Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/4 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

[Udog]

NHL preview: Eastern conference forecast and picks

The post-Stanley Cup honeymoon didn't last long for the Boston Bruins, who learned over the offseason that they might have to do without forward Marc Savard for good. While the Bruins (+450 to win the East this season) prevailed in dramatic fashion without him, they could be hard-pressed to repeat the feat after getting career-best contributions from a number of players.

There will be no shortage of challengers to the Bruins' Eastern Conference crown, either.

The Washington Capitals (+366) are confident they will be able to put their previous playoff struggles behind them. The Pittsburgh Penguins (+600) will eventually get Sidney Crosby back in the lineup, a development that is sure to make them one of the conference's most dangerous units. And challenges from a handful of up-and-coming clubs can't be discounted, either.

Here's what the Bruins will be up against as they seek defense of their first Stanley Cup championship in nearly 50 years:

BEST OVER BET: The New York Islanders (33.5 season O/U win total) are a criminally bad team on the defensive end, having allowed the most goals of any team in the East over a three-year span. Even if goaltender Evgeni Nabokov bounces back from a year away from the NHL, he should expect to see plenty of rubber rocketed his way. On the plus side, the Isles are showing marked improvement on the offensive end. John Tavares looks ready to break through the 80-point barrier this season, while rookie sniper Michael Grabner should approach 40 goals. The over went 42-35-5 in the Islanders' games last season.

BEST UNDER BET: The Philadelphia Flyers (+585) gained as much on the back end as they lost up front during an eventful offseason. Gone are lynchpin forwards Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, who combined for 59 goals and 132 points last season. Veteran Jaromir Jagr leads a parade of new faces, but he's almost certainly a step back. Fortunately, the Flyers believe they have the answer in goal in Ilya Bryzgalov, who has posted 15 shutouts the past two seasons and should cut Philly's goals against by a sizeable margin.

MOST IMPROVED: It has become fashionable to write off the Toronto Maple Leafs (40.5 season win total) before the first overpriced beer is guzzled in the Air Canada Centre platinum seats. Yet it bears pointing out that Toronto was a sizzling 18-9-6 from Feb. 1 onward - a development no doubt precipitated by the emergence of goaltender James Reimer as a star in the making. With key additions up front (Tim Connolly) and on the blue line (John-Michael Liles), only another season of good luck in the health department can keep the Leafs from threatening to end a six-year playoff drought.

TEAM TRENDING DOWN: The Flyers surprised just about everyone with the trades that sent Carter to Columbus and Richards to Los Angeles. Developing chemistry will be critical to this team's success - and with the enigmatic Jagr leading the way, Philly fans shouldn't hold their breath. After all, they aren't exactly getting the 1990s incarnation of Jagr. Bryzgalov excelled in Phoenix, but he didn't face much scrutiny in the desert. If he struggles at any point in the City of Brotherly Love, he's going to find himself facing tough questions - and tougher critics.

SLEEPER TEAM: Aided by new owner Terry Pegula shelling out bushels of cash over the offseason, the Buffalo Sabres (+935) appear to be on the path to long-term success in the East. Armed with a roster that features legitimate firepower on the forward units, a sensational defense led by behemoth Tyler Myers and new arrival Christian Ehrhoff and goaltending anchored by perennial All-Star Ryan Miller, the Sabres' time might as well be now. With health on its side, Buffalo could very well top the Eastern Conference standings.

PICK TO WIN EAST: Washington. The selection is a little boring because the Caps are the favorites to win the East, but there's no way Alex Ovechkin struggles again like he did last season, and with a stronger commitment to defense than in seasons past, the Capitals are on the fast track to finally ending their recent playoff struggles.

[Udog]

NHL betting: Six teams that will defy your expectations

It seems just about every sports fan gets a kick out of predicting breakout teams before they breakout.

Of course, by the end of a long season, no one remembers who you picked as you anyway. Nevertheless, you can take some self-satisfaction from the exercise and maybe even a few dollars by making a futures wager on your sleeper.

With the NHL season starting Thursday, let’s use a little math involving goal differential in the form of the Pythagorean Theorem to find three teams that are good bets to move up the standings in 2011-12 and three teams that are ready to, shall we say, slip on the ice.

The margin between a team's goals for and goals against is often a good statistic to determine what a team's true record should have been in that season. If a team outperforms its expected record, it usually will win fewer games the following season and vice versa.

PRIMED FOR IMPROVEMENT

New York Islanders (30-39-7-6, 56-26 ATS)

The Islanders were biggest winners in the NHL against the puckline last season and they have the look of a team ready to win more games straight up this season after they underperformed their Pythagorean record by five victories in 2010-11.

Center John Tavares, left winger Matt Moulson and right winter Michael Graber give the Islanders plenty of offensive firepower and all are young enough to improve.

The Islanders also welcome back Mark Streit, a fine two-way defenseman, who was named captain at the start of training camp after missing last season while recovering from shoulder surgery.

Boston Bruins (46-25-5-6, 39-43 ATS)

Can you improve on winning the franchise's first Stanley Cup in 39 years? Perhaps by playing up to your full potential as the Bruins finished four wins short of their Pythagorean mark during the regular season in 2010-11 before turning it on in the postseason.

The skeptics believe the Bruins have no chance of repeating as champions because they lack a top point producer due to the retirement of concussion-plagued Marc Savard and only won last year because 36-year-old goaltender Tim Thomas stole the Cup with a brilliant playoff performance.

But the Baby Bears believe they can make up for Savard's scoring with a balanced attack, and they have Tuukka Rask waiting to take over in the nets should Thomas fail.

New York Rangers (44-33-2-3, 43-39 ATS)

Coach John Tortorella has longed for a true No. 1 center since taking over the Rangers and the need became more apparent than ever last season when his team underperformed its goal differential by four wins then lost in five games to the Washington Capitals in the first round of the playoffs. The Rangers got Torts his man by signing Brad Richards to a nine-year, $60 million contract as a free agent.

Tortorella and Richards teamed to win a Stanley Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning, though that was eight years ago. The Blueshirts hope the magic can happen again, particularly if Richards can boost an anemic power play and bring out the best in enigmatic right winger Marian Gaborik.


PRIMED FOR A FALL

Anaheim Ducks (47-30-3-2, 43-39 ATS)

The Ducks overachieved by five games last season as the statistics showed they should have been were a 42-win team. Of course, it helped to have the Hart Trophy winner in Ryan Perry.

However, there are reasons to believe the Ducks are set up for a fall, chief among that 41-year-old Teemu Selanne will have a hard time duplicating his 31-goal season of a year ago and 36-year-old Soku Koviu will be fortunate to score 15 goals again.
Goaltender Jonas Hillier is healthy after missing the latter part of last season with vertigo but it is a condition that often reoccurs.

Tampa Bay Lightning (46-25-5-6, 41-41 ATS)

Steven Stamkos lit the lamp 45 times last season, which is one of the reasons why the Lighting won 46 games in a year that the numbers said they should have had 42 victories. It is also helped that the Lightning converted 20.54 percent of their power plays.

While the Lightning should be a high-scoring team again after re-signing Stamkos, the defense is slow, making it vulnerable against good offensive teams. Goaltender Dwayne Roloson turns 74 next week. OK, it will actually be his 42nd birthday but the Lightning prepared by signing Mathieu Garon to be the backup and hold Rolo's walker.

New Jersey Devils (38-39-3-2, 29-53 ATS)

The Devils would seemingly figure to fall into the other category after finishing last season with 28 wins in their last 41 games and nearly sneaking into the playoffs after winning just 10 of their first 41. Don't let the fast finish fool you because the Devils won four more games than they should.

Pete DeBoer takes over as the coach in GM Lou Lamoriello's never-ending cycle of bench bosses following without a playoff berth while guiding Florida Panthers. Devil backers have to wonder will Ilya Kovalchuk tank it again this season and will 39-year-old goalie Martin Brodeur finally reach the end of the line?