The Bum's CFB Week # 4 Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

College football betting: Buy or sell 3-0 ATS teams

Nine teams are off to 3-0 starts against the spread. History shows less than half of them will make it to 4-0.

Since 2000, 103 teams have started the season 3-0 against the spread. Those teams combined to go 42-51-3 ATS in their fourth game.

Let’s embrace our inner-Jim Cramer and play a little “Buy or Sell” with this year’s 3-0 ATS teams.

Florida International

Saturday’s win over a respected Central Florida team is an eye-opener, but savvy bettors have been making money off Mario Cristobal’s team for quite some time. The Panthers have covered in seven of their last eight, dating back to November.

But the news wasn’t all good coming out of the big win over in-state rival UCF. Golden Panthers’ star wideout T.Y. Hilton tweaked a hammy in the second quarter and sat out for most of the rest of the game. Hilton, an NFL talent, is a huge loss for the Panthers’ offense and special teams.

Luckily, they’ve got a defense that is second in the nation in sacks, averaging a whopping five per game. FIU got to UCF quarterback Jeff Godfrey six times Saturday. Godfrey had not been sacked previously this season.

The Panthers are 17-point home favorites over a Louisiana-Lafayette team they hammered by 21 on the road last year.

Stock – Buy.

Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets put up a ridiculous 768 yards of offense in a 66-24 pummeling of Kansas. But those types of numbers have a tendency to over-inflate the market value of a team.

Georgia Tech has gotten fat against Western Carolina, Middle Tennessee and a Kansas team that looks like the worst of the Big 12. Now, the Jackets head into conference play against teams with better athletes who have become accustomed to Paul Johnson’s pesky option attack over the last three years.

Johnson is a wicked-smart coach and it’s always a good bet to back the Jackets coming off a loss. He is 22-13 in that situation at Navy and Tech. But the ACC seemed to catch on to the Jackets’ game last season, when Tech went 3-5 ATS in ACC play.

Stock –Sell.

South Florida

It’s hard not to like what we’ve seen from the Bulls in Skip Holtz’s second season.

They’re ranked in the Top 15 in passing offense, total offense and scoring offense, behind a vastly under-rated quarterback in B.J. Daniels.

The Bulls also have a blossoming star in junior running back Darrell Scott, who had a 56-yard touchdown run and an 84-yard touchdown reception in Saturday’s 70-17 rout of Florida A&M.

USF struggled in Big East play last season, going 2-5 ATS. But Holtz was a master at getting his teams to exceed expectations in conference play at East Carolina, where the Pirates went 26-16 ATS against Conference USA foes under Holtz.

Stock – Buy.

Stanford

The Cardinal have been pummeling opponents and sportsboooks. Todd Fuhrman of Caesars sportsbook tweeted that he had never seen such one-sided public action when Stanford took on Duke as 21.5-point favorites. The Cardinal, of course, went onto paste Duke, 44-14.

The MGM Mirage reported similar losses on the Cardinal, and according to Covers.com’s Public Money stats, more money has been bet on Stanford than another team this season.

Surely, oddmakers aren’t going to let this continue. You can expect the Cardinal to be laying some big numbers the rest of the way. And they’ll be forced to cover those inflated spreads without their leading tackler, junior linebacker Shayne Skov, who was lost for the season with a leg injury this week.

Stock – Sell.

Vanderbilt

The most experienced team in the SEC got no respect entering the season. First-year coach James Franklin inherited a team with an SEC-high 19 returning starters, included all 11 on offense. Yet, the Commodores were picked to finish last in the SEC East.

Vandy looked nothing like a last-place team in demolishing Ole Miss on Saturday. Yet, oddsmakers have set the Commodores as 15 ½-point road dogs at South Carolina, which barely outlasted Navy.

No respect.

Stock – Buy.

Navy

Speaking of the Midshipmen … Navy lost a lot from last year, but it’s not like it had to replace a lot of NFL talent.

Instead, coach Ken Niumatalolo simply plugs in the next gritty overachiever who’s already been schooled on the option.

The result is another undervalued Navy team that is very similar to the ones that went 30-16-1 ATS as an underdog since 2001.

Stock – Buy.

Temple

Clearly, Al Golden left the cupboard full for new Owls coach Steve Addazio. Temple is fourth in the nation in scoring defense.

Of course, it helps to have played Villanova, Akron and Penn State.

The problem has been the offense, and it’s a concern that now includes a quarterback controversy.

Addazio says he’s not sure who will get the start this week against Maryland. Junior Mike Gerardi has started the first three games, but threw two picks in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s loss to Penn State.

But even with a shaky QB situation, the Owls possess more talent than most of the MAC.

Stock – Buy.

Arkansas State

The Red Wolves are the second Sun Belt dynamo to make the list. They’ve done it by sticking with Illinois and Virginia Tech and by blowing out lowly Memphis.
First-year coach Huge Freeze is relying on a veteran defense and an underrated dual-threat quarterback in Ryan Aplin. But this program hasn’t put up much of a fight in conference play. The Red Wolves are just 10-20 ATS against Sun Belt play since 2007.

Stock – Sell.

Buffalo

The Bulls were the worst bet in football last season, going 2-10 ATS. So they’ve already eclipsed last year’s ATS mark. But it’s hard to expect much more from this talent-depleted program.

Two of their three wins under second-year coach Jeff Quinn have come against Rhode Island and Stony Brook.

Stock -- Sell.

[StarDust Bum]

Wiz of Odds: Why super conferences are good for bettors


The college football landscape was rocked by another shockwave over the weekend when Pittsburgh and Syracuse, pillars of the Big East Conference, jumped to the rival Atlantic Coast Conference.

The move followed Texas A&M's stunning announcement in July that it intends to leave the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference when legal issues are resolved.

The radical reshaping of conferences is only beginning, but the bottom line is that we're headed for four 16-team super conferences. This madness is being driven by college football's lust for more TV dollars, and any such money grab has critics galore. But we're not about to tackle the question whether this is good for bad for the sport. Frankly, all we care about at Covers is how super conferences will impact you, the bettor.

First, let's grasp what a 16-team conference would look like by using the Pacific 16 as an example. It's actually a likely scenario given that Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are making moves in a westerly direction.

One scenario has a Pac-16 divided into two eight-team divisions. Division A would include USC, UCLA, Stanford, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State. Old-timers will remember this as the original Pac-8.

Division B would include the new kids on the block: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

This works because traditional rivalries such as USC-UCLA, Oregon-Oregon State, Texas-Oklahoma, etc., are kept intact.

A 12-game schedule would break down like this: seven games against opponents from your division, two games against teams from the other division and three nonconference games. The winners of each division would advance to the league title game.

The downside is that a team like Texas might play USC only once every four years. Ditto for other sexy matchups outside a team's division.

Another scenario has the Pac-16 breaking into four divisions, or pods. Pod A: USC, UCLA, Stanford and California. Pod B: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State. Pod C: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado. Pod D: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

Each team would play nine conference games per year — three against teams from their pod and two against teams from each of the other pods. Again, this structure would keep traditional rivalries intact.

The pod system’s shortfall is determining which teams deserve a spot in the league title game. One so-called “solution” is to have the two finalists determined on conference record, regardless of the pod. Another is to group the four pods into two divisions, with the division winners playing for the league championship. But either formula would require a detailed and likely controversial tiebreaker system.

There is a windfall for bettors in all of this. Super conferences will make the sport more competitive because one nonconference game — usually a matchup against a creampuff opponent — will be eliminated. In reality, those games are nothing more than a glorified scrimmage, and connoisseurs of the sport will embrace the addition of competitive matchups.

So relax if you're fretting about changes to the college football landscape because in the end, it’s going to work out for the bettor.

WEEK 3 IMPRESSIONS

Auburn’s problems on defense grow by the week. The Tigers now rank 116th in rushing defense, 100th in pass efficiency defense, 107th in scoring defense and 117th in total defense. And the meat of the SEC schedule is about to begin.
The good news is that Auburn plays Florida Atlantic on Saturday. The Owls might get our vote as worst team in college football if not for Akron.
Athletic directors at UCLA, Mississippi, New Mexico and Boston College should have already formed coaching search committees.
Terrific yet undervalued teams: Boise State and Stanford. The Cardinal did lose leading tackler Shayne Skov for the season because of a knee injury at Arizona, but it still has Andrew Luck.
If you had Vanderbilt and Iowa State going 3-0 to start the season, please move to the front of the line.
Hunch play of the week: Kansas State and the points at Miami. Do the Hurricanes have anything left in the tank after the beating Ohio State?

[StarDust Bum]

Exposing the Top 25: Where the NCAAF polls went wrong

Most overrated Top-25 team: No. 7 Oklahoma State Cowboys

While the Cowboys offense operates like a well-oiled machine, the defense leaves a lot to be desired.

Bettors have already seen two of Oklahoma State's first three opponents top 30 points. And UL-Lafayette, Arizona, and Tulsa have averaged over 413 total yards per game on roughly 5.4 yards per play. The secondary can be had, no doubt. Oklahoma State’s first two opponents were pass-first teams and the Cowboys picked off just one pass in 88 attempts.

This week finally offers a true test when the Cowboys travel to College Station to battle the Texas A&M Aggies. Last season, Oklahoma State allowed Texas A&M to throw for 409 yards and five TDs, while piling up 535 total yards in a 38-35 Cowboy win. This is a tough spot on the schedule and there's a good chance, after this weekend, that the Cowboys will be overrated no more.

Most underrated Top-25 team: No. 17 Baylor Bears

The Baylor Bears are off to a terrific start hanging 98 points on the scoreboard in two games, including 50 on the normally rugged TCU Horned Frogs.

Quarterback Robert Griffin III is a legitimate Heisman candidate. If you haven't been paying attention to the boys from Waco, you should take note that the Baylor signal caller has connected on 41 of 49 passes (83 percent completion rate) for 624 yards with eight TD passes and no interceptions. Griffin owns a 12.7 yards passing per attempt average and he has also run for 5.9 yards per carry.

One of the most underrated players in college football, wide receiver Kendell Wright, has hauled in no less than 20 passes in two games for 312 yards. Six receivers have at least three receptions in the two games and all six average 10.7 or more yards per catch. The offense is loaded and is perhaps one of the best in college football.

The next six games will go along way in telling us just how strong this Baylor team is. But, as of right now, they're about five spots too low in the polls.

Unranked team that should be in the Top 25: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

I'm usually not one to sing the praises of the Fighting Irish. For many years, the gang from South Bend received favorable rankings at the start of seasons and had to be pretty bad to get knocked from the polls. But this season, I believe the Irish, although they're 1-2 SU, should be ranked.

Notre Dame has faced a tough schedule and it’s just a couple of key turnovers away from having beaten South Florida, Michigan, and Michigan State. All three opponents are or have been ranked in the Top 25 this season.

Quarterback Tommy Rees is completing 70 percent of his pass attempts, RB Cierre Wood is averaging over 90 yards rushing per game with four TDs, and WR Michael Floyd already has 31 receptions - leading a group of five players who all have at least nine receptions through three games.

The Irish defense was out of position and blew a couple of coverages down the stretch against Michigan. But they held South Florida and Michigan State to an average of 306 total yards per game on just 4.11 yards per play.

This is a balanced team with a solid head coach. Stay away from the turnovers and it won't be long before the Irish are back in the polls, where they belong.

[StarDust Bum]

Missouri Tigers In Big 12 Clash At Oklahoma

Oklahoma is favored by a whopping 21 points at home vs. Missouri.
The Oklahoma Sooners will look to avoid a letdown coming off of their big road win over Florida State when they return home this Saturday to host the Missouri Tigers.

Kickoff is scheduled at 8:00 p.m. (ET), and will be televised in some areas on FX. The Don Best odds screen currently has the Sooners as a 21-point favorite at home.

With their win over Florida State, Oklahoma has solidified the No. 1 ranking in the AP Poll, and in all likelihood will play in the BCS National Championship. The Sooners' first loss of the season last year came against Missouri, so they should be on high alert in this one to make sure that doesn’t happen again.

While the AP has Oklahoma ranked No. 1, the Don Best Linemakers Poll has them ranked No. 2 behind Alabama. Missouri is currently No. 27 on the Don Best Linemakers Poll, and would take a big step forward with an upset this Saturday.

Oklahoma (2-0) currently holds the nation’s longest home winning streak with 37 straight victories, part of the reason why the Sooners are such a heavy favorite this week. In their season opener against Tulsa at home, they won 47-14 to cover as a 24 ½-point favorite.

Landry Jones, one of the country’s best quarterbacks, has been much better at home over the course of his career. He threw two interceptions against Florida State last week, bringing his career total to 28; only six of those interceptions were thrown at home.

Missouri (2-1) had lost seven straight games against Oklahoma before upsetting the Sooners 36-27 as a 3-point underdog at home last season. The atmosphere may be much different this time around however, considering Oklahoma’s home dominance and the Tigers having won just one of their last five road games.

New starting quarterback James Franklin has played well, passing for six touchdowns and just one interception through his first three games. In his first start on the road against Arizona State, he often panicked in the pocket and ran, piling up 27 rushing attempts in that one.

He’ll have to trust his offensive line this week, as Oklahoma’s closing speed will make it very difficult for him to find running lanes.

Oklahoma is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings between these Big 12 foes, but has split those games 4-4 ATS. Saturday’s 21-point spread is the most Oklahoma has been favored by over Missouri since 2003. The Sooners won the game but failed to cover as 27 ½-point home favorites.

Despite the offensive natures of these teams, the ‘total’ has gone ‘under’ in four of Missouri’s last six games on the road and five of Oklahoma’s last six games at home. The Don Best odds screen presently lists the total for Saturday night’s game at 56 ½.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 4

September 21, 2011

Thursday, Sept. 22

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

N.C. STATE at CINCINNATI...Tom O'Brien 0-3 vs. line in early going but had been 23-10 vs. points his previous 33 on board. NCS 16-5 last 21 as dog for O'Brien. Note Bearcats just 3-8 against line last 11 at Nippert vs. FBS foes. Slight to NCS, based on team trends.


Friday, Sept. 23

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

UCF at BYU...UCF 13-3 against number last 16 away from Orlando. If dog note O'Leary 8-2 last 10 in role. Cougs just 5-11 against points last 16 Provo. UCF, based on team trends.


Saturday, Sept. 24

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

COLORADO at OHIO STATE...Buffs now no covers last 6 as visitor, although they are a surprising 6-2 vs. spot last 8 vs. non-conference foes. Note the Buckeyes are only 6-8 against spread their last 14 as non-conference home chalk. OSU, based on team trends.

TULANE at DUKE...Wave 4-2-1 last 7 on board away from Superdome. Blue Devils only 4-9-1 vs. line last 14 at Durham for Cutcliffe, 1-2 last 3 as chalk. Tulane, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at SYRACUSE...Cuse only 2-5 vs. points last 7 at Carrier Dome, needing an OT to get one of those covers. Toledo, based on team trends.

UAB at EAST CAROLINA...ECU has won last six vs. UAB and covered last five. Although extended ECU chalk numbers not great (10-17 last 27 since late '05). UAB no covers last 6 since late LY. Slight to ECU, based on series trends.

UTEP at SOUTH FLORIDA...Skip off quickly this season at 3-0, but note extended chalk marks at USF & ECU are not too great (just 13-19). Price just 5-8 vs. line last 13 away from Sun Bowl. USF, based on recent UTEP woes.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS...Broncos 1-7-1 vs. spread last 9 on road vs. non-MAC foes, although Cubit is 7-2-1 last 9 on board since mid 2010. Zook only 5-14 last 19 as chalk. WMU, based on team trends.

OHIO at RUTGERS...Solich 10-4 last 14 as visiting dog. Solich also 17-9 vs. line last 26 as pure visitor. Schiano only 2-8 vs. line last 10 hosting FBS foes, and no covers last 3 as chalk vs. FBS. Ohio, based on team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at PENN STATE...Shades just 5-10 vs. line since LY and 3-7 last 10 at Happy Valley. Shades also only 1-6 last 7 laying DD at home vs. non-conf. foes. Slight to EMU, based on team trends.

KANSAS STATE at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Canes were a poor 7-16 as home chalk for Randy Shannon (2007-10), and Al Golden 6-6 last 12 as home chalk at Temple. Miami just 12-22 last 33 overall vs. spread as host. Bill Snyder 8-5 as dog the past two seasons. KSU, based on team trends.

SMU at MEMPHIS...Tigers' ten of 13 SU losses on Porter's watch have been by 20 points or more. Tigers now 3-9 vs. spread last 12 at Liberty Bowl vs. FBS foes. June Jones, however, just 4-9 against number last 12 on board, and 4-7 last 11 as chalk. Slight to SMU, based on Memphis negatives.

TEMPLE at MARYLAND...There hasn't been a Penn State letdown lately for Owls, who have covered in the last three years following their game vs. Shades. Owls 26-13 vs. line since '08 (3-0 for Steve "Shaved Head" Addazio). But Edsall 20-8 vs. spread since '09 at UConn and Md., and 33-19 against points since 2007. Slight to Maryland, based on extended Edsall trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...Dan Enos on a 2-9 spread slide at CMU since beginning with four covers LY. Remember that Butch Jones and CMU upset MSU 29-27 at East Lansing in 2009. Chips 4-1 vs. line last five visiting Big Ten. Dantonio just 13-16 vs. spread at Spartan Stadium since arriving at MSU in 2007, and no letdown lately for Spartans after Notre Dame, covering 6 of last 8 tries. Slight to MSU, based on team trends.

GEORGIA at OLE MISS...Teams haven't faced since '07. Richt only 1-7 vs. spread last 8 away from Athens after excelling vs. spread on road earlier in Georgia career. Houston Nutt just 3-5 as dog since '09 and 3-6 last 9 vs. line at Oxford. Georgia, based on recent Houston Nutt woes.

BOWLING GREEN at MIAMI-OHIO...Miami-O has won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings, but BGSU a surprising 12-3 its last 15 as a visiting dog. Slight to Miami-O, based on series trends.

ARMY at BALL STATE...Cards now 2-12 vs. line last 12 as host (0-1 for Pete Lembo). Army, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at MARSHALL...Beamer 11-4 vs. spread last 14 on board and 25-8 last 33 as visitor, although could not cover Sept, 10 at ECU. V-Tech, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS at ALABAMA...Petrino now 11-2 vs. spread last 13 reg.-season games. Petrino also 25-13 last 38 on board with Hogs and 6-2 last 8 as dog. Nick only 3-4 vs. line last 7 as SEC host. Slight to Arkansas, based on Petrino trends.

CALIFORNIA at WASHINGTON...U-Dub has now won and covered last 2, including thrilling last-second win at Berkeley LY that knocked Bears out of bowl contention and put Huskies into bowl mix. Tedford just 2-7 vs. line last 9 as visitor and 7-16 last 23 vs. spread on road. UW, based on Cal road woes.

LSU at WEST VIRGINIA...Tigers have won and covered last 4 vs. non-SEC FBS woes and haven't lost a reg.-season game vs. a non-SEC opponent since 2002 at Virginia Tech. Slight to LSU, based on non-conf. marks.

SAN DIEGO STATE at MICHIGAN...Hoke vs. Aztecs, a pretty interesting matchup! The M is 7-2 vs. line last 8 at Big House hosting non-Big Ten foes. Aztecs were 4-2 their last 6 as road dog for Hoke and are 12-5 vs. line last 17 on board. Slight to SDSU, based on team trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at GEORGIA TECH...Paul Johnson off pretty quickly this season, wins and covers first three. Johnson has won and covered last 2 vs. UNC after Heels had covered previous five vs. Tech. GT, based on recent trends.

FLORIDA at KENTUCKY...Joker 6-2 vs. line at home vs. FBS foes since LY. But Cats have lost and failed to cover last four vs. Gators. Florida 35-18 last 53 vs. number (3-0 for Muschamp). Florida, based on series trends.

NOTRE DAME at PITT...Panthers just 11-18 vs. line last 29 at home dating to late '06 and the Wannstedt years (0-2 vs. line at home for Todd Graham). ND, based on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE at CLEMSON...Noles only 2-4 SU and 1-5 vs. line last 6 meetings. If Dabo a do, notes he's 0-4 at Death Valley in role. Slight to Clemson, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...DeWayne Walker 9-5 vs. line on road at NMSU, stark contrast to 2-12 home spread mark. Ags have covered last 2 years in series, close games decided by 3 and 2 points. SJSU 9-24 last 33 on board, 4-11 last 15 at home. NMSU, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at IDAHO...Road team has covered last 4 and 5 of last 6 in series since Idaho joined WAC in 2005. Pat Hill 9-6 as visitor vs. spread since '09 and 4-1 last 5 as road chalk. Vandals no covers last 5 at Kibbie Dome vs. FBS teams and no covers last 7 as host vs. WAC. FSU, based on team and series trends.

UCONN at BUFFALO...UConn has pounded Buffalo lately, winning and covering 6 straight since '02, no game closer than 18 points. Although Huskies just 2-5 vs. line on road since LY after Edsall's 7-0 mark away in '09. Bulls have opened 2011 with three covers! Slight to UConn, based on series trends.

UCLA at OREGON STATE...Bruins 7-1 vs. line last 8 meetings and have won 3 of last 4 SU at Corvallis, although Neuheisel 0-1 SU at Reser Stadium. Beavs skidding at 1-6 vs. line last 7 since late LY and 1-6 last 7 as chalk. Neuheisel, however, no covers last 6 overal and last 5 away, and 3-9 vs. spread last 12 as visitor. Slight to OSU, based on UCLA negatives.

NEVADA at TEXAS TECH...Tuberville has now won and covered four straight at Lubbock after a slow start LY. Wolf Pack just 6-12 vs. points last 18 away from Reno. Nevada also 4-12 vs. spread last 16 vs. non-WAC foes. TT, based on team trends.

VANDERBILT at SOUTH CAROLINA...Commodores dropped last 4 vs. spread away LY although Vandy had been scrappy SEC road dog previously, covering prior 6 in role. Dores have also covered last two trips to Columbia and 3 of last 4 in series. Spurrier just 5-7 as DD home chalk since '07. Slight to Vandy, based on extended trends.

LA TECH at MISSISSIPPI STATE...LT just 1-7 vs. line vs. non-WAC foes on road, although the cover came in opener at USM. Interestingly, Dan Mullen just 5-8 vs. line at Starkville since arriving in '09 (3-5 since LY), 1-2 as DD chalk. Slight to MSU, based on extended LT non-WAC road woes.

RICE at BAYLOR...Bears only 1-4 in rare DD chalk role since '05 (1-1 LY). But Owls no covers their last five on road since early 2010. Slight to Baylor, based on recent Rice road woes.

SOUTHERN MISS at VIRGINIA...Golden Eagles no covers last 4 on board vs. FBS foes since late LY. Mike London 2-5 last 7 as dog at UVa. Slight to Virginia, based on recent USM woes.

OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS A&M...OSU has won and covered 3 of last 4 in series, including wild 38-35 nailbiter LY. Cowboys 11-4 vs. line since LY, and 7-0 vs. points away since 2010. Ags, however, have covered their last 7 reg.-season games on board. Slight to OSU, based on series trends.

NEBRASKA at WYOMING...Dave Christensen is 13-7 as dog since arriving at Wyo (4-4 in role LY). Wyo 6-2 vs. number vs. FBS non-MWC foes since Christensen arrived in '09. But Bo Pelini 12-6 vs. mark away from Lincoln since '08, 8-4 as road chalk. Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.

MISSOURI at OKLAHOMA...Big revenge for OU after 36-27 loss at Columbia LY. Pinkel 3-1 as dog since LY. Stoops only 3-3 vs. spread last 6 revenge spots, but OU has covered last 5 as Big XII host. OU, based on team trends.

COLORADO STATE at UTAH STATE...USU has covered last 3 since late LY. Utags 28-18 last 46 on board. CSU now on 4-17 spread slide since midway in 2009, and 4-11 last 15 vs. line away from Fort Collins. USU, based on team trends.

TULSA at BOISE STATE...Note that Tulsa has covered last 3 meetings extending back into Golden Hurricane WAC days. Broncos only 3-3 laying DD on blue carpet LY, 6-5 since '09, but they are 20-11 as home favorite since '05. Slight to Boise, based on extended trends.

OREGON at ARIZONA...Cats have actually covered 5 of last 6 in series. And Ducks only 3-8 vs. spread last 11 away from Eugene. But Cats only 2-10 vs. line last 12 since mid 2010 vs. FBS foes. Slight to UO, based on recent UA negatives.

SOUTHERN CAL at ARIZONA STATE...Trojans have not lost to ASU since Paul Hackett's days in 1999. But Sun Devils have covered last 8 at Tempe vs. Pac-12 foes and have covered last 3 vs. SC. ASU, based on team trends.




Added Games

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at AUBURN...Howard Schnellenberger now 4-21 vs. spread last 25 vs. non-Belt foes in reg. season (0-2 TY). Owls also no covers last 7 or 11 of last 12 since early 2010. Auburn, based on FAU negatives.

UL-MONROE at IOWA...Ferentz only 6-16 his last 22 laying DD since mid 2006 (0-1 TY) and 4-7 last 11 as chalk overall. Slight to ULM, based on Iowa negatives.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at TROY...Troy has brutalized MTSU lately, winning and covering last 5 meetings , last 4 by at least 14 points. Blue Raiders only 3-5 vs. line away since LY. Troy, based on series trends.

INDIANA at NORTH TEXAS...Hoosiers only 1-5 last 6 away from Bloomington, however (0-1 for Wilson). IU road chalk for first time since 1999 at Iowa. Slight to UNT, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL...FIU 7-1 vs. line last 8 on board since late LY. FIU had dropped five straight vs. line to ULL prior to LY's win. Ragin' Cajuns 5-0 last 5 as DD dog. Slight to ULL, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Arkansas visits Alabama in Top-15 clash

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (3-0)
at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (3-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Alabama -12.5

After beating up non-BCS opponents for three weeks, No. 14 Arkansas is tasked with playing a road game against what could be the best team in the nation in No. 3 Alabama.

Arkansas gave the Tide a scare in Fayetteville last year, leading by 13 in the second half before Alabama came back. But this is a much different team with QB Tyler Wilson now running the offense, and the Hogs only beat Troy by 10 points last week after leading 31-7 in the third quarter. Alabama has already handled a formidable opponent on the road, winning by 16 at Penn State two weeks ago. The Tide are 6-3 ATS at home since last year as Bryant-Denny Stadium continues to be one of the toughest places to play. Expect ALABAMA to win big with its formidable defense ranked second in the nation in scoring (6.0 PPG) and third in yardage (170 YPG).

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Tide, based on their defensive prowess:

Play On - A home team (ALABAMA) - with an excellent rushing defense - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. (83-38 since 1992.) (68.6%, +41.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Arkansas has to quickly forget the way it played in the second half last week, when Wilson threw an interception returned for a TD and the offense had four three-and-outs. Wilson, who is trying to fill the shoes of the departed Ryan Mallett, still completed 23-of-36 passes for 303 yards and two scores against the Trojans. RB Ronnie Wingo Jr. is also doing his best to replace injured Knile Davis, as Wingo Jr. has 182 rushing yards (5.7 YPC) and 2 TD in his past two games. He doesn’t expect to chew up much ground against Alabama’s tremendous run-stop unit, which held Arkansas to 127 yards on 46 carries (2.8 YPC) in the past two meetings. That’s where the group of talented Hogs receivers comes in. Cobi Hamilton and Joe Adams (28 rec, 450 yds, 2 TD combined) must continue to get open, as Greg Childs (personal) and Jarius Wright (knee) could both be sidelines again when Saturday arrives.

In contrast to the Razorbacks trying to air out the football, the Tide will be content to pound the pigskin on the ground. RB Trent Richardson already has eight rushing touchdowns this year, including three scores and 167 yards on just 11 carries (15.2 YPC) against North Texas. Richardson has 191 total yards and a pair of scores in two career meetings with Arkansas. After throwing two interceptions in the season opener, A.J. McCarron has settled down nicely, completing 34-of-52 passes (65.4%) for 353 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT in his past two games. The only negative about Alabama’s defense is its lack of turnovers, with just four takeaways in three games.

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Where the action is: Biggest midweek line moves


We all like to think of ourselves as sharp bettors. But if the line moves below are news to you – chances are you’re not as sharp as you hoped.

The wiseguys have their way with the early spreads, causing some midweek line moves in both the pro and college football ranks. We talked to Todd Fuhrman, a race and sportsbook analyst for Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, about the biggest midweek movers and shakers:

NCAAF

Florida State at Clemson – Open: Clemson +3, Move: Clemson -2

The early money was all on Clemson, taking the Tigers from home dogs to favorites as of Wednesday. Fuhrman says the sharps jumped on Clemson quick and the public followed, with the Tigers’ win over Auburn, and FSU’s loss to Oklahoma fresh in their minds.

“This line was wrong when it was posted and the market quickly corrected it,” he says. “Florida State had their national title hopes trashed while Clemson is on the upswing after that win over Auburn.”

Fuhrman also believes the unknown status of FSU QB E.J. Manuel has a lot to do with the action fading the Seminoles. It's rumored that Manuel separated his shoulder last week against Oklahoma.

San Diego State at Michigan – Open: Michigan -8, Move: Michigan -10.5

Brady Hoke knows an awful lot about SDSU, his former program, which is something bettors are counting on when the Aztecs come to the Big House Saturday. Fuhrman says 70 percent of the action is on the Wolverines but expects some buyback if the spread continues to climb.

Florida at Kentucky – Open: Kentucky +11, Move: Kentucky +19.5

Sharp money quickly jumped on the Gators when the lines came out at the Wynn Sunday, so most shops released a bigger spread on this SEC matchup. Fuhrman believes UK is completely outclassed and won’t be able to keep pace with the Gators.

“(Kentucky) just doesn’t have the playmakers,” he says. “Florida will be able to shutdown Kentucky and pretty much name the score.”

NFL

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans – Open: Tennessee -4.5, Move: -Tennessee -7

Heading into Week 3, the Titans are the NFL’s greatest mystery. They laid an egg in Week 1, then stunned the Ravens last Sunday, which is why bettors have quickly driven this spread to a touchdown.

“People haven’t really figured out Tennessee yet,” Fuhrman says. “But they’ve seen what Denver is all about. Honestly, this line seems a little inflated after such an impressive win over Baltimore.”

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns – Open: Cleveland -3, Move: Cleveland -1.5

This spread has dropped from the key number to as low as 1.5, with early sharp money on the Dolphins. Many bettors view Miami as undervalued after having to take on two of the NFL’s top offensive teams at home in the opening two weeks of the schedule.

“Our action is pretty much split right now," says Fuhrman. “But the Dolphins really had to battle uphill the first two weeks and now face a team more of their caliber.”

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: Cincinnati -1, Move: Cincinnati -2.5

After getting trashed by every talking head in the preseason, the Bengals’ love train is just pulling out of the station after a 2-0 ATS start to the year. Couple that with a Niners squad coming off a crushing loss in overtime in Week 2, and Cincy appears to be undervalued, according to the line move.

“This is another West Coast team that needs to travel to the Eastern Time zone,” notes Fuhrman. “It’s really a morning game for San Francisco.”

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Football lines that make you go hmmm: Week 4

Living in the moment is a concept that most of us struggle with at some time or another, even though we know doing so is in the best interest of our overall wellness. In sports betting, the same principle applies to the health of our bankroll.

Refusal to acknowledge the reality of where a team is at now, while either ignoring its shortcomings or improvements, has likely cost all of us a bet or two.

Stubbornness with our perceptions can be one of our worst enemies, and it’s often the difference between whether you take your betting slip on a happy return trip to the cage or whether it becomes a coaster for your next cheap drink.

In this week’s Lines that Make You Go Hmmm … we’ll take a look at a handful of lines that might belie a team’s current condition but won’t necessarily stop bettors from clinging to its past.

Our industry expert who came along to provide insight was Steve Mikkelson, race and sportsbook manager at the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa in Reno.

College football


Colorado at Ohio State (-14.5)

Granted, the Buckeyes are 14-2 against the spread in their last 16 home games and 10-2 ATS over their past 12 non-conference games. Conversely, Colorado has been one of the most woeful road teams for bettors in recent memory, cashing just eight times in its last 29 tries.

This doesn’t necessarily mean the Buckeyes are a good bet here. Ohio State barely survived against Toledo at home two weeks ago and was embarrassed by Miami last week. It has something of a quarterback quandary on its hands, and Joe Bauserman and Braxton Miller combined to complete just 4-of-18 passes for 35 yards.

Perhaps more concerning was the playcalling. When coach Luke Fickell finally got something going in the running game, he … promptly went away from it and let his offense bang its head against the wall known as Miami’s defense the rest of the game.

Even though Colorado should provide less resistance, the Buffs have looked better under first-year coach Jon Embree. They took Cal to overtime at home two weeks ago and dispatched rival Colorado State 28-14 for the cash last week.

Although Mikkelson concedes public perception plays a role in the spread, he isn’t ready to buy Colorado.

“I don’t think Colorado is all that good. I’m not a big fan,” he told ***********. “My feeling is that even at -14.5, we’ll be bet heavily on Ohio State. Colorado hasn’t been bet publicly for a while.”

Arkansas at Alabama (-11.5)

The powerful Crimson Tide opened as high as -13.5, but the spread was quickly brought down by bettors who spotted value in Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 10-1 ATS in their past 11 SEC games and, while a majority of those came in blowouts with Ryan Mallett at the helm, Arkansas also has shown a habit of sticking tight with tough opponents.

The Arkansas defense has been vulnerable, as it showed last week in giving up 28 points to Troy. Quarterback Tyler Wilson won’t make anyone forget Mallet, but he has passed for 822 yards and completed 69 percent of his throws.

Alabama has relied on running back Trent Richardson for the bulk of its offense while breaking in sophomore quarterback A.J. McCarron. The Tide defense has yielded just 18 points through three games, and Alabama is 5-2 ATS in its past seven as a favorite of 10 or more.

“The sharper play is to take the double digits,” Mikkelson said. “I think this one hangs around the number. I’d bet Alabama up to double digits, but for me to even think about Arkansas I need more than two touchdowns.”

NFL


Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-7)

The betting board changed quickly for the Titans, who went from a 6-point home underdog last week against the Baltimore Ravens. Coming off that upset win, they host an unpredictable Denver team already dealing with a fan-led quarterback controversy. The Broncos pulled out a 24-22 win at home last week over the Cincinnati Bengals.

“When a home underdog wins outright, they usually adjust too much, and the team usually gets beat,” Mikkelson said. “But I think Tennessee was undervalued going into this season.”

The sportsbook manager said he doesn’t like the prospects of Denver’s run defense against Chris Johnson and believes Denver quarterback Kyle Orton will be affected by calls for Tim Tebow to replace him.

“I don’t see Orton as a guy who can brush that off. He pays attention to the press,” Mikkelson said. “He’s not good enough to be Tom Brady and shut everyone up. He makes mistakes.”

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)

In order to keep fans behind him, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan had to find a way to win last week against the Philadelphia Eagles in Michael Vick’s return to Atlanta. Even though Vick left with an injury, Ryan led Atlanta to two fourth-quarter scores in a 35-31 comeback win.

The Falcons now travel to Tampa to face a Bucs team they have dominated of late, winning four straight against this division opponent. Many observers expect a breakout year for quarterback Josh Freeman and Tampa Bay, but Mikkelson said he believes the Bucs might be a year away from turning the corner.

“I feel Tampa Bay will take a step back this year,” he said. “On Sunday afternoon (before the Atlanta-Philadelphia Sunday night game), I felt the Falcons should be favored here. Atlanta went 13-3 last year and no one took notice. The Falcons are flying under the radar right now. I think they will be favored by kickoff.”

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North Carolina State at Cincinnati: What bettors need to know

North Carolina State Wolfpack at Cincinnati Bearcats (-7.5, 60.5)

THE STORY: Depleted North Carolina State visits a Cincinnati team eager to avenge last year’s 30-19 loss in Raleigh, N.C., which sent the Bearcats plunging to 4-8 after consecutive Big East titles. Led by senior quarterback Zach Collaros, Cincinnati is averaging 51.3 points (4th nationally) and 433 total yards.

The Wolfpack will be without linebacker Terrell Manning, defensive tackle J.R. Sweezy and possibly defensive end Jeff Rieskamp. Earlier, corner Jarvis Byrd was lost for the season. Coach Tom O’Brien said his staff is like “the Dutch boy, putting fingers in the dike.”

TV: ESPN

LINE MOVES: This spread has bounced between 7.5 and 8 while the total opened at as low as 59.5 and has been since been bet up.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (2-1, 0-1 ACC): Redshirt junior Mike Glennon has done well taking over for Russell Wilson. In his last three halves, he’s completed nearly 70 percent of his throws and tossed seven TDs. Sophomore CB David Amerson leads the ACC with three interceptions and is tied for second nationally. But the defense has struggled in the red zone, allowing opponents to score on all eight trips (four TDs, four FGs).

ABOUT CINCINNATI (2-1, 0-0 Big East): RB Isaiah Pead has run for 257 yards and four TDs on just 27 carries. Collaros needs 141 yards to become the fifth Bearcat to pass for 5,000 career yards. His favorite target is D.J. Woods, who has 15 grabs for 232 yards and a score. The defense forced six turnovers in last week’s rout of Akron, returning two interceptions and a fumble for touchdowns.

WEATHER: There is a 28 percent chance of rain at Nippert Stadium for kickoff Thursday. The forecast is calling for more of the wet stuff as the game continues. Rain could have an impact in the fourth quarter, which sould catch the attention of second-half bettors.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Wolfpack senior WR/returner T.J. Graham averages 194 all-purpose yards, which ranks second in the ACC and sixth nationally.

2. Bearcats freshman K Tony Miliano has had two FG tries blocked this year, including a 43-yarder last week against Akron. He also nailed a 47-yarder.

3. The game will be O’Brien’s first in his hometown since 1973, when he played at Xavier.

TRENDS:

- Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
- Bearcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
- Under is 4-0 in Wolfpack's last four non-conference games.
- Under is 9-1 in Bearcats' last 10 Thursday games.

PREDICTION: Cincinnati 34, N.C. State 21 – The Wolfpack are missing several key defenders, and Collaros will capitalize.

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Tale of the tape: North Carolina State at Cincinnati


If you’re new to our Tale of the Tape pieces, we use them to dig into stand-alone college games throughout the season. They’re stat heavy, hard-hitting, and quick, so that you’ll be able to rip through them and still have time to put a bet in while you’re stocking the fridge with beer.

North Carolina State at Cincinnati (-7.5, 60.5)

Offense

It looks like we’re in for some fireworks in this one with the Bearcats averaging 433 yards and better than 50 points per game, while the Wolfpack check in at 35 points and 378 yards per contest.

But we don’t know much about Cincinnati just yet outside of what they showed in the loss to Tennessee. Isaiah Pead has already churned out 257 yards on the ground and four touchdowns for Cincinnati with a gaudy 9.5 yards per attempt average. However, there are still questions about the passing game that ranks 84th in the nation at 194 yards per game with Zach Collaros taking the snaps. He’s completing 62.3 percent of his passes, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt.

N.C. State looks to be ready to bust out on offense if the running game comes around. Mike Glennon has led the passing attack to the No. 39 spot in the country at 256 yards per game with eight touchdowns and just one interception. However, the Wolfpack averaged just 2.9 yards per carry in their latest win over Southern Alabama and is operating at just a 3.7 per carry clip on the year.

Edge: Bearcats

Defense

N.C. State is dealing with some major injuries on defense (linebacker Terrell Manning, defensive tackle J.R. Sweezy and possibly defensive end Jeff Rieskamp) and is allowing about 377 yards per game as it is. That said, the Wolfpack have held teams to 105 rushing yards per game and have already picked up 11 turnovers – seven on interceptions. Opponents have scored on all eight trips inside the red zone against the Wolfpack.

Turnovers will be key for the Bearcats as well. They have 13 takeaways already this season, even though they head into this contest allowing 385.7 yards per game. Cincinnati is giving up 127.3 yards per game on the ground (56th in the country) on 3.67 yards per attempt. The Bearcats did give up 17 points to the punchless Akron Zips, but they also scored three defensive touchdowns and forced five turnovers.

Both teams have question marks on defense, but we’ll look for a few big plays from the hometown Bearcats.

Edge: Bearcats

Special teams

Cincinnati has had two kicks blocked already and is converting just 60 percent of its tries so far while N.C. State has hit all three of its attempts this season. T.J. Graham is also a major weapon for N.C. State in the return game and averages about 194 all-purpose yards per game.

The Bearcats have the edge in punting at 41.5 yards per boot over N.C. State’s 37.6, but look for Graham to break a couple for the Wolfpack.

Edge: Wolfpack

Word on the street

“I know [the players] are excited to play Thursday night as are our coaches and our fans. I believe it’s going to be an electric atmosphere, it’s going to be a blackout. It’s great for our university and our entire community.” - Cincinnati coach Butch Jones.

"I've been around long enough that to know that Thursday night used to be the game in college football that all your peers watched. Even with the glut of games on TV, it's still something special because it basically kicks off the weekend." – N.C. State coach Tom O’Brien.

Final score prediction

Cincinnati 27, N.C. State 23

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College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 4


North Carolina Tar Heels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-6.5, 57.5)

Why North Carolina will cover: UNC is ranked 16th nationally against the run, which is GT’s bread and butter. The Tar Heels are already 2-1 ATS.

Why Georgia Tech will cover: This will be the first real test for the Heels, and the Jackets can wear down a team. GT is an emphatic 3-0 ATS, winning games by 42, 38 and 42 points (spreads of 33.5, 13 and 14.5).

Points: The over is 3-0 in Tech games, but the under has struck in two of UNC’s three games and is 10-4 in the Heels’ last 14. This is the first true test for either team, which typically means less offense than usual, at least early on.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Michigan State Spartans (-24, 49.5)

Why Central Michigan will cover: Michigan State looked surprisingly poor at Notre Dame last week, so CMU may have found enough in film to hang in there early. CMU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. the Big Ten.

Why Michigan State will cover: MSU has much to prove after last week’s loss at Notre Dame. The Chippewas have been underwhelming, even with their lowered expectations, 0-3 ATS. CMU is averaging just 16 ppg against poor competition. It will be hard-pressed to put up any more in East Lansing.

Points: MSU’s defense ranks in fourth in yards allowed and 16th in points allowed, and the under is 4-1 in the Spartans’ last five. It may not allow CMU to score enough to push the over, though the over is 5-1-1 in CMU’s last seven vs. the Big Ten.

San Diego State Aztecs at Michigan Wolverines (-10, 59.5)

Why San Diego State will cover: Michigan’s offense is still suspect. Stop QB Denard Robinson, and you stop the Wolverines. The Aztecs can grind it out, which can really help an underdog on the road.

Why Michigan will cover: The Wolverines are 2-1 ATS, with the miss by a half-point vs. Eastern Michigan (-28.5). Robinson, when on his game, is a defensive nightmare. And SDSU ranks 99th against the run. The Wolverines are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 non-conference games.

Points: Both defenses have bent but not broken. These two rushing offenses aren’t the types to shatter that.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5, 50.5)

Why Arkansas will cover: The Razorbacks’ eighth-ranked pass offense keeps the team in games. The defense is much improved from recent seasons. Plus, the team is an impressive 10-1 ATS in its last 11 SEC games.

Why Alabama will cover: The Tide already rolled at Penn State. This will be the first true test and first road game for the Razorbacks. Alabama ranks in the top 10 in every defensive category.

Points: The over is 5-1 in Arkansas’ last six SEC games, while the under is 4-1 in Alabama’s last five.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5, 69)

Why Oklahoma State will cover: OSU has steamrolled the competition, going 2-1 ATS with wins of 37 (-38), 23 (-14) and 26 (-13.5). The offense ranks No. 2 in yards and No. 3 in points. OSU is 6-0 in its last six road games.

Why Texas A&M will cover: OSU’s defense has been suspect in all facets, and the Aggies have clicked so far. That’s a favorable point spread for a College Station home game. A&M is 6-0 ATS in its last six Big 12 games.

Points: The under is 10-1 in OSU’s last 11 games as a road underdog. That’s a big total, but both teams are capable of going over it by the end of the third quarter.

Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers (+1.5, 50.5)

Why Florida State will cover: The Seminoles competed with No. 1 Oklahoma before running out of gas in the fourth quarter. A stellar pass game (325 ypg) and a defense that ranks fifth in yards allowed is a tough combo for Clemson to handle, even at home.

Why Clemson will cover: Clemson proved it belonged after beating Auburn by 14. The offense has had no problem scoring. Meanwhile, FSU is banged up, with several key players listed as questionable, including QB E.J. Manuel (though he’ll likely play).

Points: The over is 4-0 in Clemson’s last four games. Both offenses are ranked high, and both defenses are suspect.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Marshall Thundering Herd (+21, 46)

Why Virginia Tech will cover: Tech’s defense ranks No. 8 in points and yards allowed. Marshall’s offense ranks No. 107 and No. 105 in those two categories. How is Marshall going to score? VT is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a losing record.

Why Marshall will cover: Marshall has been respectable against the run, which is VT’s strength. This is a marquee home game for the Herd and they’ll come out with everything they’ve got.

Points: Points could be at a premium, at least until VT opens things up in the second half. The under is 6-1 in Marshall’s last seven as a home underdog.

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats (+19, 43)

Why Florida will cover: UK’s offense is among the worst in the nation while UF’s defense ranks in the top 10 in most major categories. Meanwhile, Florida has had no problems putting up points.

Why Kentucky will cover: In recent years, the Wildcats have stepped it up in the big SEC rivalry games. It’s a big spread for a SEC road team.

Points: UK will struggle to put a lot of points up, but Florida’s average of 37.7 ppg is going to come down, too. The over is 4-0 in UF’s last four as a road favorite, and is 6-0 in UK’s last six at home against a team with a winning record.

UTEP Miners at South Florida Bulls (-29. 47.5)

Why UTEP will cover: UTEP is 2-0 ATS against FCS competition. The Miners have put up yards but haven’t score much this season. They should eventually break through and put up points.

Why South Florida will cover: South Florida is 3-0 ATS, and that includes a 53-point win on a minus-41. The Bulls know how to put away lesser competition, so this game should be over by halftime.

Points: South Florida hasn’t been stopped yet. If UTEP can hold up its end by scoring two TDs, USF should do the rest.

Vanderbilt Commodores at South Carolina Gamecocks (-16.5, 52.5)

Why Vanderbilt will cover: Vandy is 3-0 ATS, including a 30-7 drubbing of Ole Miss last week. USC is just 1-2 and is one point off from being 0-3. Its defense has been key, which could hold down the score enough to at least cover.

Why South Carolina will cover: The Gamecocks haven’t put it all together for a game, yet won at Georgia and held on vs. Navy. The offense still ranks No. 16 in points. A complete game buries Vandy.

Points: Vandy’s been big on the under, while USC typically hits the over. Vandy’s solid defense vs. USC’s powerful offense will determine how close the game gets.

Rice Owls at Baylor Bears (-20, 66.5)

Why Rice will cover: The Owls haven’t looked great, but they did beat Purdue last week by blocking a last-second field goal.

Why Baylor will cover: Baylor’s offense has run wild so far, averaging 50 ppg in two games. Rice ranks near the bottom in every statistical category on both sides of the ball.

Points: That’s a big spread, especially when one of the teams (Rice) will struggle to score. The over is 8-2 in Baylor’s last 10.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Wyoming Cowboys (+23.5, 57)

Why Nebraska will cover: The Huskers have been less than stellar, yet still average 44.2 ppg. If this is the game that the defense finally catches up, look out.

Why Wyoming will cover: Nebraska has been erratic at best, hence an 0-3 ATS mark. The Cowboys will be fired up getting the Huskers at home. An offense that ranks 37th in points should get its points against a defense that ranks in the bottom half in all facets.

Points: The over is 2-1 in both teams’ games so far. This line doesn’t look to change that trend.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Boise State Broncos (-32.5, 62)

Why Tulsa will cover: Just another game in Tulsa’s amazing non-conference schedule. It played Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and lost by 33 and 26. Still, the offense has put up some points. That’s a big spread and Tulsa is 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road.

Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos finally get a home game after going 2-0 ATS at Georgia and Toledo and is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 in September. It’s time to have some fun, which means lots of scoring on the Smurf Turf.

Points: The scoreboard will be lighting up all night in Boise. The question is will Tulsa join in the fun?

Missouri Tigers at Oklahoma Sooners (-21.5, 56.5)

Why Missouri will cover: Statistically, the Tigers match up with OU, ranking in the top 25 in points for and against, and 10th and 11th in rushing yards for and against, respectively. To stay within three touchdowns isn’t out of the question.

Why Oklahoma will cover: The Sooners at 2-0 ATS thanks to a defense that has shut down opponents until the game is well decided. The offense has been solid but not yet spectacular.

Points: It’s the same mark as the Oklahoma-Florida State game (which hit 36). OU should put up bigger numbers, but Missouri needs to keep pace. The under is 5-1 in OU’s last six.

LSU Tigers at West Virginia Mountaineers (+5.5, 50.5)

Why LSU will cover: The Tigers have faced formidable obstacles this season already, and vanquished them all. LSU’s defense ranks No. 19 against the pass and No. 3 against the run. WVU can’t run and a one-dimensional offense isn’t going to score on the Tigers, who are 2-0 ATS.

Why West Virginia will cover: West Virginia throws long and scores big, so it’s never out of a game. A big night game typically favors the home crowd, and Morgantown will be rocking.

Points: LSU scores enough to win, which usually isn’t a lot. WVU may find the going tough, especially early on.

Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats (+15. 64.5)

Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks average 50.7 ppg and can throw and run. Arizona ranks 111th in yards and pass yards allowed, and is 1-6 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning record.

Why Arizona will cover: The Wildcats can’t run the ball effectively or play defense, but they can sling it, averaging 364 yards through the air.

Points: The under is 2-0 in Arizona’s last two and Oregon’s last two, but this has the makings of a high-scoring affair. The over is 4-1 in these team’s last five games.

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Ear to the gridiron: ACC betting news and notes

September 21, 2011 10:45AM

Marc Lawrence dives deep in a crazy week for the ACC, giving you the best betting notes heading into Week 4 of the college football schedule.

Expanding Minds

With Pittsburgh and Syracuse having been accepted for expansion into the ACC, the talk of a super conference finds coaches, players and administrators abuzz.

“It's all pros and I don't see how there is any cons there,” Miami coach Al Golden told reporters. “I can't even imagine households we just reached with New York State and Pittsburgh. It's a great time to be in the ACC. We've helped ourselves from the football standpoint bringing in two traditional schools in Pittsburgh and Syracuse."

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech RBs coach and recruiting coordinator Shane Beamer loves the recruiting impact of ACC expansion.

“It opens up different parts of the Northeast,” he said. “We’re up in the Northeast a little bit recruiting right now. We’ve had players in the past from Philadelphia, New Jersey and New York and this is another avenue.”

Long time homecoming

Thursday’s contest between North Carolina State and Cincinnati is head coach Tom O’Brien’s first game in his hometown since 1973.

“I played in the last Quantico Marine game at Xavier in Xavier’s last game,” he told the media. “That’s the only time I’ve had any football experience in Cincinnati since I left high school.”

O’Brien said he enjoys playing on Thursday, with reservation. When taking to the road on Thursdays, his teams are 0-5 ATS.

“I enjoy the opportunity to play it, I just don’t enjoy the short week,” he said. “It used to be the game in college football everybody watched, all your peers watched and it was a chance to showcase your university. It’s still something special because it basically kicks off the weekend.”

Something has to give

North Carolina has not surrendered a first-quarter point this season, outscoring opponents 21-0. Georgia Tech has scored TDs on its opening play in each of its three games.

“Something’s got to give,” Tar Heels S Matt Merletti told the press. “I fully expect our defense to not give up big plays.”

The Yellow Jackets lead the nation with 428 rushing yards per game, while the Tar Heels allow 77 rushing yards per game, which ranks 16th nationally. Coach Paul Johnson said UNC's front seven will be easily the best Georgia Tech has faced this season.

North Carolina’s offensive line, which features three starters at 6-foot-7 or taller, will be the best the Jackets have faced by far.

“They’ve only given up one sack in three games,” GT defensive coordinator Al Groh told reporters. “A lot of height, a lot of girth, but what is noteworthy with all that size is their excellent athletic ability. They can really kick-slide, set, change directions.”

Georgia Tech has won its last six home games against North Carolina and 11 of 13 overall, including 30-24 last year in Chapel Hill.

The Yellow Jackets are looking for their first 4-0 start since 1990, when it shared the national championship. The Tar Heels are 3-0 for just the second time in 14 years.

Shouldering the blame

Florida State QB EJ Manuel's availability for Saturday's ACC opener at Clemson remains uncertain. Manuel injured his left shoulder in last Saturday's game against Oklahoma.

"I think it will just be a matter of pain tolerance," coach Jimbo Fisher told the media. "And we'll just see how it goes."

Offensive lineman Zebrie Sanders says the unit is confident in backup QB Clint Trickett, who could start Saturday in place of injured EJ Manuel (shoulder).

"EJ (Manuel) is a good player and brings a lot to the table, including his experience, but it's nothing Clint can't do," Sanders said.

Florida State has struggled in Death Valley in recent years, losing four straight games at Clemson, where it is winless since 2001. Florida State holds a 17-7 edge in the series that dates to 1970.

Clemson ranks ninth in the nation in total offense through three weeks (522 yards per game), making dramatic strides from last season when the Tigers ranked 88th in total offense (334 yards per game).

Florida State Sophomore CB Xavier Rhodes says Saturday's 23-13 loss to No. 1 Oklahoma was the most physical game he has played in.

"Everyone was hitting," he told the media. "Some teams have WRs that are timid about hitting and getting hurt, but WRs, RBs, everyone was out there hitting."

From the database

• ACC Coaches: Duke’s David Cutcliffe is 6-11 ATS as a double-digit favorite… Maryland’s Randy Edsall is 22-7 ATS off a SU and ATS loss, including 13-2 ATS when facing a non-conference foe… Miami’s Al Golden is 13-4-1 ATS at home against opposition with a win percentage of more than .200… Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer is 27-16-1 ATS away versus non-conference opponents, but only 2-7 ATS against those with a losing record.

• ACC versus other conferences: 9-23 SU and ATS away versus Big East opponents off a SU and ATS win… 3-9 ATS off a win versus C-USA opponents off a win… 12-0 SU and 7-3 ATS off a SU and ATS loss versus MAC opposition.

• STAT OF THE WEEK: Florida State is 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS in games following its first loss of the season

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/17/11 32-*39-*1 45.07% -*5450 Detail
09/16/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/15/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/10/11 42-*42-*0 50.00% -*2100 Detail
09/09/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
09/08/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/05/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/04/11 1-*1-*2 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/03/11 34-*16-*2 68.00% +*8200 Detail
09/02/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
09/01/11 7-*12-*0 36.84% -*3100 Detail
Totals 127-*117-*5 52.05% -*850

Thursday, September 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

North Carolina State - 8:00 PM ET North Carolina State +7 500

Cincinnati - Under 61 500

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Ohio State At The Shoe Against Colorado Buffaloes

Saturday’s total in Columbus has been bet down to 44 ½ points.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are trending in the wrong direction as they host the Colorado Buffaloes on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. (ET) on either ABC or ESPN2.

Big Ten Ohio State is still a 15-point college football betting favorite with a total of 44 ½. Those are both decreases from the opening 15 ½ pointspread and 46 ½ total.

The fact the total has been bet down is not surprising. After all, Ohio State (2-1 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) couldn’t even muster a touchdown in the 24-6 loss at Miami last week as 2-point ‘dogs. Senior quarterback Joe Bauserman was a miserable 2-of-14 passing for 13 yards, while true freshman backup Braxton Miller didn’t do much better (2-of-4, 22 yards, one pick, one fumble).

The loss dropped the Buckeyes out of the AP top 25 for the first time since 2004. The Don Best Linemakers Poll lowered them from No. 21 to No. 26.

The Buckeyes at least return home where they’re undefeated, although they struggled there last time out. A win (27-22) over Toledo on September 10 required a late defensive stand and they looked nothing like a 17 ½-point favorite. There was an opening 42-0 home win over Akron, but that MAC bottom-dweller has been outscored 142-17 this season.

Interim head coach Luke Fickell hasn't done much to have that tag removed. He still has two more games before he gets back suspended running back Dan Herron, receiver DeVier Posey and offensive tackle Mike Adams.

Those three players will eventually boost a running game that is 53rd nationally (170 YPG) and a passing game that ranks 96th (172.3 YPG). Fickell is reportedly leaning towards starting Miller this week and the former five-star recruit is very talented with a big arm and ability to scramble.

Ohio State can move the ball on Colorado’s defense (318.7 YPG, 42nd nationally) as long as it doesn’t shoot itself in the foot with turnovers.

The ‘under’ is 3-0 for Ohio State this year with the offense averaging 25 PPG and the defense allowing 15.3 PPG.

The Buckeyes are 7-1-1 in their last nine games against the Pac-12, although Colorado just joined that conference this season. OSU was 15-4 ATS in its prior 19 home games before this season.

Pac-12 Colorado (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) got its first win for new coach Jon Embree last week, 28-14 over Colorado State, played at neutral site Denver The Buffaloes were 7-point favorites and have now ‘covered’ two straight after a 36-33 OT loss to California as 6 ½-point home ‘dogs on Sept. 10.

Senior quarterback Tyler Hansen is healthy and really coming into his own with seven touchdowns versus one interception. He exploded for 474 yards against Cal and the team’s 304 YPG passing ranks 22nd in the country.

Running back Rodney Stewart hasn’t been as successful this year (223 yards, 3.7 yards per carry. That’s coming off a 1,318 yard season, 4.5 yards per carry.

Ohio State allowed 240 rushing yards to Miami last week after a combined 81 the first two. Colorado needs to run Stewart to keep the defense honest, but look for a good effort from the Ohio State front seven and Hansen will need to make plays to keep this game close.

Colorado has a big monkey on its back, losing 18 straight true road games dating back to 2007. The one this year was a 34-17 opening loss at Hawaii as 6-point ‘dogs, surrendering 343 total yards of offense.

The team is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 road games overall.

Colorado does have some injury concerns along the offensive line. Starting center Daniel Munyer (ankle) is questionable, but there’s good news with left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee), who is upgraded to probable.

This is the first meeting between the teams since 1986. Weather is only expected to be in the high 50s, low 60s with a 40 percent chance of precipitation.

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Boise State Broncos Host Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Boise State’s Kellen Moore has passed for 716 yards and eight touchdowns.
Just a month or two ago, it really looked like the clash between the Boise State Broncos and the Tulsa Golden Hurricane was going to be one of the best duels pitting two non-AQ schools against each other this year.

The clash doesn't quite have the same luster now that it did back then, but it should still be a great game that NCAA football betting fans don't want to miss out on.

This is the first game of the year played at Bronco Stadium, and you can bet that the hometown crowd is going to be welcoming their Broncos with open arms. Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. (ET) on Saturday, and there will be television coverage available on CBS College Sports.

The Broncos (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) have definitely held up their end of the bargain this year. They steamrolled both the Georgia Bulldogs and the Toledo Rockets on the road to start the campaign, and have to think they're just 10 wins away from making it to the BCS and potentially playing for the National Championship.

Quarterback Kellen Moore is truly rounding into a Heisman Trophy contender this year. He is leading the nation's No. 6 passing attack at 363.0 YPG, and has 716 passing yards and eight TDs.

Last year, Tulsa ranked dead last in the nation in pass defense, allowing over 310 YPG, and the Golden Hurricane haven't gotten off to a much better start this year either. The team is allowing 320.7 YPG through the air, No. 116 in the nation, and the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Oklahoma Sooners combined for nearly 800 passing yards between them.

We knew that the Golden Hurricane (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) were going to struggle defensively stopping the Broncos, especially in their first game of the year on their blue field. But what we didn't know was that the offense might prove to be anemic.

Damaris Johnson, the NCAA all-purpose yardage record-holder, was suspended indefinitely by Tulsa at the end of August for his role in an embezzlement charge involving his girlfriend.

Without Johnson in the fold, Trey Watts is the only man on the team that is averaging over 100 all-purpose yards per game. He has been good for 40.0 return yards, 9.3 receiving yards, and 87.3 rushing yards per game.

Now to make matters even worse, quarterback GJ Kinne has gone down with a knee injury that he suffered last week against the Cowboys, and he has been listed as doubtful on the injury report as of Thursday. Backup Kalen Henderson came in against Oklahoma State and went just 6-of-20 for 104 yards with two TDs against a dreadful three INTs.

The three meetings between these teams since 2003 have all been close. Though Boise State has won all three encounters, all were decided by a touchdown or less, and the Golden Hurricane have stuck in front of the college football odds in all three.

This time though, it's hard to see how this will be anything but one-way traffic if Kinne doesn't play. The Broncos are 28-point favorites, while the 'total' has been set at 62.

It should be a perfect night for football in Boise, as temperatures are expected to dip into the mid-60s with no chance for rain.