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**StarDust Bum** · 09-19-2011, 05:36 PM

Books lose on Saturday

September 19, 2011

The first two weeks of college football action had seen the public favorites negate what could have been winning days for Las Vegas sports books. Past history has shown that when there is an evenly mixed ratio of underdogs to favorites winning, the house does well. Even though the favorites went only 25-23, Saturday’s games followed the same trend of the previous two weeks with public teams like Wisconsin, Stanford, Oklahoma, USC and Miami piling up large parlay payouts that the books couldn’t counter with.

However, for at least one chain of books, they fared well on the day thanks to a little boxing match held at their property. The MGM Resorts properties were cringing with every college football final score they posted on Saturday night, but got good news with Floyd Mayweather’s controversial fourth-round knocked of Victor Ortiz at the MGM Grand.

Other sports books around town all fared well on the bout too, but a major chunk of the state’s action on the fight was taken within the MGM and their other properties like the Mirage, Mandalay Bay and Bellagio.

Mayweather had opened a large -900 favorite over Ortiz and the sports books couldn’t find anyone to lay it. From the time the line came out until the start of the first round, it was all Ortiz money, both small and large. Mayweather closed as a -500 favorite at the MGM and dipped to -475 at the South Point.

Usually in fights where there is a big favorite like this, the sharp money likes to wait until the last possible moment because they know the public will always be all over the underdog due to the high returns should they win; they like the bet a little to win a lot. When the Sharps feel the price is as low as it will go, then they come with the large bets.

Between the small money and large money both being on Ortiz, the day’s college football losses took a back seat to the big win.

The rest of the city didn’t have the fortune of having the match at their property like the MGM did, but still managed to ease the pain of the large college football losses at the end of the day.

The biggest blow was the three-team 6-to-1 parlay from the night games with USC (-16) beating Syracuse, Oklahoma (-3) winning at Florida State and Miami (-2 ½) dominating Ohio State. Those results were magnified even worse when Stanford came in with their impressive 37-10 win at Arizona.

Games that helped the sports books not lose as much began with Nebraska (-17) getting back doored by Washington to win 51-38. TCU (-29) had a rough start in their game against Louisiana-Monroe, eventually winning 38-17, but didn’t cover.

The big 40-20 UNLV win over Hawaii could have been a massive win for the sports books -- and it did kill all kinds of dangerous parlays, but Sharp money was all over the Rebels despite their horrendous efforts in their first two games. Hawaii dropped from a 20 ½-point favorite all the way to -17 by kickoff. The books avoided the public parlay wrath, but still eventually lost the game because of the overwhelming large money on straight bets with UNLV.

UNLV paid out as the biggest moneyline underdog winner of the day at 7-to-1 odds. Of the 23 underdogs that covered on the day, 12 of them won outright. Tulane’s 49-10 surprising 49-10 win at UAB paid out at 7-to-2 odds and Wyoming’s 28-27 win at Bowling Green gave 3-to-1 odds. However, there weren’t too many bettors that could say they had the foresight that actually had tickets on those games.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-19-2011, 05:39 PM

College Notebook

September 19, 2011

Air Force...Falcons senior starting LB Patrick Hennessey will likely miss the remainder of the season with a severe thumb injury. The position is one of the deepest on the AFA roster, although Hennessey's leadership could be missed.

Akron...The Zips continue to get boat-raced, now outscored 142-17 in losing their first three games after last Saturday's 59-14 beatdown courtesy of Cincinnati. HC Rob Ianello was forced to bench QB Clayton "Lone Ranger" Moore in the second half at Nippert Stadium after he was responsible for three turnovers (a fumble and two picks) that became Bearcat TDs in a 49-0 first half. Junior Patrick Nicely, last year's starter, was hardly more effective and Moore returned late to throw a pair of 4th Q TDs after the deficit had mushroomed to 59-0.

Arizona...WR Juron Criner, who underwent an emergency appendectomy just ten days earlier, returned to action at least a week sooner than expected for the Wildcats last Saturday vs. Stanford, catching six passes vs. the Cardinal. It mattered little in a numbing 37-10 loss, UA's seventh straight vs. FBS foes, with rumblings of heat beginning to turn up on HC Mike Stoops as Cats were again very imbalanced (just 52 YR after a mere 41 YR the previous week at Ok State) in lopsided home defeat.

Colorado State...Bad news for Ram defense, which lost its best player and perhaps the Mountain West's top defender when hybrid LB sr. Mychal Sisson, a starter since his freshman season, suffered a broken ankle in the Sept. 10 win over Northern Colorado and is likely lost for the season. CSU's stop unit had already seen DE Broderick Sargent KO'd by an ACL tear in the New Mexico opener. Reserves stepped into the breach admirably last week vs. Colorado before the Ram "D" wore out in the 4th Q of eventual 28-14 defeat in Denver.

Duke...RB Desmond Scott, last year's leading Blue Devil rusher with 511 yards, missed his second straight game due to a leg injury last week at Boston College. Duke gained only 81 YR in his absence at Chestnut Hill, but coped thanks to QB Sean Renfree's school-record 41 completions, and a missed 23-yard FG by Eagle PK Nate Freese in the final seconds. Scott is expected to be available for Saturday's game vs. Tulane.

Florida Atlantic...One of many reasons the Owls have started an ugly 0-2 is the absence of impact LB and all-name team Yourhighness Morgan, yet to be cleared to participate this season due to a concussion.

Florida State...Starting QB E.J. Manuel was KO'd with a shoulder injury in the 3rd quarter of last Saturday's major intersectional vs. Oklahoma, and his status is up in the air for this week's ACC showdown at Clemson. RS frosh backup QB Clint Trickett, son of FSU assistant Rick Trickett, led the Noles' only TD drive vs. the Sooners and kept FSU in the game until deep int he 4th Q of OU's eventual 23-13 win.

Georgia Tech...Those passing stats for Tech option QB Tevin Washington are no misprint; 17 of 28 for 637 yards and 7 TDs in the Jackets' first three games! Tech's fireworks continued with 768 yards of offense last Saturday vs. Kansas, with Paul Johnson's team scoring a hefty 59.7 ppg in three outings!

Hawaii...The Warriors were minus key slotback Jeremiah Ostrowski, who caught 19 passes in Hawaii's first two games, due to a foot injury last Saturday at UNLV. Although his replacement Justin Clapp caught 2 TD passes, its doubtful Ostrowski's absence was responsible for a poor showing by the Warriors, who gained only 208 yards and looked completely lethargic in a shock 40-20 loss to the Rebels. Ostrowski is likely to have returned by the Warriors' next WAC game, October 1, at La Tech.

Kansas...Explosive WR JaCorey Shepherd (27.5 yards per catch and 2 TDs in the first two games) missed last Saturday's Georgia Tech tilt with a strained groin, although with a bye upcoming he could be ready for the next game October 1 vs. Texas Tech. The Jayhawks needed a lot more help than Shepherd vs. the Jackets, especially on defense after allowing Tech to erupt for a whopping 768 yards in a 66-24 wipeout over KU.

Louisville...Starting QB Will Stein was KO'd in the 2nd Q last Saturday at Kentucky with a shoulder injury, opening the door for touted true frosh Teddy Bridgewater, a Miami area product, to take control of the offense a bit earlier than expected. Don't be surprised if Bridgewater keeps the job after completing 10 of 18 passes and 2 TDs in the Cards' 24-17 upset win at Lexington.

LSU...Explosive WR Russell Shepard is likely to return from suspension for the Tigers game this Saturday at West Virginia.

Maryland...Key WRs Ronnie Tyler and Quintin McCree were suspended indefinitely by HC Randy Edsall prior to last Saturday's game vs. West Virginia. Tyler, who was the Terps' leading career receiver on the roster with 67 catches, was recently charged with an assault relating to an incident in the dangerous Prince George's County. McCree was not charged in the incident but was similarly suspended for conduct unbecoming to the team. It took QB Danny O'Brien a while to adjust to their absences in an eventual 37-31 loss to the Mountaineers at College Park.

Memphis...RB Jerrell Rhodes, the Tigers' most-explosive back, missed his second straight game last week vs. Austin Peay (a rare Memphis with) with a lingering knee injury. His return date in unknown for Memphis, which could use him this Saturday vs. SMU at the Liberty Bowl.

Ole Miss...The war drums are beating for HC Houston Nutt in Oxford after last Saturday's ugly 30-7 loss at Vanderbilt, Nutt's third loss to the Dores in four years as Rebel coach. The QB situation continues to deteriorate, as starter Zack Stoudt tossed five picks at Nashville and was replaced by juco RS Randall Mackey in the second half, only to return to fire the last two of his five picks. Original starter Barry Brunetti didn't even get into the game at Vandy.

Navy...The Mid defense was thinned last Saturday at South Carolina, with starting LBs Jarrod Shannon (shoulder) and Mason Graham (knee) out vs. the Gamecocks. The Annapolis could have used them both to better slow SC RB Marcus Lattimore, who rumbled for 249 YR in the Cocks' narrow 24-21 win. D.c. Buddy Green hopes to have both back in the lineup for the next game, October 1, vs. hated Air Force.

Northwestern...Expect QB Dan Persa, who has been rehabbing from Achilles tendon surgery, to be in the starting lineup for the first time this season when NU next takes the field October 1 at Illinois. HC Pat Fitzgerald indicated that Persa could have been used in "emergency duty" last weekend at Army; that definition apparently didn't include ineffectiveness by starter Kain Colter, who was pulled in the 2nd half after three straight possessions with gaining a first down. Backup Trevor Siemian tossed a 62-yard TD to Jeremy Ebert (who broke the short pass for a long gain) in relief, but the Cats' inability to control the West Point option and its 381 rush yards proved too much in a 21-14 Army win.

Oklahoma...Star LB Travis Lewis returned to the lineup earlier than expected from a recent broken toe, back on the field last Saturday in the Sooners' 23-13 win at Florida State.

Oregon State...The banged-up Beavers took advantage of last week's bye and hope to have the services of RB Malcolm Agnew (223 YR in opener vs. Sac State but out with a hamstring vs. Wisconsin) and TE Joe Halahuni (66 career catches but has missed both games with shoulder problems) for this week's game vs. visiting UCLA. It's unknown, however, if OSU will have available leading WR Markus Wheaton (14 catches but injured ribs at Wisconsin) or the explosive but long absent WR James Rodgers, still rehabbing his knee that was injured last October at Arizona. Sources say HC Mike Riley, dealing with a QB controversy in Corvallis, is likely to start RS frosh Sean Mannion over 2010 starter Ryan Katz for this week's game vs. the Bruins.

Purdue...QB Robert Marve, out since last year after ACL injury, returned to action last Saturday vs. SE Missouri State and completed 7 of 8 passes in the 2nd Q of eventual 59-0 Boilermaker blowout. Caleb TerBush remains Danny Hope's starting QB for the moment, but Marve's availability now gives Purdue some extra options that were absent when Marve and Rob Henry (out for the year with a knee injury) were both unavailable.

San Jose State...Don't be surprised if HC Mike McIntyre makes his second QB switch in September and goes back to original starter Matt Faulkner for this week's game vs. New Mexico State. Senior Faulkner, who has earlier relinquished the job, relieved his ineffective replacement Dasmen Stewart in the second half last Saturday vs. Nevada. Faulker completed 10 of 19 passes and ignited a late Spartan rally that fell just short in a 17-14 loss to the Wolf Pack.

TCU...RB Ed Wesley, last year's leading Frog rusher, missed his second straight game last week vs. UL-Monroe with a shoulder injury. The deep TCU backfield compensated effectively while churning out 205 yards rushing vs. the Warhawks, and might see Wesley held out one more week vs. FCS Portland State before the Metroplex showdown vs. SMU on September 30.

Texas...As expected, HC Mack Brown has benched original starting QB Garrett Gilbert, who is unlikely to see the field the rest of the season if sophomore Case McCoy and frosh David Ash continue to perform as they have since relieving Gilbert vs. BYU on Sept. 10. McCoy took the majority of the snaps and completed 12 of 15 passes for 2 TDs last week at UCLA, with Ash completing all 3 of his throws in a 49-20 romp past the Bruins.

Texas Tech...Those passing stats for the Red Raiders last Saturday at New Mexico were no mirage; 45 of 50 completions for 446 yards and 6 TD passes in a 59-13 wipeout over the Lobos. Starting QB Seth Doege gets credit for 40 of those completions in 44 attempts as well as 5 TDs in the rout at Albuquerque.

Tulsa...QB G.J. Kinne was KO'd with an apparent knee injury in the first half of last Saturday's (or should we say early Sunday morning) game vs. Oklahoma State and did not return to the game. Backup Kalen Henderson struggled in Kinne's absence, completing just 6 of 20 passes in the Cowboys' lopsided 59-33 win.

UCLA...HC Rick Neuheisel yanked QB Kevin Prince, returning to the lineup for the first time since being forced out of the opener vs. Houston with a neck stinger, after three picks in his first seven passes during last Saturday's humbling 49-20 loss to Texas. Backup Richard Brehaut, who has started more games than the injury-prone Prince since last season, completed only 8 of 19 passes in an ugly beatdown administered by the Longhorns, as the heat gets turned up another notch on Neuheisel.

UTEP...With QB Nick Lamaison sidelined another couple of weeks due to a shoulder injury suffered Sept. 10 at SMU, backup Jay Hall was at the controls for the Miners last Saturday at New Mexico State, and led UTEP to a 16-10 win despite completing only 9 of his 28 passes.

Vanderbilt...Look out for the Dores, undefeated for new HC James Franklin and off of their biggest SEC win in 40 years after last Saturday's 30-7 romp pass beleaguered Ole Miss. Vandy succeeded without a couple of key offensive cogs, RB Warren Norman (knee) and TE Brandon Barden (ankle), but replacements stepped in nicely, especially RB Zac Stacy , who zoomed for 132 YR vs. the Rebs, including a 77-yard TD jaunt.

UAB...Star RB Pat Shed, who missed the Blazers' Florida opener with a sports hernia and wasn't expected to return until Sept. 24 at ECU, was back in action last Saturday vs. Tulane. Underlining UAB's plight, Shed's mere 21 yards on 7 carries led all UAB rushers in a lopsided 49-10 defeat that turns up the heat on HC Neil Callaway. A lot of good new d.c. Tommy West is doing the Blazers, too, allowing 44 ppg the first two outings and surrendering 540 yards to a Green Wave outfit held without a TD in its previous game vs. Tulsa.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-19-2011, 05:43 PM

NC State visits Cincinnati Thursday night

NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (2-1)
at CINCINNATI BEARCATS (2-1)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -7.5

A pair of 2-1 teams duel to kick off the weekend in college football when NC State of the ACC visits Cincinnati of the rapidly-dissolving Big East Conference.

A year ago, QB Russell Wilson shredded the Bearcats defense for 333 passing yards and 3 TD, as part of 491 total yards for the Wolfpack in a 30-19 home win. Wilson is gone, and new starting QB Mike Glennon is not the same kind of athlete, but he’s completing 64.1% of his passes and has an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games this year. Cincinnati is 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS against BCS conference opponents over the past two years. NC STATE is the pick to cover the spread, as led by Tom O’Brien, who boasts a remarkable 22-11 ATS record as an underdog as the Wolfpack head coach.

The FoxSheets show a rare six-star coaching trend to further support O’Brien and the Wolfpack:

Tom O’Brien is 15-1 ATS (93.8%, +13.9 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders as the coach of NC STATE.

State lost its only game against an FBS opponent this year, at Wake Forest 34-27. Glennon has done a good job spreading the wealth, as 10 players already have three receptions on the year, led by T.J. Graham (12 rec, 252 yards, 2 TD) and Tobias Palmer (13 rec, 170 yds, 1 TD). The Wolfpack already have seven defensive interceptions, 13 sacks (tied for 2nd in nation) and have carted a +5 turnover margin in their three contests. However gambling to force turnovers hasn’t fully worked as NC State ranks 103rd in the nation in passing defense (271 YPG).

This is good news for Cincinnati’s great quarterback Zach Collaros, who actually had a better passer efficiency rating than Wilson in last year’s meeting, completing 19-of-31 passes for 310 yards and three touchdowns. Collaros has also started 2011 on fire, completing 43-of-69 passes for 562 yards, 7 TD and zero INT in three games this year. D.J. Woods continues to be his go-to guy, with 15 catches for 232 yards. Defensively, the Bearcats are very opportunistic, as they lead the nation with 13 takeaways, and are one of a handful of schools with only one giveaway. However, like NC State, the risk-taking nature of the secondary has led to a bunch of passing yards, as Cincy places 94th among the 120 FBS schools in passing defense (258 YPG).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-19-2011, 07:00 PM

College football odds: Week 4 opening line report

Through three weeks, Alabama coach Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide have clearly lived up to billing. The defense has been stifling, the offense has been adequate and Saban has been able to keep players fresh by displaying that dynamic depth chart he’s compiled.

But let’s face it, Kent State and North Texas at home are walks in the park for a team like Alabama. And anyone who saw Penn State barely escape Temple on Saturday should realize that the Crimson Tide’s 27-11 win in Happy Valley last week doesn’t look so impressive, after all.

Things are about to change, though. The SEC schedule opens this week, and Alabama plays host to Arkansas.

“Obviously, Arkansas has a very good team, so we’re going to have to execute a lot better,” Saban said. “But your effort, your mental and physical toughness, all those things should be at the same level all the time if you’re playing the way you’re supposed to play.”

And it’s that kind of thinking that has the pros in Las Vegas still leaning heavily on Alabama. Sure, Arkansas is a tough, talented, conference foe. But it looks like Saban has the makings of something special, and the lines are proof positive.

“Well, it’s a marquee SEC matchup, and it’s the beginning of a lot of them for Alabama,” Pete Korner, of Esportclub, LLC, told ***********. “But they’re really looking good so far. They should win here easily. Arkansas is OK, but I give it no chance of an upset.”

Korner established Alabama as a 13-point favorite.

“I think we have,” Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino said, “a lot to work on to get ready for Alabama.”

Korner concurs. And with that, let’s take a look at some of next week’s other marquee games:

N.C. State (+4) at Cincinnati

“Not much of a game on a Thursday night here,” Korner said. “We had some discussion on this one, as we don’t really have a good feel for either team right now. Cincinnati’s at home, though, and may have something to show.”

Florida State (-3.5) at Clemson

“Disappointed in how Florida State finished against Oklahoma. We were hoping they were going to stay close,” Korner said. “But we expect them to do what they need to do this week to get back. We’re expecting them to have a bounce back, though that’s always tough to do in the ACC on the road.”

Notre Dame (-2.5) at Pitt

“Not big fans of Pitt right now. Not much to say there,” Korner said. “Notre Dame has been moving the ball well, and I just think they’re going to roll right over Pitt, to tell you the truth.”

LSU (-4) at West Virginia

“We had LSU favored all of the way. Good game, good matchup, but clearly, we know they’re the better team, and they should take care of business here,” Korner said. “We feel the number is pretty fair, as West Virginia can definitely win. We just don’t expect it.”

Colorado (+15.5) at Ohio State

“Tough task for Colorado, though neither team has shown much yet,” Korner said. “But Colorado doesn’t travel well, never has, and we expect Ohio State to get back up and really get ready for Big Ten play.”

Oklahoma State (+3) at Texas A&M

“In this one, we’re expecting a close, conference game between two very equal teams,” Korner said. “We left it at the three, and that’s just the basic, home-field field goal, nothing more.”

Missouri (+20) at Oklahoma

“We knew we needed a big number here,” Korner said. “No reason to make a deal with Oklahoma here. Just stick it up as high as you can, and see what the public does with it.”

Tulsa (+32) at Boise State

“A similar one here, as we definitely needed to go high,” Korner said. “Especially with Tulsa having some injury problems. I’d hate to be rooting for Tulsa. So, we stick it high, root for Boise, and see what happens.”

Oregon (-14) at Arizona

“Not much of a game, as we really feel that Oregon has turned a corner,” Korner said. “They’ve had a few games where they could get back playing like they play, and they’re really in a groove right now. Arizona did not look good against Stanford, and Oregon’s better.”

**StarDust Bum** · 09-19-2011, 07:16 PM

Top 5 NCAAF Trends

CENFL/BYU CENFL are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.

UCLA/OREST Under is 7-0-1 in OREST last 8 games overall.

CONN/BUFF Under is 8-0 in BUFF last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

CONN/BUFF CONN are 8-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

ULLAF/FLINT ULLAF are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-19-2011, 10:51 PM

Oklahoma State Cowboys And Texas A&M Square Off

A big-time Big 12 Conference matchup on the gridiron that doesn't involve either the Sooners or Longhorns – if not both – has been a rare sight over the years. It makes the collision this Saturday at Kyle Field all the more important.

Amid all sorts of conference realignment talk throughout college sports, the Texas A&M Aggies host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a game that will start the Big 12 dominoes to fall. The way things are going, this matchup between a couple of top 10 teams in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll could be the last time the two schools meet on a gridiron as conference rivals.

College football odds opened with the Aggies favored by a field goal at home. The total has not been released yet, but it should be among the higher numbers on Saturday's slate given the recent history between A&M and Okie State, not to mention their two high-powered offenses.

Oklahoma State (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) comes in second in the country averaging 601 yards per game, nearly 420 of that through the air. The Cowboys are third in scoring (54.3 PPG).

A big chunk of those yards as well as the points can be directly attributed to quarterback Brandon Weeden and wide receiver Justin Blackmon. Weeden has completed over 72 percent of his 131 aerials for 1,154 yards and eight scores. Twenty-seven of the completions have been hauled in by Blackmon, three of them for touchdowns.

The Cowboys are coming off a strange game this past week when they routed Tulsa, 59-33, as 13½-point road favorites. The game at Tulsa's Chapman Stadium was delayed for over three hours due to severe thunderstorms in the area, and kickoff didn't come until after midnight.

Blackmon was actually held under 100 yards receiving for the first time in 14 games, but Weeden found nine other receivers to throw to as part of his 369-yard effort. Sophomore tailback Joseph Randle rumbled over 100 yards for a third consecutive contest, scoring three times. Texas A&M defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter is no doubt scrambling for ways to defend this team.

If there's a shortcoming for the Cowboys, at least statistically, it's on the defensive side of the ball. Louisiana-Lafayette and Tulsa scored 34 and 33 points respectively against head coach Mike Gundy's 'D' while allowing those two schools to average over 400 yards of total offense.

Nick Foles and Arizona also found plenty of passing lanes a couple of weeks ago, but the Cowboys still held the Wildcats to just two scores in a 37-14 win. It's the only Oklahoma State game so far to stay 'under' the total.

Texas A&M (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has plenty of offensive weapons of its own and enters 18th in the country with an average of nearly 490 yards per game. Senior Ryan Tannehill directs the show with Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael in the backfield plus his own group of talented receivers led by Jeff Fuller and Ryan Swope.

The Aggies are off last week's 37-7 victory over Idaho, failing to cover the 36½-point spread when the Vandals pushed across the goal in the fourth quarter for their only score of the evening. It came against defensive backups after the first-teamers had choked off anything Brian Reader and the Idaho offense threw at them.

The Cowboys have reeled off three straight wins in this series, averaging over 43 points per victory. They doubled up A&M in 2008, 56-28, with the last two meetings some of the most entertaining games the past couple of seasons.

Oklahoma State booted a 40-yarder as the clock ran out for a 38-35 victory at Stillwater in 2010. The Aggies blew a 21-7 halftime lead in that one. The defeat kept Texas A&M out of the Big 12 title game, and a shot at a BCS Bowl. That was preceded by OSU holding off the Aggies for a 36-31 victory at this site in 2009.

Texas A&M's last win over Oklahoma State came here at Kyle Field in 2007, a 24-23 decision in which the Aggies trailed 17-zip at the half.

The Aggies could be without tight end Michael Lamothe for this game, the junior officially questionable due to a concussion. He and sophomore Hutson Prioleau have been splitting time at the position through the first two games.

Oklahoma State isn't reporting any new injuries.

Kickoff in College Station is 3:30 p.m. (ET) with the game part of the ABC regional broadcast.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-19-2011, 10:54 PM

West Virginia Offense Meets LSU Tigers Defense

Unlike some BCS title contenders, LSU certainly can't be accused of ducking anybody on its 2011 schedule. For the third time in four games, the Tigers face a ranked team this week. Moreover, none of those three battles will have been played in Baton Rouge.

The task this Saturday for LSU (3-0), fourth in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll, is a trek to Morgantown to face a dangerous West Virginia (3-0) squads that ranks 24th. Kickoff for the ESPN special is slated for 3:30 p.m. (ET), with early prices seeing LSU posted as a 6-point favorite.

The contest marks a chance for new Mountaineer coach Dana Holgorsen to make a statement on the national stage after his WVU troops survived a 37-31 scare at Maryland last weekend. The Mounties, staked to a 34-10 lead in the third quarter, had to hold on for dear life as the Terps rallied to within three points early in the final quarter before WVU held on.

Holgorsen has imported his high-tech spread attack from a stint as offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State, where his offense posted big numbers just at it did at previous stop Houston. The subtle differences from the “spread option” looks of predecessors Bill Stewart and Rich Rodriguez seem to have been quickly mastered by QB Geno Smith, who has already passed for 1008 yards and seven scores in just three weeks.

Big East sources, however, are wondering if the Holgorsen offense has become too imbalanced toward the pass. The infantry diversion has practically disappeared from the new West Virginia offensive mix, with the rush game ranking 107th nationally while gaining just 79 yards per game and a paltry 2.6 yards per carry.

So far, Smith has been able to compensate through the air, but one wonders how the Mounties will deal with the sort of big-time defense they have yet to face...until Saturday, that is.

The challenge of slowing Holgorsen’s West Virginia spread does not look to be a task too far for John Chavis’ Baton Rouge stop unit which has already had to deal with similarly designed and high-powered Oregon and Mississippi State strike forces. And after holding the potent Maroon without a TD in last week’s 19-6 win at Starkville, the quick-footed LSU defense, loaded with speed, appears well-suited to similarly disrupt Holgorsen’s attack.

Further, thanks in part to the offensive imbalance, West Virginia has experienced extended lulls on the attack end, such as September 10 when trailing lower-division Norfolk State at halftime before erupting for 45 second-half points. The second half last week at College Park saw the offense unable to sustain drives to keep its tiring defense off of the field, contributing to Maryland’s rally.

If there remains a question about LSU, it’s what might happen if the Tigers fall behind and are forced to play catch-up with QB Jarrett Lee. He's well-suited to command a bulletproof Tiger “O” featuring the run, but perhaps out of his depth if forced into a steady diet of passes when playing from behind.

So far, however, Lee has done what has been required and been more than adequate as a replacement the suspended Jordan Jefferson, tossing only one pick in three starts.

Les Miles’ LSU recipe, as illustrated in both the Oregon and Mississippi State wins, is to avoid putting Lee in such a predicament. Instead the Tigers played conservatively on offense while featuring the power thrusts of slashing RBs Spencer Ware and Michael Ford, and waiting for Chavis’ defense or the special teams to create scoring opportunities. So far, this strategy has worked like a charm.

Moreover, the Tiger offense likely adds an extra dimension this week as explosive WR Russell Shepard is expected to be available after an early-season suspension.

Big-game experience, as well as intersectional success, makes a stronger case for LSU as well. The Tigers, calloused by annual SEC wars, have fared exceptionally well in non-conference action under Miles. Indeed, “The Hat” has not lost a regular-season non-SEC game since arriving at Baton Rouge in 2005, winning 25 in a row, with a solid 14-8 mark vs. the number against FBS-level foes in those games.

Counting bowls, Miles is 19-9 vs. the number against FBS non-SEC foes since 2005.

LSU’s non-conference regular-season win streak now stands at 35 games, dating to the 2002 opener at Virginia Tech, when Nick Saban’s Tigers tasted a 26-8 defeat at Blacksburg. The Tigers are also 20-10 vs. the line over that span vs. non-SEC FBS opponents.

On the other hand, note that West Virginia has been a feisty underdog play for several years, standing 9-2 as the “short” for Stewart and Rodriguez the past six campaigns. Included in that total was a competitive 20-14 straight-up loss, but pointspread cover, last year at Baton Rouge.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-19-2011, 11:32 PM

TGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPDATE...LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE?

Central Florida at BYU (Friday)...UCF is profitable 21-7 vs. spread L2+Ys, and 15-8 as a road dog since 2005. BYU only 25-27 as Provo chalk since 2000. Knights are playing with a chip on their shoulder after falling out of the Top 25 TY after finishing ranked in 2010.

Oregon at ARIZONA...UA has hung tough with UO, covering 5 of last 6 (as avg. 11-pt. underdog), and springing DD upsets in '06 & '07. Wildcat QB Nick Foles had career-best 448 YP vs. Ducks LY. But UO's hurry-up "blur" attack wore down Cats, outscoring them 34-10 after intermission in 48-29 victory in Eugene LY.

Uab at EAST CAROLINA...UAB looking forward to rematch after blowing 42-34 lead with just 9:41 left in eventual 54-42 defeat in Birmingham LY. Blazer QB Bryan Ellis (418 YP) outperformed ECU pilot Dominique Davis (331 YP), but long Pirate punt return and recovered fumble in UAB territory helped ECU overcome deficit.

Ohio at RUTGERS...Ohio is a noteworthy 10-4 as away dog since 2007, while Rutgers just 7-11 as New Brunswick chalk over same time frame.

Southern Miss at VIRGINIA...UVA veterans eager to get another crack at USM after blowing 34-17 third-Q lead in stinging 37-34 setback in Hattiesburg in 2009 (first-ever meeting).

Tulsa at BOISE STATE...BSU can wear its distracting blue unis this week and next vs. Nevada before Mountain West play, which will require a change in outfit color at home per league mandate. BCS-buster Broncos are 41-18 vs. spread on the "blue carpet" since 2000.

Connecticut at BUFFALO...UConn has won and covered last 6 vs. UB (avg. score 35-9). Huskies outscored Bulls 31-7 after intermission in 45-21 home win LY.

Florida State at CLEMSON...FSU's now-starting QB E.J. Manuel capably filled in for injured Christian Ponder LY, hitting 15 of 24 for 210 yds. & rushing for 71 more in last-second 16-13 win in Tallahassee. 'Noles kicked winning 55-yd. FG on final play!

North Carolina at GEORGIA TECH...Suspension-plagued UNC (6 starters were out LY) eager for some payback after blowing 24-17 lead in 30-24 series setback LY at Chapel Hill. Proud Heel "D" geeked while allowing season-high 372 YR vs. Engineers.

Western Michigan at ILLINOIS...Negative role for Illinois' beleaguered HC Ron Zook, who is 2-9 vs. spread hosting non-conference foes since 2006 (1-1 TY).

Florida at KENTUCKY...UF has taken 24 straight in series, including 4 consecutive covers. In last three meetings, Gators have outscored Cats 73-0 in first period.

Virginia Tech at MARSHALL...VT is an eye-popping 25-8 vs. spread as a visitor since 2004 (0-1 TY).

Temple at MARYLAND...Temple is solid 13-4 vs. line vs. non-conference foes since joining the MAC in 2007. Personal revenge game for new Maryland HC Randy Edsall, whose UConn squad suffered 30-16 upset vs. Temple in 2010.

Smu at MEMPHIS...UM has been a poor "investment" since late 2008, recording 8-19 vs. spread mark last 27 on board (1-2 TY).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2011, 02:29 PM

Florida State, Clemson Begin ACC Schedules

The home team has covered 11 of the last 13 in this ACC series.
The early lead in the ACC Atlantic Division will be on the line at Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon, as NCAA football betting enthusiasts can sink their teeth into a crucial tilt between the Florida State Seminoles and the Clemson Tigers.

This is the first ACC test of the year for both of these teams, and it can be seen nationally on ESPN and ESPN3.com at 3:30 p.m. (ET).

The Seminoles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) are coming off of a valiant effort against the No. 1 team in the land, the Oklahoma Sooners. We give head coach Jimbo Fisher and company credit for trying to hang in there with the Sooners, but injuries just mounted up too quickly and the talent differential really showed down the stretch in a 23-13 defeat.

There is always a fear about how a team is going to bounce back from a loss, especially in a tough fixture like this one. But for Florida State, ninth in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll, the concern is about all of the injuries left from the Oklahoma defeat.

The biggest problem could be the health of EJ Manuel. The junior out of Virginia Beach showed some flashes of brilliance against a stout Oklahoma defense, but he left the game with a shoulder injury and is considered day-to-day. Should he not be able to go, it will be up to Clint Trickett, son of offensive line coach Rick Trickett, to make his first career start.

Willie Haulstead isn't like to play for a third straight week due to a concussion, and that's bad news for a receiving corps that lost Kenny Shaw to a concussion following a jarring blow between two Oklahoma defenders this past Saturday night.

Jarred 'Scooter' Haggins has a broken hand and is expected to miss at least three more weeks, and leading receiver Bert Reid is still up in the air with an ankle injury that kept him out of last weekend's defeat.

On the flip side of things, Clemson (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) sits 30th in the Don Best poll and made its debut in both the AP and coaches top 25 polls. Dabo Swinney's gang is ready to state its case as one of the top teams in the ACC this year. And why not?

The Tigers ended a losing streak dating back to 1951 against Auburn last week, and in the process, they ended the defending champs' 17-game winning streak.

Everyone in Clemson was waiting for Tajh Boyd to come up with a fantastic game, and he picked a great time to do it in Week 3 against Auburn. The Tigers' signal caller had the best game of his career, throwing for 386 yards and four TDs. He also rushed for 30 of the team's 238 yards on the ground on the day.

Clemson racked up 624 yards against Auburn on a whopping 92 plays. The Tigers won't get in nearly that many snaps against FSU, but if they'll still be in fantastic shape if they can average anywhere near that same 6.8 yards per play.

The home team has typically dominated this series, winning all but one meeting since 2001. The Seminoles have lost four straight visits to Death Valley, all but one of which have come by at least 16 points.

Clemson is 5-1 ATS over the last six seasons, with the home crew 11-2 ATS in the last 13 clashes of these ACC rivals.

Still, despite the injuries and the history, the Seminoles opened as 3-point favorites on the NCAA football odds before Clemson backers drove that down as low as 1 ½-points by Tuesday morning. The total has risen a point since the start to 50 ½.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2011, 02:32 PM

News & Notes - Week 4

September 20, 2011

Week 4

It was a strange game between Iowa State and Connecticut on Friday night. After the first 9 poss of the game, Conn had a 131-(-7) yd edge. ISU QB Steele Jantz's first 4 passes resulted in 0-4 with 3 int, but the problem with UC was that they didn't take advantage of the opportunities. They were int'd at the ISU40 and then K Teggart who had hit 13 straight FG's, missed a 41 yarder and with 12:58 left in the 2Q, missed a 43 yarder. ISU got a key play when on 3&19, a jump ball which was caught by Reynolds for a 48 yd pass and ISU would continue on for a TD. QB Jantz was inj'd at the end of the half and looked doubtful to return but played the entire 2H. UC led 10-7 at the half, but ISU ran a double reverse pass for a 40 yd TD to make it 14-10. UC went ahead with 12:51 left, 20-17 but ISU answered with a TD with 9:08 left. UC punted with 6:57 left, was SOD on 4&2 at the ISU38 with 1:48 left then from the ISU44 their Hail Mary was knocked down on the last play...

Boise State's Kellen Moore must be considered one of the Heisman frontrunners. He had an impressive Friday night outing at Toledo, the same team that took Ohio St to the wire the previous week. Moore hit 32-42-455 yds as BSU rolled up 32 FD's in their 40-15 win. Both teams blew opportunities late with UT fmbl'g at the BSU9, BSU going on a 62/12pl drive and being SOD at the UT29 but BSU passed yet another test and will be a double digit favorite in the rest of their games...

Purdue was coming off a loss to Rice where Rice blocked a FG at the end of the game and PU took out their frustration on SE Missouri. PU actually fmbl'd on its 2nd poss and settled for a 19 yard FG on its 3rd but their next 5 poss all went for TD's and Robert Marve saw his first action since coming back from an ACL and QB'd 2 series with the team scoring on both poss as he hit 7-8-91. PU had a 38-0 lead at the half with a 396-57 yd edge. In the 2H PU only had 3 series but they were 68/8, 83/11 and 80/8pl all with TerBush back at QB all resulting in TD's in the 59-0 win...

Auburn had its 17-game win streak snapped and they also had a 14 game win streak in the series vs Clemson snapped. AU actually led 21-7 with 8:54 left 2Q but CU scored 2 TD's incl one with 1:11 left to tie it at 21. CU scored a TD on a 65 yd pass on their first drive of the 3Q and never trailed again. At the end of the game, CU got a 38 yd FG with 11:48 left to lead 38-24. It appeared AU was ready for another one of its patented comebacks and got to the CU8 but they were int'd at the 5 with 9:34 left and CU went on an amazing 73/18pl drive running out the clock and taking a knee at the AU18...

Georgia Tech was playing with revenge for the previous year's loss to Kansas in which they came in ranked and finished with a losing season. Their game was competitive at the half as GT only led 24-17 with a 337-246 yd edge but it turned into a record breaking day for GT. They opened the game with a school record 95 yd TD run by Orwin Smith to make it 7-0. They opened the 3Q on the first play with a 63 yd TD run by Peeples and would score TD's on their first 6 poss of the 2H to blow it open, 66-17 with 5:13 left before Kansas moved 63 yds for a TD. GT set a school record for rushing yards with 604 (previous high 558 vs VMI in 1975) and total yards with 768 (previous high 706 vs The Citadel, 1948)...

Penn State had 308-197 yd and 18-13 FD edges vs Temple but missed a 45 yd FG, had a 49 yd FG blk'd and then had a 36 yd FG bounce off the goal post. PSU led 14-10 and TU did get the ball down the field with a pers foul to the PSU34 and on 4&10 was sacked and fmbl'd and PSU just fell on it at the 41 with 1:01 left and ran out the clock...

Pittsburgh appeared to have this game locked up leading 27-10 with 12:00 left but Iowa made a miracle comeback. Pitt actually led by as much as 24-3 with 3:11 left in the 3Q. UI finished with a 475-422 yd edge. UI would go 73/7pl, 64/7pl (after Pitt was SOD on 4&3 at UI36) and 64/7pl for the last for a TD with 2:51 left to take the lead and Pitt's final poss ended on an int at the UI43...

Bowling Green did finish with 28-18 FD and 514-396 yd edges, but gained 212 yards on their final 3 poss when they trailed 28-14. BG had a 6-1 TO deficit. Trailing 28-14 BG was int'd at the Wyoming 47 but WY was SOD at the BG36. BG was SOD at the WY8 with 8:11 left. BG went 67/8pl scoring a TD with 4:16 left and WY punted with 1:18 left and BG had no time-outs. They went 89/10pl getting a 10 yd TD pass with :03 left by WY blk'd the xp and held on for the upset...

Western Michigan had lost 5 straight to Central Michigan and HC Cubit said it was like an elephant in the room, they needed to beat CM. They simply dominated. They led 24-0 at the half and opened it up to 41-7 in the 4Q. CM gained 173 yds on their final 3 poss making it a misleading final statistically as WM gained just 16 yards in that span. Those 3 drives incl a TD when trailing 41-7 in the 44-14 rout...

Louisiana-Monroe played even better than the final score vs TCU as they led 17-14 mid-2Q. TCU got a TD with 5:16 left 1H to lead 21-17 and ULM missed a 43 yd FG on the final play of the half. TCU used 2 key plays at the start of the 3Q to break it open. They got a 94 yd KR TD to open the 3Q then after a fmbl, drove 28 yds for a TD and led 35-17. TCU's final score came when ULM was SOD on 4&12 at the 50 with 3:40 left. TCU added a 28 yd FG with :28 left. TCU only had a 23-19 FD edge...

Duke vs Boston College was an interesting game. BC led 19-7 with a TD with 1:21 left in the half but Duke went 63/4pl getting a 21 yd TD pass with :30 left to get back in it, 19-14. The 2H was dominated by Duke. Duke went 73/10pl but was int'd at the BC6. Duke went 46/9pl but missed a 33 yd FG, they went 70/14pl for a TD and missed the 2 pt conv then went 51/10pl and they were SOD on 4&5 at the BC30 with 4:15 left, up by 1. BC had earlier missed an xp and took over at their 21 with 2:24 left. They had a FD at the Duke14. On 3&1 they ran into the line for no gain and lined up for the chipshot game winning FG from 23 yards out and it bounced off the upright with :43 left and Duke pulled the upset...

It was a story of 2H's in the West Virginia-Maryland game. After 1 series in the 3Q where WV opened going 78/7pl for a TD, WV had a 380-176 yd edge and led 34-10. MD then went 71/11pl but was SOD on 4&gl at the 6, went 61/5pl for a TD, 44/7pl (after int) for a TD with 1:20 left in the 3Q then 66/12pl for a TD to pull within 34-31. WV had 2 FD's in that span. WV then went 65/14pl settling for a 21 yd FG with 4:42 left in the game to go up by 6. MD got to the WV35 but on 3&8 were int'd at the 13 and WV held on. WV had a 480-477 yd edge in the shootout with both teams using no huddle offenses...

Florida International ret'd a fmbl 51 yds for a TD and won despite losing TY Hilton to a hamstring injury in the 1Q. Central Florida led 7-0 and was going in for another score in the final seconds of the half. They got to the FIU28 when on 2&16 with :16 left Godfrey was sk'd and fmbl'd and FIU ret'd it 51 yds for a TD. Early 3Q UCF fmbl'd a punt at its own 8 and FIU rec'd. Offsides set up FIU at the 4 and they got a TD run and totaled 4 yds offense for 2 TD's and a 14-7 lead. They did go 85/9pl for a 27 yd FG, 17-7. Late in the game UCF settled for a 31 yd FG with 1:52 left but FIU rec'd the onside kick and won despite being outgained 300-238...

Arkansas State had been avg 481 ypg but Virginia Tech, after allowing a 51 yd pass on ASU's first play which set up a TD 2pl later and put ASU up 7-0, allowed just 210 yards the rest of the game while VT finished with 427. Logan Thomas hit 21-33-292. VT missed a 40 yd FG and in the 2H was int'd and ret'd to the ASU42, int'd at the ASU4 and SOD at the ASU27 on their final 3 poss...

Tulane was actually a 13-point underdog to UAB and TU dominated. They had 28-10 FD and a 540-193 yd edges. UAB even got a 92 yd KR TD to only be down 28-7 at half with TU having a 305-122 yd edge. TU got 39 and 55 yd IR TD's the latter when they were safely up 42-10 and TU even ended the game taking over with 7:40 left driving 73/8pl and were at the UAB8 at the end...

North Carolina had not won an ACC opener since winning at Wake Forest in 2000 and Virginia had a 468-401 yd edge. UVA actually had a 228-173 yd edge in the 1H but trailed 14-3 as they missed a 45 yd FG, settled for a 38 yd FG, were SOD at the NC36 and fmbl'd at the NC37. The Tar Heels opened it to 28-10 and they fmbl'd at the UVA5 with 13:05 left. UVA got a TD with 5:09 left to pull within 11 and then got to the NC36 and were int'd at the 14 with 2:53 to go...

QB Dan Persa missed another game for Northwestern. Kain Colter hit 12-23-89 and Army dominated with 24-14 FD and 40:19 to 19:41 TOP edges. Army went on 18 and 10pl drives for a TD and a missed 47 yd FG. NW went 51/11pl to tie it with 5:23 left in the half but missed a 26 yd FG on the final play of the half. Army, up 14-7 went on a 14pl drive but missed a 25 yd FG and NW got a 62 yd TD pass with 6:03 left but Army went 75/9pl for a TD with 2:49 left and NW was SOD at the Army33 on their last drive...

San Jose State opted to sit Matt Faulkner and start Dasmen Stewart and Nevada was more impressive than the score would indicate with Stewart in the lineup. At the half NV had a 270-52 yd edge but only led 14-7 because they fmbl'd at their own 34 and SJS got a 2pl TD "drive" and at the end of the half NV was SOD on 4&gl at the 1 with :44 left. It was 17-7 when Faulkner came off the bench. His 4 drives ended on a fmbl at the NV38, a 10pl drive with a missed 37 yd FG, 72/9pl drive for a TD to pull SJS within 17-14 with 7:59 left and then a 69/13pl drive to the 15 where he was int'd in the EZ...

Alabama was even more dominant than the final as at the half they had a 282-25 yd edge but settled for 37 and 26 yd FG's and missed a 36 yd FG and only led 20-0. Trent Richardson rushed for 167 yds on 11 carries and Eddie Lacy for 161 on 9 as Bama rolled up a 586-169 yd edge. North Texas did have 2 chances to avoid the shutout but had a 42 yd FG blk'd at the start of the 3Q and went for it on 4&gl from the 3 with 3:28 left and fired incomplete...

USC got a big win over Syracuse, at one point leading 38-10 in the 4Q. Up 38-17, USC took over at their 17 with 5:32 left and worked it down to a 1st & gl at the 5 where they ran out the clock. Matt Barkley hit 26-39-324 yds...

While Marshall turned it over six times vs Ohio, the Bobcats were pretty much dominant. The Bobcats settled for 20 and 21 yard FG's in the 1H and led 34-7 and opened it up to 44-7 early in the 4Q. Marshall gained 92 of their yards on their final 2 drives as OU reeled off 559 yards...

Kansas State rolled to a 34-0 halftime lead vs Kent State. The Cats did have a 45 yd IR TD but also had drives of 95/6pl and 98/17pl. The closest the Flashes got to scoring was taking over at their 21 late 3Q and drove 76/19pl and had a 1st & gl at the 3 but were SOD after a pen at the 9 with 5:53 left...

Buffalo led 7-0 after 1Q but Ball State led 21-7 at the half. Buffalo battled back but did have an extra point blocked and also had a 2 pt conversion fail. Buffalo got a TD with 6:28 left to lead 25-21 when BSU went on a 75/18pl drive. The drive included improbable conversions on 4&13 and 4&7 and their TD with :22 left allowed BSU to escape with a 28-25 win...

Nebraska started 3 walk-ons on the O-line for the first time since 1998 due to injuries. NU scored at least 40 pts in each of the first 3 games for the first time since their 1995 National Title season. While they were not dominant, they still went from a 20-7 halftime lead to a 44-17 lead. They got a TD then Washington fmbl'd the KO and they added another TD :09 later to go up 34-17 then added a 29 yd FG and an 86/9pl TD drive and with just 12:18 left were up by 27. UW got a pair of TD's on a 32 yd drive (after 64 yd KR) and 53 yd drive but then NU rec'd the onside kick and got ahead ATS again, 51-31 with 4:50 left. UW got a 52/1pl TD pass with 4:27 left to get back in the backdoor. NU rec'd the onside kick and got to the UW21 but was SOD. UW got 1 FD & was int'd on a deep pass at the NU23...

Even though Northern Illinois HC Dave Doeren had been an asst on the Wisconsin staff the previous 5 years, they were outgained by the Badgers 621-237 and outFD'd 34-11. They actually made a game of it in the 1H tying it at 7 with 1:59 left in the 1Q with UW missing a 50 yd FG. UW went 51, 97 and 77 yards on their next 3 drives for TD's to lead 28-7 and NI missed a 42 yd FG with :02 left in the 1H. At the half UW only had a 298-178 yd edge but went 77 and 79 yd for TD's to opened the 3Q and didn't punt until the last play of the 3Q up 42-7. UW was int'd at the 12 and then added a TD with 3:34 left in the 49-7 win...

Teddy Bridgewater had been unimpressive so far for Louisville at QB but was forced into the lineup when Will Stein was inj'd. Kentucky did take their first drive 58/7pl settling for a 20 yd FG then fmbl'd at the UL23. Stein hit a 38 yd TD pass to give UL a 7-3 lead. Bridgewater's first series was a 49/6pl drive with his 25 yd TD pass putting UL up 14-3. UK got an 80/9pl TD drive to pull within 14-10 at the half. Bridgewater led a 69/12pl drive for a 20 yd FG to open the 3Q and later a 46/7pl drive for a 25 yd TD pass for a 24-10 lead with 11:15 left. UK went 77/17pl getting a TD with 4:56 left to pull within 7. After a K/C interference pen UK started at the UL48 with 2:27 left. They had a FD at the 22 but on 4&6 fired incomplete with :51 left...

Navy's option almost got the upset of South Carolina. Navy had leads of 7-0, 14-7 and 21-17. SC took the lead with 12:45 left on a 79/16pl drive. Navy's last drive converted on 4&15 but on 4&7 they were int'd at the SC45 with 13:33 left and SC got 1 FD & took a knee. Spurrier rode Marcus Lattimore 37 times for a career high 246 yards...

Chris Rainey had a huge game for Florida with 233 total yards including an 82 yd TD rec and also blocked a punt. Surprisingly Tennessee had a 23-17 FD edge and UF only had a 347-279 yd edge but the Gators did lead this one 30-7. UT missed a 37 yd FG on the first poss then had a punt blk'd on the 2nd setting up a UF FG. UF led 16-7 at the half but only with a 167-134 yd edge. UT was int'd on the first play of the 3Q and UF converted on 4&1 for a TD capping a 42 yd drive then UF got an 83 yd TD pass by Rainey to lead 30-7. UT settled for a 20 yd FG to pull within 30-16 with 13:13 left and made it 33-23 with a TD with 4:46 left but their final drive ended on an int at the UF17...

FRONTDOOR COVERS

Colorado State opened with an 80/9pl drive for a TD and led 7-0. It was 7-0 when Colorado took over with 7:55 left 1H and went 75/9pl for a TD. CU took over with 2:16 left in the half and converted on 3&18 with a crucial run then on 3&10, got a 24 yd TD pass with :12 left in the half to make it 14-7. The game was 21-14 when CU took over with 11:25 left and they went 85/16pl and got a 2 yd Hansen TD run with 1:15 left to get ahead ATS. CSU was SOD on 4&4 from the CU42 when they were sacked for a 9 yd loss.

MISLEADING FINALS

Washington State led San Diego State 17-14 at the half with a 260-221 yd edge. WSU appeared in complete control of the game as they got a 76 yd TD pass in the 3Q to lead 24-14 and then forced the Aztecs to go 3 & out. The game turned on a roughing the P penalty which gave the Aztecs a FD and 3pl later SDSt got a TD to pull within 24-21. SDSt didn't take the lead until 10:31 was left on a TD to go up 28-24 and then WSU was at the Aztec25 when Lobbestael had the ball slip out of his hands on a sack which SDSt rec'd at the 36. After a WSU offsides, Hillman ran 59 yds for a TD and stunningly it was 35-24. WSU was int'd at the SDSt13 and with 3:59 left was int'd and ret'd all the way to their 20. On 3&11 the Aztecs got a 21 yd TD pass and it looked like an easy win but that was misleading...

Turnovers were clearly the key in the BYU-Utah game. On the 3rd play of the game, a bad snap went over Cougar QB Heaps' head and he tried to pick it up and throw it incomplete but the ball slipped out of his hands and Utah fell on it for a TD. BYU fmbl'd on their next drive at midfield. BYU's next drive went 74/8pl. They had a 1st & gl at the 6 but Di Luigi fmbl'd at the 3. BYU went 37/6pl and settled for a 45 yd FG and at this point had a 130-48 yd edge but trailed 7-3. BYU went 66/4pl for a TD in the 2Q to lead 10-7. Utah would get a 30 yd TD pass with :32 left in the half to lead 14-10 but BYU had a 227-187 yd edge. The Cougars would have 7 TO's in the game. Four times on 3&long Utah had a pass interference give them a FD and that happened at the start of the 3Q. Three plays later Utah got a TD on a 59 yd pass, 21-10. After a 29 yd PR Utah had a 19 yd "drive" for a 39 yd FG to go up 24-10. BYU fmbl'd the KO on their own 3 setting up another Utah TD. Two poss later BYU was sk'd & fmbl'd on their 6. Utah got a 20 yd FG. BYU was SOD after a 60/12pl drive at the Utah 18 and a beleaguered BYU D gave up a 62 yd TD run. After a 20 yd IR set up Utah at the BYU35, White ripped off another 35 yd TD run and naturally Utah's last score came with BYU at the Utah36 when they were sk'd & fmbl'd and it was ret'd 57 yds for a TD. Each team had 20 FD's.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2011, 08:38 PM

Arkansas Razorbacks At Alabama In SEC Showdown

Alabama is just 27-46 ATS vs. SEC opponents since 1992.
There were more than 101,000 fans at Bryant-Denny Stadium this past week to watch the Alabama Crimson Tide take on North Texas. A few in attendance showed up to watch Cody Mandell, Alabama's sophomore punter.

His lone boot traveled 35 yards before skipping out of bounds at the Mean Green 4-yard line.

A larger crowd is expected this Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa where red, or a slight variation of it, will be a very popular color when the Razorbacks from Arkansas come a callin' on 'Bama. Most will be rooting for Mandell to again only be called on once.

Alabama opened as a two touchdown favorite to beat the Hogs. That's just a little higher than the 9.4 gap between the Crimson Tide and Razorbacks in the Don Best Linemakers Poll. 'Bama has been No. 1 for three weeks running while Arkansas is 12th according to Kenny White.

Coincidentally – or perhaps not – the college football spread was quickly bet down to 11½ and even an 11 here and there. Saturday's total is up a point from opening to 50½.

It's the first of two very big road dates for Arkansas. The next is the day after Thanksgiving in Baton Rouge. It's a bit of a shame the Razorbacks have both of those contests on the road; having just one of them at home could really throw a wrinkle into the Southeastern Conference, and thus, the BCS.

The Hogs know they will have to beat either the Tide or the Tigers on the road to have even a small chance of playing in the SEC Championship.

Arkansas (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) started just outside the top 10 in most polls simply because the Razorbacks do have the Crimson Tide and Tigers on the road in SEC play. Bobby Petrino's team could easily wind up being third-best in the SEC West Division and yet a top-10 finalist in the nation.

Petrino's lads strolled to wins over Missouri State and New Mexico to begin the season, then were possibly caught looking ahead to this game in last week's 38-28 triumph over Troy. Arkansas shot to a 24-0 lead before getting a little sloppy and letting the Trojans make the score closer than it should've been.

Arkansas failed to cover the 23-point line, but Troy's 21-point second half did delight those who bet 'over' 62.

Petrino was particularly peeved with his quarterback, junior Tyler Wilson. If Wilson isn't spot on this week, Petrino won't hesitate to send in soph Brandon Mitchell. Whoever is under center, they could be without the services of wideout Jarius Wright who is questionable with a knee injury. Wright leads the team with three touchdown receptions.

Whoever is at QB will also have to deal with an incredibly tough Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have surrendered just 170 yards per game, third fewest in the nation, and just 18 points over the first three contests. The unit pitched a shutout last week against North Texas, and shined in the Tide's 27-11 triumph on the road at Penn State two weeks ago.

A strong running game to date – 242 YPG, 14th in the country – has relieved some of the pressure on sophomore QB AJ McCarron. He's been efficient, though unspectacular, the past two games after having a few hiccups in the season opener. Head coach Nick Saban is no doubt cool with the efficient/unspectacular showing for McCarron, and Alabama should give the Hogs a steady dose of Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy on the ground.

Alabama rallied for a 24-20 road win last season, the fourth-straight victory in this series for the Tide who were favored by seven. Arkansas' last win here in Tuscaloosa was a 34-31, double-overtime thriller in 2003.

CBS will broadcast this one starting at 3:30 p.m. (ET). The Razorbacks will head to Cowboys Stadium next week for a date with Texas A&M; 'Bama will be in Gainesville to meet the Florida Gators

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2011, 09:15 PM

Games to Watch - Week 4

September 20, 2011

Saturday - Oklahoma State at Texas A&M (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny
As of Tuesday, most sports books had the Aggies favored by 3 ½ or four with the total at 68 1/2. Mike Gundy's team has won three in a row over Texas A&M and owns a 3-0-1 spread record in the last four meetings. The Cowboys have won their first three games vs. Louisiana (61-34), vs. Arizona (37-14) and at Tulsa (59-33). Meanwhile, Mike Sherman's team has routed SMU (46-14) and Idaho (37-7) at Kyle Field. This game was a shoot-out last year with OSU rallying from a 21-7 halftime deficit to capture a 38-35 win as a 2 ½-point home 'chalk.' Cowboys' QB Brandon Weeden has one of the best WRs in the country in Justin Blackmon, but he needs to cut down his mistakes with six interceptions in only three games. Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill has four touchdowns passes compared to just one pick. The 'over' has cashed in six of the last seven games in this Big 12 rivalry.

Saturday - Florida State at Clemson (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny
Most books opened Florida St. as a three-point favorite even though QB E.J. Manuel's status was 'questionable.' On Monday, the line was reduced to two and then on Tuesday the number moved rapidly between 2:00 and 3:00 p.m. Eastern when Clemson became the favorite by one or 1 ½ points. The total opened at 50 ½. Clemson has won four in a row over FSU in Death Valley by an average of 15 points per game. The Tigers ended Auburn's 17-game winning streak last week by riding the hot hand of QB Tajh Boyd, who now has a 10/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Also, freshman sensation Sammy Watkins enjoyed a breakout performance against AU, catching 10 balls for 155 yards and two TDs while also rushing seven times for 44 yards. Will FSU be hung over from its heartbreaking loss to Oklahoma? It's a fair question for sure. If Manuel can't play, the start at QB will go to Clint Trickett, who completed 7-of-15 passes for 134 yards with one TD pass and one interception in the loss to the Sooners. When these ACC adversaries met in Tallahassee last season, FSU won a 16-13 decision as a 6 ½-point home favorite. The Tigers covered the number for the fifth time in the last six games against the 'Noles. The home team is 11-2 against the spread in the last 13 Clemson-FSU tilts. Gamblers should check the injury status of several other key players for FSU, including WRs Willie Haulstead and Bert Reed.

Saturday - Missouri at Oklahoma (FX, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny

Most spots opened Oklahoma as a 21-point home favorite, but the number was up to 22 by late Tuesday afternoon. The total opened in the 56-57 range. Might OU be in a letdown situation after winning a key road game at FSU? Possibly, but it is the Sooners' Big 12 opener and it's also a revenge situation after they lost 36-27 at Missouri last season. OU had won previously won seven in a row against the Tigers. Gary Pinkel's squad lost a nail-biter at Arizona St. in Week 2, dropping a 37-30 decision in overtime. However, Mizzou has to feel good about the play of its young QB James Franklin, who has a 6/1 TD-INT ratio and can make plays with his legs as well. RB Henry Josey is getting it done for the Tigers on the ground, rushing for 400 yards and three touchdowns on just 29 carries to date. Mizzou is 12-11 ATS as a road 'dog on Pinkel's watch, while OU is 21-8-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2006.

Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny

North Carolina at Georgia Tech - Paul Johnson's team has been producing explosive offensive numbers this year, albeit against cupcake competition. Nevertheless, we should note scoring outputs of 63, 49 and 66. The Yellow Jackets rushed for an incredible 604 yards in last week's 66-24 demolition of Kansas in a revenge game. They had 12 runs of 20 yards or more against the Jayhawks. Ga. Tech will face a tougher defense this week when unbeaten North Carolina comes to The Flats. But UNC hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row of foes yet this year, either. The Tar Heels have wins over James Madison (42-10), Rutgers (24-22) and Virginia (28-17). Ga. Tech QB Tevin Washington has seven TD passes and zero interceptions. He's also rushed for 72 yards and a pair of scores. GT has won eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings against UNC, but the Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in the last seven encounters.

Vanderbilt at South Carolina - Most books opened South Carolina as a 15-point favorite, but the number was at 16 as of late Tuesday afternoon. The total opened at 53. The Gamecocks are 3-0 but just 1-2 ATS after playing three tough games vs. ECU (56-37 in Charlotte), at UGA (45-42) and vs. Navy (24-21). RB Marcus Lattimore is a leading Heisman candidate after rushing 37 times for 246 yards and three TDs against the Midshipmen. For the year, Lattimore has 534 rushing yards and seven TDs, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Vandy is the feel-good story of September thanks to a 3-0 start both SU and ATS under new coach James Franklin. The Commodores posted their biggest SEC win (in terms of margin of victory) since 1971 when they trashed Ole Miss by a 30-7 count last week. They own a 3-0-1 spread record in their last four trips to Columbia.

USC at Arizona State - This is the last-call late-night game for gamblers in Week 4, as this Pac-12 showdown is slated for a 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Most spots had the Sun Devils as 2 ½-point favorites with a total of 54 early in the week. ASU is looking to bounce back from its first loss, a 17-14 setback at unbeaten Illinois. Meanwhile, USC comes to Tempe undefeated with home wins over Minnesota, Utah and Syracuse. Matt Barkley has been lighting up opponents with a 9/1 TD-INT ratio. Dating back to last year, the 'under' is on a 6-1 run in USC games. ASU hasn't beaten USC outright in more than a decade, but it is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2011, 09:19 PM

3-0 Illinois emerging threat in Big Ten

September 20, 2011

Illinois is 3-0 for the first time since 2001 and looks like a team to be taken seriously in the Big Ten.

The No. 24 Illini entered the Top 25 this week for the first time in three years after their 17-14 victory over then-No. 22 Arizona State.

A win over Western Michigan this week would give Illinois its first 4-0 start since the 1951 national championship season, and the Illini have a chance to be 6-0 when Ohio State comes calling Oct. 15.

``They've caught my attention,'' Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema said Tuesday on the Big Ten coaches' call.

Wins over Arkansas State and South Dakota State to start the season didn't raise any eyebrows. The win over Arizona State was impressive because the defense, a major question mark entering the season, carried the day while Illinois' offense generated just 240 yards.

``There's no question, you play a Pac-12 opponent and beat them, it was great for our program,'' Illini coach Ron Zook said. ``Our guys went into that game knowing they could win if they did the things the coaches asked them to do.''

Illinois beat a ranked nonconference team for the first time in 10 tries and is on a four-game win streak that started with a 38-14 victory over Baylor in the Texas Bowl.

Bielema said the win over Arizona State, a team the Badgers beat 20-19 in Madison last year, showed Illinois is a legitimate Big Ten contender.

``We beat (ASU) on a blocked extra point, and I think they had a good team a year ago,'' Bielema said. ``It speaks volumes about how good Illinois is at this point.''

An Illinois defense that lost three players to the NFL draft sacked Sun Devils quarterback Brock Osweiler six times and intercepted two of his passes. Sophomore linebacker Jonathan Brown was named Big Ten defensive player of the week after making seven tackles and 1.5 sacks. He also had an interception and forced another.

Glenn Foster has made a smooth move from end to tackle to help compensate for the loss of first-round pick Corey Liuget.

The defense, allowing under 11 points a game, hasn't been scored on after any of Illinois' four turnovers and has forced eight takeaways that have led to 24 points.

``I knew defensively we'd be a lot better than people would give us credit for,'' said Zook, who is 54-59 in seven seasons at Illinois and has spent some years fending off speculation about his future with the Illinois. ``We lost guys who were good players, but we knew we had some pretty good players replacing them. The biggest question I had was how soon the defense would come around.''

Sophomore quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase has improved as a passer. He's completed 33 of 46 passes (72 percent) for 504 yards. He's thrown 16 touchdown passes against two interceptions the last 10 games.

``The defense lost good players, but they're big-play oriented,'' Bielema said. ``And their quarterback makes special things happen.''

A.J. Jenkins, who caught Scheelhaase's game-winning 16-yard touchdown pass against Arizona State in the fourth quarter, is second in the Big Ten with 7.3 catches and 107 yards a game.

Jason Ford and Scheelhaase lead a rushing attack averaging 223 yards a game.

Illinois has a favorable conference schedule, with home games against Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin at home and Indiana, Purdue, Penn State and Minnesota on the road.

``Of the eight Big Ten games, four at home, you probably would pick the four that we have at home if you have your druthers,'' Zook said. ``I'm not going to apologize for our schedule after the one we played the last five or six years.''

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2011, 01:41 AM

Ear to the gridiron: Big Ten betting news and notes

September 20, 2011 4:35PM ET

A familiar opponent for Brady Hoke

Michigan’s new coach faces the worst nightmare for coaches this week - facing the team he just left - when San Diego State travels to Michigan Saturday. The Aztecs are a very solid team featuring a strong QB in Ryan Lindley and the No. 2 rusher in the country.

For Hoke, there is no upside here. If he wins, he should because his team is a 9-point favorite at home. If he loses, it’s humiliating. He’ll have the advantage of more knowledge of his opponent than almost any coach all year, but his former team will also be highly motivated to beat him.

Hoke has seemed clearly uncomfortable with the idea of this game every time he has been asked about it in the last week, and could certainly be tense and on edge as the game starts. That won’t matter as much as it would for some teams. Hoke doesn’t call plays on either side of the ball, and often doesn’t even wear a headset.

Hoke should be more concerned with his offense than his opponent in this one. Denard Robinson still runs like no one else, but his passing is regressing badly. That will become an increasing issue as the season progresses if they can’t get him back on track.

Youth in a line in Indiana

New Indiana head coach Kevin Wilson is building a bright future at Indiana (as the stunning recruitment coup of landing top QB Gunner Kiel in next year’s class showed), but he clearly has some work to do in the short term. It looks like he will be starting three freshmen on the offensive line this week.

Those freshmen played a lot last week and were whistled for 11 false start penalties. A trip to North Texas shouldn’t be a challenge, even for a team as underwhelming as Indiana has been for years. But you can expect more issues offensively from the Hoosiers than you otherwise might because of this inexperience. Indiana is favored by 6.5 points.

Nebraska due for a secondary boost

Current Giant and former Husker Prince Amukamara got all the attention in the Nebraska secondary last year, but a big portion of his success was due to the fact that fellow corner Alfonzo Dennard was every bit the player that he was.

Dennard, now a senior, has been out with a leg injury, but he is reportedly ready to go this week. That’s good news for the Huskers because their secondary hasn’t been nearly as sharp as it needs to be if they want to go all the way in the Big Ten.

Dennard shouldn’t be needed this week as the Huskers are 24-point favorites at Wyoming. This game is a perfect chance for him to get back into the swing of things, before facing QB Russell Wilson and the Wisconsin Badgers next week.

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