Tweet
Right Angle CFB...No CBB yet
1 UNIT plays:
Virginia Tech -2.5
Washington State +9.5
Wisconsin/Auburn OVER 45.5
Maryland -3
Miami, Fla +1.5
Oklahoma/LSU UNDER 49
2 UNIT play:
Michigan +6.5
California vs Virginia Tech (-2.5) - Insight Bowl - Phoenix, AZ - December 26th
I like the Hokies chances of bouncing back from a disappointing finish to their season with a win over Cal in their bowl game. Tech lost four of their last six games and failed to cover the spread in four straight to end the season but still are a very good football team. They finished 8-4, all four losses came against teams going to bowls, and three were on the road. In November 1st home game the Hokies showed what they are capable of dominating perhaps the most talent laden team in the nation, Miami Fla, 31-7. Virginia Tech has not finished a season with a negative turnover ratio since 1996, but finished -1 this season. A -3 ratio in final six games can be blamed for their disappointing finish as much as anything. Junior running back Kevin Jones and senior center Jake Grove are consensus All-American's. Jones has already declared himself eligible for the NFL draft so this will be his final game in a Hokie uniform. Coach Frank Beamer calls this the most celebrated group of performers he has ever had at Tech. QB Bryan Randall is a dual threat to run and pass, he is very mobile, can throw on the run, and is accurate enough to keep defenses honest. They will run some option to keep defenses off balance which makes RB Jones even more dangerous. Freshman RB Marcus Vick will come into the game sporadically and has big play capability. The Hokie defense is always strong and this unit is very experienced as they began the year with nine returning starters. Defensive coordinator Bud Foster has been here since 1995 and is a very good one. He turned down Florida to stay here. On media day for this bowl game Foster called out his team for its recent poor showings by saying they had some selfish players. It sounds like a ploy to get his team motivated and I am expecting an inspired effort with lots of gang tackling from this defense come gameday. I have tons of respect for Cal and head coach Jeff Tedford and young sophomore QB Aaron Rodgers is going to be a good one, but he still only is a sophomore and in his first season as a Division 1 player. It will be a couple of years before Cal is able to compete with an elite program like Virginia Tech. The Bears did lose 6 games this season, and the Pac-10 was very weak. Bears finished the season winning four of last five games, but all we against losing teams. The last time Cal saw a running back near the quality of Tech's Kevin Jones was against Oregon State. They were dominated by the Beavers 35-21 and it would not have been that close if not for a Cal interception runback for a touchdown. OSU's Stephen Jackson finished with 227 yards on 35 carries for a 6.4 yard average. Virginia Tech's running game is even more dangerous with more speed, a mobile QB, and occasional option. When Cal upset USC they got 7 catches for 104 yards from receiver Jonathan Makonnen but the next week he decided to redshirt because of pain in his foot. With him gone the Bears do not have another receiver to take pressure off go-to man Geoff McArthur. Tech's DB's will be the best Cal has seen all year. The Cal defense has held their own all year despite only returning two starters from last season, but are still very young and even at their best very average. Various minor injuries to key defensive players have hurt. Virginia Tech head coach Beamer following season finale loss at Virginia, "It's disappointing. We've played some great football and there have been some great moments. I think we're going to a bowl. I want to get this team back on the field and get us out of the funk we're in." Beamer is 24-9 ATS since 1996 vs non-conference opponents and 34-22 ATS off a straight up loss in his career at Virginia Tech. While the Pac-10 was as weak as it has been in sometime, the Big East was very strong this year with West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Boston College all making strides towards Miami and Virginia Tech. In the past three seasons teams from the Big East are 11-4 straight up and 10-5 ATS in bowl games including Pitt's 38-13 rout of Pac-10 foe Oregon State in last years Insight bowl.
Washington State (+9.5) vs Texas - Holiday Bowl - San Diego, CA - December 30
Of all the Pac-10 teams, the Cougars are the only team I am willing to use in the bowl games. In head coach Bill Doba's first season, Washington State all but beat Notre Dame in South Bend losing in OT by a field goal after giving the game away late in regulation, they dominated Big 12 foe Colorado, and swept through the Pac-10 schedule with only two unfortunate setbacks. They beat Oregon State 36-30 and UCLA 31-13 despite committing 7 turnovers in each game. They had an abundance of misfortune in game at USC including injury to starting QB Kegal, two over the head punt snaps, a -4 turnover ratio, and some very poor officiating. In my book I felt they played USC evenly despite what 43-16 final score indicates. The Cougars cost themselves a shot at a BCS game by blowing a 4th quarter lead at Washington in final game. In that game they committed 7 turnovers for the third time this season and this time did not survive it. Senior QB Matt Kegal (various injuries) has not played much in last three games but is expected to be healthy and ready to start. He knows the offense very well, has a strong, accurate arm, has excellent size (6-5), and is a favorite among fans and players. His receiving corps consists of three players who will probably be drafted somewhere. Devard Darling, Sammy Moore, and Scott Lunde are all seniors and have each caught a touchdown pass for over 70 yards this season. Senior RB Jonathan Smith is a physical inside runner who is also a threat receiving (298 receiving yards on the season) out of the backfield. This offense is explosive and capable of moving the ball in a hurry on anyone, but most impressive aspect of this Cougar team is their defense. The unit is as aggressive as it has ever been. Players fly around and hit hard. The unit forced 45 turnovers (3.75 per game) and held opponents to just a 24% third down conversion rate. I have respect for Texas, but not enough to justify them giving almost 10 points in this spot. The Longhorns most impressive win of the season came vs Kansas State in Austin by 4 points and they were outgained yardage wise but benefited from a blocked punt for a TD early in the game. The fact that talented Longhorn receivers BJ Johnson and Roy Williams have less than 1500 receiving yards between them befuddles me and shows that their passing game is not where it needs to be. Defensively, Texas was really tested by Texas Tech's pass offense giving up 527 total yards in second to last game of the season. They were fortunate to escape with a three point win thanks to a late touchdown drive. Texas went 1-1 straight up and 0-2 ATS vs the two best Big 12 teams and despite playing what was thought to be a weak non-conference schedule also lost to SEC foe Arkansas outright. Mack Brown is 1-3 ATS in bowl games at Texas. The Big 12 team has failed to cover in six straight Holiday Bowls by an average margin of 8.83 points (pointspread included). Washington State is a good football team that has a chance of winning this game outright. Take the points.
Wisconsin vs Auburn (OVER 45.5) - Music City Bowl - Nashville, TN - December 31
The Badgers are a definite over team. They scored 28.4ppg on average this season and gave up 23.2ppg for an average total of 51.6. Eight of their twelve games this season have easily surpassed 45.5 points. For the first time in a while the Badgers will have senior QB Jim Sorgi, junior RB Anthony Davis, and senior WR Lee Evans all healthy again. Sorgi (concussion/knee) missed one full game and parts of two others while Davis has missed five full games and parts of four others due to ankle injuries. They will be eager to get their offense going. Auburn has averaged 26.2 points per game this season and allowed just 16.5ppg. That 16.5 number sounds impressive initially, but taking away games vs Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky, and Louisiana Monroe jumps their defensive average to 20.1ppg allowed. Furthermore, they allowed 26.0ppg in their final four SEC contests. The Auburn offensive line averages 314 pounds per man and should have their way against a Wisconsin defensive line that is running very thin. Preseason starting DE Erasmus James (thought to be best pash rusher and good run stopper) was lost for the year prior to first game. Starting DE Darius Jones (one of the teams best pash rushers this season) left the season finale with an injury and although he has been upgraded to expected to start he has missed significant practice time. Coaches have moved freshman offensive lineman Joe Thomas to defense. He is currently practicing with the first unit and is expected to see a lot of playing time. Wisconsin also lost nickel back Joel Stellmacher and starting CB Brett Bell during the course of the season. Wisconsin has only faced two teams this season, Minnesota and Iowa, with comparable run attacks to Auburn's. The Gophers ran for 336 yards, while Iowa ran for 207 yards, and both games were high scoring. These are two potent offenses and both defenses are going to have to take risks in an attempt to stop one another.
Maryland (-3) vs West Virginia - Gator Bowl - Jacksonville, FL - January 1st
Prior to the start of the season, Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen called this his best team in his three years at Maryland. That is saying a lot considering his first team went 10-1 and played in the Orange Bowl and last year finished 10-3 and dominated Tennessee in the Peach Bowl. The Terrapins are starting to play like his words were true. They have won 9 of their last 10 games and the only loss was 7-3 at Georgia Tech in a game that starting QB McBrien went down with a concussion in the first half. Maryland's end of season success can be attributed to a resurgence in their running game. After rushing for only an average of 108.5 yards per game in first four ACC contests, the Terps rushed for a whopping 265.5 yards per game vs last four ACC opponents. Senior RB Bruce Perry (ACC player of the year two years ago) was slowed all season by reoccurring injuries but finally broke through in season finale with 237 rushing yards on just 25 carries. He will be looking to go out with a bang in his final college game. When the rushing game is going, everything else is easier. The passing game is more efficient and the defense has much less to do. The Terps defense has been solid all season finishing 12th in scoring defense and 16th in total yardage defense nationally. It is a bit difficult to knock West Virginia, after four early losses they certainly finished well. I do have to note that they finished the season +18 in tunrovers (third best in the country). In their key win at Boston College they were +4 in the turnover category and benefited from an interception runback and a kickoff return for touchdowns. BC outgained them by 164 yards. Their win vs Pitt was a scoring fest and they got three key interceptions and a big punt return all in the second half to break a half-time tie and draw away from the Panthers. The Mountaineer defense has been giving up a ton of yardage. They have allowed 437.5 yards per game in last four of the season. Most importantly, Maryland completely dominated West Virginia in earlier meeting THIS year by a score of 34-7. The Terps held a 498 to 156 total yard edge. The score was not turnover aided either, West Virginia actually was +2 turnovers for the game. The year prior Maryland dominated 48-17 at WVU. In his three years at Maryland, Friedgen has lost a grand total of eight ball games. Two were season openers, three were vs Florida State, and one was vs a great Spurrier led Florida team in the Orange Bowl. Maryland was sensationally prepared for last years bowl game with Tennessee, seemingly knowing Tennessee's play calling ahead of time. If that is any indication of how well they will play this year, West Virginia is in for another long day.
Michigan (+6.5) vs USC - Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA - January 1
USC did not reach the title game for a reason. The Pac-10 was horrible this year and the Trojans have only beaten three bowl teams. One was in first game of the season vs Auburn and another was against a not so good Oregon State team. USC finished second best in the nation with a +20 turnover margin. They were +10 in turnover margin alone in the three games that they actually did beat bowl teams. USC's defense does not quite have the same bite it had to start the season. Starting DE Omar Nazel was lost for the season two games back and starting LB Grootegood (ankle) and DE Udeze (shoulder) are currently listed as questionable for this. The Trojans gave up 543 total yards to Oregon State in the seaosn finale despite 5 Beaver turnovers. All year long teams have just come in and lie down for the Trojans. No chance that Michigan will do the same. The Wolverines were considered a national championship contender early in the season and could easily be undefeated if not for a wild 4 point loss at Oregon and a 3 point loss at Iowa in which they blew a big lead. Michigan won six straight games to end the season and did so impressively in blowouts of top 15 rated Purdue and top 10 rated Ohio State. They have to feel a bit disrespected coming in here as almost a touchdown underdog. They have not been this big of a dog since 1998 game at Ohio State. Michigan is sure to travel very well to their first Rose Bowl since 1997. Lloyd Carr is as good of a big game coach as there is and Michigan has won five of their last six bowl games. Lastly, USC's emotional state has to be in question. The disappointment of not making the Sugar Bowl has to weigh heavily in their minds despite the nonsense talk that they are happy to be in the Rose Bowl. The BCS is all that has been talked about for weeks. I like Michigan to win outright and the added points are only a plus.
Miami, Fla (+1.5) vs Florida State - Orange Bowl - Miami, FL - January 1
All three Florida teams were down this year but I still believe that the Hurricanes have as much individual talent as any team in the country right now. They lost twice this year, once at Virginia Tech in a game that the Hokies got a running start by scoring two first half defensive touchdowns. Their second loss was by a 10-6 score vs Tennessee in a game that first year starting QB Brock Berlin played very poorly in. He threw two key interceptions and the team lost two fumbles vs zero turnovers for the Vols. Miami outgained both of its opponents in their two losses. They have not been threatened by any team since then and were very impressive beating Pittsburgh in season finale. The final score was 28-14 but they did it in the fashion of a stakes horse breaking its maiden and being held the entire stretch drive. FSU started the season strong, and looked to possess one of the top defenses in the country, but late in the season the defense performed very poorly. They were beaten soundly 26-10 at Clemson, the following week were inches away from losing to NC State for a third straight season and needed OT to win at home, and in their final game benefited from bad officiating to escape with a 38-34 win over Florida. After allowing just 10.7ppg in first nine games, they allowed 34.6ppg in final three games. Bobby Bowden has disappointed in two of last three bowl appearances. Look for the Hurricanes to eliminate bad taste in their mouth from earlier losses and prove they are still a national power with a quality win on their home field.
LSU vs Oklahoma (UNDER 49) - Sugar Bowl - New Orleans, LA - January 4th
I am one of the few who believe the two best teams are playing in the national championship game, but before I even tried to pick a winner between these two, the UNDER jumped out at me. These are easily the two best defenses in the country, but more importantly both head coaches are two of the best defensive minds in the game. Given all of the added time to prepare it is scary to think how well these two defenses are capable of performing. Bob Stoops is responsible for one of the best defensive gameplans ever in the 2000 Orange Bowl when the Sooners held a high powered Florida State offense to zero offensive points in a 13-2 win for the national championship. In the following years Cotton Bowl, OU held Arkansas to just 3 points, and in last years Rose Bowl OU shutout Washington State for three quarters before giving up a late touchdown and late kickoff return. That is 19 points allowed in three bowl games and this years OU defense is as good or better than any of the past three. LSU comes in #1 in the country in scoring defense despite their tough SEC schedule. Only one team even scored more than 20 points vs LSU this year. That was Arkansas scoring 24 in a 55-24 game. The top three SEC defenses besides LSU were Georgia, Auburn, and Tennessee. LSU did not play Tennessee, but regular season meetings with Georgia and Auburn resulted in 27 & 38 total points scored respectively. If Stoops was not available, LSU head coach Nick Saban would be my second choice to devise a defensive gameplan. Points are sure to be at a premium in this matchup.
1 UNIT plays:
Virginia Tech -2.5
Washington State +9.5
Wisconsin/Auburn OVER 45.5
Maryland -3
Miami, Fla +1.5
Oklahoma/LSU UNDER 49
2 UNIT play:
Michigan +6.5
California vs Virginia Tech (-2.5) - Insight Bowl - Phoenix, AZ - December 26th
I like the Hokies chances of bouncing back from a disappointing finish to their season with a win over Cal in their bowl game. Tech lost four of their last six games and failed to cover the spread in four straight to end the season but still are a very good football team. They finished 8-4, all four losses came against teams going to bowls, and three were on the road. In November 1st home game the Hokies showed what they are capable of dominating perhaps the most talent laden team in the nation, Miami Fla, 31-7. Virginia Tech has not finished a season with a negative turnover ratio since 1996, but finished -1 this season. A -3 ratio in final six games can be blamed for their disappointing finish as much as anything. Junior running back Kevin Jones and senior center Jake Grove are consensus All-American's. Jones has already declared himself eligible for the NFL draft so this will be his final game in a Hokie uniform. Coach Frank Beamer calls this the most celebrated group of performers he has ever had at Tech. QB Bryan Randall is a dual threat to run and pass, he is very mobile, can throw on the run, and is accurate enough to keep defenses honest. They will run some option to keep defenses off balance which makes RB Jones even more dangerous. Freshman RB Marcus Vick will come into the game sporadically and has big play capability. The Hokie defense is always strong and this unit is very experienced as they began the year with nine returning starters. Defensive coordinator Bud Foster has been here since 1995 and is a very good one. He turned down Florida to stay here. On media day for this bowl game Foster called out his team for its recent poor showings by saying they had some selfish players. It sounds like a ploy to get his team motivated and I am expecting an inspired effort with lots of gang tackling from this defense come gameday. I have tons of respect for Cal and head coach Jeff Tedford and young sophomore QB Aaron Rodgers is going to be a good one, but he still only is a sophomore and in his first season as a Division 1 player. It will be a couple of years before Cal is able to compete with an elite program like Virginia Tech. The Bears did lose 6 games this season, and the Pac-10 was very weak. Bears finished the season winning four of last five games, but all we against losing teams. The last time Cal saw a running back near the quality of Tech's Kevin Jones was against Oregon State. They were dominated by the Beavers 35-21 and it would not have been that close if not for a Cal interception runback for a touchdown. OSU's Stephen Jackson finished with 227 yards on 35 carries for a 6.4 yard average. Virginia Tech's running game is even more dangerous with more speed, a mobile QB, and occasional option. When Cal upset USC they got 7 catches for 104 yards from receiver Jonathan Makonnen but the next week he decided to redshirt because of pain in his foot. With him gone the Bears do not have another receiver to take pressure off go-to man Geoff McArthur. Tech's DB's will be the best Cal has seen all year. The Cal defense has held their own all year despite only returning two starters from last season, but are still very young and even at their best very average. Various minor injuries to key defensive players have hurt. Virginia Tech head coach Beamer following season finale loss at Virginia, "It's disappointing. We've played some great football and there have been some great moments. I think we're going to a bowl. I want to get this team back on the field and get us out of the funk we're in." Beamer is 24-9 ATS since 1996 vs non-conference opponents and 34-22 ATS off a straight up loss in his career at Virginia Tech. While the Pac-10 was as weak as it has been in sometime, the Big East was very strong this year with West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Boston College all making strides towards Miami and Virginia Tech. In the past three seasons teams from the Big East are 11-4 straight up and 10-5 ATS in bowl games including Pitt's 38-13 rout of Pac-10 foe Oregon State in last years Insight bowl.
Washington State (+9.5) vs Texas - Holiday Bowl - San Diego, CA - December 30
Of all the Pac-10 teams, the Cougars are the only team I am willing to use in the bowl games. In head coach Bill Doba's first season, Washington State all but beat Notre Dame in South Bend losing in OT by a field goal after giving the game away late in regulation, they dominated Big 12 foe Colorado, and swept through the Pac-10 schedule with only two unfortunate setbacks. They beat Oregon State 36-30 and UCLA 31-13 despite committing 7 turnovers in each game. They had an abundance of misfortune in game at USC including injury to starting QB Kegal, two over the head punt snaps, a -4 turnover ratio, and some very poor officiating. In my book I felt they played USC evenly despite what 43-16 final score indicates. The Cougars cost themselves a shot at a BCS game by blowing a 4th quarter lead at Washington in final game. In that game they committed 7 turnovers for the third time this season and this time did not survive it. Senior QB Matt Kegal (various injuries) has not played much in last three games but is expected to be healthy and ready to start. He knows the offense very well, has a strong, accurate arm, has excellent size (6-5), and is a favorite among fans and players. His receiving corps consists of three players who will probably be drafted somewhere. Devard Darling, Sammy Moore, and Scott Lunde are all seniors and have each caught a touchdown pass for over 70 yards this season. Senior RB Jonathan Smith is a physical inside runner who is also a threat receiving (298 receiving yards on the season) out of the backfield. This offense is explosive and capable of moving the ball in a hurry on anyone, but most impressive aspect of this Cougar team is their defense. The unit is as aggressive as it has ever been. Players fly around and hit hard. The unit forced 45 turnovers (3.75 per game) and held opponents to just a 24% third down conversion rate. I have respect for Texas, but not enough to justify them giving almost 10 points in this spot. The Longhorns most impressive win of the season came vs Kansas State in Austin by 4 points and they were outgained yardage wise but benefited from a blocked punt for a TD early in the game. The fact that talented Longhorn receivers BJ Johnson and Roy Williams have less than 1500 receiving yards between them befuddles me and shows that their passing game is not where it needs to be. Defensively, Texas was really tested by Texas Tech's pass offense giving up 527 total yards in second to last game of the season. They were fortunate to escape with a three point win thanks to a late touchdown drive. Texas went 1-1 straight up and 0-2 ATS vs the two best Big 12 teams and despite playing what was thought to be a weak non-conference schedule also lost to SEC foe Arkansas outright. Mack Brown is 1-3 ATS in bowl games at Texas. The Big 12 team has failed to cover in six straight Holiday Bowls by an average margin of 8.83 points (pointspread included). Washington State is a good football team that has a chance of winning this game outright. Take the points.
Wisconsin vs Auburn (OVER 45.5) - Music City Bowl - Nashville, TN - December 31
The Badgers are a definite over team. They scored 28.4ppg on average this season and gave up 23.2ppg for an average total of 51.6. Eight of their twelve games this season have easily surpassed 45.5 points. For the first time in a while the Badgers will have senior QB Jim Sorgi, junior RB Anthony Davis, and senior WR Lee Evans all healthy again. Sorgi (concussion/knee) missed one full game and parts of two others while Davis has missed five full games and parts of four others due to ankle injuries. They will be eager to get their offense going. Auburn has averaged 26.2 points per game this season and allowed just 16.5ppg. That 16.5 number sounds impressive initially, but taking away games vs Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky, and Louisiana Monroe jumps their defensive average to 20.1ppg allowed. Furthermore, they allowed 26.0ppg in their final four SEC contests. The Auburn offensive line averages 314 pounds per man and should have their way against a Wisconsin defensive line that is running very thin. Preseason starting DE Erasmus James (thought to be best pash rusher and good run stopper) was lost for the year prior to first game. Starting DE Darius Jones (one of the teams best pash rushers this season) left the season finale with an injury and although he has been upgraded to expected to start he has missed significant practice time. Coaches have moved freshman offensive lineman Joe Thomas to defense. He is currently practicing with the first unit and is expected to see a lot of playing time. Wisconsin also lost nickel back Joel Stellmacher and starting CB Brett Bell during the course of the season. Wisconsin has only faced two teams this season, Minnesota and Iowa, with comparable run attacks to Auburn's. The Gophers ran for 336 yards, while Iowa ran for 207 yards, and both games were high scoring. These are two potent offenses and both defenses are going to have to take risks in an attempt to stop one another.
Maryland (-3) vs West Virginia - Gator Bowl - Jacksonville, FL - January 1st
Prior to the start of the season, Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen called this his best team in his three years at Maryland. That is saying a lot considering his first team went 10-1 and played in the Orange Bowl and last year finished 10-3 and dominated Tennessee in the Peach Bowl. The Terrapins are starting to play like his words were true. They have won 9 of their last 10 games and the only loss was 7-3 at Georgia Tech in a game that starting QB McBrien went down with a concussion in the first half. Maryland's end of season success can be attributed to a resurgence in their running game. After rushing for only an average of 108.5 yards per game in first four ACC contests, the Terps rushed for a whopping 265.5 yards per game vs last four ACC opponents. Senior RB Bruce Perry (ACC player of the year two years ago) was slowed all season by reoccurring injuries but finally broke through in season finale with 237 rushing yards on just 25 carries. He will be looking to go out with a bang in his final college game. When the rushing game is going, everything else is easier. The passing game is more efficient and the defense has much less to do. The Terps defense has been solid all season finishing 12th in scoring defense and 16th in total yardage defense nationally. It is a bit difficult to knock West Virginia, after four early losses they certainly finished well. I do have to note that they finished the season +18 in tunrovers (third best in the country). In their key win at Boston College they were +4 in the turnover category and benefited from an interception runback and a kickoff return for touchdowns. BC outgained them by 164 yards. Their win vs Pitt was a scoring fest and they got three key interceptions and a big punt return all in the second half to break a half-time tie and draw away from the Panthers. The Mountaineer defense has been giving up a ton of yardage. They have allowed 437.5 yards per game in last four of the season. Most importantly, Maryland completely dominated West Virginia in earlier meeting THIS year by a score of 34-7. The Terps held a 498 to 156 total yard edge. The score was not turnover aided either, West Virginia actually was +2 turnovers for the game. The year prior Maryland dominated 48-17 at WVU. In his three years at Maryland, Friedgen has lost a grand total of eight ball games. Two were season openers, three were vs Florida State, and one was vs a great Spurrier led Florida team in the Orange Bowl. Maryland was sensationally prepared for last years bowl game with Tennessee, seemingly knowing Tennessee's play calling ahead of time. If that is any indication of how well they will play this year, West Virginia is in for another long day.
Michigan (+6.5) vs USC - Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA - January 1
USC did not reach the title game for a reason. The Pac-10 was horrible this year and the Trojans have only beaten three bowl teams. One was in first game of the season vs Auburn and another was against a not so good Oregon State team. USC finished second best in the nation with a +20 turnover margin. They were +10 in turnover margin alone in the three games that they actually did beat bowl teams. USC's defense does not quite have the same bite it had to start the season. Starting DE Omar Nazel was lost for the season two games back and starting LB Grootegood (ankle) and DE Udeze (shoulder) are currently listed as questionable for this. The Trojans gave up 543 total yards to Oregon State in the seaosn finale despite 5 Beaver turnovers. All year long teams have just come in and lie down for the Trojans. No chance that Michigan will do the same. The Wolverines were considered a national championship contender early in the season and could easily be undefeated if not for a wild 4 point loss at Oregon and a 3 point loss at Iowa in which they blew a big lead. Michigan won six straight games to end the season and did so impressively in blowouts of top 15 rated Purdue and top 10 rated Ohio State. They have to feel a bit disrespected coming in here as almost a touchdown underdog. They have not been this big of a dog since 1998 game at Ohio State. Michigan is sure to travel very well to their first Rose Bowl since 1997. Lloyd Carr is as good of a big game coach as there is and Michigan has won five of their last six bowl games. Lastly, USC's emotional state has to be in question. The disappointment of not making the Sugar Bowl has to weigh heavily in their minds despite the nonsense talk that they are happy to be in the Rose Bowl. The BCS is all that has been talked about for weeks. I like Michigan to win outright and the added points are only a plus.
Miami, Fla (+1.5) vs Florida State - Orange Bowl - Miami, FL - January 1
All three Florida teams were down this year but I still believe that the Hurricanes have as much individual talent as any team in the country right now. They lost twice this year, once at Virginia Tech in a game that the Hokies got a running start by scoring two first half defensive touchdowns. Their second loss was by a 10-6 score vs Tennessee in a game that first year starting QB Brock Berlin played very poorly in. He threw two key interceptions and the team lost two fumbles vs zero turnovers for the Vols. Miami outgained both of its opponents in their two losses. They have not been threatened by any team since then and were very impressive beating Pittsburgh in season finale. The final score was 28-14 but they did it in the fashion of a stakes horse breaking its maiden and being held the entire stretch drive. FSU started the season strong, and looked to possess one of the top defenses in the country, but late in the season the defense performed very poorly. They were beaten soundly 26-10 at Clemson, the following week were inches away from losing to NC State for a third straight season and needed OT to win at home, and in their final game benefited from bad officiating to escape with a 38-34 win over Florida. After allowing just 10.7ppg in first nine games, they allowed 34.6ppg in final three games. Bobby Bowden has disappointed in two of last three bowl appearances. Look for the Hurricanes to eliminate bad taste in their mouth from earlier losses and prove they are still a national power with a quality win on their home field.
LSU vs Oklahoma (UNDER 49) - Sugar Bowl - New Orleans, LA - January 4th
I am one of the few who believe the two best teams are playing in the national championship game, but before I even tried to pick a winner between these two, the UNDER jumped out at me. These are easily the two best defenses in the country, but more importantly both head coaches are two of the best defensive minds in the game. Given all of the added time to prepare it is scary to think how well these two defenses are capable of performing. Bob Stoops is responsible for one of the best defensive gameplans ever in the 2000 Orange Bowl when the Sooners held a high powered Florida State offense to zero offensive points in a 13-2 win for the national championship. In the following years Cotton Bowl, OU held Arkansas to just 3 points, and in last years Rose Bowl OU shutout Washington State for three quarters before giving up a late touchdown and late kickoff return. That is 19 points allowed in three bowl games and this years OU defense is as good or better than any of the past three. LSU comes in #1 in the country in scoring defense despite their tough SEC schedule. Only one team even scored more than 20 points vs LSU this year. That was Arkansas scoring 24 in a 55-24 game. The top three SEC defenses besides LSU were Georgia, Auburn, and Tennessee. LSU did not play Tennessee, but regular season meetings with Georgia and Auburn resulted in 27 & 38 total points scored respectively. If Stoops was not available, LSU head coach Nick Saban would be my second choice to devise a defensive gameplan. Points are sure to be at a premium in this matchup.
Comment