NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (10/2 - 10/3)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Sunday, October 2 - Monday, October 3

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL odds: Week 4 opening line report

Normally you go to Disney World after winning the Super Bowl. The Bills are going to Cincinnati.

Buffalo deserves to celebrate after beating big, bad New England for the first time in 16 tries and doing so in stunning fashion: overcoming a 21-0 deficit, intercepting glamour boy Tom Brady a record four times.

But will there be a hangover?

“That was essentially their Super Bowl in the AFC East, plus they have a game on deck with Philly,” Caesars Palace sportsbook supervisor Todd Fuhrman told *********** on Monday. “You talk about a situational spot that doesn’t favor Buffalo? This sets up as a prime flat spot for them.”

Caesars opened the Bills at -3 (-120) and at that price, Fuhrman said, “we fully anticipate the Bengals are a side the house is going to need Sunday. I think the public will come in hand over fist on Buffalo having seen what they did against the Pats.”

Early indications support that: 81 percent of *********** Consensus bettors are siding with Buffalo.

Fuhrman can see the line going to 3.5, but he feared too much wise-guy action on Cincy if he opened it that high.

After the historic 34-31 win, Bills corner Drayton Florence insisted his team expected the outcome.

"It's time for those past Buffalo Bill memories to fade away," said Florence, who intercepted a tipped ball in the fourth quarter and returned it 27 yards for a TD. "This is a new era, a new day. ... Everybody outside of this room is calling this an upset, but in this locker room, this is what we expected."
If that’s true, then perhaps there won’t be a major letdown.

Interestingly, teams that beat the Patriots in 2009 and 2010 went 6-1 straight up (SU) and 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in their next games. So there was no letdown, perhaps a confidence jolt instead.

On the flip side, the Bills are 1-5 SU and ATS after facing the Patriots, Covers Expert Marc Lawrence noted.

The Bills were 5-point dogs at Cincy last year when they outscored the Bengals 35-0 after halftime to win 49-31. The Bills also would have been underdogs this year had they played in Week 1 instead of Week 4, according to Lawrence.

Now the Bills are getting their due.

Oddsmaker Pete Korner recommended a line of 3.5 in Buffalo-Cincy.

“We went over the magic 3 number,” Korner said. “A lot of their magic was at home. Now you’re on the road, and even if you are playing an inferior team, Cincinnati hasn’t been that bad. And when you’re on the road, things happen.”

The Bills are 2-1 ATS, 3-0 SU and 3-0 O/U. They’re 3-0 ATS in the second half, when they morph into a scoring machine.

The posted total of 44 could rise. Buffalo’s three games have soared over the total by an average of 17.7 points.

BIGGEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Denver at Green Bay (-13, 47.5)

The Packers could be a bit flat after beating their archrivals at Soldier Field. But the Broncos are making their second straight trip east.

Green Bay is 13-4 ATS in non-conference games since 2007.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

New York Giants at Arizona (1, 44.5), Minnesota at Kansas City (1, 40), Tennessee at Cleveland (-1, 37.5)

The Giants are 14-6 ATS as road favorites since 2006.

The Chiefs showed some fight Sunday, losing 20-17 at San Diego for their first ATS win in their last nine games, including preseason. Minnesota has the dubious distinction of being the best of the NFL’s five winless teams. If the Lions had not gotten away with holding defensive end Jared Allen multiple times, they might be 2-1 and the VIkes 1-2.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

New England at Oakland (4.5, 53.5)

You basically can’t set a Pats total too high. New England has a 13-1 O/U mark in their last 14 regular-season and playoff games. All of Oakland’s games this season have gone over, too.

Fuhrman said the Patriots are causing him to post some of the highest NFL totals he’s ever posted. Sunday’s game against Buffalo went off at 54 at Caesars.

SMALLEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Tennessee at Cleveland (-1, 37.5)

The Titans just lost wideout Kenny Britt, and running back Chris Johnson looks hesitant after missing most of training camp. He’s not hitting holes with his trademark burst.

Cleveland has scored 17 points in two of its three games.

“I really believe Tennessee played above their heads against Baltimore,” Fuhrman said. “They mustered 17 points against a bad Denver defense on Sunday and 14 points against the Jaguars in the opener.”

Both defenses have played better than expected. The Titans rank first in total defense (261 yards per game), and the Browns ninth (316 ypg).

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 4

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Sunday, October 2

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DETROIT (3 - 0) at DALLAS (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (2 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at ST LOUIS (0 - 3) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 115-148 ATS (-47.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 115-148 ATS (-47.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 59-84 ATS (-33.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 83-115 ATS (-43.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 40-63 ATS (-29.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (2 - 1) at CLEVELAND (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (3 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 101-132 ATS (-44.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against AFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (0 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (0 - 3) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 2) at CHICAGO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 58-34 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (1 - 2) at SEATTLE (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 48-77 ATS (-36.7 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 22-48 ATS (-30.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 19-41 ATS (-26.1 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (2 - 1) at ARIZONA (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (1 - 2) at GREEN BAY (3 - 0) - 10/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) at OAKLAND (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 138-105 ATS (+22.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 3

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 1) - 10/3/2011, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 4

Sunday, 10/2/2011

DETROIT at DALLAS, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 8-2 ATS off division game
DALLAS: 1-6 ATS in October

NEW ORLEANS at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 7-0 Over Away if the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
JACKSONVILLE: 25-12 ATS off BB road games

SAN FRANCISCO at PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 0-6 ATS after covering 2 of L3
PHILADELPHIA: 14-2 Under after allowing 25+ pts BB games

WASHINGTON at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 0-4 ATS in dome games
ST LOUIS: 18-33 ATS after allowing 400+ yds

TENNESSEE at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 1-6 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards
CLEVELAND: 21-7 Under as home favorite of 3 pts or less

BUFFALO at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 30-9 ATS off win by 3 pts or less
CINCINNATI: 0-6 ATS vs. AFC East

MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 23-9 Over Away off BB home games
KANSAS CITY: 25-12 ATS in non-conf home games

CAROLINA at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 0-7 ATS as road dog of 7 pts or less
CHICAGO: 16-4 Under after allowing 375+ yds BB games

PITTSBURGH at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 43-26 ATS in October
HOUSTON: 16-6 Over off BB road games

ATLANTA at SEATTLE, 4:05 PM ET
ATLANTA: 6-0 ATS off ATS loss
SEATTLE: 19-41 ATS off division win

NY GIANTS at ARIZONA, 4:05 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 23-9 ATS off outright division win as dog
ARIZONA: 37-18 ATS at home off BB SU losses

MIAMI at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
MIAMI: 32-13 ATS vs. AFC West
SAN DIEGO: 10-1 Under vs. Miami

DENVER at GREEN BAY, 4:15 PM ET
DENVER: 5-15 ATS vs. NFC North
GREEN BAY: 6-0 ATS off BB road games

NEW ENGLAND at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 17-3 Over in all games
OAKLAND: 12-27 ATS as home dog of 7 pts or less

NY JETS at BALTIMORE, 8:20 PM ET NBC
NY JETS: 11-1 Over in road games
BALTIMORE: 12-25 ATS off 2 game road trip


Monday, 10/3/2011

INDIANAPOLIS at TAMPA BAY, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
INDIANAPOLIS: 39-17 Over Away off SU Loss
TAMPA BAY: 11-3 ATS off home game

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL


Week 4

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Trend Report
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Sunday, October 2

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. DALLAS
Detroit is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 10 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Cincinnati is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. HOUSTON
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Houston is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
Houston is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. KANSAS CITY
Minnesota is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Cleveland is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
Chicago is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
Chicago is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games

4:05 PM
NY GIANTS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Arizona is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE
Atlanta is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games at home
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

4:15 PM
DENVER vs. GREEN BAY
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

4:15 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN DIEGO
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

4:15 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 9 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England

8:20 PM
NY JETS vs. BALTIMORE
NY Jets are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games


Monday, October 3

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TAMPA BAY
Indianapolis is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Indianapolis is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis


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[Udog]

NFL


Week 4

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 4
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We’re through three weeks of the NFL season, and something is clearly not right. Perennial doormats Buffalo and Detroit remain undefeated – straight up, at least. Let’s see how things shape up in Week 4 with the NFL poolies' cheat sheet:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (-4)

Why Steelers cover: They’re the defending AFC champs, and at some point, they should start playing like it, particularly after subpar performance against under-Manninged Colts last week. Pittsburgh has cashed last five after a non-cover and eight of last 11 getting points.

Why Texans cover: Matt Schaub’s prolific offense far better than what Steelers saw last week in 23-20 win at Indianapolis as overwhelming 10.5-point chalk.

Total (45.5): Over 23-6 in Houston’s last 29 vs. winning teams, and Pittsburgh on over runs of 6-1 overall and 4-0 on road.

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (-1)

Why Redskins cover: Should be smarting after blowing chance for road win Monday night in Dallas. 5-1-1 ATS last seven overall.

Why Rams cover: Not much positive going at the betting window for Sam Bradford & Co., but St. Louis has covered last four in this rivalry, and underdog is 8-2 ATS in last 10 Redskins-Rams affairs.

Total (43.5): Washington has gone low in eight of past 10.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9)

Why 49ers cover: After beating Bengals 13-8 in scintillating game at Cincinnati, Niners smartly opt to stay in region this week, so it’ll be a short trip to Philly. Eagles 1-5 ATS last six overall, 0-4 ATS last four at home.

Why Eagles cover: Everybody’s sexy Super Bowl pick needs a performance that proves they’re worth hype, and Niners are right foe at right time. Philly 5-0 ATS last five in this rivalry.

Total (44.5): Under has hit in Eagles’ last four at home, but over is on upticks of 4-1 for Niners, 11-5 for Philly and 6-1 when these two teams get together.

Minnesota Vikings (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs

Why Vikings cover: Not much to support the Men in Purple here, particularly after blowing 20-0 lead at home to Detroit. But K.C. has covered just one of last five overall and one of last five at home.

Why Chiefs cover: Same situation – not for what Kansas City has done, but for what Minnesota hasn’t. Vikes on ATS purges of 4-9-1 overall and 4-9 on highway.

Total (39.5): Under the play in Vikes’ last five roadies.

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals

Why Bills cover: Buffalo can score, and Cincinnati cannot. Bills averaging league-best 37.7 ppg, while Bengals average 19 ppg (25th). Cincy mustered a whopping eight points in home loss to Niners last week. Bills pasted host Cincinnati last November, 49-31.

Why Bengals cover: Bills coming off hugely emotional comeback win over Patriots, so a big letdown would be no surprise. Cincy has cashed five of last six overall and four straight as a pup.

Total (43.5): Over for Bills has hit four in a row overall and four of five on road, and total has gone high last four Buffalo-Cincy meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1)

Why Titans cover: Road team 6-2 ATS last eight Tennessee-Cleveland contests. Browns on ATS dives of 1-5-1 overall and 0-5-1 at home.

Why Browns cover: Titans lost rising star wideout Kenny Britt (knee) for season last week, so QB Matt Hasselbeck throwing to bunch of no-names, while Britt gets more time to devote to legal issues.

Total (38): No dynamic offenses here, to be sure. Under 15-7 Browns’ last 22 as home favorite.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Why Saints cover: Drew Brees and high-octane offense racking up 34.7 ppg, second-best in league. Jaguars are anti-Saints, with low-octane offense averaging paltry 9.7 ppg (31st). Jags 2-9 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams.

Why Jaguars cover: Saints on ATS slides of 1-9 vs. losing teams and 1-5 on highway. Sean Payton’s defense also giving up 29.3 ppg (30th).

Total (46.5): As noted above, New Orleans lights up scoreboard and is on 5-1 over run on road. That said Jags’ pathetic offense has led to 4-1 under mark in last five overall.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-6.5)

Why Panthers cover: Rookie QB Cam Newton less of a head case than veteran Bears QB Jay Cutler. Underdog 3-0-1 ATS last four in this rivalry.

Why Bears cover: Facing team that mustered just eight points through 55 minutes vs. woeful Jacksonville last week.

Total (43.5): Chicago netted just 30 total points in losses to heavyweights New Orleans and Green Bay; finally gets to face a lightweight, so scoring should follow. Bears on over surges of 4-0 laying points and 22-10 as home chalk.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-1)

Why Lions cover: The no-longer-cowardly Lions have won seven in a row SU and gone 6-0-1 ATS, dating to last season. And the push came in their comeback win at Minnesota last week. Cowboys in 1-6 ATS rut as home chalk.

Why Cowboys cover: Detroit’s run bound to end soon, and this is the Lions’ second straight week on the road, while Dallas is home for second straight week.

Total (46): Monday night’s game notwithstanding – Dallas won by scoring SIX field goals – Cowboys Stadium is home to lots of points. Over 9-1 in last 10 at Jerry Jones’ football Taj Mahal.

New York Giants (-1) at Arizona Cardinals

Why Giants cover: Eli Manning appears to have found form, torching vaunted Eagles secondary for four TDs last week. That added to New York’s lore as an ATS road warrior: Giants 28-13 ATS last 41 on highway.

Why Cardinals cover: They get to come home, after criss-crossing country in losses at Washington and woeful Seattle. And Arizona 7-2 ATS last nine as home pup.

Total (44.5): Over 8-2 in Cards’ last 10 at home and 15-6-1 in Giants’ last 21 NFC contests.

Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Why Falcons cover: Matt Schaub & Co., even at 1-2 SU, are playoff-caliber team. Seattle, at 1-2 SU, starts Tarvaris Jackson at QB. That about covers it. Falcons have cashed six straight vs. losing teams.

Why Seahawks cover: Not much good to say, but Seattle did win and cash vs. Arizona last week, moving to 4-1 ATS last five at home.

Total (40.5): Over 10-3-2 in Falcons’ last 15 overall and 11-3 in Seahawks’ last 14 overall.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-7)

Why Dolphins cover: Road is where the cash is – Fish 18-7-1 ATS last 26 roadies and 15-5-1 ATS last 21 as road ‘dog.

Why Chargers cover: At some point – and this looks like a good one – Philip Rivers-led offense should blow up. San Diego second-highest scoring team in league last year (27.6 ppg) but averaging just 21.7 this year. Winless Miami allowing 26 ppg this season and is 0-5-1 ATS last six.

Total (45): These two teams play to the under with regularity. Total has gone low in eight straight Dolphins-Chargers tilts and five in a row at San Diego.

New England Patriots (-4) at Oakland Raiders

Why Patriots cover: By doing what they do, which is score a ton of points – 34.7 per game on average this year, tied for second in league. Tom Brady threw four INTs at Buffalo last week. He might not throw four INTs rest of year. Pats have long been good road bet, at 45-22-3 ATS last 70 on the highway.

Why Raiders cover: They’ll feed ball to Darren McFadden, who torched Jets for 171 yards and two TDs last week. Brady’s offense can’t get going if it’s not on field. Oakland has cashed four in a row, all as underdog.

Total (54.5): If both offenses continue rolling, this could be scoring bonanza. Pats on over streaks of 19-7 overall, 6-1 in roadies and 15-3 within AFC. Over for Raiders on surges of 6-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 5-0 with Oakland a home pup.

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-12.5)

Why Broncos cover: Hard to make compelling case here, but we’ll try. Green Bay 4-12-2 ATS in last 18 as home chalk of more than 10 points.

Why Packers cover: QB Aaron Rodgers will have his way with Broncos unit that’s on road for second straight week. Pack 6-1 ATS last seven overall and 6-1 ATS last seven at Lambeau. Denver one of worst ATS teams in league over past few years and currently on 4-10-1 pointspread dive.

Total (46): Over has been play in six of Pack’s last seven at home and is 9-1 in Broncos’ last 10 vs. winning teams.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

Why Jets cover: They got popped in mouth by Raiders, which might be nice wake-up call in time to face another stout opponent on road. Rex Ryan’s troops 13-6 ATS last 19 getting points.

Why Ravens cover: Because they own Jets, beating them six in a row SU and going 5-1 ATS in that span. Baltimore back home after two-game road swing.

Total (41.5): Both teams purport to be defensive-minded, but total has gone high in four straight for Ravens, and over for Jets on surges of 20-7 overall, 16-4-1 on road and 8-1 with New York catching points.

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)

Why Colts cover: Tampa a double-digit favorite? Really? Bucs haven’t been in that role since 2008, and they’re 5-16 ATS in last 21 at home. Even without Peyton Manning, Indy showed some spark vs. Steelers, nearly knocking off defending AFC champs last week in 23-20 loss catching 10.5 points at home.

Why Buccaneers cover: Got the cash in four of last five overall and are 6-1-1 ATS last eight vs. losing teams.

Total (40.5): Indy has played to over in six of last seven on road and five of last six as a pup.


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[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 4

Atlanta at Seattle
The Falcons look to build on their 10-2 ATS record in their last 12 games as a favorite of 3 1/2; to 10 points. Atlanta is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2

Game 207-208: Detroit at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 137.714; Dallas 135.553
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2); Over

Game 209-210: New Orleans at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 135.382; Jacksonville 130.368
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5; 42
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7); Under

Game 211-212: San Francisco at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 129.360; Philadelphia 139.204
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 10; 41
Vegas Line: Philadelphia 8 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-8 1/2); Under

Game 213-214: Washington at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.345; St. Louis 122.567
Dunkel Line: Washington by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Washington by 1; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1); Over

Game 215-216: Tennessee at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 130.688; Cleveland 133.056
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 35
Vegas Line: Pick; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland; Under

Game 217-218: Buffalo at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 135.796; Cincinnati 130.271
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-3); Over

Game 219-220: Minnesota at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 126.702; Kansas City 126.394
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+2); Over

Game 221-222: Carolina at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 123.941; Chicago 128.371
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Chicago by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+7); Under

Game 223-224: Pittsburgh at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.189; Houston 139.445
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Houston by 4; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4); Under

Game 225-226: Atlanta at Seattle (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 132.889; Seattle 124.393
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 41 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Over

Game 227-228: NY Giants at Arizona (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.443; Arizona 130.309
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+2); Over

Game 229-230: Miami at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 127.148; San Diego 132.268
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5; 42
Vegas Line: San Diego by 8; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+8); Under

Game 231-232: Denver at Green Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.197; Green Bay 136.704
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 12 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+12 1/2); Over

Game 233-234: New England at Oakland (4:15 p.m. EST
Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.498; Oakland 137.083
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New England by 4 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+4 1/2); Under

Game 235-236: NY Jets at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.403; Baltimore 141.950
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3 1/2); Over


MONDAY, OCTOBER 3

Game 237-238: Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 128.500; Tampa Bay 134.900
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 6 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 10; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+10); Under

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's write-Up


Week 4

Lions (3-0) @ Cowboys (2-1)-- Detroit off to 3-0 start for first time since '80- they were down 20-0 at half last week, rallied for first win in Metrodome since '96. Three Dallas games decided by total of 8 points, as Romo has willed team to comeback wins last two weeks- they're 28th in NFL in red zone offense, as new WRs not picking up offense. Cowboys covered once in last seven games as home favorite- they've won five of last six series games, including a 35-19 win here LY- they're 7-1 in last eight pre-bye games (6-2 vs spread). Counting 4-0 end to LY, Lions have now won last seven games that counted- they've lost three of last four visits to Dallas, with losses by 10-13-16 points.

Saints (2-1) @ Jaguars (1-2)-- Offensively-challenged Jags have one TD on 24 drives in last two games, with ten 3/outs and two safeties allowed; tough for rookie QB Gabbert to match points with New Orleans squad that has 11 TDs on 33 drives, with seven on 17 drives that started outside their 20. NO is 3-6 in last nine games as road favorite. Jaguars are 6-26 on 3rd down last two games, which is why they lost field position by 12-11 yards. Jax is 9-17 vs spread in game coming off their last 27 losses- they're 4-6 in last ten as a home underdog. Home side won all four series games, with Saints losing last visit here in '03, scoring bizarre TD on multi-lateral play, then missing tying PAT at gun.

49ers (2-1) @ Eagles (1-2)-- Niners staying in Youngstown for week after 13-8 win at Cincinnati; they're 2-1 despite going 3/out 13 times on 33 drives, with no points on 16 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line- three of their five TDs came on drives of less than 50 yards. Kafka getting start for Philly, which has 2nd-worst red zone defense (6 TDs/FG on 7 drives)- they've allowed nine TDs in last two games, without forcing a FG try. Eagles are 15-10 vs spread in game after last 25 losses; 49ers are 0-5-1 in game following their last six wins. Philly turned ball over three times in each of last two games, negating excellent 20-38 rate on 3rd down conversions. Niners are 5-3-2 as single digit underdog.

Redskins (2-1) @ Rams (0-3)-- No bright spots for Rams yet; they won't be getting great crowd support after dismal effort last week. Short work week plus travel for Redskin squad smarting after tough loss in Dallas Monday; Redskins have a lot of ex-Rams, Atogwe-Carricker-Fletcher and DC Haslett, who was interim coach before StL hired Spagnuolo. St Louis outscored 96-36 in pathetic 0-3 start; they're banged-up and facing Redskin team they beat 30-16 here LY for Bradford's first career win. Hightower should get ball a lot against St Louis defense thats given up 524 rushing yards in three games. Impossible to back Rams until they show some pass defense and a little heart. Washington lost its last five pre-bye games, allowing 29.4 ppg.

Titans (2-1) @ Browns (2-1)— Cleveland defense forced eight FG tries while allowing only two TDs in last two games, but Browns allowing average of 128.7 rushing yards per game; curious to see if Titans can get running game untracked- they’ve run ball for just 51.7 ypg in first three weeks. Browns outsacked opponents 11-3 so far; three of five TDs they’ve allowed came on drives of 46 or less yards. Tennessee outscored first three foes 37-16 in second half; none of its six TD drives are less than 75 yards. Tennessee is 24-16 in last 40 games decided by 7 or less points. Browns won three of last four pre-bye games- they’ve scored seven TDs while trying only four FGs, with four TDs, four FGs in eight red zone trips. Home side won all three Titan games. Cleveland won three of last four series games, after losing first five; Titans won three of four visits here.

Bills (3-0) @ Bengals (1-2)—Underdogs are 14-1-1 vs spread in Bengals’ last 17 home games (one pick ‘em). Huge trap game for Bills, coming off rare win over Patriots, with Vick’s Eagles coming to town next week- they’ve beaten Bengals 10 times in row since losing ’88 playoff game, winning last four visits here, all by 10+ points. Buffalo is 3-0 this year but hardly dominant, trailing 21-3/21-10 at half last two weeks, but they’ve scored 13 TDs on 35 drives, rank 2nd in NFL in red zone offense (11 TDs, 3 FGs on 14 drives) and outscored foes 80-24 in second half. Bengals are 2-21 on 3rd down last two games, getting pair of FGs on two red zone trips in loss to 49ers last week. Cincy lost nine of last 11 games decided by 7 or less points; Bengals covered nine of last 12 games as home underdog.

Vikings (0-3) @ Chiefs (0-3)—Minnesota led its three games 17-7/17-0/20-0 at half, then got outscored 67-6 in second half and loss all three games; Chiefs lost their first two games 41-7/48-3, then got outgained by 123 yards last week- they’ve got 10 turnovers, only three TDs, and have worst red zone defense in league (6.64 ppd), so not lot to choose from here. Expect Peterson to get heavier workload running ball after complaining publicly Monday about his five second half carries in loss to Lions. Chiefs are just 10-36 on 3rd down, part of reason they’ve started 20 drives 80+ yards from end zone. Minnesota is 13-21-2 vs spread in last 36 games where spread was 3 or less points, 9-15-1 in last 25 games vs AFC. Chiefs are 10-20 in last 30 games decided by 7 or less points, 6-12-1 in last 19 games where was spread was 3 or less.

Panthers (1-2) @ Bears (1-2)— Bears are favored for first time this year; over last 4+ years, they’re 7-11-1 as home faves. Newton got first NFL win last week on rainy home field, as Carolina held Jaguars scoreless in second half, after being outscored 44-17 in second half of first two games. Chicago is just 11-40 on 3rd down, has gone 3/out on 19 of 38 drives, big part of why they’ve lost field position battle in all three games, by 2-10-8 yards- they’ve started 17 drives 50-79 yards from goal line, and scored just one TD/two FGs, ranking 31st (0.76 ppd) in drives from that area. Newton showed moxie down stretch in close game last week, leading team to winning score in last 5:00. Teams split six series meetings, with Bears winning 23-6 in Charlotte LY. Carolina coach Rivera is former Bear LB, so this has to be special for him.

Steelers (2-1) @ Texans (3-0)— Houston held Indy/Miami to two TDs on 22 drives in winning first two games, then fell apart late at Superdome, as Saints scored 23 points in last 10:00 of 40-33 win. Half of Texans’ eight TDs are on drives of 42 or less yards- they had one TD/four FGs in loss last week, or else they would’ve hung 40+ on Saints- they miss injured possession WR Walter (out for year). Skeptical of Steelers after dull wins over Seattle/Indy last two weeks; they only have one takeaway (-9) in three games, and only ran ball for 67 yards in narrow win at Indy last week. So far this year, Pitt has 257 rushing yards, 884 thru air- they need better balance. Over last 7+ years, Pittsburgh is 14-6 vs spread as single digit underdog, covering seven of last ten as road dog. Houston is 16-10 in last 26 games as home favorite.

Falcons (1-2) @ Seahawks (1-2)— Over last 3+ years, Falcons are 14-1-1 vs spread in game following loss; this is third road game in four weeks for Atlanta squad that already has two road losses, scoring 12-13 points (one TD on 21 road drives), getting outscored 29-6 in first half of those games; Ryan has been sacked 13 times in three games- they’ve scored only one TD with four FGs in six red zone drives on road. Seattle has three TDs, 13 3/outs on 34 drives, with only one TD, one FG on 17 drives starting 80+ yards from paydirt. Seahawks have been outscored 43-6 in first half; they’re 13-43 on 3rd down, have been outsacked 14-5. Seahawks have only had four drives get inside opponents’ 20-yard line, 2nd-lowest total in NFL (Jaguars). Atlanta is 16-3-1 vs spread in last 20 games as single digit favorite.

Giants (2-1) @ Cardinals (1-2)— Home side won all three Arizona games; Cardinals lost last two weeks by 1-3 points, converting just 6 of 23 on 3rd down. Giants are 26-16 vs spread in last 42 road games, 16-8 in last 24 as road favorite, 25-15 in game following their last 40 wins, 12-10 last 4+ years when spread was 3 or less points. Third road game in four weeks for Giant squad that looked sharp in decisive win at division rival Philly last week; they’ve got nine TDs, one FG try in three games, rank 4th in NFL in red zone offense (5.83). Redbirds rank 29th in red zone offense early this season (3.5). Arizona is 10-5 in last 15 games as home underdog, 4-7 in game following its last 11 losses, 13-10-2 in game following its last 25 wins- they’re 3-2 against the Giants since leaving NFC East.

Dolphins (0-3) @ Chargers (2-1)— San Diego lost seven of last eight games, winning 23-13 in last meeting in ’09; Chargers are playing third straight home game vs winless team, winning first two by 7-3 points- since 2003, they’re 32-21-1 as home favorite, but 0-2 this month. Rivers threw six INTs in first three games, Chargers already have -6 turnover ratio. Miami is -5 in turnovers, with only two takeaways in three games- they have two TDs on 23 drives in last two games, with two TDs, three FGs on seven red zone drives, which is terrible. Since ’05, Dolphins are 4-0 vs spread as a pre-bye underdog- they’ve got to be encouraged by 291 rushing yards in last two games, but losing in last minute in Cleveland had to sting. Chargers are 26-15 vs spread in last 41 games as single digit favorite. Dolphins are 19-13 in last 32 games as an underdog.

Broncos (1-2) @ Packers (3-0)-- Denver's three games have been decided by a total of 8 points, with Broncos losing to Oakland/at Tennessee, both by a FG. Broncos are double digit dog for just third time (1-1) in last decade- they're 10-15 as road underdog since 2007, 15-26 against spread in game following last 41 losses. Green Bay's wins are by 8-7-10 points- since '02, they're 6-3 as double digit favorite. Pack is #5 team in red zone offense (5.46), #2 in red zone defense (3.54); they've scored seven TDs on 13 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line (4.00), by far best figure in league. Broncos are 1-4-1 in Wisconsin, 0-3 in Green Bay, losing 41-6/31-3 in last two visits here. Orton played here when he was a Bear. Last eight years, Broncos are 11-20-1 when facing an NFC team.

Patriots (2-1) @ Raiders (2-1)-- Explosive Oakland (nine TDs/23 drives in last two games) looks to have best team since '02 AFC champs; they're averaging 185 rushing yards/game and would be 3-0 if they hadn't blown its 21-3 halftime lead in Buffalo two weeks ago. Since 2003, Belichick is 19-6 vs spread in game following a loss- Pats scored 38-35-31 points so far this year- they're second in NFL in drives that start 80+ yards from goal line (five TDs, FG on 15 drives). NE had 21-0 lead last week, before turning ball over four times in six drives, including killer INT in red zone that could've given them 28-7 lead just before half. Third road game in four weeks for New England, which is 27-14 in last 41 games as road favorite. Raiders are 7-5 in last dozen games as home underdog. Patriots won three of last four visits here, winning by 7-7-23 points.

Jets (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)-- Jet coach Ryan is former Raven assistant, so lot of similarities here; Gang Green lost six of last seven vs Baltimore, losing three in row here, by 14-10-7 points (average score, 22-12). Gang Green (+3) had seven takeaways in winning first two games, none last week in loss at Oakland, when Raiders ran for 234 yards. Loss of C Magold hurts Jet offensel they became pass-happy last week (339 passing yards, 100 on ground). Ravens are a bully team, with two wins 35-7/37-7. jets won't be bullied here, this figures to be a defensive struggle, will former Raven WR Mason give Rex some insight into Baltimore offense? Average total in last three series games, 22.7. Ravens failed to cover last four pre-bye games when favored- they won defensive struggle vs Jets in LY's eeting, winning 10-9. .

Colts (0-3) @ Buccaneers (2-1)-- First visit here for Colts since wild 38-35 win in '03 Monday nighter, when Bucs led by 21 with 5:00 left. Manning-less Colts fought hard at home last week, but lost 23-20 at home to Steelers on national TV; Collins got concussion-- if he can't play, then incompetent #3 QB Painter gets nod, and this could get ugly. Bucs won last two games, by 4-3 points- they are 0-2 as double digit favorite the last 3+ years. Tampa Bay is 31st in NFL in red zone offense (three TD, five FG on 11 drives); they're 11-8-2 in their last 21 games as home favorites. Indy has only three TDs. 13 3/outs; they trailed 34-0 at half in only other road game, at Houston lost 34-7). Colts' ypa has gone down in every game, from 5.1/4.4/3.5. Harder for Freeney/Mathis to rush the passer on grass, which helps negate the Colts biggest strength.

[Udog]

NFL


Week 4

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Total Bias: NFL Week 4 over/under picks
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Really, Mike Vick? Really?

You’re an NFL quarterback – a position in which you hold the football more than anyone else – and are whining because people are hitting you too hard? Really?

You signed a $100-million contract in the offseason and star for the league’s “Dream Team” and you’re going to be the guy who’s whining about the officials?

Really, Mike Vick? Really? You’re going to be Phil Jackson begging for calls now?

I didn’t want to get into this, but you’re better than this, Mike. All this garbage brings me back to the old days, the days in which you were fodder for one of my favorite SNL skits of all time.

Maybe I’m being a little hard on the guy for the public bitchfest that he put on at the podium after getting banged up in last week’s loss, but enough is enough already. Maybe every call doesn’t go his way, but he’s still a quarterback who thrives because of his threat to run the football – he’s going to get hit and he needs to suck it up.

After all he’s been through all I ever hoped was that he’d shut his mouth, play football and stay out of trouble off the field. Now, two out of three ain’t bad, but he doesn’t exactly have a long – cough – leash to work with here.

And considering the overhaul the Eagles have undergone over the past couple of months, the last thing they need is their polarizing starting quarterback giving the media sound bites.

That leads into one of the main issues I have with this “Dream Team” anyway. On paper, they look great. You can’t argue that Philly’s secondary is terrifying and there are more playmakers on offense than Andy Reid knows what to do with.

But you can’t just jam a ton of high-priced, egomaniac superstars on the same team and expect them to gel right away. Football doesn’t work that way – just ask Dan Snyder. Teams need trust, unity and chemistry.

So far it doesn’t look good. The Eagles’ Week 1 win over a Rams team that only had Steven Jackson in the game for two plays doesn’t look nearly as impressive as it originally did. Then they lost at Atlanta in Week 2 before getting the hell kicked out of them in their own backyard by a banged-up Giants club last week.

It’s a long season and all isn’t lost for this team yet by any means, but I’m not going near another Eagles bet until we have a better idea if they can rebound from this nightmare start.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 41.5)

Another week, another low Baltimore total.

Despite the fact that the Ravens have played over the number in each of their first three games and have a completely different approach on offense than previous years, public perception of the team hasn’t changed yet.

It doesn’t hurt that they’re playing Rex Ryan and the Jets defense this week, either. Thing is, New York is slinging it around a bunch this season too and have played over in two of its last three.

Make no mistake, this one’s going to be a bar fight and there will be some haymakers thrown.

Pick: Over


New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (+4, 54.5)

I’ve been going back and forth on this one all week, but I keep coming back to one thing: these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. New England is giving up about 468 yards of total offense per game and Oakland isn’t far behind at 410.

After last week’s debacle in Buffalo, Tom Brady went out and got himself a spiffy new haircut, so you know he's going to be out for blood. Meanwhile, the Raiders will move the chains on the ground - that's what they do. Outside of that, I’m not sure what we’re in for but it’s going to take at least 30+ points to get out of this matchup with a win and I figure that means we’re in for an over.

Pick: Over


Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1, 39)

Kenny Britt’s injury is really going to hurt the Titans over the next few weeks. Chris Johnson continues to try to play himself into shape and Matt Hasselbeck is still trying to build chemistry with his new club.

I’m a big Nate Washington fan, though he’s obviously no Kenny Britt.

Now that teams don’t have to worry about big No. 18 galloping free on deep routes, they’ll be able to shrink the field and key-in on stopping Johnson and the receivers at the line of scrimmage.

Cleveland’s defense has really come along as well. The Browns rank third against the pass and ninth in total defense heading into this one.

Pick: Under

Last week: 1-2
Season record: 6-3


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[Udog]

NFL


Week 4

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How Week 4's injuries will impact your NFL bets
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Michael Vick and Tony Romo sure can hog headlines, especially when they’re not 100 percent.

But there are many other injury situations you need to know about before placing your wagers. Not just who’s hurt or who’s coming back, but how it affects their teams.

Let’s look at three situations and how they’ll play out Sunday:

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 43.5)

Players usually say they’re going to play no matter how slim the chance. So it was striking to hear RB Frank Gore (ankle) admit he’s not sure he’ll be active Sunday. Even if Gore plays, his role will be limited. Backup Kendall Hunter should see a lot of snaps.

Bad news, right? Wrong. Gore has been killing his team (2.51 yards per carry) trying to play on his bad ankle. Hunter is compact, explosive and a terrific receiver, ala Ray Rice. He led the NFL in preseason rushing (6.6 yards per carry) and blew by Anthony Dixon on the depth chart.

Right now Hunter is the only San Fran back capable of exploiting Philly’s porous run defense, which allows 131 yards a game and 4.9 yards per rush.

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (1, 44.5)

Defensive end Justin Tuck (neck, groin) is in danger of missing the game, but he hasn’t been himself this season due to injuries. The bigger news is that DE Osi Umenyiora, recovered from knee surgery, should make his season debut.

Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell said Umenyiora has “fresh legs” and is “quick off the ball.” The combination of Umenyiora and DE Jason Pierre-Paul (12 combined sacks, hits and pressures, 10 tackles) should frighten QB Kevin Kolb.

He’s being “protected” by Levi Brown and Brandon Keith - two of the 10 worst tackles in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. Brown already has allowed two sacks plus 11 pressures and hits. Larry Fitzgerald better run very short routes.

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-12.5, 46)

The Broncos are expected to get DE Elvis Dumervil (shoulder) back, which gives them a chance of pressuring Aaron Rodgers. But CB Champ Bailey (hamstring) did not go full speed in practice this week.

He said his hamstring is improving but is unsure if he’ll be able to play. If he can’t, Jonathan Wilhite will be Denver’s top corner against the league’s best receiver corps. Ouch. If Bailey tries to play hurt, Rodgers and Greg Jennings will expose him quickly.


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[Udog]

NFL


Week 4

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NFL betting weather report: Week 4
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October brings some chilly weather with it. Your NFL bets could get a taste of fall weather in the Week 5 of the schedule:

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1, 38.5)

The forecast in Cleveland is calling for a 73 percent chance of rain and winds reaching speeds of up to 20 mph, blowing north across Cleveland Browns Stadium. Game-time temperatures will dip into the low 50s.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 43.5)

There’s a 32 percent chance of rain for Lincoln Financial Field Sunday. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 50s.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (+4.5, 38.5)

Rain is expected to hold off until late into the second half in Seattle Sunday. There’s a 14 percent chance of showers.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 42.5)

Baltimore is expected to get showers Sunday night, with the forecast calling for a 24 percent chance of rain and winds blowing west at speeds of up to 10 mph. Temperatures will fall into the high 40s in the second half.


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[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, October 2

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Sunday Night Football: Jets at Ravens
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New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 42.5)

THE STORY: Rex Ryan is happy to tell anyone who will listen that he has the best defense – and best team, for that matter – in the NFL. The brash coach of the New York Jets will be staring at an opposing defense that is equally unwavering in that belief when his team pays a visit to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. The Ravens carry a swagger on defense like few other teams, and much of that is due to Ryan, who was an assistant coach and defensive coordinator with Baltimore for 10 years before taking over the Jets.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

LINE MOVES: The spread has remained steady at 3.5 while the total has moved from 40 to 42.5.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-1): New York suffered its first loss due to its inability to stop the run at Oakland. The Raiders gashed the Jets’ defense for 234 yards on the ground, including 171 by Darren McFadden. It was the highest rushing total allowed by the Jets since Ryan took over prior to the 2009 season. They are ranked 31st in the league against the run. QB Mark Sanchez suffered a broken nose in throwing for a career-high 369 yards, but only 19 of those went to WR Santonio Holmes. Holmes has caught a TD pass in six straight games against Baltimore.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (2-1): Baltimore’s defense almost pitched a shutout last week, and it was complemented by a record-setting offensive performance in a 37-7 dismantling of the St. Louis Rams. Joe Flacco threw for three touchdowns and a career-high 389 yards and the Ravens amassed a franchise-best 553 yards. Rookie WR Torrey Smith caught three TD passes in the first quarter alone as Baltimore bolted to a 27-0 halftime lead. Ray Rice rushed for 81 yards and had 83 yards receiving, giving him 409 yards from scrimmage in the first three games. The Ravens had five sacks and limited the Rams to 244 total yards.

WEATHER: The forecast in Baltimore is calling for a 24 percent chance of showers and winds reaching speeds up of up 10 mph. Game-time temperatures will dip into the high 40s.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Ravens LB Ray Lewis needs a half-sack to reach 40 for his career, which would make him the first player in league history with 40 sacks and 30 interceptions.

2. Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson became the third player in NFL history to score 160 touchdowns, joining Jerry Rice (208) and Emmitt Smith (175).

3. Baltimore has won the last six meetings with the Jets. That includes a 10-9 win last season in which the Ravens held New York to 176 yards of offense – the lowest output under Ryan.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Ravens last four games overall.
* Over is 20-7 in Jets last 27 games overall.

PREDICTION: Ravens 20, Jets 17. The Jets will have some success exploiting Baltimore’s suspect secondary, but Flacco and Rice put up just enough points to prevail.


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[Udog]

NFL


Monday, October 3

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Colts at Buccaneers: What bettors need to know
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Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 40.5)

THE STORY: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t had a home game on Monday Night Football in eight years. The then-reigning Super Bowl champions played in prime time twice that season, and one of the games was among the most memorable in franchise history – for all the wrong reasons. Tampa Bay gets a chance to avenge possibly the most stunning comeback in league annals when they host the winless Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. The good news for Tampa Bay this time around is the absence of four-time NFL MVP Peyton Manning, the primary reason why Indianapolis has a zero in the win column.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE COLTS (0-3): Indianapolis turned in an inspired defensive effort last week, twice erasing deficits before losing to Pittsburgh 23-20 on a last-second field goal. With Manning sidelined for perhaps the season with a neck injury, the Colts’ offense has shown little juice, ranking 14th in the AFC with 46 points. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis sparked a unit that harassed Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger into three turnovers. Curtis Painter may get the start at QB after Kerry Collins was knocked out of the game with concussion-like symptoms. One bright spot was RB Joseph Addai, who had 86 yards on 17 carries.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2-1): Tampa Bay rebounded from a season-opening loss to join New Orleans atop the NFC South. The Buccaneers churned out a 16-13 victory over Atlanta last week in workmanlike fashion, holding the ball nearly 36 minutes while their defense registered four sacks and forced three turnovers. LeGarrette Blount had 81 yards on 24 carries, but the passing game continued to struggle, with QB Josh Freeman throwing for 180 yards and two interceptions. WR Mike Williams is averaging a mere 8.9 yards on 10 catches – down nearly six yards from last season. CB Ronde Barber had an interception and fumble recovery last week.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. In October 2003, the Colts shocked the Bucs with a 38-35 overtime victory, erasing a 35-14 lead with three touchdowns in the last four minutes of regulation. It was the first time in league history a team won after trailing by at least 21 points with four minutes to play.

2. Indianapolis has gone 9-1 in its last 10 games on MNF. Of course, that was with No. 18 under center.

3. With Manning sidelined, Barber is the league’s active leader with 186 consecutive games started. He’s the only player in NFL history with 40 interceptions and 25 sacks.

TRENDS:

The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams with winning records and 7-1 ATS in their last eight Monday games. Of course, those all were with Peyton Manning behind center.

The Bucs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with losing records and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

On the bad side for Buc backers, the club is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games.

The over is 4-1-1 in Tampa Bay's last six home games and 16-7-1 in the club's last 24 games against teams with losing records.

LINE MOVEMENT

Not much to report here. Tampa Bay opened as a 10-point favorite and stayed there pretty much all week. The total has dropped from the opening number of 42. Most shops are now down to 40.5.

PREDICTION: Buccaneers 16, Colts 13. Tampa Bay will ride the running of Blount and its defense to an ugly victory while viewers are left to wonder if “Two and a Half Men” is the story of Indianapolis’ QB situation.


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[Udog]

NFL


Monday, October 3

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Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tale of the tape
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Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 40.5)

Offense

There isn’t any real bright side to Indianapolis’ offense. The Colts rank 29th in total offense, putting up 254 yards per game and average only 164 passing yards without Peyton Manning. Curtis Painter will start this week after coming in for Kerry Collins (concussion) during Week 3’s loss to Pittsburgh. He managed 5.5 yards per passing attempt, completing five of his 11 throws. Veteran running back Joseph Addai is churning out 4.8 yards per carry, but the running game is picking up only 90 yards per contest on the ground.

Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman threw a pair of interceptions last week against Atlanta and now has four picks to go against only two touchdowns through three games. He’s completing 67.9 percent of his passes at 6.4 yards per attempt and spreads the ball around with four receivers pulling in at least 10 catches to date. LaGarrette Blount leads a rushing game that’s also struggling. He puts up four yards per run but the team averages only 92 yards per game.

Edge: Buccaneers

Defense

The Colts give up 28 points per game and are having a tough time getting to the quarterback with only five sacks through their three games. They do force some turnovers with three interceptions and seven forced fumbles, but give up far too many big plays and can’t stop anybody on third down. Indy ranks last in the league allowing its opponents to convert 50 percent of their third down attempts.

Tampa Bay gives up 384 total yards and 20 points per game. The Bucs have only two interceptions but have managed to force five fumbles, recovering three of those, and have six quarterback sacks. Last week they were successful in stacking the box and dropping their defensive backs into coverage. They held Atlanta to just 30 yards and will likely look to do the same to Indianapolis.

Edge: Buccaneers

Special teams

Adam Vinatieri has hit six of seven field goal attempts and kickoff specialist Pat McAffee has nine touchbacks in 13 kicks this season, but that’s where the good news ends about Indy’s special teams. The Colts allow 42 yards per kick return and 23.1 yards per punt return.

Connor Barth has hit all six of his field goals to start the year and Tampa Bay puts up 32 yards per kickoff return and could give Indy some problems. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers allow only 15 yards per kickoff return and only 5.9 yards per punt return.

Edge: Tampa Bay

Word on the street

"I think we did some good things. Obviously, it wasn't enough. We don't care (about) second-place prizes or playing good for a half or three quarters. We didn't play good enough to win." – Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney on last week’s 23-20 loss to Pittsburgh. Indy bettors cashed in with the club set as a bit 10.5-point underdog.

"Two turnovers in the red zone, that's just unacceptable. That's something you really don't anticipate doing or expect to do at anytime. And we talk about it all the time. That's something that's just not in our chemistry as Buccaneers quarterbacks – to throw picks in the red zone like that. It's unacceptable and I have to find a way to get that corrected.'' – Josh Freeman about his turnover problems.

Final score prediction

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, Indianapolis Colts 6


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