Announcement

**Udog** · 09-15-2011, 11:53 AM

NFL odds: Week 2 opening line report

NFL Week 2 is the most interesting week for oddsmaking and handicapping.

We’ve finally seen games that count, but they comprise such a small sample.

Are the Chiefs that bad? Are the Ravens that good?

Where was the Falcons’ explosiveness? Did Cam Newton prove something with 422 passing yards?

How bettors and oddsmakers answer dozens of questions posed by Week 1 will be critical in Week 2.

“Week 2 is often the best of the season for us, because we see such extreme shifts based on extreme performances,” Las Vegas handicapper Dave Malinksky told ***********. “And this season is no exception, with the oddsmakers having to alter their thinking on so many teams, trying to keep the public money balanced as folks look for those emerging “Play On” and “Play Against” teams.

“Remember that the rule of thumb for the betting public tends to be, ‘Accept Week 1 as gospel’ rather than aberrations.”

Malinsky believes oddsmakers downgraded Atlanta and Kansas City too much, noting the Chiefs did not go hard in the preseason and that may have played a role in Buffalo blowing them out. He thinks the Colts might not have been downgraded enough.

“Meanwhile, the Lions have quickly become darlings, which is pushing this week’s line too far,” Malinsky said, referring to Detroit laying a touchdown or more at home against K.C. “And [oddsmakers] will have to be careful about giving the Texans too much credit for KO’ing a Colts team that did not put up much of a fight.”

Pete Korner, founder of The Sports Club oddsmaking service, told *********** his team faced difficult decisions for Week 2 “because the performances in Week 1 didn’t match the quality of the teams…More data means you can tell whether one game was a fluke or the start of something.”

For example, Atlanta looked horrible in losing 30-12 at Chicago.

“We sent out Atlanta -1 [vs. Philly] and now it’s Philly favored from 1 to 2.5,” Korner said, acknowledging it was a bad line. “It’s a very tough game between two very good teams, but Atlanta showed so poorly. I think Atlanta comes through big time. I would not be surprised if it comes back to a pick ‘em.”

Cleveland-Indy was another hard line to set. The Sports Club suggested clients open it at Browns -2.

“It just looks fluky,” Korner said, noting each team’s pedigree and recent history. “But I said, ‘If I’m going to be wrong, I’m not going to be wrong on the Indy side, because they had an awful preseason, awful first game. I’ll take my chances if it gets bet over to Indy.”

Offshores agreed. They opened it at Cleveland -3, and it’s been bet down only to 2.5.

The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook is a case study in Week 1’s impact, because the Hilton releases NFL lines a week ahead of time. Week 2 lines went up a week ago.

The Redskins were laying 2.5 against Arizona a week ago but now are laying 4.5. That’s a direct result of how they looked in their 28-14 handling of the Giants.

“Rex Grossman looked very comfortable, and they played with a lot of confidence, energy and enthusiasm,” SuperBook manager Jay Kornegay told ***********. “The key is how good Grossman looked. Of course, he can change colors at any times.”

The Jets were laying 8.5 against Jacksonville a week ago. Now they’re laying 10. And the Jets didn’t have an impressive debut.

“They were very fortunate” to beat the Cowboys,” Kornegay said. “It’s just that the popularity of the Jets is a little stronger than usual. And we don’t expect the Jets to look that bad again.”

In general, Kornegay said, he tries to make slight adjustments rather than knee-jerk reactions.

Biggest spreads of the week: Green Bay at Carolina (10.5, 46), Seattle at Pittsburgh (-13, 38.5)

Korner listed the Packers as 13-point favorites despite Newton’s heroics. Books opened lower, but Korner believes that will rise.

“Newton’s going to be facing a far different defense, and I don’t want to be stuck with the responsibility of giving out too short a number on Green Bay – they can score on anyone,” Korner said. “We’re telling [sportsbooks], even if we’re not right, stay higher. Make everyone bet Carolina. Because gameday it will all be on Green Bay.”

No one is selling the Steelers after one bad outing. All power rankings still have them near the top.

“We know Seattle is not going to be a force, and Pittsburgh is going to bounce back, but how much?” Korner said.

If that spread hits 14, however, underdog players will be tempted.

Smallest spread of the week: Dallas at San Francisco (3, 42)

This is one of a number of small spreads, including the Cleveland-Indy and Philly-Atlanta games discussed earlier.

Korner actually released Dallas-San Fran as a pick 'em.

"The Cowboys just blew Sunday night's game and San Francisco looked very good, but we know there is a difference in talent and Dallas probably should be favored," Korner said. "But because of [Week 1] we shaded it down."

Still, most books opened the Niners as slight favorites.

Biggest total of the week: San Diego at New England (-7, 51)

There are no doubts about either offense, plus the Chargers just lost top defensive end Luis Castillo to a broken tibia.

Malinsky expects this total to rise. And he offered that opinion before New England ripped Miami for 500-plus passing yards in a 38-24 win.

“They have already been willing to go to 50 on the Philadelphia-Atlanta matchup,” he said. “That would tell us that a 52 might even be in play for this one.”

**Udog** · 09-15-2011, 11:53 AM

NFL Week 1 injury report: Bradford, S-Jax, Tolbert

St. Louis Rams

The St. Louis Rams received mixed news on the injury front Monday, with running back Steven Jackson expected to sit out next week and wide receiver Danny Amendola expected to return much earlier than expected.

Jackson suffered a right quadriceps strain early in Sunday's 31-13 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo said Jackson, who ran for a 47-yard touchdown on their first play from scrimmage, probably will not play in Monday's game against the New York Giants.

Cadillac Williams will start in Jackson's place. He had 91 yards rushing and 49 yards receiving Sunday.

Quarterback Sam Bradford was listed as day-to-day by Spagnuolo with a contusion or bruise on his right finger.

Amendola, who suffered a dislocated left elbow and was feared possibly lost for the season, will not have to undergo surgery, Spagnuolo said.That could mean Amendola, the team's leading receiver with 85 catches last season, could be back sometime next month.

Right tackle Jason Smith, the second overall pick in the 2009 draft, also is listed as day-to-day with a sprained ankle.

The news was not as good for cornerback Ron Bartell, who could miss the rest of the season with a neck injury.

San Diego Chargers

San Diego Chargers running back Mike Tolbert will undergo an MRI on Monday after suffering a leg injury in Sunday's win over Minnesota.

Tolbert was the star of the show in the 24-17 triumph, rushing for a touchdown and catching two passes for scores.He appeared fine after the game, but the Chargers are taking no chances. Tolbert finished with 12 rushes for 35 yards and nine catches for 58 yards.

Meanwhile, kicker Nate Kaeding is done for the season with a torn ACL in his left knee.

Kaeding was hurt while trying to make a tackle on Percy Harvin's 103-yard opening kickoff return Sunday. The Chargers will have tryouts to find a replacement. Punter Mike Scifres assumed all kicking duties Sunday.

Kaeding has been among the league's best kickers since he was drafted by the Chargers in 2004. He has converted 86.5 percent (173-for-200) of his field goal attempts in his seven seasons.

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City chiefs safety Eric Berry has been lost for the season with a torn ACL.Berry was injured early in Sunday's 41-7 home loss to the Buffalo Bills.

The No. 5 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Berry had a strong rookie season with the Chiefs, registering 92 tackles, four interceptions and two sacks.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers linebacker Jon Beason has been lost for the season with a torn Achilles' tendon.

Beason, who had never missed a game in his first four seasons, was injured in the second half of Sunday's loss at Arizona. He did not practice or play in the preseason and underwent a minor surgical procedure on his Achilles' tendon on Aug. 23.

A first-round draft pick in 2007, Beason has amassed at least 120 tackles in each of his four seasons.

New York Giants

New York Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks underwent further evaluation on his ailing knee Monday.

X-rays on Nicks came back negative, and a team source told the Newark Star-Ledger that the wideout is dealing with a "bone bruise at worst." Nicks had a huge opening game with seven receptions for 122 yards in Sunday's 28-14 loss at Washington.

He had a breakout season in 2010, hauling in 79 catches for 1,052 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills cornerback Terrence McGee will be sidelined for a few weeks due to a hamstring injury suffering in Sunday's 41-7 romp at Kansas City.

McGee has been plagued by injuries the past two seasons. A fourth-round draft pick in 2003, he has 17 career interceptions. Rookie Aaron Williams played in place of McGee on Sunday and will likely start against Oakland on Sunday.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers offensive tackle Willie Colon is likely done for the season due to a torn triceps. Colon's agent, Joe Linta, told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that his client will undergo surgery Tuesday morning.

Colon missed the entire 2010 season after suffering an Achilles' tendon injury the previous summer. The Steelers signed him to a five-year contract worth $29 million in July.

**Udog** · 09-15-2011, 11:54 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Sunday, September 18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (1 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (0 - 1) at DETROIT (1 - 0) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (1 - 0) at NY JETS (1 - 0) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (1 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 0) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 30-61 ATS (-37.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (1 - 0) at WASHINGTON (1 - 0) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 46-76 ATS (-37.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (1 - 0) at TENNESSEE (0 - 1) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (0 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 1) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 48-76 ATS (-35.6 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (1 - 0) at CAROLINA (0 - 1) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) at MINNESOTA (0 - 1) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (0 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (0 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 0) - 9/18/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (1 - 0) at MIAMI (0 - 1) - 9/18/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
MIAMI is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
MIAMI is 44-66 ATS (-28.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (1 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) - 9/18/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 137-104 ATS (+22.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (1 - 0) at DENVER (0 - 1) - 9/18/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 100-132 ATS (-45.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (1 - 0) at ATLANTA (0 - 1) - 9/18/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 143-101 ATS (+31.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (0 - 1) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/19/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 59-83 ATS (-32.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 83-114 ATS (-42.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-15-2011, 11:55 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 2

Sunday, 9/18/2011

CHICAGO at NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM ET
CHICAGO: 9-1 UNDER as a road underdog
NEW ORLEANS: 41-62 ATS as a home favorite

KANSAS CITY at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 21-6 ATS Away off DD loss
DETROIT: 17-32 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

JACKSONVILLE at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: JACKSONVILLE 7-0 OVER off home game
NY JETS: NY JETS 4-15 ATS at home 1st 2 wks of season

OAKLAND at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 20-11 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
BUFFALO: 6-0 ATS off SU win by 14+ pts as a road underdog

ARIZONA at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 1-8 ATS off a home win
WASHINGTON: 132-100 UNDER against conference opponents

BALTIMORE at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
BALTIMORE: 2-8 ATS after a win by 10+ points
TENNESSEE: 4-1 UNDER after scoring 3 points or less 1st half last game

SEATTLE at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 3-15 ATS in road games
PITTSBURGH: 6-0 OVER off a road loss

GREEN BAY at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 25-12 ATS in all games
CAROLINA: 0-8 ATS in September games

TAMPA BAY at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 7-0 ATS as a road underdog
MINNESOTA: 18-6 UNDER as a home favorite of 3 points or less

CLEVELAND at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 17-6 UNDER in dome games
INDIANAPOLIS: 72-50 UNDER at home vs. conference

DALLAS at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:05 PM ET
DALLAS: 1-8 ATS as a favorite
SAN FRANCISCO: 1-5 ATS after a win by 14+ points

HOUSTON at MIAMI, 4:15 PM ET
HOUSTON: 7-21 ATS off a home win
MIAMI: 3-1 OVER against AFC South division opponents

SAN DIEGO at NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 9-5 OVER in road games
NEW ENGLAND: 6-1 OVER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

CINCINNATI at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 20-8 OVER off division win as an underdog
DENVER: 82-52 OVER as a home favorite

PHILADELPHIA at ATLANTA, 8:20 PM ET NBC
PHILADELPHIA: 6-0 OVER in road games against conference opponents
ATLANTA: ATLANTA 26-11 OVER off a road loss by 14+ points

Monday, 9/19/2011

ST LOUIS at NY GIANTS, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
ST LOUIS: 5-1 ATS off a home loss by 10+ points
NY GIANTS: 1-5 ATS off a road loss

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 09-15-2011, 11:55 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Bears (1-0) @ Saints (0-1)—Last three years, Payton’s team is 10-3 vs spread in game following loss; Saints had three extra days to ****** loss in Lambeau opener. NO is 9-3-1 vs spread in last 13 games as non-divisional home favorite- would expect them to run it more here, after only 21 runs, 53 dropbacks in opener. Since 2007, Bears are 12-18 vs spread in game following a loss- they’re 5-9-1 as road dog since ‘08. Chicago won last three series games, with average total in last three, 54, but Bears lost last three visits to Bourbon Street by 22-3-7 points (beat Saints @ LSU in ’05). 10 of Saints’ last 14 home openers, six of Bears’ last seven road openers stayed under total.

Chiefs (0-1) @ Lions (1-0)—Detroit now on 5-game win streak after 27-20 win in Tampa where they put up 431 yards despite covering just 2-11 on third down; Lions is 6-2-1 in last nine games as home favorite- they’re 12-8 vs spread/AFC teams, 10-6 vs spread at home under Schwartz. Detroit was 5-0 vs spread in game following a win LY, after being 7-21-2 in such role from ‘01-‘09. Chiefs were awful in losing home opener 41-7 last week, passing for just 105 yards, converting 3-13 on third down. Have to wonder how much Cassel is affected by sore ribs. Since ’07, Chiefs are 19-13 vs spread on road. Since 2005, they’re 14-24-1 as single digit underdogs. Home side won four of last five series games.

Jaguars (1-0) @ Jets (1-0)— Since 2007, Gang Green is 8-16-1 as home fave, but they’re 12-10 vs spread as favorite under Ryan. Since ’08, Jets are 16-11 vs spread in game following a win- they need to avoid letdown after emotional comeback win in season opener against Cowboys. Jags won five of last six series games, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points, or in OT; Jax outrushed Titans 163-43 last week, converted 9-18 on third down- this is only second time in last 11+ years they’re double digit dog (lost 27-7 (+10.5) at Baltimore in ’07 finale). Jaguars lost five of last six road openers, scoring 10-12-13 points last three years. Five of their last seven road openers stayed under total.

Raiders (1-0) @ Bills (1-0)—Very tough scheduling spot for Oakland, which won in Denver late Monday night (game ended after 1:30 am ET), now has cross-country road trip on short rest, vs hopped-up Buffalo squad that had 23-yard edge in field position in last week’s stunning 41-7 win at Arrowhead, starting five drives in KC territory. Since 2007, Buffalo is 12-7 as a favorite; since ’04, they’re 18-11-1 as a home favorite. Last eight years, Raiders are 25-42-1 as single digit dog. Oakland won four of last five series games, with home side winning last three; Raiders are 3-3 in last six visits here. Under is 8-4 in Buffalo’s last dozen home openers. Bills had excellent balance in opener; 163 rushing yards, 201 passing.

Cardinals (1-0) @ Redskins (1-0)—Have to be concerned about Arizona pass defense after rookie Newton lit them up for 422 yards, most ever by player in his NFL debut. Over last nine years, Cardinals are just 19-32-2 coming off a win, 26-43-3 vs spread on road, but Arizona has won its first road game the last three years, allowing 14.3 ppg-- they’ve lost last seven games vs Washington, losing last six visits here, with four of six losses by 7+ points. Since 2008, Arizona is 5-10-2 as road dog. Since ’05, Washington is 13-19 as a favorite; 9-3 vs spread when laying 3 or less points, 4-16 if laying more than 3. Skins are 5-13-1 in their last 19 games as a home favorite. Skins had three TD’s in four visits to red zone and the defense scored go-ahead TD, a huge plus. Four of Arizona’s last five road openers stayed under total.

Ravens (1-0) @ Titans (0-1)—Tennessee star RB Johnson had nine carries, 24 yards in opener, now Raven defense comes to town after forcing seven turnovers in rivalry win last week. New Titan coach Munchak great lineman; he needs to find way to get Johnson more holes to run thru. Baltimore is 19-11 vs spread in last 30 games as favorite, 5-3 in last eight as road fave, 14-8-2 in last 24 road games overall- they covered four of last five road openers. Tennessee covered its last six games as an underdog in home openers; since 2007, they’re 22-14-1 as a dog, 18-14 coming off a loss. Home team lost last three series games; Ravens won five of last six visits here. Average total in last seven series games is 31.7. Over is 10-6 in Tennessee’s last six home openers.

Seahawks (0-1) @ Steelers (0-1)—Both teams got hammered last week; since 2003, Steelers are 25-18 vs spread in game following a loss; they’ve won last eight home openers, covering five of last six, allowing just 10.5 ppg in those games. Steelers are just 5-13 in last 18 games when laying double digits; since ’08, they’re 16-21-1 as a favorite, but they did cover 15 of last 24 vs NFC teams. Over last decade, Seattle is 1-9 vs spread as double digit underdogs; since 2005, they’re 11-26-1 on foreign soil, 3-14 last two years. Hawks covered six of last 25 tries as a road dog, but since ’05, they’re 23-19-2 coming off a loss. Seahawks lost field position by 16 yards last week, starting 8 of 13 drives 80+ yards from goal line- they had only 64 rushing yards. Home teams won six of last seven series games; Seahawks are 2-6 in Steel City, with last win in ’99.

Packers (1-0) @ Panthers (0-1)—Defending champs were sharp in opening win, with four TD drives of 76+ yards vs Saints- overall they had five TDs on nine drives. Packers won last five road openers, all by 7+ points; they’re 26-12-1 vs spread in last 39 road games, 10-6 as road favorite last four years. Since 2002, GB is 6-3 when laying double digits. Carolina lost six of last seven home openers (0-8 vs spread in last eight); they’ve covered only 11 of last 30 as an underdog. Since ’06, Panthers are 5-9 as a home dog, but they also covered 10 of last 15 as double digit dog. Green Bay is 7-4 in series, 4-2 in last six visits here, but this is their first here in six years; average total in last three series games is 58.3. Four of Pack’s last five road openers went over; under is 11-3-1 in Carolina’s last 15 home openers.

Bucs (0-1) @ Vikings (0-1)—McNabb had 28 net yards passing in sunny San Diego last week, threw horrible pick on screen pass; Minnesota’s only offensive TD came on 51-yard drive. Not good. Tampa Bay is 12-3-1 vs spread on road under Morris- road teams are 25-6-2 in Tampa games so far in his tenure. Home side won 10 of last 11 Buc-Viking games, but teams haven’t met since ’08; Tampa Bay lost four of last five visits here. Minnesota is 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as a favorite in its home opener- only once in their last six home openers have Vikings won by more than three points. Bucs lost four of last five road openers; they’re 5-9 vs spread in last 14 games as a dog in a road opener. Under is 14-4 in Bucs’ last 18 road openers, 5-1 in Vikings’ last six home openers.

Browns (0-1) @ Colts (0-1)-- This is first time Browns are favored on road in four years, since Week 16 loss at Cincy in 2007. With Manning out, no Indy trends matter, since they're totally different (much worse) without him. Colts trailed 34-0 at half in Houston last week; Texans had no points, 7 first downs in second half. Colts had only 64 rushing yards, were 1-9 on 3rd down. Cleveland gave up couple of TDs in last 5:00 of home loss to Bengals- they had 11 penalties and were just 19-40 passing. Browns covered two of last eight games as a favorite, but over last decade, they're 5-1 as a road favorite. For what its worth, Colts are 5-0 vs new Browns, with last three wins 9-6/13-6/10-6. Cleveland lost its last five road openers, going 1-3-1 vs spread, with three of the five losses by 17+ points. Over is 7-3 in Cleveland's last ten road openers.

Cowboys (0-1) @ 49ers (1-0)-- Dallas led by 14 in 4th quarter at Swamp last week, but blew lead, first time in franchise history (241-1-1) they lost a game when leading by 14+ in 4th quarter. Since 1988, Dallas is 8-3 as a favorite in its road opener; they've won three of last four overall. 49ers' 33 points vs Seattle last week are little misleading, as Ginn returned PR/KR for TDs within 0:59 in last 4:00 of what was 19-17 game. 49ers are 11-4-1 vs spread at home the last two years; they were 0-5 vs spread after a win LY. Dallas won three of last four series games, with average total in last five, 58.6- they were 0-3 as a road favorite LY,and seem to find ways to lose (like the blocked punt last week) so they need this win to erase last week's debacle. Over is 11-3 in Cowboys' last 14 road openers. You have to give 49ers a big edge in special teams.

Texans (1-0) @ Dolphins (0-1)-- Miami had 390 passing yards vs Patriots in opener, but 213 of its 488 total yards came on last three drives, after Pats had blown game open. Houston won all five games vs Miami, with four wins by 3 or less points; their wins here were 21-20/27-20, with last one in 2009. Since 2004, Dolphins are 11-15 as a home dog; they've lost last five games at home. Fish gave up 519 yards passing last week (10.5 ypa). Texans had 34-0 lead at halftime last week, coasted rest of game; they won three of their last four road openers, with seven of last eight going over total. Texans play Saints/Steelers in next two weeks, they better not look past this hungry opponent. Since 2005, Dolphins are 19-31-1 vs spread in game following a loss; Houston is 17-31-2 in its history coming off a win.

Chargers (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)-- Brady implored fans to get drunk and make lot of noise for this 4:15 kickoff, so expect raucous crowd; New England won its last nine home openers (5-3-1 vs spread), with seven of nine going over the total. Chargers are 1-3-1 vs spread in last five games as underdog in their road opener, but since 2004, San Diego is 19-5-3 overall as an underdog, 6-2-1 as a road dog the last three years. Bolts brought in Bob Sanders to improve its pass defense- Vikings got only 28 net passing yards last week, but McNabb is no Brady, this we know. Pats are 9-6-1 as home favorite last two years. Patriots won four of last five series games; Chargers lost nine of last ten visits here, with only win in 2005- their last visit here was in '07. Chargers are 22-14-1 coming off a win, New England is 34-23-2. Winner is early favorite in AFC.

Bengals (1-0) @ Broncos (0-1)-- Denver is 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning last meeting 12-7 on bizarre tipped pass in last minute of '09 opener. Bengals lost last eight visits here; their last Mile High win was 1975, but Cincy won its opener, scoring two TDs in last 5:00 behind journeyman backup Gradkowski. Last 5+ years, Cincy is 16-13 as a road dog. Broncos are now 6-20 SU in last 26 games, since starting out 6-0 in '09- since 2006 they're 5-22-1 as a favorite at home. Some fickle Denver fans were chanting for a QB change to Tebow late in Monday night's loss, so pressure on Orton to play better here, but they also need better balance, after 51 dropbacks, only 13 running plays in opener. Cincy is 10-6 vs spread in game following its last 16 wins. Denver is 15-25 vs spread in game after its last 40 losses.

Eagles (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1)-- Over last three years, Atlanta is 13-1-1 against spread in games coming off a loss. Michael Vick returns to Georgia Dome here for first time as an Eagle, so very emotional game for him, after his workmanlike destruction of Rams (237 RY, 8-12 on 3rd down) last week. Atlanta won six of last seven home openers; since 1988, they're 5-3 as underdog in home opener. Eagles scored 37-38-35 points in last three road openers; they're 7-4 as faves in their road opener. Falcons were only NFL team not to score offensive TD last week; they had 52 dropbacks, 14 runs, so expect more balance here. Over last decade, Philly is 27-20 as road favorite, Falcons 7-17 as home underdog; since '07 Eagles are 19-16 coming off a win. Will be curious to see how much of the Georgia Dome crowd is going to be pulling for #7.

Rams (0-1) @ Giants (0-1)-- Rams' coach Spagnuolo is former Giant aide who helped them win Super Bowl, but players win games, and both sides have key injuries. St Louis lost offensive stars Jackson/Amendola in home opener loss, but QB Bradford (bruised finger on passing hand) will play here, much to relief of ESPN. Giants won last four series games, last three by an average score of 36-17, but Big Blue is hurting on defense, losing to Grossman (21-34/258) in opener. Manning converted only 1-10 on 3rd down, as Redskins outscored the Jersey offense 7-0 in second half. Giants are 10-5 as a favorite in home opener; they won last three, by 9-6-13 points. This is Rams' first MNF appearance in five years; they lost their last nine road openers, going 1-10 vs spread in last 11, with last five staying under total.

**Udog** · 09-15-2011, 11:55 AM

NFL

Week 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 18

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CAROLINA
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Green Bay's last 11 games on the road
Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. NY JETS
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 9 games on the road
NY Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. NEW ORLEANS
Chicago is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Detroit's last 14 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. WASHINGTON
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. MINNESOTA
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. TENNESSEE
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Tennessee is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Seattle's last 12 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Seattle

4:05 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

4:15 PM
HOUSTON vs. MIAMI
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
CINCINNATI vs. DENVER
Cincinnati is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. NEW ENGLAND
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Diego
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego

8:20 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ATLANTA
Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Atlanta's last 13 games
Atlanta is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games

Monday, September 19

8:30 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. NY GIANTS
St. Louis is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of St. Louis's last 16 games on the road
NY Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-15-2011, 10:39 PM

NFL

Week 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL total bias: Week 2's best over/under bets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bill Belichick is the NFL’s big riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma – er, hoodie.

Every week he leads his team into battle, stomping around the sidelines with purpose, clutching game notes that might as well be the Dead Sea Scrolls to football bettors.

He’s almost unquestionably the game’s most respected mind and yet, what do we really know about him? Not much - which is exactly what he wanted. Well, up until now at least.

On Thursday evening, the NFL Network debuts Bill Belichick: A Football Life, a documentary that follows the coach’s every move from the beginning of the 2009 offseason all the way to the club’s playoff loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

Even as a Patriots hater, I’ve been drooling over this for weeks.

We saw exactly what the Pats are capable of against the Miami Dolphins Monday when you give Belichick’s bunch an entire offseason to plan for a game. Now, hopefully, we’ll get a glimpse into how it all comes together behind the scenes or at least get a better understanding of what "Patriot Way" really means.

But while I’ll happily Spygate the hell out of this series, it does seem a little un-Belichick, doesn’t it?

Former Patriots linebacker and current ESPN analyst Teddy Bruschi ripped Ochocinco earlier this week for tweeting his awe of the team’s offensive explosion on the Dolphins earlier this week. While some are saying Bruschi needs to chill out, I agree with him.

Ochocinco’s a clown show. He’s a pile of wasted talent for this team until he pulls himself together and becomes the potent offensive weapon that he’s capable of.

The thing is, Belichick’s supposed to be the guy who doesn’t tolerate any junk, the guy who forces his players to put the team before themselves.

I’m just not sure how this new documentary fits into that mold.

I’m staying away from the skyscraper 54-point total set for this weekend’s Chargers-Pats game, but keep in mind the over was 13-3 in Week 1. Books may have to boost their totals for a while to keep up with all this offense and balance their action.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (5.5, 37.5)

I’ll be whistling Dixie on this Ravens over train until the last stop. If you needed any more evidence that Baltimore’s attack is legit after last week’s dismantling of the Steelers, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and the boys will be happy to put on another show Sunday.

This team has such a good mix of veteran sensibility and youthful energy right now. You have Flacco and Rice ready to take the league by storm and Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs there to keep everybody’s head on straight.

"I just hope people ain't jumping the gun too fast," Suggs told reporters this week. "It's a long season. We won our first game. So did half the other teams that played last week.”

The Titans weren’t one of those teams and they may be waiting a while before they get in the win column. That said, Chris Johnson will look to bounce back after a rotten showing in Week 1 and I do like Kenny Britt a ton. They should get enough done to help push this one over the total.

Pick: Over

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (1, 49.5)

I’ll get on a full-out rant about the Eagles one of these weeks. But for now, all I’ll say is that I’m looking at this team as a work in progress. While all the pieces appear to be there, it can take a long time to put a puzzle together.

Vick’s in a tough spot here, coming back to the Georgia Dome for the first time as a starter. Atlanta was smacked around by the Bears last week and needs to make a big impression at home this week. I’m concerned the Falcons have a tough time doing much through the air against Philly’s secondary and you know the Falcons will do everything they can to stop the run and contain Vick early on.

This smells like a real battle in the trenches to me and I think the public forced books to make this total a little higher than it should be.

Pick: Under

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-3, 43)

Hey Buffalo, welcome to the party. You’re only about a decade late, but no matter now that your Bills seem to have figured out that you can win games with offense.

It’s a novel concept and one that I’m not sure the Bills will be able to keep up, so let’s soak it up while it lasts. If they can produce half the offense they did in destroying the Chiefs at Arrowhead last week, I feel great about an over wager.

That Darren McFadden is some sort of animal in Oakland’s backfield and should carry the Raiders’ offense again this weekend.

Pick: Over

--

Last week’s record: 3-0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-16-2011, 10:48 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

Dallas at San Francisco
The Cowboys look to take advantage of a San Francisco team that is coming off a 33-17 win over Seattle and is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS victory. Dallas is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

Game 197-198: Chicago at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 131.597; New Orleans 139.421
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 8; 44
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Under

Game 199-200: Kansas City at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 129.495; Detroit 134.380
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 5; 47
Vegas Line: Detroit by 9; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+9); Over

Game 201-202: Jacksonville at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 127.368; NY Jets 139.547
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 12; 36
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 9; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-9); Under

Game 203-204: Oakland at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 129.384; Buffalo 131.035
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Over

Game 205-206: Arizona at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 128.405; Washington 129.034
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Washington 4; 45
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4); Under

Game 207-208: Baltimore at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 140.369; Tennessee 129.634
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Baltimore 5 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-5 1/2); Over

Game 209-210: Seattle at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 121.911; Pittsburgh 140.357
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 18 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 14; 40
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-14); Under

Game 211-212: Green Bay at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 136.244; Carolina 127.604
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 8 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 10; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+10); Over

Game 213-214: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 132.905; Minnesota 133.098
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Over

Game 215-216: Cleveland at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.466; Indianpolis 127.304
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3; 36
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Dallas at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.322; San Francisco 127.233
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 5; 40
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3); Under

Game 219-220: Houston at Miami (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 132.787; Miami 131.683
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Over

Game 221-222: San Diego at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 134.976; New England 142.916
Dunkel Line: New England by 8; 49
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Under

Game 223-224: Cincinnati at Denver (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 125.374; Denver 128.498
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3; 43
Vegas Line: Denver by 4; 40
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4); Over

Game 225-226: Philadelphia at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 136.204; Atlanta 132.117
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-1); Under

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

Game 227-228: St. Louis at NY Giants (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 123.431; NY Giants 133.443
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 10; 47
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 6; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-6); Over

**Udog** · 09-17-2011, 11:51 PM

NFL

Sunday, September 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions (-9)

Why Chiefs cover: Last weekend’s debacle at home against Buffalo hard to overlook, but K.C. has been good lately as underdog and on road, going 7-3 ATS in last 10 catching points and 8-3 ATS in last 11 as road pup.

Why Lions cover: QB Matthew Stafford (3 TDs, 1 INT) is healthy and looked solid Week 1 on road vs. TB team that won 10 games last year. Detroit is on bundle of ATS streaks, including 6-0 overall, 7-1 at Ford Field, 7-0 after a SU win and 5-0 after a spread-cover.

Total (45): Detroit is on over runs of 10-3-1 overall and 8-2 at home.

Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Why Browns cover: Cleveland normally couldn’t dream of being road favorite vs. Indy, but with Colts minus Peyton Manning, this could be the new normal. Browns 5-1 ATS in last six as road chalk. Colts in ATS slides of 2-6 overall and 1-5 in home dome.

Why Colts cover: Can’t be much worse than last week, when they got shelled 34-7 at Houston, and Cleveland lost 27-17 at home to a very suspect Cincinnati team.

Total (38): Under is 11-4 in Browns’ last 15 against losing teams, and under on stretches for Indy of 5-2-1 at home and 4-0 with Colts as ‘dogs.

Green Bay Packers (-9.5) at Carolina Panthers

Why Packers cover: Defending Super Bowl champions with arguably best QB in league in Aaron Rodgers. Panthers were worst team in league last year and have rookie QB in Cam Newton.

Why Panthers cover: Almost no positive ATS trends to speak of, but underdog 4-1 ATS in last five Panthers-Packers clashes. Also, Newton was impressive at Arizona, racking up 422 yards and two TDs in a 24-for-37 effort passing, with one interception.

Total (46.5): The under has hit in nine of Pack’s last 11 roadies and is 35-15-2 in Panthers’ last 52 at home.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)

Why Bears cover: Drubbed solid Atlanta squad 30-12 in season opener as 1-point home pup. Chicago on ATS upswings of 5-1 overall, 5-1 in September and 8-3 catching points.

Why Saints cover: Didn’t get it done in season opener at Green Bay, but still piled up plenty of points behind QB Drew Brees (419 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs). Good bounceback team, with 14-5 ATS mark in last 19 following SU loss.

Total (47): Under 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven on road and 33-16-2 in Bears’ last 51 as road pup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Why Buccaneers cover: Because Donovan McNabb might be the worst starting quarterback in the NFL.

Why Vikings cover: In favorite’s role, Minnesota on upticks of 4-1 overall and 8-2-1 at home dome. Home team also 13-3-1 ATS in last 17 Vikings-Bucs contests.

Total (40.5): Under 4-1 in last five of this rivalry in Minnesota. Total has also gone low in Bucs’ last four roadies, eight of last 11 with Tampa a road ‘dog.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

Why Raiders cover: Running back Darren McFadden led the league in Week 1, racking up 150 rushing yards in a 23-20 win at Denver. Raiders 6-2 ATS last eight on highway – all as underdog – and 9-4 ATS in last 13 overall.

Why Bills cover: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looks pretty good, with four TD passes and no turnovers in road rout of Kansas City. Buffalo on ATS runs of 8-3-1 overall, 4-1 laying points and 7-2 vs. AFC foes.

Total (42.5): Over on stretches for Oakland of 4-1 overall, 11-4-1 in September and 9-4 with Raiders as ‘dogs.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4)

Why Cardinals cover: Kevin Kolb (309 passing yards, 2 TDs, no INTs in Week 1) appears much more suitable replacement for retired Kurt Warner. As favorite, Redskins on ATS skids of 1-7-1 overall and 0-6 at FedEx Field.

Why Redskins cover: On 4-0-1 ATS run, including outright home win vs. Giants in Week 1, and Washington also 6-2-2 ATS in last 10 vs. winning teams.

Total (44): Washington sports under streaks of 6-2 overall, 10-2-1 laying points and 7-0 as home chalk.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-9)

Why Jaguars cover: That’s a lot of points for a defensive team like Gang Green to cover. It’s not like Mark Sanchez lit the world on fire against Dallas.

Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan’s troops have cashed seven of last 10 following pointspread loss, and are on further ATS runs of 4-1 vs. AFC foes and 6-2 in September. Jacksonville on 2-8 ATS slide vs. winning teams.

Total (38.5): Over on a batch of upswings, including 8-3 overall for Jacksonville, 8-1 for Jags on road, 19-7 overall for New York and 8-3 with Jets a chalk.

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans

Why Ravens cover: Tennessee (3-7 ATS last 10) lost 16-14 on road vs. Jacksonville team that cut starting QB days before game. Ravens on boatload of ATS tears, including 5-2 overall, 5-1 giving points, 4-1 on road, 4-1 as road chalk and 8-2 in September.

Why Titans cover: Have covered eight of last 10 in home underdog role and 11 of last 15 in September. Titans also 4-1 ATS in last five of this rivalry, and underdog 16-5 ATS in last 21 Titans-Ravens clashes.

Total (37.5): Over 8-3 in Tennessee’s last 11 at home, though under on runs of 6-1-1 in this rivalry, 11-5-1 in Baltimore’s last 17 roadies and 7-2 with Baltimore a road favorite.

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5)

Why Seahawks cover: Okay, so Seattle might be the worst team in the league but Pittsburgh looked old and slow last week. And 14.5 is a lot of points.

Why Steelers cover: You know coach Mike Tomlin made life miserable for Steelers this past week. Pittsburgh has been good bounce-back bet, with ATS upswings of 4-0 following a SU loss and 4-0 after a pointspread defeat.

Total (40.5): Seattle on over streaks of 15-5-1 overall, 19-7-1 as a pup, 8-1 after a non-cover and 15-5-2 after a SU loss.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at San Francisco 49ers

Why Cowboys cover: Tony Romo & Co. should be fuming after giving away season opener vs. Jets, and Cowboys can ill afford 0-2 start. Niners 1-6 ATS last seven after SU win and 1-9-1 ATS in last 11 after spread-cover.

Why 49ers cover: 9-4-2 ATS mark last 15 as underdog, while Dallas 1-7 ATS last eight laying points. Home team 3-0-1 ATS in last four Niners-Cowboys contests.

Total (42.5): Dallas on torrid 14-2 over streak, with over hitting in six of last seven roadies. Over 5-1 in San Fran’s last six overall and 4-1 in 49ers’ last five at home.

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-7)

Why Chargers cover: Norv Turner’s troops rock solid ATS in underdog role, at 22-6-3 in last 31 overall and 18-6-3 in last 27 on road. Plus, pup 6-2 ATS in last eight Chargers-Pats contests.

Why Patriots cover: Bill Belichick’s boys have beaten the number six of last eight games, all as a chalk.

Total (53.5): If Tom Brady is taking snaps, over is smart play. Pats on over streaks of 17-4 overall, 15-5-1 at home and 14-2 as chalk.

Houston Texans (-3) at Miami Dolphins

Why Texans cover: Confident squad coming off blowout home win over Colts. Fish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.

Why Dolphins cover: Chad Henne played well in defeat last week. Houston is in unfamiliar territory as road favorite.

Total (47.5): Higher scores the norm for Dolphins at home, with over 12-4-1 last 17 in South Beach.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-4.5)

Why Bengals cover: Expectations way low in season opener, yet won outright getting 6.5 points at Cleveland. In fact, Bengals have covered four in a row overall, five of last six September tilts and four of last five as pup.

Why Broncos cover: New coach John Fox should be steaming after team’s poor effort in season-opening home loss to Raiders.

Total (40): Broncos carry over streaks of 17-5 overall, 9-0 laying points and 6-1 in Mile High City.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Why Eagles cover: Because Michael Vick is too versatile. Last week, he threw for 187 yards and two TDs, and he ran for another 97 yards in win/cover at St. Louis.

Why Falcons cover: Should be plenty focused after getting battered at Chicago in Week 1, and they’ve shown propensity for bounce back, at 16-5 ATS last 21 after either SU or pointspread loss.

Total (49.5): Scoring is order of day for both squads. Over 10-4 in Eagles’ last 14 outings and has hit in seven straight roadies for Philly. Over for Atlanta on surges of 9-2-2 overall.

St. Louis Rams at New York Giants (-5.5)

Why Rams cover: Giants are missing a good chunk of their starting defense due to injuries.

Why Giants cover: Rams likely without star RB Steven Jackson, and St. Louis QB Sam Bradford will play but nursing hand injury. Tom Coughlin’s squad 4-1 ATS last five under Monday night spotlight, Giants on 5-0 ATS tear in this rivalry, and chalk 5-2 ATS last seven meetings.

Total (43): Eli Manning & Co. mustered just 14 points last week, but stats say they’re due for much more, with Giants on over stretches of 15-7 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-2 in September and 15-5 within NFC.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-17-2011, 11:56 PM

NFL

Sunday, September 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday Night Football: Eagles at Falcons
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5, 49.5)

THE STORY: Michael Vick will make a second homecoming trip to Atlanta and, naturally, will be the center of attention – but for all the right reasons this time. Vick and the Dream Team otherwise known as the Philadelphia Eagles will visit the Georgia Dome for a high-profile, prime-time clash with the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night.

Vick, the No. 1 overall pick in 2001, was a huge fan favorite in his six seasons in Atlanta, earning three Pro Bowl berths before he was jailed for nearly two years on federal dogfighting charges. His replacement, Matt Ryan, has gone 20-2 at home in his first three seasons and is in need of win No. 21 to prevent the Falcons from falling to 0-2 after a lopsided 30-12 loss at Chicago last week.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

LINE MOVEMENT: Depending on where you shop, the Falcons are anywhere from +3 to +1 home underdogs for Sunday night’s contest. Most Las Vegas books are dealing Atlanta +2.5. The total opened at 49.5 and has moved to 50 at only a few shops.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (0-1): Atlanta posted the NFC’s best record with a 13-3 mark in 2010, but that proved to be ancient history as the Falcons were humbled by the Bears in their season opener. Atlanta failed to score an offensive touchdown and committed three turnovers, including a fumble by Ryan that was returned for a touchdown. Ryan also threw a first-quarter interception that led to a TD. RB Michael Turner rushed for 100 yards but it came on only 10 carries as Ryan went to the air 47 times. Rookie Julio Jones had five receptions for 71 yards in his NFL debut.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-0): Philadelphia started slowly before turning on the jets and pulling away for a 31-13 win at St. Louis in its opener. Vick was not especially sharp passing (14 of 32, 187 yards) but he threw for a pair of touchdowns and rushed for 97 yards. DeSean Jackson ignored his contract squabble to haul in six receptions for 102 yards and a TD while LeSean McCoy piled up 122 yards rushing and a TD on only 15 carries. He also caught a scoring pass. Philly’s defense racked up five sacks, including two by Jason Babin, but did surrender 156 yards rushing.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Eagles have dominated the Falcons in their last two meetings, winning 31-17 in Philadelphia last season and 34-9 in Atlanta in 2009. The Eagles have beaten the Falcons four straight times and are 8-1 against them under coach Andy Reid.

2. Ryan has thrown for 32 TDs and 12 interceptions in 22 home games. When he compiles a quarterback rating of 100 or higher, the Falcons are a perfect 16-0.

3. “That’s not my house. That’s Matt Ryan’s house. I’m just a visitor.” – Vick on returning to the Georgia Dome, where he played his first six seasons.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.
* Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Eagles are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Atlanta.
* Favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.

PREDICTION: Eagles 27, Falcons 24. While Philadelphia’s team speed will be difficult to handle, the ability of cornerbacks Asante Samuel and Nnamdi Asomugha to neutralize Atlanta's passing game will ultimately make the difference.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-18-2011, 12:00 AM

NFL

Sunday, September 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL betting weather report: Week 2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Check what the weather has in store this weekend:

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+5.5, 38)

Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Nashville Sunday. There’s a 40 percent chance of rain, which could slow down dynamic running backs Ray Rice and Chris Johnson. This total has climbed just half a point since opening at 37.5.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+3, 42.5)

The sun will be out in the Bay Area, but the winds at Candlestick could make passing and kicking the football tougher for the Niners and Cowboys. Winds, blowing west sideline to sideline, will reach speeds of 15 mph Sunday. This total has climbed a point after opening at 41.5.

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (+3, 47.5)

Thunderstorms are on their way to South Beach. There’s a 32 percent chance of rain in the forecast for Sun Life Stadium. Winds will also pick up, blowing ENE at speeds of up to 15 mph. Sunday’s total has climbed as high as 48 after opening at 46 points.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-19-2011, 08:24 AM

NFL

Monday, September 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rams at Giants: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

St. Louis Rams at New York Giants (-6.5, 44)

THE STORY: The St. Louis Rams resembled a M*A*S*H unit before the end of last week's season-opening loss to Philadelphia. That won’t earn much sympathy around the NFL, particularly from the injury-riddled New York Giants, who host the Rams on Monday Night Football in their home opener.

Bumps and severe bruises aside, the most pressing concern for both clubs is avoiding an 0-2 start to the season after each suffered double-digit losses a week ago. One intriguing subplot is the return of Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo, who was New York’s defensive coordinator in its stunning run to the Super Bowl following the 2007 season.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (0-1): New York failed to mount much offense and didn’t score in the second half of last week’s 28-14 loss at Washington. Eli Manning had an interception returned for a TD in the first two minutes of the second half and wound up getting sacked four times.

He could be without top wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, who is battling a badly bruised knee. Nicks had seven receptions for 122 yards against the Redskins. The Giants were without defensive ends Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck last week, although Tuck could play Monday. They already lost starting cornerback Terrell Thomas and middle linebacker Jonathan Goff for the season.

ABOUT THE RAMS (0-1): Star RB Steven Jackson burst up the middle for a 47-yard TD on his first carry last week. He exited with an injured quad on his next carry and is a game-time decision to play against the Giants.

St. Louis also will be without Danny Amendola, last season’s leading receiver, and cornerback Ron Bartell. At least three other starters could miss the game. QB Sam Bradford is expected to wear a glove to protect the finger he injured in last week’s 31-13 loss to the Eagles. Cadillac Williams excelled in place of Jackson, rushing for 91 yards and catching five passes for 49 yards.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning is 2-0 with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in two games against the Rams, who have dropped four in a row to the Giants.

2. Bradford, the No. 1 overall pick in 2010, needs 300 yards to reach 4,000 for his career. He’ll be hurt by the absence of Amendola, who had 85 catches last season.

3. With Spagnuolo as the defensive coordinator, the Giants amassed a league-high 53 sacks in 2007. The unit was instrumental in slowing down Tom Brady and New England’s high-powered offense in New York’s stunning Super Bowl upset.

TRENDS:

The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with losing records and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games coming off ATS loss.

The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday night games but 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

The over is 4-1 in the Rams' last five games as underdogs and 15-7 in the Giants' last 22 games overall.

LINE MOVEMENT:

The G-Men opened up between 4.5- and 5.5-point favorites and have been bet up to the touchdown spread. Most shops still have New York favored by 6.5 points but a few books have made the move to -7.

The total opened at 43.5 and hasn't moved much all week. Sunday night 44 was the most commonly used number for this game's total but bettors should expect the line to grow as public bettors back the over in the stand-only game.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Rams 13. RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs combined for only 73 yards on 19 carries last week. Expect a renewed emphasis on the running game as the Giants gradually wear down the battered Rams.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (9/18 - 9/19)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (9/18 - 9/19)

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment