NFL Week 7

[roccodean]

Good luck. more plays and anaylsis to come.

1-5*

2* Indy +14 over NO

1* Jax over Balt
Going to wait on this one bc I think the line goes up

[Dat Boi E]

Good luck, Roc!

[roccodean]

Indy:
This line is inflated because of the common misconception that good teams bounce back after a favorite loss (New Orleans), but this is simply not true. In fact, NFL home favorites of more than 13 points are just 16-42-2 ATS the week after a loss, including 5-30-2 ATS after losing as a favorite. Primarily because the line is inflated in these games. My math system has the line at Saints -10. The Saints are also not the prolific team that they have been in recent years. Their pass game has been strong (6th in YPPA), but their rush game averages only 4.1 YPr (20th). Defensively, they are poor as they are almost dead last in rushing D (5.1 YPR, 29th in NFL) and 12th in YPPA. They have given up over 25 PPG versus teams that have averaged 22 PPG. Obviously, the Colts aren’t a powerhouse as they are 0-6, but they have been showing life as of late. There is also a great 52-21 ATS trend favoring the Colts based on their winless record. Take the Colts in this game!

Jax:
Baltimore is one of the best teams in the league, but they are in a poor scheduling position here. The Jags are off a road game, then have 3 consecutive road games next which puts them in a good position Monday night. Baltimore’s D is very good (3rd in pass and run), but their offense is overrated. They are average rushing (4.2 YPR, 16th) and passing (7.4 YPPA). The Jags struggle offensively, but have a solid defense allowing only 6.9 YPPA (9th) and they are 15th versus run. There is a great 104-63-2 ATS trend favoring the Jags based on Balt being a big road fav. Give me a big home dog with a solid D on Monday night anyday!

[Governor]

A couple ball checkers this week

good luck rocco

[LeRoy]

GL today Rocco

[Sirporkie]

thanks for the plays rocco

[roccodean]

A couple ball checkers this week

good luck rocco

LOL...youre right governor.

May add Minne

[roccodean]

1* Minne +11 over GB (bodog)
1* at +10 or higher
Have to take the line value in this game. The only reason this isn’t a 3* is because it’s Ponder’s first start. Barring pick 6’s Ponder can’t play worse than McNabb, so I don’t think it’s worth 3 points. Green Bay is overvalued because the public likes betting offenses and GB’s is good. But their D stinks, they are 16th versus the rush and 23rd versus the pass. Also, they have no rushing attack (27th in NFL). Minnesota is going to pound the run (3rd in NFL) and be able to stop the Pack (5th versus run and 17th versus pass). Minne is off a divisional blowout loss and bounce back here. I think Ponder gives them a spark in the locker room and I actually think they will compete for the straight up win in this game.

[kbsooner21]

Nice call on Minny and good luck on Jax! NO pissed tonight...

[roccodean]

Nice call on Minny and good luck on Jax! NO pissed tonight...

thanks sooner. Should have teased Indy to +56..LOL.

Officially 1* on Jax at +11 (bodog)

[baseballdave]

thanks sooner. Should have teased Indy to +56..LOL.

Officially 1* on Jax at +11 (bodog)

good luck tonight rocco !!!

[Sirporkie]

looking good

[roccodean]

thanks boys...week 8 looking pretty to!