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**Udog** · 10-11-2011, 08:56 AM

Tuesday betting tips: ALCS Game 3 ump hits overs

Who’s hot

MLB: Detroit is 20-8 in its last 28 home games.

NHL: Ottawa has won five of its last six home games.

NHL: The over is 9-3-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 15 games overall.

Who’s not

MLB: Texas is 5-17 in its last 22 games in Detroit.

NHL: Minnesota is 6-16 in its last 22 games playing on zero days’ rest.

NHL: Florida is 0-5 in its last five trips to Pittsburgh.

Key stat

-10 – The Philadelphia Eagles’ turnover differential through five games sits at -10, the club’s worst since 1977.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Mario Williams, Houston Texans - Linebacker Mario Williams will undergo season-ending surgery this week to repair torn pectoral muscle. Williams was injured in the second quarter of the Texans' 25-20 loss at the hands of the Oakland Raiders. The 26-year-old was replaced by Brooks Reed at outside linebacker. The North Carolina State star was enjoying a fantastic season in Houston, recording five sacks through his team's first five games. Houston opened as an early 7-point underdog at Baltimore this week.

Game of the day

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-130, 8.5)

Notable quotable

"It'll be nice pitching in front of our fans back home. We have a great atmosphere back there. After seeing our fan base, especially in the playoffs, it's an incredible feeling to stand up and look in the crowd and see everybody waving their white towels and being up, screaming on their feet. I'm looking forward to pitching in that atmosphere.” – Detroit Tigers Game 3 starter Doug Fister about heading home to Detroit down 2-0 in the ALCS to Texas.

Notes and tips

Jim Wolf is scheduled to be behind the plate when the Texas Rangers take on the Detroit Tigers in Game 3 of the ALCS. Wolf saw the over go 18-11 in the regular season with an average of 9.24 runs scored in his games. The over is 4-2-1 in his last seven games and he has seen the Rangers go over in each of their last three games with him behind the plate. Check out ***********'s umpire stats here.

Ottawa Senators forward Nikita Filatov will be a fourth-liner for his team's next game Tuesday night against the Minnesota Wild - if he plays at all. Filatov skated with the fourth line in Monday's practice after going through a dreadful weekend that saw the Senators lose to the Detroit Red Wings and rival Toronto Maple Leafs. The 21-year-old left-winger recorded a single assist in the back-to-back defeats and, while is one of the few players on the team with a plus rating, Senators coach Paul MacLean hasn't been impressed with his play so far. The former first-round pick has just six goals and eight assists in 46 career NHL games. Meanwhile, Ottawa captain Daniel Alfredsson (illness) is considered questionable for Monday’s game.

Florida head coach Will Muschamp confirmed Monday that Gators quarterback John Brantley will not be in the lineup for Saturday's showdown with the 24th-ranked Auburn Tigers. Brantley didn't play in last weekend's 41-11 drubbing at the hands of Louisiana State as he nurses a severely sprained ankle. He remains week-to-week, with no timetable for his return. Freshman Jacoby Brissett will practice with the starters in Brantley's absence. Brissett completed eight of 14 passes for 84 years with a touchdown and two interceptions against LSU. Fellow first-year QB Jeff Driskel may get the call in place of Brissett. Driskel missed Saturday's game with an ankle injury.

Denver Broncos coach John Fox on Monday said he will hold off on naming a starting quarterback until Tuesday. Fox said he wanted to review the film of Monday's 29-24 loss to San Diego before announcing whether incumbent Kyle Orton or fan favorite Tim Tebow will start following next week's bye. Tebow, the team's first-round draft pick in 2010, replaced an ineffective Orton to start the second half Sunday. Although his numbers were not great (4 of 10, 79 yards), Tebow threw for a touchdown and ran for another and nearly rallied the Broncos to victory. Orton had a dreadful performance, going 6 of 13 for 34 yards and an interception as Denver dropped to 1-4 on the season.The Broncos are on a bye this week.

**Udog** · 10-11-2011, 08:59 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- Umpire Jim Wolf has to work the ALCS, since his brother pitches for Milwaukee-- he can't work the NLCS.

-- When it was announced the Atlanta Thrashers were moving up to Winnipeg, they sold 13,000 season tickets in less than 20 minutes.

-- Baseball teams down 0-2 in seven-game series have won only 13 of those 51 series.

-- Arizona Wildcats fired their football coach Monday; what does it help to do it now? Just creates a lost season for their seniors.

-- Indiana lost hooper Mo Creek for the year with an Achilles injury; its his third major injury since scoring 16.4 ppg as a freshman.

-- NBA cancelled first two weeks of the regular season. I don't know much about economics, but how do the players win by extending this?

******************

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Bottom 5 and top 8 in the NFL........

28) Broncos-- Tebow gave team a spark, but does Elway want him being the team's franchise quarterback? My guess is no.

29) Colts-- Came close last three weeks and Painter hasn't looked bad, but blowing a 17-0 a lead at home to the Chiefs was disappointing.

30) Dolphins-- Matt Moore makes his first Miami start in the Swamp Monday night; he's a (Oregon State) Beaver, maybe he'll feel at home.

31) Jaguars-- Blew lead at home in 4th quarter to Bengals; can't use rookie QB as an excuse, since Bengals' Dalton is also a rookie.

32) Rams-- You know things suck when the bye week is great fun.

8) Raiders-- Emotional win in Houston; run ball better than most, but not 100% sold on Campbell as a playoff-caliber QB. Listen to the NFL Films piece during the Patriot game, when Hue Jackson was miked. He didn't sound too happy with Campbell either.

7) Bills-- Over half their roster was drafted in Rounds 5-7, or not at all. Hungry guys with a chip on their shoulder- that works in the NFL.

6) Chargers-- Norv Turner seems like a nice guy. Good for him. Thinking they'll get higher on this list.

5) Saints-- Chargers once had Drew Brees, let him walk and they're still good. Miami took Daunte Culpepper instead of Brees. Think about it.

4) Ravens-- Have to be worried about Flacco after his dismal exhibition against the Jets before their bye. He'll need to play a lot better.

3) Lions-- If I was a Bears' fan, it would make me puke that Lovie Smith didn't kick a FG down 11 with 0:35 left Monday night; it was his only chance to win the game. Not much of a game manager.

2) Patriots-- Led 21-0 in only game they lost. If I were them, wouldn't have Wes Welker returning punts; he's too valuable for that.

1) Packers-- Fell behind 14-0 in Atlanta and still won going away; they're a poised team with a lot of offensive weapons. My Rams are in for a long day this Sunday trying to defend this team.

**Udog** · 10-11-2011, 09:10 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Minnesota at Ottawa
The Wild look to take advantage of an Ottawa team that is coming off a 6-5 loss in Toronto and is 1-7 in its last 8 games after scoring 5 goals or more in the previous game. Minnesota is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-105). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 11

Game 51-52: Florida at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.313; Pittsburgh 11.659
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 53-54: Minnesota at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.038; Ottawa 10.537
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-105); Over

NHL

Tuesday, October 11

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
FLORIDA vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida's last 10 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Florida is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Florida

7:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. OTTAWA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Ottawa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota

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NHL

Tuesday, October 11

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Ice picks: Tuesday's best NHL bets
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Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators (-115, 5.5)

The Minnesota Wild have added some pieces this season and should be much better than last year once everything comes together. That hasn’t happened yet.

They were asleep at the wheel early in Monday’s matinee with the Islanders and quickly fell behind 2-0 in the first period. At one point, they went nearly 11 minutes without a shot before the opening intermission.

The second period was a different story as they outshot the Islanders 10-2 and held them to only five more shots after that opening period, but still fell 2-1.

"Everyone's talking about our system. We've done a good job of trying to play that way, quickly," Heatley told reporters of new coach Mike Yeo’s new up-tempo system. "I think it makes our team looks faster. The 'D' are moving the puck well. Guys are in position."

Slow starts killed the Wild last year and another one won’t be tolerated in back-to-back games. Plus, you know the boys will be pulling for Heatley as he returns to Ottawa.

Pick: Wild

Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins (-205, N/A)

This was supposed to be Evgeni Malkin’s big year after he lost most of last season to a knee injury. With captain Crosby still ailing, NHL analysts were clamoring over each other to predict Geno was a favorite for the Art Ross and Hart trophies.

Now, that may still happen, but this isn’t the kind of start Malkin was looking for after he was forced to sit out the third period of Saturday’s game and Sunday’s contest entirely with a “lower-body” injury.

The team says it isn’t related to his injury from last season and that he may be available Tuesday night, but this has to be worrisome moving forward.

However, that’s about the only bad news coming out of the Penguins’ camp. Sidney Crosby is close to be cleared for contact and the Pens took five of six available points in their first road trip of the season.

They’ll come out flying in their home opener but we’re not going near this fat number. Stick to the puckline or hop on the under.

Pick: Under

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**Udog** · 10-11-2011, 09:29 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Texas at Detroit
The Tigers look to build on their 8-0 record in Doug Fister's last 8 starts. Detroit is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 11

Game 909-910: Texas at Detroit (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 15.036; Detroit (Fister) 16.062
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Over

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 11

Texas bullpen worked 8.1 innings Monday, but they're up 2-0 and can afford to rest guys here, if necessary. Fister lost 4-0 to Texas when he was with Seattle (July 15); he beat the Rangers 5-4 August 3 in his first start for Detroit (three runs/seven IP). Fister is 7-0, 0.94 in his last eight starts (Game 1 of Bronx series was a relief appearance). Lewis is 4-0, 4.31 in his last five starts, 2-0, 2.95 in his last three; he allowed 14 runs in 7.1 IP in two horrible outings against the Tigers this season.

MLB

Tuesday, October 11

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Trend Report
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8:05 PM
TEXAS vs. DETROIT
Texas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Texas
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Detroit's last 16 games

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MLB

Tuesday, October 11

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Hot lines: Tuesday's best MLB bets
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Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-125, 8.5)

You have to hand it to the Texas Rangers - they won’t back down when their backs are against the wall.

Down 3-2 in the seventh inning of Game 2, Nelson Cruz evened the affair with a blast off the foul pole that spelled the end of Max Scherzer’s night. Then for an encore, Cruz hit a walk-off grand slam in the 11th inning to give Texas a two-game lead heading into Tuesday’s date in Detroit.

Nelson definitely has some pop in his bat, but manager Ron Washington wasn’t expecting this type of onslaught from his slugger, who now has three homers and six RBIs in the series.

"One swing can always click your timing back, but don't put him coming out of a slump on a home run," Washington told reporters of Cruz, who had just one hit in the first round of the playoffs. "You can judge it if he starts popping singles around the ballpark, to left and right. Then you can say he's coming out of it."

Well, it’s safe to say Cruz is definitely out of his skid now and sends Texas into Game 3 riding a ton of momentum.

Delmon Young’s surprise return to the lineup was supposed to give the Tigers a boost Monday, but he couldn’t get much going at the dish without a hit in four at bats.

The Tigers will need another gem from Doug Fister in this one after he fired five solid innings last Thursday in the ALDS. We still think this is going to be a long series, so we’ll jump on the home chalk.

Pick: Tigers

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**Udog** · 10-11-2011, 09:33 AM

Instant replay: NCAAF and NFL betting recap

Each week, we’ll recap all the betting information you need to know from the college and pro football action that went down over the weekend.

NFL oddsmakers have to be pulling their hair out at this point in the season trying to set totals high enough to get balanced action. Pro pigskin saw another big scoring weekend while favorites reclaimed dominance in college football after a huge week for underdogs the week before.

Here’s a recap of what you may have missed.

NCAAF betting recap

Underdogs ruled Week 5 of college football betting with a 35-16-1 mark against the spread, snapping a run of three straight weeks that favorites had the advantage. Favorites got back to their winning ways this past weekend by going 33-20 against the spread, with home chalks going 29-2 straight up.

Just nine underdogs won outright, though home underdogs were 11-10 against the spread.

Boise State cruised to a 50-point win at Fresno State to get the action going Friday night before Oklahoma hammered Texas 55-17 as an 11-point favorite, LSU drilled Florida 41-11 as a 14-point favorite, and Arkansas smoked Auburn 38-14 as 10-point favorite.

That follows the recent trend in which the top 10 teams in the AP poll are currently 41-14-1 (77.4 percent) against the spread so far this season.

NFL betting recap

Another week, another week of cashing over bets for NFL handicappers. This week the over was 9-3 after Sunday’s action, pushing its season record to 48-27 (64 percent).

Meanwhile, favorites were 7-5 against the number and four underdogs won outright.

The Oakland Raiders sealed an emotional victory over the Houston Texas a day after owner Al Davis died, picking up a 25-20 win on the road as a 4.5-point underdog. The Texans had a chance to escape with the win on the last play of the game but Matt Schaub was intercepted in the end zone.

One of the other big upsets on the board was Seattle’s 36-25 win over the New York Giants as a 10-point underdog. Eli Manning threw three touchdowns but also had three interceptions and Seattle finished strong with 20 points in the fourth quarter to seal the victory.

Fantasy performers of the week

Without starting running back Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger shrugged off a wonky wheel and a questionable offensive line to throw for 228 yards and five touchdowns in a 38-17 win over Tennessee. Pittsburgh was set as a 3-point home favorite.

Meanwhile, Matt Cassel had the best day of his season with 257 passing yards and four touchdowns, leading the Chiefs to an upset win at Indianapolis.

The Minnesota Vikings got back to what they’re good at – handing the ball to Adrian Peterson. He responded with 122 rushing yards and three touchdowns in a 34-10 win at home to Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite.

**Udog** · 10-11-2011, 09:36 AM

NFL Week 5 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

As a recently-converted member of Raider Nation, Al Davis put more frowns on my face than smiles the last five years.

The dumbfounding draft picks, the crippling coaching hires, the tumultuous trades. I once wrote that the Raiders wouldn’t make the playoffs again until Mr. Davis was six feet under.

Maybe big Al was thinking the same thing when he took his last breath.

As news of his passing broke I felt shamefully selfish. I knew the line was going to drop. Unforeseen death immediately summons motivation. And that “M” word always affects handicapping.

But I had waited all week to play the Raiders. I missed the opener and I thought the spread would get back to six Sunday.

The spread dropped, I teased, but in the end it didn’t matter. The Silver and Black won an emotional game for the Gipper. One we’ll always remember.

This is going to be the beginning of a new era in Oakland. Al Davis barely got to see his creation come to life, but the right man is finally there to lead it. The Raiders will win the West in 2011.

Rest in peace big Al, you just won baby.

THE GOOD…

Tear down the billboards; it’s Tebow Time in Mile High.

Timmy might not be a better quarterback than Kyle Orton, but he’s not any worse. He certainly gives them more options with mobility, and he’s a leader.

Immediately after Tebow rallied the Donkeys within two he was on the sidelines inspiring the defense. This roster is full of youth and it looked euthanized until Timmy pumped life into it. Orton wouldn’t even put on a headset after he got benched.

The defense failed and Denver didn’t cover the closing spread. But we all had the feeling. If there was another minute on the clock, destiny would have taken over.

I’m not sure I can bet against Saint Tebow. He’s got a halo over his head and God in his corner. The Almighty has one big paw, and he’s probably a lefty.

THE BAD…

I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again; Corn on the Kolb is not the answer in the Desert.

The Cards wish they could redo that trade. Those young corners would learn a lot from DRC. And any quarterback would be a better option at this point. Matt Leinart is laughing somewhere.

Kolb hasn’t sniffed 300 since the first week and he missed half of his 42 passes Sunday. He has more interceptions than touchdowns this year. Cornball is in the same should-be-holding-a-clipboard tier as Dirty Sanchez, Cassel and Campbell.

Even with a go-to receiver like Fitz, the Cards can’t sustain drives. They’ve only converted 31 percent of their third downs the last three weeks, and none of their pointspreads.

One coach and player took game management lessons from the Mad Hatter this weekend.

Ron Rivera’s brain fart cost the kittens big time. The Saints weren’t going to get off a field goal before halftime but Rivera inexplicably called a timeout with two seconds left. The ageless John Kasay booted a 46-yarder, which ended up being the difference in the game.

No telling what Ron was smokin’ with that call but the internal clock in Mike Vick’s head must be stuck on prison time.

He had nine seconds to fire a pass into the end zone before the Eagles attempted a field goal. He ducked, he danced, the ball hit the back wall and the clock hit zeroes. Wow. Even Colt McCoy knows how to budget time for a game-winning boot.

A rookie head coach and a quarterback trying to do too much are recipes for precarious scenarios.

THE UGLY…

I’ve talked ad nauseam about the degree of suck along the Eagles offensive line. That fact hasn’t changed, but the defense could be even worse.

A three-legged dog could run on this team. The Bills saw more gaping holes Sunday than a Vivid film set. And I’ve seen better tackle on a fishing line.

The Juan Castillo experiment has failed. Why are we surprised? Whoever thought an O-line coach could morph into a defensive coordinator overnight shouldn’t be making decisions for a pro football team.

Even the pass defense, which was supposed to be strong, is suspect. One Philly beat wrote that Nnamdi “looks lost” in zone coverage. Mr. Harvard only missed six of his 27 attempts against that “shutdown” secondary.

I leaned toward the Bills +3 in my Week 4 column, citing that the Eagles were still overvalued. One oddsmaker said that the “public perception is that Philly is going to break out, and that’s what we put our numbers on.” This might not stop any time soon.

The Ream Team continues to bend over its backers. They should be underdogs against a rested Redskins tribe.

THE LEANS…

Redskins PK vs. Eagles - See above. Already locked in this lean. Defense in D.C. is for real.

Dolphins +7 ½ at Jets - Might keep fading the flyers until they prove me wrong.

NFL Record: 12-3-2, $900

**Udog** · 10-11-2011, 11:03 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 11

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FLORIDA (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (2-0-0-1, 5 pts.) - 10/11/2011, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 7-1 (+5.6 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 7-1-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.7 Units)

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MINNESOTA (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at OTTAWA (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/11/2011, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 21-11 ATS (+32.4 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OTTAWA is 28-19 ATS (+47.1 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 131-106 ATS (+240.6 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 46-39 ATS (+93.6 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.
OTTAWA is 3-12 ATS (+17.1 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 2-0 (+2.1 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 2-0-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.2 Units)

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**Udog** · 10-11-2011, 11:04 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 11

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TEXAS (101 - 67) at DETROIT (98 - 71) - 8:05 PM
COLBY LEWIS (R) vs. DOUG FISTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 93-70 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 67-48 (+14.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 43-28 (+11.8 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
DETROIT is 45-33 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 23-13 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 99-72 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 103-63 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 96-61 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 75-42 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 75-43 (+19.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 48-33 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TEXAS is 84-62 (+21.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 102-66 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 36-18 (+14.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-5 (+1.4 Units) against TEXAS this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.4 Units)

COLBY LEWIS vs. DETROIT since 1997
LEWIS is 2-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 7.76 and a WHIP of 1.913.
His team's record is 2-3 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+2.9 units)

DOUG FISTER vs. TEXAS since 1997
FISTER is 2-3 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 4.38 and a WHIP of 1.256.
His team's record is 2-4 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)

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**Udog** · 10-11-2011, 11:09 AM

NHL
Short Sheet

Tuesday, October 11

FLORIDA at PITTSBURGH, 7:30 PM ET VERSUS
FLORIDA: n/a
PITTSBURGH: n/a

MINNESOTA at OTTAWA, 7:30 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 26-16 SU off an Under
OTTAWA: 7-13 SU as favorite

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 10-11-2011, 11:10 AM

MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, October 11

AL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 3 - TEX Leads 2-0
TEXAS at DETROIT, 8:05 PM ET FOX
LEWIS: 25-21 TSR as underdog
FISTER: 12-1 Under after giving up 1 or less ER last outing

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 10-11-2011, 11:13 AM

NFL odds: Week 6 opening line report

My, we are stubborn.

When it comes to things we believe about the NFL, we stick to the script. After all, we wrote the script, and we know our stuff. We’ll tweak it if we have to.
What we really should do is burn it.

Of course I’m talking about the Eagles, the same Eagles who added six Pro Bowlers in the offseason, became Super Bowl co-favorites, and laid points no matter how badly they performed -- or whom they were playing.

Hand the defense to a buddy who hadn’t coached defense since the 1980s? No problem.

Handle the ball like a hot potato? No worries. Treat run defense as an afterthought? It’s all good.

With nearly one-third of the season done, however, reality is overtaking the hype.

The mistake-prone Eagles, who drew the cash again as 3-point favorites in Buffalo, might not be favored Sunday for the first time. Caesars Palace opened their Week 6 game at Washington as a Pick-em. Other books list the ‘Skins as 1-point favorites.

Philly is 0-4 straight up and against the spread since beating hapless St. Louis.

“This is a team whose line value has been inflated because of that perception [that it is super-talented],” Todd Fuhrman, Caesar’s race and sportsbook supervisor, told ***********. “What we’ve seen the last few weeks doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season. Turnovers continue to mount, and they just can’t stop the run.”

So why not make them a field-goal dog against a 3-1 home team coming off a bye?

“They’re still a public team, so you can’t adjust the line too much,” Fuhrman said. “And this is essentially their last stand.”

The Eagles remind Fuhrman of last year’s Miami Heat, who were way overvalued at the start of the season.

“The difference is the Heat had 82 games to get things right,” Fuhrman said. “In the NFL a slow start seals your fate.”

Las Vegas handicapper and line consultant David Malinsky said Philly remains a “difficult assessment.”

“For all their faults, the Eagles are +38 in first downs and +468 in yards over their opponents, among the best in each category,” he told ***********. “So the bettors can see their potential, and will likely continue to look to them to find it. All the while there were serious mental mistakes Sunday that had nothing to do with bad bounces, and indicate that their poor start may be getting in their heads. They may not have the maturity to stay the course.”

The Las Vegas-based Sports Club recommended the Eagles as 1.5-point favorites. Founder Pete Korner had Washington as a 1-point favorite, but his fellow oddsmakers all had Philly.

“People do bet ‘em – that’s why we recommended them as the favorite,” Korner told ***********. “Something is not clicking there, but the perception is still that they’re very good and they’re going to break out in a big way. They have a lot of talent and they still attract money.”

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

St. Louis at Green Bay (-14.5, 48), Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-13, 40.5)

The Rams could get even more points by kickoff. They’re so feeble offensively (11.5 ppg), thanks to injuries and “boy genius” coordinator Josh McDaniels.

“The focus has gotta always be on playing our best in November and December,” McDaniels curiously told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. It’s still October last time we checked.

Beat writer Jim Thomas noted the Rams sometimes struggle “just to get lined up right and get the ball snapped.”

SMALLEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia at Washington (-1, 48)

The Redskins are 6-2 ATS in division games since the start of last season. Washington made less splashier offseason additions – G Chris Chester, DLs Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen, DBs Josh Wilson and O.J. Atogwe -- but they’re paying off.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Dallas at New England (-7, 54)

These teams haven’t played since 2007, when they combined for 75 points in a 48-27 Pats win.

New England has scored at least 30 points in 13 straight regular-season games, posting an 11-2 O/U mark. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are on a 15-2 O/U tear dating to last year.

You won’t see a worse matchup of secondaries all season.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at Cincinnati (-7, 39.5), Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-13, 40.5)

All four of these teams put up at least 20 points Sunday.

Curtis Painter has great chemistry with Pierre Garcon, and rookie A.J. Green is showing why he was the first wideout drafted.

Under coach Mike Tomlin, the over is 16-10-1 in Pittsburgh’s division games.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-12-2011, 12:58 AM

NFL Spread Sheet: Over and over again

Oddsmakers set the highest NFL totals we’ve ever seen last week, and guess what? Nine of 13 games still went over.

So now they’ve shattered another record. Based on *********** data, this week’s average total is a whopping 46.4.

You can’t blame oddsmakers. They’ve got to do something to slow down the over train that’s cashing at a 63.2 percent clip (48-28-1).

Week 6’s highest total, Cowboys-Pats, opened at 54 and is already 55 at many books. The teams have combined to post 33-8 O/U mark (80.5 percent) since the start of last season.

“It’s getting to the point where you wonder how high you can make it,” Todd Fuhrman, Caesars Palace race and sportsbook supervisor, told ***********. “Even when we set numbers in the 50s, they’re going over.”

One play in the Jets-Patriots game said it all.

Darrelle Revis and Patriots wideout Deion Branch got their feet tangled late in the first half. Officials flagged Revis for illegal contact. It was a highly questionable call, and it went against the best corner in the game.

In the NFL, offense gets the benefit of the doubt.

Revis wasn’t alone. Refs flagged three other Jets’ defensive backs for illegal contact or pass interference Sunday.

“All those flags just keep extending drives,” Fuhrman said. “How is a defense supposed to stop a high-profile passing attack?”

Especially when stars like Brian Urlacher are flagged for phantom helmet-to-helmet hits (see: Monday night at Detroit). Trying to protect players, the league has boosted scoring even more.

Fuhrman acknowledges that the totals haven’t risen quickly enough.

“There’s just a perception out there that there’s going to be a regression to the mean, that defenses are going to catch up,” he said.

Las Vegas handicapper and line consultant David Malinsky summed up the linesmakers’ quandary.

“The oddsmakers continue to set higher totals each week, but still not enough,” he said. “They want to make sure their lines are simply not out of the ballpark, and that has not been the case: Overs cashed at a 9-2 rate going into the Sunday night game, but of those 11, six finished within a TD of the projection. So they are not too far off, but will have to continue to move them higher.

“Right now we see such hesitancy from the defenses that the notion that they will adjust and get the numbers more back towards normal may be an erroneous hypothesis,” Malinsky added. “Guys who spent their careers playing a certain way just are not adjusting well to the reduced limits on contact.”

Emboldened receivers are averaging 140 yards after contact per game, 25 more than in 2010, according to advancednflstats.com. That’s an increase of 22 percent.

Teamrankings.com has a database that goes back to 1985. The site said Week 5’s average total of 45.3 was the highest ever -- just above the 45.1 average for Week 9 of 2009, and the 45.0 average for Week 3 of 1985.

Vegas oddsmaker Pete Korner said bettors “are playing the way they should be, and they’re winning,” noting the overs have helped many bettors cash parlays and teasers.

But he also added: “We just can’t go from the numbers we’ve had and raise ‘em 10 points. That’s not going to create two-way action. We’re trying to find an area that’s in the middle.”

Even after the Sunday night and Monday night games stayed under, the over is 8-3-1 in prime-time games.

No team epitomizes the over trend more than Buffalo. All five Bills’ games have gone over, and by an average of 11.2 points.

Perhaps that’s why the Bills-Giants game, which opened at 49.5, is already at 50.5 or 51 depending on the book.

All five of Buffalo’s second halves also have gone over.

Maybe in December, brutal cold and swirling winds will do what NFL defenses have not been able to do so far.

HALFTIME BETTING

Other strong second-half trends are emerging.

Jacksonville has not covered any second half this season. Sunday, the Jaguars lost the second half 17-7 as a 3-point home dog to Cincy. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS in the second half.

The Lions - who still have not lost a game ATS since Thanksgiving 2010, including preseason - are 5-0 ATS in second-half action. They outscored the Bears 17-3 as 6-point favorites.

Minnesota snapped its 0-4 ATS skid in second-half action on Sunday. The Vikes, getting three points, lost the second half 7-6 to Arizona after building a 28-3 lead.

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Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/11 (MLB, WNBA, NHL, CFL, Misc.)

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/11 (MLB, WNBA, NHL, CFL, Misc.)

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