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**Udog** · 10-18-2011, 09:20 AM

Tuesday’s betting tips: FIU struggles off the bye

Who’s hot

NCAAF: Arkansas State is 5-1 against the spread this season.

NHL: Washington is 4-0 to start the season.

NHL: Buffalo has won five of its last seven games in Montreal.

Who’s not

NCAAF: Florida International is 0-4 against the spread in their last four games following a bye.

NHL: Edmonton is 7-20-2 in its last 29 trips to Calgary.

NHL: Columbus is 0-4-1 to start the season.

Key stat

13-7 – The over is a combined 13-7 in St. Louis and Texas’ postseason games heading into Wednesday’s Game 1 of the World Series.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Jeff Carter, Columbus Blue Jackets – Carter suffered a hairline fracture on the top of his right foot Saturday and is currently questionable for Tuesday’s matchup with the Dallas Stars.

Game of the day

Florida International at Arkansas State (-3, 55)

Notable quotable

"This is going to be quite a big week for the club, with Manchester United [to play] at the weekend. We are aware of that game, and the situation at the top of the league, but first we have to take care of the Champions League match. Villarreal is all we can think about right now." – Manchester City’s David Villa ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League matchup with Villarreal. Man City has just one point in its first two Champs League contests and is set as a -435 favorite. A Villarreal victory is pegged at +1000 and the draw is at +400.

Notes and tips

Vancouver Canucks center Ryan Kesler is expected to make his season debut Tuesday against the New York Rangers. Kesler, who has been recovering from offseason hip surgery, practiced with the team Monday morning. The Canucks also opened a spot on the 23-man roster by sending defenseman Chris Tanev to Chicago of the AHL. Kesler underwent surgery to repair a torn hip labrum at the beginning of August. His recovery time was estimated at three months. Signed to a six-year extension worth $30 million in 2010, Kesler collected a career-high 42 goals, 32 assists and 66 penalty minutes last season. However, he suffered a groin tear and struggled during the Stanley Cup Finals against Boston, recording just one assist in seven games for the Presidents' Trophy-winning Canucks.

Chris Carpenter has been tabbed as the likely starter for the St. Louis Cardinals and will be opposed by Texas Rangers lefthander C.J. Wilson in Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday night. Carpenter was being saved in the event the National League Championship Series went to a seventh and deciding game. The Cardinals made sure that didn't happen, routing the Milwaukee Brewers 12-6 to wrap up the NLCS in six games. Wilson was hit hard in Thursday's start against Detroit, allowing six runs on eight hits in six innings. He also was rocked by Tampa Bay for eight runs in five innings in his playoff opener. Carpenter has been the best of a bad bunch for the Cardinals in the post-season, going 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in three starts. St. Louis' other three starters - Jaime Garcia, Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse - are 1-4 with a collective 6.21 ERA in their eight appearances. Oddsmakers have the Cardinals listed as an early -120 favorite for Game 1, while Texas is a -175 series favorite.

**Udog** · 10-18-2011, 09:22 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- When small market baseball teams lose in playoffs, like Milwaukee Sunday night, its especially sad, because with Fielder walking away for big bucks, no way are the Brewers a playoff team next year; their pitchers stayed unusually healthy this year, too.

-- St Louis 3B David Freese was 12-22 with nine RBI in the NLCS.

-- Ray Lewis is the only guy in NFL history with 30 interceptions and 40 sacks.

-- Cincinnati Bengals have won field position battle in all six games.

-- With Bengals/Raiders battling for Wild Card spot in AFC, doesn’t that it seem even less likely that Carson Palmer gets traded to Oakland?

-- In their last five games, Buffalo has allowed at least 7.6 yards/pass attempt- they need to tighten that up some.

****************

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Bottom 5 and top 8 in the NFL........

32) Rams—Completely non-competitive, and that’s the nicest thing I can say.

31) Dolphins—If Rams get the #1 pick, what will Miami give them for it? One of the few things St Louis doesn’t need is a quarterback. QB is one of many things Miami needs.

30) Jaguars—Do people in Los Angeles realize that Blaine Gabbert is probably their QB of the future?

29) Colts—You know, its not 100% etched in stone that Andrew Luck will be in next spring’s draft; he could go back to Stanford next year.

28) Vikings— If you’re playing a division rival on national TV, how do you show up unprepared to play? Might as well find out now if Christian Ponder is any good, because its obvious McNabb isn’t.

8) Lions—Interesting that Tony Dungy criticized Jim Schwartz for not walking away quietly from Jim Harbaugh’s slap on the back after Sunday’s game. Not everyone is as saintly as Dungy.

7) 49ers—Before we declare Harbaugh to be the next George Halas, remember that two years ago, Josh McDaniels had Denver at 6-0 and was being hailed as a coaching genius. How’s that working out?

6) Steelers—This ranking is based mostly on reputation and Big Ben having won two Super Bowls. They’ve been very good at home.

5) Saints—Interesting to see how Sean Payton does calling plays from the press box; also interested to see what plays get called by a guy on major painkillers.

4) Chargers—Nick Saban left LSU to coach the Dolphins, where he chose not to sign Drew Brees, who had been replaced in San Diego by Philip Rivers, whose brother then signed to play at LSU, coached by the guy who replaced Saban, Les Miles. Rivers will get to play against Saban for the next four years, since choosing Daunte Culpepper over Brees made Saban this generation’s Lou Holtz, a guy who couldn’t wait to scamper back into the college game.

3) Ravens—Way to beat Baltimore is to force Flacco to make quick decisions; if he has to time to throw deep, he’s not bad.

2) Patriots—Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the NFL right now and one of the three best I’ve ever seen, and the next time I root for him will be the first, other than when I’ve picked them on this site (they’ve never won when I’ve picked them….lol). But Brady is really, really good.

1) Packers—Defending champs are best til beaten, and that doesn’t look to be happening anytime soon.

**Udog** · 10-18-2011, 09:25 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Buffalo at Montreal
The Canadiens look to bounce back from their 6-5 loss to Colorado and build on their 7-3 record in their last 10 games after allowing 5 or more goals on the previous game. Montreal is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 18

Game 1-2: Carolina at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 12.106; Boston 10.893
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+155); Over

Game 3-4: Florida at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.496; Washington 11.852
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-220); Under

Game 5-6: Dallas at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.582; Columbus 10.418
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-110); Under

Game 7-8: Buffalo at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 10.660; Montreal 11.701
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+100); Over

Game 9-10: Philadelphia at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.768; Ottawa 11.277
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+145); Over

Game 11-12: Pittsburgh at Minnesota (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.875; Minnesota 11.019
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); Under

Game 13-14: Edmonton at Calgary (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 12.109; Calgary 10.516
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+150); Under

Game 15-16: NY Rangers at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.009; Vancouver 11.371
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-180); Over

Game 17-18: Chicago at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.619; Phoenix 11.080
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-135); Under

Game 19-20: St. Louis at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.502; Los Angeles 12.718
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-140); Over

**Udog** · 10-18-2011, 09:30 AM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 18

Hot teams
-- Carolina won its last two games, 3-2/4-3.
-- Washington won its first four games, all by one goal, three in OT/SO. Panthers won three of their first four games.
-- Dallas Stars won four of their first five games.
-- Sabres are 3-2 away from home, allowing five goals.
-- Flyers won three of their first four games.
-- Blackhawks won two of their last three games. Phoenix won its last two games, 5-2/4-1.

Cold teams
-- Bruins are 2-3 in their first five games.
-- Columbus is 0-5, scoring two goals in all five games.
-- Canadiens lost three of their first four games.
-- Senators lost four of their last five games.
-- Minnesota lost three of its last four games. Penguins lost four of five.
-- Calgary lost three of its first four games. Oilers lost two of their last three games.
-- Rangers lost their first three games, scoring five goals. Vancouver lost three of its first five games.
-- Kings started season with 2-2 road trip; three of four went OT. Blues lost three of their first five games.

Totals
-- All five Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-1 in Florida's last four visits to Washington.
-- Under is 9-1 in last ten Dallas-Columbus games.
-- Under is 8-0-1 in last nine Buffalo-Montreal games.
-- Four of five Ottawa games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Three of four Edmonton games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1 in last five Ranger-Canuck games.
-- Under is 11-4 in last fifteen Chicago-Phoenix games.
-- Four of five St Louis games went over total. Kings' last three games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Bruins won 11 of last 14 games against Carolina.
-- Washington won nine of last 12 games against the Panthers.
-- Dallas won three of last four against the Blue Jackets; they're 6-5 in last eleven games in this building.
-- Sabres won four of last six visits to Montreal.
-- Ottawa won five of last seven games against the Flyers.
-- Minnesota won five of last six games against the Penguins.
-- Flames won five in row, 12 of last 13 against Edmonton.
-- Rangers lost four of last five games against Vancouver.
-- Blackhawks lost three of last four visits to Phoenix.
-- Los Angeles lost its last seven games against the Blues.

**Udog** · 10-18-2011, 09:35 AM

NHL

Tuesday, October 18

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. BOSTON
Carolina is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
Boston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Carolina

7:00 PM
DALLAS vs. COLUMBUS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing Columbus
Columbus is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Dallas
Columbus is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
FLORIDA vs. WASHINGTON
Florida is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Washington's last 24 games at home
Washington is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home

7:30 PM
BUFFALO vs. MONTREAL
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. OTTAWA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Philadelphia's last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Ottawa is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia

8:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. MINNESOTA
Pittsburgh is 1-8-1 SU in its last 10 games ,when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh

9:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. CALGARY
Edmonton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Edmonton is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton

10:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Phoenix is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games at home

10:00 PM
NY RANGERS vs. VANCOUVER
NY Rangers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing Vancouver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Rangers last 5 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Vancouver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vancouver's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Rangers

10:30 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. LOS ANGELES
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
Los Angeles is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 10-18-2011, 09:38 AM

NHL

Tuesday, October 18

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Ice picks: Tuesday's best NHL bets
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Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins (-195, 5.5)

The Boston Bruins look like they’re still feeling the hangover of their summer-long Stanley Cup celebration.

Boston managed to pick up a 3-2 shootout win over the Blackhawks on Saturday, but the club has a lot of work to do. The Bruins have looked sloppy in their own end at times and appear to be struggling to play with the intensity that made them so tough to play against last spring.

"We knew that you don't really want to lose three games in a row," defenseman Johnny Boychuk told reporters about snapping their slump Saturday. "We've been on the road for a (few) days, only two games, but we wanted to make sure to at least come out with a split after that first loss."

Carolina had a jump in its step last week when they downed the Bruins 3-2 and it sounds as though the Bruins will be without David Krejci again Tuesday. His absence has coach Claude Julien rotating centers through the top line to try to find some chemistry.

So far at least, it’s a work in progress.

Pick: Carolina

Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets (-110, 5.5)

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Stars, but they look to be gelling quickly.

The Stars cruised to a 4-2 win over the Blue Jackets on Saturday, controlling the play by outshooting Columbus 33-15. Winger Adam Burish told reporters that it was one of the better games the team has played in a long time and they’ll have a chance to complete the home-and-home sweep Tuesday as they begin a four-game road trip.

"Our week on the road now is going to be a good test for us mentally on the road to see what we're made of," rookie coach Glen Gulutzan said.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are struggling to get anything going and could be without Jeff Carter, who suffered a hairline fracture in his right foot Saturday.

This line probably should end up favoring the Star by the time the puck drops.

Pick: Stars

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**Udog** · 10-18-2011, 09:49 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Texas at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to open the series and build on their 11-1 record in Chris Carpenter's last 12 starts as a home favorite from -110 to -150. St. Louis is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 19

Game 951-952: Texas at St. Louis (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 15.384; St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.359
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 19

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TEXAS (103 - 69) at ST LOUIS (97 - 76) - 8:05 PM
C.J. WILSON (L) vs. CHRIS CARPENTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 98-77 (+4.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 97-75 (+4.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 73-47 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 38-30 (+7.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 27-15 (+14.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
CARPENTER is 14-2 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CARPENTER is 9-1 (+9.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 104-68 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 32-23 (+12.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 200-168 (+35.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
TEXAS is 98-63 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 76-43 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 77-45 (+19.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 50-35 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TEXAS is 86-64 (+21.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
WILSON is 45-24 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WILSON is 33-14 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 24-29 (-16.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 8-15 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 22-22 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
CARPENTER is 8-11 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)
CARPENTER is 8-11 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
CARPENTER is 3-8 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

C.J. WILSON vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
No recent starts.

CHRIS CARPENTER vs. TEXAS since 1997
CARPENTER is 2-6 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 7.16 and a WHIP of 1.807.
His team's record is 4-7 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-6. (-1.4 units)

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MLB

Wednesday, October 19

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Trend Report
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8:05 PM
TEXAS vs. ST. LOUIS
Texas is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of St. Louis's last 14 games

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MLB

Wednesday, October 19

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World Series odds and pick: Is an upset in the Cards?
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Texas Rangers (96-66) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)

Series odds: Rangers -160, Cardinals +140

The Rangers are World Series favorites despite the Cardinals owning home-field advantage. Does that mean St. Louis' miracle season is about to end? Here's how we see the series breaking down:

PITCHING:

Both teams have received little from their starting pitchers so far in the postseason. The Rangers prevailed over Detroit in six games despite not getting a single victory from a starter in the American League championship series.

C.J. Wilson will likely get the call for Texas in Game 1, and he'll be an instant underdog against steady Cardinals counterpart Chris Carpenter. Beyond that, it could get messy; the other three pitchers to start for St. Louis in the playoffs - Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson - are 1-4 with a collective 6.21 ERA in their eight outings.

With the bullpens expected to see plenty of action, Texas has the slightest of edges in that regard. The Rangers relief staff is 4-0 with a 2.34 ERA and .193 opposing batting average, with the Cardinals (4-0, 2.55 ERA, .177 opp. BA) right on their heels. Carpenter gives St. Louis the edge in this one, but only by the slimmest of margins.

EDGE: Cardinals

HITTING:

Few teams can match the offensive prowess of the Rangers - but the Cardinals are one of them. St. Louis leads all playoff teams with a .288 average and 62 runs scored.

The surprising David Freese (.425, 4 HRs, 14 RBIs) leads the way for the Cardinals, with the always dependable Albert Pujols (.419, 2 HRs, 10 RBIs) right behind. Matt Holliday (.375) looked good against Milwaukee, while Lance Berkman (.237, 1 HR, 6 RBIs) did not.

Texas rode Nelson Cruz (6 HR) to victory in the ALCS, but will need stronger performances from just about everyone else. With Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler combining for just two postseason home runs - after hitting 87 in the regular season - the Rangers can ill afford to suffer through a similar power outage against a St. Louis club that has a formidable offense of its own.

Expect better performances from that trio, which will be enough to give Texas the advantage here.

EDGE: Rangers

INTANGIBLES: It's difficult to quantify which factor offers a bigger advantage: the Cardinals being led by Tony La Russa, one of the game's best managers; or the Rangers having been to the World Series just one season earlier and carrying that big-game experience with them into this year's Fall Classic. The difference maker will likely be the Cardinals' home-field advantage, which should give them the tactical edge.

EDGE: Cardinals

PREDICTION: Cardinals in seven games.

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**Udog** · 10-18-2011, 09:53 AM

NFL odds: Opening line report Week 7

Who can figure out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

They couldn’t stop Alex Smith. They intercepted Drew Brees three times.

They took the worst beating in franchise history, then limped home without their star defensive tackle and leading rusher. So of course they promptly upset the Saints as 6-point underdogs.

With the 4-2 Bucs heading to London to face 3-3 Chicago, the line has been fluctuating as much as Tampa’s level of play. Both teams have been slight favorites depending on when you check. No one knows where it will land.

“Tampa is a tough team to get a read on,” Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook director John Avello told ***********. “It was the same last year when they had a good season. They’ll have a lot of good weeks but when they have a poor week, oh boy. Then they usually bounce back.

“I expected them to play well in San Francisco and they took a heckuva beating.”

Opinions vary widely on Tampa Bay, which leads the NFC West despite being picked behind the Saints and Falcons.

MGM Mirage’s Jeff Stoneback called the Buccaneers “decent.”

“They were 10-6 last year and it’s just a combination of being young and inconsistent, and maybe San Fran showed it’s the real deal,” Stoneback told ***********. “Sometimes a team plays a bad game, gets behind early and things just steamroll.”

Despite Sunday’s 26-20 win over New Orleans, handicapper Steve Merril rates Tampa Bay as “below average.”

“They were in a good situation, as they were coming off a blowout loss and caught the Saints in their third straight road game,” Merril said.

The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opened the Bucs as 1-point favorites, but that was before Chicago pounded Minnesota on Sunday night. Now Chicago is laying 1.

There are times, manager Jay Kornegay said, when “things don’t go the Bucs’ way and they just don’t perform. But you can’t just look at one or two weeks. You have to look at the whole picture.

“They’re never as bad as they seem or as good as they seem.”

Tampa isn’t the only tough team to get a read on.

The Steelers dominated Tennessee 38-17 in Week 5, easily covering as 3-point favorites. Then they sleepwalked through a 17-13 win over Jacksonville on Sunday, failing to cover 12.5.

“The Steelers appear to be suffering from the ‘Super Bowl loser’ syndrome,” Covers expert Marc Lawrence said. “That, and a beat-up offensive line, have done in a lot of teams.”

Pittsburgh has been up and down since getting blown out by Baltimore in the opener.

“They come back and look good against Tennessee, then they just plod through with Jacksonville,” Stoneback said. “They win, but you’re just waiting for them to break out and start dominating a few teams. They seem to play down to their competition.”

Pittsburgh is laying 3.5 at Arizona. The best thing you can say about the Cardinals is they’re rested.

Other inscrutable teams include Dallas and Philadelphia.

“Dallas is kind of confusing,” Kornegay said. “Their line of scrimmage play is really good sometimes. But they make a lot of bad mistakes. They’re just really inconsistent.

“The Eagles are another team that’s hard to get a grasp on,” he continued. “They’re talented. It’s just a matter of whether they’ll implode or not.”

BIGGEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at New Orleans (-14, 47.5)

The Saints are angry and coming home. The winless Colts are playing their second straight on the road.

“Two touchdowns seems like a lot because New Orleans lets teams stay in the game,” Avello said. “But I don’t know how that Indy offense keeps up with the New Orleans offense.”

Under Sean Payton, the Saints are 18-12 ATS coming off a loss and 14-9 ATS in non-conference games.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Chicago vs. Tampa Bay in London (1, 43), Washington at Carolina (-1.5, 44)

Redskins coach Mike Shanahan says he won’t choose between John Beck and Rex Grossman until Wednesday, and who can blame him? It’s not an appealing choice. Whoever gets the nod will play behind a line that just suffered two significant injuries.

Carolina (4-2 ATS) can only hope Cam Newton’s three-interception performance was a speedbump and not a sign defenses are catching up to the freakishly athletic rookie.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Atlanta at Detroit (-3.5, 48.5)

The Lions have played two straight unders after opening with four overs. Sunday’s 25-19 home loss to San Francisco barely stayed under the total of 45.

Look for the Falcons, who re-established their ground game Sunday, to try to run against a Lions defense that ranks 26th (129.5 yards per game). However, the over is 11-6-2 ATS in Atlanta’s last 19 conference games.

This is the biggest total because high-scoring teams like New England, Buffalo and the Giants are off.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Baltimore at Jacksonville (7.5, 38.5), Seattle at Cleveland (-3, 40)

The Ravens played over in every game until Sunday, when their 29-14 win over Houston stayed under by half a point.

But it’s hard to see the Jaguars mustering much offense in this matchup. They’re averaging 12 points and haven’t played a defense of this caliber. The Jags own a 1-5 O/U mark.

Seattle has a striking 14-6 O/U mark in road games since 2009 and the over is 20-9-1 when the Seahawks are underdogs.

**Udog** · 10-18-2011, 09:58 AM

NFL Week 6 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

There were plenty of doubters when oddsmakers made San Francisco the favorite to win the West.

Count me in. I didn’t think the Niners could do it, mostly because of their starting quarterback. But I knew they had a chance because of Jim Harbaugh.

I got to know Harbaugh pretty well covering Stanford for two years. I interviewed him at practices and one seat separated us at a weekly media roundtable.

Harbaugh is cut from the Bo Schembechler mold. He demands physicality, headiness and a blue-collar work ethic from his guys. He gets great play out of average players.

Harbs is one of the best motivators I’ve met. His enthusiasm is contagious. When we left our pressers, I wanted to put on pads and hit somebody.

The guy brings a lot of personality, and a little bit of crazy.

We got a little taste after the game when the “What’s your deal” saga became the “Get out of my face” celebration. Harbs could use a sportsmanship lesson from Tony Dungy. But you gotta love him.

His don’t-give-a-crap attitude makes him a bettor’s coach. He always seemed to know the Stanford spreads. And he doesn’t mind running up the score. But his gambler mentality is why backers get burned sometimes.

There’s no question Harbaugh has a few things to learn about NFL “protocol” but one thing is certain, the Niners are playing above their heads because their head man is damn good.

The Good…

We know that Aaron Rodgers can beat the bejesus out of you when he’s motivated. But even if he isn’t, and he’s just average, the Packers are still covering.

Clay Matthews said a couple weeks ago that they haven’t played their best ball yet. That’s true and the rest of the league should be very concerned.

The Pack offense disappeared in the second half Sunday. Mr. Rodgers completed all of six passes. And that’s a concern for us. They’re content sitting on big leads and letting the defense do its thing. Something to think about before doubling up at halftime.

I really thought the Bengals were going to have trouble matching their four wins from last season. So did most bettors because books couldn’t drop their win total fast enough.

Andy Dalton isn’t doing anything spectacular but he’s playing sound football. Like fellow rookie Cam Newton, the Ginger Kid gives his team a chance to win.

Mike Zimmer told us before the season that he had one helluva defense. He wasn’t lying. This line rotation is downright dirty and the D picks up the offense when it needs to.

Final good vibe, thanks for making me look smart Devin Hester. Why would anyone kick to this guy?

The Bad…

Can someone please explain the “Calvin Johnson” rule to me?

Nasty Nate Burleson did not possess that ball through the catch. I’m not sure how they reversed that call. Even the rules guru Mike Periera thought it was incomplete. The play actually looked a lot like Johnson’s from last year.

It didn’t affect the end result but it confused the masses even more. We’ve seen this happen often this year, and one call seems to contradict another. The problem needs to be corrected, and receivers need to hold onto the ball.

Speaking of the Leos, they have some problems.

The O-line was raped yesterday. Stafford was sacked a handful of times, and hurries and hits were in the double-digit range. They have to keep him healthy.

The ground game has to get better too. Like the Cowgirls, the Lions don’t have a power back to grind out a lead.

This is a good squad but these problems must dissipate before Detroit can be dubbed elite.

The Ugly…

I said multiple times last week that if the Redskins lost it would be Rextasy’s fault. They did and it was.

I’ve learned my lesson. I will never bet on a team led by that clown again.

I shouldn’t have the opportunity because he cemented himself as a career backup. A coach should automatically lose his job for starting him. Eight completions, four picks…you’ve got to be effin’ kidding me.

The Rat should have switched to Beck during the bye. It might not matter. Let’s not lose sight of the fact that this team started 3-2 last year and then won three games the rest of the way.

There should also be a permanent quarterback change in Minny. McFlabb basically took a knee in the end zone last night and was smiling on the ground. More sacks. More skipped balls. Ponder looked good enough.

The Leans…

I’ll have some plays but I don’t have any leans for Week 7 right now.

I just want to kindly ask you guys and gals to say a prayer for those close to Dan Wheldon. A fine life and career cut short by tragedy.

NFL Record: 16-4-2, $1190

**Udog** · 10-18-2011, 12:24 PM

NHL
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 18

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CAROLINA (2-2-0-1, 5 pts.) at BOSTON (2-3-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/18/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 12-3 ATS (+7.9 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 20-21 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-3 (+1.8 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-3-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.1 Units)

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FLORIDA (3-1-0-0, 6 pts.) at WASHINGTON (4-0-0-0, 8 pts.) - 10/18/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 97-143 ATS (-48.6 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 9-3 (+4.0 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 9-3-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.6 Units)

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DALLAS (4-1-0-0, 8 pts.) at COLUMBUS (0-4-0-1, 1 pts.) - 10/18/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 82-66 ATS (+154.5 Units) in home games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
COLUMBUS is 33-54 ATS (-34.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 24-59 ATS (+91.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 11-26 ATS (+43.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 5-4 (+0.9 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 5-4-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.8 Units)

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BUFFALO (3-1-0-0, 6 pts.) at MONTREAL (1-2-0-1, 3 pts.) - 10/18/2011, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 24-15 ATS (+40.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 223-157 ATS (+36.9 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 7-5 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 7-5-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
10 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+8.0 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (3-0-0-1, 7 pts.) at OTTAWA (1-4-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/18/2011, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 22-11 ATS (+33.3 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 5-3 (+3.7 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 5-3-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)

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PITTSBURGH (3-2-0-2, 8 pts.) at MINNESOTA (2-1-0-2, 6 pts.) - 10/18/2011, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 88-72 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
PITTSBURGH is 20-12 ATS (+6.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 48-31 ATS (+83.8 Units) in road games on Tuesday nights since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 1-7 ATS (-6.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-0 (+4.7 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-0-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.8 Units)

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EDMONTON (2-1-0-1, 5 pts.) at CALGARY (1-3-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/18/2011, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 53-113 ATS (+221.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 5-25 ATS (+43.3 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 5-11 ATS (-13.2 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 11-1-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.3 Units)

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NY RANGERS (0-1-0-2, 2 pts.) at VANCOUVER (2-2-0-1, 5 pts.) - 10/18/2011, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 121-78 ATS (+26.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 8-1 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 16-5 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 1-1-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.0 Units)

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CHICAGO (2-1-0-1, 5 pts.) at PHOENIX (2-1-0-1, 5 pts.) - 10/18/2011, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 98-81 ATS (-1.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 272-242 ATS (-52.5 Units) first half of the season since 1996.
PHOENIX is 22-14 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 30-21 ATS (+51.4 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 2-10 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 5-3 (+3.7 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 5-3-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.5 Units)

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ST LOUIS (2-3-0-0, 4 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (2-1-0-1, 5 pts.) - 10/18/2011, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 10-20 ATS (-10.4 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 122-141 ATS (+267.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 45-74 ATS (-57.5 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 7-1 (+7.7 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 7-1-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.4 Units)

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**Udog** · 10-18-2011, 12:29 PM

NHL
Short Sheet

Tuesday, October 18

CAROLINA at BOSTON, 7:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 28-46 SU as a road underdog
BOSTON: 12-3 SU on Tuesday nights

FLORIDA at WASHINGTON, 7:00 PM ET
FLORIDA: 39-77 SU as an underdog
WASHINGTON: 15-1 SU off a close home win by 1 goal

DALLAS at COLUMBUS, 7:00 PM ET
DALLAS: 9-19 SU off an home win scoring 4 or more goals
COLUMBUS: 13-41 SU off a road loss

BUFFALO at MONTREAL, 7:30 PM ET
BUFFALO: 3-12 SU off a road win by 1 goal
MONTREAL: 11-4 SU after a close loss by 1 goal

PHILADELPHIA at OTTAWA, 7:30 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 19-10 SU on Tuesday nights
OTTAWA: 22-11 SU when playing with 2 days rest

PITTSBURGH at MINNESOTA, 7:30 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 20-12 SU in a road game where where the total is 5.5
MINNESOTA: 1-7 SU in home games in non-conference games

EDMONTON at CALGARY, 9:00 PM ET
EDMONTON: 7-32 SU after playing a game where 4 or fewer total goals were scored
CALGARY: 14-23 SU after a non-conference game

NY RANGERS at VANCOUVER, 10:00 PM ET
NY RANGERS: 8-1 SU in road games after allowing 4 goals or mo
VANCOUVER: 9-2 SU off a close win by 1 goal over a division rival

CHICAGO at PHOENIX, 10:00 PM ET
CHICAGO: 5-14 SU in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
PHOENIX: 22-14 SU after a non-conference game

ST LOUIS at LOS ANGELES, 10:30 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 10-20 SU after allowing 4 goals or more
LOS ANGELES: 25-11 SU after 2 or more consecutive unders

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Announcement

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/18 (MLB, NHL, CFL, Misc.)

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/18 (MLB, NHL, CFL, Misc.)

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