NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (10/23 - 10/24)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Sunday, October 23 - Monday, October 24

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL odds: Opening line report Week 7

Who can figure out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

They couldn’t stop Alex Smith. They intercepted Drew Brees three times.

They took the worst beating in franchise history, then limped home without their star defensive tackle and leading rusher. So of course they promptly upset the Saints as 6-point underdogs.

With the 4-2 Bucs heading to London to face 3-3 Chicago, the line has been fluctuating as much as Tampa’s level of play. Both teams have been slight favorites depending on when you check. No one knows where it will land.

“Tampa is a tough team to get a read on,” Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook director John Avello told ***********. “It was the same last year when they had a good season. They’ll have a lot of good weeks but when they have a poor week, oh boy. Then they usually bounce back.

“I expected them to play well in San Francisco and they took a heckuva beating.”

Opinions vary widely on Tampa Bay, which leads the NFC West despite being picked behind the Saints and Falcons.

MGM Mirage’s Jeff Stoneback called the Buccaneers “decent.”

“They were 10-6 last year and it’s just a combination of being young and inconsistent, and maybe San Fran showed it’s the real deal,” Stoneback told ***********. “Sometimes a team plays a bad game, gets behind early and things just steamroll.”

Despite Sunday’s 26-20 win over New Orleans, handicapper Steve Merril rates Tampa Bay as “below average.”

“They were in a good situation, as they were coming off a blowout loss and caught the Saints in their third straight road game,” Merril said.

The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opened the Bucs as 1-point favorites, but that was before Chicago pounded Minnesota on Sunday night. Now Chicago is laying 1.

There are times, manager Jay Kornegay said, when “things don’t go the Bucs’ way and they just don’t perform. But you can’t just look at one or two weeks. You have to look at the whole picture.

“They’re never as bad as they seem or as good as they seem.”

Tampa isn’t the only tough team to get a read on.

The Steelers dominated Tennessee 38-17 in Week 5, easily covering as 3-point favorites. Then they sleepwalked through a 17-13 win over Jacksonville on Sunday, failing to cover 12.5.

“The Steelers appear to be suffering from the ‘Super Bowl loser’ syndrome,” Covers expert Marc Lawrence said. “That, and a beat-up offensive line, have done in a lot of teams.”

Pittsburgh has been up and down since getting blown out by Baltimore in the opener.

“They come back and look good against Tennessee, then they just plod through with Jacksonville,” Stoneback said. “They win, but you’re just waiting for them to break out and start dominating a few teams. They seem to play down to their competition.”

Pittsburgh is laying 3.5 at Arizona. The best thing you can say about the Cardinals is they’re rested.

Other inscrutable teams include Dallas and Philadelphia.

“Dallas is kind of confusing,” Kornegay said. “Their line of scrimmage play is really good sometimes. But they make a lot of bad mistakes. They’re just really inconsistent.

“The Eagles are another team that’s hard to get a grasp on,” he continued. “They’re talented. It’s just a matter of whether they’ll implode or not.”

BIGGEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at New Orleans (-14, 47.5)

The Saints are angry and coming home. The winless Colts are playing their second straight on the road.

“Two touchdowns seems like a lot because New Orleans lets teams stay in the game,” Avello said. “But I don’t know how that Indy offense keeps up with the New Orleans offense.”

Under Sean Payton, the Saints are 18-12 ATS coming off a loss and 14-9 ATS in non-conference games.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Chicago vs. Tampa Bay in London (1, 43), Washington at Carolina (-1.5, 44)

Redskins coach Mike Shanahan says he won’t choose between John Beck and Rex Grossman until Wednesday, and who can blame him? It’s not an appealing choice. Whoever gets the nod will play behind a line that just suffered two significant injuries.

Carolina (4-2 ATS) can only hope Cam Newton’s three-interception performance was a speedbump and not a sign defenses are catching up to the freakishly athletic rookie.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Atlanta at Detroit (-3.5, 48.5)

The Lions have played two straight unders after opening with four overs. Sunday’s 25-19 home loss to San Francisco barely stayed under the total of 45.

Look for the Falcons, who re-established their ground game Sunday, to try to run against a Lions defense that ranks 26th (129.5 yards per game). However, the over is 11-6-2 ATS in Atlanta’s last 19 conference games.

This is the biggest total because high-scoring teams like New England, Buffalo and the Giants are off.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Baltimore at Jacksonville (7.5, 38.5), Seattle at Cleveland (-3, 40)

The Ravens played over in every game until Sunday, when their 29-14 win over Houston stayed under by half a point.

But it’s hard to see the Jaguars mustering much offense in this matchup. They’re averaging 12 points and haven’t played a defense of this caliber. The Jags own a 1-5 O/U mark.

Seattle has a striking 14-6 O/U mark in road games since 2009 and the over is 20-9-1 when the Seahawks are underdogs.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 7

Indianapolis at New Orleans
The Saints look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as a home favorite. New Orleans is the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 18. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-14). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 23

Game 401-402: Chicago at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 134.620; Tampa Bay 135.034
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+2); Over

Game 403-404: Washington at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 128.130; Carolina 126.728
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Under

Game 405-406: San Diego at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.078; NY Jets 135.780
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+2 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Seattle at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 128.696; Cleveland 128.867
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over

Game 409-410: Houston at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 133.126; Tennessee 136.646
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3); Under

Game 411-412: Denver at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.197; Miami 127.396
Dunkel Line: Even; 45
Vegas Line: Miami by 2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2); Over

Game 413-414: Atlanta at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 132.312; Detroit 138.495
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6; 52
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3); Over

Game 415-416: Kansas City at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 126.774; Oakland 129.607
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 40
Vegas Line: Oakland by 4; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+4); Under

Game 417-418: Pittsburgh at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.727; Arizona 123.592
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12; 39
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: St. Louis at Dallas (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.259; Dallas 136.372
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 16; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 12; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-12); Over

Game 421-422: Green Bay at Minnesota (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.845; Minnesota 129.644
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 11; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-8); Under

Game 423-424: Indianapolis at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 124.147; New Orleans 142.386
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 18; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 14; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-14); Over


MONDAY, OCTOBER 24

Game 425-426: Baltimore at Jacksonville (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 142.579; Jacksonville 127.283
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 15 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-7 1/2); Over

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 7

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Sunday, October 23

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CHICAGO (3 - 3) vs. TAMPA BAY (4 - 2) - 10/23/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (3 - 2) at CAROLINA (1 - 5) - 10/23/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 1) at NY JETS (3 - 3) - 10/23/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (2 - 3) at CLEVELAND (2 - 3) - 10/23/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
SEATTLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-48 ATS (-28.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (3 - 3) at TENNESSEE (3 - 2) - 10/23/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
HOUSTON is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (1 - 4) at MIAMI (0 - 5) - 10/23/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 36-66 ATS (-36.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
MIAMI is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
MIAMI is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
MIAMI is 44-67 ATS (-29.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MIAMI is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (3 - 3) at DETROIT (5 - 1) - 10/23/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 3) at OAKLAND (4 - 2) - 10/23/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 25-56 ATS (-36.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (4 - 2) at ARIZONA (1 - 4) - 10/23/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 85-54 ATS (+25.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (0 - 5) at DALLAS (2 - 3) - 10/23/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 115-150 ATS (-50.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 115-150 ATS (-50.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 56-82 ATS (-34.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 59-86 ATS (-35.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 83-117 ATS (-45.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (6 - 0) at MINNESOTA (1 - 5) - 10/23/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 2) - 10/23/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-40 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 24

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BALTIMORE (4 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 5) - 10/24/2011, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 7

Sunday, 10/23/2011

CHICAGO vs. TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET - Wembley Stadium - London, England
CHICAGO: 18-5 Under as an underdog
TAMPA BAY: 8-1 ATS Away off SU win

WASHINGTON at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 12-4 Under on grass
CAROLINA: 9-0 Under as home favorite

SAN DIEGO at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 6-0 Over Away off SU win
NY JETS: n/a

SEATTLE at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 3-15 ATS as road underdog
CLEVELAND: 2-9 ATS in home games

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 0-6 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
TENNESSEE: 19-6 ATS as home favorite of 3 pts or less

DENVER at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 17-6 ATS off bye week
MIAMI: n/a

ATLANTA at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 25-44 ATS after scoring 30+
DETROIT: 16-4 ATS in all games

KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 17-32 ATS Away off BB SU wins
OAKLAND: 7-0 ATS vs. division

PITTSBURGH at ARIZONA, 4:05 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 1-6 ATS on turf
ARIZONA: 15-5 ATS at home off 3+ ATS losses

ST LOUIS at DALLAS, 4:15 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 11-3 Under in conference road games
DALLAS: 1-10 ATS as favorite

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA, 4:15 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 11-3 Under in road games
MINNESOTA: 9-0 ATS at home off loss by 21+

INDIANAPOLIS at NEW ORLEANS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
INDIANAPOLIS: 6-0 Over off BB losses
NEW ORLEANS: 2-10 ATS as double digit favorite


Monday, 10/24/2011

BALTIMORE at JACKSONVILLE, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
BALTIMORE: 14-3 Under off BB covers as favorite
JACKSONVILLE: 2-10 ATS after scoring 14 pts or less

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL


Week 7

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Trend Report
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Sunday, October 23

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. DETROIT
Atlanta is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Detroit's last 19 games
Detroit is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CAROLINA
Washington is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Washington is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Carolina's last 15 games at home

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. MIAMI
Denver is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Miami's last 18 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Seattle's last 16 games
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. TAMPA BAY
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. TENNESSEE
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Tennessee is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games

4:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. ARIZONA
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Oakland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Kansas City

4:15 PM
GREEN BAY vs. MINNESOTA
Green Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

4:15 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. DALLAS
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas's last 18 games

8:20 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NEW ORLEANS
Indianapolis is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


Monday, October 24

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Baltimore is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we chatted up Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NCAAF

Rutgers at Louisville +1.5 ---> -2

Rutgers heads into this one riding a 5-1 run both against the spread and straight up, but the team's lone loss was on the road at North Carolina. Meanwhile, Louisville has dropped three straight but has covered in three of its last four.

"This is a Louisville team which drew a ton of wiseguy action last week against Cincinnati and it looks to be more of the same this week," Fuhrman says. "The Cardinal have shown steady improvement this year and the university has shown faith in Charlie Strong by adding seven years to his deal. Rutgers has been a pleasant surprise but I'm not sure they were ready to be road chalk."

Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan +14 ---> +12

Western Michigan was tearing through pointspreads until meeting up with Northern Illinois last week, taking a 51-22 beating as a 1.5-point underdog. Eastern Michigan is just coming off an outright upset victory at Central Michigan as an 11-point underdog.

"Western Michigan limped to the finish last week against NIU and bettors seem to think this may continue Saturday," Fuhrman says. "Eastern Michigan has quietly surprised behind the strength of their run-based offense. Their ability to shorten games is a huge advantage when you're catching double digits at home."

Utah at California -2.5 ---> -1.5 ---> -3

Who knows what Utah is going to show this week? The Utes are 3-9 against the number in their last 12 but showed some moxie last week at Pitt.

"Utah is one of the tougher teams to figure out for bettors and bookies alike," Fuhrman says. "The team responded well last week at Pittsburgh with news QB Jordan Wynn would be lost for the year but it was their defense, not offense, that got the job done. Cal was a huge disappointment last Thursday hosting USC so expect coach Tedford to expect a much better effort with the extra prep time."


NFL

San Diego at New York Jets -1.5 --->+1

So are the Jets really this bad to see this type of movement against a Chargers team that is just 2-6-1 in its last nine games as a road favorite. The Chargers are only 1-5 against the number in the last six meetings between these two clubs.

"In my opinion this is one of the market's biggest over reactions to a sluggish Jets performance on Monday," Fuhrman says. "Sanchez is a streaky QB who needs confidence to be successful and looked to find his stride in the second half. However, the Chargers come in rested off a bye and may get Antonio Gates back this week. This could be one of the most heavily bet games of the weekend and I can make strong cases for both sides."

St. Louis at Dallas -10.5 --->-12.5

This one's pretty obvious - nobody wants to bet St. Louis and probably rightfully so.

"This number climbed amid speculation that Sam Bradford might not start for the Rams but as of today he's been upgraded to probable," Fuhrman says. "Right now it's been downright impossible to find people willing to bet St Louis so this week will be no different. My biggest question is can the Rams outscore their baseball brethren Cardinals this week since they couldn't last Sunday?"

Denver at Miami -3 ---> -1.5

Has Tim Tebow mania gotten the better of oddsmakers or does everybody just hate the Dolphins? Maybe both.

"Another knee-jerk reaction from the market given how bad the Dolphins looked against the Jets," Fuhrman says. "The Broncos suddenly have quite a buzz around them with Tebow under center and may trend upward over the back half of their season while Miami appears content to play out the stretch and focus on the future with a little Luck."

Chicago at Tampa Bay over/under 42 ---> 44

Every year the NFL sends a game to Europe and every year we see that game's line on the move. So far the spread is holding steady around Tampa Bay +1, but there has been some movement on the total.

" The biggest question betting a total for the annual NFL in London event is field conditions," Fuhrman says. "We've seen the traditional soccer stadium have problems in the past holding up in the trenches because of excessive rain. Hard to decipher this line move given both teams come into this game fresh off their most complete efforts of the season against divisional rivals."

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 7

Bears (3-3) vs Buccaneers (4-2) (London)—Bears scored 30-34-39 points in their three wins, with a TD on defense or special teams in all three games- they scored 13-17-13 in losses. Bucs were outscored 41-3 in first half of their two road games this season- five of their six games were decided by 7 or less points. Chicago is 10-4-1 vs number in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points; Tampa Bay is 3-7-2 in its last 12. Teams used to be division rivals; Bucs are 3-2 in series since then, with last three meetings all decided by 3 points, the last two going OT. Bucs are 19-13 vs spread in game following their last 32 wins; Bears are 7-6 after their last 13 wins, but 0-2 this year. NFC North teams are 10-6 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South teams are 8-8. Bears are 3-6 in last nine pre-bye games (2-4 last six as pre-bye favorite); Bucs lost 35-7/38-13 in last two pre-bye games (2-7 last nine as pre-bye dog).

Redskins (3-2) @ Panthers (1-5) – Who gets starting nod at QB for Washington after Grossman’s 9-22, 4-INT nightmare Sunday? Carolina allowed 28+ points in all five losses; their only win came on rainy day here, only game they’ve been favored to win this year. Panthers are 7-3-1 vs spread last 11 times they were favored by 3 or less points; their defense is having trouble getting off field- opponents converted 19 of last 28 3rd down plays. Home side won last six series games, with Redskins losing 20-17/20-17 in last two visits here, their only losses in nine series games (eight of nine decided by 4 or less points). Carolina lost 21-7/23-6 in last two pre-bye games- they’re 0-5-1 as a pre-bye favorite. NFC East road teams are 5-2-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South home teams are 5-3, home favorites 3-2. Last four Washington games stayed under total, with totals of 34-27 in two road games; four of six Panther games went over.

Seahawks (2-3) @ Browns (2-3)—Mike Holmgren runs the Browns now; he ran Seahawk franchise for long time before that, so this game probably has little extra in it for Cleveland. Seattle is 7-20 vs spread in its last 27 games as road dog (3-7 if road dog of 3 or less points), 5-17 in its last 22 post-bye games- they covered last three games as an underdog, after losing first two games by combined score of 57-17. Hawks came east and upset the Giants before the bye- they have seven takeaways in their two wins (+3), none in three losses (-5). Browns scored 17-13-17 points in last three games, needing last-minute TD to beat the dreadful Dolphins; they’re 7-12-1 vs spread in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points. Cleveland has been outrushed in every game, by average of 50.2 yards- they’re 2-9 in last 11 games as home favorite, 0-3 this season. 6.0/5.4/5.1/4.3. Seattle won two of three series games, but teams last met in ’07.

Chargers (4-1) @ Jets (3-3)--- Jets are 0-3 vs teams with winning records, giving up 30+ points in all three games, but all three were on road; offense has total of 405 yards last two weeks, converting just 7 of 26 on third down, so huge edge at QB for San Diego, which has held four of five opponents to 275 or less total yards (Patriots gained 504 against Bolts). Lot of subplots here, with Tomlinson going against old team and Schottenheimer coaching against team his dad used to coach—Chargers fired Marty despite his almost taking them to Super Bowl. San Diego won six of last eight post-bye games, covering three of last four as post-bye dog. Gang Green won last meeting 17-14 at San Diego in ’09 playoffs; they’ve won four of last six series meetings, with two of four wins in playoff games. Jets are 4-8-1 in last 13 games as favorite of 3 or less points, San Diego allowed 17 or less points in all three home games, but allowed 35-24 in two games on foreign soil.

Texans (3-3) @ Titans (3-2)—Big game for sliding Houston club that lost three of last four games and has been outscored in second half of every game this year (total of 72-37 in last four games); loss of stars on both sides of ball (WR Johnson/DE Williams) proved critical in winnable game at Baltimore last week. Favorite covered all three Houston road games; Texans are 0-2 as road dog, losing 40-33 at Saints (+4), 29-14 (+7) at Baltimore. Tennessee gave up 14 or less points in each of its three wins, 16-38 in its losses- they’ve already beaten Ravens/Broncos at home, allowing 13-14 points. Houston is 3-2 in last five series games, after having been 2-11 in first 13 meetings; Texans lost seven of nine visits here, with five of seven losses by 7+ points. Houston has been lost three of last four games, Tennessee is 6-3 in last nine games as divisional home favorite- they won four of last five post-bye games. Five of six Houston games stayed under the total.

Broncos (1-4) @ Dolphins (0-5)—Miami is incredible 6-29 vs spread in last 35 games as home favorite; they’re honoring 2008 Florida Gators here, team whose starting QB was Tebow, who gets his 4th career NFL start here for struggling Denver, which is 0-7 in Miami, with five of seven losses by 10+ points. Fish are 0-2 at home, losing by 14-10 points; 0-5 teams don’t have much of home field edge, especially when opposing QB is college hero from that area. Broncos allowed 22-17 points in its wins, 23-49-29 in losses- Miami hasn’t scored more than 16 points in any of its last four games. Broncos are 3-6 in last nine games as home favorite, 1-1 this year (14-17 at Tennessee, 49-23 at Green Bay). Dolphins are favored for first time this season. Denver is 16-5 in its last 21 post-bye games; Fox was 5-1 in his last six post-bye games with Carolina. Four of five Denver games went over; last four Miami games stayed under.

Falcons (3-3) @ Lions (5-1)—Falcons have gone LWLWLW so far this year; they scored 30+ points in their wins, 12-13-14 in losses. Since 2008, they’re 6-7 as road underdogs. Detroit allowed 23+ points in three of last four games, and trailed all four at halftime. Atlanta is 1-2 on road, winning at Seattle, losing at Chicago/Tampa. Third straight home game for Lions, who were outrushed 203-66 last week and converted only 2 of 15 third down plays- they’re 26-31-2 in game following their last 59 losses. Falcons are 28-31-1 vs spread in game following their last 60 wins. Detroit is 6-4-1 in last 11 games as single digit favorite. Atlanta is 4-3 in last seven series games, after being 6-20 at one point; they’re 4-15 in Motor City, but this is their first visit since ’06. Three of Falcons’ last four games stayed under total. NFC South road teams are 3-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. N FC North home favorites are 5-3.

Chiefs (2-3) @ Raiders (4-2)—Oakland lost QB Campbell (collarbone) for season last week, traded for Carson Palmer Wednesday, which leaves Boller as starter for this game; he’s not good. Raiders are 5-2 in last seven series games, with three of five wins by 3 points- their OT win here LY was first time KC lost in last eight visits, and first time Oakland swept season series since ‘01. KC won last two games after 0-3 start, scoring 22-28 points vs Vikings/Colts (combined record, 1-11). Silver/Black allowed 38-31 points in only two losses (Bills/Patriots, combined record, 9-3); they’re just 3-10 in last 13 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year. You’re reading ***************.com. Chiefs lost last four post-bye games, with three losses by 11+ points. Raiders are 7-4 in last 11 pre-bye games- this is first time since ’05 they’re favored in pre-bye game (2-3 last five). Last three Oakland games stayed under the total; average total in last ten series games, 31.5.

Steelers (4-2) @ Cardinals (1-4)—When Pittsburgh hired Tomlin as coach, they passed over Steeler assistants Whisenhunt/Grimm, who went on to desert, where they won NFC in ’08 but lost Super Bowl in last minute to Steelers; this is their first meeting since. Cardinals lost last four games, three by four or less points- favorites covered Arizona’s last six post-bye games; Redbirds lost four of last five (0-4 as post-bye dog). Steelers are 1-2 on road, scoring 7-10 points in losses at Ravens/Texans, and slogging thru 23-20 win at Manning-less indy (trailed 13-10 at half). Pitt has only two takeaways this season, with an amazing (for a 4-2 team) minus-11 turnover ratio. Steelers are 11-17 in last 28 games as road favorites; Arizona is 9-4 in last 13 games as a home underdog. Redbirds are 1-1 at home, getting hosed by terrible non-fumble call at end of 31-27 loss to Giants. Three of last four Cardinal games stayed under total. NFC West underdogs are 6-9-1 vs spread in non-division games, 1-4-1 at home.

Rams (0-5) @ Cowboys (2-3)—Sad-sack St Louis been outscored 86-9 in first half of last four games; they’ve got guys coming in off street and starting at CB. Only one of their five losses was by less than 12 points- they’re 6-7 vs spread in last 13 games as double digit dog. Last 11 Dallas games were decided by 4 or less points- Pokes’ only wins this year were by 3-2 points; they’re 1-9-1 vs spread in last 11 games as a favorite, 4-8 in last dozen games as double digit fave. Addition of WR Lloyd should help St Louis offense right away, since he played for McDaniels last two years in Denver. NFC East home favorites are 1-5 vs spread in non-division games; NFC West underdogs are 6-9-1, 5-5 on foreign soil. Home team lost six of last eight series games, with Rams winning four of last five visits here, but impossible to endorse visitors until they at least compete for an entire 60-minute game.

Packers (6-0) @ Vikings (1-5)—Green Bay is 7-3 in last ten series games, winning 28-24/31-3 in LY’s series; average total in last five series games is 51.6, but just 44.3 in last five in Metrodome (Pack 5-3 in last eight visits). Rookie QB Ponder gets start for Vikings after dreadful 39-10 loss last week in Chicago; McNabb looks washed-up, so might as well find out if the kid can play. Minnesota is 1-5, but with only one loss by more than seven points; they’re 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as home underdog. Packers coasted last week, are 5-1 vs spread this year, 8-5 in last 13 games as road favorite- their only non-cover this year was at Carolina, when Panthers covered thru back door late. League-wide, home underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in divisional games this season, but Vikings have been outscored in second half of every game this year (outscored by total of 100-29). Packers are 4-0-1 vs spread in last five games as pre-bye favorite.

Colts (0-6) @ Saints (4-2)—First series meeting since New Orleans won improbable Super Bowl title two years ago; this game was put in primetime because Peyton Manning is from Crescent City, but he ain’t playing- winless Colts are 1-2 as road dogs, losing at Houston (7-34, +8.5), Tampa (17-24, +10), Cincinnati (17-27, +7). Indy has actually been very competitive in every game but the opener, but they’ve worn down in second half, outscored 71-34 in second half of last five games. Saints are 13-9-1 vs spread in last 23 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year, beating Texans (40-33)/Bears (30-13). Payton had broken leg/torn MCL operated on Monday, will call plays from press box, but he also missed two days of game-planning NFC south home teams are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South underdogs are 5-8, 3-6 on road. Four of Colts’ last five games stayed under total. Red flag for Saints are four takeaways in six games- they haven’t had a game yet with 2+ takeaways.

Ravens (4-1) @ Jaguars (1-5)—Bully Ravens (four wins this year by 15+ points) against rookie QB playing on team that lost last five games, with three of five losses by 10+ points. Baltimore is 7-1 in last eight series games after losing first eight to expansion Jags- they’re still just 2-5 in last seven visits here, with last win 10 years ago, and over last decade are just 5-10 as non-divisional road favorite. Ravens have superior record in game after bye, but last four years, they lost second game after the bye. Jags scored 13 or less points in four of five losses (five TD’s, 26 3/outs on 58 drives); they’re 10-19 vs spread in game after their last 29 losses. Ravens are 23-17-2 vs spread in game after their last 42 wins. Baltimore is allowing 76.6 rushing yards/game, held last three foes to 3.6./3.0/4.9 yards/pass attempt. Jaguars have been held under 4.0 ypa in three of last five games. Five of six Jacksonville games stayed under total; four of five Raven games went over, with Baltimore scoring 35-37-34-29 in its wins.

[Udog]

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 7

The NFL likes to claim it’s all about parity. Well, in Week 7, here’s what we’ve got: Not a single contest featuring two winning teams. To the games we go:

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Why Texans cover: Squad desperate not just for cover, but SU win, having dropped three of last four straight up and against the spread. With Colts minus Peyton Manning, Houston should be running away with weak AFC South, but isn’t. Now a good time to get moving, against first-place Titans.

Why Titans cover: Good bounce-back bet, having won SU and ATS last four in that spot. More noteworthy, though, Houston’s ATS slides of 1-5 on road, 0-5 getting points and 1-4 coming off bye. Plus Pro Bowl WR Andre Johnson is still out for Texans.

Total (44.5): Under 9-2 in Tennessee’s last 11 AFC South contests, but in this rivalry, total has gone high five straight in Nashville and seven of 10 overall.

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-1)

Why Broncos cover: Coming off bye, and hoping for emotional boost of QB Tim Tebow making first NFL start. There will be a large contingent rooting for the former Heisman winner because the Dolphins decided to honor the 2009 BCS champion Gators at halftime, which means there’ll be more Tebow supports than Miami fans in the stands.

Why Dolphins cover: Dying for win, and defense licking chops to get shot at polarizing Tebow. Broncos in 16-33-3 ATS rut vs. losing teams, and have failed to cash last six in this rivalry. Denver also traded away its best receiver (Brandon Lloyd) this week.

Total (43): Broncos play to over 20 of last 26 overall, but Fish have gone under last four in row.

Chicago Bears (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why Bears cover: Jay Cutler and Matt Forte seem to have found a spark in rout of Minnesota, moving to 4-1 ATS last five as chalk. Bucs in ATS ruts of 6-17 on home turf and 3-13 as home underdog.

Why Buccaneers cover: Lots of confidence after outright home win as underdog vs. Saints. In fact, Raheem Morris’ troops 7-2 ATS last nine catching points.

Total (44): Under 7-2 in Bears’ last nine on highway.

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-3)

Why Redskins cover: Should be irritated at being ‘dog against team that’s just 1-5 SU. Washington cashed last four on road, 5-1-1 ATS last seven getting points and 8-2-1 ATS last 11 as road pup. Underdog has beaten oddsmakers in nine straight Redskins-Panthers affairs.

Why Panthers cover: Despite SU mark, playing reasonably well behind rookie QB Cam Newton, hence the favorite status vs. Washington team making QB change this week from Rex Grossman to John Beck. Carolina cashed last four at home.

Total (42.5): Carolina 16-5 to the under last 21 as favorite, and Washington on under surges of 4-0 overall, 5-1 on road and 8-2 getting points.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Why Falcons cover: Resurgence of RB Michael Turner, who torched Carolina for 139 yards and two TDs last week. Turner could help keep heat off QB Matt Ryan from Lions’ relentless defensive line. Word is Atlanta coach Mike Smith really likes dishing out hearty, shove-laden postgame handshakes.

Why Lions cover: Last week’s letdown notwithstanding, Detroit among hottest teams in league SU and at betting window, with ATS runs of 9-1-1 overall, 13-3-1 inside NFC and 5-1 at home. Atlanta is 0-3 ATS on the road this season.

Total (47): Both teams trend high, with over 6-1-1 in Atlanta’s last eight roadies and 13-5-1 in Detroit’s last 19 overall.

Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Why Seahawks cover: Seattle, coming off bye, rarely goes to Eastern Time Zone and comes back with win or cover, yet did just that against Giants in Week 5. Have cashed three straight. Browns just 1-7-1 ATS last nine and have gone nearly a season’s worth of home games without covering (0-6-1 ATS).

Why Browns cover: Seattle is still Seattle, with shaky QB situation at best; starter Tarvaris Jackson injured (plus, he’s Tarvaris Jackson), and backup Charlie Whitehurst doesn’t inspire. Seahawks on ATS slides of 6-18 after SU win and 5-11 after spread-cover.

Total (41): Both teams averaging less than 19 ppg. Still, over on 13-3 spree for Seattle.

San Diego Chargers (-1) at New York Jets

Why Chargers cover: Jets not striking fear in anyone right now, and San Diego’s long trip to East Coast not nearly as problematic coming off bye week.

Why Jets cover: Bolts just 2-6-1 ATS last seven as road chalk, and New York fares well as short underdog, at 6-1 ATS last seven catching three points or less. Jets solid in this rivalry, too, cashing five of last six vs. Chargers.

Total (43.5): Lots of reasons to look at over. Norv Turner’s troops on over stretches of 28-11-4 in roadies and 18-6-2 as road favorite, and total has gone high in 22 of Jets’ last 30 overall.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-4)

Why Chiefs cover: Raiders have to go with new QB this week, whether it’s Kyle Boller or newly acquired Carson Palmer. Chiefs, meanwhile, have cashed three straight and are 7-1 ATS last eight trips to Coliseum.

Why Raiders cover: Even with new QB, they can control game by running all day long behind Darren McFadden – team averaging 160 rushing ypg, second-best in NFL. Tied for second-best ATS mark in league this year, at 5-1, and have bagged cash last eight AFC West contests.

Total (41.5): Ten of last 12 Chiefs-Raiders tilts have gone low, including five of last six in Oakland.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Why Steelers cover: Coach Mike Tomlin knows how to take advantage of bye week, with Pittsburgh cashing five straight in that spot, and Steelers 5-1 ATS last six coming off non-cover. Cards 6-14 ATS last 20 overall.

Why Cardinals cover: Steelers fell short against number last four on highway, and Arizona has covered 10 of last 14 as a home pup.

Total (42.5): Over 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last seven as road chalk and 12-4 in Arizona’s last 16 as home ‘dog.

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)

Why Rams cover: Tough to say. Perhaps another instance of traffic officer at scene of wreck, saying, “Move along. Nothing to see here.” Still, St. Louis 6-2 ATS last eight vs. losing teams, and Dallas 1-9-1 ATS last 11 as chalk.

Why Cowboys cover: Talent far better than record, and at some point, that’s got to show up. Cowboys had host Patriots on ropes last week, barely losing SU while winning ATS. Should fare much better against most pathetic scoring team in league, with Rams netting just 9.8 ppg.

Total (43.5): If Rams’ scoring struggles continue, it’s all on Cowboys to get past this number – and they just might. Over a stout 10-1 in Dallas’ last 11 home games.

Green Bay Packers (-9) at Minnesota Vikings

Why Packers cover: Because that’s what they do – win and cover. At home, on road, in playoffs, you name it. Unbeaten SU and 5-1 ATS this season, after perfect 4-0 SU and ATS run through Super Bowl last year. QB Aaron Rodgers seemingly unstoppable. And Vikes plan to toss rookie QB Christian Ponder to wolves this week, yanking ineffective vet Donovan McNabb.

Why Vikings cover: Ponder can’t be worse than McNabb and could provide a spark. Adrian Peterson likely needs to have field day for floundering Vikes to hang around.

Total (46.5): Numbers bend all directions. Pack leads league at 32.8 ppg, but under 11-3 in Green Bay’s last 14 roadies. In this rivalry, over 5-1 last six overall and 8-2-1 last 11 in Minnesota.

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-14)

Why Colts cover: Boy, did this game look lots better a couple months ago. Winless Indy still minus superstar QB Peyton Manning, but playing a little better, and Colts 10-2 ATS last dozen getting more than 10 points. Saints 2-10 ATS last dozen vs. losing teams.

Why Saints cover: No denying Drew Brees and Co. can still score plenty (29.5 ppg, sixth). New Orleans has cashed five of last six at home (all as chalk, no surprise), and Sean Payton’s squad generally breaks a leg in bounceback spots – 15-5 ATS last 20 coming off SU loss.

Total (48.5): If Colts are playing, even without Manning, over still very much in play. Last five Indy games have gone high, and Colts sport additional over streaks of 13-3 on highway and 7-0-1 after SU loss (plenty of those lately).

Baltimore Ravens (-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Why Ravens cover: Defense already No. 1 in league, yielding just 14.2 ppg, and now faces one of most inept offenses, with Jags scoring just 12 ppg (31st) behind rookie QB Blaine Gabbert. And Monday night spotlight a dichotomy: Baltimore 5-1 ATS last six, Jacksonville 2-7 ATS last nine.

Why Jaguars cover: Best that can be said: Home team 4-0-1 ATS last five in this rivalry.

Total (39.5): Over 5-1 in Ravens’ last six, but low-scoring Jags on under streaks of 5-1 overall and 5-0 on Monday night.

[Udog]

NFL


Week 7

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NFL Total Bias: Week 7 over/under picks
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Patience doesn’t come easy in the world of pro football, or football gambling for that matter.

This week the Oakland Raiders gave us yet another perfect example of a team that at the first sign of success it has seen in years, put its future on the line to make a run of it this season.

A chance, because at this point, nobody really knows what Carson Palmer is. He could be a complete bust; he could lead the club to the playoffs.

I like the Raiders this season. They have a ton of potential with that backfield and they don’t really need their quarterback to do a whole lot in comparison to other teams in the league.

But as soon as I heard about the deal I instantly wondered whether the Packers (or the Patriots, Saints, Steelers or a handful of other teams) would have made the same move if they were in the same situation.

A lot has gone on in Raider Nation over the last month, but I think they acted too rashly in this situation. Think of the Steelers – Big Ben is always banged up and misses some time every year but nobody panics. They just roll the backup out under center and run the hell out of the ball.

You don’t think the Raiders could have done the same thing?

The NFL is all about instant gratification, with the amount of money each organization has on the line every week, each game, each play means a lot in the grand scheme of things. So, I can understand why the Raiders decided to strike why the iron is hot, but patience may have served them better – as it usually does for sports bettors.

Last week I jumped on the NFL over trend despite my suspicion that the tide was due to turn and sure enough, the under went 10-3 in Week 6. Guess we all need a little patience.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-4.5, 42)

The latest rumor out of Oakland is that Palmer may actually start this weekend, which seems like the furthest thing from a patient approach.

Again, maybe Palmer works out in the long run and the reviews out of practice have been good this week, but if he does start he’ll have to be working with an extremely condensed playbook.

Expect a ton of McFadden coming out of the backfield mixed with some deep throws to Oakland’s speedy wideouts.

Kansas City struggles to put many points on the board at the best of times and five of the last six meetings between these two teams have played under the total.

Pick: Under


Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-3.5, 47.5)

Bad news out of Detroit this week: Jahvid Best’s concussion sounds like it’s much worse than originally thought.

He has had concussion problems dating back to college and now it has been reported that he is being urged to shut it down for the season. That’s a big problem for the Lions.

They don’t get a lot done on the ground, but Best is a huge big-play threat. Plus, the trade they swung to pick up Ronnie Brown was shut down by the league after Jerome Harrison was diagnosed with a brain tumor. That doesn’t leave much in Detroit’s running back stable.

This Lions offense is looking more like a one-trick pony all the time.

Pick: Under


Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1, 43.5)

The NFL just has to get rid of these European adventures or at least schedule them better. At least both of these teams go on their byes in Week 8, but you have to worry about their preparation for this matchup.

Still both teams are coming off big wins. In Chicago, it seems like Mike Martz has finally realized that keeping two tight ends in on the line is a great way to make sure that Jay Cutler doesn’t get his head taken off.
Cutler repaid him by throwing for 267 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over Minnesota.

Meanwhile, Josh Freeman had his best game of the season by firing for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over New Orleans.

This matchup should give Londoners something to cheer about.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 1-2
Season record to date: 9-9


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[Udog]

Where the action is: NFL Week 7 lines moves

Oddsmakers have been busy taking wagers and adjusting the odds accordingly heading into Sunday’s NFL slate. We talk to Jay Rood, sportsbook manager for the MGM Mirage, about some of the biggest line moves on the Week 7 board:

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets – Open: +2.5, Move: -1, Move: Pick

There’s been a ton of talk between these teams heading into this weekend. Rood believes a few factors are playing into the drastic line moves, which have seen the spread flip and eventually land on a pick ‘em.

“The Jets looked a bit better during that Monday night game,” says Rood. “And this is a big travel spot for San Diego, playing on the East Coast in which is really an early-morning game for them.”

“With this stadium being a 3-point stadium, the Chargers are still favorites when you break it down according to the pointspread.”

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -1.5, Move: +1

With the NFL jumping the pond, money on the Bears has flipped them from underdogs to favorites. Rood says Chicago’s performance against the Vikings last week and a veteran roster is something bettors are leaning on.

“It’s a tough matchup to handicap,” he says. “Both of these teams are very Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde – you don’t know who is going to show up each Sunday.”

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins – Open: -3, Move: Pick, Move: -1

Tim Tebow’s season debut is expected to pack the stands in Miami, where his championship Florida team is being honored. Money came in hard on the Broncos, moving this game to a pick ‘em before bettors bought back the Dolphins at home.

“It’s going to be tough for Tebow,” says Rood, talking about Denver’s recent trade of WR Brandon Lloyd to St. Louis. “It seems odd that they would give him a shot but take away one of his best weapons. It’s almost like they’re setting him up to fail.”

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -10.5, Move: -13.5

Dallas is a big favorite at home, which doesn’t sit well with Rood. The Cowboys have played in nothing but close games this season, with no game finishing with more than a four-point difference. Rood says Rams QB Sam Bradford’s ankle injury has some impact on the move, but expected him to be on the field Sunday.

“If the Rams score the first touchdown, Dallas is going to be in a big fight to cover this spread all day. They’re a team that seems to really get down when the other team scores or something goes bad.”

[Udog]

NFL


Week 7

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NFL betting weather report: Week 7
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Find out how weather and wind will impact your football bets in Week 7 of the NFL season.

Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-3, 41)

The forecast in Cleveland is calling for winds, blowing SW from corner to corner, at speeds of up to 13 mph.

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-1, 41.5)

Mother Nature could rain on Tim Tebow’s parade. The forecast in Miami is calling for a chance of showers and winds, blowing NNE from end zone to end zone, at speeds of up to 13 mph. With the college kids using the natural grass field Saturday, the footing could be slick with a little added wetness.

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 43)

Foggy London Town won’t drop rain on the visiting NFL teams, however, there will be winds, blowing SE from corner to corner, of speeds of up to 15 mph (or 22 km per hour if you’re in England) at Wembley Stadium. Temperatures will be in the low 50s.


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[Udog]

NFL


Week 7

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Sunday Night Football: Colts at Saints
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Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-14, 47.5)

THE STORY: The NFL season is fraught with uncertainties, and there's no better example than the quarterback matchup when the New Orleans Saints host the winless Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night. You can be sure that NFL officials – as well as NBC executives – were not planning to see Drew Brees squaring off against Curtis Painter when the schedule was drawn up in the offseason. The two quarterbacks have one thing in common – they are both trying to rebound from tough losses on the road. The last time the teams met, New Orleans defeated the Colts 31-17 in Super Bowl XLIV in Miami.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

LINE MOVES: The Saints opened as two-touchdown favorites and the line has dropped as low as -13. The total opened around 48 points and has dropped half a point.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (4-2, 2-4 ATS): Brees continues to pile up record numbers, but he's also turning the ball over at a disconcerting pace. Brees threw for 383 yards and a touchdown in last week's 26-20 loss at Tampa Bay, becoming the first quarterback to throw for more than 350 yards in four straight games. However, he also tossed three interceptions and has been picked off eight times in the last four games. Saints coach Sean Payton, who calls the team’s offensive plays, will be forced to sit in the press box after he suffered a fractured tibia and torn meniscus when he was plowed over on the sideline in last week’s game.

ABOUT THE COLTS (0-6, 3-3 ATS): Although Indianapolis has shown signs of life on offense, its defense cannot stop anyone. The Colts are tied with Carolina for the most points allowed with 163. After blowing three straight second-half leads, Indy was within three points with 9 ½ minutes to play at Cincinnati last week before a returned fumble touchdown sealed the 27-17 loss. Painter has found a reliable target in Pierre Garcon, who had a career-high eight catches last week after catching two TD passes in each of the previous two games. RB Joseph Addai is expected to sit again, leaving Delone Carter and Donald Brown to split carries.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. A loss by Indianapolis on Sunday night will end a streak of nine consecutive seasons of double-digit victories. The Colts have not started 0-7 since 1997.

2. Saints TE Jimmy Graham is tied for second in the league with 39 catches. Last week, he became the second TE in history (Tony Gonzalez, 2000) to record four straight 100-yard games.

3. Saints RB Darren Sproles also has 39 receptions. He's the only player in the league with a rushing, receiving and return TD.

TRENDS:

*Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Colts are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 road games.
* Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.
* Over is 5-0 in Colts' last five games overall.
* Over is 11-4 in Saints' last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

PREDICTION: Saints 38, Colts 17. Brees carves up defenseless Colts, who lack firepower to keep pace.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 24

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Ravens at Jaguars: What bettors need to know
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Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 40)

THE STORY: Mired in a five-game losing streak amid growing speculation that their coach's job is in jeopardy, one of the last teams the Jacksonville Jaguars want to see come to town Monday night is the Baltimore Ravens. Jacksonville is among the league's lowest-scoring teams and now must host a Ravens team that has surrendered an NFL-low 71 points. That's not exactly the ideal recipe to help beleaguered coach Jack Del Rio and the offensively challenged Jaguars avoid a sixth consecutive loss for the first time since the franchise's inaugural season in 1995.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET. LINE: Ravens -7.5, O/U 39.5

ABOUT THE RAVENS (4-1): Baltimore is riding a three-game winning streak and is coming off an impressive 29-14 win over Houston, a division rival of the Jaguars. Despite questions about their offense, last week’s scoring output was the lowest for the Ravens in any of their wins. Joe Flacco overcame two turnovers to throw for 305 yards and Ray Rice rushed for 101 yards and had five catches for 60 yards. WR Anquan Boldin had eight catches for 132 yards, both season highs. Baltimore limited Arian Foster, the league’s leading rusher last season, to 49 yards on 15 carries.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (1-5): Despite its offensive ineptitude, Jacksonville showed some moxie a week ago, battling back from a 17-0 deficit in Pittsburgh to get into position for a failed Hail Mary pass at the end of the game. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert threw for only 109 yards and a TD in his fourth start since replacing Luke McCown. Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 96 yards on 22 carries. On an offense bereft of playmakers, Jones-Drew has managed to run for at least 84 yards in each game. He is third in the league with 572 yards rushing.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Last week, Ravens LB Ray Lewis became the first player in league history with at least 40 career sacks and 30 interceptions.

2. Jones-Drew needs six yards rushing to reach 8,000 for his career.

3. Baltimore has won seven of the last eight meetings with Jacksonville.

LINE MOVEMENT:

The line opened up just above the touchdown hook (7.5) but has been bet up to 9.5 as of Sunday afternoon. It would take an avalanche of Baltimore action to drive this number above another key number (10) but we know the public likes the Ravens a lot in this spot.

Not a lot to talk about with the over/under line. The total is jumping between 39.5 and 40.

TRENDS:

The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games and last six games as chalk.

The Jags are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against winning teams.

The over is 5-1 in the Ravens’ last six games overall while the under is 5-1 in the Jags last six games.

PREDICTION: Ravens 23, Jaguars 13. Baltimore has no problems shutting down Jacksonville’s one-dimensional offense.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 24

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Tale of the tape: Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
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We like to dig into the numbers with our Tale of the Tape pieces for big football matchups. Here's a look at Monday night's Ravens-Jaguars tilt.

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 40)


Offense

With Ray Rice bursting out of the backfield, the Baltimore Ravens sit fifth in the league averaging 29.6 points per game. Rice has 398 rushing yards and 302 receiving yards to go along with four touchdowns. Quarterback Joe Flacco has battled inconsistency this season, but did throw for more than 300 yards in last week’s 29-14 win over Houston.

However, Baltimore did struggle in the red zone again as Billy Cundiff converted five field goals. The Ravens is 28th in the NFL with a 36.8 percent touchdown rate.
To put it nicely, Jacksonville’s offense is a work in progress with rookie Blaine Gabbert taking the snaps. The Jags average just 137.7 yards of passing offense and just over 260 yards of total offense while managing only 12 points per game. Gabbert completes only 48.8 percent of his passes and averages just 5.8 yards per attempt.

Despite the offensive problems, stud running back Maurice Jones-Drew continues to roll along averaging about 100 yards per game on five yards per carry. One of the team’s major disappointments has been tight end Marcedes Lewis who has just 10 catches and no touchdowns after putting up 700 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns last season.

Pick: Baltimore


Defense

Jacksonville’s defense isn’t bad, but this isn’t even close. Baltimore ranks among the top three in points allowed (14.2), total yards (286.2) and running yards (76.6) per game. The Ravens may be getting older, but they have still managed 15 quarterback sacks and 14 turnovers this season.

Jacksonville ranks ninth in both total defense (325.3 yards) and passing defense (210.3 yards), but the club is having a terrible time stopping the run. The Steelers rumbled for 185 running yards on the Jags last week and New Orleans went for 177 rushing yards against them back in Week 4.

Pick: Baltimore


Special teams

The Ravens gave Billy Cundiff a five-year $15-million contract last offseason and he’s earned that dough so far this year hitting 14 of his 16 field goal tries and consistently booming deep kick offs. The Ravens also have a number of dangerous threats in the return game including David Reed and Bryan McCann.

Baltimore has had some hiccups in covering kick returns with opponents averaging better than 39 yards per return but allow only five yards per punt return. Jacksonville is average in both of those categories and have a strong kicking game, but doesn’t have the big-play potential with its returners. The Jags average only 23.5 yards per kick return and just 4.2 yards per punt.

Edge: Baltimore


Word on the street

“To any critic I always say watch tape. That’s it. You don’t have to argue with anybody. The eye in the sky don’t lie. The only thing that follows work is results. I guarantee every time. Every time I go back to work, every offseason there’s always some voice that I hear in my ear saying you’re getting a step slower.” – Baltimore’s 36-year-old middle linebacker Ray Lewis.

"He's been a guy with strong hands, and in our time here with him, that's one of the things you know about Mike. He's got good strong hands to the ball and he's a savvy route runner and knows how to set people up." – Jags coach Jack Del Rio on wideout Mike Sims-Walker, who signed on with Jacksonville again after being cut loose in St. Louis. Sims-Walker is expected to make his season debut with the Jags Monday.

Final score prediction

Baltimore Ravens 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 10


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