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What's up all. Good to be back! No official plays week 1, just 1 lean.
Chicago +3 over Atlanta
The Bears qualify for an 82-43 ATS first week trend. Atlanta's defense was poor last year (28th against the run allowing 4.6 YPR,14th versus pass allowing 6.9 YPPA) and they didn't make any improvements. Also, ATL was fortunate at +14 in turnover ratio lasy year (over an extended amount of games this well regress to close to 0). Chicago's D was 4th and 8th against the run/pass last year, and I don't see them falling off. Offensively, I think Cutler should have success against the Falcon's D. My mathematical system has the Falcons as 1 point favs, so there is slight value on the Bears. I am tempted to make this a play, but opt to stay away week 1.
Chicago +3 over Atlanta
The Bears qualify for an 82-43 ATS first week trend. Atlanta's defense was poor last year (28th against the run allowing 4.6 YPR,14th versus pass allowing 6.9 YPPA) and they didn't make any improvements. Also, ATL was fortunate at +14 in turnover ratio lasy year (over an extended amount of games this well regress to close to 0). Chicago's D was 4th and 8th against the run/pass last year, and I don't see them falling off. Offensively, I think Cutler should have success against the Falcon's D. My mathematical system has the Falcons as 1 point favs, so there is slight value on the Bears. I am tempted to make this a play, but opt to stay away week 1.
i cheez'd up!
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