The Bum's Monday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

LA Dodgers Close Year At Arizona Diamondbacks

The Dodgers have dropped four of Hiroki Kuroda’s last five starts in Phoenix.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have already clinched the National League West Division, but remain focused on gaining home-field advantage in the NL Divisional round if they can catch the Milwaukee Brewers, who hold a one-game advantage.

Tuesday night's first pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers inside raucous Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 (ET).

Arizona entered this series off a three-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants, boosting its record to 42-27 versus the division. The club is in the final stretch of playing 28 of its final 31 games against such opponents, producing an 19-6 mark thus far.

The Diamondbacks hold a 9-6 series advantage over the Dodgers coming into the final three meetings of the season, including an even 3-3 mark at tonight’s venue.

Success since the All-Star break has directly led to the team’s run to the division title. The Diamondbacks lead all major league teams with 27 home wins since that point. Arizona is also one of three teams in the league that is undefeated when leading after eight innings, posting an 84-0 record, joined by the Boston Red Sox (75-0) and Detroit Tigers (79-0).

Outfielder Justin Upton could miss some time in the final games of the regular season after getting hit in the helmet by San Francisco’s hard-throwing Tim Lincecum on Sunday. Upton is listed as day-to-day.

Jarrod Parker is expected to make his first MLB start in this contest. The ninth overall pick of the 2007 draft underwent Tommy John surgery in 2009 and missed the entire 2010 season. It’s expected that he will be a serious candidate to join the starting rotation during the 2011 campaign.

Parker tallied an 11-8 record and 3.79 ERA at Double-A Mobile this year, helping to lead the squad to the Southern League championship.

Bettors will find that the Diamondbacks are 35-17 at home versus right-handed starters.

Los Angeles has plenty to play for in trying to end the season with a record above .500. The team has won seven of its last nine games and has gone 43-27 since July 7.

Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp is also getting plenty of media attention as he makes a run at the NL MVP award, while also staying in the conversation of possibly winning the Triple Crown. The All-Star entered the series tied with St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols with 37 home runs, leading the league RBIs, while sitting seven points behind Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun with a .324 batting average.

Hiroki Kuroda (13-16, 3.17 ERA) will make his 32nd start of the season, coming in off two consecutive home wins over the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants. He allowed four runs (three earned) and 10 hits over 13 innings over that span.

The right-hander has registered an even 7-7 mark and 3.05 ERA in 14 road starts, issuing 25 free passes and compiling 75 strikeouts.

Los Angeles is 1-4 in Kuroda’s last five road starts versus the Diamondbacks, while the ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five meetings overall in the desert.

With temperatures still reaching the century mark in Phoenix, the roof is likely to be closed at Chase Field for the entire series.

[StarDust Bum]

Texas Rangers, LA Angels MLB Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels likely need a sweep over the Texas Rangers when they start their 3-game home series on Monday night. This is the final series for each squad with the regular season ending Wednesday.

First pitch from Angel Stadium of Anaheim will be at 10:05 p.m. (ET), with the MLB odds to be released shortly at Don Best. The pitching matchup is Dan Haren versus C.J. Wilson, with both guys suffering minor injuries last time out.

Los Angeles (86-72) trails the Red Sox by 2.5 games and Tampa Bay by one for the AL wild card. That’s pending the Sunday results with the Angels 130 home favorites over Oakland, the freefalling Red Sox playing two at the Yankees and Tampa hosting Toronto.

The Angels made a run in the AL West with a 15-6 stretch that began in mid-August. However, they’re just 6-7 in their last 13 games and Texas was able to clinch the division last Friday night.

Haren (16-9, 3.16 ERA) went eight strong innings at Toronto last Wednesday, allowing just one run in a 7-2 win. He was hit by a liner on his non-throwing wrist on his final out recorded, but is listed as probable.

Haren has pitched mostly away this second half (9-of-14 starts). The Angels are 8-0 in his last eight at home (2.43 ERA). His last four home outings have been a tiny 2.10 ERA.

The ‘over’ is 8-2 in Haren’s last 10 starts overall, but most of that is due to solid run support (5.6 runs per game).

The 31-year-old right-hander has a 7.11 ERA against Texas this year, pitching poorly in two of three starts. The one at home was in July, getting roughed up for seven earned runs over 4 1/3 innings with the Angels still winning 9-8.

Texas (92-66) quietly has the second best record in the AL, but the defending pennant champ still isn’t getting a lot of national buzz. The team is 10-2 in its last 12 games, but manager Ron Washington has already started to rest some of his starting position players. That will certainly continue this series.

Wilson (16-7, 2.97 ERA) has done a great job inheriting the ace tag from Cliff Lee and has already been named Game 1 starter in the ALDS. The quality of the starters after him is a big postseason question.

The 30-year-old lefty had a blister during last Wednesday’s start at Oakland, but still allowed just two earned runs over six innings (3-2 win). Texas is 7-2 in his last nine starts and he’s been almost spotless in five September outings (1.27 ERA).

Wilson has averaged almost 114 pitches his last four starts, but will be on a much lower count for Monday. He’s 1-1 with a miniscule 0.60 ERA at the Angels this year and has a 2.81 ERA in five starts overall against them (Texas winning three).

Los Angeles is just 1-4 in its last five games against a lefty starter.

Texas leads the season series 9-7, including going 4-3 on the road. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall.

The Angels are 45-32 at home (+5.3 units), 19-10 in the second half. The ‘under’ is 6-1 in their last seven home games. The Rangers are just 41-37 away (+1.5 units).

Southern California weather should be beautiful, clear and in the 60s. The Angels will have Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana pitch on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Texas will counter with Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison.

[StarDust Bum]

Detroit Tigers Tune Up For Playoffs Vs Indians

The Detroit Tigers open up their final home series of the regular season Monday evening against the second-place Cleveland Indians. The game is scheduled to start at 7:05 p.m. (ET) from Comerica Park.

The Tigers have defeated the Indians seven straight times and nine of their last 12 going into this series Monday.

Starting for Cleveland will be the ace of the pitching staff, Ubaldo Jimenez (10-12, 4.52 overall and 4-3, 4.62 with Indians). The Indians are 5-5 in Ubaldo’s 10 starts since being traded from the Colorado Rockies at the end of July.

Jimenez has faced the Tigers three times as a Cleveland Indian and once as a member of the Rockies this season. Ubaldo is 2-2 in those four starts, with his most recent road start versus the Tigers being his worst start of the season by far (3 1/3 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 4 K).

Ubaldo is winless in three starts in his career at Comerica Park, allowing 15 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings with a WHIP of over two.

The Tigers' 3-4-5 hitters – Delmon Young, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez – are hitting a combined .404 career batting average (17-for-42) versus Jimenez.

Pitching for the Tigers in this American League Central series will be recently acquired right-handed starter Doug Fister (10-13, 2.94 overall and 7-1, 2.02 with Tigers). Fister was traded from the Seattle Mariners right before the trade deadline at the end of July.

Fister has won four consecutive starts dating back to September 1 and has not lost a start since August 14 at Baltimore. The Tigers have won eight of the 10 games in which Fister has started for them.

Fister has allowed only five walks and struck out a total of 48 batters in his last 62 1/3 innings pitched since the beginning of August.

Cleveland shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is questionable for Monday’s game versus the Tigers. Cabrera left Saturday’s game with a right elbow contusion. The Indians also lost outfielder Trevor Crowe for the remainder of the season just two days ago. Crowe left the September 24th game against the Twins with a shoulder strain.

The ‘over’ is 3-0 in Ubaldo’s last three starts overall, while the ‘under’ is 5-1 in Fister’s last six starts.

Monday’s weather forecast in the Motor City shows a high probability of scattered thunderstorms and an evening temperature in the low-50s.

[StarDust Bum]

NL Wild Card On Line For Braves Against Phillies

September 1 may not seem like a long time ago, and it wasn't in the grand scheme of things. But it probably feels like ancient history to the Atlanta Braves who are clinging to the National League Wild Card as the regular season schedule draws to a close.

Fredi Gonzalez's gang held an 8.5-game lead in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the Senior Circuit when play ended on Sept. 1. The Braves were 26-games above .500 (81-55) and seemed a cinch to be in the postseason. Then again, the Boston Red Sox looked to be a sure-thing for October baseball around the same time.

Atlanta will take a 1-game lead for the wild card into Monday's home series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies. The St. Louis Cardinals are just behind Gonzalez & Co., and will be in Houston the next three days.

Less than four weeks ago, the Braves looked to be a good bet to meet the Phillies in the NLCS. To even make the NLDS, Atlanta now has to figure out a way to beat Phils lefty Cliff Lee (21-10, 2.38) who started at -135 on Monday's MLB odds against Braves rookie Randall Delgado (4-2, 2.70).

The Game 1 total opened at seven runs at most early baseball betting shops.

This will be Lee's tune-up for the playoffs, with all signs pointing to him starting Game 2 of the NLDS next Sunday in Philadelphia. It's also his last chance to possibly impress NL Cy Young voters, though that's not a priority for Phils skipper Charlie Manuel who simply wants to get his second ace ready for postseason play.

Lee has proven to be human on the road with a 3.03 ERA in 13 starts. Philadelphia has won eight of those games, including the last five.

The southpaw has been just about unbeatable since the all-star break, posting a 1.71 ERA in 12 assignments and a WHIP just below one. Philadelphia is 10-2 in that span.

His lone start at Turner Field this year was in early April, and it wasn't pretty. Lee hit the showers after just 3 1/3 innings and having allowed six runs on 10 hits, a walk and a hit batsman. That game closed with Lee a slight 110 favorite.

It's the first career appearance vs. the Phillies for Delgado who is coming off consecutive wins over the Marlins. One came here in Atlanta and the other in Miami, the young right-hander tossing five innings in both and allowing just a single earned run in the two outings combined.

The opposition is only batting .214 against the young Panamanian who has a respectable 1.23 WHIP but just an 18:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his 30 innings.

Philadelphia enters the series with a 9-6 edge this season in meetings with the Braves. The clubs have split the six matchups, with this the first series at Turner Field since mid-May. The 'over' has a slight 3-2-1 lean in this park.

Game 1 of the series gets underway at 7:10 p.m. (ET). Afternoon showers and t-storms are in the Atlanta forecast but the chances taper off as the evening progresses. The thermometer will be in the upper-70s for first pitch with a 10-15 mph SSW wind (out to left-center).

Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels await the Braves in Games 2 and 3. Atlanta will turn to veterans Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson in those games, assuming Hudson will be necessary in the season finale. The way things are going for the Braves, he will be.

[StarDust Bum]

Rays make final playoff push hosting Yankees

NEW YORK YANKEES (97-62)

at TAMPA BAY RAYS (88-71)


First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -215, New York +195, Total: 8.5

The Rays remarkable September playoff push will come down to this three-game series against the division rival New York Yankees. Tampa was nine games back on September 4, and now finds itself one game back of the Wild Card-leading Red Sox with three games remaining.

The Yankees will send Hector Noesi (2-1, 4.14 ERA) to the mound on Monday night. Noesi made his first major-league start on Wednesday in which he threw 2.2 innings and allowed two runs on four hits. The youngster has appeared in four games against the Rays and holds an impressive 2.08 ERA against them. On the hill for the Rays is right-hander James Shields (15-12, 2.84 ERA). Despite Shields’ 1-3 record against the Yanks in 2011, he has been very effective, posting a 2.40 ERA and striking out 27 Yankees in 30 innings. Tampa has won 20 of its past 28 home games, and the Yankees are only 53-50 in night games. With the Yankees having nothing to play for and the Rays having everything in the world to play for, expect a solid start from James Shields and TAMPA BAY to get the home victory on Monday night.

The FoxSheets show another trend backing the Rays:

Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (145-80 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.4%, +47.5 units. Rating = 2*).

The young Dominican right-hander, Hector Noesi, has been a spot reliever all year, but will be asked to make his second start of his career on Monday night because Phil Hughes is still experiencing back problems. The Yankees have secured home field advantage through the ALCS and now will play the role of spoiler. With the division series opener beginning on Friday, it won’t be surprising if New York rests some of its key players. The Yankees have won six of eight and would love to keep that momentum going into the playoffs.

Shields will face the Yankees for his second consecutive start. He threw 7.1 innings on Wednesday, allowing four runs on six hits in a 4-2 loss to New York. Shields pitched well in the defeat, but was unable to get the run support he needed. The Rays have had their chances to overtake the Red Sox and finishing up against a Yankees team that has nothing to play for might be just what they need.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/25/11 13-*18-*1 41.94% -*3740 Detail
09/24/11 20-*14-*0 58.82% +*1980 Detail
09/23/11 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*4005 Detail
09/22/11 9-*11-*0 45.00% -*325 Detail
09/21/11 12-*16-*1 42.86% -*1045 Detail
09/20/11 15-*16-*1 48.39% +*850 Detail
09/19/11 9-*9-*1 50.00% +*520 Detail
09/18/11 17-*12-*1 58.62% +*2380 Detail
09/17/11 17-*11-*2 60.71% +*4220 Detail
09/16/11 13-*15-*1 46.43% -*2330 Detail
09/15/11 9-*8-*3 52.94% +*640 Detail
09/14/11 18-*9-*2 66.67% +*4020 Detail
09/13/11 15-*14-*1 51.72% +*1005 Detail
09/12/11 10-*12-*0 45.45% -*975 Detail
09/11/11 12-*18-*0 40.00% -*3165 Detail
09/10/11 16-*13-*1 55.17% +*1540 Detail
09/09/11 16-*14-*0 53.33% +*735 Detail
09/08/11 8-*10-*0 44.44% -*1695 Detail
09/07/11 10-*15-*0 40.00% -*3415 Detail
09/06/11 15-*14-*1 51.72% -*260 Detail
09/05/11 14-*18-*0 43.75% -*3005 Detail
09/04/11 15-*12-*2 55.56% +*1950 Detail
09/03/11 11-*17-*1 39.29% -*3080 Detail
09/02/11 15-*12-*1 55.56% +*1655 Detail
09/01/11 4-*6-*0 40.00% -*1590 Detail
Totals 329-*324-*20 50.38% +875

Monday, September 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +180 500
Baltimore - Over 9 500

Cleveland - 7:05 PM ET Detroit -144 500
Detroit - Under 8 500

NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -220 500
Tampa Bay - Under 8.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Philadelphia -138 500
Atlanta - Over 7 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET Florida -154 500
Florida - Under 7.5 500

Cincinnati - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets +106 500
NY Mets - Under 8.5 500

St. Louis - 8:05 PM ET Houston +136 500
Houston - Over 7.5 500

Toronto - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -129 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 8 500

Kansas City - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City -130 500
Minnesota - Over 9 500

Pittsburgh - 8:10 PM ET Milwaukee -195 500
Milwaukee - Under 7.5 500

LA Dodgers - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -166 500
Arizona - Over 8.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 10:05 PM ET San Diego -175 500
San Diego - Over 6.5 500

Texas - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -120 500
LA Angels - Over 7 500

Oakland - 10:10 PM ET Oakland -130 500
Seattle - Under 7 500

Colorado - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -125 500
San Francisco - Over 7 500

[electric monkey]

Not certain I understand what your picks are. Could you please explain what each pick means. bold type ?