Announcement

**Udog** · 09-29-2011, 11:46 PM

Friday’s betting tips: Rookie SP to start Game 1 for TB

Who’s hot

MLB: Texas has won 28 of its last 39 home games.

MLB: Detroit has won 12 of its last 16 road games.

NCAAF: Utah State is 14-5-1 against the spread in its last 20 games as an underdog.

Who’s not

MLB: Tampa Bay is 2-6 in its last eight playoff games.

MLB: The New York Yankees have lost four in a row.

NCAAF: BYU is 5-15-1 against the spread in its last 21 games against WAC opponents.

Key stat

1978 – The Utah State Aggies haven’t won at LaVell Edwards Stadium since 1978, a span of 15 consecutive games. The Aggies are 7.5-point road underdogs against BYU on Friday.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers - Martinez won't let a bruised toe keep him out of Game 1 of the American League Divisional Series against the New York Yankees on Friday. Martinez fouled a ball off his big right toe in Wednesday's season finale against the Cleveland Indians. The injury occurred in the first inning, and he was eventually lifted in the seventh. The team's medical staff had to drill into the nail of his big toe to drain it. Martinez hit .330 this season with 12 home runs and 103 RBIs in 540 at-bats.

Game of the day

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-135, 7)

Notable quotable

"This team never quits. We didn't quit when we were 0-6 at the start of the season, we didn't quit in September, we didn't quit when we were seven runs down in the last game of the season and Boston was winning. It looks like this team has what it takes." – Tampa Bay lefty David Price after his club bailed him out of Wednesday’s comeback win over the Yankees. Price allowed five earned runs and two homers over four innings before the Rays fought back to clinch a postseason berth with an 8-7 win in extras.

Notes and tips

The Tampa Bay Rays announced Thursday that rookie left-hander Matt Moore will start Game 1 of the American League division series against the Texas Rangers. The 22-year-old Moore will be making his second career start on Friday. He has pitched just 9 1/3 innings this season in the majors since being called up from the minors. In his first career start, Moore struck out 11 batters in five scoreless innings against the New York Yankees. Tampa Bay completed a remarkable comeback Wednesday to win the wild card, beating the Yankees on Evan Longoria’s home run in 12th inning. The Rays are +165 underdogs in Game 1.

Just three games into his Minnesota Vikings tenure, Donovan McNabb is already butting heads with the coaching staff. A report out of Minnesota suggests coaches have approached McNabb about correcting some mechanical issues related to his throwing arm. McNabb replied by saying there's nothing to fix, and that "some throws, you just miss." McNabb has completed just 58 per cent of his passes through the opening three games of the season, throwing for 478 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. The Vikings (0-3) face Kansas City on Sunday.

Third baseman Alex Rodriguez and catcher Jesus Montero are expected to be fine in time for the start of the American League Divisional Series between the New York Yankees and the Detroit Tigers. Rodriguez was given Wednesday's regular-season finale off to rest his surgically repaired right knee, which felt sore. Rodriguez said he simply didn't want to risk further injury playing on Tampa Bay's turf surface. The 36-year-old appeared in just 99 games this season due to injuries. He batted .276 with 16 homers and 62 RBIs in 373 at-bats. Montero took a foul ball off his fingers in Wednesday's loss to the Rays. X-rays came back negative and he's expected to assume the role of backup catcher against the Tigers. Montero, 21, had a sensational stint in his first taste of major-league action, hitting .351 with four homers and 12 RBIs in just 57 at-bats. The Yankees are set as -130 favorites for Game 1.

**Udog** · 09-29-2011, 11:50 PM

CFL
Dunkel

Week 14

Edmonton at BC
The Eskimos look to take advantage of a BC team that is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 home games. Edmonton is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has BC favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+5 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 30

Game 291-292: Montreal at Winnipeg (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 114.881; Winnipeg 111.383
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 3 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Montreal by 6; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+6); Under

Game 293-294: Edmonton at BC (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 114.456; BC 117.631
Dunkel Line: BC by 3; 53
Vegas Line: BC by 5 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+5 1/2); Over

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1

Game 295-296: Saskatchewan at Calgary (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 111.099; Calgary 115.423
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 4 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+5 1/2); Over

Game 297-298: Hamilton at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 111.917; Toronto 106.904
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 5; 52
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-3 1/2); Under

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

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Friday, september 30

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MONTREAL (7 - 5) at WINNIPEG (8 - 4) - 9/30/2011, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-4 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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EDMONTON (7 - 5) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (6 - 6) - 9/30/2011, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-4 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-4 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, October 1

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SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 8) at CALGARY (7 - 5) - 10/1/2011, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 102-64 ATS (+31.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 88-57 ATS (+25.3 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 9 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-4 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-4 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HAMILTON (6 - 6) at TORONTO (3 - 9) - 10/1/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 5-4 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 6-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL

Week 14

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Trend Report
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Friday, September 30

7:30 PM
MONTREAL vs. WINNIPEG
Montreal is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 13-4-2 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games at home

10:30 PM
EDMONTON vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of British Columbia's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton

Saturday, October 1

4:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games when playing Calgary
Calgary is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan

7:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Hamilton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games

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CFL

Week 14

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Canadian Bacon: CFL Week 14 odds and picks
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Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+6.5, 49.5)

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are dealing with injuries at key positions. Quarterback Buck Pierce, who has been nursing a rib injury, will be out of this showdown for first place in the East, leaving the starting job to Alex Brink.

That could prove to be a fatal blow to any hope the Bombers had in winning their division. The hiring of journeyman Michael Bishop is a clear sign that all is not well in Swaggerville. Of course we must also mention the loss of both starting RB Fred Reid and Carl Volny for the remainder of the season, weakening considerably their offense. On defense, Winnipeg will be without DT Doug Brown.

The Alouettes had better news this week when it was announced that Anthony Calvillo didn’t suffer a concussion after the brutal hit he took last Friday in Edmonton. Wideout Kerry Watkins will be back in the lineup for Montreal, giving Calvillo another option to go deep. On defense, Montreal still has a number of injuries but the players who were promoted as starters - Seth Williams, Greg Laybourne, Jeff Hecht and Marc-O Brouillette - have no reason to be ashamed of their play so far.

Pick: Montreal

Edmonton Eskimos at B.C. Lions (-5.5, 49)

The Lions will be back at their newly-renovated B.C. Place after an 18-month exile and with more than 41,000 spectators on hand, it should be quite an explosive welcome.

B.C. has won five in a row and it’s no surprise that after a terrible 0-5 start that this club is seen as a heavy favorite to participate as West division representative in the 99th Grey Cup at B.C. Place.

Lions quarterback Travis Lulay is showing poise and confidence, appearing more and more like one of the best quarterbacks in the CFL. He’s developing some great chemistry with receivers Geroy Simon and Arland Bruce.

The Eskimos are much healthier than they were when they were hammered 36-1 by the Lions earlier this season, but while the score shouldn’t be that lopsided, the end result in the standings should be the same.

Also note that veteran kicker Paul McCallum, the dean of active players in the CFL, has hit 24 consecutive field goals. He only needs four more to tie the all-time record established by former Roughrider Dave Ridgeway.

Pick: B.C.

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Calgary Stampeders (-6, 55.5)

These teams need some major defensive help. The Roughriders gave up 42 points against the Lions last week while the Stamps were mauled for 55 points by the Tiger-Cats in the second Touchdown Atlantic Classic played in Moncton.

Saskatchewan’s lack of depth has been evident from the start of the 2011 season, but the collapse of the Stampeders over the last few weeks is stunning. Calgary gave up 142 points in its last four games, three of which turned out to be losses.

Coach John Hufnagel has announced that veteran running back Joffrey Reynolds will be a healthy scratch for the second straight game. Reynolds is having one of the worst seasons of his career with an average of only 4.8 yards per carry.

In front of their fans in Calgary, against a Riders team that can’t carry the “Miller effect” on forever, the Stampeders have a great opportunity to prove they can contend in the West.

But they must improve on their turnover ratio (minus-9) and penalties (1169 yards, the worst record in the CFL). The Riders will likely be without slotback Andy Fantuz (right ankle) and WR Dallas Baker (concussion).

Pick: Calgary

Hamilton Tiger Cats at Toronto Argonauts (+4, 54)

The Argos may have pitched an upset 25-24 win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers but they have lots of work to do.

Their front seven had its best game of the season against Winnipeg with four sacks and 13 tackles. Ricky Foley, who was chosen Canadian Player of the Week, had six of those tackles plus a pair of sacks. It will take another stellar performance on defense if Toronto has any hope against Hamilton.

Meanwhile, the Tiger-Cats are coming back from the Maritimes with renewed confidence after a huge win against the Stampeders. The bottom line is that Hamilton has a much better team with much more speed than the Argos.

The secondary remains suspect at best but the acquisition of DB Milt Collins from Calgary should fill a big hole. Collins will replace Ryan Hinds at safety against the Argos. The Tiger-Cats have only managed six interceptions in 12 games and are dead last in the league with four turnovers.

Pick: Hamilton

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**Udog** · 09-29-2011, 11:51 PM

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, September 30

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TAMPA BAY (91 - 71) at TEXAS (96 - 66) - 5:05 PM
JEFF NIEMANN (R) vs. C.J. WILSON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 20-30 (-25.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 97-65 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 33-17 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TEXAS is 20-5 (+12.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season.
TEXAS is 19-6 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
TEXAS is 93-60 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 71-43 (+15.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
WILSON is 46-24 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WILSON is 44-22 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TAMPA BAY is 91-71 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 47-30 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 44-37 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-12 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in road games in day games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 83-63 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 31-19 (+12.9 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 51-36 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
NIEMANN is 10-3 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
NIEMANN is 9-2 (+8.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NIEMANN is 9-3 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 5-4 (+0.8 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)

JEFF NIEMANN vs. TEXAS since 1997
NIEMANN is 0-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 11.17 and a WHIP of 1.861.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

C.J. WILSON vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
WILSON is 4-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.18 and a WHIP of 0.970.
His team's record is 4-1 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)

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DETROIT (95 - 67) at NY YANKEES (97 - 65) - 8:35 PM
JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. C.C. SABATHIA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 111-176 (-52.5 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
DETROIT is 3-16 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 97-65 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 90-54 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 96-68 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 46-36 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 90-66 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 42-29 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 20-9 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
VERLANDER is 26-9 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 15-4 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 45-19 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 7-15 (-13.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
NY YANKEES are 53-53 (-18.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-3 (+1.7 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
VERLANDER is 4-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.06 and a WHIP of 1.548.
His team's record is 6-5 (+1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-4. (+1.7 units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. DETROIT since 1997
SABATHIA is 15-12 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.54 and a WHIP of 1.292.
His team's record is 18-14 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 15-17. (-3.9 units)

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Saturday, October 1

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ARIZONA (94 - 68) at MILWAUKEE (96 - 66) - 2:00 PM
IAN KENNEDY (R) vs. YOVANI GALLARDO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 97-66 (+21.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 58-24 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 19-6 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday this season.
MILWAUKEE is 21-7 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in home games in day games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 97-66 (+21.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 79-48 (+24.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MILWAUKEE is 36-15 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
ARIZONA is 95-69 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 43-38 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ARIZONA is 95-69 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 71-45 (+29.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 36-30 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KENNEDY is 25-8 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 12-3 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 25-8 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 12-4 (+8.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 11-22 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GALLARDO is 16-22 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
GALLARDO is 7-15 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-3 (+1.2 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

IAN KENNEDY vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
KENNEDY is 1-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.050.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

YOVANI GALLARDO vs. ARIZONA since 1997
GALLARDO is 5-0 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 1.20 and a WHIP of 0.933.
His team's record is 5-0 (+5.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.1 units)

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ST LOUIS (90 - 72) at PHILADELPHIA (102 - 60) - 5:00 PM
KYLE LOHSE (R) vs. ROY HALLADAY (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 6-3 (+4.4 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.3 Units)

KYLE LOHSE vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
LOHSE is 3-4 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.43 and a WHIP of 1.260.
His team's record is 4-6 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-4. (+1.4 units)

ROY HALLADAY vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
HALLADAY is 2-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 2.10 and a WHIP of 1.033.
His team's record is 3-1 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)

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TAMPA BAY (91 - 71) at TEXAS (96 - 66) - 7:05 PM
JAMES SHIELDS (R) vs. DEREK HOLLAND (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 5-4 (+0.8 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. TEXAS since 1997
SHIELDS is 5-3 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.41 and a WHIP of 0.963.
His team's record is 6-3 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-6. (-3.5 units)

DEREK HOLLAND vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
HOLLAND is 3-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 6.51 and a WHIP of 1.626.
His team's record is 3-2 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-0. (+5.0 units)

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DETROIT (95 - 67) at NY YANKEES (97 - 65) - 8:05 PM
DOUG FISTER (R) vs. IVAN NOVA (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-3 (+1.7 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

DOUG FISTER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
FISTER is 1-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

IVAN NOVA vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.

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**Udog** · 09-29-2011, 11:59 PM

MLB

Friday, September 30

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Payoff pitch: Friday’s best MLB mound matchup
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Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers vs. CC Sabathia New York Yankees

Justin Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA)

This is Verlander’s first postseason start since 2006 and the fifth of his career. Times have definitely changed since the last time he climbed the mound in the playoffs. Back then, Verlander was just a fireballing rookie and his numbers show it.

He is 1-2 with a fat 5.82 ERA over 21 2/3 innings in the playoffs with 23 strikeouts to go against 10 walks. Batters hit him at a .292 clip and have five home runs against this season’s Cy Young frontrunner.

This season, Verlander went 24-5 with a career-best 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts compared to only 57 walks while holding hitters to a .192 batting average. He basically led the American League in just about every significant stat.

"This year I feel like I've just found myself to be more mentally prepared and physically prepared," Verlander told reporters. "The combination of that has led to what's going on now."

Detroit’s ace was roughed up for five runs and two homers in a 6-5 no-decision loss to Baltimore in his start of the regular season, which was the first time Detroit lost one of his starts since July 15.

CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.00 ERA)

It’s no shock that Sabathia gets the nod to start Game 1; he has opened six series already in his career and has helped New York to a 7-1 record when he has climbed the hill for the Yanks.

He comes into this start well rested. The Yanks decided to make his Sept. 21 start against the Rays his last of the regular season to give him as much rest as possible. That decision denied him a shot at his 20th win, but should serve the Yanks well in the postseason, especially if Sabathia is needed on short rest. He threw 65 pitches in simulated start last Sunday just to keep him on his regular schedule.

“Just the normal way I would go about facing righties and lefties,” Sabathia told reporters. “Trying to pitch like I would pitch in a game.”

Last season the big lefty was 2-0 in three playoff starts, but his ERA ballooned to 5.63 and batters hit .333 against him with three homers over 16 innings of work. In his postseason career he is 7-4 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP.

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MLB

Friday, September 30

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Hot lines: Friday’s best MLB bets
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Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers (-175, 8)

It’s hard to bet against the Rangers in Game 1.

They have won 14 of their last 16, have a killer record at home (52-29) and own an offense that produced 5.28 runs per game. Plus they have C.J. Wilson on the hill Friday, a guy who has allowed more than two runs only once over his last 11 trips to the hill.

But if you were ever going to put a nice underdog bet down based largely upon momentum, you’d be hard pressed to find a better spot than Friday’s game.

"I love what the Rays do and create a first within the organization, but now we've done something as a first for Major League Baseball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said after his team pulled off a remarkable 8-7 win over New York to punch their playoff ticket.

"It's all on the guys, it's all on the coaches. If you're with us on a daily basis, the work routine, the camaraderie, the coaches preparation is outstanding. That's how we're able to overcome a nine-game deficit going into September."

Down 7-0 to the Yanks, they pulled themselves off the mat with Evan Longoria leading the way and are now playing with the house’s money. They have won five straight games and managed at least five runs in each of those victories.

At this price, we’re jumping all over the Rays to keep it going.

Pick: Rays

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**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 12:06 AM

MLB

ALDS

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American League Division Series previews and picks
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The American League playoffs begin Friday. Check out our breakdown of both AL Divisional Series and our predictions to advance to the ALCS.

Detroit Tigers (95-67) vs. New York Yankees (97-65)

Regular season: Tigers won 4-3
Series odds: Yankees -160, Tigers +120

PITCHING

New York relied heavily on ace C.C. Sabathia (19-8, 3.00 ERA) and a three-man rotation en route to its last World Series title in 2009. But Sabathia, despite his 19 wins, has labored down the stretch. There are questions marks galore behind him with rookie Ivan Nova (16-4, 3.70 ERA, unbeaten since June 3), soft-serving Freddy Garcia (12-8, 3.62 ERA) and enigmatic A.J. Burnett (11-11, 5.15 ERA). The one constant that covers up the blotches is Mariano Rivera at the back of the bullpen.

Detroit’s hopes rest on ace Justin Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA), who had won 12 straight starts before taking a no-decision in his final start. Midseason acquisition Doug Fister (11-13, 2.83 ERA) has actually outpitched Verlander down the stretch, allowing five runs in his last seven starts. Max Scherzer (15-9, 4.43 ERA) carries the same "great-stuff-but" tag as Burnett, while Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.75 ERA) is slotted for Game 4. Closer Jose Valverde has converted all 49 saves.

Edge: Tigers

HITTING

The Tigers have an awesome 1-2 punch in Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Cabrera (.344, 30 homers, 105 RBIs) closed the season with six straight multi-hit games to win the league batting title and Martinez (.330, 12, 103) had 26 RBIs in September. SS Jhonny Peralta (.299, 21, 86) and C Alex Avila (.295, 19 HRs, 82 RBIs) have had huge seasons and Magglio Ordonez (.255, 5 HRs, 32 RBIs) is riding an 18-game hitting streak.

New York led the majors with 222 homers. CF Curtis Granderson (.262, 41 HRs, 119 RBIs) had an MVP season but enters on a 1-for-20 slump. Mark Teixeira (.248, 39 HRs, 111 RBIs) and Robinson Cano (.302, 28 HRs, 118 RBIs) form a lethal middle of the lineup. Derek Jeter's late-season surge (.297, 6 HRs, 61 RBIs) bodes well for another big October, but the health of Alex Rodriguez (.276, 16 HRs, 62 RBIs) and his ailing knee is a question mark.

Edge: Yankees

INTANGIBLES

The teams haven’t played each other since May 5. Detroit finished 30-9 while the Yankees were on cruise control the last week. The Tigers beat New York in four games in 2006 ALDS. The Yankees are reliant on the long ball so they must play well at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. Verlander hasn’t beaten New York in two starts this season. Jim Leyland gives Tigers edge in managerial strategy over Joe Girardi, but Rivera is the great equalizer in a short series.

Edge: Even

PREDICTION: Yankees in five games

Tampa Bay Rays (91-71) vs. Texas Rangers (96-66)

Regular season: Texas won 5-4
Series odds: Rangers -160, Rays +120

PITCHING

Texas has a deep starting rotation and was the first AL team since 1977 to have five pitchers with 13 or more victories. Left-hander C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94) is the anchor and fellow lefty Derek Holland (16-5, 3.95) had a strong second half. Right-hander Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40) had some impressive performances in the 2010 postseason and left-hander Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.46) was a huge surprise. Alexi Ogando (13-8, 3.51) will work from the bullpen, which is strong with closer Neftali Feliz (32 saves) and Mike Adams leading the way.

Tampa Bay’s rotation is led by right-hander James Shields (16-12, 2.82) and his 11 complete games. Rookie right-hander Jeremy Hellickson (13-10, 2.95) is solid and Tampa Bay needs tough left-hander David Price (12-13, 3.35) to rebound after a winless September. Right-handers Jeff Niemann (11-7, 4.06) and Wade Davis (11-10, 4.45) are battling consistency issues. Kyle Farnsworth (25 saves) is the closer.

Edge: Rangers

HITTING

The Rangers were third in baseball with 855 runs scored and second with 210 home runs. Three players hit 30 homers and the trio didn’t include outfielders Nelson Cruz (29) or Josh Hamilton (25). Third baseman Adrian Beltre hit 12 of his 32 homers in September, second baseman Ian Kinsler (32 homers, 30 steals) had his second 30-30 season and first baseman/catcher Mike Napoli hit a career-best 30 homers. Versatile Michael Young batted .338 and drove in a career-best 106 runs.

Tampa Bay scored 148 fewer runs and was one of the weaker offensive squads in the American League until turning it on in September. Third baseman Evan Longoria had 31 homers and 99 RBIs while batting a career-worst .244. Outfielder B.J. Upton (23 homers, 35 steals) combines power and speed. Second baseman Ben Zobrist (20 homers, 91 RBIs) and outfielder Matt Joyce (19 homers) had good first halves and struggled after the break. Designated hitter Johnny Damon (16 homers) is an experienced postseason veteran.

Edge: Rangers

INTANGIBLES

Texas beat Tampa Bay in five games in last year’s ALDS and won 14 of its final 16 games while setting a franchise record for victories. But who can ignore the Rays rebounding from a nine-game deficit on Sept. 2 to snatch the Wildcard from the Boston Red Sox? Winning the final five games and rallying from seven runs down against the Yankees on the final night to claim the Wildcard on Longoria’s 12th-inning homer is the type of feat that prompts visions of being a team of destiny.

Edge: Rays

PREDICTION: Rangers in four games

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MLB

NLDS

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National League Division Series previews and picks
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The National League playoffs begin Saturday. Check out our breakdown of both NL Divisional Series and our predictions to advance to the NLCS.

St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (102-60)

Regular season: Cardinals won 6-3
Series odds: Phillies -340, Cardinals +220

PITCHING

The moment Cliff Lee returned to the City of Brotherly Love, the Phillies pretty much clinched this category. With reigning National League Cy Young winner Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA), Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA), 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79 ERA) and veteran Roy Oswalt (9-10, 3.69 ERA) in the mix, this starting rotation is as good as it gets. In addition, rookie Vance Worley (11-3, 3.03 ERA) won nine straight decisions and was unbeaten in three and a half months at one point this season - and he proved to be the odd man out.

As for St. Louis, ace Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA) was needed to pitch the regular season finale and will not be available until later in the series. Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA), Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA) and Jake Westbrook (12-9, 4.66 ERA) are capable of carrying the Cardinals.

Edge: Phillies

HITTING

Collectively, St. Louis leads the National League in several major categories: Batting average (.273), runs scored (754), hits (1,501), RBIs (718). Not surprisingly, Albert Pujols (.299, 37 homers, 99 RBIs) steers this ship with veteran Lance Berkman (.301, 31 homers, 94 RBIs) enjoying a bounce-back season. The health of Matt Holliday (hand) could play a role in this series.

For its part, Philadelphia's lineup isn't as potent as it was in years' past, but the addition of Hunter Pence (.314, 22 homers, 97 RBIs) has been an obvious boon to Ryan Howard (.253, 33 homers, 116 RBIs).

Edge: Cardinals

INTANGIBLES

St. Louis overcame a 10.5-game deficit on Aug. 25 by winning 23 of its last 31 games to secure the postseason berth. Ironically, the Cardinals were rooting for the Phillies Wednesday.

The NL East champions set a franchise record with their 102nd win of the season by defeating the Atlanta Braves in 13 innings, thereby allowing St. Louis to clinch NL Wildcard. The Phillies have won 101 games in 1976 and 1977, but lost in the NL Championship Series both times.

Edge: Phillies

PREDICTION: Phillies in four games

Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (96-66)

Regular season: Diamondbacks won 4-3
Series odds: Brewers -180, Diamondbacks +130

PITCHING

The Brewers will trot out a rotation of Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Zack Greinke and Randy Wolf while the Diamondbacks are expected to counter with Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson in the first two games and some combination of lefthander Joe Saunders and rookie Josh Collmenter thereafter.

Despite Kennedy’s 21 wins, Milwaukee’s quartet holds the clear edge in power with two (Gallardo and Greinke) of the seven pitchers in the NL to finish over 200 strikeouts. Arizona‘s group leads in ERA with a combined 3.32 to 3.63.

While the Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been a big reason for their worst-to-first jump, the Brewers look even more stable with Francisco Rodriguez setting up John Axford and power arms like LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito in reserve. Axford has posted a 0.86 ERA in 27 appearances since the All-Star break and did not allow a run in September.

Edge: Brewers

HITTING

Arizona has one MVP candidate in the middle of its lineup in Justin Upton but Milwaukee has two, with Prince Fielder hitting behind Ryan Braun. The Diamondbacks finished fourth in the NL in runs scored while the Brewers ranked sixth, but again Milwaukee takes the edge in power. Led by Braun, Fielder, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, the Brewers hit 182 home runs to Arizona’s 170 and leads in slugging and on-base percentage.

The Diamondbacks are right-handed heavy through the middle of their lineup with Aaron Hill, Upton, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Young and Ryan Roberts likely getting the bulk of the playing time. Milwaukee will counter that with the likes of Gallardo, Greinke, Rodriguez and Axford.

The Brewers’ lineup skews right as well but at least have Fielder in the middle to keep right-handed pitchers honest. Milwaukee also happens to be one of the more difficult teams to strike out, ranking 14th in the NL with 1,080 K’s while Arizona has been punched out 1,243 times - the fourth most in the NL.

Edge: Brewers

INTANGIBLES

Milwaukee getting home-field advantage in the final week could turn out to be the key to the series. The Brewers were a major league-best 57-24 at home during the regular season while struggling to a 39-42 mark on the road. Arizona plays better at Chase Field (51-30) but is still a winning team (43-38) away from the desert.

Kirk Gibson and Ron Roenicke figure to finish first and second in the NL Manager of the Year voting in their full-season debuts and each has a veteran stable of coaches behind him. While the Brewers are often content to sit and wait for the home run on offense, the Diamondbacks take more chances at manufacturing runs, ranking second in the NL in stolen bases.

Arizona is the far superior defensive team, leading the majors by a healthy margin in ultimate zone rating topping Milwaukee in defensive efficiency.

Edge: Diamondbacks

PREDICTION: Brewers in four games

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**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 12:08 AM

NOTE:
For the initial posting of trends and indexes, we have provided information available up to the time of posting.
Additional updates for today’s games will be posted ASAP.

**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 08:43 AM

Friday's six-pack

Odds to win World Series:

Phillies 8-5-- Have best starting pitching.

Bronx 7-2-- Won't see Scott Proctor in this series.

Tigers 6-1-- Can Fister keep pitching the way he has been?

Brewers 7-1-- Went 15-0 in Greinke's home starts this year.

Rangers 15-2-- Not sold on their pitching.

Rays 8-1-- Wouldn't be in a hurry to bet against them.

Cardinals 13-1-- Holliday's injured hand a concern for offense.

Arizona 13-1-- Better team than most people realize.

*********************

Friday's List of 13: Looking back on the 2011 baseball season

13) When I think of the 2011 baseball season, I’ll think of how great Jose Reyes was for much of this season, how he got hurt, then how tentative he was when he finally came back, trying to protect his legs from another injury that could cost him tens of millions of dollars in this winter’s free agent market.

Yanking himself out of the season finale in the first inning to protect his lead in the batting race was bad PR, and could cost him some money this winter. You pay a guy $100M, you want a competitor, someone who is a gym rat and just wants to play. That doesn't sound like a guy who takes himself out of any game, much less in the first inning. At home.

12) I’ll think of some big money ballplayers who have been awful this season: Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, John Lackey, Carlos Zambrano, Vernon Wells, Dan Uggla (played better in second half of year, but hit .174 in first half). Guaranteed long-term contracts are definitely a major gamble for team owners.

11) Hard to believe the Dodgers are the worst-run franchise in baseball, but until Frank McCourt sells the team, that’s what they are. Whomever buys the team has a potential goldmine on his hands. Right now, its more like a landmine. Don Mattingly did well to keep the team around .500 in his first year as a big league skipper.

10) Lot of rainouts this year, even more rain delays. They started a ballgame a Bronx-Oriole game after 11pm local time one night- the game went on until 2:30am. Very considerate of the paying customer.

9) Brewers might be awful next year, but they’re going for it now, and drawing huge home crowds. Milwaukee has had unusually healthy starting pitchers; that combined with Prince Fielder’s imminent departure signal a downturn next year, but the present is glorious in Milwaukee. Enjoy the ride.

8) Until the Reds come up with five starting pitchers who primarily throw ground balls, they’re going to have seasons like this one; either that, or move back the fences a little. Bronson Arroyo gave up 46 homers this year- that’s an awful lot. Look at how well Aaron Harang did after leaving Cincinnati this year.

7) Red Sox started season 2-10, finished it in a 7-20 funk, but went 81-42 in between. Lot of dead money on this roster, but Jacoby Ellsbury really deserves some MVP consideration. Their offseason will be fascinating.

6) Pirates were in first place in July, then got screwed on worst umpiring call of the season in 19th inning of a game in Atlanta and never recovered, winding up with a losing record for the 19th consecutive season, but not before generating some excitement in western Pennsylvania.

5) Good to see Schenectady High’s Casper Wells hit 11 HRs in 215 ABs this year; remember him trying out as a senior for his high school basketball team- he didn’t make a squad that was loaded with talent and wound winning the NY State Championship, but he’s done alright for himself since, ya think?

4) Baseball needs to scrap the divisions, and just go to a 16/14-team league format, with top four in each league making the playoffs. This way, teams like Baltimore/Toronto have a chance, without having to beat either big money Bronx/Boston every year, just to have a shot at the playoffs.

3) Hope somebody involved with the 2011 Marlins is writing a book; looking from the outside, sounds like it was one hell of an interesting season in south Florida. Not successful or fun, just interesting.

2) It bugs me to watch games in these new stadiums and see so many empty seats around home plate; both New York ballparks, Washington come to mind (as well as Dodger Stadium, the 3rd-oldest MLB stadium). Tickets are just too damn expensive and in this economy, corporations aren’t agreeable to paying outrageous prices anymore.

1) The managing job Joe Maddon has done in St Pete is truly remarkable; not just this year, the whole ride this Rays’ team has been on. The 2011 Rays are like the Moneyball A’s; very solid starting pitching giving the group an expectation of winning and role players like Kotchman/Zobrist performing above/beyond the call of duty.

Hasn’t hurt that rookie Desmond Jennings has been better than the man he replaced in LF, Carl Crawford.

**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 08:44 AM

CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Montreal (7-5) @ Winnipeg (8-4)-- Bomber QB Pierce is out here, bad news for Winnipeg squad that is 4-2 at home, losing by point to Calgary and 22 to Saskatchewan. Bombers are 6-1 vs spread as underdogs, 2-1 at home. Alouettes are 4-5 in last nine games after 3-0 start; they're 3-3 on road after 34-21 win in Edmonton last week. Bombers' only win in last four games was 25-23 at Montreal two weeks ago. All six Montreal road games went over the total. Under is 8-4 in Winnipeg games.

Edmonton (7-5) @ BCLions (6-6)-- Teams split pair of meetings earlier this year in Edmonton; Eskimos (-2.5) won first meeting 33-17, then got crushed 36-1 (-6) five weeks later. Red-hot Lions won last five games by average score of 33-9 after a 1-6 start; four of five wins in winning streak were on road- BC is 2-3 as home favorite. beating Riders by 13, Argos by 22. Edmonton lost five of last seven games after 5-0 start; they're 4-3 an an underdog, 4-1 on road, losing by 12 at Winnipeg, 23 at Montreal.

Saskatchewan (4-8) @ Calgary (7-5)-- Stampeders already beat Riders in Regina twice this year, 22-18 (-2.5) in Week 5, 45-35 (-3.5) two weeks later. Calgary lost three of last four games after 6-2 start; they're 5-5 as favorites, 2-4 at home, as visitor won nine of their 12 games this season. Roughriders had three-game win streak snapped 42-5 at home last week; they're 3-6 as underdogs, 2-3 on road, losing road games by 30-13-6 pts. Under is 8-2 in last ten Rider games, 2-5 in last seven Calgary games.

Hamilton (8-4) @ Toronto (3-9)-- Argonauts (+7.5) lost 37-32 back in Week 7 in Hamilton; Argos snapped 3-game losing skid last week with 25-24 upset of Winnipeg. Toronto is 4-5 as an underdog this year, 1-1 at home- they're 2-3 SU at home, losing by 9-9-13 points. Hamilton lost its last three games on foreign soil, by 12-3-30 points- they're 1-2 as a fave, all at home. TiCats are 2-4 on road, winning 24-16 at Winnipeg, 39-31 at BC Place. Eight of last nine Calgary games went over the total.

**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 08:47 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Detroit at NY Yankees
The Tigers look to build on their 6-1 record in Justin Verlander's last 7 starts in Game 1 of a series. Detroit is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 30

Game 951-952: Tampa Bay at Texas (5:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 15.620; Texas (Wilson) 16.009
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-180); Under

Game 953-954: Detroit at NY Yankees (8:37 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.651; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.047
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Over

**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 08:55 AM

MLB
Short Sheet

Friday, September 30

TAMPA BAY at TEXAS, 5:05 PM ET - AL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 1 TBS
NIEMANN: TB 20-30 on Friday
WILSON: 14-1 TSR as a home favorite of -125 to -175

DETROIT at NY YANKEES, 8:35 PM ET - AL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 1 TBS
VERLANDER: DET 3-16 Away w/ day off
SABATHIA: NYY 10-0 Under if bullpen threw 9+ innings last game

**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 08:56 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, September 30

Rangers are 5-4 vs Tampa Bay this year, with three of the five wins via shutouts; Rays scored 5-4-5-5 runs in their four wins, 5-0-0-2-0 in the five losses. Texas scored 7+ runs in three of its five wins. Rookie Moore has made only one big league start, but he struck out 11 in blanking the Bronx Bombers for five innings Sept 22. He was 4-0, 1.37 in nine AAA starts, after spending most of season in AA Southern League. Wilson is 3-1, 1.93 in his last six starts; he is 2-0, 2.08 in three starts vs Rays, and two of those three starts were in September. Under was 4-4-1 in the nine series games, 2-1 in this park.

Detroit is 4-3 against Bronx Bombers this year, but last of those games was way back on May 5; home team won five of seven games, as Tigers lost two of three in season opening series in Bronx. Detroit held them to 3 or less runs in three of four series wins. Bronx scored 6-10-5 runs in its three series wins. Verlander is 12-0, 2.78 in his last 13 starts; he gave up three runs in six IP in both starts vs Bronx, with Tiger bullpen losing both of those games. Sabathia is 0-1, 4.85 in two starts against Detroit in 2011-- he allowed 41 hits in his last 32.1 IP, is 0-1, 3.32 in his last three starts. Bombers are 6-6 in his last dozen starts. Over was 4-3 in series games, 3-0 in this ridiculously small park.

**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 09:04 AM

MLB

Friday, September 30

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Trend Report
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5:07 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. TEXAS
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

8:37 PM
DETROIT vs. NY YANKEES
Detroit is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
NY Yankees are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

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**Udog** · 09-30-2011, 01:02 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Saturday, October 1

ARIZONA at MILWAUKEE, 2:00 PM ET - NL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 1 TBS
KENNEDY: 12-3 TSR in road games
GALLARDO: MIL 21-7 in home day games

ST LOUIS at PHILADELPHIA, 5:00 PM ET - NL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 1 TBS
LOHSE: STL 2-6 off div win by 6+ Runs
HALLADAY: 9-1 TSR working on 5 or 6 days rest

Announcement

Friday's Trends and Indexes - 9/30 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

Friday's Trends and Indexes - 9/30 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

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