describe the action.

This decade-long battle for supremacy of the AFC really began between these teams way back in 2001, when the Patriots faced the Steelers for the AFC title at Heinz Field. New England, with backup QB Drew Bledsoe, who surrendered the starting role to a young Tom Brady earlier that season, was a 10-point underdog that cold afternoon in Pittsburgh. But Bledsoe delivered a solid effort for the underdog Patriots, who won 24-17 en route to their first Super Bowl title the following week (remember, there was no break between the conference title games and Super Bowl that season in the wake of the postponement of games following 9/11).

This rivalry between two of the powerhouse sides of the past decade really took on a new edge almost seven years ago to the day, back on October 31, 2004. On that Halloween afternoon, the defending Super Bowl champ Patriots rumbled into Heinz Field as 3-point favorites with a 6-0 mark, prompting comparisons to the 17-0 Dolphins of 1972. But things went pear-shaped that day for Bill Belichick’s men, overwhelmed in a 34-20 defeat that also served as a coming out party of sorts for Ben Roethlisberger, then a rookie QB for Pittsburgh.

Belichick would get his revenge later that season in the AFC title game when the Patriots, in a game rated a pick ’em by oddsmakers, scored a 41-27 win on the same Heinz Field turf, prior to New England’s last Super Bowl win, a 24-21 success two weeks later over the Eagles at Jacksonville in Super Bowl XXXIX.

And the recurring pattern for New England-Pittsburgh meetings since was mostly illustrated in that 2004 AFC title win.

In other words, it’s mostly been advantage Patriots.

The key factor in New England’s recent successes over the Steelers has been the availability of Brady, who not only led that win in the AFC title game but a subsequent 23-20 success in 2005 at Heinz, a 34-13 romp in 2007 at Gillette Stadium, and a 39-26 win over the Steelers at Heinz Field last year.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s only series success since the 2004 regular season came when Brady was injured and out of the lineup in 2008, the only year New England has missed the playoffs since 2002. With backup Matt Cassel at the controls, New England was thrashed 33-10 by Mike Tomlin’s Steelers.

Brady, however, dazzled in last year’s 39-26 win at Heinz Field, completing 30-of-43 passes for 350 yards with three touchdowns and no picks.

Brady is now 6-1 overall against the Steelers and has beaten them three straight at Heinz Field. Brady has averaged 373 passing yards in his last three starts vs. the Men of Steel as well.

New England also seems to be catching an updraft this season, winning three straight since a bitter 34-31 loss at Buffalo back in Week 3. Stop unit concerns, rare for a Belichick-coached team, surfaced during the first month when the Pats uncharacteristically ranked at the bottom of NFL total defense stats for a few weeks.

In recent games, however, Belichick has been able to reignite his pass rush, which has been crucial with the Patriot secondary still in a period of personnel adjustment. With several new faces manning the back seven, it’s crucial for New England to exert some pass rush pressure. Otherwise, there is an opportunity for Big Ben to do some significant damage on Sunday.

After battling a foot injury earlier in the year, Roethlisberger seems to finding some traction, passing for 361 yards and three scores last week at Arizona. Along the way, he connected on a 95-yard TD pass to WR Mike Wallace, the longest pass play in franchise history.

This matchup suggests another high-scoring affair, especially since Brady’s quick release has always proven an effective combatant to the Steeler pass rush and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau’s various zone blitzes. Brady’s receiving corps has always matched up well vs. the Steelers secondary, too. Meanwhile, if the Patriots can’t generate a consistent pass rush, Big Ben’s receivers will have the New England DBs under constant duress.

The total is posted rather high for a few reasons, not the least of which is New England’s 20-5 ‘over’ mark since late in 2009 season. With Brady and the efficient Patriot offense usually scoring points, it serves to accelerate the pace and tempo of New England games. Seven of the last eight in this series have gone ‘over’ as well, although in none of those games was the total higher than the 47 posted in 2007 (last year it was posted at 45).

Also, it’s a rare chance to take Pittsburgh plus the points. Coming into this season, the Steelers were 9-4 as the "short" since coach Mike Tomlin arrived in 2007, although Pittsburgh dropped its first two tries as an underdog (at Baltimore and Houston) earlier this season.

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San Diego Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs Monday Night Football

The Kansas City Chiefs may have turned in the most surprising performance of Week 7 and hope to carry that over to Monday Night Football when they host the San Diego Chargers in a key AFC West matchup.

Will Kansas City fans get a trick or a treat though when their team takes the field at Arrowhead Stadium on Halloween night?

The Chiefs (3-3) looked nothing like the defending division champions through the first three weeks of the season, but they have bounced back by winning three in a row and will try to beat the Chargers (4-2) for just the second time in nine meetings. Which Kansas City team shows up will be the key to who wins this game following the Chiefs' impressive 28-0 road win against the Oakland Raiders.

Game time is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by ESPN. San Diego opened as a 3 ½-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen and has remained there while the total is steady at 44.

The Chargers fell from No. 5 to No. 7 this week in the Don Best Linemakers Poll after losing on the road to the New York Jets, 27-21. The setback snapped a three-game winning streak that started with a 20-17 home win over the 23rd-ranked Chiefs in Week 3.

San Diego failed to cover the 14 ½-point spread against Kansas City in the first meeting this season, as the team could not find a way to get up by more than 10 at any point. The Chargers have covered just two of their six games this year with the ‘over’ cashing in the last two.

The Chiefs played their first full game without running back Jamaal Charles at San Diego and have since found a capable replacement in Jackie Battle, who carried the ball just one time for two yards in that Sept. 25 game. He has averaged nearly 98 yards on 35 combined rushing attempts over the last past two.

Kansas City quarterback Matt Cassel has also played much better in the last three games, all resulting in wins. Cassel had failed to throw for more than 176 yards during the team’s 0-3 start with three touchdowns and five interceptions. In the three wins, he has averaged 226 passing yard with five touchdowns and two picks.

San Diego has beaten Kansas City in the last two meetings since losing last year’s season opener at Arrowhead Stadium, 21-14. The Chargers were also favored by four points in that game and wound up seeing their streak of four straight AFC West titles come to an end despite pounding the Chiefs 31-0 in the rematch.

The Chargers have some health concerns on offense, specifically the left side of their line and the backfield. Tackle Marcus McNeill is doubtful with a neck injury and guard Kris Dielman is questionable with a concussion.

Ryan Mathews (thumb) is probable but his backfield mate Mike Tolbert is questionable with a hamstring injury.

The Chiefs are not reporting any new injuries.

The weather forecast for Kansas City on Monday calls for a high temperature of 66 cooling down to 42 at night.

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Ram the Books?

October 27, 2011

Heavy Home 'dogs provide Value

Plenty of gamblers buy too much into perception and what just happened the week before, especially in the NFL. Sometimes, the teams that didn’t perform well the prior week are actually strong looks in their next game.

Numbers never lie and all bettors looking for another angle should check out the below system that has been a proven winner annually.

Play on any home underdog that is coming off a road loss of at least 21 points or more

Since 2006 and including this season, teams in these situations have gone 34-21 against the spread, hitting at a 62% clip.

If you delve into these numbers further, you’ll see that these underdogs own a sterling 22-10 ATS (69%) mark when receiving at least 5 ½-points.

How has the system performed this season?

2011 Home Underdog Results
Road Loss of 21 or more Following Week at Home SU-ATS Result
Indianapolis 7 Houston 34 Cleveland 27 Indianapolis (+1.5) 19 LOSS-LOSS
Seattle 0 Pittsburgh 24 Arizona 10 Seattle (+3) 13 WIN-WIN
Denver 23 Green Bay 49 San Diego 29 Denver (+3.5) 24 LOSS-LOSS
Tampa Bay 3 San Francisco 48 New Orleans 20 Tampa Bay (+6) 26 WIN-WIN
Minnesota 10 Chicago 39 Green Bay 33 Minnesota (+10) 27 LOSS-WIN
St. Louis 7 Dallas 34 New Orleans at St. Louis TBD



Looking at the above table, you can see that it’s hitting 60% but make a note that it’s also perfect (2-0) with home underdogs catching 5 1/2-points or more. The Vikings earned the backdoor cover last week against the Packers and two weeks ago, the Buccaneers knocked off the Saints outright.

The situation comes up again in Week 8, with New Orleans heading to St. Louis as a double-digit favorite. It’s certainly hard to make a case on the Rams considering the team has only scored 56 points this season and the status of quarterback Sam Bradford is ‘doubtful.’

We understand New Orleans can be a juggernaut at times, evidenced by its 62-point outburst last Sunday against Indianapolis. However, are you aware that the Saints are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season? Do you know that New Orleans is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 on the road versus non-divisional opponents?

Also, even though we all hear the “one game at a time” approach spoken by head coaches, the look-ahead spot fits not once but twice for the Saints. After the Rams, New Orleans hosts Tampa Bay before heading to Atlanta.

As you all know, nothing is guaranteed in sports betting but the premise of this system is to not discount teams that are coming off less than stellar performances, since you can find value in these squads as ‘dogs, especially in their house.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 8 Preview: Cowboys at Eagles

DALLAS COWBOYS (3-3)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-4)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 51

One of the NFL’s nastiest rivalries resumes Sunday night in Philadelphia when the hated Cowboys roll into town.

Both teams have big-play offenses that are prone to making mistakes. The follies of Tony Romo have been well-chronicled, but it’s Philly who leads the NFL in turnovers (17). Last December in Dallas, the Eagles got big play after big play in a 30-27 win over the Cowboys. But it’s what happened in their last game this season that’s encouraging for Philly. After allowing opponents to run all over them in their first five games, they held Washington to just 42 yards on 14 carries in Week 6, and they had a bye week to further improve their run defense. Those early-season defensive struggles are among the reasons they’re only a small favorite in this game, but Philly obviously has the offensive firepower to run up the score on Dallas. As long as they can minimize turnovers, the Eagles should win this one by at least a touchdown. PHILADELPHIA is the play here.

This FoxSheets trend gives another reason to pick the Eagles:

DALLAS is 5-19 ATS (20.8%, -15.9 Units) in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992. The average score was DALLAS 16.9, OPPONENT 23.2 - (Rating = 2*).

Dallas has won four of the past five meetings (SU and ATS) with Philly, but this game could come down to whether the Cowboys running game can keep it going against a suspect Eagles run defense. Rookie RB DeMarco Murray is coming off a franchise-record 253 rushing yards in a 34-7 blowout win over the lowly Rams. This was the first Dallas game this year that was decided by more than four points. The ever-erratic Romo has been just that in this series. In 10 meetings with the Eagles, he has thrown for 180 yards per game, 10 TD and 10 INT. However, he finally has all three of his top receivers healthy. The trio of WR Dez Bryant, WR Miles Austin and TE Jason Witten have all 11 of the team’s TD catches and have combined for 22 gains of 20+ yards this year.

The Dallas defense has certainly improved under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan this year. The Cowboys lead the NFL in rushing defense (69.7 YPG) and have forced 12 turnovers in six games. They could be without their top cornerback though, as Terence Newman is questionable with a hand injury.

Last December, it was the big play that led Philly to a 30-27 win. DeSean Jackson had 210 yards on four catches and LeSean McCoy had 149 yards on just 16 carries. The Cowboys showed the world they could rush the football, but the Eagles also know a thing or two about gaining yards on the ground. McCoy and QB Michael Vick continue to propel the NFL’s top-ranked rushing offense (170 YPG). But Vick has struggled throwing the football, with a pedestrian 84.4 QB rating (9 TD, 8 INT). Last year, Vick had a 100.2 QB rating (21 TD, 6 INT). In Vick’s lone start against Dallas in an Eagles uniform last year, he was 16-of-26 for 270 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT and rushed for 16 yards and another score. WR Jeremy Maclin is having a great season, catching 36 passes for 469 yards and 3 TD in his past five games. Philadelphia has an unhealthy streak of five consecutive games with multiple turnovers.

On defense, the Eagles could get a nice boost if DE Trent Cole returns to the field. Cole, who has five sacks in eight career meetings with Dallas, has missed the past two games with a calf injury, but has resumed practicing this week. The passing defense ranks 10th in the league (214 YPG) and has allowed just one opponent to throw for 250 yards this year (49ers 278).

[StarDust Bum]

Week 8 Preview: Patriots at Steelers

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-1)

at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -3, Total: 50.5

Two AFC powerhouses riding three-game win streaks collide in Pittsburgh Sunday when the Steelers host the Patriots.

Even in its best days, Dick LeBeau’s Pittsburgh defense has been no match for Tom Brady. The Patriots are 6-1 ATS and SU against the Steelers with Brady under center, and he has picked apart the blitz-heavy Steel Curtain in the past two meetings, posting a 121.4 rating without getting sacked in two double-digit New England wins. The Patriots defense has made strides in their past two games, holding the Jets to 255 total yards and the Cowboys to 377 yards. The expected return of star LB Jerod Mayo will only help New England stop an erratic Pittsburgh rushing game. The pick here is NEW ENGLAND to leave the Steel City with another victory.

There’s also two highly-rated FoxSheets trends working for well-rested New England:

Bill Belichick is 33-11 ATS (75.0%, +20.9 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 26.4, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Play On - Road favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest. (32-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (80%, +23.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Brady has thrown 14 TD and only 3 INT in his seven career meetings with Pittsburgh, and he’s having another phenomenal season with a league-high 361 passing YPG. Brady has completed 68% of his passes, tallying 16 TD and 8 INT. Much of this success has to do with WR Wes Welker, who leads the NFL in receptions (51), targets (74) and receiving yards per game (131). Welker had eight catches for 89 yards in last year’s meeting with Pittsburgh. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been solid all season with 391 rushing yards (4.3 YPC) and five touchdowns despite his longest gain being 16 yards. He is the biggest reason the pass-happy Patriots also rank 10th in the NFL in rushing yardage (124 YPG).

New England has surrendered 300+ passing yards in five of six games this year, and continues to rank last in the NFL in passing defense (322 YPG). However, the Raiders are the only opponent that have rushed for more than 100 yards on the Patriots this season.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is on fire, throwing for 781 yards and nine touchdowns during his team’s three-game winning streak. He has also played well against New England in his career. Including the postseason, Roethlisberger has thrown 12 TD and 5 INT in six lifetime meetings. He’ll continue to use the blazing speed of Mike Wallace to move the football. In his lone career meeting against the Patriots last year, Wallace caught eight passes for 136 yards and 2 TD. He currently ranks third in the NFL with 730 receiving yards, is gaining 20.3 yards per catch and has scored touchdowns in three straight games. The running game has been up-and-down all season, and it is coming off a down week of gaining 91 yards on 28 carries (3.3 YPC) at Arizona. Top RB Rashard Mendenhall has reached 70 yards only once in six games this year, a monstrous 146-yard effort (6.3 YPC) two weeks ago against Jacksonville. Mendenhall’s YPC average is 2.9 in his other five games.

Pittsburgh has a league-worst minus-9 turnover ratio, which is a respectable minus-2 since the seven-turnover, Week 1 debacle (35-7 loss) in Baltimore. But the defense is just not creating havoc like it has in years past, forcing only three turnovers in seven games. Despite the lack of turnovers, Pittsburgh has the NFL’s top passing defense (172 YPG) and ranks 12th in stopping the run (107 YPG). No team has surpassed 20 points on Pittsburgh since the Ravens game.

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Browns Pay Week 8 Visit To San Francisco 49ers

In one of this season’s biggest surprises, the San Francisco 49ers have one of the best records in the NFL, and they’ll look to pick up another win this week at home against the Cleveland Browns this Sunday.

San Francisco is currently a 9-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen. Sunday’s game will be televised nationally on CBS, and is set to kick off at 4:15 p.m. (ET).

Neither team is ranked too high in this week’s Don Best Linemakers Poll, with San Francisco coming in at No. 16 and Cleveland finishing near the bottom of the league at No. 27.

San Francisco (5-1) at first glance might be written off by some as the product of a soft NFC West, but the 49ers have actually only played one of their divisional rivals so far. Over the course of their current four-game winning streak (also 4-0 ATS), the Niners have wins over three teams with winning records in Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and Detroit, plus a victory over the talented but underachieving Philadelphia Eagles.

The 49ers aren't just winning on the scoreboard, either, going 5-0-1 against the spread as they come out of their bye.

Under first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh, San Fran has returned to a smash-mouth brand of football. Alex Smith has only thrown two interceptions this season in a game-manager role as the offense’s focal point is on the running game. Frank Gore is having a strong season, leading San Francisco to the 6th-ranked rushing attack in the league with 541 yards on 109 attempts so far.

Cleveland (3-3) is just 1-4-1 ATS and has looked terrible on offense. Colt McCoy has taken some strides forward in the passing game this season, but the Browns are managing just 16.2 points per game in large part due to struggles in the running game.

After a breakout season in 2010, Peyton Hillis has been extremely ineffective this season, dealing with a nagging hamstring injury that has limited him to just 211 yards on 60 carries. His backup, Montario Hardesty, hasn’t been much better with just 238 yards on 73 carries.

Going up against a stingy 49ers rushing defense this week (ranked second in the league allowing only 74.7 rushing yards per game), McCoy will have to have a big day to give Cleveland a chance.

Cleveland is just 5-16 SU the last 21 games away from home. San Francisco is 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games at Candlestick Park. This is just the third time this season that the 49ers are playing the role of favorite, and they are 2-0 ATS in the other two.

The total for Sunday’s game is currently set at 38 ½. Four of Cleveland’s last five games on the road have gone ‘under,’ but the last five San Francisco home tilts have gone 'over,' so something has to give Sunday.

Beautiful weather is in the forecast for San Francisco all weekend, with plenty of sunshine and an afternoon high in the low-to-mid 70s on Sunday.

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Bengals And Seahawks At Qwest Field In Seattle

Qwest Field in Seattle will be the site of one of the late games on the NFL Week 8 betting slate, as the Cincinnati Bengals look to steal one on the road at the Seattle Seahawks. Kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage on CBS.

Here at Don Best, we are giving no respect whatsoever to the Seahawks (2-4 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) with our Linemakers Poll. We rank them No. 31 in the league, only ahead of the winless Indianapolis Colts.

There are times though, that this team has surprised. Just ask the 4-2 New York Giants how they felt when the Seahawks came to MetLife Stadium three weeks ago!

Plus, the "12th Man" at Qwest Field will come into play this week. This stadium, for whatever reason, just does odd things to the opposition. The Seahawks have already won at home against the Arizona Cardinals, and they came up just short of beating the Atlanta Falcons.

It's going to be quite the test for young Andy Dalton, the leader of the Bengals (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS). Dalton does have two road wins to his credit, but there is a big difference between playing road games here at Qwest Field and at Ever Bank Field or Cleveland Browns Stadium.

Still, we have to recognize that if the playoffs were to start today, Cincinnati would be in the field. The whole mojo of this team changed with Carson Palmer's departure, and now, the squad is going to have two more high draft picks to play with to help rebuild the team as well.

No one is going to confuse the Bengals for Super Bowl contenders this year, as they are still only ranked No. 19 in our Don Best Linemakers Poll and still in the bottom half most power rankings. However, there is no doubt that this team is going in the right direction thanks to its newly rebuilt offense and a rejuvenated defense.

The Bengals allowed 21 or more points 11 times during the 2010 season, including 10 straight games in the middle of the campaign. All 10 ended in defeat.

Now, the squad has only allowed more than 20 points once, a 24-22 loss to the Denver Broncos. This unit ranks No. 2 in the league in total defense at 278.5 YPG and No. 4 in scoring at 18.5 PPG.

Needless to say, we would be awfully surprised if the Seahawks were able to put three touchdowns on the board. The team is only averaging 263.3 YPG this year, second lowest in the league, and the only reason that it is averaging 16.2 PPG (No. 28) is thanks to that 36-point outburst against the Giants.

Seattle only mustered a stunning 140 total yards last week against the Cleveland Browns in a game that was lost 6-3. Prior to that, the Seahawks had never lost a game in which they had allowed six points or fewer in franchise history.

There are plenty of injury concerns on both sides. We already know that this is the game that Cincinnati will be without the suspended Cedric Benson for his off the field issues, and the Bengals could have to deal with notable injuries to Nate Clements and Kelly Jennings.

The Seahawks should get back Zach Miller after he missed last week's loss with a mild concussion, and the hope is that Tarvaris Jackson can get back under center as well after missing the last game and a half with a pectoral injury. Marshawn Lynch was also injured in warm-ups last week and sat out at Cleveland, and he is listed as questionable this week.

The Bengals have covered four of the past five spreads in this series, but that dates all the way back to 1994 when these teams still shared the AFC together. The home team has won four games in a row SU.

Cincinnati opened up the week as just a 1 ½-point favorite, a number that has since risen to three. The total has dropped a point to 37 ½.

Expect a cold and dreary weekend at Qwest Field. The forecast is calling for temperatures in the low-50s with a 70 percent chance of rain. With a weather report like that, don't be surprised if this total continues to drop.

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Tennessee Titans Home Favorites Vs Indianapolis Colts

Two teams coming off record breaking losses, the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans, meet up in Nashville on Sunday afternoon.

The Titans are mostly an 8 ½-point favorite at Don Best after opening at 10 ½. The total is 43 ½-points and CBS will broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from LP Field, the scene of the crime last week.

The Don Best Linemakers Poll has Tennessee ranked 22nd (89.4 rating) and Indy dead-last (84.4).

The Titans (3-3 straight up, 2-4 against the spread) are coming off a 41-7 loss to Houston in which they were actually 3-point favorites. They got run over in total yards (518- 148) and time of possession (38-22 minutes). It was the worst loss ever for them at LP Field, which opened in 1999.

The Colts (0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS) had an even worse week, believe it or not. They got humiliated in a Super Bowl XLIV rematch at New Orleans, 62-7 as just 13 ½-point ‘dogs. It was the second-worst defeat in franchise history, only behind a 57-0 drubbing by the Bears in 1962 as the Baltimore Colts.

The question for both teams is where are they headed now? Tennessee isn’t in horrible shape at just a half-game behind Houston (4-3 SU) in the AFC South. Having Jacksonville (2-5 SU) and decimated Indy in the division likely makes it a 2-team race.

First-year coach Mike Munchak has problems on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck looked like he discovered the fountain of youth the first four games with no quarterback rating under 93. However, the 36-year-old struggled last week (38.7 rating) and the prior 38-17 loss at Pittsburgh (72 rating).

Hasselbeck also hurt his right thumb last week. He says it won’t be a problem and he did practice fully on Thursday. Having receiver Kenny Britt go down for the year after Week 3 really hurt as does a rushing game that’s last in the league (64.3 YPG). Chris Johnson (2.9 yards per carry) hasn’t shown any signs of ending his season-long slump after his training camp holdout.

Tennessee’s best course of action is pounding the ball at the smallish Colts front-seven. That could mean more carries from the more physical Javon Ringer.

The Titans defense didn’t allow more than 16 points in their first four games, but has surrendered 39.5 PPG the last two. The run defense has been particularly brutal the last two outings with 396 total yards on 5.28 yards per carry.

Tennessee hasn’t been this big a favorite since 2009. It’s 0-2 ATS as a favorite this year, beating Denver 17-14 as 7-point ‘chalk’ back in Week 3.

Indianapolis seems to be taking the ‘Suck for Luck’ campaign a little too seriously. That of course refers to Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, the surefire No. 1 pick in the draft who Indy would groom behind Peyton Manning. It’s not even definite Manning plays next year with his neck problem.

The Colts had at least been playing competitive football before last week. The prior five games were all decided by 10 points or less (2-3 ATS). However, they could be reaching a tipping-point after the Saints loss, especially with head coach Jim Caldwell likely on the chopping block at year end.

The ‘over’ is 6-0 in Indy’s last six games, but only one total was above 40 points. That was last week’s 49. It’s 29th in scoring offense (15.9 PPG) and last in scoring defense (32.1 PPG).

Quarterback Curtis Painter has a respectable 85.2 quarterback rating even after last week’s 38.1 (9-of-17 for 67 yards, no TDs and one pick). He’s not the type to lead a big comeback, so it’s important to get the running game going early and keep it close.

Running back Joseph Addai (hamstring) played briefly last week and he’s questionable Sunday. The Colts have two other decent backs in Delone Carter and Donald Brown. The offensive line continues to be hurting with Ryan Diem doubtful and Anthony Castonzo questionable with ankle injuries.

Indy has won 5-straight in this division rivalry, but failed to ‘cover’ the last two. The ‘under’ is 10-2 in the last 12, but all trends need to be taken lightly with Manning only able to watch now.

Nashville weather should be mostly sunny with temps reaching the 60s.

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Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest Week 7 Update

The Denver Broncos' amazing Week 7 comeback in Miami didn't just set off Tim Tebow-mania in the Mile High City, it also resulted in a change at the top of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest leaderboard.

Down 15-0 with just over five minutes to play, Tebow directed the Broncos (+1½) on a pair of scoring drives, including calling his own number on a two-point conversion to tie the game at the end of regulation. A Miami turnover just a few minutes into overtime gave Denver great field position, and Matt Prater booted home the winning 52-yard field goal.

The Denver win and cover was part of a 5-0 day for contestant Iced Tea who slipped ahead of Sans Souci for the lead in the LV Hilton SuperContest. Picks in the contest were more than 3:1 on the Broncos with 166 cards on Denver and 49 backing the Dolphins to finally break through with their first win of the 2011 campaign.

The most popular game among SuperContest players was the Chargers, Jets battle in East Rutherford, New Jersey. New York was receiving two points on its home field, with 145 contest entries taking the underdog Jets while 122 went with San Diego.

Rex Ryan's Jets didn't need the points in the end, pulling off a 27-21 victory thanks to 10 points in the final 8:41 of the matchup. Plaxico Burress made the most of his afternoon with three of his four pass receptions going for touchdowns.

Week 7's slate also included a pair of Super Bowl rematches that turned out to be not so super. A popular and evenly-picked game was the Super Bowl XLIII rematch in Arizona between the Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers (-3½). Ben Roethlisberger tossed three touchdown passes, one a franchise record 95-yarder to Mike Wallace, and the Steelers rolled to a 32-20 triumph.

There were 123 Hilton SuperContest players laying the points on Pittsburgh, with 115 taking the Cardinals.

In New Orleans, the Saints hosted the Indianapolis Colts in a rematch of Super Bowl XLIV, with 77 entries finding the Colts +14 too inviting to pass up despite their 0-6 mark entering the fracas. This one was over early with the Saints taking a 21-0 lead in the first quarter on their way to a 62-7 romp. Fifty-nine contestants came away winners behind the New Orleans rout.

The week's biggest upset occurred in the Monday Night Football tilt in Jacksonville where the Jaguars hosted the Baltimore Ravens (-7½). The game attracted 149 SuperContest players on the favored Ravens who proceeded to put forth one of the worst offensive efforts so far this season in a 12-7 loss to the Jags.

Jacksonville's Josh Scobee scored all 12 points for the Jaguars with four field goals, three outside of 50 yards, to help 42 contest entries to a dubya.

Here are the latest standings in the LV Hilton SuperContest:


STANDINGS PTS RECORD
Iced Tea 27.0
27-8-0

Sans Souci 26.0
25-8-2

Feral Child 25.0
24-9-2

Hello - Hello Hello 24.0
23-10-2

Sons of Ditka 24.0
23-10-2

SamsWins.com 24.0
23-10-2

Burl Ives 24.0
24-11-0

Five with 23.5


Four with 23.0


12 with 22.5


.

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Redskins And Bills Travel North To Toronto

The Buffalo Bills are unbeaten at home this season but will head North of the border to Canada on Sunday looking for their first win there when they host the Washington Redskins.

The Bills (4-2) are coming off their bye week and have dropped two of their last three games following a 3-0 start while the Redskins (3-3) have lost three of their past four. They are 0-3 in regular-season games played at Toronto’s Rogers Centre with two left on their five-game contract.

Game time is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. Buffalo opened as a 4-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen but has been bet up to -6 while the total has moved down from 46 to 45 ½.

The Bills are ranked No. 11 in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll and will be looking to rebound from a disappointing 27-24 road loss to the New York Giants in Week 6. This will be their third straight game against an NFC East opponent, and they have won the last five meetings with Washington both straight up and against the spread since losing Super Bowl XXVI, 37-24.

Buffalo is dealing with a number of key injuries though. The team lost linebacker Shawne Merriman for the season on Tuesday due to an Achilles injury and will also likely be without wide receiver Donald Jones (ankle), offensive tackle Demetrius Bell (shoulder) and defensive tackle Kyle Williams (foot).

The Bills have been winning game with their offense and will try to score 20 points or more in their seventh straight. They are averaging 31.3 points per game, which is third-best in the NFL.

The Redskins continue to tumble in the rankings and are tied with Carolina at No. 20 after losing on the road 33-20 to the Panthers last week. Quarterback John Beck made his first start for Washington in place of the ineffective and sick Rex Grossman, who lost his job due to his poor play but has been dealing with pneumonia.

Beck finished with 279 passing yards in his debut, although a good chunk came in the second half when the team was down 10 points or more.

Buffalo is not the only team in this game battling injuries, as Washington will be without leading receiver Santana Moss (broken hand) and running back Tim Hightower (torn ACL). The only good news for the Redskins is that Grossman was released from the hospital on Wednesday and should be available off the bench if needed.

This is the first meeting between the two clubs since Dec. 2007.

Sunday’s weather forecast for Toronto is expected to be partly cloudy with a high temperature of 51. None of that will matter though if the roof on the Rogers Centre is closed.

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Week 8 Preview: Chargers at Chiefs

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-2)

at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (3-3)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: San Diego -3, Total: 44

The Chiefs seek their fourth consecutive victory as AFC West foe San Diego visits Kansas City on Halloween night.

The Chargers haven’t been sharp en route to a 4-2 record, and one of their ugliest wins was at home against Kansas City in Week 3. The Chiefs came into the game reeling after two blowout losses, but hung around to the point that they had the ball in San Diego territory for a final drive in a 20-17 Chargers win. In Week 7, San Diego choked away a big lead against the Jets with a turnover-filled second half. Kansas City has gotten back on track with three straight wins thanks to an improved defense and QB Matt Cassel’s play going from disastrous to just slightly below mediocre. The Chargers have won seven of the past eight games in this series, and although they are just 4-4 ATS in these meetings, this small spread should not be difficult to cover. The pick here is SAN DIEGO.

This FoxSheets trend gives another reason to pick the Chargers:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game. (23-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 3*).

And this four-star FoxSheets coaching trend expects this game to be high-scoring and finish OVER the total.

Norv Turner is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) in road games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of SAN DIEGO. The average score was SAN DIEGO 29.7, OPPONENT 22.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Although the Chargers have scored at least 21 points in all six contests this year, they haven’t yet reached 30 points in any game. QB Philip Rivers has thrown for 286 YPG, but has more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7) this season. Although he’s 9-3 lifetime against K.C., his numbers haven’t been overwhelming: 233 passing YPG, 17 TD and 12 INT. San Diego’s ground game appeared to get back on track two games ago when it rushed for 206 yards at Denver, but the Jets held the team to 96 yards on 25 carries. Mike Tolbert rushed for a season-high 58 yards (5.3 YPC) against the Jets, but he could miss this game with hand and hamstring injuries. Fellow RB Ryan Mathews is also dinged up with a thumb injury and is coming off a season-low 39 yards on 13 carries. WR Vincent Jackson needs a big bounce-back game after being held to one catch by Darrelle Revis and the Jets, especially since the team’s No. 2 receiver, Malcom Floyd (hip) may not suit up on Monday night. TE Antonio Gates finally returned to action last week after missing three games with a foot injury. He caught five passes for 54 yards and a touchdown in the loss to New York, and has been a Chiefs killer over the years with 73 catches for 879 yards and 12 TD in 13 career games against the division rival.

On defense, San Diego has been very stingy in the passing game (176 YPG, 3rd in NFL), as the Patriots were the only team to tally more than 180 net passing yards against them. The run defense has been more generous (122 YPG, 21st in NFL), allowing an identical 162 rushing yards in each of the past two games. San Diego has only seven takeaways in six games this year.

The Chiefs have come a long way since they last faced San Diego in Week 3. They have been able to adjust to season-ending knee injuries to three of their best players (RB Jamaal Charles, S Eric Berry and TE Tony Moeaki), and put together a strong three-game run. Cassel threw for five touchdowns in wins over Minnesota and Indianapolis, but he had a brutal 38.3 QB rating last week in Oakland, completing 15-of-30 passes for 161 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT. WR Dwayne Bowe is having a huge season with 496 receiving yards and four touchdowns, including four catches for 67 yards and 1 TD against San Diego in Week 3. However, in his previous three meetings with the Chargers, Bowe had a meager four total catches for 27 yards and a score. RB Jackie Battle has really stepped up in his first real opportunity to shine in four seasons with the Chiefs. In his past two games, he has carried the ball 35 times for 195 yards (5.6 YPC). In his first three seasons in K.C., Battle had 41 carries for 118 yards (2.9 YPC).

The defense turned in quite a performance in last week’s 28-0 shutout in Oakland. K.C. defenders picked off six passes, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. However, the Chiefs have allowed 29.0 PPG to San Diego in the past five meetings, so they’ll need to create some more turnovers to keep the high-powered Chargers in check.

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Week 8 Preview: Redskins at Bills


WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-3)

vs. BUFFALO BILLS (4-2)


Rogers Centre - Toronto, Canada
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Buffalo -6, Total: 45.5

The banged-up Redskins travel north of the border when they meet the Bills in Toronto on Sunday afternoon.

The Redskins are in a transitional phase of the season, as QB John Beck is set to make his second start— they’re breaking in new starters on an injury-plagued offensive line and they’ll be without top receiver Santana Moss (hand), top rusher Tim Hightower (knee, IR) and TE Chris Cooley (finger). And the defense did not look good in giving up 407 yards to the Panthers in Week 7. The Bills have ridden an opportunistic offense to a fast start, but their revamped run defense could be in for a major challenge against the run-first Redskins. Buffalo has allowed at least 100 yards in each of its six games and is giving up 5.1 yards per carry this season. Middle-clogging NT Kyle Williams (foot) will also be missing from the Bills defensive line, giving further ammunition for WASHINGTON to cover the spread.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Redskins:

WASHINGTON is 57-35 ATS (62.0%, +18.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. The average score was WASHINGTON 17.7, OPPONENT 21.2.

Beck played pretty well in his first start, all things considered. He completed 60 percent of his passes for 279 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and he ran for another score. With Moss injured, Beck targeted WR Jabar Gaffney and TE Fred Davis eight times each and threw six passes to second-year WR Terrence Austin. With Hightower done for the season, the rushing workload falls on the shoulders of Ryan Torain and rookie Roy Helu. Torain ran for 135 yards at St. Louis to begin the month, but has only 12 carries for 17 yards in two games since. Helu gained 74 yards on 10 carries in Week 2 versus Arizona, but has a mere 17 carries for 57 yards (3.4 YPC) in his other five games.

The Redskins also have some injury concerns about two of their top defensive players. Safety Oshiomogho Atogwe (knee) and LB London Fletcher (hamstring) are both questionable to suit up on Sunday. This will not help a run defense that has surrendered 367 yards (4.9 YPC) in the past two weeks. Washington has defended the pass pretty well, ranking 11th in the league (218 YPG) and not allowing more than 250 passing yards in any of its six games this season.

The Bills have been involved in five consecutive games decided by a touchdown or less, winning three of those contests. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has a pedestrian 3 TD and 3 INT in his past three games, but has been extremely accurate in the past two weeks, completing 74% of his passes. RB Fred Jackson continues to be one of the most efficient offensive players in the entire league. He has 601 rushing yards and 6 TD, while adding 279 receiving yards. He’s averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has gained 364 total yards in his past two games alone.

Buffalo’s defense continues to give up boatloads of yards, ranking third-to-last in the NFL in both rushing defense (136 YPG) and in defending the pass (285 YPG). The Bills have stayed close in all these games by making big plays on defense. They have forced 16 turnovers, which ties Green Bay for the most in the league. The Redskins and Bills have played just five times since 1993, with Buffalo prevailing in all five meetings (both SU and ATS).