NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (10/25 - 10/29)

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 9

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 27

Game 105-106: Virginia at Miami (FL) (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 86.053; Miami (FL) 96.323
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 10 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 14; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+14); Under

Game 107-108: Rice at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 72.915; Houston 102.050
Dunkel Line: Houston by 29; 74
Vegas Line: Houston by 27; 70 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-27); Over


FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28

Game 109-110: BYU at TCU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 85.180; TCU 105.027
Dunkel Line: TCU by 20; 60
Vegas Line: TCU by 13; 56
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-13); Over


SATURDAY, OCTOBER 29

Game 111-112: Mississippi State at Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 90.627; Kentucky 82.002
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 10; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+10); Under

Game 113-114: UAB at Marshall (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 72.649; Marshall 77.707
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 5; 48
Vegas Line: Marshall by 6; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+6); Under

Game 115-116: Central Michigan at Akron (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 73.617; Akron 60.553
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 13; 56
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 7 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-7 1/2); Over

Game 117-118: Ball State at Western Michigan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 71.875; Western Michigan 85.753
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 14; 52
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 12; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (-12); Under

Game 119-120: Wake Forest at North Carolina (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 86.742; North Carolina 92.537
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 6; 56
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 7 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+7 1/2); Over

Game 121-122: North Carolina State at Florida State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina State 81.430; Florida State 102.802
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 21 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Florida State by 19; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-19); Under

Game 123-124: Clemson at Georgia Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 101.559; Georgia Tech 99.664
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 2; 66
Vegas Line: Clemson by 4; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+4); Over

Game 125-126: Iowa at Minnesota (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 91.263; Minnesota 69.255
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 22; 57
Vegas Line: Iowa by 15; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-15); Over

Game 127-128: Michigan State at Nebraska (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 97.064; Nebraska 101.620
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 4; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-4); Under

Game 129-130: Northwestern at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 83.989; Indiana 78.023
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 6; 64
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 9; 61
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+8); Over

Game 131-132: Purdue at Michigan (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 84.601; Michigan 103.377
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 19; 49
Vegas Line: Michigan by 13 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-13 1/2); Under

Game 133-134: Illinois at Penn State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 94.618; Penn State 96.111
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 1 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Penn State by 5 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+5 1/2); Over

Game 135-136: Virginia Tech at Duke (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 97.930; Duke 81.985
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 16; 51
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 15; 54
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-15); Under

Game 137-138: West Virgina at Rutgers (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 101.990; Rutgers 92.622
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 9 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 6 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-6 1/2); Over

Game 139-140: Syracuse at Louisville (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 80.352; Louisville 88.144
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 8; 41
Vegas Line: Louisville by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-3); Under

Game 141-142: Boston College at Maryland (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 82.407; Maryland 88.117
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Maryland by 7 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+7 1/2); Under

Game 143-144: Mississippi at Auburn (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 82.085; Auburn 99.081
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 17; 57
Vegas Line: Auburn by 12; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-10 1/2); Over

Game 145-146: Arkansas at Vanderbilt (12:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 103.390; Vanderbilt 90.244
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 13; 50
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 10; 52
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-10); Under

Game 147-148: Kansas at Texas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 73.966; Texas 104.176
Dunkel Line: Texas by 30; 68
Vegas Line: Texas by 28; 64
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-28); Over

Game 149-150: Bowling Green at Kent (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 72.759; Kent 70.890
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 2; 37
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 4; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kent (+4); Under

Game 151-152: Air Force at New Mexico (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 88.905; New Mexico 56.374
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 32 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: Air Force by 30 1/2; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-30 1/2); Over

Game 153-154: SMU at Tulsa (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 91.188; Tulsa 91.430
Dunkel Line: Even; 55
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 3; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (+3); Under

Game 155-156: Colorado at Arizona State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 77.294; Arizona State 105.730
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 28 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 31; 56
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+31); Over

Game 157-158: Tulane at East Carolina (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 54.188; East Carolina 79.836
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 25 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 16 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-16 1/2); Under

Game 159-160: Missouri at Texas A&M (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 99.180; Texas A&M 106.873
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 7 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 11 1/2; 62
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (+11 1/2); Over

Game 161-162: Iowa State at Texas Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 81.494; Texas Tech 105.291
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 24; 69
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 15; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-15); Over

Game 163-164: Buffalo at Miami (OH) (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 74.334; Miami (OH) 76.904
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 2 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 5; 48
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+5); Under

Game 165-166: Navy at Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 78.978; Notre Dame 107.246
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 28 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 20; 62
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-20); Under

Game 167-168: Florida vs. Georgia (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 93.436; Georgia 101.049
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 7 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Georgia by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-3); Over

Game 169-170: San Jose State at Louisiana Tech (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 78.596; Louisiana Tech 80.263
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 1 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 7 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+7 1/2); Over

Game 171-172: Memphis at Central Florida (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 54.579; Central Florida 89.816
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 35; 46
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 28 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-28 1/2); Under

Game 173-174: Hawaii at Idaho (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 83.908; Idaho 70.480
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 13 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 7; 56
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-7); Over

Game 175-176: Colorado State at UNLV (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 69.871; UNLV 69.177
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+3); Under

Game 177-178: Oregon State at Utah (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 82.284; Utah 95.988
Dunkel Line: Utah by 13 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Utah by 5; 47
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-5); Under

Game 179-180: California at UCLA (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 85.427; UCLA 88.674
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 3;
Vegas Line: California by 5; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+5);

Game 181-182: Arizona at Washington (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 93.820; Washington 96.032
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 67
Vegas Line: Washington by 5; 70 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+5); Under

Game 183-184: Washington State at Oregon (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 75.904; Oregon 119.620
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 43 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Oregon by 35; 69
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-35); Over

Game 185-186: South Carolina at Tennessee (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 96.114; Tennessee 99.100
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 41
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 4; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+4); Under

Game 187-188: Oklahoma at Kansas State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 120.723; Kansas State 101.294
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 19 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 13 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-13 1/2); Over

Game 189-190: Baylor at Oklahoma State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 92.227; Oklahoma State 113.411
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 21; 82
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 14; 79
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-14); Over

Game 191-192: Wisconsin at Ohio State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 105.723; Ohio State 102.229
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 3 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 7 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+7 1/2); Under

Game 193-194: Southern Mississippi at UTEP (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 103.042; UTEP 83.745
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 19 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 10; 57
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-10); Under

Game 195-196: Stanford at USC (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 112.084; USC 106.329
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 6; 62
Vegas Line: Stanford by 8; 60
Dunkel Pick: USC (+8); Over

Game 197-198: Nevada at New Mexico State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 87.326; New Mexico State 74.093
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 13; 66
Vegas Line: Nevada by 15; 59
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+15); Over

Game 199-200: Wyoming at San Diego State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 72.484; San Diego State 96.206
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 23 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 17 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-17 1/2); Under

Game 201-202: Western Kentucky at UL-Monroe (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 64.326; UL-Monroe 77.885
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 13 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 6; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (-6); Under

Game 203-204: North Texas at Arkansas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 70.359; Arkansas State 86.561
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 16; 55
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 17; 53
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+17); Over

Game 205-206: UL-Lafayette at Middle Tennessee State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 74.834; Middle Tennessee State 73.186
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 1 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 3; 60
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+3); Over

[Udog]

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we caught up with Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NCAAF live odds

Virginia at Miami -15.5 --->-13.5

Looks like this is yet another case of what have you done for me lately. The Hurricanes just drilled Georgia Tech 24-7 as a 2.5-point favorite while Virginia was spanked 28-14 at home by N.C. State, falling to 2-5 against the spread.

“This number came out slightly inflated based on Miami's big win over GT and UVA's home loss to NC State,” Fuhrman says. “These two teams are very inconsistent and typically alternate good efforts with clunkers so bettors saw value with the Wahoos above 14.”

Illinois at Penn State -6 ---> -4.5

Illinois has dropped two straight as a favorite and Penn State has covered only twice in its last 10 contests, so maybe it’s just a case of too many points with a pair of inconsistent teams squaring off.

“Did Illinois even leave Champaign last week? You wouldn’t know it by the level of effort they displayed,” Fuhrman says “Points could be at a premium in Happy Valley this week and when you talk about a total in the low 40's [currently 40.5] there's always going to be interest in betting a dog that can run the football.”

Baylor at Oklahoma State -16 ---> -14

Even though Oklahoma State has covered the number in each of its last six overall and in five straight meetings with Baylor, bettors aren’t buying the Cowboys. “Oklahoma State hasn't instilled bettors with a lot of confidence each of the past few weeks,” Fuhrman says. “Sharp money seems intent to bet against them again this week like they did against Missouri and Texas the week before. The Pokes’ wideouts are banged up and Baylor could have some surprises in store entering off a bye but this is still a Bears team with a Swiss cheese defense.”



NFL live odds

Washington at Buffalo -4 ---> -6

The Bills are coming off their bye week as they set out on their annual trip north of the border, while Washington only wishes it could erase last week from history considering all the injuries the Redskins picked up.

“Public money has poured in on Buffalo with all the injuries wreaking havoc on the Redskins offense,” Fuhrman says. “Washington lost Santana Moss, Tim Hightower, and Chris Cooley to major injuries and could find moving the football a challenge. However, I don't think the betting public is factoring in that this game will be played in Toronto and not at Ralph Wilson Stadium.”

Miami at New York Giants -9 ---> -10

The Giants are another club playing on the heels of their bye week and they couldn’t ask for a better matchup to ease back into action. Miami has yet to cover a pointspread this season.

“It's not going to take a lot for people to fade the Dolphins every week from here on out,” Fuhrman says. “The Fish will be a team we're going to struggle getting any public action on the rest of the season and until we inflate the price high enough, public money will fade them with reckless abandon.”

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Friday's game

TCU won its last three games vs BYU by combined score of 101-17, as Cougars lost last two visits to Fort Worth 31-3/32-7, but this game is at Cowboys' Stadium, TCU-friendly but not their home field. MWC home favorites are 5-3 vs spread so far this season. BYU is 13-9-1 in its last 23 games as a road underdog, 2-0 this year- their only road loss was by a point at Texas. Since '05, Horned Frogs are 23-10 as home favorite, 1-2 this year.


Saturday's best games

Wake Forest won three of last four visits to North Carolina; underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in their last five visits here. Single digit home favorites are 4-6 vs spread in ACC games. Since '01, Tar Heels are 11-22 as home favorites, 1-3 this year. Wake is just 4-11 in last 15 games as underdog on road- they've won five of last six games, with road wins at Boston College and Duke. UNC lost last two games, allowing 30-59 points.

Clemson is 7-0, covering all six lined games, with road wins at Virginia Tech (23-3), Maryland (56-45). Underdogs are 11-3 vs spread in last 14 Clemson-Georgia Tech games; Tech won six of last eight meetings, with three of last four decided by 5 or less points. Dogs covered Clemson's last five visits here, with Tigers losing last three, by 3-1-10 points. Tech lost last two games; they're 3-6 in last nine games as home dogs. Home dogs are 4-3-1 vs spread in ACC games this year.

Nebraska beat Michigan State 17-3 in an '03 bowl game in last meeting; Cornhuskers are 0-3 as home favorites this year, beating Fresno State by 13, Washington by 13, Ohio State by 7- they're 10-18 in last 28 games as a home favorite. Spartans are 6-5 as road underdog under D'Antonio, 1-1 this year, winning 10-7 at Ohio State, losing 31-13 at Notre Dame. Big 11 home favorites are 7-5 this season. All threee Nebraska home games went over the total.

Underdogs covered six of last nine Illinois-Penn State games, with Illini winning three of last four, but their 33-13 win here in last visit was their first in last five tries. Six of last seven series games were decided by 11+ points. Illini lost last two games after 6-0 start, scoring 7-14 points- they are 11-2 in last 13 games as road underdogs- this is first time they're dog this year. Penn State won its last six games (2-4 vs spread), giving up an average of 11.8 ppg. Under is 5-1-1 in Lion games this season.

West Virginia won its last 14 games vs Rutgers, with dogs covering five of last eight; Knights lost last seven meetings here, with three of seven by 7 or less points (4-3 vs spread). Big East home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread this season. Mountaineers' last four games (2-2) were all decided by 26+ points- they're 1-1 on road, winning 37-31 at Maryland, losing badly 49-23 at Syracuse in last game. Four of last six Rutgers tilts were decided by 3 or less points. Knights are 15-9 as a home underdog.

Underdogs covered eight of last nine SMU-Tulsa games, including last three played here; Mustangs won last two meetings 21-18/27-13, but are 1-3 in last four visits to Tulsa, losing by 6-7-19 points. Hurricane is 4-3, but all three losses were to Top 10 teams (Okla/Okla St/Boise); they're 15-17 in last 32 games as home favorites. SMU was held to 3 points last week at Southern Miss after scoring 40 ppg in three games before that-- they're 17-13-1 in last 31 games as a road underdog, 1-2 this year.

Underdogs covered five of last seven Mizzou-Texas A&M games, with Tigers winning four of last five (only loss 25-19). Missouri lost three of last four games; they're 5-6 in last 11 games as road underdogs, but 2-0 in 2011. Aggies scored 45-55-33 points in winning last three games; they're 9-5 in last 14 games as home favorite, 2-2 this season. Three of last four A&M games went over total. Big 12 home favorites are 5-3 vs spread.

Florida won 11 of its last 13 games vs Georgia, with average total 63.5 in last four meetings; now is the time for Dawgs, who won last five games, allowing 15.8 ppg in last four, while Gators lost last three, scoring total of 9 ppg with senior QB Brantley injured (he is expected back for this). Single digit favorites are 5-4 vs spread in SEC games this year. Florida's biggest problem might be that their defense hasn't forced a turnover in its last three games (-7). Four of last five Florida games went over the total.

Underdog is 11-2 vs spread in last 13 Arizona-Washington games, 7-0 in last seven meetings played here; Wildcats are 3-4 in last seven visits to Seattle, with all four losses by 4 or less points. Arizona already fired its coach; they've lost five of last six games, losing all three road games by 37-14/48-41/37-27 scores- they snapped 5-game skid with win last week over hideous UCLA team. Huskies got squashed by at Stanford, ending its 3-game win streak. Washington is 6-3 as home fave under Sarkisian.

South Carolina lost six of last seven visits to Tennessee, with only win 16-15 as 13-point dogs six years ago; in last 14 series games, Gamecocks are 1-2 as serieas favorite, but Tennessee is now playing freshman QB they wanted to redshirt this year. Vols lost last three games, losing last two games 38-7/37-6; they've failed to cover last seven games as a home underdog. Gamecocks are 2-4-1 as a favorite this year. Under is 3-0-1 in last four Tennessee games, 4-1 in last five Carolina games.

Oklahoma State won 13 of last 14 games against Baylor, winning five in row by average score of 47-16; Bears lost last seven visits here, last six by 27+ points (0-6 vs spread). State covered its last six games overall, scoring average of 48.6 ppg- they're an amazing +16 in turnovers in their last five games. All five of Baylor's lined games went over the total. Big 12 home favorites are 5-3 vs spread. Bears are 0-2 on road, losing 36-35 at Kansas State (-3.5), 55-28 at Texas A&M (+9.5).

Wisconsin is favored over Ohio State for first time in over a decade; how will Badgers react to brutal loss on Hail Mary in East Lansing last week? Wisconsin is 5-7-1 in last 13 games as road favorite- last week was first true road game this year for Badgers. Ohio State is 2-3 in last five games, but they upset Illinois in last game- they had last week off. Last three Wisconsin games went over the total; five of last seven Buckeye games stayed under the total. Underdogs are 6-4 in last ten series games.

Underdog is 5-2 vs spread in last seven Stanford-USC games; Cardinal won three of last four, winning 24-23/55-21 in last two visits here- they are 5-1 vs spread in last six visits here, and 3-1 as series favorite. Trojans scored 36.3 ppg in winning last three games, winning as 9.5-point dogs last week at Notre Dame. USC is 4-0 at home this year- they've covered last five games as a home underdog. Stanford has won/covered all seven games this season, winning road games by 30-27-30 points.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Friday, October 28

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BYU at TCU: What bettors need to know
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BYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs (-13.5, 56)

The Cougars and Horned Frogs keep their old Mountain West Conference rivalry alive, despite the fact that BYU is rolling solo as an independent and TCU is heading to the Big 12 or the Big East... errr, somewhere next season.

"I consider this like a conference game, we've played BYU for so long,” TCU head coach Gary Patterson told the Star-Telegram. “I'd rather not play a non-conference game in the middle of the season but this is the only time we could work it out."

The respective religious schools collide on the grand stage that is Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas Friday night.

LINE MOVES

The Horned Frogs opened as 11.5-point favorites, and that spread has been bet up to 13.5 – just below the key number of two touchdowns. The total opened at 56 points and has remained fairly steady.

DO OVER

Brigham Young has been looking forward to erasing a 31-3 beating from TCU since it walked off the field at Amon G. Carter Stadium last October.

The Cougars were demolished in that game, especially quarterback Jake Heaps, who threw two interceptions and was sacked three times. BYU put up only 14 yards of offense in the first half of that loss, finishing with 147 total yards on the day.

Heaps, who has continued to struggle, has been replaced by junior passer Riley Nelson, who head coach Bronco Mendenhall announced as the team’s starter again this week.

"I see the game going, and the rotation going, as it has been going. I like the direction of our team offensively," Mendenhall told the Salt Lake Tribune. "Again, if the team were to struggle, and if we weren’t able to move the ball and score points, Jake would come in and perform. But I like the chance for the quarterbacks to get into rhythm and to play, and until proven otherwise, we will go down the same road we have been traveling, with Riley."

Nelson has been impressive since taking over under center. He’s completed almost 62 percent of his passes, thrown for 11 touchdowns (to just three interceptions), and, since becoming the No. 1 three games ago, has yet to have a three-and-out, with BYU punting only twice in possessions started with Nelson at QB.

Nelson is also a dangerous option on the ground, rushing for 284 yards, including 62 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 56-3 beating of FCS Idaho State.

FROGGY STYLE

Texas Christian flexed its offensive muscle with a 69-0 thumping of New Mexico last weekend, putting up over 500 total yards of offense in the win.

The Horned Frogs rank eighth in the country in scoring, averaging almost 44 points a game. In the case of TCU, it’s true that speed kills. It boasts the 18th-best rushing attack in the nation and is tied for 11th for most yards per play with 6.6.

"With the style of offense that they run and the kind of athletes that they have, it's one of those games where you have to do your assignment," BYU senior linebacker Jordan Pendleton told the Daily Herald. "Playing Idaho State you could maybe screw up once or twice and someone else would make the play but against these guys your can't.”

The TCU rushing attack is anchored by running backs Waymon James and Matthew Tucker. James, the speedier of the two, is fourth in the MWC with 450 yards on the ground, while Tucker, the smash-mouth short-yardage back, is third in the league in touchdowns, rumbling for seven scores this season.

On the wings, TCU has perhaps the fastest receiving corps in college football. Josh Boyce, who runs a 10.4 100-meter dash, has reeled in 604 yards receiving and five TDs. His partner, Skye Dawson, is the current MWC 100-meter champ at a time of 10.2 seconds and has grabbed 27 balls for 268 yards and three scores.

Sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall is second in the conference in passing, with 1,566 yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. He threw for just 175 yards and two scores in the blowout over the Lobos last week.

NOT FORT WORTH IT

Despite the prestige of playing in one of the greatest stadiums on the planet, TCU isn’t crazy about having a home game moved to Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The Horned Frogs are insisting that this be their final game played inside Jerry Jones’ cutting-edge setting.

"I'd have 40,000 in purple instead of it being 50-50," Patterson told reporters about playing in Arlington. "That's why we won't play people in the Big 12 over at Cowboys Stadium, if I get any say. Because I'd rather have home-field advantage. As soon as you go into Cowboys Stadium you no longer have home-field advantage."

Last season, the Horned Frogs drew 46,138 fans to Cowboys Stadium for their season opener with Oregon State, winning 30-21 but failing to cover as 13.5-point chalk. Brigham Young took on Oklahoma at Cowboys Stadium in 2009, shocking the Sooners 14-13 as a 22.5-point pup in front of 75,437 fans.

Trends

* Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdog.
* Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Under is 13-3 in Cougars last 16 games as underdogs.
* Over is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last six games as favorites.


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[Udog]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 9

Rice Owls at Houston Cougars (-27.5, 70.5)

Why Rice will cover: The Owls scored 20 or more in all but one game (at Texas A&M), which means Houston would have to put up 50-plus to cover that spread.

Why Houston will cover: Houston has the top-ranked pass offense (442 ypg) and top-ranked scoring offense (49.3 ppg). Rice’s defense ranks in the bottom 25 in every category.

Points: The under has hit in Rice’s last three and in two of Houston’s last four games.

Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Wolverines (-13, 52.5)

Why Purdue will cover: The Boilermakers are led by a defense that doesn’t allow big plays, which is how the Wolverines have been winning.

Why Michigan will cover: The team has something to prove after the meltdown two weeks ago at Michigan State. The defense still ranks No. 8 in scoring (14.8 ppg). The home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 in this series.

Points: Both teams are led by defenses that bend but don’t break.

Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4, 49.5)

Why Michigan State will cover: The Spartans beat a Wisconsin team that spanked the Huskers earlier this season. MSU is 4-0 ATS recently and 8-2 in its last 10 against teams with a winning record, while NU is 2-5 ATS this season.

Why Nebraska will cover: Nebraska is a new team, outscoring Ohio State 28-7 in the second half of a win and rolling at Minnesota last week. The Huskers don’t lose often at home.

Points: With a Big Ten division title possibly in the balance, both teams are due for breakout offensive games.

Missouri Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (-11.5, 61.5)

Why Missouri will cover: Texas A&M ranks dead last against the pass, but if the defense is focused on stopping Mizzou’s 39th-ranked pass game, its 12th-ranked run game will get it.

Why Texas A&M will cover: The Aggies offense averages better than 40 ppg and the defense, while poor against the pass, is No. 5 against the run.

Points: The over is 4-3 for both teams, and both teams seem poised to put up yards.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores (+10, 52)

Why Arkansas will cover: Arkansas’ offense can go off at any moment. The team is 11-3 in its last 14 SEC games, while Vandy is 2-8 in its last 10.

Why Vanderbilt will cover: Vandy’s defense has been reliable, and the offense can run the ball and grind the clock if it gets a lead.

Points: If Vandy gets an early lead, the under could hit. If Arkansas comes out firing, the over is favorable.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Duke Blue Devils (+15, 53.5)

Why Virginia Tech will cover: The Hokies run the ball and stop the run for success. Duke won’t be able to run, and a one-dimensional offense isn’t going to get it done.

Why Duke will cover: Duke’s run defense is decent, and if the Devils get down, they have shown the ability to move the ball through the air.

Points: The under is 8-1-1 in Duke’s last 10 and 10-4-1 in Va. Tech’s last 15.

Washington State Cougars at Oregon Ducks (-36.5, 69)

Why Washington State will cover: That’s a monster spread for a BCS conference game. Especially against a WSU team ranking 10th in passing and 32nd in scoring (34 ppg).

Why Oregon will cover: The banged-up Ducks are getting healthier every week. Washington State can’t stop them, and the defense doesn’t allow big points.

Points: That’s a big total, but Oregon games have hit higher.

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats (13.5, 58.5)

Why Oklahoma will cover: The Sooners still have an ultra-explosive offense that ranks No. 4 in passing (379 ypg) and No. 7 in scoring (44.3 ppg). OU is 7-3 ATS against teams with a winning record.

Why Kansas State will cover: K-State is 6-0 ATS in its last six because its defense is solid at every level and QB Collin Klein has emerged as a hard-to-handle dual-threat.

Points: The over has hit in four of the last five for both teams.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6.5, 53.5)

Why West Virginia will cover: The Mountaineers average 374 yards with the pass. Rutgers’ offense, meanwhile, has been inconsistent at best.

Why Rutgers will cover: Rutgers’ defense has kept teams within distance; the team is 5-2 ATS this season. The Knights saw how Syracuse dismantled WVU last week.

Points: The over is 6-0 for West Virginia in its last six, but the under is 4-0 in Rutgers’ last four.

Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14, 79)

Why Baylor will cover: Baylor can score on anyone, averaging 549 ypg (No. 2). The defense isn’t great, but neither is OSU’s.

Why Oklahoma State will cover: OSU’s offense is third in yards, second in pass yards and second in scoring nationally. Baylor’s defense is in the bottom-third in every major category. The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Points: The over is 10-1 in Baylor’s last 11 in conference. There could easily be 1,000 yards of offense.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions (-4.5, 40.5)

Why Illinois will cover: While Penn State’s offense can’t do much, Illinois can run the ball well. PSU is just 2-6 ATS.

Why Penn State will cover: The Lions’ defense is in the top 20 in every category, including fifth in points allowed. Illinois’ offense has been shut down in the last two weeks.

Points: Both teams rely on stout defenses for success.

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-3, 49)

Why Florida will cover: The Gators are 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games (this one’s in Jacksonville). The defense has been stout, especially against the pass.

Why Georgia will cover: Florida will struggle to throw on Georgia, so if the Bulldogs can build a lead early, they might win handily.

Points: This game could be a grind-it-out slugfest.

Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils (-30.5, 56)

Why Colorado will cover: Colorado has struggled, but that’s a good-sized spread against an ASU team that isn’t necessarily lighting the world on fire.

Why Arizona State will cover: ASU’s numbers aren’t terrific, but it still ranks No. 31 in points scored and No. 36 in points allowed. Colorado simply can’t keep up.

Points: ASU piles up the points at home, but can it score enough knowing Colorado isn’t likely to help much?

Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-15, 66.5)

Why Iowa State will cover: The Cyclones have a balanced offense that can keep an undisciplined defense on edge. If ISU has a strength on defense, it’s defending the pass.

Why Texas Tech will cover: Confidence must be high after winning at Oklahoma last week. ISU won’t be able to keep up in a shootout. The Cyclones are 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.

Points: The over has hit in six straight for TTU and three of the last four for ISU.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers (3.5, 43.5)

Why South Carolina will cover: USC’s defense is No. 1 against the pass, and Tennessee can’t run the ball.

Why Tennessee will cover: After playing LSU and Alabama in the last two weeks, anything else will feel like a breather. Its defense has been decent against teams not named Alabama or LSU.

Points: The over is 12-4-1 in UT’s last 17 at home.

Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans (7, 60)

Why Stanford will cover: The Cardinal have covered every game this season, and this is the smallest spread for the squad that ranks No. 3 in scoring and No. 4 in scoring defense.

Why USC will cover: USC has shut down offenses not from Arizona or Arizona State, and has an offense led by a strong pass game that is never out of it. We’ll see what Stanford really has.

Points: If USC gets going offensively, the over could be hit by the end of the third quarter.

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes (7, 50.5)

Why Wisconsin will cover: Wisconsin wants to prove it can rebound from the Hail-Mary loss to Michigan State and has the horses to punish OSU. If Wisconsin gets ahead and OSU is forced to rally, the Buckeyes rank just 115th in passing. UW is 8-1 ATS in its last nine.

Why Ohio State will cover: The Buckeyes’ defense has no weaknesses, and if the run game can get established, anything can happen, especially at home.

Points: The under is 8-2 in OSU’s last 10, but the over is 4-0 in UW’s last four.

Southern Mississippi Eagles at UTEP Miners (10, 57)

Why Southern Miss will cover: The Eagles are balanced on both sides, ranking 21st in scoring offense and scoring defense. USM is 5-0 ATS in its last five.

Why UTEP will cover: If the Miners can get their ground game going, they have a chance to win SU. UTEP is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against teams with winning records.

Points: The under has been hitting for both teams.

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3.5, 63.5)

Why Clemson will cover: The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six and show no signs slowing offensively. Georgia Tech’s offense has been exposed in recent weeks. We’ll see if Clemson can take advantage.

Why Georgia Tech will cover: Georgia Tech can still run the rock, and Clemson ranks 76th at stopping it. Clemson’s main strength – passing – matches up well with Tech’s top defensive strength.

Points: The over is 7-2 in Clemson’s last nine and was 5-0 in GT’s first five before the under has it in the last three. Could see some major points scored.

[Udog]

Where the action is: NCAAF Week 9 line moves

It’s been a quiet week as far as lines moves go, but there are some adjustments attracting the eyes of oddsmakers. We talked to John Avello, executive director of race and sports operations at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas, about the biggest movers and shakers on the Week 9 college football board.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Akron Zips – Open: +10, Move: +7.5

Early money came in on the Zips, dropping the spread to just outside a touchdown. Avello says these MAC games can be tricky, with not a lot of action but some sharp wagers in play.

“It’s one of those MAC games where if the spread is tight, you’re going to get some action,” he says.

Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: -17.5, Move -22

Coming off a poor showing against USC, bettors are jumping all over the Irish expecting a motivated team in this revenge spot. Navy has won the last two games with Notre Dame and is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Avello thinks Brian Kelly will have his team whipped into shape and could see the spread climbing further by kickoff.

“We currently have 21.5, and I could see it going to 22,” he says. “But what’s to stop it there? If it goes to 22, it’ll likely go straight up to 23.”

South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers – Open: +7, Move +3.5

This is one of the tougher matchups to cap, with South Carolina missing Marcus Lattimore, and Tennessee freshman QB Justin Worley getting the start Saturday. Avello believes home-field advantage may be swaying the early money toward the Vols.

“The thing about this Tennessee team is, even though they are improved, they don’t know how to finish football games," Avello says.

Arizona Wildcats at Washington Huskies – Open: -8, Move -4.5

The Wildcats are coming off a big win over UCLA and have gone 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings with Washington. Avello has faith that Arizona can keep that momentum from last weekend.

“Arizona has always played tough when these two teams meet,” he says. “And in this type of Pac-12 game, the points are worth a look.”

[Udog]

NCAAF

Week 9

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College football betting weather report: Week 9
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It’s been a pretty tame October as far as weather is concerned. However, we may have spoke too soon.

There are some nasty forecasts in the cards for Week 9 of the college football season, and did someone mention the S-word? Check out how weather will impact your bets this weekend:

Central Michigan Chippewas at Akron Zips (+7.5, 50.5)

The forecast for Akron is calling for a 41 percent chance of rain and game-time temperatures in the low 40s.

North Carolina State Wolfpack at Florida State Seminoles (-18.5, 54)

Winds will reach speeds of up to 15 mph in Tallahassee, blowing north from corner to corner.

Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4, 49.5)

The forecast in Lincoln is calling for winds of speeds up to 15 mph, blowing south from end to end, for Saturday’s Big Ten battle.

Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Wolverines (-14, 53)

There is a 35 chance of thundershowers in Ann Arbor Saturday.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Duke Blue Devils (+14.5, 53)

There is an 88 percent chance of showers in Durham, with winds of up to 14 mph blowing WNW across the field.

Bowling Green Falcons at Kent State Golden Flashes (+3.5, 39.5)

The forecast in Kent is calling for a 41 percent chance of rain and game-time temperatures in the low 40s.

Ball State Cardinals at Western Michigan Broncos (-12, 58)

Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Waldo Stadium. There’s a 30 percent chance of showers with winds reaching speeds of 15 mph, blowing WNW across the field.

Boston College Eagles at Maryland Terrapins (-7, 50.5)

The only thing chillier than Terps fans’ comments about Randy Edsall is the weather in College Park. Snow is in the forecast, with a 100 percent chance of rain or white stuff. Winds will get up around 13 mph, blowing north from corner to corner at Capital One Field.

Tulane Green Wave at East Carolina Pirates (-17, 55)

Rain is in the forecast for Greenville, with a 65 percent chance of showers. However, skies are expected to clear around halftime, with wind reaching speeds of 15 mph and blowing WNW from end to end.

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5, 48.5)

There will be a 14-mph wind blowing through the World’s Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville Saturday. There is also a 24 percent chance of rain.

Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-21.5, 62.5)

Rain is in the forecast for South Bend, with a 20 percent chance of showers and gamer-time temperatures in the mid 40s.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions (-5.5, 38.5)

Happy Valley could be snowy valley with snow in the forecast Saturday. There’s a 100 percent chance of rain or flurries, with game-time temperatures in the mid 30s.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+6.5, 52)

Rain is expected to turn into snow midway through this Big East grudge match. There’s a 97 percent chance of precipitation and a cold north wind blowing of speeds up to 15 mph.

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats (+13.5, 58.5)

Winds will get up to speeds of 20 mph in Manhattan Saturday, blowing SSW from corner to corner.

Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14, 79)

Passing could be tough against the 15-mph winds in the forecast for Stillwater Saturday. Gust are expected to blow south across Boone Pickens Stadium.

SMU Mustangs at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-2.5, 58.5)

It’s no Golden Hurricane, but the forecast is calling for winds of up to 15 mph in Tulsa, blowing SSW from corner to corner.

Memphis Tigers at UCF Knights (-28.5, 48.5)

The forecast in Orlando is calling for a 36 percent chance of showers, clearing off towards the fourth quarter Saturday. Winds will blow north at speeds of up to 15 mph, from end to end.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 29

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Stanford at USC: What bettors need to know
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Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans (+7.5, 60)

THE STORY: Stanford has been on a roll and the No. 3 Cardinal face their biggest challenge thus far when they visit Southern Cal. Stanford boasts the nation’s longest winning streak at 15 games and has won each of its past 10 contests by 25 or more points. The Cardinal, who routed Washington 65-21 last week, are off to their best start since going 9-0 in 1951. The Trojans have won three consecutive games and won at Notre Dame last week. USC is 4-0 at home this season, but Stanford has won in its last two visits to the Los Angeles Coliseum.

TV: ABC (regional), ESPN3.com.

LINE MOVES: Stanford opened as a 8.5-point favorite but has been bet down to 7.5. The total opened around 60 points and has remained fairly steady.

ABOUT USC (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12 South, 4-3 ATS): Junior quarterback Matt Barkley and sophomore receiver Robert Woods seemingly play catch at will. Woods has 72 receptions for 902 yards through seven games and appears to be a shoo-in to break Keyshawn Johnson’s school-record 102 catches in 1995. Barkley has thrown for 2,006 yards and 19 touchdowns against only four interceptions. The Trojans rank 11th in rushing defense (91.1 yards per game) but only 104th in passing defense (265.1). Junior defensive end Nick Perry has a team-leading four sacks. Sophomore running back Dillon Baxter, the school’s top recruit two seasons ago, left the program earlier this week.

ABOUT STANFORD (7-0, 5-0 Pac-12 North, 7-0 ATS): So much for the offense being all Andrew Luck - the Cardinal set a school-record with 446 rushing yards in the rout of Washington as Luck threw for a season-low 169 yards. The probable No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL draft is having a fantastic season with 20 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Luck has completed 71.8 percent of his passes and Stanford ranks second in scoring offense at 48.6 points per game. Junior running back Stepfan Taylor has a team-best 697 rushing yards. Defensively, Stanford ranks fourth in scoring defense at 12.6 points per game and third in rushing defense (75.6). The Cardinal have 25 sacks, including a team-leading 5.5 from senior linebacker Chase Thomas.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. USC leads the series 59-27-3. Stanford won last year 37-35 on a last-second field goal.

2. Stanford has allowed two sacks, lowest in the nation.

3. Barkley passed for 390 yards against Stanford last season with Woods catching 12 passes for 224 yards.

TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Southern California.
* Over is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Southern California.
* Cardinal are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

PREDICTION: Stanford 30, USC 27 - Stanford proves to have just a tad more Luck by outlasting Barkley and the Trojans in an epic nationally televised showdown.


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