The Bum's CFB Week # 5 Best Bets 09/29-10/01

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Nebraska In Big Ten Debut At Wisconsin Badgers

The Nebraska Cornhuskers look to avoid a rude welcome to the Big Ten when they visit the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday night in the crazed town of Madison.

The Don Best college football odds have Wisconsin between nine and 9 ½-point home favorites, with a total of 57 points. ABC will have 8:00 p.m. (ET) telecast from Camp Randall Stadium.

The Cornhuskers (4-0 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) decided to leave the unsettled Big 12 for the safer pastures of the Big Ten and that’s looking like a solid move as they make their conference debut.

Coach Bo Pelini’s squad is ranked eighth in the AP, with the Don Best Linemakers Poll far more skeptical at 15th. A couple of relatively close home wins over Fresno State (42-29) and Washington (51-38) could be a reason why.

The offense definitely hasn’t been a problem at 42.8 PPG (13th nationally). Taylor Martinez is a dual-threat quarterback who has rushed for 421 yards on 6.7 yards per carry. Those numbers are almost identical to running back Rex Burkhead, who is a great complement.

Nebraska doesn’t pass the ball a lot (166.5 YPG, ranked 106th) with the sophomore Martinez having exactly 21 pass attempts in three games and 22 in the other. His accuracy is a problem at just 50.6 percent and he has two interceptions versus just four touchdown throws.

Martinez will have a chance to make plays against this Wisconsin defense that isn’t as good as its 246.5 YPG allowed, seventh nationally. The Badgers will likely put an extra man in the box and force the still-young signal caller into some tight throws, trying to force an interception.

The Nebraska defense was hyped big-time before the season, but hasn’t lived up to its billing (349.8 YPG, ranked 52nd). The expected return of defensive tackle Jared Crick is very important. He missed last week’s 38-14 win at Wyoming with a head injury.

The defense once again had problems last week in allowing 305 total yards, but held Wyoming to just the two touchdowns. Nebraska was 0-3 ATS in the first three games at home, but ‘covered’ on the road as 20 ½-point favorites.

The 52 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 55-point total.

Nebraska went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in road games last year. The ‘over’ was 4-1 in those contests.

The Badgers (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) are getting a lot of respect here as almost double-digit favorites, but that’s what happens when you have a diversified offense scoring 48.5 PPG (sixth nationally) and have an average margin of victory of 40 points.

Critics will point out that Wisconsin hasn’t played a true road game and its toughest opponent was arguably a banged-up Oregon State team that is currently 0-3. The soft schedule hasn’t hurt at the polls, with the team seventh in the AP and fifth at Don Best.

Coach Bret Bielema’s offense is so dangerous because of its balance. Quarterback Russell Wilson has the nation’s second-highest quarterback rating (218.4) and is completing 75.8 percent of his passes. He has 11 TDs versus one pick and the senior looks like he’s been in this system four years instead of just transferring from NC State this summer.

Wilson has a great luxury with two outstanding running backs in James White and Montee Ball. They’ve combined for 663 yards and Nebraska can’t afford to send too many defenders to the line of scrimmage or risk being shredded by Wilson.

Wisconsin is pretty healthy overall, with starting right tackle Josh Oglesby (knee) probable after missing last game. The offensive line is very big and physical per usual and the Cornhuskers have gotten pushed around some this year. That sounds ominous for Saturday.

The Badgers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games and 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

This is the first meeting between the schools since 1974, but there are some ties with current Wisconsin Athletic Director (and former coach) Barry Alvarez having played collegiately at Nebraska. He helped pattern the modern day Badger program around what he learned there.

Weather is expected to be clear, but could dip into the 40s during the game. Still, that’s not too bad for an October night game in Madison.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 8 Nebraska visits No. 7 Wisconsin Saturday

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (4-0)
at WISCONSIN BADGERS (4-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Wisconsin -9, Total: 56.5

No. 7 Wisconsin gets its first real test of 2011 when it hosts No. 8 Nebraska on Saturday night.

The Badgers have been ridiculous, outscoring their four opponents 194 to 34 this year and ranking eighth in total offense (532 YPG) and seventh in total defense (247 YPG). Nebraska has given up more points than Bo Pelini is used to in September (22.0 PPG), but the rushing offense ranks eighth in the land (273 YPG), and the kick-return team leads the nation with a hefty 35.4-yard average. The Huskers are 10-2 SU in their past dozen road games, and 14-6 ATS in their past 20 games outside of Lincoln. The pick here is NEBRASKA to cover, and possibly win outright.

The FoxSheets provide two unbeaten trends to further support picking the Huskers:

Bo Pelini is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf as the coach of NEBRASKA. The average score was NEBRASKA 38.1, OPPONENT 24.1 - (Rating = 3*).

NEBRASKA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEBRASKA 32.4, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 2*).

The Huskers bring a potent ground game led by two players with almost the exact same rushing numbers in QB Taylor Martinez (63 rushes, 421 yds, 7 TD) and RB Rex Burkhead (63 rushes, 420 yds, 7 TD). Martinez has not thrown with great accuracy, completing just over half of his throws (43-for-85) for 647 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT. He has done a nice job spreading the wealth to his receivers, as the unit’s top four gainers all have between 111 and 139 receiving yards. After allowing 67 points in a two-game stretch to Fresno State and Washington, Nebraska settled down last week and held Wyoming to 14 points and 305 total yards on its home turf.

Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson is second in the nation in passing efficiency (218.38) with 11 TD and 1 INT, and RB Montee Ball has 480 total yards and 10 TD in four games. Sophomore James White is also running wild, especially in his past two games where he has 186 yards on just 17 carries (10.9 YPC). One player that has not lived up to high expectations in his career is senior WR Nick Toon, but he’s finishing up his college days in style with 299 receiving yards and five touchdowns in the past three weeks. Most of the Badgers defensive players have been great this year, but sophomore LB Chris Borland has been outstanding with 35 tackles (19 solo), 5.0 TFL and one interception.

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Southwest Classic pits two Top-20 teams

TEXAS A&M AGGIES (2-1)
vs. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (3-1)

Cowboys Stadium - Arlington, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas A&M -3, Total: 62.5

Two teams that could become great rivals in the SEC will square off in the Southwest Classic at Cowboys Stadium as non-conference foes on Saturday, when No. 14 Texas A&M takes on No. 18 Arkansas.

Both teams suffered major setbacks last week as the Aggies blew a 20-3 halftime lead and lost at home to Oklahoma State, while Arkansas got pasted 38-14 in Alabama. A&M allowed OSU’s Brandon Weeden to throw for a school-record 438 yards, and will have its hands full with an excellent Arkansas receiving corps. The Razorbacks have two straight victories over the Aggies, winning easily 47-19 in 2009 and outlasting them 24-17 last year. For the Hogs to win again, they have to nullify Texas A&M’s potent pass rush that leads the nation with 4.7 sacks per game. Razorbacks QB Tyler Wilson has made good decisions all year (7 TD, 3 INT) and will allow his receivers to win this game. The pick here is ARKANSAS.

This FoxSheets trend also favors the Razorbacks:

Bobby Petrino is 14-4 ATS (77.8%, +9.6 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Petrino 34.8, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 1*).

Aggies QB Ryan Tannehill has 297 passing YPG and 6 TD, but threw 3 INT against the Oklahoma State. His talented WR duo of Ryan Swope and Jeff Fuller have combined for 38 catches, 474 yards and four touchdowns. A&M was supposed to have one of the best ground games in the land, but the team ranks 46th in the nation at 171 YPG. Cyrus Gray has 268 yards and four scores, but his 4.2 YPC average is way down from last year’s stellar 5.7 YPC. Christine Michael is gaining 7.1 YPC, but only has 25 carries on the year. Junior LB Sean Porter continues to lead the defense with 3.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL and 23 total tackles in two games.

Arkansas has won 12 straight non-conference games in the regular season. Wilson has played well as Ryan Mallett’s replacement, completing 67% of his passes for 252 YPG. And now he has his full receiving corps healthy with the senior trio of Joe Adams, Greg Childs and Jarius Wright, who combined for 2,260 yards and 17 TD last year. Junior Cobi Hamilton actually leads the team with 271 receiving yards, but only had one catch against Alabama (a 19-yard TD). The running game has been better than expected after the preseason injury to Knile Davis. Ronnie Wingo, Jr. was averaging 75 rushing YPG before the Tide held him to 35 yards on 11 carries last week. Despite forcing only two turnovers (both interceptions) in four games, Arkansas still ranks a respectable 35th in the country in total defense (328 YPG). Junior LB Alonzo Highsmith leads the team with 5.0 TFL and also has 22 total tackles.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 3 Alabama travels to No. 12 Florida

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (4-0)
at FLORIDA GATORS (4-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Alabama -3.5, Total: 44.5

Two of the top dozen teams in the nation clash in a key SEC battle when No. 3 Alabama travels to No. 12 Florida on Saturday night.

Alabama won last year’s meeting 31-6, but was outgained by a Florida squad that committed four turnovers. The Tide rank second in the nation in both scoring defense (8.0 PPG) and total defense (184 YPG), but the Gators are fifth in the nation in yards allowed (232 YPG). The new-look offense under OC Charlie Weis is scoring more than 40 points per game and the Gators actually have more rushing yards (259 YPG) than the Tide (231 YPG) this season. Florida coach Will Muschamp was an assistant under Alabama’s Nick Saban at LSU and with the Miami Dolphins, so he shouldn’t be surprised by what he sees. Although Alabama is 12-2 SU (10-4 ATS) in away games since 2008, this Gators offense will prove too much to handle for the Tide. The pick here is FLORIDA to cover at home.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Gators:

A home team (FLORIDA) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. (84-38 since 1992.) (68.9%, +42.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Alabama looked great in last week’s 38-14 pounding of Arkansas. QB A.J. McCarron went 15-of-20 for 200 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. Trent Richardson rushed for 126 yards (7.4 YPC) and added 85 receiving yards, including a 61-yard TD reception. Richardson is now averaging 141 total YPG, 6.6 yards per carry and has scored nine times. In two career games against Florida, he has carried the ball 21 times for 143 yards (6.8 YPC). Sophomore Eddie Lacy is also running all over opponents this year with 365 rushing yards, 4 TD and a whopping 8.9 yards per carry. The defense was even more impressive last week, limiting a quality Arkansas offense to 226 total yards, including 17 rushing yards on 19 carries. The Razorbacks entered the game averaging 517 yards of offense. The Tide could be short-handed as LB C.J. Mosley suffered an elbow injury last week and will be a game-time decision. Mosley returned an interception for a touchdown against Florida last year.

The Gators ground game has been unreal. They ran for 405 yards against Kentucky, as Jeff Demps gained 157 yards on just 10 carries and Chris Rainey added 105 on 7.0 YPC. Demps now has 320 rushing yards on 9.4 YPC for the season. Rainey leads the team with 411 rushing yards and also leads the Gators in all receiving categories -- 11 catches for 214 yards and two scores. QB John Brantley has played well in the past two weeks, both versus SEC opponents. He is 22-for-37 for 328 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in wins over Tennessee and Kentucky. Brantley will need to show a big improvement from his performance in last year’s loss to Alabama, when he completed just 16-of-31 passes for 202 yards, no touchdowns and two picks.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 10 South Carolina seeks 5-0 record hosting Auburn

AUBURN TIGERS (3-1)
at SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (4-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: South Carolina -9.5, Total: 59.5

Tenth-ranked South Carolina tries to run over defending national champion Auburn when the Tigers visit Columbia on Saturday. The Gamecocks haven’t beaten Auburn since 1933, a stretch of six meetings.

Auburn has surrendered 227 rushing YPG (ninth-most in FBS), while Gamecocks RB Marcus Lattimore is third in the nation with 153 rushing YPG. Auburn scored 91 points in two wins over South Carolina last year, including 56 in the SEC Championship game. But this year is a different story, as the Tigers rank 78th in total offense (374 YPG). Last week, they only scored two offensive touchdowns versus a weak Florida Atlantic defense. Gamecocks embattled QB Stephen Garcia threw 4 INT last week, but will still start on Saturday. Garcia threw for 405 yards and 5 TD in the pair of losses to Auburn last year, and the staff reportedly has all the confidence in the world in his ability to keep his team unbeaten. The Gamecocks are 16-2 SU in their past 18 home games, and they should have no trouble winning by double-digits on Saturday. The pick here is SOUTH CAROLINA.

This FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the Gamecocks:

Steve Spurrier is 13-3 ATS (81.3%, +9.7 Units) after allowing 75 or less passing yards in their last game in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Spurrier 35.1, OPPONENT 20.8 - (Rating = 1*).

Auburn has beaten South Carolina six straight times (4-2 ATS), but the Tigers were favored in all six of those wins. Since 2008, Auburn is 2-6 ATS as a road underdog. QB Barrett Trotter has had some huge shoes to fill as Cam Newton’s replacement, but Trotter has been pretty consistent, completing between 12 and 17 passes every game in 23 to 28 attempts. His completion rate is 62% and he has 783 yards, 8 TD and 3 INT. RB Michael Dyer ran for 301 yards (8.9 YPC) and four touchdowns in consecutive games against Mississippi State and Clemson, but he was held to 68 yards (4.9 YPC) and no scores against FAU. Dyer had 164 yards on 37 carries (4.4 YPG) in the pair of wins over the ‘Cocks last year. In addition to the porous run defense, the Tigers rank 90th against the pass (251 YPG) and 110th in total defense (478 YPG). Part of this is because they only have three total sacks in four games.

Garcia is getting most of the heat for the South Carolina’s sagging offense, and rightfully so with 3 TD and 7 INT (tied for most in nation). But WR Alshon Jeffery, who caught 88 passes for 1,517 yards and 9 TD last year, only has four catches for 69 yards in the past two games against Navy and Vanderbilt. However, this Auburn defense was unable to stop him last year, as Jeffery caught 12 passes for 228 yards and three scores in the two meetings. Freshman WR Damiere Byrd, who will make his collegiate debut Sunday after serving an NCAA suspension, gives Garcia another weapon. With all the stars on the Gamecocks offense, the defense is sometimes overlooked. However, South Carolina ranks 13th in passing defense (161 YPG) and 23rd in total defense (298 YPG) this year. DE Melvin Ingram already has three return touchdowns and freshman DL Jadeveon Clowney has been as good as advertised with four sacks, three forced fumbles and 16 tackles in his first four collegiate games.

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Utah St. at BYU

September 29, 2011

For the second time in as many weeks, Friday Night Lights takes us back to Provo and the home of the Brigham Young Cougars, who rallied to capture a 24-17 win over Central Florida as 1 ½-point home favorites last Friday.

This time around, the visitor will be Utah State, a program that has lost 15 consecutive road games at BYU.

Most books have installed BYU (2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) as a 7 ½-point favorite with a total of 51. Bettors can take Utah St. (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) to win outright for a plus-260 return (risk $100 to win $260).

Bronco Mendenhall’s team was coming off an embarrassing 54-10 home loss to arch-rival Utah when UCF came calling last week. The Knights drew first blood with a field goal early in the first quarter and had a 10-3 advantage at intermission.

Central Florida QB Jeff Godfrey ran for his second touchdown midway through the third quarter to put his team up by a 17-10 count. But the Cougars drew even again on the ensuing kickoff when Cody Hoffman found a seam and went 93 yards to paydirt.

BYU took the lead for the first time at the 10:29 mark of the final stanza thanks to a six-yard touchdown run by Bryan Kariya, who finished with 52 rushing yards on 14 carries. UCF was threatening for a tying score in the waning moments, but Godfrey made several terrible decisions that ruined the last-gasp drive.

BYU was out-yarded 399-260 by UCF, but the Cougars created three turnovers (two fumbles, one interception) and only committed one and that was the difference.

Utah St. nearly pulled a stunning upset in Week 1 when it faced the defending national champions on The Plains. The Aggies took a commanding 38-28 lead with a little more than three minutes remaining, but Auburn responded with a TD drive that cut the deficit to three at the two-minute mark.

From there, AU recovered an onside kick and marched down into the red zone. On a second-and-goal play with 50 ticks left, Michael Dyer plunged one yard to the goal line and the play was ruled a touchdown. However, video replays seemed to clearly indicate that Dyer came up short of the plane. Nevertheless, the call was not overturned and Auburn pulled out a fortunate 42-38 win.

But the Aggies easily took the cash as 23-point road underdogs.

Since then, Utah St. has demolished Weber St. 54-17 as a 14-point home ‘chalk.’ After an open date, Utah St. dropped a 35-34 double-overtime decision to Colorado St. last Saturday as a 13-point home favorite.

Andersen’s team had a 21-13 lead until the Rams scored a TD and converted a two-point conversion with 42 seconds remaining in regulation. After both teams matched TDs in the first extra session, Colorado St. went ahead 35-28 by scoring on its possession to start the second OT.

Utah St. answered on Robert Turbin’s fourth rushing touchdown of the night from 25 yards out. Sensing that his defense was tiring, Andersen opted to go for two and the win, but the conversion attempt came up short and CSU escaped Logan with an upset win.

Turbin rushed for 115 yards and four scores against the Rams. For the season, Turbin has rushed 64 times for 365 yards and eight TDs, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.

True freshman QB Chuckie Keeton has played well from the get-go. In his first start at Auburn, Keeton ran for a pair of TDs and threw for 213 yards without an interception. In fact, Keeton has yet to be picked off while completing 40-of-60 passes for two touchdowns.

As for BYU sophomore QB Jake Heaps, he has a mediocre 3/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Heaps has 855 passing yards, completing 55 percent of his throws to date.

Utah St. has been an incredibly lucrative team to support as a road underdog since Gary Andersen took over in 2008. The Aggies have cashed tickets at a 9-2 ATS clip in such spots since 2009. If we go all the way back to 2007, Utah St. is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games as a road ‘dog.

As a home favorite on Mendenhall’s watch, BYU owns a 17-13 spread record.

The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight head-to-head meetings between these in-state rivals. As for this year, the ‘over’ has hit in all three Utah St. games, while the ‘under’ is 3-1 for BYU.

Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Clemson owns a 4-1 spread record as a home underdog during Dabo Swinney’s four-year tenure.

--Here’s the stat line on Mike Locksley’s tenure as head coach at New Mexico: 2-26 overall record, one lawsuit for sex and age discrimination, one fight with an assistant coach who went on ESPN detailing Locksley’s violent temper tantrum, one recruit arrested in Locksley’s car for DUI while visiting campus and, at last, one pink slip before the end of September in his third season. What a legacy Locksley leaves behind in Albuquerque!

--Hot Seats:
1-Houston Nutt (Ole Miss)
2-Rick Neuheisel (UCLA)
3-Mark Richt (Georgia)
4-Neil Callaway (UAB)
5-Mike Stoops (Arizona)

--Florida hasn’t been a home underdog since the Ron Zook Era. To be exact, the Gators haven’t been catching points in Gainesville since 2003 when referee Jack Childress led FSU to a 38-34 win as a one-point favorite in The Swamp Swindle. UF is a four-point home ‘dog vs. Alabama on Saturday night.

--Alabama hasn’t won at The Swamp since 1999 when Shaun Alexander’s 25-yard TD run in overtime lifted the Tide to victory. This is an extremely misleading mention because ‘Bama has only played at UF once since ’99.

--This, however, is not a misleading factoid: Mississippi St. hasn’t prevailed between the hedges in Athens since 1956. The Bulldogs are seven-point ‘dogs Saturday at UGA.

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves

September 30, 2011

I called MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood Thursday evening to discuss his big games for Saturday and he begins by talking about the I-25 rivalry and the Maloof Trophy. I had no idea what he was talking about and asked him to come again.
“What, you don’t want to talk about the big game between my alma matter, New Mexico State, and New Mexico,” Rood said with a chuckle. “We‘ve seen New Mexico (+1) money come in as people think the new coach and attitude of the team will be changed. Anything has to be an improvement from a coach who guided the Lobos to a 2-26 record during his regime.”

The big games I was looking for information on were Alabama visiting the swamp in Florida and Nebraska traveling to Wisconsin for an intriguing Big 10 battle. The pair not only has national championship implications, but also major public appeal as they'll be the two primetime games featured on ABC and CBS.

We get to see Nebraska in their first Big 10 contest on the road playing in a sea of red, while also seeing if Florida is truly as good as they have looked so far. The Gators are 3-0-1 against the spread going against an Alabama squad that has dominated every team placed in front of them, which is why they are a strong 3 ½-point favorite on the road this week.

“They (sharp money) snapped up the 4 ½ right away on Florida and pushed us down, but all the small money has been on Alabama,” said Rood. “We’re already pretty long on parlay money with Alabama and it’s only going to multiply on game day“

“Our day is ultimately going to come down to the results of the two big public sides of Alabama and Stanford and you’d think one of these weeks we’d find some luck on these late games,” Rood said half-jokingly. “It seems like we lose every big college football game played on national television. From 4:00 p.m. (PT) on, we have been getting killed.”

Stanford has been a public favorite each week and has covered all three of its games. They'll try to knock off UCLA this week as a 21-point favorite Saturday night.

Nebraska has only covered one of its four games while Wisconsin has gone 3-1 ATS, but a lot of bettors have the feeling that Wisconsin laying 9 ½-points might be cheap.

“We opened the Badgers minus-9 ½ and they (sharp money) bet it to 10, but then we immediately got Huskers money at 10,” said Rood. “We’ve been kind of bouncing around back and forth and are currently at 10. This is one of those night games we have had trouble with, but we’ve had balanced action, so we’re just hoping it doesn’t land 10.”

The home field advantage plays a key role in why the spread is so highly with two highly ranked teams against each other, but Rood thinks Nebraska may have some trouble.

“The speed of the Wisconsin defense should be able to keep Taylor Martinez from hitting the edges strong. I think we’ll see Nebraska having some difficulties in this one.”

Line Moves of the Week:

Illinois opened as a 6 ½-point home favorites at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book and has been pushed all the way to -9 ½ against Northwestern. Most other books around town have Illinois -10.

Boston College opened as a 1 ½-point favorite at the Wynn for their home game against Wake Forest. The line went the other way with Wake being the favorite and since reaching 2 ½ points. The game is now a PICK giving the Wynn crew a pat on the back for having the right number according to the Sharps.

Rutgers opened -1 at the Wynn for its road game at Syracuse, but action quickly moved the Orangemen to 3-point favorites. The line has since dropped to Syracuse -1 ½.

The Wynn opened Georgia Tech surprisingly low at -6 and it rose to -11 for its road game at N.C. State. The Hilton currently has Tech a 10-point favorite.

One of the Wynn’s biggest disparities from their opener to where it’s currently at now is Connecticut, who opened as an 8-point home favorite against Western Michigan. The Huskies are only -2 ½ now.

The Wynn opened Hawaii as a 2 ½-point favorite at Louisiana Tech and now Tech is showing up -4 ½ at the Hilton.

Middle Tennessee State had a great game last week at Troy and many may have inflated its numbers too high for its home game against Memphis. The Wynn opened MTSU -18 ½, what appears to be a proper number, but it’s now showing -23 ½ at the Hilton after they opened their numbers on Monday at -21.

The Wynn opens their numbers every Sunday at 3:00 p.m. PT, the first betting shop in the world. They have a lot of different opinions from what the market prices end up being. After studying their ratings the first few weeks, they appear to be right on the money with the bulk of the moves as they have come back to their original number.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 10 Report - Week 5

Wisconsin (-9.5) vs. Nebraska - 8:00 PM ET, ABC

UW: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS - Last week: vs. South Dakota St, W 59-10
UN: 4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS - Last week: at Wyoming, W 38-14

This is quite possibly the game of the year (and possibly a preview of the Big Ten Championship) for the Big Ten as two Top-10 teams matchup at Camp Randall. ESPN's College Gameday crew will be on hand as Nebraska plays its very first conference game as a member of the Big Ten. Wisconsin opened at -7, but that number quickly rose and now sits at -9.5.

Wisconsin has been the league's only consistently dominant team through four weeks, albeit against a fairly weak schedule. Wisconsin ranks 8th in total offense and 6th in scoring offense with QB Wilson completing 75.8% with 11 touchdowns and RB's White and Ball with 663 rush yards and 12 touchdowns combined. Defensively the Badgers are allowing just 247 yards per game (8th nationally) and 8.5 points per game (3rd). The competition level goes up significantly this week at home, where Wisconsin is 45-4 since the start at the 2004 season and 34-3 under coach Bielema. Those three teams to beat Wisconsin at home all went on to play in BCS Bowls.

The Huskers have been quite one-dimensional on offense thus far. QB Martinez and RB Burkhead have combined for 841 rush yards (7.6 YPC) and 14 touchdowns. But Martinez is completing just 50% of his passes with four touchdowns and two interceptions. The Huskers haven't needed an effective passing attack yet as their rushing game has been sufficient through four games. Nebraska's defense hasn't been as dominant as it was supposed to be this season as it ranks 52nd in total defense and 48th in scoring defense. However, the Huskers haven't been at full strength yet as three preseason All-American candidates - DT Crick, LB David, and CB Dennard - will all play together Saturday for the first time this season.

Something to consider: Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall - a run started with a 13-point win over then-No. 1 Ohio State at home last October.

Ohio State (-3) vs. Michigan State - 3:30 PM ET, ABC regional

OSU: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Colorado, W 37-17
MSU: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Central Michigan, W 45-7

The fact that both of these squads suffered non-conference losses makes this game more intriguing. The winner will get off to a strong start in conference play while the loser has more questions to answer. The Spartans have lost seven straight to the Buckeyes and haven't won in Columbus since 1998. Only one meeting has been decided by single digits and the average win margin for OSU is 18 points per game. OSU is a much different team this time around, yet is favored by 3 points at home. MSU has yet to register a quality win, but their defense has looked dominant. Not only are the Spartans limiting yards (1st in total defense) and points (9th in scoring defense), but they're making big plays, as they showed last week by intercepting CMU's QB four times. The Spartans are averaging 39 points per game at home, but scored just 13 points in their only road game so far (a 18-point loss to Notre Dame).

OSU ranks 91st in total offense and 69th in scoring offense. Freshman QB Braxton Miller got the first start of his young career last weekend. He completed just 5-of-13 passes for 83 yards, but had two touchdowns while also rushing for 83 yards. How he reacts against a Big Ten opponent will determine how well the Buckeyes perform on Saturday. OSU plays Michigan State, Nebraska and Illinois in its next three games, so a loss could send the Buckeyes reeling. Expect a big effort at home from OSU.

Something to consider: Michigan State is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog. Ohio State is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games (16-5 ATS as a home favorite).

Illinois (-8) vs. Northwestern - 12:00 PM, ESPN2

ILL: 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Western Michigan, W 23-20
NU: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS - Last week: BYE

Last year this game was played at Wrigley Field in November. Northwestern was off of a huge win vs. Iowa and was playing its first game without QB Persa (injured the previous week). Illinois netted 519 rush yards and won by 21 points. Prior to that game NU had won six of the previous eight meetings. Illinois opens as an 8.5 point favorite for this year's matchup.

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Northwestern QB Persa should finally make his return for the Land of Lincoln Trophy showdown. How Persa performs in his first action since last November remains to be seen, but his presence alone should be a rousing factor for the Wildcats. Northwestern figures to be super motivated for this game: with Persa back, off of a loss with an extra week to prepare, and the fact that this is a rivalry game with a chance to knock Illinois off its pedestal.

Illinois had a flat performance against Western Michigan last week - understandable after a huge win against Arizona State the week prior - but found a way to remain unbeaten and at 4-0 for the first time since 1951 with a three-point victory. Illinois lost one 1st and one 2nd round talent from its 2010 defense. Still, the Illini rank 6th in rush yards allowed, 12th in total yards, and 13th in scoring defense.

Something to consider: Northwestern is just 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Big Ten games, but is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog. The Wildcats have also covered eight of the last 11 meetings against Illinois.

Michigan (-20) vs. Minnesota - 12:00 PM ET, Big Ten Network

Mich: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS - Last week: vs. San Diego State, W 28-7
Minn: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. North Dakota St, L 24-37

Minnesota is off of a terrible loss to North Dakota State and now has to play a team that has beaten it 19 of the previous 20 meetings (since 1987). Michigan has outscored Minnesota by 22 points per game in that 20 game span and only four games were decided by less than 10 points. Michigan was favored by 20+ points in seven of those games and was 6-1 ATS. Again the Wolverines are favored by 20 points heading into this weekend.

Minnesota fell to an FCS opponent for the second consecutive year and the third time in the past five seasons with its 13-point loss to North Dakota State last week. The Gophers now have a quarterback dilemma on their hands with Marqueis Gray and Max Shortell. Gray (50.6% with 3 TD & 3 INT) remains the starter, but freshman Shortell will see time.

The Wolverines are 4-0 for the third consecutive year after a 21-point win over head coach Brady Hoke's former team - San Diego State. QB Robinson again had a big game on the ground with 200 rush yards and three touchdowns, but his deficiencies in the passing game could come back to haunt UM. The defense continues to make strides, as it has now forced 17 turnovers in four games and is allowing just 13 PPG (11th nationally).

Something to consider: Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog. Michigan is just 3-23 ATS in its last 26 conference games.

Indiana (+16.5) vs. Penn State - 12:00 PM ET, ESPNU

IU: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: at North Texas, L 21-24
PSU: 3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS - Last week: vs. Eastern Michigan, W 34-6

Indiana fell behind 24-0 to winless North Texas last week before mounting a rally in the final minutes. UNT ranks at or near the bottom of every major offensive and defensive category and Indiana couldn't get a W. First-year coach Kevin Wilson still has a lot of questions heading into Big Ten play, most notably at quarterback. Wright-Baker has started every game thus far, but freshman Kiel remains neck-and-neck.

The Nittany Lions rank 8th nationally in total defense, 7th in passing defense, and 10th in scoring defense. However, this unit took a big hit last week as defensive captain and team leader LB Mauti tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season.

The Nittany Lions had their best offensive game of the season last week against Eastern Michigan when they tallied 468 yards and 34 points. Co-starting QB's McGloin and Bolden combined to complete 21-of-30 passes for 335 yards and four scores. Both could see some success against this Hoosier defense that allowed passing touchdowns of 17, 32, and 83 yards to North Texas last week.

Something to consider: Penn State has never lost to the Hoosiers with a 14-0 all-time record (average margin of victory 17 PPG). PSU is 6-0-1 ATS its last seven games as a double digit road favorite.

Purdue (+12) vs. Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

PU: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS - Last week: BYE
ND: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS - Last week: at Pittsburgh, W 15-12

The Boilers beat up on FCS Southeast Missouri State two weeks ago before spending the bye week preparing for Notre Dame. QB Marve returned after an ACL injury last season delayed his comeback. He completed 7-of-8 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown while splitting time with TerBush. TerBush will start against the Irish, but both will get playing time.

Purdue really needed that bye week to prepare for this, as QB Marve put it, "program defining game." Notre Dame is more battle-tested, having played three teams in the Top-25 so far. But this Irish offense has 15 turnovers through four games, and that most certainly cost them two wins. Purdue will need to convert on any forced turnovers to upset ND.

Something to consider: Purdue has lost three straight and is just 5-20 against the Irish since 1986. The Boilers have won four out of its last five games as a double digit home underdog and is 9-4-1 ATS its last 14 as a home 'dog.

Iowa - BYE

3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. UL Monroe, W 45-17

The Hawkeyes enter the bye week after an easy win against Louisiana-Monroe. QB Vandenberg has caught fire, tallying 1,095 pass yards with 10 TDs and only one INT through four games. Iowa will spend the off week preparing for a date with Penn State in Happy Valley

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, September 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Utah State - 8:00 PM ET Utah State +7.5 500

Brigham Young - Under 50.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Primetime Showdowns

September 30, 2011


Florida (4-0 straight up, 3-0-1 against the spread) will be looking to avenge back-to-back losses to Alabama in blowout fashion when it hosts the Crimson Tide at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS at The Swamp on Saturday.

Most betting shops opened Alabama (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) as a 4 ½-point favorite this past Sunday. The number was down to four by Monday afternoon, where it has stayed for most of the week. A lot of offshores went to 3 ½ on Wednesday, but most Vegas shops stayed at four, where the number was early Friday night.

The total opened at 44 ½ at most books. This number has wavered in the 44-45 range for most of the week, but the Las Vegas Hilton adjusted to 43 late Friday afternoon.

Gamblers can UF to win outright for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160).

Will Muschamp’s team has won by double-digit margins in its first four games, beating FAU (41-3), UAB (39-0), Tennessee (36-26) and Kentucky (48-10). The only non-cover came in the win over the Vols as 10-point favorites when they got a late score for the backdoor push.

UF made quick work of UK in Lexington last week, racing out to a 28-3 lead early in the second quarter. The Gators stayed comfortably ahead of the 17 ½-point number the rest of the way.

Jeff Demps stole the show, rushing 10 times for 157 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including an 84-yard scamper early in the third quarter. Chris Rainey added 105 rushing yards on 15 carries.

Nick Saban’s team also covered easily as a double-digit favorite in last week’s 38-14 win over Arkansas as an 11 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ A.J. McCarron completed 15-of-20 passes for 200 yards and two TDs without an interception. Junior RB Trent Richardson rushed for 126 yards on 17 carries.

With a 10-7 lead late in the second quarter, ‘Bama got a big play from its defense when DeQuan Menzie intercepted a Tyler Wilson pass and returned it 25 yards for a TD. The Tide went ahead 24-7 early in the third quarter thanks to an 83-yard punt return for a score by Marquis Maze.

When these teams met in Tuscaloosa last year, Alabama cruised to a 31-6 win as an 8 ½-point home favorite. The previous meeting in 2009 came between a pair of unbeaten teams at the Ga. Dome for the SEC Championship. In that affair, the Tide embarrassed the Gators 32-13 as a five-point underdog.

Alabama has a 7-1-1 spread record in its last nine games against UF. It hasn’t played in Gainesville since 2006 when a Reggie Nelson pick-six lifted the Gators to a 28-13 win. However, ‘Bama took the cash as a 16-point underdog.

’Bama’s last win at The Swamp came in 1999 when Shaun Alexander’s 25-yard TD run in overtime lifted his team to a 40-39 victory as a live 16-point ‘dog.

The ‘over’ is 2-2 for both teams this year.

In the same 8:00 p.m. Eastern time slot, Wisconsin will take on Nebraska at Camp Randall on ABC. This will be the Cornhuskers’ debut in the Big Ten.

Most books, as of early Friday night, had Wisconsin (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) installed as a 10-point home ‘chalk.’ The total was in the 56-57 range, while Bo Pelini’s team was plus-300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300).

Brett Bielema’s squad is averaging 48.5 points per game and is limiting opponents to just 8.5 PPG. However, the Badgers haven’t played anything but cupcake foes to date.

Nebraska (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of foes, either. The ‘Huskers struggled to win outright as double-digit favorites in wins over Fresno St. and Washington. They finally hooked up their backers in last week’s 38-14 win at Wyoming as 21-point road favorites.

As always, Wisconsin has one of the nation’s biggest and baddest offensive lines. This group is the catalyst for a power running game with two outstanding backs, Montee Ball and James White, who both rushed for more than 1,000 yards in 2010.

With a powerful running game, QB Russell Wilson is even more dangerous in play-action situations. Wilson, the transfer from N.C. St. has been nothing short of sensational, connecting on better than 75-percent of his passes with an 11/1 TD-INT ratio.

Nebraska has been known for defense on Pelini’s watch, but this year’s unit has given up 29 points to Fresno and 38 to Washington.

As for the Huskers’ offense, it’s entirely too one-dimensional. QB Taylor Martinez is completing just 50.6 percent of his throws, although we should point out his 4/2 TD-INT ratio. And Martinez can certainly get it done on the ground, as evidenced by his 421 rushing yards and seven TDs.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--According to Alabama beat writer Cecil Hurt of the Tuscaloosa News, ‘Bama sophomore LB C.J. Mosley is ‘out’ at UF with an elbow injury. Hurt reported that during a guest appearance Friday on The Paul Finebaum Show. For what it’s worth, Hurt predicted a 17-13 win by Alabama.

--Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games, 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games regardless of the venue.

--UF’s John Brantley and UA’s A.J. McCarron both have 4/2 TD-INT ratios.

--Bettors should continue to check the status of rampant injuries to North Carolina State’s personnel. The Wolfpack were missing six of its top players in last week’s blowout loss at Cincy. They are hoping to get two of those six players back Saturday vs. unbeaten Ga. Tech.

--Nebraska owns a 5-2 spread record in seven games as an underdog on Pelini’s watch. The Cornhuskers have won two of those games outright.

--Wisconsin is 16-13 ATS as a home favorite during Bielema’s tenure.

--By covering in Thursday’s 49-42 home loss to Houston on Thursday, UTEP now owns a 10-4 spread record in 14 games as a home underdog during Mike Price’s eight-year tenure.

--Clemson is 4-1 ATS in five games as a road underdog during Dabo Swinney’s four-year tenure.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 3 Alabama travels to No. 12 Florida

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (4-0)
at FLORIDA GATORS (4-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Alabama -4, Total: 44.5

Two of the top dozen teams in the nation clash in a key SEC battle when No. 3 Alabama travels to No. 12 Florida on Saturday night.

Alabama won last year’s meeting 31-6, but was outgained by a Florida squad that committed four turnovers. The Tide rank second in the nation in both scoring defense (8.0 PPG) and total defense (184 YPG), but the Gators are fifth in the nation in yards allowed (232 YPG). The new-look offense under OC Charlie Weis is scoring more than 40 points per game and the Gators actually have more rushing yards (259 YPG) than the Tide (231 YPG) this season. Florida coach Will Muschamp was an assistant under Alabama’s Nick Saban at LSU and with the Miami Dolphins, so he shouldn’t be surprised by what he sees. Although Alabama is 12-2 SU (10-4 ATS) in away games since 2008, this Gators offense will prove too much to handle for the Tide. The pick here is FLORIDA to cover at home.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Gators:

A home team (FLORIDA) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. (84-38 since 1992.) (68.9%, +42.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Alabama looked great in last week’s 38-14 pounding of Arkansas. QB A.J. McCarron went 15-of-20 for 200 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. Trent Richardson rushed for 126 yards (7.4 YPC) and added 85 receiving yards, including a 61-yard TD reception. Richardson is now averaging 141 total YPG, 6.6 yards per carry and has scored nine times. In two career games against Florida, he has carried the ball 21 times for 143 yards (6.8 YPC). Sophomore Eddie Lacy is also running all over opponents this year with 365 rushing yards, 4 TD and a whopping 8.9 yards per carry. The defense was even more impressive last week, limiting a quality Arkansas offense to 226 total yards, including 17 rushing yards on 19 carries. The Razorbacks entered the game averaging 517 yards of offense. The Tide could be short-handed as LB C.J. Mosley suffered an elbow injury last week and will be a game-time decision. Mosley returned an interception for a touchdown against Florida last year.

The Gators ground game has been unreal. They ran for 405 yards against Kentucky, as Jeff Demps gained 157 yards on just 10 carries and Chris Rainey added 105 on 7.0 YPC. Demps now has 320 rushing yards on 9.4 YPC for the season. Rainey leads the team with 411 rushing yards and also leads the Gators in all receiving categories -- 11 catches for 214 yards and two scores. QB John Brantley has played well in the past two weeks, both versus SEC opponents. He is 22-for-37 for 328 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in wins over Tennessee and Kentucky. Brantley will need to show a big improvement from his performance in last year’s loss to Alabama, when he completed just 16-of-31 passes for 202 yards, no touchdowns and two picks.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 8 Nebraska visits No. 7 Wisconsin Saturday

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (4-0)
at WISCONSIN BADGERS (4-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Wisconsin -10, Total: 57

No. 7 Wisconsin gets its first real test of 2011 when it hosts No. 8 Nebraska on Saturday night.

The Badgers have been ridiculous, outscoring their four opponents 194 to 34 this year and ranking eighth in total offense (532 YPG) and seventh in total defense (247 YPG). Nebraska has given up more points than Bo Pelini is used to in September (22.0 PPG), but the rushing offense ranks eighth in the land (273 YPG), and the kick-return team leads the nation with a hefty 35.4-yard average. The Huskers are 10-2 SU in their past dozen road games, and 14-6 ATS in their past 20 games outside of Lincoln. The pick here is NEBRASKA to cover, and possibly win outright.

The FoxSheets provide two unbeaten trends to further support picking the Huskers:

Bo Pelini is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf as the coach of NEBRASKA. The average score was NEBRASKA 38.1, OPPONENT 24.1 - (Rating = 3*).

NEBRASKA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEBRASKA 32.4, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 2*).

The Huskers bring a potent ground game led by two players with almost the exact same rushing numbers in QB Taylor Martinez (63 rushes, 421 yds, 7 TD) and RB Rex Burkhead (63 rushes, 420 yds, 7 TD). Martinez has not thrown with great accuracy, completing just over half of his throws (43-for-85) for 647 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT. He has done a nice job spreading the wealth to his receivers, as the unit’s top four gainers all have between 111 and 139 receiving yards. After allowing 67 points in a two-game stretch to Fresno State and Washington, Nebraska settled down last week and held Wyoming to 14 points and 305 total yards on its home turf.

Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson is second in the nation in passing efficiency (218.38) with 11 TD and 1 INT, and RB Montee Ball has 480 total yards and 10 TD in four games. Sophomore James White is also running wild, especially in his past two games where he has 186 yards on just 17 carries (10.9 YPC). One player that has not lived up to high expectations in his career is senior WR Nick Toon, but he’s finishing up his college days in style with 299 receiving yards and five touchdowns in the past three weeks. Most of the Badgers defensive players have been great this year, but sophomore LB Chris Borland has been outstanding with 35 tackles (19 solo), 5.0 TFL and one interception.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 11 Va. Tech hosts No. 13 Clemson

CLEMSON TIGERS (4-0)
at VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (4-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 6:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Virginia Tech -7, Total: 50.5

Tajh Boyd and the No. 13 Clemson offense looks to stay red-hot when it takes on No. 11 Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.

Boyd has 730 passing yards and 7 TD in the past two games, leading his team to 73 combined points against Auburn and Florida State. The Hokies haven’t played a good team yet, but rank among the nation’s top-six teams in rush defense (43 YPG, 2nd), total defense (231 YPG, 4th) and scoring defense (10.0 PPG, 6th). Since 1998, Virginia Tech is 5-0 (SU and ATS) versus Clemson, outscoring the Tigers 174 to 61. Clemson is 3-7 SU in its past 10 road games, and the Hokies rarely lose at home, going 47-7 SU (87%) since 2003. They are also 9-5 ATS as a home favorite in the past three seasons. Take VIRGINIA TECH to win and cover on Saturday.

The FoxSheets show a three-star trend backing the Hokies:

Play On - A home team (VIRGINIA TECH) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with a poor defense (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. (24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also foresee the defenses outplaying the offenses and provide a four-star trend forecasting the UNDER to occur.

VIRGINIA TECH is 17-2 UNDER (89.5%, +14.8 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992. The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 29.5, OPPONENT 14.8 - (Rating = 4*).

Clemson has gained nearly 1,100 yards in its two big wins over Auburn and FSU. Freshman WR Sammy Watkins has been Boyd’s favorite target during these two contests with 14 receptions for 296 yards and 4 TD. Boyd has been money on third downs, as his team converted 23-of-35 (66%) of their third downs in the past two games and 53% (35-of-66) for the season. The defense has been a work in progress, allowing 406 yards per game (90th in nation) and 25.0 PPG (66th among FBS schools). The biggest reason for the deficiency starts with the defensive line, as Clemson has just four total sacks and has the third-fewest Tackles For Loss (3.0 per game) in the entire country.

The Hokies D-Line is the exact opposite, as DEs J.R. Collins and James Gayle combined for 12 tackles and four sacks in Saturday’s 30-10 win at Marshall. The team already has 14 sacks and 32 TFL (tied for 10th in nation), which has led to the gaudy defensive rankings. RB David Wilson is the key to the offense, as his 129 rushing YPG ranks seventh in the nation. QB Logan Thomas had a rough first two games (17-of-39, 240 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT), but has been better in his past two contests, completing 65% of his passes for 521 yards and two scores. However, he has thrown four interceptions in his past three games. Senior WR Danny Coale is adjusting to his new QB nicely, with 14 catches for 235 yards in the past two games.

[StarDust Bum]

Southwest Classic pits two Top-20 teams

TEXAS A&M AGGIES (2-1)
vs. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (3-1)

Cowboys Stadium - Arlington, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas A&M -3, Total: 62.5

Two teams that could become great rivals in the SEC will square off in the Southwest Classic at Cowboys Stadium as non-conference foes on Saturday, when No. 14 Texas A&M takes on No. 18 Arkansas.

Both teams suffered major setbacks last week as the Aggies blew a 20-3 halftime lead and lost at home to Oklahoma State, while Arkansas got pasted 38-14 in Alabama. A&M allowed OSU’s Brandon Weeden to throw for a school-record 438 yards, and will have its hands full with an excellent Arkansas receiving corps. The Razorbacks have two straight victories over the Aggies, winning easily 47-19 in 2009 and outlasting them 24-17 last year. For the Hogs to win again, they have to nullify Texas A&M’s potent pass rush that leads the nation with 4.7 sacks per game. Razorbacks QB Tyler Wilson has made good decisions all year (7 TD, 3 INT) and will allow his receivers to win this game. The pick here is ARKANSAS.

This FoxSheets trend also favors the Razorbacks:

Bobby Petrino is 14-4 ATS (77.8%, +9.6 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Petrino 34.8, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 1*).

Aggies QB Ryan Tannehill has 297 passing YPG and 6 TD, but threw 3 INT against the Oklahoma State. His talented WR duo of Ryan Swope and Jeff Fuller have combined for 38 catches, 474 yards and four touchdowns. A&M was supposed to have one of the best ground games in the land, but the team ranks 46th in the nation at 171 YPG. Cyrus Gray has 268 yards and four scores, but his 4.2 YPC average is way down from last year’s stellar 5.7 YPC. Christine Michael is gaining 7.1 YPC, but only has 25 carries on the year. Junior LB Sean Porter continues to lead the defense with 3.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL and 23 total tackles in two games.

Arkansas has won 12 straight non-conference games in the regular season. Wilson has played well as Ryan Mallett’s replacement, completing 67% of his passes for 252 YPG. And now he has his full receiving corps healthy with the senior trio of Joe Adams, Greg Childs and Jarius Wright, who combined for 2,260 yards and 17 TD last year. Junior Cobi Hamilton actually leads the team with 271 receiving yards, but only had one catch against Alabama (a 19-yard TD). The running game has been better than expected after the preseason injury to Knile Davis. Ronnie Wingo, Jr. was averaging 75 rushing YPG before the Tide held him to 35 yards on 11 carries last week. Despite forcing only two turnovers (both interceptions) in four games, Arkansas still ranks a respectable 35th in the country in total defense (328 YPG). Junior LB Alonzo Highsmith leads the team with 5.0 TFL and also has 22 total tackles.

[StarDust Bum]

OSU hosts Michigan State on Saturday

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (3-1)
at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (3-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Ohio State -3, Total: 44

Michigan State tries to beat Ohio State for the first time this century when the Big Ten rivals clash in Columbus.

The Buckeyes have dominated this series recently, winning the past seven meetings by a combined score of 234 to 110 (17.7 PPG). Although OSU will likely start freshman quarterback Braxton Miller, the key to this game is rushing the football and the Buckeyes have a much superior ground game. OSU has gained 184 YPG on 4.4 YPC, while MSU (which has played a far weaker schedule), has 143 YPG on 3.7 YPC. Since 2009, OSU is 15-3 ATS (17-1 SU) at The Horseshoe. The pick here is OHIO STATE.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also supports picking the Buckeyes:

Play Against - Any team (MICHIGAN ST) - with an incredible defense - allowing 4.2 or less yards/play, after allowing 150 or less total yards in their previous game. (29-5 over last 10 seasons.) (85.3%, +23.5 units).

In addition to Notre Dame, Michigan State has played Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic and Central Michigan this year. These three cupcakes are a big reason the Spartans lead the nation in total defense (172 YPG). QB Kirk Cousins hasn’t had to do too much throwing with all the big leads, but he has been solid. Cousins has completed 69% of his passes for 947 yards (8.1 YPA), 5 TD and 2 INT. The senior actually faced Ohio State when the teams last met in 2008. He replaced an ineffective Brian Hoyer and managed to complete 18-of-25 passes for 161 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in a 45-7 blowout loss. Le’Veon Bell scored three rushing TD in last week’s 45-7 pounding of CMU, giving him six scores this year. The Spartans also lead the nation in pass defense (101 YPG) and are 12th in turnover margin (+1.25 per game).

Ohio State freshman QB Braxton Miller expects to start again after rushing for 83 yards on 17 carries, and going 5-of-13 for 83 yards and 2 TD in a 37-17 win over Colorado last week. The Buckeyes will still be without suspended stars RB Dan Herron and WR DeVier Posey for one more game, but RB Carlos Hyde (263 rushing yards, 3 TD), WR Devin Smith (183 receiving yards, 3 TD) and TE Jake Stoneburner (93 receiving yards, 4 TD) have all stepped up their games to compensate. The Buckeyes defense has been solid in all facets. They rank 16th in total defense (276 YPG), 18th in scoring defense (15.8 PPG) and are averaging 2.5 sacks per game.