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**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 11:59 AM

NFL odds: Week 5 opening line report

Remember when it took an injury to a quarterback or star runner to move an NFL line? Those days are long gone.

In the National Fling-It League, wide receivers have usurped running backs in importance. One sportsbook manager told *********** a Calvin Johnson injury would downgrade the Lions by two points. All he does is score two touchdowns a game, like clockwork.

Fortunately for Lions backers and Megatron fantasy owners, that’s a hypothetical. But Andre Johnson proved the same point when he pulled a hamstring Sunday.

MGM Mirage withheld its Oakland-Houston line while awaiting results on Johnson’s MRI. The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opened the Texans as 8-point favorites but might have opened them at 9 if Johnson was healthy. (The line is currently 7).

“It’s a totally different game now,” MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told ***********. “It’s all about the quarterbacks and the wide receivers. Nobody establishes the running game. The Cowboys have a 24-point lead and they’re throwing the ball.”

Stoneback estimated Johnson’s line value at 1.5 points. In a little over three seasons, Johnson has caught 327 balls for 4,712 yards and 27 TDs.

Steelers workhorse RB Rashard Mendenhall also left Sunday with a hamstring injury, but his absence against Tennessee likely would not affect the line at all. It’s Big Ben’s foot sprain that’s keeping Titans-Steelers off the board.

The Hilton’s Jay Kornegay said a player’s line value always depends on his backup.

“If Andre Johnson is out, the best receiver probably ends up being the tight end [Owen] Daniels,” he said. “[WRs] Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter haven’t really proven themselves. Andre is a huge weapon to lose.”

In general, Kornegay said, receivers drafted in the first round or early second round of fantasy drafts can influence a line. The list includes Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks, Vincent Jackson and Mike Wallace, in addition to Andre and Calvin Johnson.

BIGGEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-10, 41.5)

The Seahawks don’t travel well. They’re 2-15 against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog since 2009, including 0-2 this year.

If the Giants get Justin Tuck back to join Osi Umenyiora and Jason Pierre-Paul on the defensive line, Tarvaris Jackson will need every ounce of his athletic ability to stay upright.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5, 35.5), Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 42), Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (3, 48.5)

The Bills still lead the AFC East by virtue of their win over New England. The Eagles are the NFL’s biggest disappointment.

But “Philadelphia is certainly a better team right now in a lot of eyes,” Kornegay said. “Buffalo is a great story and everything, but they did just lose to Cincinnati. And they’ve squeaked out some exciting wins. As far as power ratings, they still haven’t made their mark.”

Added Stoneback: “The public perception is that Philly is going to break out, and that’s what we put our numbers on.”

Cincy-Jacksonville is one of three unattractive matchups, along with K.C.-Indy and Arizona-Minnesota.

“Some bad games this week and a lot of byes,” Stoneback said. Six teams are off.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Green Bay at Atlanta (4, 53.5)

Both teams have posted 3-1 over/under marks so far. Going back to the Super Bowl, the Packers have played over the total in eight of their last nine games, including preseason. They whipped Atlanta 48-21 on this same turf in the NFC playoffs in January.

The most telling moment of Sunday’s massacre came when wideout Greg Jennings caught the Packers’ fourth TD and acted insulted no Bronco bothered to cover him. Truth is, this receiving corps is impossible to cover.

Green Bay is scoring a league-best 37 points per game. Look for a lot more championship-belt celebrations by Aaron Rodgers.

SMALLEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5, 36)

This is the lowest total of the season even after rising from 35.5. The second-lowest also involved the Bengals, when they visited Cleveland in Week 1.
Cincinnati’s 27-17 win easily cleared the 36.5 total.

In a league where scoring has erupted, the Jags are the only team yet to produce an over.

**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:03 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

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Sunday, October 9

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 4) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (1 - 3) at MINNESOTA (0 - 4) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 3) at BUFFALO (3 - 1) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (2 - 2) at HOUSTON (3 - 1) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (3 - 1) at CAROLINA (1 - 3) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (2 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (3 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 2) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 50-29 ATS (+18.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (1 - 3) at NY GIANTS (3 - 1) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-48 ATS (-29.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (3 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 1) - 10/9/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (2 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (3 - 1) - 10/9/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 139-105 ATS (+23.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NY JETS are 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-2 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (3 - 1) at DENVER (1 - 3) - 10/9/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (4 - 0) at ATLANTA (2 - 2) - 10/9/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 10

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CHICAGO (2 - 2) at DETROIT (4 - 0) - 10/10/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:07 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 5

Sunday, 10/9/2011

KANSAS CITY at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 2-8 ATS vs. Indianapolis
INDIANAPOLIS: 5-1 ATS in October

ARIZONA at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 52-30 OVER in dome games
MINNESOTA: 4-7 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

PHILADELPHIA at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 7-4 ATS as a road fav of 7 pts or less
BUFFALO: 4-0 OVER this season

OAKLAND at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 8-2 ATS after allowing 30+ points
HOUSTON: 8-21 ATS off a home win

NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 10-2 UNDER vs div opponents
CAROLINA: 36-18 UNDER at home vs div opponents

CINCINNATI at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 6-3 OVER in October games
JACKSONVILLE: 7-4 ATS after a loss by 10+

TENNESSEE at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 6-2 OVER after a win by 14+
PITTSBURGH: 6-1 ATS off a road loss

SEATTLE at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 6-0 OVER off a home loss
NY GIANTS: 20-8 OVER against conf opponents

TAMPA BAY at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:05 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 4-1 ATS against NFC West div opponents
SAN FRANCISCO: 14-24 ATS after a 2 game road trip

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM ET
NY JETS: 28-50 ATS off a road loss
NEW ENGLAND: 8-1 OVER versus div opponents

SAN DIEGO at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 7-3 ATS as a road fav
DENVER: 2-9 ATS off a road loss

GREEN BAY at ATLANTA, 8:20 PM ET NBC
GREEN BAY: 13-4 ATS after a cover as a double digit fav
ATLANTA: 4-15 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7

Monday, 10/10/2011

CHICAGO at DETROIT, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
CHICAGO: 14-28 ATS after scoring 30+ points
DETROIT: 8-1 ATS in home games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:09 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Chiefs (1-3) @ Colts (0-4)—Banged-up Indy on short work week after strong effort came up short Monday night in Tampa; Painter played lot better than expected, but Colts still have only five TD’s on 44 drives, with 17 3/outs- they’re very weak favorite here, vs Chief club that got first win last week. KC turned ball over just once in last two games (+2) after turning it over nine times (-7) in first two games- they’ve scored only four TD’s on 42 drives, with 15 3/outs. Chiefs are 9-20 in last 29 games decided by 7 or less points- they’ve covered five of last seven as a pre-bye underdog. Colts are 10-1 in last 11 series games, winning last three by average score of 19-9; Chiefs lost last five visits here, scoring just 12.6 ppg.

Cardinals (1-3) @ Vikings (0-4)—Larry Fitzgerald comes home with Redbird club that lost last three games by total of 8 points, visiting 0-4 Viking squad that has three losses by 5 or less points, despite leading three of four games by 10+ points at half. Cardinals lost eight of last ten in series, dropping last six visits here, with last win in 1977- they lost 27-24 in OT here LY. Arizona is 3-7 in last 10 games decided by 7 or less points; they’re just 6-26 on 3rd down last two games- they need to develop an option other than Fitzgerald, since teams blanket him in key spots. Vikings don’t have a takeaway in last two games- they outscored foes 37-0 in first half of their two home games, but got outscored 50-6 after intermission.

Eagles (1-3) @ Bills (3-1)—Team that won last three Buffalo games trailed by 11+ points at half; Bills trailed 21-3/21-10 at half in two home games, but won both, outscoring opponents 59-24 in second half. Iggles might be glad to get away from restless home fans after three straight losses- they were outscored 36-6 in second half last two weeks, blowing 23-3 lead at home last Sunday. Eagles’ allowed eight TD’s, two FG’s on ten red zone drives, which is bad- they had only two TD’s on seven red zone drives last week, missing two chip shot FG’s. This is Philly’s first visit to Orchard Park since ’03- they lead series 6-5, with average total in last five meetings, 29.2. Bills (+7) won turnover battle in all four games, scoring defensive TD in each of last two games, but they’ve converted only 12 of 36 on 3rd down last three games.

Raiders (2-2) @ Texans (3-1)—Hamstring injury to Andre Johnson big blow to Texan offense. Houston won five of six series games, with all five wins by 7+ points; Oakland lost 30-17/29-6 in two visits here, last of which was in ’09. Texans are 5-2 in last seven games as home favorite, winning 34-7/17-10 at home this year, allowing two TD’s on 20 drives at Reliant- they’ve allowed total of 30 points in three points, gave up 40 in only loss, in Superdome. Raiders split pair of 3-point decisions on road this year- since ’07, they’re 19-15-1 as road dogs, but in last three games, they’ve allowed 38-24-31 points. Houston is 4-9-2 vs spread in game that followed their last 15 wins. Curious to see if Texans (180 rushing yards vs Steelers last week) can run ball vs Oakland defense (allowed 133.3 rushing yards/game over last three weeks).

Saints (3-1) @ Panthers (1-3)—New Orleans won/covered its last three games by 17-7-13 points; they’ve converted 32 of 58 (55.2%) on 3rd down this year, which is why they’ve run 34 more plays than their opponents- since 2006, they’re 13-9 as road favorite, and are 15-8-1 in last 24 games as single digit favorites. Carolina passed for 403-404-374 yards in three non-monsoon games, but the rainy game is only won they’ve won; panthers’ losses this year are by 7-7-5 points, as Newton grows into starting QB job. Saints won three of last four meetings, winning 16-14/34-3 LY, after losing six of previous seven series games- they’re 4-3 in last seven visits here. Underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in divisional games this season, home dogs 4-2. Saints scored 13 TD’s, tried 14 FG’s, have struggled little in red zone (4.50, 15th). Three of four Carolina games went over the total.

Bengals (2-2) @ Jaguars (1-3)— Jags are 9-2 in last 11 series games, with four of last six meetings decided by 4 or less points, but Jacksonville is struggling on offense with rookie Gabbert under center, scoring three TDs, trying six FGs on 45 drives, with 16 3/outs. In its last three games, Jax is just 10-41 on 3rd down. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Bengal games this year, with last three decided by total of 10 points. Cincy lost nine of last 12 games decided by 7 or less points, but they’re 3-0 vs spread as dogs this year and 11-6 vs spread in game following their last 17 wins- they’re just 7 for last 33 on 3rd down, with rookie Dalton under center- teams with rookie QBs generally struggle (which makes Newton look that much better). AFC North teams are 4-1 vs spread as non-divisional underdogs. All four Jaguar games stayed under the total.

Titans (3-1) @ Steelers (2-2)—Roethlisberger left Reliant Stadium Sunday with a boot on his foot; he has deep bruise, probably a stress fracture too, but he’ll play. Problem is Steelers have been outrushed in three of four games, were outsacked 8-1 last two weeks, but they did win only home game 24-0- they’re 21-18-1 in last 40 games as home favorite. Titans allowed 16 or less points in all four games, giving up only five TDs on 42 drives- they’re given up only 62.7 rushing yards/game the last three weeks. Steelers won three of last four series games, winning 13-10ot/19-11 last two years; Titans lost three of last four visits here, losing by 27-27-3 points- they lost their pre-bye game 59-0/33-25 the last two years. AFC South teams are 4-2 as non-divisional underdogs; AFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-4. Hasselbeck averaged 7.8+ yards/pass attempt in each of last three games.

Seahawks (1-3) @ Giants (3-1)—Home side won nine of last ten series games; Seahawks lost last five visits here, got beat 44-6/41-7 in last two games with Giants. Seattle lost its pre-bye game 27-3/20-3 last two years; they’re 3-15 vs spread in last 18 road games, losing 33-17/24-0 in first two road games this year. Giants scored 28-29-31 points in winning last three games; they’re just 6-11 vs spread in last 17 home games, but did win/cover home opener (28-16 over Rams) this year. Big Blue is 21-13 in last 34 games decided by more than 7 points- they’re 26-15 vs spread in game following their last 41 wins. Seattle is 12-27 in last 39 games decided by more than 7 points- their last two games, both at home, were decided by total of five points. NFC West teams are 4-7-1 vs spread as non-divisional underdogs.

Buccaneers (3-1) @ 49ers (3-1)—Niners were down 23-3 in 3rd quarter at Philly last week, rallied to win, as Harbaugh has instilled mental toughness needed to win close games- they outscored last two opponents 34-8 in second half. Long road trip for Tampa Bay club on short work week after escaping Monday night with win over Colts; Bucs beat Minnesota 24-20 in only previous road game, after being down 17-0 at half- they’ve trailed at half in three of four games. Home side won seven of last eight Buc-49er games; Tampa Bay lost 11 of 13 visits here, winning 21-0 LY. 49ers’ last three games were decided by total of nine points- they’re already +8 in turnovers, with 3-2-3-3 takeaways and only three giveaways. Don’t forget that in only loss, 49ers led Dallas 14-0 just before half. Three of Niners’ four games went over total.

Jets (2-2) @ Patriots (3-1)— Ryan is 3-2 vs Belichick, beating him here 28-21 in LY’s playoffs, but banged-up Jets are playing on road for third week in row, following losses at Oakland/Baltimore, when they allowed 34 points both games (gave up 346 rushing yards last two games). In 56 plays on field last week, Jet offense was outscored 21-3 by Raven defense. 48 of Patriots’ last 66 wins are by more than seven points- they’ve already scored 17 TD’s (on 42 drives) but have also given up 1,910 yards, as all four foes gained 448+ total yards. Welker already has 40 catches for 610 yards, outrageous numbers; Jets did hold last three foes to 3.4/5.3/4.7 ypa; we’ll see what happens here. Over is 3-1 in both team’s games this season. Average total in Jets’ last four visits here is surprisingly high 51.8. Divisional home favorites are just 4-6 vs spread this season.

Chargers (3-1) @ Broncos (1-3)—Denver’s pass defense allowed 7.2/7.8/9.7 yards/pass attempt last three weeks to Dalton/Hasselbeck/Rodgers, could be major problem vs Rivers here. San Diego is 8-2 in last ten series games, with average total in last six 58.7- seven of last nine series games were decided by 11+ points. Bolts won four of last five visits here- they’ve scored 32+ points in five of last six series games, but lost in Foxboro in only road game so far this year. Chargers are 5-10 in last 15 games as road favorite, but their defense appears to be improved, holding last three opponents under 100 yards on ground. Over last decade, Broncos are 8-6 as home underdog; they have only one FG to show for five drives this year that started in enemy territory; before getting crushed in Lambeau last week, all three Denver games had been decided by 3 or less points.

Packers (4-0) @ Falcons (2-2)—Pack pounded Atlanta 48-21 in playoffs here LY, on way to Super Bowl title; teams split last 12 meetings, with four of last seven decided by exactly 3 points. Green Bay is on serious roll, winning all four games this year by 7+ points- they’re 11-7 in last 18 games as road favorite, 24-14-1 in game following their last 39 wins, but this is their first game this year on artificial turf. Falcons not yet firing on all cylinders; they don’t have a sack in last three games. Even in last week’s win, they let 27-7 lead turn into 30-28 nailbiter at end in Seattle, but they’ve covered four of last five as home underdog. Green Bay already has 10 TD drives of 80+ yards- that’s a lot. Over is 3-1 in both team’s games so far this season. NFC non-divisional underdogs are 4-2 vs spread this year. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-4.

Bears (2-2) @ Lions (4-0)—First Monday Night Football home game in decade for Motor City, which is fired up over Lions’ 4-0 start. Upstart Detroit won last eight games that counted, despite trailing 20-0/20-3 at half of last two games; they’ve outscored last three opponents 85-13 in second half, with defense sparking rally with two TDs of its own in Dallas last week, but they’ve lost six in row, 10 of last 12 to Bears, with three of last five setbacks by 5 or less points. Chicago won five of last six visits here; their shaky OL (allowed 15 sacks) could have trouble with crowd noise in dome. Bears ran ball 31 times for 224 yards last week, after running it total of 51 times for 161 yards in first three games. Detroit allowed average of 132 rushing yards in last three games. Average total in last five series games is 43.2- all four Detroit games this season went over total.

**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:14 PM

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Sunday, October 9

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. JACKSONVILLE
Cincinnati is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Jacksonville
Cincinnati is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cincinnati

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
New Orleans is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Carolina's last 14 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games at home
Buffalo is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. HOUSTON
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
Seattle is 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Kansas City is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Indianapolis is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
Tennessee is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Pittsburgh is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. MINNESOTA
Arizona is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Tampa Bay is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games
San Diego is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
Denver is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing San Diego

4:15 PM
NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing New England
NY Jets are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing New England
New England is 13-5 SU in their last 18 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when playing at home against NY Jets

8:20 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Green Bay's last 13 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games

Monday, October 10

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games on the road
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games at home

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**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 11:29 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Philadelphia at Buffalo
The Eagles look to take advantage of a Buffalo team that is 0-6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as an underdog of 1 to 3 points. Philadelphia is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-1 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 9

Game 405-406: Kansas City at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 125.351; Indianapolis 126.329
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 36
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+2 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Arizona at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 123.942; Minnesota 130.744
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 7; 49
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-2 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Philadelphia at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.407; Buffalo 133.235
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 53
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-1 1/2); Over

Game 411-412: Oakland at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 132.704; Houston 140.236
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 6; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6); Under

Game 413-414: New Orleans at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 139.386; Carolina 125.821
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 13 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Cincinnati at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.271; Jacksonville 127.065
Dunkel Line: Even; 41
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Tennessee at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 133.646; Pittsburgh 136.399
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2); Over

Game 419-420: Seattle at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 122.976; NY Giants 131.274
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 8 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+10); Under

Game 421-422: Tampa Bay at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 132.300; San Francisco 133.151
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Under

Game 423-424: NY Jets at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 133.161; New England 143.779
Dunkel Line: New England by 10 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New England by 9; 49
Dunkel Pick: New England (-9); Over

Game 425-426: San Diego at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 132.268; Denver 130.197
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 42
Vegas Line: San Diego 4; 46
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+4); Under

Game 427-428: Green Bay at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.393; Atlanta 134.306
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6; 57
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-5 1/2); Over

MONDAY, OCTOBER 10

Game 429-430: Chicago at Detroit (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 130.901; Detroit 140.518
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Detroit by 5; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-5); Over

**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 11:35 PM

NFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 5 betting notes
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Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6)

Why Raiders cover: They can run ball, which keeps Texans QB Matt Schaub off field. Even in a 31-19 home loss to Patriots, Oakland gained 160 yards on ground. Raiders lead league at 178.8 rushing ypg. Oakland has cashed five straight following a SU loss.

Why Texans cover: Well, it appears Arian Foster can once again run ball, after blowing up for 155 yards in win vs. Pittsburgh. Houston 5-1 ATS last six vs. Men in Black.

Total (48.5): Raiders like to play to over, with streaks of 6-2 overall and 12-4 inside AFC. But Texans on under run of 5-1 last six as a chalk.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Why Cardinals cover: They cashed last year in 27-24 loss at Minnesota, with Derek Anderson at QB. Kevin Kolb a big upgrade, going against aging Donovan McNabb. Underdog the play in last five Cards-Vikes matchups.

Why Vikings cover: 8-3-1 ATS last dozen as home favorite. Cards 6-13 ATS last 19 overall.

Total (45.5): Over looks like right move, as it’s on stretches of 43-18 with Arizona as a road pup, 4-0 with Minny as home chalk and 4-1 in this NFC rivalry.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Why Titans cover: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (foot) at less than full strength, and Pittsburgh looking old and slow, despite status as defending AFC champs. Tennessee QB Matt Hasselbeck seems revived. Underdog 7-1 ATS in last eight Titans-Steelers tilts.

Why Steelers cover: Have covered spread in last four at Heinz Field and are good bounce-back bet, with runs of 5-0 ATS after SU loss and 5-1 ATS following pointspread setback.

Total (39): Over 6-1 in Steelers’ last seven AFC contests and 7-2 last nine Pittsburgh meetings in this rivalry.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

Why Chiefs cover: Coming off victory over winless Minnesota. Todd Haley’s troops 9-4 ATS last 13 getting points. And winless Colts don’t have Peyton Manning, a gift that keeps on giving to opponents. Indy 2-6 ATS last eight at home.

Why Colts cover: Tyler Painter actually made some huge plays in Monday loss at Tampa Bay, with Indy cashing as double-digit dog for second straight week. Colts 8-2 ATS last 10 vs. K.C.

Total (39): Under 5-1 K.C.’s last six as pup and 11-1-1 Chiefs’ last 13 roadies as dog of three or less. Last four Chiefs-Colts contests in Indy went under.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)

Why Bengals cover: Because Jags are favored despite averaging league-worst 9.8 ppg, combining for meager 23 points in last three outings (7.7 ppg). Cincy 6-1 ATS last seven overall and 5-0 ATS last five catching points. Jacksonville 1-6 ATS last seven overall.

Why Jaguars cover: Have hit five of last six ATS laying points at home.

Total (37): With two under-developed rookie QBs, game has all makings of an under. All four Jacksonville games this year have gone low.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-9.5)

Why Seahawks cover: The G-Men are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 laying points at home.

Why Giants cover: Seattle still starting Tarvaris Jackson at QB. And Seahawks rarely good making three time-zone trip to East Coast. Most recent case in point: 24-0 loss at Pittsburgh three weeks ago.

Total (43.5): Seahawks have paid over bettors 12 of last 15 overall and six of last seven on highway.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills

Why Eagles cover: They are flat-out desperate. Sexy Super Bowl pick sitting at 1-3 SU and ATS, and could be three games out in NFC East if they stumble in this spot. Bills 3-10-1 ATS last 15 as home pup.

Why Bills cover: Previously unbeaten, but got dose of reality at Cincinnati and should be ready this week. In last home game, Ryan Fitzpatrick & Co. rallied from 21-0 deficit to shock Patriots. Philly on slew of negative pointspread streaks, including 1-6 overall and 1-7 giving points.

Total (49.5): Total has gone high every game this year for Buffalo and five straight overall. Over a scorching 10-1 in Philly’s last 11 roadies.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers

Why Saints cover: Big advantage at QB, with veteran and former Super Bowl winner Drew Brees vs. Panthers rookie and top draft pick Cam Newton. In this rivalry, Saints 7-2 ATS last nine in Carolina and road team 20-8 ATS last 28.

Why Panthers cover: Newton coming along far better than expected, helping Carolina cover three of four so far. In fact, he’s passing for 374 ypg, third in league, one spot ahead of Brees (351 ypg). New Orleans 4-9 ATS last 13 NFC South games.

Total (51.5): With all the yards these two QBs rack up, over could come in, even as high as it is. But in this division rivalry, under has hit four straight overall and eight straight at Carolina. Under also 10-1 in Saints’ last 11 division tilts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

Why Buccaneers cover: At betting window, Bucs dig underdog role (6-1 ATS last seven) and road trips (15-5-1 ATS last 21).

Why 49ers cover: Confident coming off big, come-from-behind upset at Philly. Perhaps new coach Jim Harbaugh figured out how to unlock talent in QB Alex Smith. Niners 4-0-1 ATS last five.

Total (41): Over 3-1 for both teams this year and 4-0 in San Fran’s last four at Candlestick. But under 4-1 Bucs’ last five on highway.

San Diego Chargers (-4) at Denver Broncos

Why Chargers cover: Because that’s what they generally do in this AFC West rivalry, going 7-1-2 ATS last 10. Philip Rivers is a very good QB for San Diego. Kyle Orton is not – after winning his first six starts for Broncos, he’s gone 6-20. Denver 11-27-2 ATS last 40 at Mile High.

Why Broncos cover: This is like a traffic cop at an accident, telling bystanders, “Nothing to see here.” But if we must: Chargers on ATS skids of 1-4-1 overall and 2-6-1 on the road.

Total (46): With Denver involved, over constantly in play, like in last week’s 49-23 loss at Green Bay. Over on runs for Broncos of 7-1 overall, 10-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in Denver vs. Chargers.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9.5)

Why Jets cover: That’s a lot of points for a team that reached past two AFC title games. And road team 18-7-1 ATS last 26 in this rivalry.

Why Patriots cover: Jets are a mess. Mark Sanchez not a franchise quarterback, playing behind sieve-like offensive line.

Total (49.5): Both teams play to over a lot. For Jets, over on surges of 9-1 in underdog role and 17-4-1 on road. QB Tom Brady and prolific Pats offense putting up 33.8 ppg this year, and over has gone 16-5-1 last 22 in Foxborough.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Why Packers cover: They play like Super Bowl champs that they are. Packers have won 10 in a row SU and gone 8-2 ATS in that stretch. One of those wins was 48-21 shellacking of Atlanta in playoffs at Georgia Dome last season.

Why Falcons cover: Revenge and desperation. Matt Ryan & Co. embarrassed in playoff beatdown, and Atlanta needs win to avoid falling below .500, especially with NFC South rivals New Orleans and Tampa playing well.

Total (53.5): Despite Packers’ penchant for scoring, under 10-3 in last 13 on highway and 7-1 in last eight as road chalk.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5)

Why Bears cover: They seem to shine under Monday night spotlight, at 5-1 ATS in last six appearances. And Detroit lacks that experience, playing first MNF game in 10 years.

Why Lions cover: If they were due for letdown, it was last week at Dallas. And they did let down for a half, before huge comeback win. Detroit favored for first time in years in this NFC North rivalry, and Jim Schwartz’s troops want whole nation to see they’re no fluke. Lions among best bets in league, with ATS streaks of 16-5-2 overall, 9-1-1 after SU win and 12-2-2 after spread-cover.

Total (47.5): Bears tend to play to under, while Lions play to over. But when these rivals meet, over 4-1 last five overall and 4-1 last five at Ford Field. Detroit’s QB-wideout connection of Matt Stafford-Calvin Johnson looks unstoppable.

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**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 11:39 PM

NFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Total Bias: Week 5's best over/under bets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As a self-confessed media junkie, one of my favorite things about the NFL has always been its sound bites.

Whether it’s due to the nature of the game, the sheer bravado of football, or underlying marketing agendas, there’s just no other league that can talk smack like the NFL.

And I can’t get enough of it.

A lot of it has to do with my love of interviews in general, guys digging to get the good stuff. But to be totally honest, it’s a guilty pleasure more than anything. I’m a sports gossip gigolo.

The highlight of the week had Washington Redskins tight end Chris Cooley (who has a grand total of 66 receiving yards this season, I might add) ripping on Tony Romo just two weeks after Romo beat the Skins with some cracked ribs and a punctured lung.

“It’s amazing, amazing to watch him choke like that." Cooley said of Romo and Dallas’ meltdown against Detroit last week on the LaVar and Dukes radio show.

“I’m just saying, I’m up 24 points in the third quarter, if I’m the head coach, I feel like I could probably just take a knee for the rest of the game, punt it away and there’s no way that Detroit’s gonna drive on you that many times.”

“The only way you’re gonna give up that many points is turnovers, right? It’s hilarious to watch him throw pick sixes too, back-to-back. I loved it.”

Well, as offside as that might have been, Cooley, top shelf of you for saying it. You’re my kind of mouthpiece.

Some interesting comments came out of Oakland this week as well. Full disclosure: I’ve always hated the Raiders. Everything about the franchise from Al “Skeletor” Davis all the way to the black hole just rubs me the wrong way.

That’s why Hugh Jackson’s comments on Monday, a day after his club lost to New England at home, really caught my attention.

"We're going to win the AFC West," Jackson told reporters. "We're going to do everything we can to get in the playoffs and go challenge for a Super Bowl. I am not backing down from that."

"I expected to be 4-0. I really did," he continued. "I'm not going to back off of that, and we're not. We're 2-2, so I'm disappointed but not discouraged because I know what's in the locker room."

The weird thing is that a few days later, I actually agree with him. Hide the women and children, gents. These Raiders aren’t going away.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6, 48.5)

With Darren McFadden and Michael Bush rolling along on the ground and a bunch of “Lamborghinis and Mercedes Benzes” at the wideout position, I really like this offense. Jason Campbell knows how to manage an attack that relies on the run and controls the clock.

I was pretty impressed the Raiders actually held the Patriots to 31 points last week and I think this defense will improve as the season moves along. With the Chargers banged up and struggling to find their stride, this is a two-horse race for the division title and the Raiders have more than enough in the stable to take make it a photo finish at the very least.

This week they’re going to see a steady diet of Houston’s stallion Arian Foster with Andre Johnson out with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, the Raiders will hand it to their own stud, Run DMC, in a battle between two of the best backs in the league.

I can hear the clock ticking already.

Pick: Under

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5, 47.5)

In the preseason, a number of Chicago’s beat writers accused the Bears, in one way or another, of having an identity crisis. They argued that Bears were trying to be a passing team without the personnel.

They cited Mike Martz’s crazy offensive schemes, the rotten offensive line, the ridiculous Roy Williams signing, the foolish trade that sent Greg Olsen to Carolina, and the ongoing contract squabble with running back Matt Forte as ammunition.

They couldn’t have been more correct.

But for one week at least, the Bears got back to what they do best – running the ball to set up play-action and causing major havoc on defense and special teams - in their win over Carolina. Forte scampered for 205 yards on the ground, leaving Cutler with just 17 passing attempts in a 34-29 victory.

Detroit’s looking at this as a huge statement game on Monday night and it’s not outrageous to think that Megatron could pull in three majors on his own. Scary stuff.

This is the game of the week, hands down.

Pick: Over

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 39.5)

OK, we get it. Pittsburgh isn’t exactly rolling out the Steel Curtain defense.

The Steelers are getting gashed on the ground and have a number of major injuries, including James Harrison sitting out with a broken eye socket. That isn’t keeping him from sharing his two cents on what’s going wrong.

"Every man needs to do his job, take care of his responsibilities," Harrison told reporters after last Sunday’s loss to Houston. "It's not the scheme, it's not other BS; it's each man doing his job, and, right now, every man is not doing his job, period."

Lost in all of this mess is the fact that the Steelers do own the No. 2 defense in the league right now. The stop unit will look to step up against the Titans, who just happen to own the best scoring defense in the league (14 points per game).

Pick: Under

Last week’s record: 1-2
Season record to date: 7-5

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**Udog** · 10-08-2011, 11:57 PM

NFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL betting weather report: Week 5
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Weather could be the final piece of your handicapping puzzle. Find out which NFL games will be impacted by Mother Nature in Week 5:

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-17, 37.5)

The forecast in Jacksonville is calling for thunderstorms and a 76 percent chance of rain. Winds will reach speeds of up to 20 mph, blowing ENE from sideline to sideline at EverBank Field. This total opened at 35.5 and has climbed two points as of Saturday afternoon.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5, 51.5)

Winds will reach speed in the mid teens at Bank of America Stadium, blowing NE from corner to corner. The total has dropped from 52.5 to 51.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 41.5)

Winds are expected to pick up in the second half at Candlestick Park. There will be a breeze, blowing West from sideline to sideline of speeds of up to 15 mph. The total has climbed from 40.5 to its current stand.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3.5, 45.5)

There is a 10 percent chance of showers in the Mile High City Sunday. The forecast is calling for rain and game-time temperatures in the low 50s. The total has dropped from 47.5 to 45.5.

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**Udog** · 10-09-2011, 12:07 AM

NFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday Night Football: Packers at Falcons
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Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5, 53)

THE STORY: Aaron Rodgers hasn’t stopped toying with defenses since he and the Green Bay Packers left the Georgia Dome with a stunningly one-sided win over the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons last January. The question is: Have the Falcons improved enough to slow him, or at least keep up offensively, this time around? The answer to both those questions will come Sunday night as Rodgers, off to a blistering start, returns to Atlanta looking to lead the defending Super Bowl champions to an 11th straight win against the Falcons.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE MOVES: Green Bay opened as a 3.5-point road favorite and has since been bet up to 5.5. The total opened at 54 and has dropped to 53 points.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (2-2): QB Matt Ryan’s new favorite target is first-round pick Julio Jones, who leads all rookies with 24 catches for 342 yards. Despite the addition of Jones, Atlanta is a middling 16th in scoring (22.5 ppg). The pass defense, which was the Achilles heel in the playoff loss to the Packers, also is still an issue (24th in the league, 275.5 ypg). Prized free agent DE Ray Edwards has yet to record a sack, and Atlanta hasn’t reached the quarterback in three games. Conversely, Atlanta's offensive line has struggled to protect Ryan, who has been sacked 13 times.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-0): The Packers, who lead in the NFL in scoring (37.0 ppg), have totaled a franchise-record 148 points over the first four games. Against Denver, Rodgers became the first player in NFL history to have 400 yards passing (408), four touchdown passes and two rushing touchdowns. He is first in the league in completion percentage (73.0) and second in touchdowns (12). WR Jordy Nelson, who signed a three-year contract extension this week, has three touchdowns in the first four games. The offense should be at full strength with both RB Ryan Grant (bruised kidney) and RT Bryan Bulaga (knee) expected to return. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it is Green Bay’s pass defense, which ranks next-to-last in the NFL (335.8 ypg).

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Packers CB Charles Woodson returned an interception for a touchdown last week. It was the 11th of his career – one shy of tying Hall of Famer Rod Woodson (no relation) for the most in NFL history.

2. Rodgers was 31 of 36 for 366 yards and three touchdowns in a 48-21 divisional-round win over Atlanta. He is 82 of 108 for 1,023 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception in three starts vs. the Falcons.

3. Ryan is 21-2 at home in three-plus years as a starter.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

PREDICTION: Packers 34, Falcons 24. Rodgers is absolutely on fire right now and the Falcons’ lack of a pass rush will be their downfall.

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**Udog** · 10-09-2011, 12:10 AM

Where the action is: NFL Week 5 lines moves

The lines are on the move for Week 5 of the NFL schedule. We talked to some Las Vegas sportsbook managers to get the inside scoop behind these adjustments:

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers - Open: -5 Move: -3

A few offshore shops had this game with the Steelers favored by 5 but most sportsbooks opened at 3.5.

With Ben Roethlisberger taking snaps on a bum ankle, money is coming in on the Titans, moving this number down to a field goal. However, not everyone is betting against the Steelers. They’re also wagering on an improved Titans team with a tough defense and a reborn Chris Johnson.

“The Titans defense is improved, but it’s not striking fear into anyone,” says Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota – Open: 42.5 Move: 45.5

The total is climbing for this West vs. North NFC matchup. Arizona scored 27 points in a loss to the Giants, getting a big day from RB Beanie Wells, who is expected to be back on the field despite a lingering hamstring injury.

“Sometimes, you can’t really explain the moves,” says Jay Kornegay, executive director of race and sportsbook for the Las Vegas Hilton.” I don’t think the total move has that much to do with Wells. He’s a good back but not three points good.”

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans – Open: -7 Move: -5

Losing Andre Johnson is a big hit for the Texans to take after such a physical game against the Steelers last week. Books factored the loss of the stud WR into the line, but bettors have still jumped all over the Raiders. Oakland will be playing with a lot of emotion following the passing of owner Al Davis Saturday.

“A lot of sharps like Oakland this week,” says Kornegay. “To many people, this is a good spot to play the Raiders with Houston coming off the tough win over the Steelers. They’re playing the ‘Steelers Factor’, with teams struggling the week after playing Pittsburgh.”

New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -9.5 Move: -7.5

It’s do or die time for the Jets, which is why bettors are taking the points and hoping New York comes up big against its AFC East rival.

“This is a huge game for them,” Kornegay says about the Jets. “The whole rah-rah Ryan movement could come down to how well the Jets play against the Patriots. This is the turning point for New York’s season.”

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Open: +6 Move +3.5

Are bettors smelling another San Diego swoon? The Chargers are winning ugly and now come to Denver to face an improving division rival. Kornegay points to the injuries to the Bolts passing game and the return to health for many of the Broncos’ key players.

“This is a much bigger game for the Broncos than it is for the Chargers,” he says.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-09-2011, 10:31 AM

NFL Underdogs: Week 5 pointspread picks

The older I get, the more I appreciate things that stay the same. There’s something comforting knowing hamburgers will always taste better with bacon, Pearl Jam will always make magnificent music and Jennifer Aniston will always be hot.

Maybe it’s because as an NFL bettor, it’s so hard to see holding patterns. Do you know who the three winless teams were after Week 4 last season? The 49ers, Lions and Bills. Those teams’ combined record this season after Week 4? Yup, you guessed it – really good, 10-2 straight up (8-2-2 ATS) to be exact.

And what about the perceived powers coming into this campaign? The Falcons, Eagles and Steelers all look bad. Not unlucky… just bad.

What you think you know about the NFL can change as quickly as Clark Kent in a phone booth.

I know what you’re thinking. This just sounds like a bullshit excuse coming from an NFL writer who can’t pick winners to save his life. Well, after a 2-2 week I’m still a game above .500 on the season, so don’t jump ship on me yet.

Still, there are a few things I feel pretty confident about in pro football. Like how Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre are never going to be bosom buddies.

OK, enough with this sad excuse for a lead. Let’s pick out some puppies.

Oakland Raiders (+5.5) at Houston Texans

I don’t know how the Raiders players felt about their former owner. Al Davis was a volatile guy and not everyone loved him. But he took a chance on a lot of the players starring on the club this season.

Andre Johnson, the world’s best wideout, isn’t suiting up for Houston which is a huge loss for Matt Schaub and the Texans offense.

Look for Oakland to pay tribute to its recently deceased owner by picking up a big road win.

Pick: Raiders +5.5

New York Jets (+7.5) at New England Patriots

Oh boy. It would have been great to nab this line when Gang Green was getting 9.5 points early in the week, but there’s not much we can do about that now.

The Jets have their flaws and they’ve been on display for all of us to pick at, but that doesn’t mean Rex Ryan’s troops are going to get blown out at Foxboro.

New York gets All-Pro center Nick Mangold back and Darrelle Revis will slow down Wes Welker.

Pick: Jets +7.5

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5)

Loved this quote from our CoversSports twitter feed last Sunday after the Panthers pulled off another miracle back-door cover:

“Cam Newton is playing like he’s got money on these games.”

Yes, Carolina’s defense is a step below atrocious, but if Cam can’t cover, nobody can.

Pick: Panthers +6.5

Last week: 2-2
Season record: 7-6

**Udog** · 10-09-2011, 09:41 PM

NFL

Monday, October 10

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Bears at Lions: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5, 47.5)

THE STORY: Even though Hank Williams Jr. is no longer asking, the Detroit Lions have answered the question: Yes, they are ready for some football. Detroit gets its chance to convince a national television audience that it is worthy of playing under the bright lights when it hosts the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. One of two unbeaten teams left in the NFL – along with division rival Green Bay – the Lions will have to conquer a major nemesis to keep their perfect run going, having dropping six consecutive games to the Bears. Chicago already trails Detroit and Green Bay by two games as it attempts to defend its NFC North title.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE BEARS (2-2): After facing three straight playoff teams from 2010 to open the season, Chicago got back to .500 by outscoring the Carolina Panthers 34-29 a week ago. It wasn’t an aesthetically pleasing performance by the Bears, who needed an interception return (D.J. Moore) and punt return (Devin Hester) for TDs and were gashed for 543 total yards by No. 1 pick Cam Newton and Co. On the plus side, QB Jay Cutler (4-0 vs. Detroit) only attempted 17 passes as the Bears force-fed the ball to RB Matt Forte, who responded with a career-high 205 yards rushing one week after he was held to a career-low two.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-0): Detroit stormed back from a 27-3 third-quarter deficit on the road to stun Dallas 34-30 last week and improve to 4-0 for the first time since 1980. Matt Stafford threw two fourth-quarter TD passes to Calvin Johnson as the Lions became the first team in league history to win back-to-back games after rallying from deficits of at least 20 points. Detroit has won eight straight games – the longest active streak in the league – and a franchise-record five straight on the road. Bobby Carpenter and Chris Houston each had interception returns for TDs. DT Nick Fairley, Detroit’s first-round pick, could make his season debut Monday.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Detroit’s Johnson leads the league with eight TDs and is the first player to catch two scoring passes in each of his first four games.

2. Hester’s 69-yard punt return was the 11th of his career, moving him past Eric Metcalf for first place on the all-time list.

3. It seems appropriate that Detroit’s first appearance since 2001 on Monday Night Football comes against Chicago, which was the last team to beat the Lions and owns 93 victories against them – the most the Bears have against any opponent.

TRENDS:

The Bears are 4-10-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 15 games as road underdogs and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

The ATS trends are all good for the Lions. Detroit is 4-0 in its last four home games, 4-0-1 in its last five games as a favorite and 16-5-2 in its last 23 games overall, all against the spread.

The under is 44-18-2 in the Bears' last 64 games as underdogs, while the over is 9-2 in the Lions' last 11 home games.

LINE MOVEMENT

There's been a slight adjustment to the spread. Some offshore shops opened with the Lions favored by as much as 6 but the majority of sportsbooks list the Lions as 5-point chalk.

Not much movement on the total either. The over/under line was as high as 48 but sits between 47.5 and 47 as of Sunday afternoon.

PREDICTION: Lions 24, Bears 13. Detroit, fueled by a raucous home crowd in prime time, rides the Stafford-to-Johnson connection to stay perfect on the season.

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**Udog** · 10-09-2011, 09:44 PM

NFL

Monday, October 10

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Tale of the tape: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5, 47)

The Lions on Monday Night Football is no laughing matter. Detroit is undefeated and looking to down its division rival on national TV.

Here’s a peek at what numbers say about the NFC North showdown.

OFFENSE

You might think that this category would be a win for the Lions in a landslide, but that isn’t really the case. The reason Detroit is putting up some many points this season is because of its efficiency in the red zone. Detroit is finding paydirt 60 percent of the time it gets inside the red zone.

Yeah, Calvin Johnson will do that for an offense. The Lions Pro Bowl receiver is Matt Stafford’s favorite target inside the 20 as his eight touchdown catches indicate.

The Lions and Bears both don’t run the ball much but the Bears are much more effective on the ground than their opponents. Chicago averages 4.7 yards per carry compared to Detroit’s 3.0 ypc.

Kind of makes you wonder why Mike Martz doesn’t call Matt Forte’s number more often.

We’ll give a slight advantage to the Lions because of their effectiveness inside the red zone.

Edge: Detroit

DEFENSE

Chicago’s backbone under coach Lovie Smith has always been its defense but the stopper unit isn’t getting a lot of stops these days. Da Bears have allowed 86 points to opponents in their last three games and the Panthers racked up 543 offensive yards at Soldier Field last week.

It’s been a tale of two halves for Detroit’s D the past two weeks. The Lions let the Vikings and Cowboys run wild on them only to turn the table in the second both times. The one thing you can count on with Detroit is its defensive line making a mess of things for the offense on the other side of the ball.

Rookie defensive lineman Nick Fairley is expected to make his pro debut which will only bolster a line that includes Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Chicago’s defense is giving up 6.2 yards per play while Detroit is surrendering 5.2. Of course, as the defending NFC North champs, the Bears’ schedule has been much tougher so far.

We’ll give a small edge to Detroit because of its ability to generate takeaways (2.8 per game compared to Chicago’s 1.8).

Edge: Detroit

SPECIAL TEAMS

Do we really need to break down this category? The Bears’ best scoring play is the punt return because of super speedster Devin Hester. He returned one to the house last week against the Panthers.

And it’s not just Hester who’s doing the damage for Chicago’s special teams. Kicker Robbie Gould is a perfect 8 for 8 on field goal attempts this season.

Edge: Chicago

WORD ON THE STREET

“He's a guy we've got to get touches to. He's a guy we've got to get involved. He can do everything.” – Bears quarterback Jay Cutler talking about teammate and Matt Forte. The running back is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and 11.9 yards per reception.

PREDICTION: Lions 23, Bears 20

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