The Bum's CFB Week # 5 Best Bets 09/29-10/01

[StarDust Bum]

Boise State Bucking For Revenge Against Nevada Wolf Pack

The road team has covered four of the last five in this series.
Boise State has likely been waiting for this moment since last November. This Saturday, the Broncos will host the Nevada Wolf Pack at 2:30 p.m. (ET) in Bronco Stadium televised by VERSUS.

The undefeated Broncos are currently 27½-point favorites on the Don Best odds screen with a total of 62½.

Obviously, this game is not expected to be as closely contested as their last meeting with the Broncos ranked No. 7 on the Don Best Linemakers Poll. but revenge will certainly be on the minds of everyone in the Boise State program.

It was against the Wolf Pack last year that the efficient Broncos kicker Kyle Brotzman missed two field goals inside of 30 yards, one at the end of regulation and the other in overtime, crushing the hopes of BSU. Not only were the Broncos' national title chances kicked away by Nevada, but that also led to sharing the WAC title as well.

Sharing a WAC title this year won't be an issue for Boise State after moving to the Mountain West Conference. The other big difference for this matchup is that Nevada no longer has standout quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

The Broncos still have their man at QB and he has had an outstanding start to the 2011 season. Through three games, Kellen Moore has thrown for almost 1,000 yards, 12 touchdowns against two interceptions, and owns a 79 percent completion percentage.

He is also spreading the ball around. Four players on the team have double-digit receptions and none have caught more than 16, and five players have over 100 receiving yards. Touchdowns are a different story as wide receiver Tyler Shoemaker has 11 total catches with six of those being TDs.

Nevada is 1-2 on the year and coming off of an interesting game in Lubbock last week. Starting quarterback Tyler Lantrip was replaced by redshirt freshman Cody Fajardo who was extremely impressive on the ground and seemed to provide life for the Wolf Pack offense. Fajardo had 10 carries for 139 yards and two touchdowns along with a passing TD.

It still wasn't enough and Texas Tech rallied from 14 down in the second half for a 35-34 victory.

Running back Mike Ball also had 139 yards running the ball and the Wolf Pack are seventh in rushing in the nation.

Lantrip was not too bad either, going 11-for-18 and a throwing a TD. On the year, however, he has four interceptions and two touchdowns. A starting quarterback may not be named until Friday, although a reasonable expectation might be that Lantrip starts with Fajardo coming in for a change of pace. Head coach Chris Ault is comfortable with a two-quarterback system.

Boise State has been favored in each of the last 10 clashes with Nevada, winning nine straight up and going 7-3 against the spread. Meanwhile, the road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups, the one failure to cover coming in the game last season when the Broncos were laying 14 on the road..

Early weather reports do not appear to show an issue as the forecast is for partly cloudy skies.

[StarDust Bum]

Kentucky Wildcats Visit LSU Tigers In SEC Clash

Kentucky upset LSU four years ago, but the Tigers won the BCS title anyway.
The Kentucky Wildcats (2-2, 0-1 SEC) and LSU Tigers (4-0, 1-0 SEC) will have a good old-fashioned Southeastern Conference battle from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana Saturday afternoon.

Kickoff is scheduled for 12:20 p.m. (ET) and the game can be seen on ESPN3 and on PPV.

LSU will only be looking for one thing when these two teams meet in Louisiana on Saturday and that is revenge. Kentucky knocked off LSU 43-37 in overtime back in 2007, though the Tigers rebounded to go on and win the National Championship that season.

Les Miles' club opened up as a 28-point favorite against Kentucky and is now as high as 29½ and 30 at various college football betting shops. The initial total of the game was 46 and is now as high as 47.

The Tigers are 9-7 ATS in their last 16 games when favored by 25 points or more dating back to 2006.

Kentucky looked extremely outmatched in its conference home opener against the Florida Gators last Saturday. Florida won the game 48-10, covering the 17½-point spread very easily.

The Wildcats have covered five of their last seven meetings with LSU dating back to 1998 and the home team in this series is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.

LSU has won its last 14 games straight up at home in “Death Valley,” where opposing teams really struggle on the offensive side of the ball. The Tigers' last home loss came in 2009 at the hands of Florida, 13-3.

The Wildcats' two victories this year have come against non-threatening opposition in Central Michigan and Western Kentucky. LSU on the other hand has beaten three top teams – West Virginia, Mississippi State and Oregon – with two of the contests on the road and one at a neutral site.

Kentucky quarterback Morgan Newton has already thrown six interceptions to only five touchdown passes through four games. Newton is also ranked 10th in the SEC in total passing yards this season.

LSU’s defense will have to make sure it shuts down Kentucky’s top receiving threat La’Rod King. The 6-foot-4 junior already has 19 receptions for 276 yards. His four receiving TDs are tied for the SEC lead.

LSU (117.9 points) moved up one spot to No. 3 in this week's Don Best Linemakers Poll following the dominating 47-21 win at West Virginia.

The Tigers are currently ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press College Football Poll, followed by Oklahoma and Alabama. Kentucky is not ranked in the top 40 on the Don Best Linemakers Poll and is last in the SEC West.

The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog and will have their hands full with one of the most powerful rush defenses in the nation (53.2 rush yards per game and 1.9 yards per rush). Miles will simply not allow LSU to overlook Kentucky in this SEC game early in the year.

Early weather forecasts show a perfect day for football with mostly sunny skies and a high around 82 degrees.

[StarDust Bum]

TGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPDATE...LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE?

Houston at UTEP (Thursday) ...UH's record-setting QB Case Keenum suffered a sidelining injury in 3rd Q vs. UTEP in second game LY, but Cougar attack didn't miss a beat behind backup Cotton Turner (hit 9 of 10) in 54-24 home romp.

Utah State at BYU (Friday)...Utah State's 3rd-year HC Gary Andersen is 8-0 as a DD road dog since taking over in 2009 (1-0 TY). Aggies covered 5 of last 6 vs. rival BYU, including 31-16 upset at Logan LY, which snapped 10-game series losing streak.

Oregon State at ARIZONA STATE...ASU seeking to avoid its first (and only) 4-game series losing streak since 1971. Sun Devils' embroiled HC Dennis Erickson was Beaver head honcho from 1999-02.

Nevada at BOISE STATE...BSU out for blood after its 24-game win streak was snapped in LY's 34-31 OT series loss, which knocked Broncos out of possible national title game and a BCS bowl. BSU, which led 24-7 at H, incredibly blew game-winning 26-yd. FG attempt with :02 left, and then whiffed on 28-yd. try in extra period. Nevada HC Ault called it "the greatest victory this university has ever had." Broncos are 40-20 as chalk on "blue carpet" since 2000.

Wake Forest at BOSTON COLLEGE...WF geared-up to snap 4-game series losing streak, in particular, soph QB Tanner Price (18 of 30 for 177 yds. vs. BC), whose commendable effort was tainted by season-high 4 "picks" in 23-13 setback in Winston-Salem LY. Last 8 in series decided by total of just 45 points.

Northern Illinois at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...Scheduling dynamics favor NIU. Huskies off tuneup vs. FCS foe Cal Poly, while CMU off from 3 straight away, including battle at Michigan State last week. NIU 7-1 vs. spread in MAC reg.-season games LY.

Alabama at FLORIDA...Double-revenger UF looking for some retribution following LY's 31-6 loss in Tuscaloosa. Gators narrowly outgained Bama (289-271), but had 4 giveaways, including 35-yd. int. return for TD.

Ole Miss at FRESNO STATE...FSU hosting an SEC foe for the first time ever. Bulldog "D" out for redemption after yielding 425 YR in 47 totes in 55-38 defeat in hot & humid Oxford LY. Rebels not playing with much cause lately.

Northwestern at ILLINOIS...NU 9-3 vs. spread last 12 in the battle for the Land of Lincoln Trophy. Wildcats' star QB Dan Persa missed LY's 48-27 setback at Wrigley Field. Illinois RB Mikel Leshoure, who left later for the NFL, amassed 330 YR vs. rival. Series has gone "under" in 8 of past 10.

Georgia Tech at NORTH CAROLINA STATE...GT in serious revenge mode following disturbing 45-28 loss in Atlanta LY, which was Engineers' worst defensive effort in ACC since 1996! GT was glad to bid adieu to former NCS QB Russell Wilson (transferred to Wisconsin), who had 368 YP and 3 TDs in LY's meeting.

Smu at TCU...SMU has covered 3 of last 4 as a DD dog in the battle for the Iron Skillet. And TCU's 41-24 win LY was closer than score indicates, as Mustangs (trailed just 14-10 at H) were outgained just 385-361, but gave up 83-yd. KO return & 19-yd int. return for TDs.

Buffalo at TENNESSEE...Would expect UB QB Chazz Anderson (Cincy backup for 3 years before transferring) to acquire a detailed scouting report from some former Bearcat teammates, who played in Knoxville on Sept. 10.

Uab at TROY...Troy amped up for rematch vs. instate foe UAB. Trojans incredibly blew 23-0 lead LY, and then gave up 44-yd. "Hail Mary" TD pass as time expired to cap 99-yd. Blazer drive in nightmarish 34-33 loss in Birmingham LY.

Bowling Green at WEST VIRGINIA...BG is 18-10 as a road dog since 2005 (1-0 TY), while WV just 12-14-1 as DD chalk in Morgantown over same period (0-1 TY). WV caught in classic "sandwich spot" between payback games vs. LSU and Connecticut.

[StarDust Bum]

Baylor Bears In Key Tilt At Kansas State Wildcats

The total has gone ’under in nine of Baylor’s last 13 road games.
Never underestimate a Bill Snyder-coached Kansas State team.

We’re relatively sure nobody has to remind Baylor coach Art Briles of as much this week.

"Back to the Future" seems to be on course in Manhattan, Kansas, where Snyder’s Wildcats host Briles’ Bears in an intriguing matchup of Big XII unbeatens on Saturday. Kickoff time in the "Little Apple" is slated for 3:30 p.m. (ET), with regional TV coverage provided by ESPN’s GamePlan.

Posted numbers in Las Vegas have Baylor a 3 ½-point betting choice at almost every sports book, with the total priced aggressively at 63½ ‘under’ at most locales.

Of course, both have appeared on the college football radar screen already this season due to exciting upset wins by each. Baylor's came in a wild, opening-week 50-48 shootout over favored TCU in Waco. Kansas State's was last week at Miami-Florida, where the Wildcats used a last-minute goal-line stand to preserve a 28-24 win as a double-digit underdog against the 'Canes.

And therein, with Snyder’s gnarly defense, lies the most fascinating matchup of this battle, as the Wildcat stop unit will now be tasked with slowing down arguably the nation’s hottest offensive force.

We’re talking about Baylor QB Robert Griffin III, whose early-season stats are eye-opening even by the standards set by potent Briles spread attacks throughout his coaching career.

Never mind the TD pass/interception ratio with RG3; how about TD pass/incompletion ratio? That seems a fairer fight when it comes to Griffin, who has tossed 13 TD passes and only 12 incompletions in his first three games. Moroever, Griffin’s 13.74 yards per completion ranks behind only Clemson’s Tajh Boyd (at 13.94 yards per completion) among the nation’s top-25 rated passers.

Thanks to Griffin, Baylor’s offense is percolating and ranked second nationally in total offense at a whopping 594 yards per game, while scoring 51.3 points per game (third nationally). That's almost as much as Scott Drew’s Bear hoopsters during the basketball season.

Slashing RB Terance Ganaway is providing nice balance on the attack end, gaining nearly six yards per carry thus far.

Solving the Snyder defense was not a problem for Griffin and the Baylor offense last season when the Bears piled up 683 yards in a 47-42 win at Waco, a score that flattered the Wildcats who scored two late TDs to narrow the final margin.

Expect K-State to offer much stiffer resistance on Saturday, reflected by its impressive standing in a variety of important defensive categories, including scoring "D" (10.33 ppg, ranking 7th) and total "D" (246 ypg, ranking 6th). Some of those numbers were helped by early-season foes Eastern Kentucky and Kent State. The stout effort at Miami, however, indicates the defense might be for real.

Whatever, Big XII sources confirm upgrades along Snyder’s stop unit, thanks mainly to a revamped linebacking crew adept at delivering the big plays when needed. Miami transfer Arthur Brown has added an element of speed to the ’backers, as has the switch of former DB Emmanuel Lamur to another LB spot. Griffin will be seeing a lot of them on Saturday.

Expect Snyder’s K-State offense to try and help the defense by playing a little ball control when on the field as a way to keep Griffin and the potent Bear offense on the sidelines. Snyder was encouraged by the progress of new, rough-hewn QB Collin Klein last week vs. the Canes, but an even-more important development has been the emergence of 5-foot-8 soph RB John Hubert, a dynamo who gained 166 yards on 18 carries last week in the upset of Miami.

Although the Griffin vs. K-State defense is the headline of this matchup, the result might well be decided by how well Klein, Hubert and the Wildcat offense deal with a Baylor defense that has sprung a few leaks thus far, ranking 71st in scoring defense (26.3 ppg).

Also note that Snyder has continued to offer good pointspread value as a 'dog in his reincarnation at KSU, covering nine of 14 as the "short" since reappearing on the sidelines in 2009.

[StarDust Bum]

Clemson, Va Tech Face Off For ACC Supremacy

Virginia Tech has won and covered each of the last five meetings with Clemson.
Whereas much of the nation’s college football attention will be focused upon the Alabama-Florida and Nebraska-Wisconsin showdowns this weekend, there’s a pretty good battle with poll and BCS implications taking place in the ACC on Saturday, too.

A pair of 4-0 unbeatens, Clemson (No. 23 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll) and Virginia Tech (No. 13), square off at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg. Kickoff is slated for 6:00 p.m. (ET) in Appalachia, with the host Hokies listed as solid 7-point betting favorites at the majority of Las Vegas betting shops, and the total posted at 49 ‘under’ at most locations.

A month ago, few were expecting this contest to have such high-stake implications. That’s because the Tigers were mostly overlooked as serious ACC and BCS contenders, partially due to a tough early schedule that featured pesky Troy right out of the gate, to be soon followed by dates vs. well-regarded Auburn and Florida State in back-to-back weeks.

The fact that Clemson survived Troy and had lots of trouble with FCS Wofford on September 10 (a hard-fought 35-27 Tigers win) raised doubts about Dabo Swinney’s squad. Those concerns have mostly been put to rest after a pair of rousing wins at Death Valley vs. the defending national champs from Auburn, as well as the Seminoles from Tallahassee.

Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer can probably relate to the plight of Clemson counterpart Swinney, who entered this campaign on an acknowledged hot seat. Although many present-day fans might not recall, or have a hard time believing as much, Beamer was in even more hot water at one time early in his career at Blacksburg.

Beamer was under the gun in 1993 to produce after a 2-8-1 record the previous year and no postseason visits in his first six seasons at his alma mater. It was really "bowl or bust" for Beamer, and his Hokies, behind QB Maurice DeShazo, responded heroically by going 9-3 and ranked 20th in the final polls as well as qualifying for their first bowl on Beamer’s watch.

The Hokies routed Indiana in that Independence Bowl and have been to the postseason every year since.

Swinney’s predicament looked almost as dicey entering this campaign, especially after the Tigers regressed to a 6-7 mark a year ago when losing many close games. The restless IPTAY crowd, disturbed not only by results but by a sluggish offense as well, let it be known that upgrades were needed, and fast.

Further, Swinney had to deal with the departure of 2-year starting QB Kyle Parker, who decided to concentrate on baseball instead.

But in what is appearing to be one of the genius staff moves of the offseason, Swinney enlisted offensive coordinator Chad Morris from Tulsa to help jazz up the somnambulant attack. Morris had been at the controls of an electric Golden Hurricane spread offense that set numerous school marks in 2010, and was ripe for a move after being bypassed for the head coaching job at Tulsa in favor of fellow assistant Bill Blankenship, all in the wake of Todd Graham’s departure for Pitt.

Morris has injected some real voltage into the Clemson offensive mix, and soph QB Tajh Boyd, who flashed some upside last year as a frosh, has proven a quick study in the new Tiger attack. Boyd has passed for 1255 yards, 13 TDs and only one pick in his first four outings as Clemson has posted 503 yards per game (ranking 13th nationally) and has scored at a healthy 38 ppg clip.

Effective balance is being provided by slashing RB Andre Ellington, well on his way to a 1000-yard season with 371 rush yards to date. Remember, too, that the Tiger offense became especially choppy a year ago when Ellington went down with a late-season toe injury.

But even the most diehard among the IPTAY crowd must realize that the fundamental challenge in Blacksburg will be far greater than any the Tigers have encountered yet this season. This week, the Morris offense has to deal with another of Hokie defensive coordinator Bud Foster’s voracious stop units.

ACC sources suggest this is looking to be one of the best of many top-notch VPI defenses under Foster, ranking fourth nationally in total "D" at 231 yards per game. As usual, Foster’s defense attacks and blitzes from all angles, covers sideline-to-sideline as good as anyone due to great foot speed, and is loaded with playmakers. Among those, linebacker Bruce Taylor is considered among the most-impactful at his position in the country.

Beamer’s team, however, has not managed a pointspread cover since its opener vs. Appalachian State, partly due to the learning curve of new QB Logan Thomas. Beamer believes Thomas is on course for bigger and better things, but his numbers have been modest thus far (just 57% completions, 4 TD and 4 picks to date). How effectively he and big-play wideouts Danny Coale and Marcus Davis challenge what has been a shaky Clemson pass defense will say a lot about Va Tech’s chance to perhaps extend the margin.

In the meantime, the Hokie offense pivots around slamming RB David Wilson, among the nation’s rush leaders with 486 yards to date as well as gaining a hefty 5.6 yards per carry.

The matchup we want to watch in Blacksburg, however, remains the Chad Morris Clemson offense vs. the Bud Foster VPI defense. Stay tuned.

[StarDust Bum]

Ohio State Buckeyes Host Michigan State Spartans

The Buckeyes have covered five of the last six vs. Michigan State.
While this weekend’s main event in the Big Ten will be staged at Madison where Nebraska will invade to face Wisconsin in a showdown at Camp Randall Stadium, the undercard will focus on a battle of one-loss teams at the Big Horseshoe in Columbus, where Ohio State (3-1; No. 25 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll) plays host to Michigan State (3-1; No. 18).

Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. (ET), with regional TV coverage provided by ABC. The Buckeyes are 3-point favorites in most Las Vegas shops, with the total priced at 44 ‘under’ for Saturday’s battle on the banks of the Olentangy.

Coach Mark Dantonio’s Spartans will also be looking for their first road win in this series since 1998.

Although the result of this battle could have significant consequences in the conference race, we are not sure this or any Big Ten battle this season (save perhaps Saturday night’s Nebraska-Wisconsin showdown) is terribly significant in the nationwide sense.

Certainly, the Spartans and Buckeyes have both been exposed as non-contenders on the national scene when each suffered humbling 18-point beatings in their stiffest non-conference challenges (Michigan State losing at Notre Dame, Ohio State succumbing at Miami-Florida). Neither was really viewed either as serious BCS challengers this season, especially considering the offseason upheaval in Columbus, and the unmasking of the Spartans as a legit powerhouse when napalmed by Alabama in last January’s Capital One Bowl.

The Big Ten also endured a fairly difficult September, with only a handful of significant non-conference successes – narrow wins by Michigan over Notre Dame and Illinois over Arizona State are the only one that come to mind – amidst several humbling scorelines.

Among those setbacks were losses by Minnesota to both New Mexico State and North Dakota State, losses by Indiana to Virginia and North Texas, a defeat of Purdue by Rice, Northwestern's setback at Army, and Iowa’s bitter overtime loss at Iowa State. More debits than credits on the Big Ten ledger thus far, to be sure.

While no one is figuring the Spartans and Buckeyes into the eventual BCS mix, their battle nonetheless shapes up as a competitive and perhaps compelling one this week. Indeed, there is an extra level of intrigue in each Ohio State game with the fate of interim head coach Luke Fickell growing more and more tenuous with any unimpressive Buckeye effort.

Most sources suggest Fickell is just a place-holder anyway, a stop-gap solution to Jim Tressel’s offseason dismissal. Conventional wisdom in the midwest is that Fickell might have to run the table the remainder of the season to even rate consideration for a full-time appointment, which figures to draw no shortage of high-profile candidates.

Included among them could be MSU’s Dantonio, who served as Tressel’s defensive coordinator before taking the top job at Cincinnati in 2004.

An extended Ohio State win streak, however, looks rather unlikely, especially since Fickell has already been forced into a QB switch after limited sr. Joe Bauserman’s limitations were exposed in the loss at Miami. True freshman Braxton Miller was thus elevated to the starting role last week vs. Colorado, and responded as well as could be expected in the 37-17 win over the Buffs. Although only 5 of 13 through the air,

Miller did include a pair of TD strikes to Devin Smith, while adding 83 rush yards in a much better imitation of the dismissed Terrelle Pryor than Bauserman managed in the previous three weeks.

Look for Fickell and offensive coordinator Jim Bollman to put the freshman QB in more favorable situations featuring plenty of quick dump passes, screens and fast-developing options to counter the expected pressure Pat Narduzzi’s MSU defense is likely to bring.

Establishing an infantry diversion with RB Jordan Hall, who gained 84 yards rushing last week vs. CU and also returned a kickoff 90 yards to set up a score, will be crucial to keep some of the heat off of frosh pilot Miller. Last year’s leading Buck rusher Dan Herron remains suspended for another game.

Dantonio’s Spartans actually lead the nation in total (172 ypg) and pass (101 ypg) defense, although a slate that has included the likes of Florida Atlantic, Youngstown State and Central Michigan has contributed to those impressive numbers. State’s stop unit was hardly impenetrable two weeks ago at South Bend in the 31-13 loss vs. Notre Dame.

The return of run-stuffing DT Anthony Rashad White from a thigh contusion should make the front seven even more robust and perhaps limit the damage the Buckeyes can cause on the ground. Dantonio and Narduzzi hope this is the case, forcing the young Miller to make the plays for the OSU offense against the swarming MSU secondary.

If nothing else, the Spartans rate an experience edge at QB with established senior Kirk Cousins, completing 70% of his passes this season. But MSU has not been consistently establishing the run in recent weeks, and Cousins proved he could not carry the entire offensive burden in the loss at Notre Dame.

Expect a competitive, lower-scoring game in Columbus.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 5

September 28, 2011

Thursday, Sept. 29
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
SOUTH FLORIDA at PITT...USF now 4-1 vs. line last five since late LY. Meanwhile, Todd Graham 1-3 vs. line at Pitt after his great spread success at Tulsa LY. USF, based on recent numbers.

HOUSTON at UTEP...Cougs had failed to cover three straight vs. Mike Price before LY's 54-24 rout. UH only 3-9 vs. number last 12 away from home, and just 6-13 as road chalk since '07. Price 9-4 as Sun Bowl dog since taking over Miners in 2004. UTEP, based on team trends.




Friday, Sept. 30
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
UTAH STATE at BYU...USU's 31-16 win at Logan LY was Utags' fifth cover in last six vs. Cougs but first SU win in series since 1993. USU 19-8 vs. line on road since 2007. USU, based on team trends.




Saturday, Oct. 1
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

AIR FORCE at NAVY...Force finally beat Navy LY for first time since '02, setting up Falcs for their first Commander-in-Chief run since then as well. But Mids covered LY and are 7-0-1 against line last 8 in series. Niumatalolo on 10-5 spread run last 15 on board. Navy, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at ILLINOIS...Cats had covered 4 of last 5 and 8 of last 10 vs. Illini prior to getting pounded in last season's game at Wrigley Field. Fitzgerald only 5-11 vs. spread last 16 on board since 2010, Fitz also 3-4 last 7 as dog since 2010 after 14-7 mark previous three years in role. Zook 6-4 as chalk since LY after 0-5 mark in role in '09. Slight to Illinois, based on recent trends.

MINNESOTA at MICHIGAN...Little Brown Jug. Teams haven't even met since 2008. Tending to discount Mich Rich-Rod marks from past three years; nonetheless, Mich 6-16 last 22 as chalk. Note Jerry Kill road dog marks were not that great at NIU (only 9-10 the past four years). Slight to Michigan based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST at BOSTON COLLEGE...Spaziani no covers last 7 as home chalk, 1-9 vs. spread last 10 overall as host. Eagles, however, have won and covered last four vs. Deacs. Wake, based on recent Spaziani home woes.

RUTGERS at SYRACUSE...Ugh! Marrone has turned around this series for Cuse, which has won and covered last two years vs. Schiano after dropping previous four SU and vs. line against Rutgers. Schiano 14-8-1 vs. points last 23 away despite poor 1-3-1 away mark LY. Slight to Rutgers, based on extended trends.

TOLEDO at TEMPLE...Teams didn't meet LY, indeed have faced only once since '06. Owls 4-0 vs. line TY. Slight to Temple, based on recent trends.

BOWLING GREEN at WEST VIRGINIA...BGSU 6-3 as road dog since LY, 15-5 in role since 2007. Falcs 11-3 vs. spread last 14 as non-MAC reg.-season visitor. BGSU, based on team trends.

IDAHO at VIRGINIA...Akey has covered last 6 vs. non-conf. foes away from Moscow. Vandals 10-5 vs. points last 15 away. Mike London 4-2 as chalk with Cavs and 5-2 as host. Slight to Idaho, based on extended road marks.

BUFFALO at TENNESSEE...Bulls 3-1 vs. line TY although they dropped 10 of last 11 vs. spread in 2010. Vols have covered 6 of last 7 reg.-season games vs. FBS foes since mid 2010, including last 3 as home chalk. Slight to Tennessee, based on team trends.

TULANE at ARMY...The road dog has won outright the past three years in this series, and visitor has covered last four meetings. Tulane, based on series trends.

PENN STATE at INDIANA...Shades no covers last 5 since late LY, now 5-13 against number since 2010. Shades only 1-4 vs. points last 5 as visitor (LY Indiana game neutral). IU 6-2 vs. line at Bloomington since LY (4-0 last 4). Slight to Indiana, based on team trends.

GEORGIA TECH at NC STATE...GT flying from the gate with 4 wins and covers in 2011, while NCS has dropped four straight vs. spread to open campaign. Paul Johnson now 25-15 vs. spread with Jackets since arriving in 2008. GT, based on recent trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at UCONN...Cubit has covered last 5 spread results since late LY and is 8-2-1 vs. line last 11 on board since mid 2010. WMU, based on recent trends.

AKRON at EASTERN MICHIGAN...EMU should be rare chalk here, 0-2 vs. line in role for Ron English since 2009. Zips a bloody 0-3 vs. line in 2011, and 1-14 SU for Rob Ianello. Slight to EMU, based on Akron woes.

CINCINNATI at MIAMI-OHIO...Local battle, and Bearcats turning into a wrecking crew with easy wins and covers in first three as chalk TY. Bearcats haven't lost SU to RedHawks since 2005 and have covered 4 of last 5 in series, with last 5 wins since 2006 by 14 or more. Cincy, based on series trends.

KENT STATE at OHIO...Hazell 0-4 vs. line out of blocks with Kent State although Flashes have been in fairly tough (at Bama and Bill Snyder). On other hand, Solich a punishing 16-7 vs. spread in reg. season vs. FBS foes since early 2009. Solich, based on recent trends.

TEXAS TECH at KANSAS...Turner Gill 4-5 vs. line at Lawrence since arriving at KU LY and not overly impressive. Teams last met in '09 when Leach beat Mangino 42-21. TT, based on recent trends.

NEVADA at BOISE STATE...Revenge for Boise after wild 34-31 loss LY at Reno. Note that this series has become more competitive past four years, with Wolf Pack covering 3 of 4 and both games on blue carpet. Pack only 11-19 vs. line last 30 on road. Slight to Boise, based on Wolf Pack road woes.

Buffs have covered 6 of their last 8 at Boulder but just 1-3 last 4 as chalk against teams not named CSU. Cougs on 9-3 spread run since early 2010 for Paul Wulff. WSU, based on recent trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...Chips skidding for Dan Enos, 0-4 vs. line early TY and 2-10 last 12 on board. Huskies are 7-2 vs. the spread their last nine on board vs. MAC foes. NIU, based on team trends.

UCLA at STANFORD...Programs headed in opposite directions, Slick Rick 1-6 vs. line last 7 since late LY and 2-7 vs. spread last 9 as visitor. Meanwhile, Tree on 6-game over streak and has covered 8 of last 9 since mid 2010. Stanford, based on team trends.

TEXAS at IOWA STATE...Horns looking for revenge again and Mack will have several chances to do so this season. Mack still just 5-13 last 18 vs. line since late 2009. Slight to ISU, based on extended Texas negatives.

MICHIGAN STATE at OHIO STATE...Spartans only 2-7 last 9 as dog away from East Lansing. Slight to OSU, based on team trends.

ALABAMA at FLORIDA...Tide has dominated last two meetings that includes '09 SEC title game. Nick 14-6 vs. line last 20 away from Tuscaloosa and 28-14 last 42 on board. Gators off 4-0 SU and vs. spread for Will Muschamp. Slight to Bama, based on recent Saban trends.

MARSHALL at LOUISVILLE...Cards 8-18 vs. spread at Papa John's post-Bobby Petrino (since 2007). Herd, however, just 1-6 vs. line away for Doc Holliday, and 1-7 last 8 vs. spread as visitor since late '09. Slight to UL, based on Herd road woes.

TEXAS A&M vs. ARKANSAS (Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)... Hogs have won and covered last two years in these games at Jerry Stadium and Petrino 11-3 vs. number last 14 reg.-season games. If Ags a dog note 5-13 mark in role away from Kyle Field since '07. Arkansas, based on team and series trends.

ARIZONA at SOUTHERN CAL...Mike Stoops had covered five straight vs. Trojans prior to last season and has covered last three at Coliseum. Lane Kiffin 2-6 against line at Coliseum and SC 3-10 against number last 13 as host. Arizona, based on extended trends.

WASHINGTON at UTAH...Sarkisian has covered his last seven games vs. FBS foes as well as last three as dog. Utes no covers last three at Salt Lake City. UW, based on recent trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at COLORADO STATE...CSU no bargain with 5-17 spread mark last 21 on board and 2-6 last 8 as chalk. SJSU has covered last 3 in 2011. SJSU, based on extended CSU spread woes.

OREGON STATE at ARIZONA STATE...OSU no covers last five on board and 1-7 spread mark last eight since late LY. Mike Riley also no covers last 3 away after 18-7 spread mark on road prior. ASU 5-2 vs. line last 7 in series. Erickson 11-4 vs. line last 15 on board. ASU, based on recent OSU woes.

BAYLOR at KANSAS STATE...Baylor 5-0 in rare road chalk role since 2005. Bill Snyder 9-5 as dog since returning to K-State in 2009. Slight to KSU, based on Snyder dog mark.

BALL STATE at OKLAHOMA...Ball State on road where it has had more success vs. line that at home lately, now 15-5 vs. spread last 20 as reg.-season visitor. Cards 8-4 last 12 as DD road dog. Stoops 21-12 laying DDs since 2007, 8-3 last 11 laying 20 or more. OU, based on team trends.

HAWAII at LA TECH...La Tech has covered last three at home vs. UH in the most far-flung WAC rivalry. Home team 6-0-1 vs. line last 7 in series. LT 14-6 against line as host since '07. La Tech, based on series and team trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at GEORGIA...Dan Mullen only 8-9 against number since LY. If MSU an underdog note 1-5 spread mark in role since LY. But Georgia just 3-10 against spread last 13 between the hedges against FBS foes. Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.

AUBURN at SOUTH CAROLINA...Auburn won and covered both meetings LY so revenge for Spurrier, who is 6-2 vs. line last 8 in revenge. SC, based on Spurrier revenge trends.

RICE at SOUTHERN MISS...Owls just 1-7 last 8 as visitor vs. spread. Slight to USM, based on recent Rice road woes.

CLEMSON at VIRGINIA TECH...Teams have only met twice since VT entered ACC, with Hokies getting wins and covers in 2006-07. Dabo 4-1 last five as road dog. Beamer 11-5 last 16 on board. Slight to Beamer, based on extended trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at NEW MEXICO...DeWayne Walker 2-0 SU and 1-1 vs. line against Lobos last two years. Walker 10-5 vs. line on road since arriving at NSU in 2009. NMSU, based on team trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at EAST CAROLINA...Ruffin McNeil 6-5 as dog since LY and ECU 29-14 in role since 2005 (23-9 of that mark credited to Skip Holtz between 2005-09). Road chalk not a great role lately for Heels, just 2-6 since '05. Slight to ECU, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA at WISCONSIN...Bo Pelini has covered his last five as a dog, but Huskers just 3-6-1 vs. spread last ten on board since mid 2010. Bielema on 9-2 spread run since mid 2010. Wisconsin, based on recent trends.

KENTUCKY at LSU...Joker on 2-8 spread run since mid 2010 and has dropped six straight vs. number away from Commonwealth Stadium. Les just 2-5 vs. line last 7 as Baton Rouge chalk, 9-18 last 27 in role. Slight to LSU, based on UK negatives.

NOTRE DAME at PURDUE...Irish have won and covered 3 of last four. Danny Hope 3-7-1 vs. line last 11 at Ross-Ade, but 3-1 as home dog. Brian Kelly 5-3 vs. spread away from South Bend since LY and his teams are 16-9-1 vs. line as visitor (Cincy & ND) since '07. ND, based on Brian Kelly road trends.

OLE MISS at FRESNO STATE...Houston Nutt 6-13 vs. line last 19 on board, although Pat Hill only 5-15-1 against points last 21 at Dog House. Slight to Fresno, based on recent Ole Miss woes.

SMU at TCU (Write-In Game)...Metroplex war which SMU has not won since 2005, but has seen Mustangs cover 4 of last 5. June Jones 9-4 last 13 as dog, and Ponies have covered 3 of last 4 trips to Fort Worth. Slight to SMU, based on series trends.




Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

ARKANSAS STATE at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Red Wolves have failed to cover last two vs. WKU and lost outright LY, although they are 3-0 vs. spread out of gate for Deep Freeze in 2011 and 10-5 on line since LY. ASU, based on recent trends.

DUKE at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL...Golden Panthers 7-2 against spread last 9 since late LY. Cutcliffe 10-4 last 14 as road dog, however. Duke, based on extended road dog mark.

UAB at TROY...Troy only 1-5 vs. line at home since LY but 12-7 against spread at Movie Gallery Stadium since 2007. Troy, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at UL-LAFAYETTE...Ragin' Cajuns 7-1 against line last 8 vs. FBS foes ULL, based on recent trends.

MEMPHIS at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Tigers 4-10 vs. spread last 14 on road. MTSU 9-4 last 13 vs. line at Jonny Floyd Stadium. MTSU, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at TULSA...Tulsa 4-1 last five as home chalk. UNT 9-21-1 vs. spread last 30 in reg. season vs. non-Belt foes. Tulsa, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Trending: College Football ATS win streaks

As we enter the fifth week of the college football season, just eight teams are undefeated ATS in all of the FBS. There are four at 4-0 and four at 3-0. Based on data from the last three seasons, there are a number of strong angles working against those that are 3-0, while there are both positive and negative trends for those at 4-0.

3-0 ATS TEAMS
From 2008-2010, 45 teams opened the season 3-0 ATS. Overall, these teams are just 17-28 ATS (37.8%) in their next game. Breaking these teams down by Home-Away/Neutral and Favorite-Underdog shows some even stronger forces working against home teams and underdogs that begin the year 3-0 ATS:
Team ATS Pct.
Home 8-15 34.8%
Away/Neutral 9-13 40.9%
Favorite 13-19 40.6%
Underdog 4-9 30.8%


The four teams that have opened the season 3-0 ATS are:
Team ATS This Week
Baylor 3-0 Road favorite (-3 at Kansas St.)
Navy 3-0 Home favorite (-2.5 vs. Air Force)
Rutgers 3-0 Road underdog (+2.5 at Syracuse)
Stanford 3-0 Home favorite (-20.5 vs. UCLA)



4-0 ATS TEAMS
For the 17 teams that made it to 4-0 ATS, the numbers for their next game are mixed. Overall, they have gone 9-8 (52.9%) ATS in game five. Those who have had to go on the road have fared better, as have those who have been underdogs:
Team ATS Pct.
Home 3-5 37.5%
Away/Neutral 6-3 66.7%
Favorite 4-6 40.0%
Underdog 5-2 71.4%


The four teams that have opened the season 4-0 ATS are:
Team ATS This Week
Arkansas State 4-0 Road favorite (-13.5 at W.Kentucky)
Florida 4-0 Home underdog (+3.5 vs. Alabama)
Georgia Tech 4-0 Road favorite (-9.5 at NC State)
Temple 4-0 Home favorite (-7.5 vs. Toledo)


Of the nine teams that made it to 5-0 ATS, five of them made it to 6-0. Here are the five longest season-opening ATS streaks from 2008-2010:
8 - Oklahoma State ’08
7 - Connecticut ’09
7 - Idaho ’09
7 - Texas ’08
6 - Utah ’10

[StarDust Bum]

OSU hosts Michigan State on Saturday

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (3-1)
at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (3-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Ohio State -3, Total: 44

Michigan State tries to beat Ohio State for the first time this century when the Big Ten rivals clash in Columbus.

The Buckeyes have dominated this series recently, winning the past seven meetings by a combined score of 234 to 110 (17.7 PPG). Although OSU will likely start freshman quarterback Braxton Miller, the key to this game is rushing the football and the Buckeyes have a much superior ground game. OSU has gained 184 YPG on 4.4 YPC, while MSU (which has played a far weaker schedule), has 143 YPG on 3.7 YPC. Since 2009, OSU is 15-3 ATS (17-1 SU) at The Horseshoe. The pick here is OHIO STATE.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also supports picking the Buckeyes:

Play Against - Any team (MICHIGAN ST) - with an incredible defense - allowing 4.2 or less yards/play, after allowing 150 or less total yards in their previous game. (29-5 over last 10 seasons.) (85.3%, +23.5 units).

In addition to Notre Dame, Michigan State has played Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic and Central Michigan this year. These three cupcakes are a big reason the Spartans lead the nation in total defense (172 YPG). QB Kirk Cousins hasn’t had to do too much throwing with all the big leads, but he has been solid. Cousins has completed 69% of his passes for 947 yards (8.1 YPA), 5 TD and 2 INT. The senior actually faced Ohio State when the teams last met in 2008. He replaced an ineffective Brian Hoyer and managed to complete 18-of-25 passes for 161 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in a 45-7 blowout loss. Le’Veon Bell scored three rushing TD in last week’s 45-7 pounding of CMU, giving him six scores this year. The Spartans also lead the nation in pass defense (101 YPG) and are 12th in turnover margin (+1.25 per game).

Ohio State freshman QB Braxton Miller expects to start again after rushing for 83 yards on 17 carries, and going 5-of-13 for 83 yards and 2 TD in a 37-17 win over Colorado last week. The Buckeyes will still be without suspended stars RB Dan Herron and WR DeVier Posey for one more game, but RB Carlos Hyde (263 rushing yards, 3 TD), WR Devin Smith (183 receiving yards, 3 TD) and TE Jake Stoneburner (93 receiving yards, 4 TD) have all stepped up their games to compensate. The Buckeyes defense has been solid in all facets. They rank 16th in total defense (276 YPG), 18th in scoring defense (15.8 PPG) and are averaging 2.5 sacks per game.

[StarDust Bum]

South Florida at Pittsburgh

September 28, 2011

Matchup: #16 South Florida (4-0) at Pittsburgh (2-2)
Venue: Heinz Field – Natural Grass
Date: Thursday, Sept. 29
Time/TV: 8:00 pm ET - ESPN
Line: South Florida -2.5, o/u 52

Two in a row is a certified streak!

Unfortunately for NC State, their team is not nearly as potent without QB Russell Wilson and the results proved that last Thursday. Cincinnati (-7) was a relatively easy call playing at home against the Wolfpack and looking for revenge for a defeat in Raleigh in 2010. When the final gun sounded the scoreboard read 44-14 and it might not have been that close.

That win accompanied by LSU the previous week and Western Kentucky in Week 1, brings me to 3-1 on Thursday nights this season. My one blemish – taking Arizona and the points at Oklahoma State in Week 2 – looks even more foolish after the Cowboys’ impressive win at Texas A&M last weekend but I won’t make that mistake again.

Looking to push my record to 4-1, let’s turn the page to Week 5 in College Football. This Thursday night, 16th ranked South Florida travels to Pittsburgh in the Big East opener for both teams. Of course, with the way conferences are realigning, this won’t be a Big East matchup for long. Heck, it’s only been a Big East game for a couple years now and with Pittsburgh having signed a deal to move to the ACC, this matchup probably doesn’t have much shelf life left.

That doesn’t mean much to either of the coaches involved in this game. South Florida’s Skip Holtz and Pittsburgh’s Todd Graham tangled several times in Conference USA when Graham was with Rice and Tulsa and Holtz was with East Carolina. Now they are both in the Big East and regardless of how the conferences realign, this probably won’t be the last time these rising stars in the coaching ranks face off. (For those scoring at home, Holtz has beaten Graham twice, while Graham only has one win against Holtz)

As for this game specifically, it sure appears as if Holtz holds the upper hand this Thursday night. The Bulls are a perfect 4-0 and sport the 10th ranked offense in the nation. South Florida made their presence felt right out of the gate when they bolted to a 16-0 halftime lead at Notre Dame. Severe weather in the form of rain and lightning caused halftime to last 2 hours and 10 minutes but the Bulls managed to keep their heads and held on for a 23-20 win. It was not only a huge win for the South Florida program but also for Holtz, a Notre Dame graduate and son of former Irish head coach Lou Holtz, who led Notre Dame to its last national title in 1988.

Since that win the Bulls have been rarely been tested in games against Ball State (37-7), Florida A&M (70-17), and UTEP (52-24). As mentioned, the offense has been the story for South Florida and the main reason for that is quarterback B.J. Daniels. The junior signal caller is one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation and combined with weapons such as RB Darrell Scott and WR Sterling Griffin, can cause quite a headache for opposing defenses. Need proof? Just look at the stats: The Bulls average 45.5 points per game and Daniels has 1,071 passing yards with eight touchdown passes against just one interception.

Not that the South Florida defense is just along for the ride. The Bulls rank an impressive 26th on that side of the ball while they might lack a dominant force like DE George Selvie – now with the St. Louis Rams –they have plenty of talent on defense.

While the last three week haven’t really tested the Bulls, that figures to change against Pittsburgh. The Panthers are 2-2 and while neither win – Buffalo & Maine – has been impressive, both losses have been very close. Pitt led at Iowa by 17 with about 12 minutes left in the game but couldn’t hang on as the Hawkeyes rallied for a 31-27 win. After that heartbreaker, the Panthers came home to face Notre Dame and were leading with under seven minutes to go only to lose 15-12.

It’s certainly not a stretch to say the 2-2 Panthers could be the undefeated 4-0 Panthers with a few bounces of the ball. Thursday offers the opportunity to get the season on the right track for Pitt. To do so, Pitt will need much more consistent play from their offense (ranked 80th in the nation) and their defense (ranked 93rd in the nation).

Predictably, the offense flows through QB Tino Sunseri and if any one player needs a dose of consistency it’s the redshirt junior whose father Sal was an All-American at Pitt and is now the assistant head coach/linebackers coach at Alabama. Sunseri has been sharp at times but as his TD/interception ratio (4/4) would indicate, he has made his fair share of mistakes. Pitt seems best off when the offense runs through RB Ray Graham, who leads the team with six touchdowns, and Sunseri is not pressured to make throws.

It’s worth noting that South Florida went 3-4 in Big East play last year, dropping their first two games in conference play, while Pitt went 5-2 in 2010, including a 17-10 win at South Florida. Each team returns 13 starters this year and both QB’s are clearly experienced.

Head to head, Pitt has won three straight in the series (5-3 overall) and is 1-3 ATS this year. South Florida is 3-1 ATS in 2011.

Bonus Game:

Houston Cougars (-16) at UTEP Miners (CSTV, 8:00 p.m. ET)


The Cougars are 3-1 ATS in 2011
UTEP is 2-2 ATS in 2011
Averaging 446 passing yards a game, Houston has the #1 passing offense in the nation
The series is tied 4-4 but UTEP holds a 4-1 advantage in El Paso
Houston’s defense is ranked 72nd in the nation
The Cougars are 4-0 for the seventh time in school history
The Miners are 6-0 in Conference USA home openers
Houston QB Case Keenum has 1,311 yards and nine TDs against UTEP in four games
In last six games in this series, the Miners have scored 211 points (35.2 avg.), and the Cougars have scored 246 (41.0 avg.)
Houston RB Bryce Beal rushed for 195 yards against UTEP in 2010
UTEP starting QB Nick Lamaison has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury but could play this Thursday (check status)

[StarDust Bum]

Big 10 Report - Week 5

Wisconsin (-9.5) vs. Nebraska - 8:00 PM ET, ABC

UW: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS - Last week: vs. South Dakota St, W 59-10
UN: 4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS - Last week: at Wyoming, W 38-14

This is quite possibly the game of the year (and possibly a preview of the Big Ten Championship) for the Big Ten as two Top-10 teams matchup at Camp Randall. ESPN's College Gameday crew will be on hand as Nebraska plays its very first conference game as a member of the Big Ten. Wisconsin opened at -7, but that number quickly rose and now sits at -9.5.

Wisconsin has been the league's only consistently dominant team through four weeks, albeit against a fairly weak schedule. Wisconsin ranks 8th in total offense and 6th in scoring offense with QB Wilson completing 75.8% with 11 touchdowns and RB's White and Ball with 663 rush yards and 12 touchdowns combined. Defensively the Badgers are allowing just 247 yards per game (8th nationally) and 8.5 points per game (3rd). The competition level goes up significantly this week at home, where Wisconsin is 45-4 since the start at the 2004 season and 34-3 under coach Bielema. Those three teams to beat Wisconsin at home all went on to play in BCS Bowls.

The Huskers have been quite one-dimensional on offense thus far. QB Martinez and RB Burkhead have combined for 841 rush yards (7.6 YPC) and 14 touchdowns. But Martinez is completing just 50% of his passes with four touchdowns and two interceptions. The Huskers haven't needed an effective passing attack yet as their rushing game has been sufficient through four games. Nebraska's defense hasn't been as dominant as it was supposed to be this season as it ranks 52nd in total defense and 48th in scoring defense. However, the Huskers haven't been at full strength yet as three preseason All-American candidates - DT Crick, LB David, and CB Dennard - will all play together Saturday for the first time this season.

Something to consider: Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall - a run started with a 13-point win over then-No. 1 Ohio State at home last October.

Ohio State (-3) vs. Michigan State - 3:30 PM ET, ABC regional

OSU: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Colorado, W 37-17
MSU: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Central Michigan, W 45-7

The fact that both of these squads suffered non-conference losses makes this game more intriguing. The winner will get off to a strong start in conference play while the loser has more questions to answer. The Spartans have lost seven straight to the Buckeyes and haven't won in Columbus since 1998. Only one meeting has been decided by single digits and the average win margin for OSU is 18 points per game. OSU is a much different team this time around, yet is favored by 3 points at home. MSU has yet to register a quality win, but their defense has looked dominant. Not only are the Spartans limiting yards (1st in total defense) and points (9th in scoring defense), but they're making big plays, as they showed last week by intercepting CMU's QB four times. The Spartans are averaging 39 points per game at home, but scored just 13 points in their only road game so far (a 18-point loss to Notre Dame).

OSU ranks 91st in total offense and 69th in scoring offense. Freshman QB Braxton Miller got the first start of his young career last weekend. He completed just 5-of-13 passes for 83 yards, but had two touchdowns while also rushing for 83 yards. How he reacts against a Big Ten opponent will determine how well the Buckeyes perform on Saturday. OSU plays Michigan State, Nebraska and Illinois in its next three games, so a loss could send the Buckeyes reeling. Expect a big effort at home from OSU.

Something to consider: Michigan State is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog. Ohio State is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games (16-5 ATS as a home favorite).

Illinois (-8) vs. Northwestern - 12:00 PM, ESPN2

ILL: 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Western Michigan, W 23-20
NU: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS - Last week: BYE

Last year this game was played at Wrigley Field in November. Northwestern was off of a huge win vs. Iowa and was playing its first game without QB Persa (injured the previous week). Illinois netted 519 rush yards and won by 21 points. Prior to that game NU had won six of the previous eight meetings. Illinois opens as an 8.5 point favorite for this year's matchup.

Northwestern QB Persa should finally make his return for the Land of Lincoln Trophy showdown. How Persa performs in his first action since last November remains to be seen, but his presence alone should be a rousing factor for the Wildcats. Northwestern figures to be super motivated for this game: with Persa back, off of a loss with an extra week to prepare, and the fact that this is a rivalry game with a chance to knock Illinois off its pedestal.

Illinois had a flat performance against Western Michigan last week - understandable after a huge win against Arizona State the week prior - but found a way to remain unbeaten and at 4-0 for the first time since 1951 with a three-point victory. Illinois lost one 1st and one 2nd round talent from its 2010 defense. Still, the Illini rank 6th in rush yards allowed, 12th in total yards, and 13th in scoring defense.

Something to consider: Northwestern is just 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Big Ten games, but is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog. The Wildcats have also covered eight of the last 11 meetings against Illinois.

Michigan (-20) vs. Minnesota - 12:00 PM ET, Big Ten Network

Mich: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS - Last week: vs. San Diego State, W 28-7
Minn: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. North Dakota St, L 24-37

Minnesota is off of a terrible loss to North Dakota State and now has to play a team that has beaten it 19 of the previous 20 meetings (since 1987). Michigan has outscored Minnesota by 22 points per game in that 20 game span and only four games were decided by less than 10 points. Michigan was favored by 20+ points in seven of those games and was 6-1 ATS. Again the Wolverines are favored by 20 points heading into this weekend.

Minnesota fell to an FCS opponent for the second consecutive year and the third time in the past five seasons with its 13-point loss to North Dakota State last week. The Gophers now have a quarterback dilemma on their hands with Marqueis Gray and Max Shortell. Gray (50.6% with 3 TD & 3 INT) remains the starter, but freshman Shortell will see time.

The Wolverines are 4-0 for the third consecutive year after a 21-point win over head coach Brady Hoke's former team - San Diego State. QB Robinson again had a big game on the ground with 200 rush yards and three touchdowns, but his deficiencies in the passing game could come back to haunt UM. The defense continues to make strides, as it has now forced 17 turnovers in four games and is allowing just 13 PPG (11th nationally).

Something to consider: Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog. Michigan is just 3-23 ATS in its last 26 conference games.

Indiana (+16.5) vs. Penn State - 12:00 PM ET, ESPNU

IU: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: at North Texas, L 21-24
PSU: 3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS - Last week: vs. Eastern Michigan, W 34-6

Indiana fell behind 24-0 to winless North Texas last week before mounting a rally in the final minutes. UNT ranks at or near the bottom of every major offensive and defensive category and Indiana couldn't get a W. First-year coach Kevin Wilson still has a lot of questions heading into Big Ten play, most notably at quarterback. Wright-Baker has started every game thus far, but freshman Kiel remains neck-and-neck.

The Nittany Lions rank 8th nationally in total defense, 7th in passing defense, and 10th in scoring defense. However, this unit took a big hit last week as defensive captain and team leader LB Mauti tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season.

The Nittany Lions had their best offensive game of the season last week against Eastern Michigan when they tallied 468 yards and 34 points. Co-starting QB's McGloin and Bolden combined to complete 21-of-30 passes for 335 yards and four scores. Both could see some success against this Hoosier defense that allowed passing touchdowns of 17, 32, and 83 yards to North Texas last week.

Something to consider: Penn State has never lost to the Hoosiers with a 14-0 all-time record (average margin of victory 17 PPG). PSU is 6-0-1 ATS its last seven games as a double digit road favorite.

Purdue (+12) vs. Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

PU: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS - Last week: BYE
ND: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS - Last week: at Pittsburgh, W 15-12

The Boilers beat up on FCS Southeast Missouri State two weeks ago before spending the bye week preparing for Notre Dame. QB Marve returned after an ACL injury last season delayed his comeback. He completed 7-of-8 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown while splitting time with TerBush. TerBush will start against the Irish, but both will get playing time.

Purdue really needed that bye week to prepare for this, as QB Marve put it, "program defining game." Notre Dame is more battle-tested, having played three teams in the Top-25 so far. But this Irish offense has 15 turnovers through four games, and that most certainly cost them two wins. Purdue will need to convert on any forced turnovers to upset ND.

Something to consider: Purdue has lost three straight and is just 5-20 against the Irish since 1986. The Boilers have won four out of its last five games as a double digit home underdog and is 9-4-1 ATS its last 14 as a home 'dog.

Iowa - BYE

3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. UL Monroe, W 45-17

The Hawkeyes enter the bye week after an easy win against Louisiana-Monroe. QB Vandenberg has caught fire, tallying 1,095 pass yards with 10 TDs and only one INT through four games. Iowa will spend the off week preparing for a date with Penn State in Happy Valley

[StarDust Bum]

Utah St. at BYU

September 29, 2011

For the second time in as many weeks, Friday Night Lights takes us back to Provo and the home of the Brigham Young Cougars, who rallied to capture a 24-17 win over Central Florida as 1 ½-point home favorites last Friday.

This time around, the visitor will be Utah State, a program that has lost 15 consecutive road games at BYU.

Most books have installed BYU (2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) as a 7 ½-point favorite with a total of 51. Bettors can take Utah St. (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) to win outright for a plus-260 return (risk $100 to win $260).

Bronco Mendenhall’s team was coming off an embarrassing 54-10 home loss to arch-rival Utah when UCF came calling last week. The Knights drew first blood with a field goal early in the first quarter and had a 10-3 advantage at intermission.

Central Florida QB Jeff Godfrey ran for his second touchdown midway through the third quarter to put his team up by a 17-10 count. But the Cougars drew even again on the ensuing kickoff when Cody Hoffman found a seam and went 93 yards to paydirt.

BYU took the lead for the first time at the 10:29 mark of the final stanza thanks to a six-yard touchdown run by Bryan Kariya, who finished with 52 rushing yards on 14 carries. UCF was threatening for a tying score in the waning moments, but Godfrey made several terrible decisions that ruined the last-gasp drive.

BYU was out-yarded 399-260 by UCF, but the Cougars created three turnovers (two fumbles, one interception) and only committed one and that was the difference.

Utah St. nearly pulled a stunning upset in Week 1 when it faced the defending national champions on The Plains. The Aggies took a commanding 38-28 lead with a little more than three minutes remaining, but Auburn responded with a TD drive that cut the deficit to three at the two-minute mark.

From there, AU recovered an onside kick and marched down into the red zone. On a second-and-goal play with 50 ticks left, Michael Dyer plunged one yard to the goal line and the play was ruled a touchdown. However, video replays seemed to clearly indicate that Dyer came up short of the plane. Nevertheless, the call was not overturned and Auburn pulled out a fortunate 42-38 win.

But the Aggies easily took the cash as 23-point road underdogs.

Since then, Utah St. has demolished Weber St. 54-17 as a 14-point home ‘chalk.’ After an open date, Utah St. dropped a 35-34 double-overtime decision to Colorado St. last Saturday as a 13-point home favorite.

Andersen’s team had a 21-13 lead until the Rams scored a TD and converted a two-point conversion with 42 seconds remaining in regulation. After both teams matched TDs in the first extra session, Colorado St. went ahead 35-28 by scoring on its possession to start the second OT.

Utah St. answered on Robert Turbin’s fourth rushing touchdown of the night from 25 yards out. Sensing that his defense was tiring, Andersen opted to go for two and the win, but the conversion attempt came up short and CSU escaped Logan with an upset win.

Turbin rushed for 115 yards and four scores against the Rams. For the season, Turbin has rushed 64 times for 365 yards and eight TDs, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.

True freshman QB Chuckie Keeton has played well from the get-go. In his first start at Auburn, Keeton ran for a pair of TDs and threw for 213 yards without an interception. In fact, Keeton has yet to be picked off while completing 40-of-60 passes for two touchdowns.

As for BYU sophomore QB Jake Heaps, he has a mediocre 3/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Heaps has 855 passing yards, completing 55 percent of his throws to date.

Utah St. has been an incredibly lucrative team to support as a road underdog since Gary Andersen took over in 2008. The Aggies have cashed tickets at a 9-2 ATS clip in such spots since 2009. If we go all the way back to 2007, Utah St. is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games as a road ‘dog.

As a home favorite on Mendenhall’s watch, BYU owns a 17-13 spread record.

The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight head-to-head meetings between these in-state rivals. As for this year, the ‘over’ has hit in all three Utah St. games, while the ‘under’ is 3-1 for BYU.

Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Clemson owns a 4-1 spread record as a home underdog during Dabo Swinney’s four-year tenure.

--Here’s the stat line on Mike Locksley’s tenure as head coach at New Mexico: 2-26 overall record, one lawsuit for sex and age discrimination, one fight with an assistant coach who went on ESPN detailing Locksley’s violent temper tantrum, one recruit arrested in Locksley’s car for DUI while visiting campus and, at last, one pink slip before the end of September in his third season. What a legacy Locksley leaves behind in Albuquerque!

--Hot Seats:
1-Houston Nutt (Ole Miss)
2-Rick Neuheisel (UCLA)
3-Mark Richt (Georgia)
4-Neil Callaway (UAB)
5-Mike Stoops (Arizona)

--Florida hasn’t been a home underdog since the Ron Zook Era. To be exact, the Gators haven’t been catching points in Gainesville since 2003 when referee Jack Childress led FSU to a 38-34 win as a one-point favorite in The Swamp Swindle. UF is a four-point home ‘dog vs. Alabama on Saturday night.

--Alabama hasn’t won at The Swamp since 1999 when Shaun Alexander’s 25-yard TD run in overtime lifted the Tide to victory. This is an extremely misleading mention because ‘Bama has only played at UF once since ’99.

--This, however, is not a misleading factoid: Mississippi St. hasn’t prevailed between the hedges in Athens since 1956. The Bulldogs are seven-point ‘dogs Saturday at UGA.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, September 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

South Florida - 8:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +2.5 500

Pittsburgh - Under 51.5 500

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Houston -16.5 500

Texas El Paso - Over 66 500

[StarDust Bum]

Stanford Cardinal, UCLA Bruins Pac-12 Betting Preview

The Stanford Cardinal (3-0) are coming off a bye week and return home to face the UCLA Bruins (2-2). It's the second Pac-12 Conference game of the season for both teams, and kickoff from Palo Alto is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. (ET) on Saturday.

Stanford is currently sharing the No. 3 spot in the Don Best Linemakers Poll with the LSU Tigers, and the betting odds certainly reflect that ranking. Oddsmakers sent out the Cardinal as 21-point home favorites, but the number has fallen off by at least a half-point in most spots, while the total sits at 55.

The Cardinal will enter with the nation’s longest winning streak of 11 games, while fans have seen the team come away with 18 victories in its last 20 home games. Offensively, the squad is averaging 38.6 points a game over its last 19 contests inside Stanford Stadium, while allowing just 22.1.

Bettors may elect to back Stanford in the first half Saturday night, outscoring its last 16 opponents by a considerable 361-110 margin.

Quarterback Andrew Luck receives most of the media attention surrounding this team, as his .821 (23-5) winning percentage ranks second nationally behind Boise State’s Kellen Moore (.952; 40-2).

One concern that first-year head coach David Shaw will face Saturday is the program’s lack of success coming out of a bye week, posting a 6-9 SU mark in such contests since the 2000 campaign.

Bettors will find that the Cardinal have covered the last two meetings and the ‘under’ has cashed in eight of the last nine in the series.

UCLA leads Stanford 45-33-3 in a series that dates back to 1925, including a 19-19-2 mark in games played in the Bay Area. The Bruins dropped a 24-16 contest to the Cardinal as 5-point underdogs in their last visit in 2009.

Head coach Rick Neuheisel will lean heavily on a rushing attack that ranks second in the Pac-12 averaging 214 yards per game. The backfield of Derrick Coleman and Johnathan Franklin make up the only duo in the conference to rank in the top 10.

It could be a winning combination due to Stanford losing star linebacker Shayne Skov (knee) in its 37-10 win over Arizona as 9 ½-point road favorites on Sept. 17. The Cardinal lead the nation in rush defense, but that distinction will be severely tested this week.

The Bruins have suffered some ups and downs already this season, but last week’s 27-19 win over the Oregon State Beavers as 4 ½-point road underdogs could be a real jumping off point. UCLA has gone on to become bowl eligible the last seven times it has started the conference schedule in the win column.

Be cautious in backing the travelers in this contest, as they’ve dropped five of their last six games as road underdogs.

Weather forecasts suggest clear skies and game-time temperatures in the lower-60s.

[StarDust Bum]

Ball State Big 'Dogs On Road At Oklahoma Sooners

After two straight tough games, the Oklahoma Sooners finally get a breather with the Ball State Cardinals coming to town.

This is one of those games that sports betting makes so much more interesting. Ball State has little to no chance of beating Oklahoma outright, but as a 38-point underdog on the Don Best odds screen, the Cardinals do have a chance of covering the spread.

Kickoff from Memorial Stadium in Norman is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. (ET).

The USA Today Coaches Poll currently ranks Oklahoma at No. 1, but the Don Best Linemakers Poll is in line with the AP Poll, ranking them at No. 2. No matter where they are ranked, there is little doubt that the Sooners are among the nation’s elite.

Oklahoma (3-0) overcame an early 14-3 deficit to the Missouri Tigers at home last week to win 38-28, failing to cover the spread as a 19 ½-point favorite to fall to 2-1 ATS. The slow start was somewhat understandable coming off of the big road test the week before at Florida State.

Perhaps the most interesting side story in this game – and one that could play a big role in whether or not Oklahoma covers the spread – is the play of Landry Jones. The 6-foot-4 junior came into the year a Heisman trophy favorite, and while he has accumulated the yardage (1022 yards through three games), his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 5-to-4 isn’t nearly good enough.

Will Coach Bob Stoops pull Jones to protect him from injury once the Sooners take a comfortable lead, or will Jones use this game against a MAC opponent to pad his stats? That decision may be the difference in Ball State’s ATS chances.

Ball State (3-1) is actually off to a solid start this season, picking up upset wins against Indiana (as a 4 ½-point underdog) and Army (as a 4-point underdog).

Of course, both of those games were at home and against fairly weak opponents. In their only road game this season against a strong South Florida team, the Cardinals lost 37-7, failing to cover as a 20 ½-point underdog.

The Cardinals have averaged 27 ½ points per game this season, so they could feasibly score once or twice even on Oklahoma’s stingy defense. But in the end, this game will come down to how seriously Oklahoma takes it.

If the Sooners decide to pad Jones’ stats and pick up style points with a huge blowout win, Ball State won’t be able to do much to stop it. But with the Red River Rivalry against Texas coming up next week, Oklahoma may opt to pull the starters after taking the lead to stay fresh and healthy for that game, leaving the door open for the Cardinals to cover.

The ‘total’ for Saturday’s game is set at 60 ½. The ‘total’ has gone ‘under’ in six of Ball State’s last eight games on the road and five of Oklahoma’s last seven at home.

Weather should not affect this game with a nice evening in store. Clear skies in temps in the 70s are forecast for kickoff.