The Bum's NFL Week # 1 Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, September 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Chicago +1 500
Chicago - Under 40.5 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis +9 500
Houston - Over 44 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +4.5 500
Kansas City - Over 39.5 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +1 500
Jacksonville - Over 37 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland -6.5 500
Cleveland - Under 35.5 500

Philadelphia - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +3.5 500
St. Louis - Under 43.5 500

Pittsburgh - 1:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +1 500
Baltimore - Under 36.5 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -1 500 POD
Tampa Bay - Over 42.5 500

Minnesota - 4:15 PM ET San Diego -9 500
San Diego - Over 41.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:15 PM ET N.Y. Giants -2.5 500
Washington - Under 39.5 500

Carolina - 4:15 PM ET Carolina +6.5 500
Arizona - Under 37.5 500

Seattle - 4:15 PM ET San Francisco -5.5 500
San Francisco - Under 38 500

Dallas - 8:20 PM ET Dallas +6 500
N.Y. Jets - Over 40 500


Just a heads up......i liked DET when that line came out and i think too many people is on this game..... Only because of what they did in the preseason....Carefull with this one....

Am on the Bucs for my game of the day........

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots And Dolphins Start Monday Night Football Slate

The New England Patriots have made some bold moves to their roster as they begin a ‘Super Bowl or bust’ campaign at the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football.

The Don Best odds screen has New England a 6½-7 point road favorite with a total of 45 ½-points. ESPN will have the first half of its doubleheader at 7:00 p.m. (ET) from Sun Life Stadium, followed by the AFC West battle of Oakland at Denver.

New England went 14-2 straight up in the regular season last year, but it was considered a disappointment after a 28-21 home loss to the Jets as 9 ½-point home favorites in the divisional round of last year's playoffs.

The Patriots also lost to Baltimore (33-14) at home in their opening playoff game the year before.

Coach Bill Belichick decided to make a change on defense, switching mostly from a base 3-4 to a 4-3, although he still won’t admit it to the media. Veterans Albert Haynesworth Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter should join the starting front-four in addition to holdover Vince Wilfork.

That defensive line should hold up against the run and generate more pass rush, so the team isn’t last in the league again in third-down defense. One caveat is there could be an adjustment period with so many new players, plus the linebackers adjusting to new responsibilities. Ellis and Haynesworth have also been limited this preseason due to injuries.

Offensively, New England didn’t feel it had to do much after scoring 32.4 PPG last year, tops in the league. Chad Ochocinco was brought it to be an outside threat, but he’s struggling big time to learn the offense. Opposing defenses could take a page from the Jets playbook and load up defenders in the middle of the field, forcing Tom Brady to throw outside.

The offensive line usually does a great job protecting Brady, but was manhandled in the playoffs and also versus Detroit this preseason. Tackle Sebastian Vollmer (back) is listed as doubtful, which means rookie Nate Solder would have to start. Guard Dan Connolly (foot) is also questionable, which could mean a start for newly signed veteran Brian Waters.

Brady is just 4-5 SU and ATS in his nine lifetime starts in Miami. New England did win 41-14 as 1-point underdogs last year, getting three TDs from the special teams and defense. Miami won most recently in 2009, 22-21 as 4 ½-point home ‘dogs.

New England is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven road games. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in those games, scoring 33.1 PPG.

Miami coach Tony Sparano is back after a disappointing 7-9 SU and 8-8 ATS season, including losing the final three games (SU and ATS). Owner Stephen Ross flirted with the likes Jim Harbaugh, but Sparano got the nod almost by default.

Quarterback Chad Henne seemed to be another certain goner, at least as a starter. Denver’s Kyle Orton was very close to being acquired, but it fell through. The Michigan product Henne has looked better in the preseason, but his weapons are mediocre at best and a lot falls on his shoulders after a 15 touchdown, 19 interception season.

The running back situation has changed dramatically with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both gone. Reggie Bush was acquired from New Orleans, but he’s not an every-down back. That job supposed to go to rookie Daniel Thomas, but he’s had problems adjusting and is questionable with a hamstring injury.

The defense is an underrated group that finished sixth in the NFL last year in total yards (309.3 YPG) and tied for 13th in points (20.8 PPG). It has a great pass rusher in Cameron Wake (14 sacks last year) and the self-proclaimed top cornerback tandem in the league in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith.

Miami’s injury report is sparse besides Thomas, with offensive tackle Jake Long (knee) listed as probable.

Weather should be in the 80s at kickoff, with some humidity. Those warm conditions favor the Dolphins, although they’re just 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last seven September home games.

[StarDust Bum]

Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders Renew Rivalry

The second game of the Monday Night Football doubleheader comes from the Mile High City where the Denver Broncos host the hated division rival Oakland Raiders.

Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Denver has held steady as a 3-point favorite since early in the week on the Don Best odds screen.

Though the two rivals have been evenly matched at 5-5 straight up over their last 10 meetings, recent results have favored the Raiders. Oakland has won each of the last three meetings between the teams, both straight up and against the spread. In their two meetings last season, Oakland outscored Denver by a combined 98-37.

Oakland was 6-0 SU and ATS against AFC West opponents in 2010, but struggled at 2-8 outside of the division to finish the season 8-8. The Raiders return most of the players from last year’s team, but lost two very important players in cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha and tight end Zach Miller.

The loss of Asomugha, one of the best cornerbacks in the game, will undoubtedly hurt Oakland’s pass defense; but an improved front seven may help lessen the blow. Miller’s contribution in the passing game will also be missed, and while Kevin Boss was signed as a replacement, he is out for this game with an MCL injury.

Oakland’s offense will once again be led by talented running backs Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. The Raiders gashed through Denver’s defense last season with 592 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns over the two wins.

Denver will look to exploit the weaknesses in Oakland’s secondary with veteran quarterback Kyle Orton under center. Many believed that Tim Tebow would have the chance to run the offense in 2011, but Orton won the job after a far more polished performance in preseason camp.

Denver finished 4-12 a year ago due in large part to their porous defense. The Broncos used the second overall draft pick in the 2011 NFL Draft on linebacker Von Miller, and hope that he can help them turn the defense around, especially against the run.

The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home openers, but just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against the Raiders. Denver has lost three straight against Oakland at home, and is 0-5 ATS over the last five home games against the Raiders dating back to 2006.

The total for Monday night’s game is set at 40½. Considering the question marks on both defenses, and the fact that six of the last eight meetings have gone above the mark, the ‘over’ may be a popular play in this one.

A few clouds are expected, but there's no chance of rain in Denver on Monday when the temperature should be around 70 at kickoff. The Broncos will stay home for a Week 2 contest against the Bengals while the Raiders remain on the highway with a game in Buffalo.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF Doubleheader

September 10, 2011

The Week 1 NFL card wraps up on Monday night with a doubleheader of division showdowns. The night concludes with the Broncos hosting the Raiders in a battle of AFC West foes as Denver begins the John Fox era. The first game of the double-dip features the biggest road favorite on the board with New England traveling to Miami.

Patriots (-7, 45 ½) at Dolphins - 7:00 PM EST

New England opens up its season in South Florida after the Patriots swept the Dolphins in 2010. The Pats have failed to win a playoff game since the 2007 AFC Championship after coming up short against the Jets in the divisional round of the playoffs last season. The Dolphins look for any sort of spark to begin the season following a pair of 7-9 campaigns the last two years, while the quarterback situation will be in question.

Miami acquired standout receiver Brandon Marshall in April 2010 to help out Chad Henne, but the Dolphins struggled at times to score touchdowns, while posting a dreadful 1-7 record at home. The Fins picked up Reggie Bush from the Saints after the lockout as their top option out of the backfield, trying to bolster the ground game following the struggles of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams last season. Tony Sparano's club was an underdog just once at home last season as the Fins lost in a controversial finish to the Steelers, but cashed as three-point 'dogs in a 23-22 defeat.

The Patriots cruised the regular season with a 14-2 mark that included an eight-game winning streak to wrap up the regular season. The offense topped the 31-point mark in each of those victories following a 34-14 drubbing at Cleveland in Week 9. The interesting storyline with that Browns' debacle that ties into Monday night is offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who led Cleveland to over 400 yards in that upset, is now running the Dolphins' offense this season.

Bill Belichick's team cruised past Miami twice last season, including a 41-14 trouncing of the Fins at Sun Life Stadium on a Monday night in Week 4. The Patriots' offense wasn't spectacular, but the defense and special teams carried the load with three touchdowns, while setting up another score thanks to a blocked punt. New England closed as a one-point 'dog that night, while posting a 3-2 ATS mark as a road favorite last season.

The Dolphins have been an effective underdog in Sparano's tenure by compiling a 19-11 ATS ledger when receiving points, even though the record sits at 4-6 ATS as a home 'dog since 2008. These two teams have split the last 10 meetings in South Florida, while the Patriots have won at Sun Life Stadium in consecutive years only once in this span (2007-08).

Raiders at Broncos (-3, 40) - 10:15 PM EST

The week wraps up in Denver with the Broncos seeking revenge for a pair of losses to the rival Raiders last season. Denver opened up as a one-point favorite when Week 1 lines were released months ago, but the decision to retain Kyle Orton as the starting quarterback drove this line up to -3, quieting the Tim Tebow rumors. Oakland is always under the microscope, but the Raiders swept through the AFC West last season with a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark.

The Silver and Black dominated the Broncos twice in 2010, including a 59-14 beatdown at Invesco Field as seven-point underdogs. That game was never in doubt as the Raiders scored three touchdowns in the first seven minutes, while building a 38-0 lead in the second quarter. Oakland took care of business at the Black Hole in December with a 39-23 triumph as 9 ½-point favorites in Tebow's first start under center for the Broncos. The Raiders' defense limited Denver to three field goals in the final three quarters, while rushing for 264 yards on the beat-up Broncos' defense.

Orton put up solid passing numbers last season, but that didn't translate into many victories with Denver compiling a 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS record in his 13 starts. The defense will receive a boost this season with DE Elvis Dumervil returning from a pectoral injury suffered in 2010, as the former Louisville standout led the league in sacks in 2009 with 17.

The Raiders are a coin-flip proposition the last two seasons on the highway with an 8-8 ATS mark, but Oakland has lost eight straight games in Week 1 with only two covers in this stretch. The Broncos are opening their season at home for the first time since 2004, when Denver picked up a 34-24 victory over Kansas City in a Sunday night thriller.

[StarDust Bum]

Raiders at Broncos: What bettors need to know

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3, 40)

THE STORY: Most of the offseason talk surrounding the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders centered on their respective quarterbacks. No surprise there, except in both cases the quarterbacks in question are not expected to be contributors this season.

Tim Tebow and Terrelle Pryor will be watching from the sideline when Denver opens the season by hosting Oakland in an AFC West matchup on Monday night. Of more consequence, each team will feature new head coaches (John Fox for the Broncos and Hue Jackson for the Raiders) amid renewed optimism that both can challenge for the division crown.

TV: ESPN, 10:15 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2010: 4-12, 4th, AFC West): Ex-Carolina Panthers coach Fox was brought in to help plug a sieve defense that allowed an NFL-high 471 points last season. Kyle Orton, the subject of major trade rumors in the offseason, returns as the starter after throwing for 3,653 yards and 20 TDs in 13 games last season. Although Brandon Lloyd led the league with 1,448 receiving yards, expect a more balanced offense with Willis McGahee joining former first-round draft pick Knowshon Moreno in the backfield. LB Von Miller was drafted No. 2 overall to bolster the defense, and the pass rush in particular.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2010: 8-8, 3rd AFC West): Oakland ended a string of seven straight seasons with double-digits losses, but it couldn’t save head coach Tom Cable’s job. The Raiders went 6-0 against the division, helped in large part by a breakout season from RB Darren McFadden, who finally lived up to his billing as a No. 4 overall pick and was second overall in the league with 128.0 yards from scrimmage per game. With a stable of speedy, young receivers, QB Jason Campbell (2,387 yards, 13 TDs) may be asked to do more in his second season with the Raiders.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Raiders annihilated the Broncos in two meetings last season, outscoring them 98-37. That included a 59-31 thrashing in which McFadden romped for four touchdowns.

2. Denver usually starts the season well, posting an AFC-best 32-18-1 mark in season openers, including winning 16 of the last 22. The Broncos also have won 11 consecutive home games on Kickoff Weekend.

3. In their glory days under owner Al Davis, the Raiders were known as the Kings of Monday Night. Not anymore. Oakland has lost 11 straight games in prime time since beating Denver in November 2008.

TRENDS:

The Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against AFC West opponents but 1-5 ATS in their last six Week 1 games.

The Broncos are 11-25-2 ATS in their last 38 home games and 8-26-1 in their last 35 games as favorites.

The over is 5-1 in Denver’s last six home games.

LINE MOVEMENT:

This game opened as a pick ‘em at most sportsbooks back in early August but got bet up to Broncos -3. The game is still at Denver by a field goal but the juice is starting to climb (-125 on Sunday afternoon). We could see the line close with Oakland getting 3.5 points.

The total sits at 40.5 and has been around that numbers since oddsmakers first opened the over/under line.

PREDICTION: Broncos 20, Raiders 19. One of the league’s best home-field advantages comes into play as Fox wins his debut – narrowly – and Denver avenges a pair of humbling beatings by Oakland last season.

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots at Dolphins: Who'll cover the spread?

We’ve got a double-header for the first edition of Monday Night Football this season but we’re zeroing on the first game in this week’s debate.

Russ Loede from PatriotsGab.com tells us why New England is the right play while Kevin Nogle from ThePhinsider.com argues in favor of the home underdog.

WHY THE PATRIOTS COVER

Henne without run game

For the Dolphins to function, they have to run the football and control the clock against the Patriots. Rookie running back Daniel Thomas is nursing a hamstring injury and I don't believe the Fish can show New England a balanced offensive attack with Reggie Bush and Larry “I can’t believe I’m not retired” Johnson running the ball.

Bill Belichick, is going to have fun playing games with the erratic and mistake-prone Chad Henne knowing the ground game is absent.

Devin McCourty

A budding star at cornerback, the second-year pro from Rutgers will be asked to shadow the Dolphins best playmaker; Brandon Marshall. McCourty will shut down Marshall and take away Miami’s best offensive weapon in the process.

Brady's quick release

Cameron Wake is a force to be reckoned with but the Pats can limit the pass rusher because of Brady's precise pocket presence. The 2010 NFL MVP will operate fully aware of Wake's presence and ability to change a game.

Fortunately, the scintillating signal caller has a vast array of intermediate weapons to sling the rock to before Cam reaches him. New England’s offense is filled with players who can find space and get open quickly. Mismatches will abound and Brady and the Patriots will find ways to pick apart the Dolphins’ pass defense.

WHY THE DOLPHINS COVER THE SPREAD

Dolphins Defense

For some reason, Miami's sixth ranked defense from last season has been completely forgotten at the start of this year - and all the Dolphins did was get better.

They have the most incredibly deep defensive line I have ever seen. Jared Odrick, last season's first round draft choice who sat out the year on IR, is now the third string right defensive end behind Randy Starks and Phillip Merling - yet Ordick is seen as a starting caliber defensive end.

Then there's the emergence of Cameron Wake as an elite pass rusher. With his 14 sacks last year and Pro Bowl selection, you would think people would respect the Dolphins' ability to get to the quarterback, but for some reason, they aren't.

And finally, our cornerbacks are amazing. They may not become the "best tandem in the NFL," as Vontae Davis declared earlier this preseason, but they (Davis and Sean Smith) are going to be right there with the best.

This defense is going to be scary, and people just don't realize it yet.

New Offense

Last year, the Dolphins ran an erratic offense. Every time they got into a rhythm, the offensive coordinator Dan Henning would call a random play that would kill the drive. This year, with offensive coordinator Brain Daboll, things appear to be different.

Everyone in Miami is talking about how the offense is "attacking" and "explosive." In 2008, the Dolphins unleashed the Wildcat formation on the Patriots and decimated them with it. The Dolphins will look to establish this new offense in much the same way.

Chad Henne

We all know the Dolphins were talking with the Denver Broncos about acquiring quarterback Kyle Orton. But, that didn't happen, so everyone assumes Miami is a mess behind center.

But, Chad Henne hasn't played like a mess. He actually looked good this preseason and he could be the guy who finally solidifies the QB position in Miami.

Daboll's offense allows Henne to actually audible to any play necessary, instead of just a one play "check with me" option like last year, which will give Henne some needed freedom.

In today's NFL, the success of first year starters like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez have people expecting a rookie to always come in and immediately demonstrate greatness. We forget that Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady all sat and developed before getting on to the field. Chad Henne got one year under Chad Pennington before he was made the starter.

Now, in his third year as that starter, Henne appears ready to actually take the reins.

[StarDust Bum]

Sportsbook manager praying for Dolphin cover in MNF

Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook manager Jay Kornegay is praying for the Dolphins to cover tonight’s 7 p.m. ET home game.

The Patriots, always a public favorite, have drawn so much action both in the game and on parlay cards that it’s put the sportbook in a precarious spot.

“I’m going to church, so I think that could help,” Kornegay told *********** Monday afternoon. “The parlay liability on the Patriots tonight is insane. We’re pretty much at the mercy of that game.”

More than 90 percent of the action has poured in on the Patriots. The Hilton opened them as 4-point favorites way back in April, and they were 6.5-point favorites a week ago. The number has moved to 7.5.

“At 7.5 we’re getting equal action, but that’s not going to put a dent into what has already accumulated,” Kornegay said.

This one game has the potential to ruin a fine opening weekend for the books.

“We had plenty of underdogs cover, a few win outright,” Kornegay said. “Unfortunately, we’ve got an issue with the Patriots. It seems like every bet is going to the Patriots.”

Many players took the Patriots, at 6.5 or 7, as the final leg on their parlay cards.

“If a guy hits the last leg on a 3-teamer with the Patriots, he wins 600. If he loses, we win 100,” Kornegay said. “It feels like a landslide where we can lose a lot but not really win a lot.”

In the late game, Denver is drawing most of the action and has been bet up from -1 to -3 (-120) at most books.

MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jay Rood, noting the Raiders’ injuries at receiver, told *********** that “it might be more of a play against Oakland than it is for Denver.”

Rood added that if the betting pattern continues, he’ll consider moving the line to 3.5. You can already find 3.5 if you look around.

[StarDust Bum]

Raiders at Broncos: Tale of the tape

If you’re new to our Tale of the Tape pieces, we use them to dig into stand-alone college games throughout the season. They’re stat heavy, hard-hitting, and quick, so that you’ll be able to rip through them and still have time to put a bet in while you’re stocking the fridge with beer.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3, 40.5)

Offense

Both the Broncos and Raiders averaged 5.5 yards per play last season, but went about their attacks in very different ways. Denver threw the ball on 60 percent of its offensive plays while Oakland had about a 50-50 split between runs and passes.

This year Denver is expected to lean on the run more now that Josh McDaniels is in St. Louis and the club will need to improve on a rushing average of 3.9 yards per attempt. The Broncos also struggled with third down (32.3 percent) and fourth down (31.1 percent) conversions.

Oakland averaged 25.6 points per game thanks in large part to the running game. They put up almost 156 yards on the ground per game, while averaging 4.9 yards per attempt (No. 2 in the NFL). Now they just have to work on the passing attack, which completed only 56.8 of its attempts last year.

Defense

Oakland’s defense struggled to contain the run last season, allowing 133.6 rushing yards per game, but they really got after the quarterback. The Raiders finished with 47 sacks, just one behind the league-leading Steelers. They were also pretty tough on third-down plays, holding their opposition to a 34.8 percent conversion rate.

Denver allowed opponents to complete better than 59 percent of its passing attempts last season but held teams to 236 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Broncos yielded about 154 yards per contest on the ground. One of Denver’s biggest issues on defense last year was pressuring the quarterback. The Broncos finished last in the league with only 23 sacks.

Special teams

Oakland tied for first in the league with 33 field goals made last season, but only converted 80.5 percent of its kicks, while ranking second in punting with a 46.8 yard-per-attempt average. Denver averaged 44.6 yards per punt and hit 88 percent of its field goals.

The Broncos managed 24.3 yards per kickoff return but only 10.1 yards on punt returns. Oakland was even worse in the punt return department, averaging just seven yards. The Raiders weren’t much better on kickoffs with a 22.5 yard average, but they did manage to take three of those returns to the house.

Word on the street

"The veterans on the team talk about how they killed us last year. But this is a new year, we've got a new coach, new players and hopefully it'll be different this year." – Denver’s Von Miller on losing both matchups with Oakland last season.

"That just shows how versatile this offence can be. We can take anybody and just be a home run hit and just a chip away team. We're very capable of hitting the big play, the long run, long catch, anything. We're just a big play offence just waiting to explode." – Oakland receiver Jacoby Jones on Oakland’s big-play offense. The Raiders had eight passing plays of 50 or more yards last season – tied for second in the NFL.

Final score prediction

Oakland 21, Denver 17

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, September 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New England - 7:00 PM ET New England -7 500
Miami - Under 46.5 500

Oakland - 10:15 PM ET Oakland +3 500
Denver - Under 41.5 500

[electric monkey]

wish you the best Bum. One question if I may, Is there a way to see what games are on a parlay card earlier since I usually dont see one till Thursday.

[BettorsChat]

wish you the best Bum. One question if I may, Is there a way to see what games are on a parlay card earlier since I usually dont see one till Thursday.

Welcome to the forum!

[electric monkey]

Glad to be a part of it. Thank You.

[StarDust Bum]

Monkey ....i don't understand what your saying about the parlay card.........can you explain to me what your looking for....

Thanks

[electric monkey]

What games would be on it or does it just vary from book to book? Thanks

[StarDust Bum]

I would think each book decides what games they want to put on their cards......maybe someone else can answer that question......where are you putting in your cards at now?