Announcement

**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 10:35 PM

Tuesday’s betting tips: D-Backs rookie SP owns Brewers

Who’s hot

MLB: Milwaukee has won eight of its last 10 games in Arizona.

MLB: Detroit is 19-7 in Rick Porcello’s last 26 starts.

Who’s not

MLB: The over is 0-7 in Tampa Bay’s last seven home playoff games.

MLB: The over is 6-16-1 in Philadelphia’s last 23 contests.

Key stat

0 – Arizona Diamondbacks rookie starting pitcher Josh Collmenter heads into his first MLB postseason start Tuesday against Milwaukee, a club he has dominated in his short career. The 25-year-old kept the Brewers off the scoreboard in two starts against them back in July. He threw 14 scoreless innings, allowing six hits while striking out 10 with one walk. The Diamondbacks are set as +105 home underdogs.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers - San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates was scheduled to run Tuesday to test his injured foot. Gates has sat out the past two games with a plantar fascia injury that caused him to miss the final six games last season. Chargers coach Norv Turner on Monday said his Pro Bowl tight end is making progress but his status for this weekend’s game at Denver. The Chargers are early 4-point favorites.

Game of the day

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 8.5)

Notable quotable

"It's over already. (Tigers starter Justin) Verlander has it (Monday). Next day, have the celebration in Detroit ... 100 per cent. The Yankees have a good team, but I think that's it for them." – Detroit Tigers closer Jose Valverde following Sunday’s win over the Yankees. Valvarde later told reporters he was joking.

Notes and tips

Ohio State running back Dan Herron, wide receiver DeVier Posey and offensive lineman Marcus Hall have been suspended for Saturday's game against No. 14 Nebraska for accepting extra money while working summer jobs near Cleveland. Herron and Posey, along with left tackle Mike Adams and defensive end Solomon Thomas, were suspended for the first five games of the Buckeyes' season for various infractions, including accepting cash and tattoos in exchange for game memorabilia and autographs. The Sooners moved from 9.5-point underdogs against Nebraska to 11-point pups Monday evening.

If the Philadelphia Phillies want to re-sign shortstop Jimmy Rollins, they'll have to pay market value. Rollins says he won't give the Phillies a hometown discount when he becomes a free agent at season's end. Rollins made the comments following Sunday's loss to St. Louis in Game 2 of the National League Divisional Series. The 33-year-old infielder said he will seek a five-year deal when he hits the open market. Rollins remains one of the top shortstops in the NL. He batted .268 with 16 homers, 63 RBIs and 30 stolen bases in 567 at-bats in the regular season.

Washington Capitals superstar Alex Ovechkin left the team Monday to fly to Moscow following the death of his uncle. A team spokesman told the Washington Post that the Capitals are hopeful Ovechkin will be back in time for Saturday's regular-season opener against the Carolina Hurricanes. The two-time league MVP had 32 goals and 53 assists last season for a career-low 85 points. Ovechkin had reeled off three consecutive seasons of at least 50 goals, including a career-high 65 in 2007-08, and last season marked the first time he scored fewer than 46 in six seasons with the Capitals.

New York Jets coach Rex Ryan lashed out at his team following a humbling 34-17 loss at Baltimore on Sunday night, telling the team it is going back to a grind-it-out offense. The Jets have lost two straight games and failed to score an offensive touchdown in the loss to the Ravens. Quarterback Mark Sanchez was 11 of 35 for 119 yards and committed four turnovers - three of which were returned for touchdowns by the Ravens. Sanchez had thrown for a career-high 369 yards in a loss to Oakland the previous week. The Jets opened as 9.5-point underdogs at New England.

**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 10:38 PM

MLB

Tuesday, October 4

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Payoff pitch: Tuesday’s best mound matchup
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Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals.

Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79 ERA)

Philadelphia rolls out another dominant starting pitcher for Game 3 in Cole Hamels, who is 6-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 12 career postseason starts since 2007.

The 27-year-old is coming off another solid regular season campaign that saw him allow just 169 hits while striking out 164 batters in 216 innings of work. He hasn’t climbed the mound since throwing a three-inning relief stint against Atlanta on Sept. 28. Hamels gave up four hits and two earned runs and hasn’t recorded a win since he went the distance in a win over Milwaukee back on Sept. 9.

The good news is he has been pretty tough on Albert Pujols, who is 4-for-23 against him lifetime with two homers. However, Lance Berkman has seven hits in 21 at bats against Hamels over his career.

Hamels has had some problems with the longball lately, allowing nine homers over his last six trips to the mound.

Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA)

The Cardinals feel pretty good about giving the ball to Jaime Garcia for Game 3 even though this will be his first postseason start.

Garcia is dominant at Busch Stadium, going 16-9 in 35 career appearances while boasting a 2.31 ERA. He has held batters to just a .231 batting average in St. Louis and has two complete games under his belt this season.

"He's a guy that likes to get ahead in the count, and his command definitely plays big in order for us to be successful on him," Phils manager Charlie Manuel said.

"We've got to make him bring the ball up and be patient with him, and our right-handed hitters have to definitely have some success against him."

Garcia gave up four runs over four innings in a 5-4 loss at Houston when he last took the ball on Sept. 26.

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**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 10:40 PM

MLB

Tuesday, October 4

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Hot lines: Tuesday's best MLB bets
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Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks (+105, 9)

Unless you contain Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, you’re going to have a pretty tough time against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Arizona Diamondbacks are finding that out the hard way.

Braun continued his hot streak with a home run and three hits in Sunday’s 9-4 win in Game 2, pushing his batting average in the series to .750 (6 for 8). Meanwhile, Fielder has three hits and three RBIs in the series heading into Tuesday’s game at Arizona.

"We try to keep perspective," Braun told reporters. "We're excited that we won the first two games, but we could just as easily come home tied, 2-2.

"The goal is not just to get to the postseason. The goal is to advance through the postseason. We haven't accomplished that yet, so we're not overly excited but we feel good about the way we played in these two games.”

Diamondbacks rookie starter Josh Collmenter has his work cut out for him, but the 25-year-old’s quirky over-the-top delivery has puzzled a lot of batters, including the Brewers’ lineup in the regular season.

In two starts against Milwaukee back in July, Collmenter held the Brewers to three hits over six innings and then shut them out over eight innings in his next outing.

"I'm excited," Collmenter told reporters after Game 2. "That's what you pitch all the games during the regular season for, to get to these games that matter, that count. I'm looking forward to the opportunity. We'll be back at home and the game time is close to a normal game, so it's as close as it could be to a normal start."

This time around could be different. With Milwaukee smelling blood in the water and having seen Collmenter twice already we’re jumping on the Brew Crew as short road favorites.

Pick: Brewers

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**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 10:43 PM

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 4

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TEXAS (97 - 67) at TAMPA BAY (92 - 72) - 2:05 PM
MATT HARRISON (L) vs. JEREMY HELLICKSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 92-72 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 48-31 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 32-20 (+13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 279-294 (+23.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 167-169 (+25.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
TEXAS is 98-66 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 34-18 (+12.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TEXAS is 30-22 (+11.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 72-43 (+16.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 6-5 (+0.1 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

MATT HARRISON vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
HARRISON is 1-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.375.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

JEREMY HELLICKSON vs. TEXAS since 1997
HELLICKSON is 0-1 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.667.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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NY YANKEES (98 - 66) at DETROIT (96 - 68) - 8:35 PM
A.J. BURNETT (R) vs. RICK PORCELLO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 30-34 (-17.0 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 54-53 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BURNETT is 27-33 (-21.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 8-13 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 9-19 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 29-37 (-24.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 67-96 (-36.6 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 97-69 (+18.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 102-62 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 91-67 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 66-47 (+13.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 43-30 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 21-10 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PORCELLO is 21-10 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
PORCELLO is 21-10 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 98-66 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 91-55 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-4 (+2.0 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)

A.J. BURNETT vs. DETROIT since 1997
BURNETT is 4-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 6.33 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 5-3 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-2. (+2.8 units)

RICK PORCELLO vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
PORCELLO is 2-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.544.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

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PHILADELPHIA (103 - 61) at ST LOUIS (91 - 73) - 5:05 PM
COLE HAMELS (L) vs. JAIME GARCIA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 43-20 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 21-12 (+10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
GARCIA is 17-4 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARCIA is 11-1 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PHILADELPHIA is 103-61 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 44-20 (+16.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 50-31 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 101-60 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 46-25 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 44-25 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 25-10 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
ST LOUIS is 177-150 (-21.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 25-28 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ST LOUIS is 174-147 (-21.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 8-13 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 91-84 (-22.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 7-4 (+5.1 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.0 Units)

COLE HAMELS vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
HAMELS is 2-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 6-3 (+1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-6. (-3.5 units)

JAIME GARCIA vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
GARCIA is 2-0 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 0.96 and a WHIP of 0.929.
His team's record is 4-0 (+4.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-4. (-4.5 units)

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MILWAUKEE (98 - 66) at ARIZONA (94 - 70) - 9:35 PM
SHAUN MARCUM (R) vs. JOSH COLLMENTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 39-51 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 95-71 (+24.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 34-18 (+16.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
ARIZONA is 52-31 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ARIZONA is 26-12 (+12.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
ARIZONA is 17-9 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday this season.
ARIZONA is 95-71 (+24.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 72-50 (+22.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 71-47 (+27.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 36-32 (+7.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 99-66 (+23.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 99-66 (+23.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 66-45 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 81-48 (+26.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MILWAUKEE is 60-38 (+15.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
MARCUM is 35-24 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
MARCUM is 26-15 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 5-4 (+0.5 Units) against ARIZONA this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

SHAUN MARCUM vs. ARIZONA since 1997
MARCUM is 1-0 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 5.73 and a WHIP of 1.455.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

JOSH COLLMENTER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
COLLMENTER is 1-0 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.500.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

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**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 10:45 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, October 4

TEXAS at TAMPA BAY, 2:05 PM ET - ALDS - Best of 5 - Game 4 TBS
HARRISON: 13-2 TSR 2nd half of season
HELLICKSON: 11-3 Under in home games

NY YANKEES at DETROIT, 8:35 PM ET - ALDS - Best of 5 - Game 4 TBS
BURNETT: 8-13 TSR in night games
PORCELLO: 13-3 TSR 2nd half of season

PHILADELPHIA at ST. LOUIS, 5:05 PM ET - NLDS - Best of 5 - Game 3 - Tied 1-1 TBS
HAMELS: 18-7 Under off team loss
GARCIA: STL 8-13 at home vs. lefties

MILWAUKEE at ARIZONA, 9:35 PM ET - NLDS - Best of 5 - Game 3 - MIL leads 2-0 TNT
MARCUM: 8-0 Under as road favorite
COLLMENTER: ARI 2-8 at home vs. Milwaukee

**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 10:46 PM

NOTE:
For the initial posting of trends and indexes, we have provided information available up to the time of posting.
Additional updates for today’s games will be posted ASAP.

**Udog** · 10-04-2011, 09:24 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- Cleveland Browns' center Alex Mack played Sunday despite feeling sick; he had an emergency appendectomy Monday. Yikes.

-- They sell fried peanut butter/jelly/banana sandwiches at the Texas State Fair. Have to get there one of these years.

-- Curtis Painter's 87-yard TD pass Monday night is longer than any of Peyton Manning's TD passes in the regular season.

-- Over the last two weeks, 22 of 32 NFL games were decided by 7 or less points.

-- Los Angeles Angels fired three front office executives since regular season ended last week.

-- Today's lesson: If you're a public figure with a cushy job you'd like to keep, never, ever compare anyone to Adolf Hitler. Ever. Bad idea.

*********************

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Bottom 5 and top 8 in the NFL........

28) Jaguars—Coach who needs to win this year is playing rookie QB who isn’t ready. This usually leads to the coach being fired.

29) Seahawks—Coach who bolted USC before probation hit is playing a QB no one else thinks is any good. This generally leads to the coach being fired, but probably not until next year.

30) Dolphins—QB no one thinks is good hurt his shoulder Sunday; team is 0-4 and on a bye week. This often results in coach being fired.

31) Colts-- Star QB who basically was offensive coordinator isn’t going to play this year, creaky old veteran has a concussion, #3 QB played bit better than we expected Monday night, but he's still basically a rookie. This gives coach boatload of excuses, plus it puts team in line for good draft choice next spring.

32) Rams-- Team with good young QB can’t block for him, can’t catch his passes, hasn’t come close to winning yet. Hopefully that’ll lead to this coach being fired, since coach quit on a Week 2 game when he trailed 28-16 with 7:00 left. Three words for Mr Kroenke: HIRE JEFF FISHER

8) Giants—Go thru all 32 starting QB’s, and tell me where you rank Eli Manning. Not as easy as it sounds. Scroll way down on this page—I had him at #8 before season started.

7) Chargers—Norv is 3-1 against a weak schedule, but 3-1 ain’t 2-3 and that’s what Norv usually is this time of year.

6) Saints—Scored TDs on first two possessions Sunday, then didn’t get another one rest of game. They’re probably better than this ranking.

5) Texans—Andre Johnson better be healthy soon, or offense could be in trouble, since they already lost possession receiver Walter. Good win vs Steelers. Games with Tennessee are looking huge.

4) Ravens—Bully team; they deal in intimidation. Scoring three defensive TDs in one game doesn’t happen very much. Flacco looked lost Sunday night; not sure why, but his play was a red flag.

3) Lions—They believe; should be good scene in Motor City Monday night, first MNF home game in a decade, as long as they don’t punt to Devin Hester, and as long as they don't behind by three TDs again.

2) Patriots—They’ve got the best QB, but defense has allowed total of 1,910 yards in four games. That needs to improve.

1) Packers—Defending champs showing no signs of slowing down, but their last three opponents haven’t been good.

**Udog** · 10-04-2011, 09:26 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Philadelphia at St. Louis
The Phillies look to bounce back from their Game 2 loss and build on their 8-2 record in Cole Hamels last 10 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Philadelphia is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 4

Game 971-972: Texas at Tampa Bay (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 15.862; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.859
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Over

Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Detroit (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.793; Detroit (Porcello) 15.905
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-110); Under

Game 975-976: Philadelphia at St. Louis (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.754; St. Louis (Garcia) 15.213
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135); Under

Game 977-978: Milwaukee at Arizona (9:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Marcum) 15.081; Arizona (Collmenter) 15.684
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-105); Over

**Udog** · 10-04-2011, 09:28 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 4

Collmenter is 3-3, 2.88 in his last nine starts; he threw 14 consecutive scoreless innings vs Milwaukee in starts July 6-18 (back/back starts that were wrapped around All-Star break), winning 3-0 here (Arizona bullpen lost other game). Brewers much better at home (59-24) than on foreign soil (39-42), can they wrap up series on road? Marcum is 1-2, 7.03 in his last four starts; he allowed four runs in six IP vs Arizona July 4, in a game Diamondbacks later won 8-6. Milwaukee won six of Marcum's last seven road starts.

Garcia is 3-0, 4.11 in his last five starts; he was 0-0, 1.20 in two starts vs Philly this season (two runs/15 IP). Cardinals are 7-4 vs Philly this year, holding Phils to four or less runs in all seven wins, with five of those seven staying under total. Phillies scored 10-4-9-11 runs in their four wins. Hamels is 0-2, 4.74 in his last three starts; he allowed four runs in seven IP Sept 18, in meaningless game for the Phils.

Hellickson is 3-2, 2.38 in his last eight starts; he allowed two runs in 6.2 IP in 2-0 loss at Texas August 30. Rangers are 7-5 vs Tampa Bay this year, with three of seven wins via shutouts; Rays scored 5-4-5-5-9 runs in their five wins, 5-0-0-2-0-6-3 in the seven losses. Harrison is 4-0, 2.64 in his last five starts; he beat Rays 11-4 Sept 4, allowing two runs in seven IP. Under is 5-5-1 in eleven series games, 3-3-1 in this park.

Home team won seven of ten Detroit-Bronx games, as Tigers won four of five at home- Tigers are 6-4 in season series this year, as Detroit held them to three or less runs in four of six series wins. Bronx scored 6-10-5-9 runs in its four series wins. Burnett is 2-0, 4.08 in his last three starts; Bronx is 16-16 in his 32 starts this season. Burnett split pair of starts vs Detroit early in season, allowing eight runs in 12 IP. Porcello is 2-1, 3.55 in his last five starts; he beat Bronx here 6-3 back in May, allowing two runs in seven IP. Over is 6-4 in series games, 2-3 in Comerica Park, a more spacious ballpark.

**Udog** · 10-04-2011, 09:33 AM

MLB

Tuesday, October 4

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Trend Report
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2:07 PM
TEXAS vs. TAMPA BAY
Texas is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Texas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

5:07 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of St. Louis's last 13 games at home

8:37 PM
NY YANKEES vs. DETROIT
NY Yankees are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Detroit
NY Yankees are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home

9:37 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. ARIZONA
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Milwaukee is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Milwaukee

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**Udog** · 10-04-2011, 09:35 AM

NFL odds: Week 5 opening line report

Remember when it took an injury to a quarterback or star runner to move an NFL line? Those days are long gone.

In the National Fling-It League, wide receivers have usurped running backs in importance. One sportsbook manager told *********** a Calvin Johnson injury would downgrade the Lions by two points. All he does is score two touchdowns a game, like clockwork.

Fortunately for Lions backers and Megatron fantasy owners, that’s a hypothetical. But Andre Johnson proved the same point when he pulled a hamstring Sunday.

MGM Mirage withheld its Oakland-Houston line while awaiting results on Johnson’s MRI. The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opened the Texans as 8-point favorites but might have opened them at 9 if Johnson was healthy. (The line is currently 7).

“It’s a totally different game now,” MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told ***********. “It’s all about the quarterbacks and the wide receivers. Nobody establishes the running game. The Cowboys have a 24-point lead and they’re throwing the ball.”

Stoneback estimated Johnson’s line value at 1.5 points. In a little over three seasons, Johnson has caught 327 balls for 4,712 yards and 27 TDs.

Steelers workhorse RB Rashard Mendenhall also left Sunday with a hamstring injury, but his absence against Tennessee likely would not affect the line at all. It’s Big Ben’s foot sprain that’s keeping Titans-Steelers off the board.

The Hilton’s Jay Kornegay said a player’s line value always depends on his backup.

“If Andre Johnson is out, the best receiver probably ends up being the tight end [Owen] Daniels,” he said. “[WRs] Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter haven’t really proven themselves. Andre is a huge weapon to lose.”

In general, Kornegay said, receivers drafted in the first round or early second round of fantasy drafts can influence a line. The list includes Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks, Vincent Jackson and Mike Wallace, in addition to Andre and Calvin Johnson.

BIGGEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-10, 41.5)

The Seahawks don’t travel well. They’re 2-15 against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog since 2009, including 0-2 this year.

If the Giants get Justin Tuck back to join Osi Umenyiora and Jason Pierre-Paul on the defensive line, Tarvaris Jackson will need every ounce of his athletic ability to stay upright.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5, 35.5), Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 42), Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (3, 48.5)

The Bills still lead the AFC East by virtue of their win over New England. The Eagles are the NFL’s biggest disappointment.

But “Philadelphia is certainly a better team right now in a lot of eyes,” Kornegay said. “Buffalo is a great story and everything, but they did just lose to Cincinnati. And they’ve squeaked out some exciting wins. As far as power ratings, they still haven’t made their mark.”

Added Stoneback: “The public perception is that Philly is going to break out, and that’s what we put our numbers on.”

Cincy-Jacksonville is one of three unattractive matchups, along with K.C.-Indy and Arizona-Minnesota.

“Some bad games this week and a lot of byes,” Stoneback said. Six teams are off.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Green Bay at Atlanta (4, 53.5)

Both teams have posted 3-1 over/under marks so far. Going back to the Super Bowl, the Packers have played over the total in eight of their last nine games, including preseason. They whipped Atlanta 48-21 on this same turf in the NFC playoffs in January.

The most telling moment of Sunday’s massacre came when wideout Greg Jennings caught the Packers’ fourth TD and acted insulted no Bronco bothered to cover him. Truth is, this receiving corps is impossible to cover.

Green Bay is scoring a league-best 37 points per game. Look for a lot more championship-belt celebrations by Aaron Rodgers.

SMALLEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5, 36)

This is the lowest total of the season even after rising from 35.5. The second-lowest also involved the Bengals, when they visited Cleveland in Week 1.
Cincinnati’s 27-17 win easily cleared the 36.5 total.

In a league where scoring has erupted, the Jags are the only team yet to produce an over.

**Udog** · 10-04-2011, 11:00 AM

MLB

Tuesday, October 4

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What bettors need to know: Tuesday's MLB playoff action
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American League

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (-108)

Texas leads series 2-1

THE STORY: The Texas Rangers are one win away from reaching the American League Championship Series for the second consecutive season. They'll look to secure that victory Tuesday when they face the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 4 of the division series. Texas defeated Tampa Bay 4-3 on Monday to make it four straight road victories over the Rays in the past two postseasons. Mike Napoli hit the go-ahead, two-run homer and Colby Lewis allowed just one hit in six innings.

TV: 2:07 p.m. ET, TBS.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers LH Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.39 ERA) vs. Rays RH Jeremy Hellickson (13-10, 2.95 ERA)

Harrison pitched in relief in the opening game of the series and gave up a run in two-thirds of an inning. He went 4-0 with a 2.64 ERA in five September starts to beat out Alexi Ogando for a postseason starting spot. Harrison’s only career start against the Rays came in 2008 when he tossed eight innings of three-hit ball. Johnny Damon is 5-for-10 with three walks against Harrison.

Hellickson is one of the favorites for AL Rookie of the Year honors after finishing eighth in the league in ERA and ranking as the second-toughest pitcher to hit (.210) behind Detroit ace Justin Verlander. He had a 2.64 ERA after the All-Star break but one of his three second-half losses was to Texas when he gave up two runs and six hits in six innings on August 30.

ABOUT THE RAYS: Tampa Bay faces elimination despite outhomering the powerful Rangers 7-2 in the first three games. Desmond Jennings hit two homers in Monday’s loss to became the first leadoff hitter to go deep twice in a postseason game since Damon did so for the Boston Red Sox in 2004. Evan Longoria struck out three times but is 3-for-3 with a homer and double against Harrison.

ABOUT THE RANGERS: Napoli has four RBIs over the past two games as he follows up the best regular season of his career. Napoli also threw out B.J. Upton trying to steal in the eighth inning. Josh Hamilton had a two-run single for the other two Texas runs, his first RBIs of the series. Adrian Beltre is hitting just .091 in the series. Closer Neftali Feliz has saved two games and had a four-out save on Monday. Only once did Feliz record more than three outs in 32 regular-season saves.

TRENDS:

* Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Tampa Bay.
* Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
* Rangers are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Tampa Bay.
* Under is 41-13-6 in umpire Greg Gibsons last 60 games behind home plate.

FINAL PITCH: Monday’s Game 3 marked Tampa Bay’s first sellout at Tropicana Field since Opening Day.

New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers (-103)

Detroit leads series 2-1

THE STORY: Trying to stave off elimination, the New York Yankees will send enigmatic righthander A.J. Burnett to the mound in Tuesday’s Game 4 of the American League Division Series in Detroit. Burnett was not scheduled to get a start in the series, but Friday’s rain-forced suspension scrambled the pitching plans for both teams. The Tigers will counter with 22-year-old Rick Porcello. New York must win the next two against a team that hasn’t lost back-to-back games since Aug. 28-29.

TV: 8:37 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RH A.J. Burnett (2011: 11-11, 5.15 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Rick Porcello (0-0, 9.00 ERA).

Burnett hasn’t won consecutive starts since winning his first three outings of the season. He had only three wins in the last three months of the season and two of them came in a two-week span in September, including an 11-strikeout effort in Seattle. Burnett has not fared well at Comerica Park, going 2-2 with a 7.17 ERA in four starts. He is 1-1 vs. the Tigers this year.

Porcello allowed more than three runs only once in his last seven starts, but also was winless in his last three outings. Certainly not overpowering, he doesn’t give up a lot of walks and home runs, which will be crucial against the Yankees. He limited New York to two runs in seven innings earlier this season at Comerica. Robinson Cano is 5-for-11 against Porcello.

ABOUT THE YANKEES: New York needs to find some production from the middle of its lineup after the Nos. 3-6 hitters went 0-for-14 Monday. Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira are a combined 1-for-21 in the ALDS. No. 9 hitter Brett Gardner had a two-out, two-run double that tied Monday’s game and has four RBIs in the series. Closer Mariano Rivera has not pitched in two nights, so he’ll likely be available for two innings Tuesday.

ABOUT THE TIGERS: Detroit received unexpected offense from a couple of sources Monday. No. 9 hitter Brandon Inge led off a pair of innings with hits and scored both times on run-scoring hits by Ramon Santiago, who had 30 RBIs on the season. Delmon Young’s second homer of the series accounted for the winning run in Game 3. He clubbed eight homers in 40 games after he was acquired from Minnesota in mid-August.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-1-2 in the last nine meetings in Detroit.
* Over is 8-3-2 in the last 13 meetings.
* Yankees are 1-5 in the last six meetings.
* Yankees are 0-4 in the last four meetings in Detroit.

FINAL PITCH: Tigers closer Jose Valverde jokingly guaranteed the series wouldn’t return to New York after Game 2. He has turned in a pair of high-wire acts, throwing 34 and 19 pitches the past two nights to keep Detroit unbeaten (85-0) when leading entering the ninth inning.

National League

Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals (+125, 7)

Series tied 1-1

THE STORY: The St. Louis Cardinals didn't give up when they were 10 1/2 games out of a postseason berth in late August - so they certainly weren't going to wave the white towel after falling into a four-run deficit on Sunday. Tony La Russa's club came through with key hits and used a brilliant performance by its bullpen to gain a split of their National League Division Series with the Philadelphia Phillies. The series now shifts to the Gateway City with the wild-card Cardinals brimming with confidence and the NL East champion Phillies on their heels. St. Louis lefthander Jaime Garcia will take the mound against southpaw Cole Hamels in Game 3 on Tuesday.

TV: 5:07 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Phillies LH Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79 ERA) vs. Cardinals LH Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA)

Hamels will vie for his first win in nearly a month when he takes the mound on Tuesday. The 2008 World Series MVP has fared well on the road, posting a 7-3 mark away from Citizens Bank Park this season. Hamels is just 2-3 in his career versus the Cardinals, dropping his lone outing on Sept. 18. He permitted four runs on seven hits in seven innings in a 5-0 loss.

Garcia won three in a row to finish the season with a flourish. The 25-year-old Mexican has posted a 2-1 career mark against the Phillies, but settled for a pair of no-decisions this season. He yielded just one run in both respective outings on May 17 and Sept. 16 - with both contests eventually won by the Cardinals.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS: La Russa used an in-game television interview to fire up his club. With Philadelphia leading 4-0, the Cardinals skipper publicly complained about the strike zone - a move which will likely result in a slap on the wrist by the league but also slapped some sense into the Cardinals. Albert Pujols, who is nursing a sore right heel, delivered the final blow with a run-scoring single in the seventh to give his team a 5-4 victory. Pujols has struggled versus Hamels - going 4-for-23 in his career - but launched a mammoth first-inning homer in their last outing on Sept. 18. Ryan Theriot, who had two hits on Sunday, is 7-for-21 in his career versus Hamels.

ABOUT THE PHILLIES: Ryan Howard is having a significantly better postseason in 2011 than he had in 2010. The slugger ripped a two-run single in Game 2 to increase his total to six RBIs in the NLDS. Last year, Howard did not have an RBI in nine postseason games. Jimmy Rollins went 3-for-4 with a pair of doubles and two runs scored on Sunday. He is now 5-for-8 with five runs scored in the series. Both Howard and Rollins have struggled against Garcia, going 2-for-11 and 1-for-11, respectively.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 4-0 in Garcias last four starts vs. Phillies.
* Under is 4-0 in Garcias last four starts vs. Phillies.
* Phillies are 4-1 in Hamels' last five road starts vs. Cardinals.
* Under is 4-1 in Hamels' last five starts vs. Cardinals.
* Under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in St. Louis.
* Phillies are 2-5 in the last seven meetings.

FINAL PITCH: While stepping up defensively, Placido Polanco and Carlos Ruiz have stepped back at the plate. The pair is a combined 0-for-16 in the series with five strikeouts. Both players are 0-for-8, with Polanco fanning three times.

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks (+106, 9)

Milwaukee leads series 2-0

THE STORY: The Milwaukee Brewers are one win away from their first postseason series victory since 1982. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder each have a home run and have combined for nine hits and six RBIs through the first two games of the National League Division Series. The Arizona Diamondbacks are hoping a trip home will turn their fortunes. The Diamondbacks will send Josh Collmenter to the mound in Game 3 on Tuesday.

TV: 9:37 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Brewers RH Shaun Marcum (13-7, 3.54 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Josh Collmenter (10-10, 3.38 ERA).

Marcum had one of his worst starts closing out the season, getting torched for seven runs and 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings against light-hitting Pittsburgh. The righthander went 1-2 with a 6.66 ERA in his final four outings. Marcum went six innings against Arizona on July 4, yielding four runs on seven hits in a no decision.

Collmenter finished up the regular season with a win over San Francisco on Sept. 25 and recorded a quality start in seven of his last nine turns. The 25-year old did have some trouble keeping the ball in the yard toward the end, surrendering five homers in his last three games. Collmenter made two starts against Milwaukee, allowing a total of six hits in 14 scoreless innings.

ABOUT THE BREWERS: Fielder’s two-run blast provided the highlight of a 4-1 victory in Game 1 on Saturday and Braun went deep in the first inning of Game 2 to get Milwaukee started. The Brewers got some production from the rest of their lineup in Sunday’s 9-4 triumph, specifically during a five-run rally in the sixth that gave them the lead. Milwaukee was just 39-42 away from Miller Park during the regular season.

ABOUT THE DIAMONDBACKS: Arizona will be attempting to become the first NL team in the wild card era to come back from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-five series. It has happened four times in the American League, most recently when the Boston Red Sox overtook the Oakland Athletics in 2003. Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson could not get the job done in the first two games but the Diamondbacks went 51-30 at Chase Field this season. They scored 400 runs and hit .262 in the desert, up from 331 and .239 on the road.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Arizona.
* Brewers are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Arizona.
* Brewers are 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

FINAL PITCH: Milwaukee came back from 2-0 down in 1982 American League Championship Series, beating the California Angels in five games.

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**Udog** · 10-04-2011, 11:06 AM

WNBA Finals
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 5

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ATLANTA (24 - 16) at MINNESOTA (32 - 8) - 10/5/2011, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 5-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA Finals

Wednesday, October 5

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. MINNESOTA
Atlanta is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 10-04-2011, 12:18 PM

NHL preview: Western Conference forecast and picks

The Vancouver Canucks were the class of the Western Conference last season, but returning to that lofty perch will prove difficult in 2011-12.

The core of the club that reached the Stanley Cup final remains largely intact. But key losses on defense and an injury that will keep forward Ryan Kesler out to start the season have question marks surrounding the Canucks (+387 to win Western Conference), in what should be an incredibly competitive conference.

Challenges from the Detroit Red Wings (+588) and the San Jose Sharks (+502) are a yearly occurrence, while the Nashville Predators (+1,703) are riding high after reaching the second round of the postseason for the first time in franchise history. With the retooled Los Angeles Kings (+739) and staying-put Phoenix Coyotes (+1,875) also expected to make noise, picking a winner out West is no easy task.

Here's what the Canucks face as they aim for back-to-back Western Conference titles:

CONFERENCE FAVORITE: The Canucks can certainly be had, but by whom? Each of the top challengers have flaws that could prevent them from mounting a serious challenge and none of them have the kind of potent tandem Vancouver possesses in Henrik and Daniel Sedin. If Roberto Luongo continues his stellar play and the Sedins can cope with the absence of Kesler for the first few weeks of the season, Vancouver should be able to get off to a solid start and remain on top the rest of the way.

TAKE THE OVER: The Red Wings remained a formidable offensive unit last season, ranking second in the NHL in goals, but began to show cracks on the defensive end. Nicklas Lidstrom is entering his twilight and a shaky defense corps behind him is sure to make goaltender Jimmy Howard busy for the second year in a row. Expect plenty of high-scoring games when the Winged Wheel is in action.

TAKE THE UNDER: Things looked bleak for the Anaheim Ducks' (+1,189) defense in the early going last season. As the campaign wore on, the Ducks' beleaguered blueline improved dramatically, helping guide the club into the postseason. Expect fewer goals against, especially with a healthy Jonas Hiller in goal. Little has changed up front, but don't expect another 50-goal season from Corey Perry or an 80-point effort from 41-year-old Teemu Selanne.

MOST IMPROVED: The Kings believe it's their time and, with former Philadelphia Flyers star Mike Richards in the fold, they may finally be right. Following years of teasing fans with a talented but inconsistent lineup, Tinseltown has more depth in its forward lines than it has had in several years. The defense received a major boost with the signing of Drew Doughty to a long-term contract and Jonathan Quick proved he has the chops to be an elite NHL netminder. If the team can avoid the extended periods of lethargy that plagued it last season, it should find itself battling for a spot in the conference final.

TRENDING DOWN: The Calgary Flames (+1,703) used a sensational second-half run to nearly squeak into the postseason. It'll take a miracle for them to duplicate the feat. Following a failed bid to land prized free-agent center Brad Richards, the Flames have precious little down the middle. The first-line job will likely go to unproven Mikael Backlund, followed by a collection of rabble that includes Matt Stajan and Olli Jokinen. The defense lost a key piece in Robyn Regehr, and goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff will find himself pushed by young backup Henrik Karlsson from the get-go. It may be time to opt for a rebuild in Calgary.

SLEEPER TEAM: The only thing preventing the Minnesota Wild (+4,279) from joining the West elite last season was a startling lack of offense. The Wild recorded the second-fewest goals in the conference - a major reason why the team missed the playoffs for the third year in a row. Minnesota believes it has found a partial solution with the acquisition of Sharks forwards Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi. Heatley, as enigmatic a forward as you'll find, is reportedly motivated and in great shape. Playing alongside skilled veteran Mikko Koivu, the Wild now have a top line capable of leading them back to the postseason.

PICK TO WIN WEST: San Jose endured off-years from Heatley, Setoguchi and Joe Thornton in 2010-11 and still wound up with 108 points. If anyone can give Vancouver trouble, it'll be the Sharks.

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Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/4 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 10/4 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

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