The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

NY Yankees Close Campaign At Tampa Bay Rays

The regular season is scheduled to come to a close on Wednesday night, but the race for the Wild Cards in both the American League and the National League might extend things to a 163rd game. The Tampa Bay Rays will hope to nail down a spot in the postseason for the third time in franchise history in game No. 162 against the AL East champion New York Yankees on Wednesday.

The first pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. (ET) from Tropicana Field, and television coverage is tentatively scheduled for the YES Network, Sun Sports and the MLB Network. The ESPN family of networks could pick up coverage of the game as well depending on how the rest of the schedule plays out on Tuesday.

The Yankees know they aren't going to be using anyone in their rotation that will be around for the playoffs in this game. Manager Joe Girardi hasn't announced a starting pitcher as of Tuesday morning. Odds are that many of the regulars in the lineup are going to get the day off as well.

New York has earned that right, knowing that it has already locked up the best record in the American League, and will be hosting either the Detroit Tigers or Texas Rangers on Friday in the Bronx for Game 1 of the ALDS.

Tampa Bay is in a significantly different spot, though. Coming into play on Tuesday night, the Rays were at 89-71, an identical record shared with the Boston Red Sox. We know that regardless of what happens on Tuesday, manager Joe Maddon and company will neither have wrapped up a playoff bid, nor will have been eliminated from the postseason, so this game could be for all of the marbles.

Boston is going against the Baltimore Orioles in the final two games of the season and, for the time being, is scheduled to throw Jon Lester against Alfredo Simon on Wednesday.

Barring a change in heart, Maddon is going to be going with David Price in the biggest game of the season. Yes, Price has a losing record at 12-13, but he has numbers this year that suggest he could have been a Cy Young Award contender.

The southpaw is no stranger to big games, having pitched as a rookie out of the bullpen in the run to the World Series in 2008, but this is as big of a start as he has ever made in his career.

Price is holding batters to a .228 batting average this year and has a fantastic 3.35 ERA. His walks are down from a year ago with just 60 free passes, and for the first time in his career, Price has reached the 200+ strikeout barrier with 215 K's.

The issue of fatigue is there for Price, though. He has already thrown 220 1/3-innings in 2011, and this is going to be the first time that he is asked to make a 34th start in a regular season in his career. He hasn't pitched more than 6 2/3-innings in four straight starts as well, another issue that has to be a concern.

New York owns a 9-7 lead in the season series with Tuesday's action still pending, though the Rays did take the first game of this series on Monday night 5-2 thanks to a great pitching effort by James Shields.

Tampa Bay has gone 4-3 in the seven meetings thus far at Tropicana Field.

Veteran umpire Joe West is scheduled to have the plate for this one, and he brings a very strong 21-11-3 season trend to the 'over' into the game. However, the 'under' has cashed in two of three plate assignments at The Trop, with the third a 'push.' Two of those three contests were starts by Rays southpaw Price.

Should the Red Sox and Rays have a matching record, a one-game playoff will be held on Thursday for the right to take on either the Rangers or the Tigers in the ALDS on Friday. Tampa Bay will host the game by virtue of its 12-6 record against Boston in the regular season.

[StarDust Bum]

Texas Rangers Close Regular Season At Angels

Angels righty Jered Weaver will be looking for win No. 19 on Wednesday.
With Monday’s 4-3 loss to the Texas Rangers, the Los Angeles Angels were officially eliminated from postseason contention and will have to wait until next year to try to get back to the playoffs.

The Angels were given a very small opportunity to win the American League wild card when the Boston Red Sox lost earlier in the evening to the Baltimore Orioles, but they failed to take advantage of it. Los Angeles would have needed both the Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays to each lose their last two games while sweeping the Rangers in three games, which obviously is no longer possible.

Game time for Wednesday’s series and season finale is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. (ET).

Umpire Paul Emmel will be behind home plate, and he has seen a slight edge for the home teams in his games at 12-11. The ‘under’ is 13-10 when he calls balls and strikes.

Texas had won 10 of the 17 meetings with the Angels this season heading into Tuesday after knocking them out in the series opener, while the ‘over’ had gone 3-0-1 in the previous four games between the teams. Los Angeles fell below the .500 mark against AL West opponents with the setback at 27-28 compared to a stellar mark of 38-17 vs. divisional foes for the Rangers.

Shortstop Elvis Andrus paced Texas with four hits on Monday while third baseman Adrian Beltre hit a two-run homer and second baseman Michael Young drove in Andrus with what turned out to be the game-winning run in the eighth inning. Center fielder Peter Bourjos had an RBI single in the bottom of the ninth for the Angels, who fell short for the seventh time in 11 games.

Los Angeles was without rookie first baseman Mark Trumbo due a stress fracture in his right foot that will keep him sidelined for this game as well. Trumbo led the team with 29 homers and 87 RBI despite playing in just 149 games.

The Angels will send ace Jered Weaver (18-8, 2.41 ERA) to the mound one last time after already setting a career high for wins. He got the decision in a 3-1 loss to Oakland at home last time out on Friday as a heavy 185 favorite, giving up all three runs and six hits in 8 1/3 innings of work.

The Halos have won Weaver’s previous four starts, all as a favorite of 130 or higher. He is 9-6 lifetime against the Rangers in 25 starts with a 3.41 ERA and 8-2 at home this season with a 1.94 ERA. The ‘under’ is 3-1 in his last four outings.

Texas will counter with lefty Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.46), who has won each of his last four starts. Harrison has struggled against the Angels with a career mark of 2-2 against them and an ERA of 5.04. He has pitched well on the road though with a 6-4 record and a 3.09 ERA.

The weather forecast for Anaheim on Wednesday calls for a high temperature of 81 degrees under mostly sunny skies, cooling off to the mid-70s for first pitch.

[StarDust Bum]

Early Games:

Wednesday, September 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 1:10 PM ET Cincinnati -117 500
NY Mets - Over 9 500

Toronto - 2:10 PM ET Toronto -113 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 8.5 500

Colorado - 3:45 PM ET San Francisco -175 500
San Francisco - Under 7 500

Washington - 4:10 PM ET Washington -143 500
Florida - Over 7 500

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

September 28, 2011


SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Orioles are 7-0 since August 05, 2010 as a home 140+ dog when they blew a lead in their starter’s last start and lost for a net profit of $1150.




OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Red Sox are 0-12-1 OU since June 16, 2006 when Jon Lester starts after he went less than 5 innings in his previous start for a net profit of $1200 when playing the under.



STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Astros are 8-0 since April 20, 2010 when Brett Myers starts at home after more strike outs than hits allowed for a net profit of $935.



MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


The Mariners are 10-0 (+2.6 rpg) since September 2004 as a home dog of more than 140 when they are off a loss in which they scored fewer than four runs and never led, as long as they are not on a three-plus game losing streak.



TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Giants are 5-0-1 OU since May 26, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $500 when playing the over.

The Phillies are 6-0 since July 26, 2010 when Joe Blanton starts after the team won their last three games for a net profit of $600.

The Blue Jays are 7-0 OU since May 10, 2010 when Brandon Morrow starts on the road after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $700 when playing the over.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Future Results

September 28, 2011

Division Odds and Winners (Sportsbook.com)

Winners listed in Bold

National League East

Team ODDS
PHILADELPHIA -300
ATLANTA +400
FLORIDA +550
N.Y. METS +2500
WASHINGTON +3000



National League Central
Team ODDS
ST. LOUIS +100
CINCINNATI +300
MILWAUKEE +350
CHICAGO +500
HOUSTON +3500
PITTSBURGH +10000



National League West

Team ODDS
SAN FRANCISCO +160
COLORADO +190
LOS ANGELES +250
SAN DIEGO +1200
ARIZONA +1200


American League East
Team ODDS
BOSTON -150
NEW YORK +190
TAMPA BAY +800
TORONTO +1500
BALTIMORE +1800




American League Central
Team ODDS
MINNESOTA +150
DETROIT +160
CHICAGO +200
CLEVELAND +2000
KANSAS CITY +10000




American League West
Team ODDS
TEXAS +120
LOS ANGELES +160
OAKLAND +300
SEATTLE +1200




Over-Under Win Totals (Sportsbook.com)


National League Win Totals
Team Win Total Final Record Final Result
Arizona 72 ½ 94-67
Atlanta 88 89-72
Chicago Cubs 81 ½ 66
Cincinnati 85 ½ 79-82
Colorado 86 ½ 72-89
Florida 82 72-89
Houston 71 ½ 56-105
L.A. Dodgers 84 81-79
Milwaukee 85 ½ 95-66
N.Y. Mets 76 ½ 76-85
Philadelphia 96 ½ 101-60
Pittsburgh 67 ½ 72-89
San Diego 75 ½ 70-91
San Francisco 88 86
St. Louis 84 ½ 89-72
Washington 72 79-81
Projected Result Key: Over Under Even




American League Win Totals
Team Win Total Final Record Final Result
Baltimore 76 ½ 68-93
Boston 95 ½ 90-71
Chicago White Sox 85 ½ 79-82
Cleveland 71 ½ 80-81
Detroit 84 94-67
Kansas City 68 ½ 71-90
LA Angels 83 86-75
Minnesota 85 ½ 62-99
NY Yankees 91 ½ 97-64
Oakland 83 ½ 73-88
Seattle 69 ½ 67-94
Tampa Bay 84 ½ 90-71
Texas 86 ½ 95-66
Toronto 76 ½ 80-81
Projected Result Key: Over Under

[StarDust Bum]

Rays try to win Wild Card at home vs. Yankees

NEW YORK YANKEES (97-64)

at TAMPA BAY RAYS (90-71)


First pitch: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -250, New York +225, Total: 8.5

The Rays enter the final day of the regular season tied for the Wild Card lead, while the Yankees finish up with a meaningless game when the teams meet in Tampa on Wednesday.

The Yankees seemed to use Tuesday’s game as their final tune up for the playoffs, starting all of their regulars except for Derek Jeter, and using their top three relievers in a 5-3 loss. Expect them to treat Wednesday like a late Spring Training game with a normal regular lineup, but the starters leaving midway through the game. This is great news for Tampa starter David Price. While the lefty has been up-and-down all year, he threw eight innings of one-run ball at Yankee Stadium in August, and he should have no trouble finishing his night with a bunch of reserves. With the Yankees giving rookie Dellin Betances his first career start, the Rays should cruise in this one. TAMPA BAY is the pick. This FoxSheets trend also backs the Rays:

TAMPA BAY is 59-35 (62.8%, +18.3 Units) against the money line after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 5.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*).

Tampa has won four straight, and the Rays have won 18 of their past 24 at home. Price (12-13, 3.35 ERA) has been decent of late, allowing two earned runs or less in each of his past four starts. He’s just 4-6 since the All-Star break, but has a 2.86 ERA and has struck out 90 in 91.1 innings over his 14 post-break starts. Along with the strong start at Yankee Stadium in August, he held New York to two runs over 7.1 innings in a tough-luck loss at home on July 20. He is 6-3 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his career pitching in September.

The 23-year-old Betances (0-0, 27.00 ERA) was wild in his only Major League appearance, walking four and hitting a batter en route to allowing two runs in two-thirds of an inning against the Rays last Thursday. The 6-foot-8 righty is considered one of baseball’s best pitching prospects, but after walking 70 in 126.1 innings between Double- and Triple-A this year (15 BB in 21 IP at Triple-A), it’s clear he’s not ready for the big leagues.

[StarDust Bum]

Hudson looks to pitch Braves into playoffs Wednesday

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (101-60)

at ATLANTA BRAVES (89-72)


First pitch: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -190, Philadelphia +180, Total: 8

A four-game skid has left Atlanta tied for the NL Wild Card lead, but it’s hard to see them dropping a fifth straight when they host Philadelphia on Wednesday.

The Braves will be treating this like a playoff game, throwing ace Tim Hudson, while the Phillies will give rehabbing righty Joe Blanton the start and figure to make Wednesday a bullpen day for their young arms (similar to Blanton’s 24-pitch “start” on Saturday). With the Phillies likely to field a lineup that reinforces the fact that they have nothing to play for, ATLANTA is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a trend suggesting the Braves are ready for a win despite their struggling bats:

ATLANTA is 14-2 (87.5%, +11.6 Units) against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 15-game span this season. The average score was ATLANTA 4.8, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 2*).

Atlanta’s biggest problem has been that its offense has disappeared. The Braves have scored four runs in their past four games. Hudson (16-10, 3.23 ERA) has held his own late in the year, going 6-3 with a 3.07 ERA over 10 starts since August 1. The Braves went 7-3 in those outings. He looked a little shaky in Washington on Friday (5.2 innings, 9 hits, 3 runs) but Hudson has been lights out at home all season. He’s 10-4 with a 2.29 ERA at Turner Field, and the Braves have won his past five and nine of his past 10 starts in Atlanta, while Hudson posted a 1.77 ERA. The Braves won both his home starts against the Phillies early in the year.

Blanton (1-2, 5.03 ERA) has suffered through another injury-plagued season and is now just auditioning for a bullpen spot on Philly’s postseason roster. Since returning from an elbow injury on September 12, he’s yet to throw more than 24 pitches in an outing. He has pitched well though, allowing one run (an Allen Craig home run) over five innings, striking out seven without a walk. Lefty Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.75 ERA) is expected to pitch a couple innings in relief. He has a 2.57 ERA in four starts against Atlanta this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Cards try to keep playoff hopes alive in Houston

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (89-72)

at HOUSTON ASTROS (56-105)


First pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -200, Houston +185

The Cardinals have come all the way back to tie the NL Wild Card race with just one game remaining, and that contest will be at Houston, the worst team in baseball.

St. Louis is 22-9 (.710) in its past 31 games, and has erased what was once a 10½-game deficit to Atlanta. The Cardinals lost the series opener, 5-4 in 10 innings, but flexed their muscles with 13 runs on 17 hits Tuesday night, erasing a 5-0 deficit and winning 13-6. Chris Carpenter takes the mound for the finale. Although he’s pitched very well in his past four starts (1.45 ERA), he is 0-3 with a 4.62 ERA in his past five starts in Houston. Astros starter Brett Myers has been throwing even better than Carpenter, going 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA this month. He’s also compiled quality starts in five of his past six starts versus St. Louis. This pitching matchup is much more even than the lopsided money line, making HOUSTON the pick as the huge underdog.

The FoxSheets also love the Astros pick, evidenced by this extremely rare eight-star trend.

CARPENTER is 0-8 (-15.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season. (Team's Record). The average score was CARPENTER 1.9, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 8*).

The Cardinals are 9-5 versus Houston this year, but are 9-11 at Minute Maid Park in the past three seasons. Carpenter (10-9, 3.59 ERA) has been the biggest losing bet of any starting pitcher in the majors this year at -13.0 Units. He has also been mediocre on the road this season with a 4.16 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Only two current Astros have more than eight lifetime at-bats against Carpenter. Carlos Lee is a pathetic 7-for-46 (.152 BA) with 14 K, and Clint Barmes is 3-for-17 (.176 BA) against the Cards’ right-hander.

Myers (7-13, 4.31 ERA) has been dialed in this month with a 0.82 WHIP, 21 K and just three walks in 29.1 innings. And in his past six starts against St. Louis, he has posted a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He’s had mixed results against current Cardinals hitters though. Lance Berkman (4-for-23, 5 K), Ryan Theriot (4-for-18) and Yadier Molina (7-for-31, 5 K) have done very little when facing Myers. However, Albert Pujols (17-for-48, 4 HR, 8 RBI) and Skip Schumaker (11-for-30, 2 HR) have thoroughly enjoyed facing the Astros right-hander. Matt Holliday is 7-for-20 (.350 BA) with 2 HR and 6 RBI against Myers, but he is not expected to start after leaving Tuesday’s game with a hand injury.

[StarDust Bum]

Red Sox wrap up season with must-win game

BOSTON RED SOX (90-71)

at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (68-93)


First pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -210, Baltimore +190, Total: 9

It’s another must-win in Baltimore for the stumbling Red Sox, as they enter the final game of the regular season tied for the AL Wild Card lead.

Boston will pitch Jon Lester on three-days rest, only the second time he’s done so in his career. In April 2008, Lester filled in for an ill Daisuke Matsuzaka and allowed four runs and 11 base runners, striking out one, over five innings against the Angels. With the bullpen throwing a lot of pitches Tuesday night, the Red Sox are asking a lot of Lester, who has been awful in his past three outings (10.54 ERA over 13.2 innings), and that overshadows his career dominance against Baltimore. Alfredo Simon doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the Orioles’ chances, but considering the payout and the fact that Boston has dropped 15 of 20 while the O’s have gone 12-8 during the same span, BALTIMORE is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a pair of three-star trends backing the Orioles on Wednesday night:

Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) - off a one run win over a division rival, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts. (31-12 since 1997, 72.1%, +23.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Any team (BALTIMORE) - poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (AL). (89-58 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.5%, +50.7 units. Rating = 3*).

The main reason Lester (15-9, 3.49 ERA) is getting the ball on Wednesday is his track record against Baltimore. In 17 career starts against the O’s, Lester is 14-0 with a 2.33 ERA and the Sox are 16-1 in those outings. He faced Baltimore once this year, holding them to two runs over eight innings in a victory at Camden Yards in April.

But Lester has been brutal in losing his past three starts. The Rays knocked him around twice (8 ER in 11 IP), and the Yankees chased him after just eight outs on Saturday, scoring eight runs on eight hits.

A converted reliever, Simon (4-9, 4.85 ERA) has been subpar since moving into the rotation (3-8, 4.90 ERA in 15 starts). He was solid in Detroit on Friday, holding the Tigers to three runs over eight innings in a no-decision. He’s been bad more often than good in September though, posting a 6.52 ERA over 29 innings. He was beaten by Boston in July, allowing three runs and 11 base runners in 4.2 innings.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Evening Best Bets:


Boston - 7:05 PM ET Boston -215 500
Baltimore - Over 9 500

Cleveland - 7:05 PM ET Detroit -166 500
Detroit - Under 9.5 500

NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -240 500
Tampa Bay - Under 8.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Philadelphia +178 500
Atlanta - Under 8 500

St. Louis - 8:05 PM ET Houston +169 500
Houston - Over 7.5 500

Texas - 8:05 PM ET Texas -152 500
LA Angels - Over 8.5 500

Kansas City - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City -117 500
Minnesota - Over 8 500

Pittsburgh - 8:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +191 500
Milwaukee - Over 8.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 8:35 PM ET Chi. Cubs -113 500
San Diego - Under 6.5 500

LA Dodgers - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -115 500
Arizona - Under 8.5 500

Oakland - 10:10 PM ET Oakland -150 500
Seattle - Under 7.5 500

[Udog]

Great reading, Bum, as always! Thank you! Good luck tonight!