Tweet
Wolverines, Aggies on upset alert, Identifying likely upsets and picking winners for Week 6's biggest games
By Will Harris
ESPN Insider
Quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill and Denard Robinson could both be upset victims on the road.
Every week during the season, Will Harris will conspire with the computers (using TeamRankings' game predictor) and the wiseguys to evaluate the upset possibilities in college football's most compelling games -- and give his picks for who'll come out on top.
It's all about confidence
Three teams fell out of the Associated Press Top 25 rankings last week -- the South Florida Bulls, Baylor Bears and TCU Horned Frogs -- while five more lost their games but remained ranked. Upset Watch forecast Baylor's tough day in Manhattan, Kan., along with Illinois' struggles, Wisconsin's big win and the Tide's draining of The Swamp.
A 6-2 week moved us to 25-14 against the spread on the season. This week we go back to the well with a pair of purple Wildcats as we preview the week's big games.
Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas is favored by 10 points
TeamRankings win odds for Auburn: 36 percent
Auburn's win in Columbia, S.C., was a reminder that there's a floor on how far the Tigers can fall after losing 16 starters, including the team's showcase stars, but don't let it deceive you into thinking that this is not a rebuilding year. Gus Malzahn's effective use of his skill players will keep Auburn in some games, but the young offensive line won't hold up all season, and the defense is a liability every week. Auburn is game and will be well-prepared again this week, but this is a five-loss team.
The Razorbacks' defense has suffered some injuries and is a poor tackling unit by SEC standards, but it is improving, and the offense can more than pick up the slack in the meantime. Quarterback Tyler Wilson's play has built confidence in the whole unit, and although the Hogs are trying to find an identity in the running game, Wilson and his uber-talented receiving corps will be enough to secure wins against the defenses on the October schedule.
The pick: Arkansas 45, Auburn 28
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Missouri Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats
Missouri is favored by 3 points
TeamRankings win odds for Kansas State: 49 percent
Gary Pinkel won't enjoy his visit to Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
Kansas State has dropped five straight against Missouri, a team the Wildcats beat 13 years running in Bill Snyder's first tenure in Manhattan. "The Legend" has the pendulum poised to swing back K-State's way, as his charges are executing at a much higher level than last year on both sides of the ball and dominating the fourth quarter. The Wildcats still lack talent at a few positions, but this team has elite chemistry and is playing with a ferocious confidence. That's especially true of a defense that boasts 2012 All-American Arthur Brown at the head of the nation's most improved linebacking corps.
Collin Klein -- dubbed the Honey Badger weeks before LSU's Tyrann Mathieu -- leads the nation in rushing attempts by a quarterback and is the unquestioned general of a physical, ground-oriented attack. Don't be surprised to see Klein have a big day throwing, though, as Snyder shows more in the passing game to exploit a Missouri secondary that has been the biggest weakness on a solid but young Tigers team.
Missouri looked good in a pair of road losses to the Oklahoma Sooners and Arizona State Sun Devils, but the Tigers figure to open 2-3 for the first time since Gary Pinkel's first year in 2001. Kansas State is an ascending program that will do at least as well as the Holiday Bowl this year and will be a major player in the Big 12 as long as one of the game's few underrated Hall of Famers roams the sideline. The Wildcats are well aware that this meeting might be the last between the two old Big Eight rivals, and a raucous crowd at Bill Snyder Family Stadium will help deliver a convincing win.
The pick: Kansas State 31, Missouri 17
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats
Michigan is favored by 7 points
TeamRankings win odds for Northwestern: 26 percent
With last week's debacle at Illinois, Northwestern is now 2-4 under Pat Fitzgerald in games it has led by 17 points. What was already a huge home game against Michigan is now shaping up as a season definer for the Wildcats.
Saturday night's sellout is the first Northwestern home game with the students on campus and is being given unprecedented treatment by the Big Ten Network. Not only is it a home night game against a ranked and undefeated team, it is also a key game for hosting recruits and the school's ongoing campaign to take back the stadium from invading fans.
Denard Robinson will get his, but this is a young Michigan team playing its first road game, and Dan Persa and Northwestern match up well across the board. This senior-laden Northwestern group may be looking at the program's last good shot at toppling Michigan for several years. The Cats have their backs against the wall and will make the most of the opportunity.
The pick: Northwestern 38, Michigan 35
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Thomas Campbell/US Presswire
The Aggies need a big week out of running back Christine Michael.
Texas A&M is favored by 9 points
TeamRankings win odds for Texas Tech: 35 percent
After back-to-back second-half collapses, it's time to put the Aggies on bubble-burst watch. Mike Sherman has rallied teams off three-game losing streaks in each of his first three years, and he'll probably have to do it again after this week.
The demoralized Aggies head to the Llano as road favorites to continue an unpleasant farewell tour of the Big 12.
Waiting for them is an undefeated Texas Tech team that can't wait to get a piece of its departing rival. Tech has mostly looked lost on defense this season, but even if Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray can't be stopped, the Red Raiders are well-equipped to shoot it out.
Texas Tech offensive coordinator Neal Brown's tempo attack will take its toll on an already-overworked A&M defense.
The pick: Texas Tech 49, Texas A&M 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quick hitters
Florida Gators (+13.5) at LSU Tigers: Florida has the defense to stay in the game, but LSU will deny the Gators the big play and eventually assert itself at the line of scrimmage.
LSU 21, Florida 10
Oklahoma Sooners (-10) vs. Texas Longhorns: Well-stocked with talent on the roster and coaching staff, the Longhorns are easily a winning team again just a year removed from the worst season of the Mack Brown era. But Brown's young squad isn't quite ready to turn the Red River tables on an experienced Sooners bunch that's playing with a championship mentality.
Oklahoma 31, Texas 21
Ohio State Buckeyes (+11) at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska is gearing up for a redemptive performance in Lincoln after getting an embarrassing Big Ten welcome at Wisconsin. An Ohio State offense in chaos will be easy pickings for the angry Huskers.
Nebraska 34, Ohio State 3
By Will Harris
ESPN Insider
Quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill and Denard Robinson could both be upset victims on the road.
Every week during the season, Will Harris will conspire with the computers (using TeamRankings' game predictor) and the wiseguys to evaluate the upset possibilities in college football's most compelling games -- and give his picks for who'll come out on top.
It's all about confidence
Three teams fell out of the Associated Press Top 25 rankings last week -- the South Florida Bulls, Baylor Bears and TCU Horned Frogs -- while five more lost their games but remained ranked. Upset Watch forecast Baylor's tough day in Manhattan, Kan., along with Illinois' struggles, Wisconsin's big win and the Tide's draining of The Swamp.
A 6-2 week moved us to 25-14 against the spread on the season. This week we go back to the well with a pair of purple Wildcats as we preview the week's big games.
Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas is favored by 10 points
TeamRankings win odds for Auburn: 36 percent
Auburn's win in Columbia, S.C., was a reminder that there's a floor on how far the Tigers can fall after losing 16 starters, including the team's showcase stars, but don't let it deceive you into thinking that this is not a rebuilding year. Gus Malzahn's effective use of his skill players will keep Auburn in some games, but the young offensive line won't hold up all season, and the defense is a liability every week. Auburn is game and will be well-prepared again this week, but this is a five-loss team.
The Razorbacks' defense has suffered some injuries and is a poor tackling unit by SEC standards, but it is improving, and the offense can more than pick up the slack in the meantime. Quarterback Tyler Wilson's play has built confidence in the whole unit, and although the Hogs are trying to find an identity in the running game, Wilson and his uber-talented receiving corps will be enough to secure wins against the defenses on the October schedule.
The pick: Arkansas 45, Auburn 28
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Missouri Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats
Missouri is favored by 3 points
TeamRankings win odds for Kansas State: 49 percent
Gary Pinkel won't enjoy his visit to Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
Kansas State has dropped five straight against Missouri, a team the Wildcats beat 13 years running in Bill Snyder's first tenure in Manhattan. "The Legend" has the pendulum poised to swing back K-State's way, as his charges are executing at a much higher level than last year on both sides of the ball and dominating the fourth quarter. The Wildcats still lack talent at a few positions, but this team has elite chemistry and is playing with a ferocious confidence. That's especially true of a defense that boasts 2012 All-American Arthur Brown at the head of the nation's most improved linebacking corps.
Collin Klein -- dubbed the Honey Badger weeks before LSU's Tyrann Mathieu -- leads the nation in rushing attempts by a quarterback and is the unquestioned general of a physical, ground-oriented attack. Don't be surprised to see Klein have a big day throwing, though, as Snyder shows more in the passing game to exploit a Missouri secondary that has been the biggest weakness on a solid but young Tigers team.
Missouri looked good in a pair of road losses to the Oklahoma Sooners and Arizona State Sun Devils, but the Tigers figure to open 2-3 for the first time since Gary Pinkel's first year in 2001. Kansas State is an ascending program that will do at least as well as the Holiday Bowl this year and will be a major player in the Big 12 as long as one of the game's few underrated Hall of Famers roams the sideline. The Wildcats are well aware that this meeting might be the last between the two old Big Eight rivals, and a raucous crowd at Bill Snyder Family Stadium will help deliver a convincing win.
The pick: Kansas State 31, Missouri 17
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats
Michigan is favored by 7 points
TeamRankings win odds for Northwestern: 26 percent
With last week's debacle at Illinois, Northwestern is now 2-4 under Pat Fitzgerald in games it has led by 17 points. What was already a huge home game against Michigan is now shaping up as a season definer for the Wildcats.
Saturday night's sellout is the first Northwestern home game with the students on campus and is being given unprecedented treatment by the Big Ten Network. Not only is it a home night game against a ranked and undefeated team, it is also a key game for hosting recruits and the school's ongoing campaign to take back the stadium from invading fans.
Denard Robinson will get his, but this is a young Michigan team playing its first road game, and Dan Persa and Northwestern match up well across the board. This senior-laden Northwestern group may be looking at the program's last good shot at toppling Michigan for several years. The Cats have their backs against the wall and will make the most of the opportunity.
The pick: Northwestern 38, Michigan 35
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Thomas Campbell/US Presswire
The Aggies need a big week out of running back Christine Michael.
Texas A&M is favored by 9 points
TeamRankings win odds for Texas Tech: 35 percent
After back-to-back second-half collapses, it's time to put the Aggies on bubble-burst watch. Mike Sherman has rallied teams off three-game losing streaks in each of his first three years, and he'll probably have to do it again after this week.
The demoralized Aggies head to the Llano as road favorites to continue an unpleasant farewell tour of the Big 12.
Waiting for them is an undefeated Texas Tech team that can't wait to get a piece of its departing rival. Tech has mostly looked lost on defense this season, but even if Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray can't be stopped, the Red Raiders are well-equipped to shoot it out.
Texas Tech offensive coordinator Neal Brown's tempo attack will take its toll on an already-overworked A&M defense.
The pick: Texas Tech 49, Texas A&M 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quick hitters
Florida Gators (+13.5) at LSU Tigers: Florida has the defense to stay in the game, but LSU will deny the Gators the big play and eventually assert itself at the line of scrimmage.
LSU 21, Florida 10
Oklahoma Sooners (-10) vs. Texas Longhorns: Well-stocked with talent on the roster and coaching staff, the Longhorns are easily a winning team again just a year removed from the worst season of the Mack Brown era. But Brown's young squad isn't quite ready to turn the Red River tables on an experienced Sooners bunch that's playing with a championship mentality.
Oklahoma 31, Texas 21
Ohio State Buckeyes (+11) at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska is gearing up for a redemptive performance in Lincoln after getting an embarrassing Big Ten welcome at Wisconsin. An Ohio State offense in chaos will be easy pickings for the angry Huskers.
Nebraska 34, Ohio State 3
Comment