Announcement

**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 10:24 PM

Saturday's betting tips: Penn State on ATS freefall

Who’s hot

MLB: The Rangers are 7-1 in Derek Holland’s last eight home starts against winning teams.

NCAAF: The Under is 11-4 in Iowa State’s last 15 home games.

NCAAF: Wake Forest is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 points.

CFL: Calgary is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a SU loss.

Who’s not

MLB: The Over is 1-5 in Detroit pitcher Doug Fister’s last six starts.

NCAAF: Penn State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games.

NCAAF: Mississippi State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog.

CFL: Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a SU win.

Weather

- The forecast for Game 1 of the NLDS between St. Louis and Philadelphia is calling for rain. There's a 55 percent chance of showers for Citizens Bank Park along with winds blowing west at speed of up to 11 mph. Temperatures will dip into the mid 50s.

- More rain is expected in the Bronx for Game 2 of the ALDS between Detroit and New York. The forecast for Yankee Stadium is calling for a 65 percent chance of showers by the first pitch, however, the rain will let up later in the evening. Temperatures are expected to be in the high 50s.

- Winds will reach speeds in the mid teens at Miller Park for Game 1 of the NLDS between Arizona and Milwaukee Saturday. Those gust will be blowing north out to right field.

Key stat

3.02 -- The yards-per-carry average of Pittsburgh RB Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers, whose offensive line is an injury-riddled mess, are getting 3.5 points at Houston on Sunday. The Texans allow 4.8 yards per carry but it's highly questionable whether Pittsburgh can take advantage.

Injuries not to be overlooked

N.C. State, a 10-point home dog to No. 21 Georgia Tech, is decimated on the D-Line. The Wolfpack were already without DTs J.R. Sweezy and Thomas Teal when they lost to Cincinnati 44-14 last week, then they lost two more players at those positions. Brian Slay (ankle) and A.J. Ferguson (knee) went down in the first half and won’t play Saturday. But Sweezy, who’s missed the entire season with a broken bone in his foot, is listed as questionable.

Game of the day

No. 8 Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 7 Wisconsin Badgers (-10, 56.5)

Notable quotable

"Caldwell wanted to start me but it wasn’t up to him!” – CB Justin Tryon’s tweet about head coach Jim Caldwell after the Colts released Tryon. Players admitted they were shocked Tryon was waived. It’s just another sign of turmoil for 0-3 Indy, a 10-point dog at Tampa Bay on Monday night.

Notes and tips

The MLB regular-season was the lowest-scoring since 1992. Teams averaged 4.28 runs per game, compared to the Steroids Era peak of 5.14 in 2000. Teams averaged 4.12 in 1992. Home runs per game per team dropped to 0.94, also the lowest in 19 years. In 2000, teams averaged 1.17 homers per game. On the other hand, the 3.94 ERA was the best since pitchers posted the same ERA in 1992.

Cowboys QB Tony Romo might need another pain-killing injection before Sunday’s home game against the Lions. Romo, who received two pain injections for his fractured rib before Monday’s win over Washington, said he doesn’t know how severe the crack is. But, he added, “it's a fracture. It is what it is. It either feels better or it doesn't." Playing with a protective vest, Romo hit 22 of 36 throws for 255 yards and one INT against the ‘Skins. It was the seventh time since he became a fulltime starter in 2006 that Romo didn’t throw a TD pass. Dallas is favored by 1.5 points against the undefeated Lions.

Wisconsin will have its starting right tackle back for Saturday’s showdown against Nebraska. Senior Josh Oglesby, who hurt his left knee Sept. 17, practiced all week. Replacement Rob Havenstein got his first start against South Dakota last week and is expected to get some snaps, too. LB Kevin Claxton, who broke his left wrist in the season opener, also should start Saturday after coming off the bench last week and making six tackles. The host Badgers are favored by 10.

**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 10:27 PM

CFL
Dunkel

Week 14

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1

Game 295-296: Saskatchewan at Calgary (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 111.099; Calgary 115.423
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 4 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+5 1/2); Over

Game 297-298: Hamilton at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 111.917; Toronto 106.904
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 5; 52
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-3 1/2); Under

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

Saturday, October 1

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SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 8) at CALGARY (7 - 5) - 10/1/2011, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 102-64 ATS (+31.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 88-57 ATS (+25.3 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 9 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-4 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-4 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HAMILTON (6 - 6) at TORONTO (3 - 9) - 10/1/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 5-4 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 6-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Saskatchewan (4-8) @ Calgary (7-5)-- Stampeders already beat Riders in Regina twice this year, 22-18 (-2.5) in Week 5, 45-35 (-3.5) two weeks later. Calgary lost three of last four games after 6-2 start; they're 5-5 as favorites, 2-4 at home, as visitor won nine of their 12 games this season. Roughriders had three-game win streak snapped 42-5 at home last week; they're 3-6 as underdogs, 2-3 on road, losing road games by 30-13-6 pts. Under is 8-2 in last ten Rider games, 2-5 in last seven Calgary games.

Hamilton (8-4) @ Toronto (3-9)-- Argonauts (+7.5) lost 37-32 back in Week 7 in Hamilton; Argos snapped 3-game losing skid last week with 25-24 upset of Winnipeg. Toronto is 4-5 as an underdog this year, 1-1 at home- they're 2-3 SU at home, losing by 9-9-13 points. Hamilton lost its last three games on foreign soil, by 12-3-30 points- they're 1-2 as a fave, all at home. TiCats are 2-4 on road, winning 24-16 at Winnipeg, 39-31 at BC Place. Eight of last nine Calgary games went over the total.

CFL

Week 14

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Trend Report
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4:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games when playing Calgary
Calgary is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan

7:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Hamilton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games

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CFL

Week 14

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Canadian Bacon: CFL Week 14 odds and picks
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Saskatchewan Roughriders at Calgary Stampeders (-6, 55.5)

These teams need some major defensive help. The Roughriders gave up 42 points against the Lions last week while the Stamps were mauled for 55 points by the Tiger-Cats in the second Touchdown Atlantic Classic played in Moncton.

Saskatchewan’s lack of depth has been evident from the start of the 2011 season, but the collapse of the Stampeders over the last few weeks is stunning. Calgary gave up 142 points in its last four games, three of which turned out to be losses.

Coach John Hufnagel has announced that veteran running back Joffrey Reynolds will be a healthy scratch for the second straight game. Reynolds is having one of the worst seasons of his career with an average of only 4.8 yards per carry.

In front of their fans in Calgary, against a Riders team that can’t carry the “Miller effect” on forever, the Stampeders have a great opportunity to prove they can contend in the West.

But they must improve on their turnover ratio (minus-9) and penalties (1169 yards, the worst record in the CFL). The Riders will likely be without slotback Andy Fantuz (right ankle) and WR Dallas Baker (concussion).

Pick: Calgary

Hamilton Tiger Cats at Toronto Argonauts (+4, 54)

The Argos may have pitched an upset 25-24 win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers but they have lots of work to do.

Their front seven had its best game of the season against Winnipeg with four sacks and 13 tackles. Ricky Foley, who was chosen Canadian Player of the Week, had six of those tackles plus a pair of sacks. It will take another stellar performance on defense if Toronto has any hope against Hamilton.

Meanwhile, the Tiger-Cats are coming back from the Maritimes with renewed confidence after a huge win against the Stampeders. The bottom line is that Hamilton has a much better team with much more speed than the Argos.

The secondary remains suspect at best but the acquisition of DB Milt Collins from Calgary should fill a big hole. Collins will replace Ryan Hinds at safety against the Argos. The Tiger-Cats have only managed six interceptions in 12 games and are dead last in the league with four turnovers.

Pick: Hamilton

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**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 10:29 PM

MLB

ALDS

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American League Division Series previews and picks
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The American League playoffs begin Friday. Check out our breakdown of both AL Divisional Series and our predictions to advance to the ALCS.

Detroit Tigers (95-67) vs. New York Yankees (97-65)

Regular season: Tigers won 4-3
Series odds: Yankees -160, Tigers +120

PITCHING

New York relied heavily on ace C.C. Sabathia (19-8, 3.00 ERA) and a three-man rotation en route to its last World Series title in 2009. But Sabathia, despite his 19 wins, has labored down the stretch. There are questions marks galore behind him with rookie Ivan Nova (16-4, 3.70 ERA, unbeaten since June 3), soft-serving Freddy Garcia (12-8, 3.62 ERA) and enigmatic A.J. Burnett (11-11, 5.15 ERA). The one constant that covers up the blotches is Mariano Rivera at the back of the bullpen.

Detroit’s hopes rest on ace Justin Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA), who had won 12 straight starts before taking a no-decision in his final start. Midseason acquisition Doug Fister (11-13, 2.83 ERA) has actually outpitched Verlander down the stretch, allowing five runs in his last seven starts. Max Scherzer (15-9, 4.43 ERA) carries the same "great-stuff-but" tag as Burnett, while Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.75 ERA) is slotted for Game 4. Closer Jose Valverde has converted all 49 saves.

Edge: Tigers

HITTING

The Tigers have an awesome 1-2 punch in Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Cabrera (.344, 30 homers, 105 RBIs) closed the season with six straight multi-hit games to win the league batting title and Martinez (.330, 12, 103) had 26 RBIs in September. SS Jhonny Peralta (.299, 21, 86) and C Alex Avila (.295, 19 HRs, 82 RBIs) have had huge seasons and Magglio Ordonez (.255, 5 HRs, 32 RBIs) is riding an 18-game hitting streak.

New York led the majors with 222 homers. CF Curtis Granderson (.262, 41 HRs, 119 RBIs) had an MVP season but enters on a 1-for-20 slump. Mark Teixeira (.248, 39 HRs, 111 RBIs) and Robinson Cano (.302, 28 HRs, 118 RBIs) form a lethal middle of the lineup. Derek Jeter's late-season surge (.297, 6 HRs, 61 RBIs) bodes well for another big October, but the health of Alex Rodriguez (.276, 16 HRs, 62 RBIs) and his ailing knee is a question mark.

Edge: Yankees

INTANGIBLES

The teams haven’t played each other since May 5. Detroit finished 30-9 while the Yankees were on cruise control the last week. The Tigers beat New York in four games in 2006 ALDS. The Yankees are reliant on the long ball so they must play well at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. Verlander hasn’t beaten New York in two starts this season. Jim Leyland gives Tigers edge in managerial strategy over Joe Girardi, but Rivera is the great equalizer in a short series.

Edge: Even

PREDICTION: Yankees in five games

Tampa Bay Rays (91-71) vs. Texas Rangers (96-66)

Regular season: Texas won 5-4
Series odds: Rangers -160, Rays +120

PITCHING

Texas has a deep starting rotation and was the first AL team since 1977 to have five pitchers with 13 or more victories. Left-hander C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94) is the anchor and fellow lefty Derek Holland (16-5, 3.95) had a strong second half. Right-hander Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40) had some impressive performances in the 2010 postseason and left-hander Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.46) was a huge surprise. Alexi Ogando (13-8, 3.51) will work from the bullpen, which is strong with closer Neftali Feliz (32 saves) and Mike Adams leading the way.

Tampa Bay’s rotation is led by right-hander James Shields (16-12, 2.82) and his 11 complete games. Rookie right-hander Jeremy Hellickson (13-10, 2.95) is solid and Tampa Bay needs tough left-hander David Price (12-13, 3.35) to rebound after a winless September. Right-handers Jeff Niemann (11-7, 4.06) and Wade Davis (11-10, 4.45) are battling consistency issues. Kyle Farnsworth (25 saves) is the closer.

Edge: Rangers

HITTING

The Rangers were third in baseball with 855 runs scored and second with 210 home runs. Three players hit 30 homers and the trio didn’t include outfielders Nelson Cruz (29) or Josh Hamilton (25). Third baseman Adrian Beltre hit 12 of his 32 homers in September, second baseman Ian Kinsler (32 homers, 30 steals) had his second 30-30 season and first baseman/catcher Mike Napoli hit a career-best 30 homers. Versatile Michael Young batted .338 and drove in a career-best 106 runs.

Tampa Bay scored 148 fewer runs and was one of the weaker offensive squads in the American League until turning it on in September. Third baseman Evan Longoria had 31 homers and 99 RBIs while batting a career-worst .244. Outfielder B.J. Upton (23 homers, 35 steals) combines power and speed. Second baseman Ben Zobrist (20 homers, 91 RBIs) and outfielder Matt Joyce (19 homers) had good first halves and struggled after the break. Designated hitter Johnny Damon (16 homers) is an experienced postseason veteran.

Edge: Rangers

INTANGIBLES

Texas beat Tampa Bay in five games in last year’s ALDS and won 14 of its final 16 games while setting a franchise record for victories. But who can ignore the Rays rebounding from a nine-game deficit on Sept. 2 to snatch the Wildcard from the Boston Red Sox? Winning the final five games and rallying from seven runs down against the Yankees on the final night to claim the Wildcard on Longoria’s 12th-inning homer is the type of feat that prompts visions of being a team of destiny.

Edge: Rays

PREDICTION: Rangers in four games

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MLB

NLDS

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National League Division Series previews and picks
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The National League playoffs begin Saturday. Check out our breakdown of both NL Divisional Series and our predictions to advance to the NLCS.

St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (102-60)

Regular season: Cardinals won 6-3
Series odds: Phillies -340, Cardinals +220

PITCHING

The moment Cliff Lee returned to the City of Brotherly Love, the Phillies pretty much clinched this category. With reigning National League Cy Young winner Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA), Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA), 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79 ERA) and veteran Roy Oswalt (9-10, 3.69 ERA) in the mix, this starting rotation is as good as it gets. In addition, rookie Vance Worley (11-3, 3.03 ERA) won nine straight decisions and was unbeaten in three and a half months at one point this season - and he proved to be the odd man out.

As for St. Louis, ace Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA) was needed to pitch the regular season finale and will not be available until later in the series. Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA), Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA) and Jake Westbrook (12-9, 4.66 ERA) are capable of carrying the Cardinals.

Edge: Phillies

HITTING

Collectively, St. Louis leads the National League in several major categories: Batting average (.273), runs scored (754), hits (1,501), RBIs (718). Not surprisingly, Albert Pujols (.299, 37 homers, 99 RBIs) steers this ship with veteran Lance Berkman (.301, 31 homers, 94 RBIs) enjoying a bounce-back season. The health of Matt Holliday (hand) could play a role in this series.

For its part, Philadelphia's lineup isn't as potent as it was in years' past, but the addition of Hunter Pence (.314, 22 homers, 97 RBIs) has been an obvious boon to Ryan Howard (.253, 33 homers, 116 RBIs).

Edge: Cardinals

INTANGIBLES

St. Louis overcame a 10.5-game deficit on Aug. 25 by winning 23 of its last 31 games to secure the postseason berth. Ironically, the Cardinals were rooting for the Phillies Wednesday.

The NL East champions set a franchise record with their 102nd win of the season by defeating the Atlanta Braves in 13 innings, thereby allowing St. Louis to clinch NL Wildcard. The Phillies have won 101 games in 1976 and 1977, but lost in the NL Championship Series both times.

Edge: Phillies

PREDICTION: Phillies in four games

Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (96-66)

Regular season: Diamondbacks won 4-3
Series odds: Brewers -180, Diamondbacks +130

PITCHING

The Brewers will trot out a rotation of Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Zack Greinke and Randy Wolf while the Diamondbacks are expected to counter with Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson in the first two games and some combination of lefthander Joe Saunders and rookie Josh Collmenter thereafter.

Despite Kennedy’s 21 wins, Milwaukee’s quartet holds the clear edge in power with two (Gallardo and Greinke) of the seven pitchers in the NL to finish over 200 strikeouts. Arizona‘s group leads in ERA with a combined 3.32 to 3.63.

While the Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been a big reason for their worst-to-first jump, the Brewers look even more stable with Francisco Rodriguez setting up John Axford and power arms like LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito in reserve. Axford has posted a 0.86 ERA in 27 appearances since the All-Star break and did not allow a run in September.

Edge: Brewers

HITTING

Arizona has one MVP candidate in the middle of its lineup in Justin Upton but Milwaukee has two, with Prince Fielder hitting behind Ryan Braun. The Diamondbacks finished fourth in the NL in runs scored while the Brewers ranked sixth, but again Milwaukee takes the edge in power. Led by Braun, Fielder, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, the Brewers hit 182 home runs to Arizona’s 170 and leads in slugging and on-base percentage.

The Diamondbacks are right-handed heavy through the middle of their lineup with Aaron Hill, Upton, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Young and Ryan Roberts likely getting the bulk of the playing time. Milwaukee will counter that with the likes of Gallardo, Greinke, Rodriguez and Axford.

The Brewers’ lineup skews right as well but at least have Fielder in the middle to keep right-handed pitchers honest. Milwaukee also happens to be one of the more difficult teams to strike out, ranking 14th in the NL with 1,080 K’s while Arizona has been punched out 1,243 times - the fourth most in the NL.

Edge: Brewers

INTANGIBLES

Milwaukee getting home-field advantage in the final week could turn out to be the key to the series. The Brewers were a major league-best 57-24 at home during the regular season while struggling to a 39-42 mark on the road. Arizona plays better at Chase Field (51-30) but is still a winning team (43-38) away from the desert.

Kirk Gibson and Ron Roenicke figure to finish first and second in the NL Manager of the Year voting in their full-season debuts and each has a veteran stable of coaches behind him. While the Brewers are often content to sit and wait for the home run on offense, the Diamondbacks take more chances at manufacturing runs, ranking second in the NL in stolen bases.

Arizona is the far superior defensive team, leading the majors by a healthy margin in ultimate zone rating topping Milwaukee in defensive efficiency.

Edge: Diamondbacks

PREDICTION: Brewers in four games

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**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 10:31 PM

MLB

Saturday, October 1

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Payoff pitch: Saturday's best MLB mound matchup
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Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers

Ian Kennedy (21-4, 2.88 ERA)

Kennedy is 26 and just completing his second full season in the big leagues. This will be his first taste of playoff baseball.

“The playoffs are a totally different animal," Kennedy told MLB.com. "I've got to experience that and it's something that the regular season can't hold. When you go to the playoffs, it's totally different."

Kennedy, who is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts, said he’ll try to treat Saturday’s game just like any other.

"I know there's going to be a little more adrenaline when I'm out there, but normally there's not going to be much difference in preparation,” he said. “I feel like what I did in the regular season should be all right."

Kennedy has four good pitches – fastball, cutter, curve, changeup – that he can throw at any time. In his only start this season against Milwaukee, Kennedy tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing four hits and two walks while striking out five.

Kennedy went 10-2 with a 3.19 ERA on the road this year.

Yovani Gallardo (17-10, 3.52 ERA)

Gallardo was dominant in his final three regular-season starts, striking out 36 over 20 1/3 innings with a 1.77 ERA.

He has some playoff experience, having pitched seven innings in the 2008 NLDS against the Phillies. He did not allow an earned run.

This year Gallardo led Milwaukee in wins (17) and strikeouts (207). He went 10-2 with a 3.00 ERA at Miller Park.

The 25-year-old will be pitching on seven days’ rest. He threw a simulated game Tuesday and a bullpen session Thursday.

"He wants the ball, and he doesn't care who it's against or what the circumstances are," pitching coach Rick Kranitz told MLB.com. "He wants the ball in his hand."

Gallardo won both his starts against the D-backs this year, allowing four runs (two earned) and eight hits over 13 innings. He struck out 12 and walked two.

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MLB

Saturday, October 1

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Hot lines: Saturday's best MLB bet
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St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (-220, 7)

Roy Halladay and Kyle Lohse are both pitching as well right now as they have all season. Halladay has a 1.57 ERA over his last three starts, and Lohse responded with a 1.37 ERA in September after getting sporadic extra rest from manager Tony La Russa.

The under is 16-4-1 in the Phillies’ last 21 games, and 8-3-1 in these teams’ last 12 meetings.

If you recall, Halladay tossed a no-hitter in his first playoff start last year against the Reds.

But he won’t be overconfident against the Cards, who likely will be missing Matt Holliday.

“We all don't take them lightly,” Halladay told MLB. Com. “But at the same time, I feel like without an arrogant tone to it, we believe we have a team that can go out and get the job done.”

Halladay should do his part. He's 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA in four career starts against St. Louis.

Lohse has a 3.43 career ERA against the Phils, and went 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA against them this year. If he stays hot, runs will be very hard to come by.

Pick: Under

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**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 10:33 PM

MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 1

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ARIZONA (94 - 68) at MILWAUKEE (96 - 66) - 2:00 PM
IAN KENNEDY (R) vs. YOVANI GALLARDO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 97-66 (+21.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 58-24 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 19-6 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday this season.
MILWAUKEE is 21-7 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in home games in day games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 97-66 (+21.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 79-48 (+24.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MILWAUKEE is 36-15 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
ARIZONA is 95-69 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 43-38 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ARIZONA is 95-69 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 71-45 (+29.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 36-30 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KENNEDY is 25-8 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 12-3 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 25-8 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 12-4 (+8.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 11-22 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GALLARDO is 16-22 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
GALLARDO is 7-15 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-3 (+1.2 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

IAN KENNEDY vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
KENNEDY is 1-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.050.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

YOVANI GALLARDO vs. ARIZONA since 1997
GALLARDO is 5-0 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 1.20 and a WHIP of 0.933.
His team's record is 5-0 (+5.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.1 units)

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ST LOUIS (90 - 72) at PHILADELPHIA (102 - 60) - 5:00 PM
KYLE LOHSE (R) vs. ROY HALLADAY (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 6-3 (+4.4 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.3 Units)

KYLE LOHSE vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
LOHSE is 3-4 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.43 and a WHIP of 1.260.
His team's record is 4-6 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-4. (+1.4 units)

ROY HALLADAY vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
HALLADAY is 2-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 2.10 and a WHIP of 1.033.
His team's record is 3-1 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)

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TAMPA BAY (91 - 71) at TEXAS (96 - 66) - 7:05 PM
JAMES SHIELDS (R) vs. DEREK HOLLAND (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 5-4 (+0.8 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. TEXAS since 1997
SHIELDS is 5-3 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.41 and a WHIP of 0.963.
His team's record is 6-3 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-6. (-3.5 units)

DEREK HOLLAND vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
HOLLAND is 3-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 6.51 and a WHIP of 1.626.
His team's record is 3-2 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-0. (+5.0 units)

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DETROIT (95 - 67) at NY YANKEES (97 - 65) - 8:05 PM
DOUG FISTER (R) vs. IVAN NOVA (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-3 (+1.7 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

DOUG FISTER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
FISTER is 1-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

IVAN NOVA vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.

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**Udog** · 10-01-2011, 08:24 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

College football trends for Saturday’s games:

-- Alabama is 7-1-2 vs spread in its last ten games vs Florida.

-- Home team covered 10 of last 13 Rutgers-Syracuse games.

-- Northwestern covered seven of last nine tries as a road underdog.

-- Michigan covered once in its last 11 conference home games.

-- Idaho covered eight of last 11 tries as a road underdog.

-- Underdogs covered six of last seven Georgia Tech-NC State games.

**********************

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud........

13) Today’s word of the day is scapegoat, which Webster’s defines as:
a) one that bears the blame for others
b) one that is the object of irrational hostility.

Living example of a scapegoat: Terry Francona, who the Red Sox stupidly let go Friday. Before Francona became skipper of Red Sox, they hadn’t won a title since 1918. Now they’ve won two in the last seven years, but that’s not good enough, according to the nitwit suits upstairs. We’ll see how this one works out for them.

12) Some genius in Las Vegas bet $400 on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at 500-1, so if they win the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in February, he’ll net $200,000. One small problem, the Chiefs are 0-3. 0-3 teams rarely wind up in the playoffs, much less winning them.

11) Oakland Raiders sold out their first two home games; over last two seasons, Silver and Black sold out only twice in 16 home dates.

10) Houston-UTEP game Thursday night had some of the worst defense I’ve ever seen; do these teams even practice tackling? Cougars had over 700 yards of total offense with more than 10:00 left to play- they wound up escaping El Paso with a 49-42 win that was more sandlot ball than anything else.

9) Before Wednesday, Bronx Bombers had won 925 (yes, 925) games in a row when they led by 7+ runs in the 8th inning. That should make the Red Sox fans feel just terrific.

8) Braves scored a total of 92 runs during their 10-20 faceplant to end the season. As usual, knee-jerk reaction was “Fire the hitting coach!!!” No one gives the hitting coach credit when teams crush the ball. We’re not a very loyal society.

7) Was surprised to read that Red Sox still have 11 guys on their team who played on the 2007 World Champs, There’s something to be said for adding key pieces who are hungry for a title (think Hunter Pence in Philly, or Earl Monroe for the Knicks in the early 70’s). A key player who is hungry for a title invigorates teammates who have already won and may be getting complacent.

6) Teams averaged 4.28 runs/game this season, lowest since 1992. Highest scoring came back in 2000, when teams averaged 5.14 runs/game.

5) Michigan Wolverines are winning under 1st-year coach Brady Hoke, but a red flag: They’ve completed less than half their passes three games in a row. When they play Wisconsin/Ohio State, they’re going to need some plays from the passing game.

4) No divisional games in the NFL this week, second time in first four weeks this season. Schedule was designed that way in case the lockout dragged on into the season and caused a late start.

3) Its not a good sign when you don't sell out your home opener. Bengals drew 43,363 to last week; now a QB they cut two years ago (Ryan Fitzpatrick) returns to town as an early MVP candidate for the Bills, who’ve beaten Cincinnati ten straight times, and are favored to make it 11 in a row.

2) There is nothing common about common sense. Padres fired their hitting coach Thursday for the fifth time in seven years, then said they’re keeping the outfield fences at the ridiculously deep distances they’ve been at all along. Of course, if they moved the fences in, no doubt they’d wind up firing the pitching coach.

1) Not to say my Oakland A's had an abysmal season, but Friday they fired both the pitching and hitting coaches. That doesn't leave much else.

**Udog** · 10-01-2011, 08:27 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Arizona at Milwaukee
The Diamondbacks look to open the series and build on their 11-2 record in Ian Kennedy's last 13 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Arizona is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1

Game 955-956: Arizona at Milwaukee (2:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 16.135; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.353
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Under

Game 957-958: St. Louis at Philadelphia (5:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.288; Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.679
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-210); Over

Game 959-960: Tampa Bay at Texas (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.562; Texas (Holland) 16.160
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-120); Under

**Udog** · 10-01-2011, 08:36 AM

MLB

Saturday, October 1

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Trend Report
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2:07 PM
ARIZONA vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

5:07 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. PHILADELPHIA
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Philadelphia's last 21 games

7:07 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. TEXAS
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Tampa Bay's last 18 games
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Texas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

8:37 PM
DETROIT vs. NY YANKEES
Detroit4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-5-1 SU in their last 7 games ,when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 0-4-1 SU in their last 5 games ,
NY Yankees are 1-4-1 SU in their last 6 games ,when playing Detroit

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**Udog** · 10-01-2011, 10:05 AM

MLB
Short Sheet

Saturday, October 1

ARIZONA at MILWAUKEE, 2:00 PM ET - NL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 1 TBS
KENNEDY: 12-3 TSR in road games
GALLARDO: MIL 21-7 in home day games

ST LOUIS at PHILADELPHIA, 5:00 PM ET - NL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 1 TBS
LOHSE: STL 2-6 off div win by 6+ Runs
HALLADAY: 9-1 TSR working on 5 or 6 days rest

TAMPA BAY at TEXAS, 7:05 PM ET - AL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 2 - TB Leads 1-0 TNT
SHIELDS: 5-1 Under in October
HOLLAND: 10-3 Under on Saturday

DETROIT at NY YANKEES, 8:05 PM ET - AL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 1 TBS
FISTER: n/aNOVA: n/a

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 10-01-2011, 03:57 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, October 1

Cardinals vs 6-3 vs Philly this year, holding Phils to three or less runs in all six wins, with five of those six staying under total. Phillies scored 10-4-9 runs in their three wins. St Louis won three of four here in a series in September that obviously meant more to Cards. Phillies are 19-4 in last 23 Halladay starts; he is 3-1, 1.45 in his last four starts, but the loss was vs St Louis 12 days ago- he was 1-1, 3.21 vs Cards this year. Lohse won that Sept 19 start vs Phils; he is 3-0, 2.59 in his last five starts, 1-1, 2.35 in couple starts against the Phillies.

Shields' last six starts were all vs Texas-Boston-Bronx; he allowed one run in 17 IP in beating Texas twice in early September, 4-1/5-1. Overall, he is 1-2, 4.50 in his last three starts. Holland is 5-0, 2.29 in his last six starts, but the one start he didn't win was in St Pete. Holland allowed 9 runs in 12.1 IP in two starts vs Rays this season. Rangers are 5-5 vs Tampa Bay this year, with three of the five wins via shutouts; Rays scored 5-4-5-5-9 runs in their four wins, 5-0-0-2-0 in the five losses. Texas scored 7+ runs in three of its five wins. Under was 4-4-1 in the nine series games, 2-1 in this park.

Detroit is 4-3 against Bronx Bombers this year, but last of those games was way back on May 5; home team won five of seven games, as Tigers lost two of three in season opening series in Bronx. Detroit held them to 3 or less runs in three of four series wins. Bronx scored 6-10-5 runs in its three series wins. Verlander is 12-0, 2.78 in his last 13 starts; he gave up three runs in six IP in both starts vs Bronx, with Tiger bullpen losing both of those games. Sabathia is 0-1, 4.85 in two starts against Detroit in 2011-- he allowed 41 hits in his last 32.1 IP, is 0-1, 3.32 in his last three starts. Bombers are 6-6 in his last dozen starts. Over was 4-3 in series games, 3-0 in this ridiculously small park.

**Udog** · 10-01-2011, 03:59 PM

WNBA Finals
Dunkel

Atlanta at Minnesota
The Lynx look to open up the Finals and build on their 11-3 ATS record in their last 14 games as a home favorite. Minnesota is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2

Game 651-652: Atlanta at Minnesota (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.164; Minnesota 122.718
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 5 1/2; 161
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5 1/2); Under

WNBA Finals
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 2

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ATLANTA (24 - 15) at MINNESOTA (31 - 8) - 10/2/2011, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA Finals

Sunday, October 2

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. MINNESOTA
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

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Announcement

Saturday's Trends and Indexes - 10/1 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

Saturday's Trends and Indexes - 10/1 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

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