NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (9/25 - 9/26)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Sunday, September 25 - Monday, September 26

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL odds: Week 3 opening line report

Analyst Andy Benoit of the New York Times wonders whether the NFL is a 30-team league.

After two weeks he’s dismissed the Chiefs and Colts. So has the betting public.

Have two division winners ever become pure fade material so quickly?

“For the first two weeks we couldn’t get a bet on Indy or Kansas City,” MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told ***********. “This Sunday it looks like we’ll be rooting for K.C. and Indy again. Probably going to be that way on a lot of Sundays.”

It goes without saying K.C. and Indy are a combined 0-4 SU and ATS.

The Chiefs’ downward spiral began with offensive coordinator Charlie Weis’ departure. It accelerated when the games started. Kansas City already lost three integral pieces to ACL injuries: safety Eric Berry, running back Jamaal Charles and tight end Tony Moeaki.

The Colts suffered the biggest sudden QB downgrade in history: Peyton Manning to a washed-up Kerry Collins.

With these dead-in-the-water teams facing public favorites this week in Pittsburgh and San Diego, the action figures to be heavily skewed again. No matter that Indy and K.C. are getting double digits.

“Over the long run if you take double-digits dogs in the NFL, you’re going to be ahead,” Stoneback said. “But geez, how is K.C. going to score? You get three TDs from San Diego and the way the K.C. offense is going, you’re going to cover. At this point they look like maybe a three-win team.”

Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook manager John Avello noted how rare it is for home teams to get double digits in the NFL; the Colts are getting 10.5 against the Steelers. And “the way K.C. is going,” he told ***********, “not too many people are interested in them.”

All of which leads us to the…

Biggest spreads of the week

Kansas City at San Diego (-14.5, 44.5), Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (10.5, 39.5)

Handicapper Steve Merril said the oddsmakers made quick adjustments on K.C. and Indy.

“It appears most of the value has been taken away,” Merril said, though he believes the public will keep fading those teams.
It would not be surprising to see the Steelers-Colts line go to 11.5.

“When you put the Colts up against a popular team like Pittsburgh, it’s going to be totally one-sided,” Stoneback said.

Smallest spreads of the week

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1, 45.5), San Francisco at Cincinnati (-1, 40.5), Miami at Cleveland (-1.5, 41)

Respect for the Bengals is rising. Before the season, bettors pounded the under on their season win total, pushing it from 7.5 to 6 (-140).

“People expected them to be terrible with a rookie QB,” Stoneback said. “Dalton’s played pretty well and they’re not as bad as people thought.”
Tampa Bay and Cleveland are favored only because they’re at home.

They’re among several middling teams it’s hard to get a read on.

“It’s hard to tell with some of these teams,” Stoneback said. “They haven’t really shown they’re really poor or they’re really good.”

Biggest totals of the week

Houston at New Orleans (-4, 53), Buffalo at New England (-9, 51.5)

The Saints are averaging 32 points. QB Drew Brees doesn’t need his top receiver to thrive. He’s making a star out of Devery Henderson and developing great timing with RB Darren Sproles, a major upgrade over Reggie Bush.

But even the Saints aren’t matching what the Bills and Pats are doing offensively. Buffalo is averaging 39.5 points with its new spread-oriented offense. New England has put up 36.5 points a game. For Tom Brady, 400 yards is the new 300.

“It doesn’t matter where the Patriots play – nobody’s stopping them,” Avello said.

Smallest total of the week

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (10.5, 39.5)

This is the only total under 40 as the NFL’s scoring binge continues.

Avello said this number is all about Indy’s impotence.

“I don’t know if the Steelers are that sharp yet; it might take them a few weeks to come around,” he said. “This is all based on the Colts offense.”

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 3

Miami at Cleveland
The Dolphins look to build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 games as a road underdog. Miami is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 25

Game 395-396: San Francisco at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 129.360; Cincinnati 130.918
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3); Over

Game 397-398: New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.779; Buffalo 131.035
Dunkel Line: New England by 9 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New England 8; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-8); Under

Game 399-400: Houston at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 137.228; New Orleans 142.532
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 4; 53
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-4); Over

Game 401-402: NY Giants at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.443; Philadelphia 139.204
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 9; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-7 1/2); Under

Game 403-404: Miami at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 127.760; Cleveland 127.653
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2 1/2); Over

Game 405-406: Denver at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 125.693; Tennessee 134.086
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 8 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-6 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 138.718; Minnesota 132.699
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6; 49
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Jacksonville at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 120.202; Carolina 125.310
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 5; 40
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3 1/2); Under

Game 411-412: Kansas City at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.764; San Diego 137.232
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: San Diego by 15; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+15); Under

Game 413-414: NY Jets at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 139.851; Oakland 132.635
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 7; 46
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-3); Over

Game 415-416: Baltimore at St. Louis (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.917; St. Louis 125.600
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 133.914; Tampa Bay 132.905
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Arizona at Seattle (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 123.927; Seattle 122.810
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3 1/2); Over

Game 421-422: Green Bay at Chicago (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 139.226; Chicago 134.909
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 4 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3 1/2); Under

Game 423-424: Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 137.757; Indianapolis 125.115
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10 1/2); Over


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 26

Game 425-426: Washington at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.548; Dallas 135.330
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 4; 40
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6 1/2); Under

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet


Sunday, September 25

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) at BUFFALO (2 - 0) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-65 ATS (+19.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-65 ATS (+19.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 138-104 ATS (+23.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (2 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (1 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 143-102 ATS (+30.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0 - 2) at CLEVELAND (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (1 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (2 - 0) at MINNESOTA (0 - 2) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
DETROIT is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 1) at CAROLINA (0 - 2) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (0 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (2 - 0) at OAKLAND (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 30-61 ATS (-37.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (1 - 1) at ST LOUIS (0 - 2) - 9/25/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (1 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (0 - 2) - 9/25/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 135-100 ATS (+25.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (1 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 2) - 9/25/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 26

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WASHINGTON (2 - 0) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 9/26/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 73-49 ATS (+19.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 3

Sunday, 9/25/2011

SAN FRANCISCO at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 11-1 Over Away after allowing 450+ total yds
CINCINNATI: 1-11 ATS as a favorite

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 16-3 Over in all games
BUFFALO: 29-9 ATS off win by 3 pts or less

HOUSTON at NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 6-0 Under on turf
NEW ORLEANS: 14-28 ATS in 2nd of BB Home games

NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 0-4 ATS vs. Philadelphia
PHILADELPHIA: 11-2 Under after scoring & allowing 30+ pts last game

MIAMI at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 13-28 ATS off BB home games
CLEVELAND: 20-7 Under as home fave of 3 pts or less

DENVER at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 22-10 Over after allowing 300+ yds passing
TENNESSEE: 12-28 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

DETROIT at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 3-14 ATS as road favorite
MINNESOTA: 2-9 ATS as an underdog

JACKSONVILLE at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 11-2 ATS after scoring 6 pts or less
CAROLINA: 8-0 Under as home favorite

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO, 4:05 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 10-2 ATS as double digit underdog
SAN DIEGO: 2-6 ATS in September

NY JETS at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
NY JETS: 2-11 ATS off BB home wins
OAKLAND: 6-0 Over at home vs. AFC

BALTIMORE at ST LOUIS, 4:05 PM ET
BALTIMORE: 7-0 ATS after being outgained by 200+ yds
ST LOUIS: 41-24 Over vs. AFC

ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY, 4:15 PM ET
ATLANTA: 27-8 ATS Away after allowing 400+ yds
TAMPA BAY: 0-8 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

ARIZONA at SEATTLE, 4:15 PM ET
ARIZONA: 16-5 Under as road favorite
SEATTLE: 7-19 ATS as underdog

GREEN BAY at CHICAGO, 4:15 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 6-0 Under as a road favorite of 7 points or less
CHICAGO: 16-5 Under as an underdog

PITTSBURGH at INDIANAPOLIS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
PITTSBURGH: 12-3 ATS if the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
INDIANAPOLIS: 23-39 ATS at home off SU loss

Monday, 9/26/2011

WASHINGTON at DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
WASHINGTON: 33-14 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
DALLAS: 11-0 Over on turf

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 3

49ers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)-- Since 1988, Week 3 road underdogs who played their first two games at home are 34-22-1 vs spread; 49ers were +4 in turnovers the first two games, and won field position by 16-7 yards- their special teams are improved. Week 3 home favorites who played first two games on road are 15-33 vs spread. Bengals didn't turn ball over (+3) in first two games, starting six drives in enemy territory; since 2007, they're 5-19 as a favorite, since 2008, 1-9 as home favorite. Cincy is 11-18 coming off a loss; since '06, they're 7-13-1 as favorite of 3 or less points. Niners were 12-4-2 vs spread coming off a loss uner Singletary; they're 3-11 in last 14 games decided by 7 or less points, 1-8-1 in last 10 games as an underdog of 3 or less points.

Patriots (2-0) @ Bills (2-0)-- New England is 20-1 in last 21 series games, with seven straight wins here by an average score of 30-8; Bills scored 10 points or less in seven of last nine series games, but this Buffalo team has started season on a roll, scoring 79 points (10 TDs on 24 drives, eight TDs, two FGs in 10 red zone trips). Patriots have nine TDs on 21 drives, six of which were 78+ yards; they've covered 23 of last 31 as a single digit favorite, are 27-13 in last 40 games as a road favorite. Belichick is 45-18-1 vs spread in his last 64 games on foreign soil. Since '03, home dogs are 20-27 vs spread in AFC East divisional games. Since '08, Buffalo is 2-8-1 as a home dog; they're 1-5 vs spread in last six home games vs divisional rivals. Huge game for Buffalo's credibility.

Texans (2-0) @ Saints (1-1)-- Houston is much-improved, with good balance on offense (305 rushing yards, 424 passing) and solid defense (allowed 5.1/4.8 ypa), but will be sorely tested by Saints squad that covered nine of last 12 vs AFC teams, and is 12-8-1 in last 21 games as single digit favorite. Brees got the first down on 17 of 31 3rd down plays so far in '11; Saints are 9-4 last thirteen games decided by 7 or less points. Houston is 13-18-1 in last 32 games as road dog, 4-8-1 coming off win, 10-15-3 vs NFC teams. Phillips' defense has allowed only five first downs on 21 3rd down plays; he used to work for Saints when his dad was their coach. Home side won both series games, with Texans losing 31-10 here in '03. Dare I say potential Super Bowl matchup?

Giants (1-1) @ Eagles (1-1)—Health of Vick key issue here; as I type this, he is expected to play. Philly won last six series games, with average total in last four 63.3. Giants lost last two visits here 40-17/27-17- they were dumped from playoff contention LY by big Eagle comeback highlighted by Jackson’s PR for TD. Philly is just 2-7 vs spread in last nine games as divisional home favorites (10-1 in non-division); since ’07, they’re 15-9 coming off a loss. Giants are 24-15 coming off a win, 25-16 in last 41 road games, but they’re 3-5 in last eight games as road dog and lost at Washington in road opener two weeks ago. Big Blue has been outscored 24-7 in second half this year, has converted just 6-25 on 3rd down but they do have four TDs in five red zone trips. Eagles have nine sacks in two games; four of six TDs they allowed came on drives shorter than 50 yards; this is their first home game- Week 3 home favorites that played first two games on road are 15-33 vs spread.

Dolphins (0-2) @ Browns (1-1)—Miami defense allowed Brady/Schaub to complete 68.8% of passes in pair of home losses, now major drop down in class vs McCoy; Fish have only four TDs, two FGs in 10 red zone drives, need more production there. Dolphins are 17-7 vs spread on road under Sparano, 18-8-2 as road dog, 8-5 as dog of 3 or less points. Since ’04, fish are 21-9-1 as road dog in non-divisional games, but they’re also 19-32-1 since ’05 when coming off a loss. Since 2008, Browns are 10-15 vs spread at home, 2-7 when favored; they’re 9-14 in games decided by 7 or less points (Miami is 17-10). Cleveland is 13-9 as favorite of 3 or less points, 14-8 coming off win. In two games so far, Browns have 14 penalties for 121 yards, their opponents 7 for 43. Since 1988 (excluding 2001) Week 3 road underdogs that played first two games at home are 34-22-1 vs spread. Miami lost last three series games, losing two visits here, 22-0/41-31, with last visit in ’07.

Broncos (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)—Surprising that Tennessee holding its own so far despite running ball 42 times for 117 only yards; you expect more from team with Johnson at RB and former star lineman as head coach. Titans allowed only two TDs on 21 drives so far, with no TDs allowed in second half; they’ve allowed only three FGs in three red zone drives in splitting games with Jags/Ravens. Titans are 7-12 in last 19 games as non-divisional home favorite, 2-6 in last eight games as single digit fave, but they’re 23-18-1 coming off a win. Denver allowed 23-22 points in splitting pair of home games despite foes converting just 6-25 on 3rd down; Broncos are 9-15 as road dog, 11-23-1 coming off win; since ’07, they’re 12-20 vs spread on road.. Denver won five of last six series games, with last loss in ’95 to Oilers in Houston; Broncos won two visits here, 37-16/26-20. Average total in last 10 games between these old AFL rivals is 52.7. Week 3 road underdogs that played first two games at home are 34-22-1 vs spread.

Lions (2-0) @ Vikings (0-2)—Upstart Lions battling historical demons here, having lost 13 in row at this site, with five of last six losses here by 9+ points; they’re 3-20 in last 23 series games overall. Since 1997, Detroit is 0-7 as road favorite, with last cover coming in Tampa in ’96 under Wayne Fontes, but Vikings are 9-15-2 in last 26 games as underdog, 2-7 in last nine as home dog. Lions have nine TDs on 25 drives; Stafford has thrown 73 passes and hasn’t been sacked yet. Detroit has now won last six games that counted, covering six in row coming off win and last four when favored- they’re already +6 in turnovers, with 8 takeaways in two games. Minnesota led Bucs 17-0 at half in home opener last week, lost 24-20; they’ve been outscored 41-3 in second half of first two games- opponents converted 13 of 25 on 3rd down. Vikings have been penalized 143 yards in two games, almost twice as much (79) as their opponents. Since ’05, Minnesota is 15-26-3 as single digit dog.

Jaguars (1-1) @ Panthers (0-2)-- Carolina has 807 passing yards, 145 running as rookie QB Newton has done unexpectedly well, with all five TD drives 74+ yards, but defense allowed Kolb/Rodgers 10.2/9.5 ypa-- McCown will be less formidable a foe here. Jaguars scored only one offensive TD on 22 drives so far in 2011, despite outrushing foes 275-144- they've been outscored 31-6 in 2nd half of games. Panthers are 11-6-2 in last 19 games as favorite, 18-7 in last 25 games coming off a win, but the last 8+ years, they're 26-36-3 vs spread at home. Last 7+ years, Jaguars are 19-10-1 as road dog, but they're 9-16 coming off a loss. Home side won three of last four series games, with last two played here decided by total of 3 points. Average total in last three series games, 44.

Jets (2-0) @ Raiders (1-1)—Oakland blew 21-3 halftime lead in Buffalo last week, or else they’d be 2-0 heading into home opener; they outscored first two opponents 37-3 in first half, but got outscored 52-21 after halftime, with both games decided by a FG. As usual, Silver/Black have been flagged a lot (216 penalty yards in two games), to point where Jackson is bringing in refs during week to call penalties in practice. Jets have seven takeaways in two games (+3); they’re 6-2 as road favorite under Rex Ryan, and 17-11 in game following their last 28 wins. Gang Green is 23-16 in last 39 road games, 13-10 as a favorite, 11-8 as single digit favorite. Since ’03, Raiders are 21-41-1 vs spread at home, but they’re 6-5 in last 11 games as home dog, after being 9-19-1 from ’03-’08. Oakland is Jets won four of last five series games, winning 38-0 in last visit here two years ago. Last two years, AFC East road favorites are 8-3 vs spread in non-division games.

Chiefs (0-2) @ Chargers (1-1)—Slow-starting San Diego trailed first two games by 10-13 points at half, hard to lay 14+ points with unreliable team; they held Minnesota to 28 passing yards in Week 1 and still didn’t cover (won 24-17, -8.5). Kansas City lost first two games 41-7/48-3 to Bills/Lions, going -7 in turnovers, losing field position by 23/21 yards; they’ve allowed 55 points on 10 opponent drives (out of 27) that started in their territory. Last 7+ years, San Diego is 22-10-3 in game following a loss; they were -4 in turnovers in losing winnable game at Foxboro last week. Chargers won six of last seven series games, with Chiefs losing last three visits here by 1-29-31 points (74-14 last two years). Since ’06, Bolts are 5-7 as double digit favorite; Chiefs are 6-8 in last 14 games as road underdog, but 8-3 in last 11 games as double digit dog. San Diego is 11-5-1 in last 17 games as home favorite in a divisional game. Chiefs have nine turnovers (-7) in two games, are just 5-24 on 3rd down.

Ravens (1-1) @ Rams (0-2)—St Louis on short work week after poor showing on Monday night (first MNF game in five years); young players are making critical mistakes causing turnovers- Rams are only team to give up a defensive score in both games this season. Baltimore gave up 358 passing yards in Nashville last week, which gives Bradford hope; St Louis outgained Giants 367-300 Monday, but they’ve lost last 39 games where they lost turnover margin, so mistakes must be eliminated. Ravens are 15-17 in last 32 games decided by 7 or less points- since ’08 they’re 5-4 as a road favorite, after being 0-8 in such role from ’05-’07. Last three years, they’re 9-7 in game following a loss. Home team won last four series games, with Ravens losing last two visits here by 15-11 points. St Louis coaches made poor game management decisions last week, causing loyalists to doubt their competence. Ravens have AFC showdown with Jets on deck, making this a legitimate trap game for them.

Falcons (1-1) @ Buccaneers (1-1)—Atlanta is 17-6 under Smith in games decided by 7 or less points; they’re 14-6-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points, but they’ve allowed 61 points in first two games this year, and would be 0-2 had Vick not been KO’d last Sunday night. Falcons won last five series games, with three of five decided by 4 or less points; Atlanta won last two visits here, 20-10/28-24- average total in their last five visits here is 35.6. Tampa Bay is 3-13-1 vs spread at home under Morris, as road team is 26-6-2 in Morris regime after Bucs rallied to win 24-20 last week at Minnesota, after being down 17-0 at half. Falcons started 16 of 25 drives 80+ yards from goal line; they’ve averaged 5.3/5.6 ypa, in part because Ryan has already been sacked nine times. Tampa has only two TDs, three FGs in seven red zone drives-they’re 18-12 in game following their last 30 wins, Falcons are 12-8 in last 20. Last three years, Bucs are 6-9-3 in games where spread was 3 or less points.

Cardinals (1-1) @ Seahawks (0-2)—Arizona defense allowed 932 yards in first two games to Newton/Grossman, but they’ve only allowed three TDs, three FGs in nine red zone trips- all five TDs they’ve allowed have been on drives of 73+ yards. Seattle won both series games LY, 22-10/36-18, first time in three years they beat Arizona here, but QB tables have been turned, with Arizona now having far superior signal-caller (Kolb over Jackson). Seahawks lost first two games 33-17/24-0, getting outscored 33-0 in first half, giving up 10 sacks while running ball 35 times for 95 yards (2.7) so OL is big concern, especially with Gallery out. Last 3+ years, Seattle is 4-7 in games decided by 7 or less points, Arizona 10-8. Redbirds are 5-2 in last seven games as road favorite. Since 1988, Week 3 home underdogs who played first two games on road are 5-11 vs spread. Last 4+ years, home underdogs are 8-12 vs spread in NFC West divisional games.

Packers (2-0) @ Bears (1-1)—Over last seven years, Chicago is 6-1 vs spread as home underdog in divisional games, but Green Bay won four of last five in this ancient rivalry, with average total in last six meetings 32.2; Pack won two of last three visits here, including win eight months ago in NFC title game. Pack scored 72 points in first two games (eight TDs on 19 drives, only one less than 76 yards), but they’ve also given up 800 passing yards in two games (Brees/Newton). Over last 3+ years, Packers are just 8-16 in games decided by 7 or less points- over last 5+ years, they’re 26-13-1 vs spread in last 40 road games. Since ’05, Chicago is 10-6 as home underdog; Packers are 14-10-1 in last 25 games as road favorite. Vutler has been sacked 11 times in two games, as loss of C Kreutz (to Saints) takes its toll on Bears’ OL; they’ve gone 3-out on 13 of 25 drives, converting only 8 of 28 on 3rd down, which has hurt their field position (-2/-12 in two games).

Steelers (1-1) @ Colts (0-2)—Pittsburgh won 14 of last 17 games in seldom-played (recently) series, splitting four visits to Indy. This is only fifth time teams have met since ’98, Manning’s rookie year. Steelers don’t have takeaway yet (-7); they’ve gone 3-out on nine of 19 drives as Roethlisberger still appears hampered by offseason foot injury. Of Pitt’s four TDs this year, only one was a drive longer than 68 yards. Dreadful Indy has two TDs, nine 3-outs on 22 drives with newly-signed Collins (35-69) at QB; they’re just 5-23 on 3rd down, have lost field position by 5-20 yards in losses by 27-9 points. Colts have only two TDs, two FGs in six red zone drives. Steelers are 19-22 vs spread on road last 5+ years, 11-16 in last 27 games as road favorite, 5-12 as non-divisional road fave, 21-25-1 in game following a win. Since 2002, Pittsburgh is 6-13 as double digit favorite. Colts are 7-17 vs spread in game following their last 24 losses.

Redskins (2-0) @ Cowboys (1-1)—Romo showed major guts in leading comeback win last week with busted rib/punctured lung, now he faces rival Redskins in Dallas home opener. Since 2004, Dallas is 4-12-1 vs spread as home favorite in divisional games. Cowboys won four of last five in series, with three of four wins by 4 or less points. Redskins lost four of last five visits to this site, with only one loss by more than five points. Four of last five series totals were 24 or less. Dallas is 9-12 in last 21 games as home favorites; they’re 9-7 in games following a win. Redskin defense allowed only 4-19 conversions on 3rd down, as Washington won field position in both wins, by 7-8 yards; they’ve got seven sacks and had defensive TD that put them ahead against Giants. Since 1988, Week 3 home favorites who played on road first two weeks are 15-33 vs spread; Week 3 road underdogs who played first two games at home are 34-22-1. One-dimensional Cowboys have 753 passing yards, only 109 on the ground.

[Udog]

NFL


Week 3

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Trend Report
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Sunday, September 25

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. TENNESSEE
Denver is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
Denver is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games at home
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. NEW ORLEANS
Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Minnesota
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CINCINNATI
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing San Francisco
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. CAROLINA
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Carolina's last 13 games at home
Carolina is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CLEVELAND
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Cleveland's last 13 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England

4:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN DIEGO
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 11 of the NY Jets last 12 games on the road
NY Jets are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games on the road
Oakland is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games

4:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 14 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Seattle's last 13 games
Seattle is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games

4:15 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
Green Bay is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay

4:15 PM
ATLANTA vs. TAMPA BAY
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Atlanta

8:20 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh
Indianapolis is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh

Monday, September 26

8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home


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[Udog]

NFL


Week 3

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 3
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We’re through two weeks of the NFL season, and what’s already clear is that this year will be predictably unpredictable – except maybe for Tom Brady and the Patriots. On to Week 3 of the NFL poolies' cheat sheet:

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

Why 49ers cover: Call them resourceful. The Niners led the favored Cowboys almost the entire game last week despite getting outgained by a mile. San Fran ultimately lost in OT, but Cincinnati is no Dallas. Niners 11-4-3 ATS last 18 after a non-cover; Bengals 6-21 ATS last 27 as chalk.

Why Bengals cover: Cincy has beaten spread five straight times; San Fran 1-4 ATS last five on road. Rookie QB Andy Dalton was solid in close loss at Denver and will finally have fans behind him, in Cincy’s home opener.

Total (40.5): Both San Fran and Cincy have gone over total in both games this year, and over has hit in four straight for Niners. Bengals on 4-1 over run at home.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Indians (-1.5)

Why Dolphins cover: Because they get to leave Miami. Fish have cashed eight of last 10 on road and nine of last 11 as a road pup. Cleveland on five-game ATS dive at home.

Why Browns cover: Have grabbed the cash in last four meetings with Miami. Dolphins also 5-15-2 ATS last 22 in September.

Total (41): Over 5-1 in Cleveland’s last six at home, but under 6-2 in Miami’s last eight on highway.

New England Patriots (-9) at Buffalo Bills

Why Patriots cover: Uh, they have Tom Brady. Does that about cover it? If not, well, Brady & Co. own Bills ATS, going 7-2 last nine overall (all as chalk) and 5-0 last five in Buffalo. In fact, visitor has cashed last five.

Why Bills cover: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Harvard, 2005) less talented than Brady, but had higher ACT score. Buffalo 7-3 ATS last 10 inside AFC.

Total (53): Can total be set high enough for high-flying Pats? Over 18-3 in New England’s last 21 overall.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-X)

Why Giants cover: Not facing Michael Vick would help, but status of Eagles QB still uncertain. Underdog 11-2 ATS last 13 meetings, road team 9-3 ATS last dozen meetings.

Why Eagles cover: Because they control Tom Coughlin and Co., having bagged last six SU and ATS. Giants QB Eli Manning hardly gave inspired Monday night performance vs. Rams, even in victory.

Total (XX): Philly gets ball up and down field all day long, scoring 31 in each of first two games. Over 11-4 in Eagles’ last 15 overall, and over 10-3 in Giants’ last 13 NFC East tilts.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Why Lions cover: Detroit a favorite on road for first time in, well, a long time. Preseason may not count in standings, but it does at betting window: Lions are 10-0 SU and ATS last 10 times they’ve taken field.

Why Vikings cover: More a Detroit negative than a Minnesota positive, as Lions on 0-8 ATS purge as road favorite, as rare as that role may be.

Total (45.5): Under has hit last six in this rivalry.

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-4)

Why Texans cover: Cashed in four of past five September starts. QB Matt Schaub and wideout Andre Johnson remain a big-time combination.

Why Saints cover: QB Drew Brees has already faced two playoff teams in first two weeks (Packers, Bears), and he’s been sterling, with six TDs, no picks and no fumbles. New Orleans 4-1 ATS last five at home dome; Houston 1-6 ATS last seven getting points.

Total (53): Both offenses have ability to put up points. Over on 6-0 run with Houston as a pup. Still, under 4-1 in New Orleans’ last five at home.

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-7)

Why Broncos cover: Compelling reasons hard to find for Denver, which has been one of worst teams in league ATS the past few years. But Titans just 3-9 ATS last dozen following a SU win.

Why Titans cover: After weak effort in opener vs. Jaguars, Tennessee took down powerhouse Ravens in Week 2 as 5.5-point home underdog. Titans 12-4 ATS last 16 in September. RB Chris Johnson due for breakout, and Denver just the cure – Broncs 28th vs. rush (131.0 ypg).

Total (42): Over hit in last four Broncos-Titans meetings, nine of Denver’s last 12 roadies and nine of Tennessee’s last 12 at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Why Jaguars cover: Cam Newton’s play is shadowing an ugly spot in Carolina’s game: Its defense. The Panthers are giving up 406.5 yards per game.

Why Panthers cover: Jags will also start rookie in Blaine Gabbert, after Luke McCown put up a whopping 1.8 QB rating vs. Jets last week, throwing four INTs. Newton, though mistake-prone, has looked good, racking up more than 400 yards in each of first two starts.

Total (43): Under 7-0 in Panthers’ last seven laying points, but over 8-2 in Jags’ last 10 road games.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-14.5)

Why Chiefs cover: Seriously? Well. K.C. is 10-2 ATS the last 12 times it was catching more than 10 points. And Chiefs could be catching double digits a lot this year.

Why Chargers cover: Chiefs are flat-out awful. In fact, to call them awful might be an insult to all that is awful. K.C. has been outscored 89-10 over first two weeks – by Buffalo and Detroit.

Total (45.5): Under has hit in five straight at home for San Diego.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at St. Louis Rams

Why Ravens cover: Should be fuming after mustering just 13 points in road loss to Titans. St. Louis 1-5 ATS last six overall. Rams find red zone a dead zone – three drives inside 10-yard line vs. Giants yielded only FGs.

Why Rams cover: QB Sam Bradford, in second year, clearly has tools to be standout NFL starter. St. Louis a fair bounce-back bet, at 8-3 ATS last 11 after non-cover.

Total (41.5): Over has been play in four straight when Ravens coming off SU loss.

New York Jets (-3.5) at Oakland Raiders

Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan’s troops on bundle of positive ATS streaks, including 12-5 on highway and 6-1 as road chalk.

Why Raiders cover: Oakland has covered both games this year and should be 2-0 SU, but imploded after taking 21-3 lead vs. Bills last week. Running game, behind Darren McFadden, racking up 160.5 ypg, which could help keep Jets off field.

Total (41): Lots of trends point to the over. Jets on 15-5-1 over surge in last 21 roadies. Over has hit in five of last six overall for Oakland and four straight Raiders home games.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Seattle Seahawks

Why Cardinals cover: Seahawks think Tarvaris Jackson is NFL-caliber starting QB. Or maybe Pete Carroll is trying to boost chances in Andrew Luck sweepstakes come next year’s draft.

Why Seahawks cover: Seattle gets comforts of home stadium, after spending first two weeks losing SU and ATS on road. Home team 7-3 ATS last 10 in this rivalry. Cards failed to cash in last five NFC West outings and are 3-9 ATS last 12 on road.

Total (43): In this division rivalry, over 10-4 in last 14 meetings, but under hit four of last five in Seattle.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

Why Packers cover: Defending Super Bowl champs know this field well – they beat Chicago 21-14 in last season’s NFC title game at Soldier Field. In fact, Pack has been solid bet on last 13 trips to Windy City, going 10-3 ATS.

Why Bears cover: Big-time revenge game, not just for Chicago as a team, but for QB Jay Cutler, who took heavy ridicule after leaving NFC title game with injury.

Total (45.5): These two teams play-low scoring games when they square off. Total has gone low in seven straight Pack-Bears affairs and has been the play in four straight at Soldier Field.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Why Falcons cover: QB Matt Ryan back on track, coming off career-high four-TD performance in win vs. Eagles. Bucs 5-17 ATS last 22 at home. Road team scored ATS win in last five Falcons-Bucs tilts.

Why Buccaneers cover: QB Josh Freeman & Co. Can ill-afford to drop first two home games. In this NFC South rivalry, chalk 7-3 ATS last 10, and Tampa 6-2 ATS last eight.

Total (45.5): Under 8-3 in Bucs’ last eight division contests, but over 5-0-1 in Falcons’ last six roadies.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Why Steelers cover: No Peyton Manning. Indy a shell of itself without four-time MVP quarterback. Pittsburgh has covered five straight from favorite’s role, and Indy 1-6 ATS last seven at home dome.

Why Colts cover: A 10.5-point home dog? That’s a lot of points, even without Manning, and Colts are 9-2 ATS last 11 catching more than 10 points – though they’re almost never pups of that magnitude.

Total (39.5): Over 5-1 in Steelers’ last six overall and in Colts’ last six following pointspread loss.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-X)

Why Redskins cover: Washington expected to finish last in NFC East, yet off to 2-0 SU and ATS start. QB Rex Grossman actually looks serviceable – about as ringing an endorsement as can be given. Dallas 1-5 ATS last six Monday nighters; Redskins on 4-0 ATS run vs. Dallas.

Why Cowboys cover: Romo tough to keep down, playing with aforementioned injuries in OT win at San Francisco. And Cowboys finally get game in front of home fans, after spending first two weeks on road. Washington 0-4 ATS in last four Monday nighters.

Total (XX): The dome that Jerry Jones built seems to produce plenty of points. Over has hit nine straight at Cowboys Stadium.


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[Udog]

NFL


Week 3

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NFL betting weather report: Week 3
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Your NFL handicapping isn’t done until you look to the skies. Here’s how weather will be impacting your NFL bets in Week 3:

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7, 53.5)

Rain is in the forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium when the Bills test their 2-0 record versus the Patriots. Clouds are expected to move in after kickoff and soak this AFC East rivalry in the latter part of the game. There’s a 33 percent chances of showers for Orchard Park.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 42.5)

There’s a 25 percent chance of showers in Carolina Sunday. The Panthers have climbed from -3 to as high as -4 and the total is also on the rise, going from 41 points to 43 at some books.

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 40.5)

Rain could hit Cincinnati Sunday, with a 25 percent chance of the wet stuff at Paul Brown Stadium. The total for this NFC-AFC clash has remained steady between 40.5 and 41 at most markets.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-1.5, 41.5)

Ohio’s other team is in for some bad weather as well. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Cleveland Sunday, with early showers turning the thunder and lightning later in the game. There’s a 38 percent chance of showers.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 48)

This NFC East grudge match will be wet and wild, which could slow down the speedy Eagles offense. Showers at kickoff will give way to possible thunderstorms, with a 60 percent chance of showers for Lincoln Financial Field.

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-6.5, 42.5)

Early rain showers could give way to possible thunderstorms by halftime in Nashville Sunday. There’s a 25 percent chance of rain and winds reaching into the mid teens, blowing South downfield.

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (+3.5, 41.5)

There’s a 25 percent chance of rain in the Bay Area for Sunday. Rain will dampen the majority of this game, giving way to cloudy skies late in the fourth quarter. The total for this matchup has dropped from 42 to 41.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3.5, 45.5)

This NFC North rivalry could be battling in the rain at Soldier Field Sunday. There’s a 70 percent chance of rain and possible thunderstorms for Chicago, including game-time temperatures in the low 60s


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[Udog]

NFL


Week 3

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Total Bias: NFL Week 3 over/under picks
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Once upon a time, key duties on an NFL rookie quarterback’s resume included Gatorade chemist, clipboard manager and bubble gum dispensary.

Sure, there were exceptions to the rule along the way. Peyton Manning took hits and threw picks in all 16 games as a rook back in 1998, don’t forget, but that was different. He was the Peyton Manning - the same guy who told Colts owner Jim Irsay that he’d kick his team’s ass for the next 15 years if he didn’t draft him first overall.

In the vast majority of cases, being a freshman quarterback entitled you to at least 16 games of sideline skirt gawking while you got your footing in the league.

Well, the times they are a-changin’.

No fewer than three rookie QBs are scheduled to start this week as their respective teams hope to fast forward the dreaded “rebuilding phase,” firing their freshmen into the fire to see if they can stand the heat.

So far the results have been good. Andy Dalton is turning a few heads on another terrible Bengals team, and of course, Cam Newton has put up Techmo Bowl numbers in his first two starts with the Panthers.

Now, the Jacksonville Jaguars hope Blaine Gabbert can do the same when they hook up with the Panthers in the Rookie Bowl Sunday (no pressure, right?).

Personally, I’m all for this new idea of letting the kids play if they can actually play instead of wasting a couple productive years because of veteran loyalty (here’s to you, Aaron Rogers).

The football world, through training development and better coaching and scouting, has accelerated to the point that some of these young players belong in the NFL game as soon as they get out of college.

But as usual in the NFL, everybody wants what they can’t have and they’re willing to copycat anything they see if it’ll mean more wins (and dollars) for them. It’s all a big pissing contests of the Joneses.

I’m not saying that’s what is going on in Jacksonville this week with Gabbert getting the call, but I don’t think he’s nearly as ready as Newton was – take that for what it’s worth. Really, if dollars weren’t the deciding factor we wouldn’t be having this conversation anyway as David Garrard took the snaps for the Jags.

I guess we’ll find out Sunday whether the future really is now.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 42.5)

The one word you hear around the league describing Gabbert is “raw.”

We all know he’s a big, strong, mobile kid that certainly has the skill set to be a solid NFL quarterback. His teammates say they love his confidence and intensity and are impressed with his pocket presence, speed and arm strength.

Translation: he’s a baller.

That’s why I can’t wait for this game. The two top quarterbacks out of the draft going shot-for-shot in a game that will mean more to each of them than they’ll ever admit.

It’s going to be messy at some points to be sure, but that’s part of the reason I like the over here. Neither of these teams is going to rein in these two studs and I think we’ll see some big plays from offense, defense and special teams.

Pick: Over


Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-7, 42)

I wasn’t so sure about Matt Hasselbeck with the Titans originally. Show’s what I know.

He’s leading this team with the veteran presence it needs and is just coming off a 358-yard day against the Baltimore Ravens in last weekend’s upset. The 35-year-old knows it’s important to get everybody involved when you’re joining a new team and has two legit receiving weapons in Kenny Britt and Nate Washington. Plus, you have to think Chris Johnson has to be just about ready to come out of his lockout fog.

Meanwhile, despite last weekend’s win, this Denver team is bullocks. The upside for over bettors is that the Broncos will have to keep throwing since they’ll probably be down by a couple of majors by halftime.

Pick: Over


Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (3, 43)

No idea where the points are going to come from in this one. Seattle was just blanked by Pittsburgh and there seems like there is no end to Tarvaris Jackson’s downward spiral.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals look pretty saucy on paper with their three-headed offensive monster led by Kevin Kolb, Beanie Wells, and Larry Fitzgerald, but so far that hasn’t materialized into much. Last week the Cardinals were outgained by more than 130 yards in their squeaker loss to the Redskins.
As ugly as this one might be, it’s a huge divisional game with both clubs still trying to work their offensive kinks out.

Pick: Under

Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record to date: 5-1


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[Udog]

NFL


Week 3

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Where the action is: NFL Week 3 lines moves
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Still waiting to see where Sunday’s odds are going to go? We talked to Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves on the NFL Week 3 board:

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans – Open: Titans -3, Move: -7

Money on the Titans has moved this spread off one key number and on another, with Tennessee sitting around a touchdown favorite. Rood believes most of those bets are against the Broncos, rather than on the Titans.

“This is the first road test for Denver, which has struggled with its identity,” says Rood.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills – Open: Bills +9, Move: +7

According to Rood, this is the most bet game on the Week 3 board (along with Detroit-Minnesota), with almost all the early action on the 2-0 Bills. Rood expects the public to come back on New England before kickoff and says Buffalo’s offense is the reason people are buying up the Bills.

“If they were 2-0 but not putting up so many points, this spread wouldn't be as low,” he says. “But right now, the Bills offense is just clicking.”

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns – Open: Browns -3, Move: -1.5

Almost all the early action is on the Dolphins, who hit the road to face the Browns after taking on the Texans and Patriots at home in the first two weeks of the season.

“It might be good for (Miami) to get away from home, after losing two straight there,” says Rood.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: Bucs +1 Move: -2.5

Sharp action on the Bucs pushed the home side to the favorite, however, a lot of parlay action is tied to the Falcons. Rood thinks people are still trying to figure out Atlanta, especially after its come-from-behind win over Philadelphia last Sunday.

“People don’t know what to think right now,” he says. “Is Atlanta going to click and be like last year? Maybe since they didn’t address their defensive needs in the offseason, that it will come back to bite them.”


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[Udog]

NFL


Week 3

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Sunday Night Football: Steelers at Colts
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+10.5, 39.5)

THE STORY: Peyton Manning's neck injury could turn out to be painful for more than the Indianapolis Colts. The executives at NBC Sports who were probably salivating at the prospect of Sunday night's matchup between Indianapolis and the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers could be spitting mad at the thought of the prime-time television ratings if the downtrodden Colts are unable to be competitive for a third straight week. Indy will be looking to avoid starting the season 0-3 for the first time since Manning’s rookie season, but its struggling offense will face a stiff challenge against a Pittsburgh defense that is coming off a shutout of Seattle last week.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

LINE MOVES: The Steelers opened at -11 and were bet down to -10.5. The total was posted at 38.5 and has been bet up as high as 39.5 points.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (1-1, 1-1 ATS): After absorbing a beating from Baltimore in its season opener, Pittsburgh found the perfect tonic to remedy its woes against the offensively challenged Seahawks. The result was a predictable 24-0 romp over the league’s lowest-scoring team. The Steelers registered five sacks and limited Seattle to 164 total yards and only eight first downs. Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman each ran for a touchdown and combined for 115 yards rushing as Pittsburgh held the ball for 38.5 minutes. QB Ben Roethlisberger bounced back from a rocky opener to complete 22 of 30 for 298 yards and one TD.

ABOUT THE COLTS (0-2, 0-2 ATS): Indianapolis has been as bad – if not worse – as feared in the absence of Manning, the league’s only four-time MVP. The Colts were steamrolled at Houston 34-7 in their season opener and weren’t much better in a 27-19 home loss to Cleveland last week. In Kerry Collins’ second start, Indy could not punch the ball into the end zone until the final 24 seconds. Collins, who came out of retirement to replace Manning, committed two costly four-quarter turnovers and completed only 50 percent of his passes (19 of 38, 191 yards) against a defense that doesn’t conjure up memories of the ’85 Bears.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Steelers WR Mike Wallace has back-to-back 100-yard games, extending his streak to five in the regular season dating to Dec. 19, 2010. He has eight receptions in each of the first two games.

2. The Colts have managed to put up only 26 points in their first two games. With Manning under center, they surpassed that total in one game 10 times in each of the last two seasons.

3. Pittsburgh has won seven of the last nine regular-season matchups with Indy, but the Colts have won the last two at home.

TRENDS:

- Steelers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as favorites of 10.5 or greater.
- Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs of 10.5 or greater.
- Over is 5-1 in Steelers last six games as road favorites.
- Under is 4-1 in Colts last five games as home underdogs.

PREDICTION: Steelers 27, Colts 13. Pride goeth before the fall. Indy rides the emotion of a prime-time home game to hang tough for a while before Pittsburgh’s defense finally takes control of the game.


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[Udog]

NFL


Monday, September 26

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Redskins at Cowboys: What bettors need to know
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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 45.5)

THE STORY: Tony Romo shouldn't be feeling confident enough to book a reservation in the penthouse suite yet, but at least he's out of the outhouse as the Dallas Cowboys prepare for their home opener against bitter division rival Washington on Monday night. Romo returned from a fractured rib and tiny tear in his lung to rally the Cowboys to a 27-24 overtime win at San Francisco last week. The performance helped blot out the memory of two killer turnovers in a season-opening loss to the New York Jets. The unbeaten Redskins are the surprise leaders in the NFC East but are venturing on the road for the first time.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2-0): Washington erased an eight-point deficit in the final 5 ½ minutes to overcome Arizona 22-21 last week for its first 2-0 start since the 2007 season. Rex Grossman, who brashly predicted Washington is the team to beat in the NFC East, had thrown for 596 yards and four touchdowns. Tim Hightower and rookie Roy Helu combined to rush for 170 yards on 30 carries as the Redskins held the ball for 38 ½ minutes. TE Fred Davis has averaged 17.4 yards on 11 receptions. Defensively, safety LaRon Landry (hamstring) is expected to make his season debut for Washington, which has registered seven sacks.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (1-1): Romo came off the bench to ignite a fourth-quarter rally that prevented a second straight 0-2 start. He has thrown for 342 and 345 yards in the first two games. Romo did not practice Thursday but was fitted for a protective vest Wednesday. If he plays, Romo could be without his top two receivers. Miles Austin (hamstring), who caught three TD passes last week, has already been ruled out and Dez Bryant (thigh) is questionable. In addition, RB Felix Jones has a separated shoulder. The Cowboys top the NFL in sacks with 10, led by league leader DeMarcus Ware’s 4.0.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Cowboys own an NFL-high 42 wins on Monday Night Football, but they have split 14 meetings with Washington, which is seeking its first 3-0 start since the 2007 season.

2. Romo holds a franchise record with a TD pass in 20 straight games for Dallas, which has lost both its home openers since Cowboys Stadium opened in 2009.

3. “I want to get a chance to put my helmet on whatever’s hurt. Romo’s ribs – I’m going to be asking for some corner blitzes. If I know Felix Jones’ shoulder’s hurt. … I’m definitely going to try to hit him up high. If you know something’s wrong with an opponent, you’re going to try to target in on that. We’re going to try to definitely get as many hats on that team as possible.” – Redskins CB DeAngelo Hall on attacking Dallas’ injured players.

TRENDS:

The Redskins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 roadies.

The Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records and 7-2-1 in their last 10 games overall.

The under is 7-2 in the Redskins' last nine games overall while the over is 9-0 in the Cowboys' last nine home games.

LINE MOVEMENT

Most books kept this game off the board because of the uncertain status of Dallas QB Tony Romo. Vegas and offshore sportsbooks started opening the line over the weekend as it became more apparent Romo would play. The MGM/Mirage re-opened with Dallas as a 5.5-point favorite while Caesars listed the home side as 4.5-point chalk. Both spots got bet down and Dallas -3.5 seems to be the prevailing number.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 27, Redskins 17. Even with all the injuries, the Cowboys should be able to move the ball and outscore Washington.


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