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**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 09:46 AM

Monday’s betting tips: NFL playing under in prime time

Who’s hot

NFL: Indianapolis has covered in seven of its last eight Monday Night games.

MLB: Texas has won seven of its last eight road games.

MLB: The over is 5-1-1 in the New York Yankees’ last seven playoff games.

Who’s not

NFL: Tampa Bay is just 5-16 in its last 21 starts at home.

MLB: Detroit is 0-4 in Justin Verlander’s last four starts against the Yankees.

MLB: Tampa Bay has won just three of its last 10 playoff games.

Key stat

1 – Just one of the NFL’s eight prime time games have played under the total so far this season. Dallas’ 18-16 win over Washington played under the 45-point total.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis Colts - Freeney is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The defensive end was able to practice in full the last two days, although the 31-year-old is still nursing an ankle injury. Freeney has six tackles and three sacks this season for the winless Colts.

Game of the day

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 40.5)

Notable quotable

“You don't want to send a guy out there if he's not physically as good as he can be. I'm not saying that any starting pitcher is going to be 100 percent, but if you have a couple games that you can choose from and he can be 95 percent one day and 80 percent the other day, I'm going to take him at the 95 percent." – Yankees manager Joe Giradi about starting CC Sabathia Monday after the big lefty threw 27 pitches before Friday’s game was rained out. Sabathia lobbied to start Sunday’s game but Girardi refused.

Notes and tips

St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said slugger Matt Holliday felt more pain during a pinch-hit appearance in Saturday's loss to Philadelphia in Game 1 of the National League Division Series. Holliday had missed nine game last month with an inflamed tendon in his right hand and aggravated the injury earlier in the week. "Right now I'm more concerned than I was before yesterday's game," La Russa said Sunday of Holliday's status. Allen Craig started Sunday in place of Holliday, who batted .296 with 22 homers and 75 RBIs this season.

The Minnesota Lynx struck first blood in the WNBA finals on Sunday with an 88-74 victory over Atlanta. Rebekkah Brunson was a beast in Game 1, putting up 26 points and 11 rebounds. The Lynx have now covered in four straight games and in seven of their last nine. Game 2 goes Wednesday in Minnesota. Oddsmakers have yet to release a line.

New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez could serve as designated hitter at some point to rest his surgically repaired right knee. Rodriguez had knee surgery earlier this season that limited him to 99 games this season. He was held out of Wednesday's regular season finale at Tampa Bay because he felt some soreness in the joint. Yankees manager Joe Girardi indicated that the slugger could be moved to DH for one of the ensuing games in Detroit. Rodriguez was at third base for Friday's series opener and remained there when the game was resumed Saturday. If Rodriguez is moved to DH, Eric Chavez likely would play third base.

**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 09:48 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- OK, so who had the Brewers as the only team to lead a playoff series 2-0? They usually don't play as well on road; we'll see Tuesday.

-- Big day in Detroit Sunday, with Scherzer beating Bronx and Lions at 4-0 for the first time since I had a full head of hair (1980).

-- Tough day in Philly Sunday, with Eagles blowing 23-3 lead and then Cliff Lee coughing up a 4-0 lead, both at home.

-- Kevin Na won his first PGA Tour event out in Las Vegas, beating Nick Watney by two shots.

-- Eldrick Woods has dropped out of the World Golf Ranking's top 50 for the first time in fifteen years.

-- One thing that hits you over the head on Sunday afternoons; there are a tremendous amount of commercials in these NFL games-- there were a couple times Sunday when all nine early games were in commercial.

****************

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday........

13) Detroit Lions have now won eight regular season games in a row for first time since 1954, overcoming 20+-point deficits last couple weeks; they have their first Monday night home game in 10 years next week when the Bears visit, so exciting times in the Motor City these days.

12) After playing with supreme guts the last two weeks, Tony Romo had a day to forget Sunday, throwing consecutive pick-6's for Lion TDs after Dallas had built a 27-3 lead; then a horrendous INT at the Dallas 40 with 4:13 left set the Lions up for the winning TD. A very bizarre game, but the bottom line is that, for this week, the Lions are America's Team.

11) Big leads used to be safe in the NFL; not so much now. Eagles led the 49ers 23-3 with 9:30 left in third quarter; they got inside the Niners' red zone on six consecutive drives, but wound up 24-23 losers because of two missed FGs (38-yarder with 13:57 left, 32-yarder with 6:28 left), either of which would've given Philly a 9-point lead. 49ers put together three drives of 77+ yards to make the Iggles 1-3. Talk shows should be fun this week.

On seven red zone drives, Vick's offense had two TDs, three FGs and two fumbles, one of which was the dumbest play in the NFL since the Pisarcik fumble against the Eagles in 1978. Ronnie Brown tried to lateral to Vick from a pile on the 49er 2-yard line, but lost the ball, costing Philly another three points. Very few NFL teams win games if they're -2 in turnovers, especially if they're also terrible in the red zone.

10) Out in the Hilton Handicapping Contest in Vegas, 159 people picked the Vikings, 20 picked Kansas City, even though both teams were 0-3. It just seemed weird that an 0-3 road team would be so popular. Minnesota is now 0-4, even though Chiefs' QB Cassel had a sideline argument with his head coach Haley during the game. Don't see that much.

9) My only comment on the 0-4 Rams is this: Hire Jeff Fisher today and tell him to bring a new offensive line coach with him.

Well I have one other thing to point out, supporting why I want there to be a new offensive line coach: Rams started three drives in Washington territory-- they then ran a total of 17 plays for a total of minus-12 yards on those three drives. If they don't start blocking better, Sam Bradford is going to turn into this generation's David Carr, which would be a disaster.

8) Never in 100 years thought Jets-Ravens would be the game that went over the total in the first half. Somewhere Trent Dilfer had to feel for Joe Flacco, who was inept Sunday night, not throwing a completion in either the second or third quarters. His team won in spite of his play.

7) San Diego native Reggie Bush shelled out $7,000 for tickets for friends and family for the Dolphin-Charger game Sunday. You wonder why lot of these guys wind up broke? Everyone hits them up for everything.

6) Memo to the Arizona Cardinals and the Stanford Cardinal; if you have a color as a mascot, then wear that color jersey. Cardinals are red, how hard is it to wear a cardinal jersey? Black jerseys look stupid, unless black is one of your team's colors. Ravens are different; black is a team color.

5) Devin Hester is the greatest return man ever; he got his 15th return TD of his career against the Panthers, 11th via punt return.

4) Lions offensive lineman Jeff Backus played in his 164th consecutive game Sunday, which is more than 10 years without missing a game. When you think about it, thats a damn impressive feat for a lineman.

3) Houston took the opening kickoff and drove the ball 10:55 against the Steelers, longest TD drive in the NFL since a 10:59 Saints drive against Oakland in 2008. 3-1 Texans are looking an awful lot like a playoff team.

2) Officials hosed Arizona and gifted the Giants with a win when they ruled Victor Cruz "gave himself up" when he let the ball go without being touched late in the Giants' 31-27 win in the desert. What he did was just incredibly dumb; he stumbled and then stupidly laid the ball down when it was still live, and it should've been a fumble that cost the Giants a win. The officials said no, and plays like that can't be reviewed. OK then.

1) Home teams were 7-8 vs spread Sunday, over was 8-7, favorites were 8-7. There were 12 return TDs (five alone in the Jet-Raven game) and the NFC won two of three meetings with AFC teams.

Offensive TD tally: Week 1: 75, Week 2: 81, Week 3: 60, Week 4: 69, but with one game left, Colts at Bucs Monday night.

**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 09:51 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Texas at Tampa Bay
The Rays look to build on their 7-1 record on David Price's last 8 Monday starts. Tampa Bay is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 3

Game 967-968: Texas at Tampa Bay (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 15.613; Tampa Bay (Price) 16.109
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135); Under

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Detroit (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.955; Detroit (Verlander) 15.744
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+110); Over

**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 09:53 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 3

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TEXAS (97 - 67) at TAMPA BAY (92 - 72) - 5:05 PM
COLBY LEWIS (R) vs. DAVID PRICE (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 6-5 (+0.1 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

COLBY LEWIS vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
LEWIS is 2-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.364.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (+0.0 units)

DAVID PRICE vs. TEXAS since 1997
PRICE is 0-5 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 5.48 and a WHIP of 1.413.
His team's record is 3-5 (-3.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.5 units)

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NY YANKEES (98 - 65) at DETROIT (95 - 68) - 8:35 PM
C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-4 (+0.7 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. DETROIT since 1997
SABATHIA is 15-12 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.54 and a WHIP of 1.284.
His team's record is 19-14 (-1.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 15-18. (-5.0 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
VERLANDER is 4-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.14 and a WHIP of 1.556.
His team's record is 6-6 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-4. (+2.7 units)

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**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 09:55 AM

MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, October 3

TEXAS at TAMPA BAY, 5:05 PM ET AL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 3 - Tied 1-1
LEWIS: 10-3 UNDER in the division series
PRICE: 50-26 UNDER in games played in a dome

NY YANKEES at DETROIT, 8:35 PM ET AL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 3 SABATHIA: N/A
VERLANDER: N/A

**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 09:56 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 3

Price is 0-2, 5.35 in his last six starts; he is 0-1, 3.00 in two starts vs Texas this season. Rays lost six of his last eight home starts. Lewis has a 6.64 RA in his last seven starts, with Texas winning three of last four. Rangers are 6-5 vs Tampa Bay this year, with three of the six wins via shutouts; Rays scored 5-4-5-5-9 runs in their five wins, 5-0-0-2-0-6 in the six losses. Texas scored 7+ runs in three of its five wins. Under was 4-5-1 in the nine series games, 2-3-1 in this park.

Home team won six of nine Detroit-Bronx games, as Tigers won three of four at home- Tigers are 5-4 in season series this year. Detroit held them to 3 or less runs in four of five series wins. Verlander pitched Friday for one inning, Sabathia for two. Verlander is 12-0, 2.81 in his last fourteen starts- he is 0-0, 4.85 in three starts vs Bronx this year. Sabathia is 0-1, 3.41 in his last four starts, 0-1, 4.80 in three starts against Detroit. Bronx scored 6-10-5-9 runs in its four series wins. Over is 5-4 in series games, 1-3 in Comerica Park, a more spacious ballpark.

**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 10:00 AM

MLB

Monday, October 3

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Trend Report
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5:07 PM
TEXAS vs. TAMPA BAY
Texas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Texas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Texas
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

8:37 PM
NY YANKEES vs. DETROIT
NY Yankees are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Detroit
NY Yankees are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing at home against NY Yankees

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**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 10:01 AM

MLB

Monday, October 3

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Payoff pitch: Monday's best MLB mound matchup
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Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia go at it after both were scheduled to start Game 1, which was rained out in the top of the second inning Friday.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers vs. CC Sabathia New York Yankees

Justin Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA)

This is Verlander’s first postseason start since 2006 and the fifth of his career. Times have definitely changed since the last time he climbed the mound in the playoffs. Back then, Verlander was just a fireballing rookie and his numbers show it.

He is 1-2 with a fat 5.82 ERA over 21 2/3 innings in the playoffs with 23 strikeouts to go against 10 walks. Batters hit him at a .292 clip and have five home runs against this season’s Cy Young frontrunner.

This season, Verlander went 24-5 with a career-best 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts compared to only 57 walks while holding hitters to a .192 batting average. He basically led the American League in just about every significant stat.

"This year I feel like I've just found myself to be more mentally prepared and physically prepared," Verlander told reporters. "The combination of that has led to what's going on now."

Detroit’s ace was roughed up for five runs and two homers in a 6-5 no-decision loss to Baltimore in his start of the regular season, which was the first time Detroit lost one of his starts since July 15.

CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.00 ERA)

It’s no shock that Sabathia gets the nod to start Game 1; he has opened six series already in his career and has helped New York to a 7-1 record when he has climbed the hill for the Yanks.

He comes into this start well rested. The Yanks decided to make his Sept. 21 start against the Rays his last of the regular season to give him as much rest as possible. That decision denied him a shot at his 20th win, but should serve the Yanks well in the postseason, especially if Sabathia is needed on short rest. He threw 65 pitches in simulated start last Sunday just to keep him on his regular schedule.

“Just the normal way I would go about facing righties and lefties,” Sabathia told reporters. “Trying to pitch like I would pitch in a game.”

Last season the big lefty was 2-0 in three playoff starts, but his ERA ballooned to 5.63 and batters hit .333 against him with three homers over 16 innings of work. In his postseason career he is 7-4 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP.

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**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 10:03 AM

MLB

Monday, October 3

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Hot lines: Monday’s best MLB bets
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Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (-135, 7.5)

Tampa Bay starter David Price is looking to get a fat monkey off his back Monday against the Texas Rangers. In four season in the bigs, Price has never beaten the Rays, the only American League club that he hasn’t defeated.

"It is tough to forget about it," Price said. "It is two postseason losses but it is something that I think about and something that I want to get over with.

"I am not intimidated by this lineup by any means, or anything like that, but it is a very good offensive lineup and they make it tough to pitch. It's postseason baseball and you have to be able to step up and make some pitches for your team."

They need him now more than ever and it would be nice if he could return the favor after his bats bailed him out of the last start of the regular season. He gave up two homers and five earned runs in just four innings of work as the Yankees jumped out to a 7-0 lead. Of course, Evan Longoria eventually played hero, sending the Rays into the postseason with his second homer of the game in the 10th inning.

Prior to that outing, Price hadn’t allowed five runs in a start since the end of May and he should bounce back strong here. The line might be on the move so we’ll jump at the Rays at -135.

Pick: Rays

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**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 10:06 AM

NFL Week 4 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

Blackened crow was on the Sunday menu.

It didn’t taste good. Grinding bits of char like sand between my teeth.

I’ve been preparing to eat my words for three weeks now. I’ve finally stomached the fact that Cam Newton is going to be a good NFL quarterback.

He didn’t win this week but played well against a great defense. Newton looks like he’s been in this league for years.

When Warren Moon said this kid would be good, I told every ear that would listen he was full of shit. I thought Newton wasn’t a good enough passer, the next Vince Young, at best.

Now I’m a believer, my apologies Mr. Moonlight.

Newton probably can’t comprehend the three laws of motion, but he’s got an arm as big as Isaac’s brain. And he can beat pressure with mobility.

Carolina isn’t going to win every week, and the kid is going to have his share of rookie mistakes, but this team will compete.

Will oddsmakers continue to undervalue the Panthers? I’m aware that two of their three covers came from garbage touchdowns but that just shows they fight to the end. The kitties host the big bad Saints next Sunday. I’m praying that spread heads north.

THE GOOD…

I’ve always held Jeff Fisher in the highest tier of NFL coaches. When Bud Adams let him walk I thought the Titans were in for an era of futility. But the 88-year-old has been watching this game a lot longer than I have.

Tennessee isn’t going to miss Kenny Britt as much as I thought it would. “Bad Back” Hasselbeck has been one of the most efficient passers this season. Six different guys had catches Sunday.

The Titans defense is legit. This team will be in the division race with Houston until the end.

Calvin Johnson is already a better receiver than Cris Carter ever was. Perhaps jealousy is keeping Carter from admitting Johnson is one of the five best wideouts in the game.

He’s not just in the top five; he’s the king of the freakin’ mountain. Not even Optimus Ryan could find a way to slow Megatron this week.

Save for a few quarterbacks, Johnson is the best player in the NFL. It doesn’t matter how much the Lions get down, as long as No. 81 is on the field they’ll always have a chance.

THE BAD…

Justin Tuck is a liar. That stubby-fingered flake nearly cost me another win.

I like betting on quotes and Tuck said if he got on the team plane he was playing. When he boarded the sky bus destined for the Desert I assumed he would keep his word.

Flipped when I found out he wasn’t playing. Tuck is a game-changer and I’m convinced New York would’ve won by double digits if he’s on the field. Twice I’ve backed the G-Men and twice he hasn’t played.

And I’m happy we won’t be hearing about Tom Coughlin crucifying Victor Cruz. Sorry for the bad beat Cardinals backers but he did give himself up.

Can you believe Colt McCoy sent 61 balls through the air Sunday? The West Coast Offense is designed to chuck it around but Pat Shurmur didn’t draw it up like that.

The doo-doo Browns were a trendy preseason pick but we can’t forget this team has an unproven quarterback and is adjusting to new systems on both sides of the ball.

The WCO is all about short, horizontal passing but the Browns are taking it to a new level. They simply don’t have the quarterback or playmakers to take necessary occasional downfield shots, or comeback from big deficits.

THE UGLY…

Big Ben probably feels a lot like Mike Vick. And it looks like he’ll be on the weekly injury report, just like Vick.

As soon as Willie Colon-oscopy went down this team was in trouble. Rookie Marcus Gilbert is not a viable replacement. And when Doug Legursky and Jonathan Scott don’t play, you’re going to see Roethlisberger with a walking boot and crutches.

This offensive line is useless. It can’t protect or run block. Fourteen sacks surrendered and no back has even sniffed the century mark.

Warren Sapp has talked about how the Steel Curtain defense has fallen. Too old, too slow, too vulnerable, done. That fat flab may actually know what he’s talking about.

Pitt will have nine defensive starters over 30 by season’s end. Excluding the Seattle game, the Steelers have been gashed on the ground. Would you believe 150 yards per? Troy Polamalu and crew have certainly lost a step. They only have one takeaway all year.

After the nail-biter in Indy, Mike Tomlin said good teams don’t have that kind of performance. The writing’s on the wall coach.

THE LEANS…

Bills +3 vs. Eagles - Philly has no right to be a road fave against a 3-1 team. Odds still inflated.

Packers -4 at Falcons - Hotlanta is frozen over. I envision last year’s playoff game Part Deux.

NFL Record: 10-3-2, $700

**Udog** · 10-03-2011, 10:08 AM

NHL preview: Eastern conference forecast and picks

The post-Stanley Cup honeymoon didn't last long for the Boston Bruins, who learned over the offseason that they might have to do without forward Marc Savard for good. While the Bruins (+450 to win the East this season) prevailed in dramatic fashion without him, they could be hard-pressed to repeat the feat after getting career-best contributions from a number of players.

There will be no shortage of challengers to the Bruins' Eastern Conference crown, either.

The Washington Capitals (+366) are confident they will be able to put their previous playoff struggles behind them. The Pittsburgh Penguins (+600) will eventually get Sidney Crosby back in the lineup, a development that is sure to make them one of the conference's most dangerous units. And challenges from a handful of up-and-coming clubs can't be discounted, either.

Here's what the Bruins will be up against as they seek defense of their first Stanley Cup championship in nearly 50 years:

BEST OVER BET: The New York Islanders (33.5 season O/U win total) are a criminally bad team on the defensive end, having allowed the most goals of any team in the East over a three-year span. Even if goaltender Evgeni Nabokov bounces back from a year away from the NHL, he should expect to see plenty of rubber rocketed his way. On the plus side, the Isles are showing marked improvement on the offensive end. John Tavares looks ready to break through the 80-point barrier this season, while rookie sniper Michael Grabner should approach 40 goals. The over went 42-35-5 in the Islanders' games last season.

BEST UNDER BET: The Philadelphia Flyers (+585) gained as much on the back end as they lost up front during an eventful offseason. Gone are lynchpin forwards Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, who combined for 59 goals and 132 points last season. Veteran Jaromir Jagr leads a parade of new faces, but he's almost certainly a step back. Fortunately, the Flyers believe they have the answer in goal in Ilya Bryzgalov, who has posted 15 shutouts the past two seasons and should cut Philly's goals against by a sizeable margin.

MOST IMPROVED: It has become fashionable to write off the Toronto Maple Leafs (40.5 season win total) before the first overpriced beer is guzzled in the Air Canada Centre platinum seats. Yet it bears pointing out that Toronto was a sizzling 18-9-6 from Feb. 1 onward - a development no doubt precipitated by the emergence of goaltender James Reimer as a star in the making. With key additions up front (Tim Connolly) and on the blue line (John-Michael Liles), only another season of good luck in the health department can keep the Leafs from threatening to end a six-year playoff drought.

TEAM TRENDING DOWN: The Flyers surprised just about everyone with the trades that sent Carter to Columbus and Richards to Los Angeles. Developing chemistry will be critical to this team's success - and with the enigmatic Jagr leading the way, Philly fans shouldn't hold their breath. After all, they aren't exactly getting the 1990s incarnation of Jagr. Bryzgalov excelled in Phoenix, but he didn't face much scrutiny in the desert. If he struggles at any point in the City of Brotherly Love, he's going to find himself facing tough questions - and tougher critics.

SLEEPER TEAM: Aided by new owner Terry Pegula shelling out bushels of cash over the offseason, the Buffalo Sabres (+935) appear to be on the path to long-term success in the East. Armed with a roster that features legitimate firepower on the forward units, a sensational defense led by behemoth Tyler Myers and new arrival Christian Ehrhoff and goaltending anchored by perennial All-Star Ryan Miller, the Sabres' time might as well be now. With health on its side, Buffalo could very well top the Eastern Conference standings.

PICK TO WIN EAST: Washington. The selection is a little boring because the Caps are the favorites to win the East, but there's no way Alex Ovechkin struggles again like he did last season, and with a stronger commitment to defense than in seasons past, the Capitals are on the fast track to finally ending their recent playoff struggles.

Announcement

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 10/3 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 10/3 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

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