The Bum's NFL Week # 1 Best Bets !

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Week 1 Tip Sheet

September 8, 2011

The Week 1 NFL card provides bettors with 13 games on Sunday, as seven playoff teams from last season kick off their season at 1:00 PM EST. There are several key contests involving clubs that both made the second round, including the Falcons battling the Bears while the Ravens host the Steelers. We'll begin with the team that has caught everyone's eye in this brief offseason as the Eagles showcase their talents in Eastern Missouri.

Eagles (-4 ½, 43) at Rams - 1:00 PM EST

Philadelphia made headlines with a multitude of big-name signings following the lockout, as the Eagles look to capitalize off last season's NFC East title. Andy Reid's squad was a coin-flip proposition against the number last season by finishing 8-9 ATS, while not covering three straight games at any point. It will not be an easy task for Philadelphia as it takes on a St. Louis team that made a drastic improvement in 2010.

The Rams won more games last season (7) than they did in the previous three years combined (6), while pulling off three outright home underdog wins in the first six weeks of the season. St. Louis' offense wasn't outstanding, but the defense held seven of its first eight opponents to 18 points or less, turning the Rams into one of the best 'under' bets in the NFL. The Rams can't afford to get behind the eight-ball in the weak NFC West with four of their first five games coming against teams that won at least 10 games last season.

Steelers at Ravens (-1 ½, 36) - 1:00 PM EST

These two AFC North powers have seen each of their previous seven meetings decided by seven points or less, while Pittsburgh took two of three matchups from Baltimore last season. The Steelers are seeking their ninth straight opening week victory, including a 6-2 ATS mark in this stretch. The Ravens, meanwhile, cashed in just three of eight home games in 2010, while losing at home to Pittsburgh, 13-10 as three-point favorites.

Mike Tomlin's club hasn't been listed as an underdog many times in his four-year tenure, owning a 6-6 ATS record when receiving points. Regardless of the result on Sunday, the Steelers should cruise the next six weeks with matchups against the Seahawks, Colts, Texans, Titans, Jaguars, and Cardinals prior to a showdown versus the Patriots on October 30 at Heinz Field.

Falcons (-3, 40 ½) at Bears - 1:00 PM EST

Chicago finished one game short of the Super Bowl thanks to a 21-14 loss to the eventual champion Packers in the NFC Title game, as the Bears welcome in the highly-touted Falcons. Atlanta has yet to win a playoff game with Matt Ryan at quarterback, but the Falcons are expected to do big things once again in 2011 after covering 11 of 17 games last season.

Three of the first four games are away from the Georgia Dome for the Falcons, as Mike Smith's team looks to capitalize off a 6-2 ATS mark on the highway last season, including a 5-1 ATS ledger as road 'chalk.' The Falcons are making their first trip to Soldier Field since 2005 when the Bears pulled out a December victory, 16-3 as 3 ½-point favorites. Chicago has won five of its previous six home openers under Lovie Smith, including twice as short underdogs against Detroit (2005) and Pittsburgh (2009).

Bills at Chiefs (-6, 40) - 1:00 PM EST

Kansas City captured the AFC West title by taking care of its business outside of the division with an 8-3 SU/ATS mark. Four of the Chiefs' first five opponents are non-division foes as Todd Haley's club welcomes in the Bills to Arrowhead Stadium. Buffalo pushed Kansas City to the limit last October by cashing as seven-point favorites in a 13-10 overtime setback.

In spite of starting last season with eight consecutive losses, the Bills managed to cover five of their final eight games down the stretch, including outright wins at Cincinnati and Miami. Somehow, the Bills are pointspread gold in the opening week of the season with Week 1 covers in five of the last six seasons. The Chiefs aren't a great play as favorites under Haley by posting a 4-7 ATS record when laying points, even though Kansas City went 3-3 ATS as home 'chalk' last season.

What else to watch for:

The Giants head into Washington looking to beat the Redskins for the sixth straight time at FedEx Field in one of the four late kickoffs. Seven of the Redskins' eight home games last season were decided by six points or less, while holding five opponents at home to less than 17 points.

The Seahawks won the NFC West with a 7-9 record, but most of that damage was done at Qwest Field. Seattle picked up just two victories on the highway, dropping its road record to 5-20 SU since the start of 2008. Amazingly, 19 of those 20 losses have come by double-digits as the Niners enter Sunday's opener as five-point favorites.

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Las Vegas Money Moves

September 8, 2011

It was almost like betting heaven watching all the initial betting action on the college football lines Monday afternoon, the first of it's kind in this young season. Each book's opening lines immediately tell you where the numbers will go, and who they wanted to take their first bet on, but to actually watch it all unfold for the first time this year was invigorating.

Football season is upon us and we'll be at full throttle all weekend beginning Thursday night with the Saints/Packers and Arizona/Oklahoma State all the way through the double-header Monday night football action. The overload of football is going to come in strong and heavy doses, so be prepared and stay hydrated.

Last week was the first slate of college football play on the field, but the lines had been up for three months making the week of their first game not as intense at the windows with a late money push coming on game day.

Pro football has the same type of situation this week where their games have been open since April so there wasn't really any rush to the bet windows other than trying to get action on the Texans as it became more apparent that Peyton Manning would not start for the first time in his career.

But at what point is it that the drop off from not having Manning is too much? Most sportsbooks have settled on the Texans being an 8 ½-point favorite after initially opening it -6 ½ when news broke that he likely wouldn't play. The early line had the Colts as a 1-point favorite before knowing the severity of Manning's neck problems. We're talking almost a 10-point swing here....for one player? That is crazy! It's unheard of -- and likely too overpriced -- but how else are you going to sell Kerry Collins to the public?

Sportsbooks that have tested the waters with Houston -9 have quickly got action on the Colts, so we know that is threshold. Most sportsbook directors feel the game is way too high, but have reacted quickly with moves on low limits as the bets have come in. The feeling amongst many of the books is that the line should be around -6 ½, but at this point they're just moving with the action. As we get closer to kickoff, it wouldn't be a surprise to see heavy action come in on the Colts when the game is taken out of the circle, or limited action.

If you're a sharp bettor with an opinion on the game, why would you waste your valuable opinion for sportsbooks to follow for a mere $2,000 when you can wait and get $20,000 on it?

As for the value of Manning, he is without a doubt the most valuable player to any team, but probably is still worth only seven points. He has taken a mediocre team the last few seasons and routinely made them a championship caliber squad just because of how well he operates the offense on the fly.

His impact will also be felt on an emotional level with his teammates. It's much easier to play well and wait for the other team to make mistakes when you're always ahead or in close games. What's going to happen if the Colts get down to a team they have virtually owned knowing they don't have No. 18 back there to lead the charge back. Kerry Collins is a serviceable quarterback, but he hasn't had time to mesh with the team and even had the Colts star receiver, Reggie Wayne, being vocal about him being named the starter in preseason.

Sharp moves of the week include the Steelers, Rams and Saints. The public plays will continue to be with the Browns, Texans, Falcons, Eagles, Giants, Cardinals and Patriots.

The surprise off the public list this week is the Chargers as it looks like last season is still stinging with many of their backers. Reports have seen pretty balanced action, or at least far less one-sided than most Charger games, with the Vikings finding some supporters in hopes of Norv Turner remaining Norv Turner this season.

Here's a look at the biggest movers in pro football through Thursday compared to the Las Vegas Hilton's initial week one opening lines of April 23:

The Ravens opened -3 (EV) against the Steelers and are now -1 ½.

The Buccaneers opened as 3-point home favorites against the Lions, got early Lions money and have now bounced around from -1 ½ to -2 where it sits now.

Chicago opened as 1-point favorites and are now +3 (-120) against the Falcons.

Kansas City opened -6 ½ against the Bills, dropped to -5 ½ and then bet back up to -6.

Cleveland opened -3 (EV) against the Bengals and quickly moved up to -6 ½.

Jacksonville was a -2 ½ home favorite against Tennessee, went up to -3, and then off the board when David Garrard was released. It went back up as Jacksonville -2 and has stayed there showing the lack of respect for Garrard and also showing the impact of great QB's when comparing Manning.

Arizona opened as a 3-point home favorite against Carolina and were quickly bet up to -7 after watching Kolb and Fitzgerald play catch in the pre-season.

The 49ers were -6 ½ against the Seahawks and have been bet down to -5.

San Diego opened -10 ½ and were bet against early down to -9 and finally -8 ½ where it sits now.

The Jets opened -4 and were bet up to -4 ½, then got action on Thursday forcing a move to the dead number of -5 ½, skipping -5 altogether.

New England opened -3 ½ and has been bet up to -7.

Denver opened as -1 ½ home-favorites and were moved to -3 on a combination of bets and air moves due to Broncos looking much improved and the Raiders looking awful in pre-season.

College Football Moves of the Week:

Wisconsin got early sharp action at -19 ½ and was bet up to -21 where it sits now against Oregon State.

Kentucky moved from -11 ½ to -13 in their home against Central Michigan.

SMU opened as a -17-point home favorite against UTEP and moved quickly up the ladder to -20 until finding some takers dropping it back to -19 where it sits now.

Tulane has found a lot of sharp play at +14 all the way down to +11 ½, where it sits now, for their home game against Tulsa.

East Carolina has been bet on for their home game against Virginia Tech taking +20 all the way down to +17 ½ where it sits now.

Washington was mysteriously put up as a -3 ½-point favorite in what looks kind of like a shady opening number that many sports books followed and was quickly bet up to -6 against Hawaii where it sits now.

Stanford found some early action at -20 ½ at Duke, but sharp action took the +21 dropping the game back down where the public will continue to lay Stanford.

Florida has been bet from -21 ½ to -23 in their home game against UAB.

USC opened -10 in their home game against Utah have been bet against down to -8 ½.

Ball State sharp action came fast at +22 ½ for their road game at South Florida and currently sits at -20.

Vanderbilt was a surprise pick'em for their home game against Connecticut, and even more surprisingly, was bet up to a 2-point favorite. UConn money has showed a little and it currently sits at Vandy -1 ½.

Arkansas State has moved from -13 ½ to -15 against Memphis.

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NFL Tech Trends - Week 1

September 6, 2011

Thursday, Sept. 8 - NBC, 8:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

NO at GB

The Saints have won and covered last three and five of past six openers. Although NO only 3-6 vs. line away LY and 6-7 as dog since 2007. Pack has won and covered last four openers, however. Pack also “under” 12-6 LY. Tech edge...slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.



Sunday, Sept. 11 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pitt at Balt

Pitt 5-1-1 vs. line last 7 meetings and has covered last three in series at Baltimore. Mike Tomlin 9-4 as dog since 2007. John Harbaugh has won and covered his last three openers. Steelers, based on series trends.

Detroit at Tampa Bay

Old rivals from the days of the former NFC Central. Lions were pointspread demons last season when covering 13 of 16. Detroit also “over” 12-6-2 in last 20 games. Lions also 7-1 vs. line last 8 vs. TB since 2000. Bucs have offered poor spread value at home since Raheem Morris took over in 2009, just 2-5-1 at Raymond James Stadium LY, 3-12-1 since 2009. Back a bit further, TB 3-15-1 against spread last 19 at home. Lions and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Atlanta at Chicago

Falcons 6-2 vs. line away LY and now 14-6 against number last 20 on road. Lovie just 1-3 vs. number last four openers. Falcons, based on team trends.

Buffalo at Kansas City

Bills actually 5-3 vs. line away LY and 9-5 vs. spread last 14 as visitor. Buffalo has also covered the last three years vs. KC and the last four meetings overall since 2005. Chiefs covered 5 of 8 at home LY but had recorded poor 6-17 spread mark at Arrowhead from 2007-09. Bills, based on team and series trends.

Indy at Houston

Colts have only covered one of last five at Reliant Stadium, and that was with Peyton Manning available. Indy 10-5-1 vs. line away since ‘09, but again, that was with Peyton Manning. Indy “over” 7-1 away LY and 12-5 “over” on road since ‘09. Kubiak “over” 13-5 last 18 since late ‘09, and “over” 11-1 last 12 in series. “Over” and Texans, based on series trends.

Philly at St. Louis

at Philly “over” 7-1 on road LY. Note Andy Reid just 2-3 as road chalk LY. Rams 7-4 as dog and 10-6 overall vs. number in 2010. Rams and “over,” based on team trends.


Cincy at Cleveland

Pat Shurmur debut at Cleveland. Browns just 2-6 vs. spread at home LY for Mangini. Note that Cincy has lost and failed to cover its last 3 openers, and Marvin Lewis 4-8 vs. spread last 12 on road. Browns have won and covered 3 of last 4 hosting Bengals. Slight to Browns, based on series trends.

Cincy at Cleveland

Mike Munchak Tennessee debut. Titans have won and covered 3 of last 4 visits to J’ville. Jags 4-1 as chalk for Del Rio LY after 7-18 mark previous 25 in role. “Unders” 6-2 last 8 in series (including five of last 6 meetings), although Jags “over” 13-6 last 19 overall since late ‘09. Slight to Titans, based on team and series trends.




Sunday, Sept. 11 - All games to start at 4:15 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

NYG at Washington

at NYG 7-2-1 vs. line last 10 meetings, although G-Men only split vs. number against Skins LY. The Shan covered last 4 on board in 2010. Shan “under” 5-3 at FedEx Field LY and Skins “under” 21-11 at home since ‘07, and “unders” 6-2 last 8 in series. Coughlin historically good as road chalk, 2-1 LY and 13-5 in role since late ‘06. “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


Carolina at Arizona

Ron Rivera debut at Carolina. Panthers were 4-12 vs. line LY for John Fox and 2-6 on road against spread. Carolina was also “under” 20-12-1 in the last 33 games of the Fox regime. Panthers also won and covered each of past two years vs. Cards. Whisenhunt only 1-5 as chalk LY after 7-2 mark in role two previous years. Cards “over” 7-2 last 9 at Glendale. Slight to Cards, based on recent Panther negatives.

Seattle at San Fran

Jim Harbaugh SF debut. Teams have split the last two years with home team winning and covering all four outings. 49ers 11-5-1 vs. line last 17 on board at Candlestick. Pete Carroll just 2-7 vs. spread on road LY, also “over” 7-2 away. Seattle “over” 25-13 its last 38 as visitor. 49ers and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

Minnesota at San Diego

Norv has failed to cover opener the past three years, although Bolts were 6-2 vs. spread as host LY and 8-3-1 vs. line last 12 at Qualcomm. Vikes 2-6-1 vs. line away from home LY in very difficult 2010 campaign. Slight to Chargers, based on team trends.




Sunday, Sept. 11 - NBC, 8:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Dallas at NY Jets

Cowboys 3-6 vs. line last nine as visitor but were 5-2 as dog LY and 7-3 in role since ‘09. Dallas also “over” 13-3 LY. Rex Ryan nothing special vs. spread at home (8-8 since 2009), and Jets “over” 12-4 LY and 16-5 last 21 as well. “Over” and Cowboys, based on “totals” and team trends.




Monday, Sept. 11 - ESPN, 7:00 & 10:15 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

NE at MIA

Belichick crushed Sparano in the two meetings LY (41-14 & 38-7), although he had dropped 4 of previous 5 vs. points against Dolphins. Belichick “over” 6-2 away LY and also “over” 15-3 last 18 since late ‘09. Sparano 2-6 vs. line at home LY as Dolphins continue to provide no spread value at home (14-34 last 48 dating to late 2004). Patriots and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


OAK at DENVER

Hue Jackson Oakland debut, John Fox Denver debut. Raiders destroyed Broncos in both games LY and have covered five straight in Denver. Oakland 8-2 vs. spread last 10 in series. “Overs” 6-2 last eight meetings. Broncos only 4-9 vs. line last 13 at home. Raiders and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

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Battered Giants Travel to Face Washington Redskins

The Washington Redskins have lost the last six meetings vs. the New York Giants.
The New York Giants' upcoming season could not look bleaker with the tremendous free agent moves made by their NFC East rivals in Philadelphia and Dallas. After losing multiple players to injuries and not making a single acquisition this offseason, the Giants' NFC chances do not seem very good.

The summer went a little bit better for the Washington Redskins mostly because of their additions of safety O.J. Atogwe from the St. Louis Rams and new multi-skilled running backs in Roy Helu Jr. and Tim Hightower.

The Redskins and Giants begin their season this Sunday at FedEx Field in Maryland, with the opening kickoff set for 4:15 p.m. (ET) and the game scheduled to be broadcast on FOX.

New York was sent out in the betting odds as 3-point road favorites right about the time the NFL lockout was lifted and that number has not moved since then. The total has stayed virtually stable at its current 37½-point mark as well.

New York has knocked off Washington six straight times dating back to 2008, but the Giants will have their hands full with a Redskins defense that will be eager to create turnovers.

Both the Redskins and Giants missed out on the playoffs in 2010 mostly due to their problems holding on to the ball in key situations. Eli Manning threw a career-high 25 interceptions last season, and if the Giants are going to overcome their early season injuries they will need Manning to conquer his turnover issues very quickly.

After a full offseason of battling, Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan ended up choosing the more experienced quarterback in Rex Grossman to face the Giants on Sunday afternoon. Grossman had been fighting for the starting position during the preseason with former Dolphins and BYU quarterback John Beck, who lost time due to an injury and the length of the lockout also working against him.

The Redskins lost their last five regular season home games and will have their hands full with a powerful Giants offense that has improved on the offensive line.

The issue at the moment for the Giants is their depth at the cornerback position. Top draft pick Prince Amukamara is expected to be out until at least October with a broken foot, but that is the least of their problems with Terrell Thomas, Bruce Johnson and Brian Witherspoon all suffering season-ending injuries in the preseason.

The Giants will be going into the start of the 2011 season with six men already on injured reserve and three others out indefinitely, and that does not even include Osi Umenyiora who has already been ruled out of Sunday’s game while still recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery.

Weather forecasts are suggesting game-time highs to reach around 75 degrees with a high chance of isolated thunderstorms throughout the day into early evening in the D.C. area.

With the weather projected to look gloomy for kickoff, this may end up being a sloppy start to the NFL season for both of these teams.

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Dallas Cowboys, NY Jets NFL Odds Preview

The Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets will close out the first Sunday of the 2011 NFL season at MetLife Stadium in front of a nationally-televised audience on NBC. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. (ET) and emotions will be running high with the contest falling on the 10th anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks in the Big Apple.

New York is currently listed as a 4 ½-point home favorite on the NFL spread and the betting total stands at 40 ½.

One of the major story lines leading into this game is twin brothers, Rex and Rob Ryan, taking part in this matchup on opposite sidelines. It will be the ninth time it has occurred, with Rex coming in with a 5-3 series lead.

The tide could certainly turn in Rob’s favor in the Lone Star State, as the Cowboys hold a 7-2 overall advantage over the Jets. Dallas has won three of the last five meetings, including a 34-3 win at Cowboys Stadium as 14 ½-point favorites in the most recent matchup (2007).

Tony Romo will be back inside the Cowboys’ huddle after having his 2010 campaign cut short with a broken left clavicle. He will likely face heavy pressure Sunday night and will be relying on three new offensive linemen to protect him.

Bettors will find that the Cowboys are 7-10 against the spread in their last 17 road games, while the ‘under’ holds a slight 9-8 advantage in those contests.

New York returns 18 starters from last year’s team that made a second-consecutive AFC Championship game appearance. The Jets were knocked out of the 2010 playoffs with a 24-19 loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers as 4 ½-point road underdogs.

Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez will lead the team and his 23 wins in his first two seasons (including playoffs) are tied for the second most by an NFL signal caller in the last 40 years. It’s the type of numbers that caused Ryan to name the former USC Trojans star a team captain.

Many league insiders are still questioning if Sanchez has what it takes to get New York to the next level, as he’s thrown 29 touchdown passes and 33 interceptions in two regular seasons.

Sanchez will have a new target on the outside with wide receiver Plaxico Burress returning to the gridiron for the first time in 1,001 days. He showed early glimpses of brilliance during Week 2 of the preseason, catching three passes for 66 yards and a touchdown in his first taste of live action.

The Jets are certainly known for their defense under their fearless leader on the sidelines and finished the exhibition season with a +6 turnover ratio. New York strikes fear in opposing quarterbacks and tallied 40 sacks a year ago, eight less than the NFL-leading Pittsburgh Steelers.

Bettors will watch this line carefully all weekend due to the Jets being 1-5 ATS as home favorites of 3½-7 points.

Weather forecasts are calling for game-time temperatures in the mid-60s and a 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms in East Rutherford, NJ.

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Eagles Begin Season At St. Louis Rams

The NFL team with the most hype heading into the 2011 regular season faces the team with arguably the most promise as the Philadelphia Eagles visit the St. Louis Rams on Sunday at the Edward Jones Dome.

The Eagles made headlines in the offseason by signing a number of high-profile free agents who they hope will help them advance in the playoffs this year, while the Rams fell just short of the postseason in 2010 despite starting a rookie at quarterback.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. Philadelphia is a 4 ½-point road favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with the total rising to 44 at some NFL betting outlets.

St. Louis is coming off a successful first season with Sam Bradford leading the offense at QB and hopes he will take the next step by helping the team win the NFC West this year. The Rams lost at Seattle 16-6 in the regular-season finale that decided the division title between two teams that finished 7-9, but Bradford earned valuable experience along the way and turned in one of the most prolific years ever for a rookie.

Bradford broke Peyton Manning’s NFL record for most completed passes and attempts by a first-year signal caller and also become just the third rookie to start all 16 games and throw for more than 3,000 yards. He was injury prone throughout his college career at Oklahoma, and his health remains a concern for a franchise trying to return to prominence.

The Eagles are in a similar position with their star QB Michael Vick, who was re-signed to a six-year, $100 million contract on August 29. Vick is coming off the best statistical year of his career after passing for 3,018 yards with 21 touchdowns through the air and nine more on the ground.

However, he has played 16 games only once in his entire eight-year career due to his reckless style of play that has led to injuries.

Philly went into last season believing Kevin Kolb was the heir apparent to former QB Donovan McNabb, but an early injury in the team’s season-opening 27-20 loss to Green Bay at home gave Vick an opportunity to play. The team dealt Kolb to Arizona in the offseason, one of many moves that was made following a loss to the Packers again at home in the divisional playoffs.

Among the players brought in to help the Eagles are cornerbacks Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who was acquired in the trade for Kolb along with a 2012 second-round draft pick. The defensive line also got deeper with the additions of defensive linemen Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins.

The offensive line and linebacking corps are the weak spots on a team looking to defend its NFC East title and improve upon a 10-6 record.

Philadelphia and St. Louis both enjoyed a lot of success in the preseason, combining to go 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 against the spread. The Rams were a perfect 4-0 SU and went 10-6 ATS last season, including 5-2 in their last seven home games. The ‘under’ went 4-1 in their last five games and has also cashed in the past four meetings with the Eagles.

Philly is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine games between the teams while St. Louis is 1-9-1 ATS in its past 11 season openers.

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Pittsburgh Steelers At Baltimore Ravens NFL Betting Preview

Right off the bat, two of the top contenders for the AFC Championship will meet in NFL betting action in Week 1 on Sunday, as the Pittsburgh Steelers pay a visit to their archrivals, the Baltimore Ravens.

M&T Bank Stadium will be the site of this crucial AFC North clash. Kickoff from Baltimore is slated for 1:00 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage on CBS.

The Steelers have had their ups and downs over the course of the past few seasons, going from Super Bowl champs in 2008 to out of the playoffs in 2009 and then back in the Super Bowl this past February. They feel like they have some unfinished business to tend to after dropping to the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV.

As always, when you talk about these two teams, you have to talk about fantastic defenses. The Pittsburgh defense ranked No. 1 in the league last year in scoring at 14.5 PPG and No. 2 in total defense at 276.8 YPG. It seems like this team almost always leads the NFL in rush defense, and last year was no exception at a svelte 62.8 YPG, almost 30 yards better than the nearest competitor.

Baltimore's defense wasn't exactly slouching either at 16.9 PPG and 318.9 YPG allowed. This might be one of the most unheralded secondaries in football this year. We know just how good Ed Reed is, but getting back Dominique Foxworth from last season's ACL injury and bringing in rookie Jimmy Smith will help out a ton.

Sergio Kindle, the linebacker from Texas, missed all of his rookie season as well, but he will be in the rotation in the front seven as well for Head Coach John Harbaugh.

Offensively, the Ravens have to feel that they are a better bunch this season. The team cut ties with Willis McGahee, Todd Heap and Derrick Mason, all at the ends of their careers, and added a slew of great pieces to the puzzle. Lee Evans was a preseason acquisition from the Buffalo Bills, and he has immediately built a rapport with Joe Flacco. Bryant McKinnie, a Pro-Bowl tackle joins the offensive line as well.

However, perhaps the biggest addition was that of Vonta Leach via free agency. Leach paved the way for Arian Foster to become the rushing leader in the league last season with the Houston Texans, and now, he expects to do the same for Ray Rice.

Rice only had 143 total yards as a receiver and a runner in three meetings against Pittsburgh last year though, a far cry from the average of 119.7 YPG he had last year against all other teams (including the postseason against the Kansas City Chiefs).

The Steelers return the core of the offense that took them to the Super Bowl last season. Mike Wallace continues to emerge as one of the top receivers in the game, but there are high hopes for Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown this year as well.

There's some concern about how Rashard Mendenhall is going to hold up after carrying the ball a whopping 385 times last year, including the postseason. He now has 627 carries in two seasons, something that head coach Mike Tomlin would love to decrease if he had a more solid stable in his backfield behind Mendenhall.

We hope you're ready for a close game. The last nine meetings of these teams have been decided by nine points or fewer, and the average margin of victory has been just 4.56 PPG. In the regular season last year, both road teams won, though Baltimore's win came with Ben Roethlisberger suspended in Week 4.

The underdog is 6-2-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings in this series, which is quite possibly why the Steelers have dropped from three-point underdogs down to just +1½. The total has been lined at 36.

After a week filled with rain, there is at least a chance for some dry weather on Sunday. Temperatures are only expected to be in the mid-70s with a 40 percent chance of storms.

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Cam Newton, Panthers Open At Arizona Cardinals

Carolina is 5-2 ATS in the last seveon meetings against the Cardinals.
Three years removed from making it to their first-ever Super Bowl, the Arizona Cardinals hope another bold move for a starting quarterback will eventually pay off as they open the 2011 regular season at home against the Carolina Panthers.

The Cardinals made a trade with Philadelphia for QB Kevin Kolb in the offseason while the Panthers will be starting a rookie at the same position in top overall draft pick Cam Newton.

Game time is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. Arizona is a solid 7-point home favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with the total at 37.

Kolb was supposed to be the signal caller of the future for the Eagles before he got hurt in last year’s season opener against Green Bay. He initially left that game with a jaw injury and later returned only to get knocked out again, giving way to Michael Vick, and the rest is history.

The Cardinals gave up starting cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second-round pick to land Kolb and then inked him to a new five-year, $63 million contract extension before re-signing All-Pro wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald to an eight-year deal that could be worth as much as $120 million.

Arizona’s brass invested in both players to show they are serious about winning the NFC West for the third time in four seasons after last year’s disappointing 5-11 campaign. The team had won back-to-back division titles and gone to the Super Bowl XLIV in 2008 behind QB Kurt Warner, who retired prior to last season.

Carolina had an even worse year than the Cardinals in 2010 at 2-14 and cleared house in the offseason, choosing not to extend head coach John Fox and hiring Ron Rivera to replace him. Rivera previously served as defensive coordinator in Chicago and San Diego but will face most of his challenges on the offensive side of the ball in his first year.

The Panthers chose reigning Heisman Trophy winner Newton with the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft after he led Auburn to the national championship last year in his only season as a starter. Questionable character issues were not enough to deter them from selecting him, as his athleticism has drawn comparisons to Vick.

Newton did not play well in the preseason, as the team lost its last three games both straight up and against the spread, but he still secured the starting spot under center over second-year player Jimmy Clausen. He will have a number of offensive weapons though to help him out, most notably veteran wide receiver Steve Smith and one of the league’s best running back tandems in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Carolina has won seven of the last eight meetings with Arizona, but fans and bettors alike still remember the one loss that took place during the 2009 playoffs. The Panthers were 10-point home favorites and were blown out 33-13 during Arizona’s drive to Super Bowl XLIII.

The Cardinals have split the last four meetings against the spread since the Panthers covered the previous three in the series.

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Manning Out As Colts Take On Houston Texans

Originally a pick ’em, the Texans are now 9-point home favorites against the Colts.
NFL betting fans very well could be seeing a change of the guard in the AFC South, perhaps once and for all on Sunday afternoon, as the Houston Texans play host to the Indianapolis Colts. Week 1's kickoff from Reliant Stadium is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional TV coverage on CBS.

Hopes are high this year for the Texans, and many are getting on their bandwagon as the winners of the AFC South. Matt Schaub is still leading a potent offense that could border on picking up 6,500 yards this season, and he has his top target back, Andre Johnson, one of the best at his trade.

Running back Arian Foster was an unknown last year at this time, but it was in this game that he became a fantasy football legend and a new stalwart in the Houston offense. He rumbled for 231 yards on 33 carries and had three TDs in a Week 1 romp over the Colts en route to his league leading 1,616 rushing yards and 2,220 total yards from scrimmage in 2010.

Foster has been battling a hamstring injury, but at last report on Thursday night, Foster said that "all signs point towards playing" on Sunday.

The injury front isn't treating the Colts as nicely, for sure. By now you've surely heard that Peyton Manning, the face of this franchise, is going to miss this game with a neck injury that very well could keep him sidelined for a good portion of the season, if not the entire year. Top receivers Anthony Gonzalez and Austin Collie might not be available for Week 1 either.

That leaves Kerry Collins in charge of this suddenly makeshift offense. Collins had to think that his career was over when the Tennessee Titans let him go after last season, but Indy gave him the call a few weeks ago when Manning's injury status became in serious doubt.

The former Penn State Nittany Lion has split time with Vince Young in Tennessee the past three seasons. He does have over 40,000 passing yards and over 200 touchdown passes, something that not many can say, but he hasn't had a game with more than 300 passing yards since the end of the 2005 season.

Collins and his offense could have a tough time with a Houston defense that has a new look and a new attitude. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips brings the team a new 3-4 alignment, something that it hasn't played since head coach Dom Capers was fired and replaced by Gary Kubiak.

That means that Mario Williams will shift to outside linebacker, where he could have some problems adjusting to coverage schemes. Still, Williams is just one of the many former first or second round draft choices that this team has on the defensive side of the ball.

Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans only shared three games together last season, but they'll be the two inside linebackers in the 3-4, while rookie JJ Watt and second year man Connor Barwin both look to help out in the front seven as well against an Indianapolis offensive line with four new starters.

The Texans secondary will be helped with the additions of both Danieal Manning and Johnathan Joseph. Things can't be any worse than they were last year when this team ranked dead last in the league in pass defense.

NFL odds opened with this game a 'pick,' but the line has been rising ever since doubts about Manning's injury first started to crop up. Now, the Texans are laying nine points, among the biggest favorites on the Don Best odds screen for Week 1. The total has been set at 43 ½.

The Texans have only beaten the Colts twice in team history with both wins coming here at Reliant Stadium. However, they are 10-8 against the spread all-time games against their divisional foes.

'Over' bettors have been thrilled, going 10-2 in the last 12 games in this series, and the average total number of points in those games has been 55.3 PPG.

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San Diego Chargers Favored To Stop Vikings

The Vikings are 3-10 ATS the last 13 games they have been underdogs.
Two teams aiming to return to the NFL playoffs will open up the 2011 regular season against each other, as the Minnesota Vikings take on the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium.

The Vikings finished last year with a 6-10 record, while the Chargers ended things at 9-7.

Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on FOX. San Diego opened as 9 ½-point home favorites, but the spread has since been bet down a full-point while the total has remained steady at 41 ½.

Minnesota recorded a dominating 35-17 win as 7-point home underdogs in the last meeting between the two teams on Nov. 4, 2007, finishing the contest with a 528-229 total yardage advantage. It’s a game that Vikings fans will never forget, as star running back Adrian Peterson set a league record with 296 rushing yards on 30 carries, a big part of his 5,782-yard rushing total the last four seasons.

Veteran quarterback Donovan McNabb is now in Mineesota after leaving the nation’s capitol following a disappointing 2010 campaign, throwing for 14 scores and 15 interceptions. He will certainly benefit from having Peterson in the backfield, but many league insiders are wondering how much the 34-year-old has in the tank.

The Vikings have not fared well as underdogs, failing to cover 10 of their last 13 in the situation, while the ‘under’ is 7-6 in those contests.

San Diego has been victimized by slow starts over the years under head coach Norv Turner and failed to reach the postseason a year ago despite winning seven of its last nine games. It’s a problem that quarterback Philip Rivers hopes to solve in 2011.

The former NC State Wolfpack star set a career-high with 4,710 passing yards and threw 30 touchdowns last year, as the Chargers finished 2010 as the league’s top-ranked offensive unit.

Rivers still has plenty of weapons at his disposal, including tight end Antonio Gates and wide receiver Vincent Jackson. The duo creates mismatches against opposing defenses each and every week.

Despite its well-known problems of recent years, San Diego does own a 29-22 record when opening a season, including a 14-7 mark at home. The Chargers were handed a 21-14 defeat as 4-point road favorites in Week 1 of the 2010 season, only to bounce back with a resounding 38-13 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars at Qualcomm Stadium.

Bettors will find that the Bolts are 18-6 ATS as home favorites of 7½-10 points in their last 24 opportunities, while the 'under' has cashed in four of the last five games in that situation.

Weather forecasts suggest a beautiful day in the San Diego area for football fans, as game-time highs will be in the low-70s and sunny skies will persist throughout.

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Seahawks And 49ers Collide In San Francisco

The home team has won and covered the spread the last four time Seattle and San Fran played.
The defending NFC West Champion Seattle Seahawks head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in a battle for early position atop the division.

San Francisco is a 5 ½-point home favorite on the Don Best odds screen. Sunday’s game kicks off at 4:15 p.m. (ET) and will be televised in some areas on FOX.

Most agree that the NFC West was the worst division in the NFL last season with all four teams finishing with losing records. San Francisco entered the 2010 season as the favorite, but Seattle took the division crown with a 7-9 record.

In a division where eight or nine wins is usually enough, these division rivalry games are huge.

Over the last five years, this game has been very evenly matched, with both teams going 5-5 both straight up and against the spread against one another. Last season the teams exchanged blowouts, with Seattle winning 31-6 at home in Week 1, and San Francisco winning at home 40-21 in Week 14.

San Francisco hired Jim Harbaugh as the new head coach this offseason after Harbaugh built the Stanford Cardinal up to a level of national respectability in his four years there. A former quarterback himself, Harbaugh is considered a great QB coach that could help Alex Smith bring his game to the next level.

With the addition of Braylon Edwards and the Frank Gore contract situation sorted out, the 49ers hope to improve on an offense that held them back in 2010, finishing 24th in the NFL in total offense and scoring offense.

Seattle has gone from division champion to division long shot this offseason as current future odds project the Seahawks to finish behind St. Louis, San Francisco and Arizona. The Seahawks actually added some great players on offense, bringing in reliable receiving options in Sidney Rice and Zach Miller, and steady offensive lineman Robert Gallary.

The issue for Seattle is the quarterback position. Matt Hasselbeck was not brought back, and Tarvaris Jackson was signed to be start in his place. He has shown some brief flashes of brilliance over his five years in the league, but he’s spent most of his career as a backup and is a big question mark.

His backup, Charlie Whitehurst, has all of 99 career passing attempts under his belt. If Jackson struggles, Seattle doesn’t have a legitimate Plan B in place.

There are issues surrounding both quarterbacks, but San Francisco is the favorite likely due to home-field advantage and a seemingly superior defense, even with the offseason loss of Takeo Spikes. The home team has won and covered the spread in each of the last four meetings between these two teams.

The total for Sunday’s game is currently set at 37½.

Weather reports indicate a cloudy day with a slight chance of thunderstorms

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Coaching Changes

September 9, 2011

Every season, teams across the NFL make significant changes to their coaching staff. I spend a lot of time analyzing the coaches’ history in order to predict the net effect they will have on the organization. This year, I have re-doubled my efforts in this area as I believe any major coaching change will bring about some early season confusion. That is not to say that all of them will have problems early on, but rather that I believe the majority will face major challenges due to the shortened pre season schedule. I believe this to be especially true for teams that have made across the board changes, and where new defensive coordinators change the base defense (4-3 to 3-4 & vice versa.) Special consideration also has to be given to coaches that have little to no experience in the position they now hold as well as those coaches who have recently been coaching in other leagues (NCAA, UFL, etc)

If you read my article earlier this week then you know I am a firm believer in bundling similar plays in order to reduce the inherent risks associated with early season wagering. Betting against any one of these teams is certainly not a bad idea, but betting against a handful of them would increase your odds of coming out on top.

The three most important coaching positions are clearly the Head Coach, Offensive, and Defensive Coordinators. As such, I will breakdown a few key factors regarding these positions that you should consider when betting for or against these teams early on in the season.

Seattle Seahawks

New Offensive Coordinator: Darrell Bevell (NFL EXP: 11 & Prior Job: Vikings OC 2006-2010)

Darrell Bevell is entering his first season as offensive coordinator for Seattle. There are a few positive things worth mentioning here as opposed to a lot of the other teams on this list. First of all, he is leaving the stacked NFC North to compete in the infamously poor NFC West. He is also joining the team that won the NFC West title as well as a playoff game against a heavily favored opponent (+10.) So, he is certainly not starting off in a hole. He has also been an offensive coordinator in the North for the past 5 years, and he had a winning record in all but his first and last season. He also took the NFC North crown for two consecutive years. Another uniquely positive aspect of this which should ease the transition is the fact that he brought along a QB and an elite receiver, both of which he has worked with since their rookie years.

NET EFFECT: Positive

St. Louis Rams

New Offensive Coordinator: Josh McDaniels (NFL EXP: 10 & Prior Job: Broncos HC 2009-2010 & Patriots OC 2006-2008)

Josh McDaniels has taken a step backward after losing his head coaching job in Denver, but this is the position that fits him best in my opinion. As a head coach, he faced challenges that he was unable to overcome. I believe that this will be a good move in the long run for him as well as the organization. Keep in mind that it was under his direction that the Patriots became the most prolific offense in NFL history. He was even able to make things work when Matt Cassell took over for an injured Brady in 2008. They did not make the postseason, but an 11-5 record will normally do the trick in the NFL. He has worked with an elite quarterback, and helped to develop Matt Cassel from the role of a backup to an eventual franchise quarterback in the league. Even Kyle Orton had his best seasons as a professional under his direction in Denver. I believe that he will have a positive impact on the organization as a whole and on Sam Bradford especially.

NET EFFECT: Positive

Arizona Cardinals

New Defensive Coordinator: Ray Horton (NFL EXP: 17 & Prior Job: Steelers Asst/Dbacks coach)

Keeping the 3-4

Let’s face it. When you rank 30th in points allowed per game and 29th in yards allowed per game there is basically nowhere else to go but up. Ray Horton has worked with what is arguably the greatest defensive minded organization in the history of this league. He has also worked closely with one of the all time great defensive coordinators in Dick LeBeau. Now, this is a big jump he is making from a DBacks coach to the defensive coordinator of a struggling defense. So I do not expect any miraculous turnaround from last season, but as I said in the beginning there is nowhere to go but up!

NET EFFECT: Positive

San Francisco 49ers

New Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (NFL EXP: 2 & Prior Job: NCAA HC 2004-2010, San Diego ’04-’06 & Stanford ’07-’10)

New Offensive Coordinator: Greg Roman (NFL EXP: 13 & Prior Job: Stanford Assistant)

New Defensive Coordinator: Vince Fangio (NFL EXP: 14 & Prior Job: Stanford Defensive Coordinator)

NEW BASE DEFENSE: 3-4 in 2011 from a 4-3 in 2010

The 49ers have lacked success over the past few years, and the owners seem more than willing to blame coaches for their issues. I personally believe the players on the field have earned their 33-47 (41.25%) record over the past 5 seasons, but I do not own an NFL team. Anyway, they have decided to make a change at the top coaching spot, and along with it the entire coaching staff. Again! Alex Smith is used to this by now as this is his 7th different offensive coordinator in as many seasons. On the other side of the ball, the defense is in an even tougher spot as they are bringing on a new coordinator who is also changing the base defense. The only bright spot in this entire move is that they are still playing in the NFC West so just about anything can happen. However, I have a very hard time believing that anything good can come from all of this chaos (especially over the first few weeks.)

NET EFFECT: Negative

Carolina Panthers

New Head Coach: Ron Rivera (NFL EXP: 15 & Prior Job: Chargers DC 2008-2010)

New Offensive Coordinator: Bob Chudzinski (NFL EXP: 6 & Prior Job: Chargers TE Coach 2009-2010)

New Defensive Coordinator: Sean McDermott (NFL EXP: 12 & Prior Job: Eagles DC 2009-2010)

Keeping the 4-3

Ron Rivera had his best season as a DC in 2010 for the San Diego Chargers. They were a top 10 defense in several important categories, including the fewest total yards allowed in the league. However, what is more important than his success with a perennial Super Bowl favorite is that he will be taking on a much different role in Carolina as well as a vastly inferior team (2-14 in 2010.) His offensive coordinator assumed the same role for the Browns a few years ago, but his most recent coaching experience is as a tight end coach in San Diego. He has enough on his plate taking on the most important coaching position for the most ineffective offense from 2010. In addition to that, he is tasked with developing a rookie quarterback who will get the nod in week 1. On the other side, Sean McDermott is coming in after having proven himself incapable of filling the shoes of the legendary Jim Johnson. Last season, his defense allowed franchise high 31 touchdown passes while letting up at least 24 points in 11 of their 16 games. He is taking over last year’s 26th ranked scoring defense which will in all likelihood be on the field for a lot of time again this season.

My analysis of this coaching change is a little different than most because the Panthers were so atrocious last year. Despite the fact that all of these changes should cause some headaches for the Panthers this season, they will be hard pressed to underperform when compared to last season. This is clearly a rebuilding year for the Panthers, and for them a 3 win season is a step in the right direction. So, by default I have to say that all of these changes amount to a net positive.

NET EFFECT: Positive

Cincinnati Bengals

New Offensive Coordinator: Jay Gruden (NFL EXP: 7 & Prior Job: UFL HC)

Jay Gruden is coming into this role with an NFL resume that includes working for his brother as an offensive assistant for 7 years. Since then, he has been a head coach or offensive coordinator for such well known teams as the Orlando Predators and Florida Tuskers. Nonetheless, he has experience with designing & running an offense. Still, he is coming into a situation that is less than ideal. The most important player on their offense has been Carson Palmer who was forced into retirement this offseason. So, now he is also tasked with developing a rookie QB taking over an offense which ranked in the bottom 10 in total points (with a solid veteran QB presence.) What is even more troubling for him is that he is in the AFC North. It is difficult to see how he can forge a reputation in the NFL given this situation.

NET EFFECT: Negative

Cleveland Browns

New Head Coach & OC: Pat Shurmur (NFL EXP: 12 & Prior Job: Rams OC 2009-2010)

New Defensive Coordinator: Dick Jauron (NFL EXP: 26 & Prior Job: Eagles DBacks 2010 Bills Head Coach 2006-2009)

NEW BASE DEFENSE: 4-3 2011 from a 3-4 in 2010

Shurmur and Jauron are taking over a team which had shown signs of life last season. They have a quarterback who can lead the team and they both boast impressive resumes in the league. Shurmur has been coaching in the league since 1999, and his defensive colleague has been in the league since 1985. Experience on the coaching staff can only take you so far, and that is especially true in the AFC North where the top two teams are head and shoulders above the others. However, considering the fact that the Browns are a team trying to claw their way out of the bottom of the barrel I view this as a positive move for the organization. They will produce some unexpected wins this season, just like last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they made some progress toward that prized .500 season this year.

NET EFFECT: Positive

Dallas Cowboys

New Defensive Coordinator: Rob Ryan (NFL EXP: 13 & Prior Job: Browns DC 2009-2010)

Keeping the 3-4

After a tough start to his career, Rob Ryan has proven that he can take an average defensive unit and produce some solid results. Now, he has an opportunity to work with a quality roster. He isn’t changing the base defense, and he is going to find ways to use each player to their maximum potential. Just like his brother, he has a way of getting his players to exceed expectations, and I am very excited to see what he can do with a team that is notorious for coming up short.

NET EFFECT: Positive

Denver Broncos

New Head Coach: John Fox (NFL EXP: 22 & Prior Job: Panthers HC 2002-2010)

New Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Allen (NFL EXP: 9 & Prior Job: Saints D Line/DBacks)

NEW BASE DEFENSE: 4-3 in 2011 from a 3-4 in 2010

I was surprised by their midseason move with Josh McDaniels last year, but this is a results driven league so I understood it. In the long run, things have worked out even though I disagree with the path. John Fox is a top tier coach in this league with a great resume, and I am confident he will help the Broncos offense find more balance. This is clearly a positive move for the top spot. On defense, things are slightly more complicated but I also believe the changes amount to a net positive. He is changing the base defense, but this is also an entirely new defensive unit. There are 0 returning week 1 starters on the D-Line this year, and only 1 from the LB corp. Dumervil is also coming back, but he is switching to a down end spot (which should suit him well.) Between Fox and Allen I believe the defense as a whole will be far more aggressive than last season.

NET EFFECT: Positive

Houston Texans

New Defensive Coordinator: Wade Phillips (NFL EXP: 35 & Prior Job: Cowboys HC 2007 – 2010 & DC ’09-‘10)

NEW BASE DEFENSE: 3-4 in 2011 from a 4-3 in 2010

Say what you will about Wade Phillips’ in Dallas, but there is no way to discredit this man’s resume. He has been serving in various defensive and head coaching capacities since 1976, and for the 3 years prior to that he was in the same line of work at the college level. He is a defensive guru and he is taking over a team which is consistently in the bottom 5 of the league. Here are some 2010 rankings: Passing Yards Allowed (32nd) Total yards allowed (30th) Total points allowed (29th)

Clearly, there is literally nowhere to go but up in at least one defensive category. Even if they were an average team, I still believe that there would be a marked improvement in their production under Wade Phillips.

NET EFFECT: Positive

Miami Dolphins

New Offensive Coordinator: Brian Daboll (NFL EXP: 11 & Prior Job: Browns OC 2009-2010)

Daboll has worked in various NFL offensive positions since 2000, but his first shot as an OC was unproductive to say the least (the Browns were 10-22 over his time there.) One could argue that his production was a function of the assets he had to work with. I would agree, but also point out that he is joining the Dolphins. They have a solid offensive roster, but there is a glaring hole under center. It is so bad that fans were screaming for Kyle Orton at practice! Their offensive line will allow them to be a run first offense which suits Daboll & Sporano alike, but the only chance he has at true success lies with Chad Henne.

NET EFFECT: None

Minnesota Vikings

New Offensive Coordinator: Bill Musgrave (NFL EXP: 12 & Prior Job: Falcons Asst. Coach/QB Coach)

After losing Darrell Bevell to the Seahawks, the Vikings offense is in an unfamiliar spot. Their offense had been under his and Childress’ direction since 2006, but after an incredibly disappointing 2010 season it was time for a change. In addition to losing their OC, they also lost their QB & #1 receiver in Jackson and Rice. They may have very well upgraded at the QB position, but there is no way that they can make up for the loss of a playmaker like Rice. Bill Musgrave has his work cut out for him getting a brand new QB to gel with his receivers. Not to mention getting him familiar with a much different offense than he just learned in Washington. The only good thing for both Musgrave and Mcnabb is that they can rely on their workhorse (Peterson) to keep the offense moving in the right direction.

NET EFFECT: Negative

Oakland Raiders

New Head Coach: Hue Jackson (NFL EXP: 10 & Prior Job: Raiders OC)

New Offensive Coordinator: Al Saunders (NFL EXP: 28 & Prior Job: Ravens Offensive Consultant)

The only questions I would ask Hue Jackson is why he even brought Al Saunders onto the team. Don’t get me wrong, Saunders is a top tier OC in the league. That is a fact. However, the team showed a spark last season under his direction, and I would expect him to want to lead as much of the team as possible. They hit an 8-8 record, which is a pretty big deal in Oakland right now, and swept the perennial divisional champions for the first time in nearly a decade. Regardless, I believe it absolutely helps to have somebody with the experience and knowledge of Al Saunders on the staff. I was just surprised that he didn’t choose to fill both roles for the team this year.

NET EFFECT: Positive

Disclaimer: My assessment is that this is a net positive, but that in no way means that I think they are going to win more games this year. Don’t bet NFL futures!

San Diego Chargers

New Defensive Coordinator: Greg Manusky (NFL EXP: 10 & Prior Job: 49’ers DC 2007-2010)

Keeping the 3-4

The Chargers lost an asset when Rivera took the HC job in Carolina. However, they are returning every single starter on the D-line and defensive backfield. Their LB corp has undergone some changes, but they have upgraded overall. Remember, this is the same group that was ranked first in both total & passing yards allowed, and 4th in rush yards allowed. Unlike most of the teams I covered here I believe that the Chargers have nowhere to go but down when compared to that. Even though they are a truly skilled group, I believe that exchanging Rivera for Manusky is a losing proposition for the Chargers, and I have to rate it accordingly.


NET EFFECT: Negative

Tennessee Titans

New Head Coach & OC: Mike Munchak (NFL EXP: 17 Yrs & Titans O-Line)

New Defensive Coordinator: Jerry Gray (NFL EXP: 14 Yrs. & Prior Job: Seahawks D-Backs)

Keeping the 4-3

The Titans shopped in house to unseat the longest tenured coach in the NFL. Munchak was a great choice as he has been with the Titans since they were the Oilers in ’94. He has also been in the same position (O-Line Coach) since ’97. Regardless of how you try to ease this transition it is going to be a rocky road. At the very least they are returning all of their offensive line (which Munchak built.) They are missing a few of their skill players from last year, but the offense will continue to revolve around Chris Johnson just as Fischer had it. On the other side, Jerry Gray has a much harder job to do. They are returning just 5 of their 11 starters from week 1 last year, and 4 of those players are from the defensive backfield. He is keeping the same base defense, but I don’t foresee any positive gains for the Titans this season.

NET EFFECT: Negative

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Trends

September 10, 2011


NFL ATS PLAY ON TREND:


The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS (5.2 ppg) since November 18, 2001 as a home favorite when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks.
NFL ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:


The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since September 17, 2006 during September at home.
NFL OU TREND OF THE WEEK:


The Bears are 0-7 OU (-11.2 ppg) since September 12, 2004 in their season opener.
NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:


The Chiefs are 0-11 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since 1989 when facing a non-divisional opponent that is seeking revenge for a multiple-point road loss last season.

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Trending: NFL Week 1 Trends

While NFL coaches and players lost valuable practice time over the offseason, we at ******* did not rest. With the opening Sunday of the regular season quickly approaching, we present you a list of 20 powerful trends from season-opening games over the last 10-plus seasons.
1. In games where there is a road favorite, UNDER the total has thrived, going 41-18 (70%) since ’00 in Week 1.
Plays for '11: UNDER the Total in Philadelphia at St. Louis (44), New England at Miami (45.5), N.Y. Giants at Washington (38), Atlanta at Chicago (40.5)

2. Home Favorites that had a worse SU record than their opponent the prior year are 24-7 ATS (77%) in Week 1 since ’01. This includes Green Bay’s win on Thursday.
Plays for '11: Houston (vs. IND), San Francisco (vs. SEA), Denver (vs. OAK)

3. Opening week Home Favorites facing an opponent who was .500 or better last season have converted on 36 of their last 52 opportunities, for 69%. This includes Green Bay’s win on Thursday.
Plays for '11: Baltimore (vs. PIT), Houston (vs. IND)

4. In Non-Divisional Conference games with Road Favorites, the UNDER is on a 19-5 (79%) run in Week 1 of the NFL season.
Plays for '11: UNDER the Total in Atlanta at Chicago (40.5), Philadelphia at St. Louis (44)

5. Road Underdogs in Week 1 that were 6-10 SU or worse the prior season boast an impressive 29-16-2 ATS (64%) record since ’00.
Plays for '11: Detroit (at TB), Buffalo (at KC), Cincinnati (at CLE), Tennessee (at JAC), Carolina (at ARI), Minnesota (at SD), Dallas (at NYJ)

6. In games with extremely high totals, or those at 45.5 or more, the UNDER is an astonishing 22-8 (73%) since ’01. This includes the Over occurring for New Orleans/Green Bay on Thursday.
Play for '11: UNDER the Total in New England at Miami (45.5)

7. Divisional favorites of 3 points or less boast an incredible record 16-5 SU & 15-5-1 ATS (75%) since 2000 on kickoff weekend.
Plays for '11: Baltimore (-1.5 vs. PIT), Jacksonville (-2 vs. TEN), N.Y. Giants (-3 at WSH), Denver (-3 vs. OAK)

8. The public has had a good handle on totals. When they have moved the total more than 2 points in Week 1 games since 2000, they have been correct on 23 of 36 occasions (64%).

9. Don’t read into Week 1 line moves too much as whole. In games this decade where the public has moved the line one way or another, the team they are favoring is just 65-69-1 ATS (49%), a modest loss. However, when the public is favoring a HOME team to where the line moves in their favor by two or more points, that team is 11-2 SU & 11-1-1 ATS (92%).

10. All Favorites of exactly 3 points boast a 34-11 SU & 25-13 ATS (66%) mark in Week 1 since 2000.
Plays for '11: N.Y. Giants (-3 at WSH), Denver (vs. OAK)

11. When a Home team that didn’t make the playoffs the prior year is favored over a Road team that did in Week 1, that host club is on an 11-3 SU & 10-3-1 ATS (77%) run.
Potential Plays for '11: Houston (-8.5 vs. IND), San Francisco (-5.5 vs SEA)

12. There has also been a significant lean to UNDER the total in games where the home team is favored by 4 points or more, 25-15 (63%) since ’05. This includes the Over occurring for New Orleans/Green Bay on Thursday.
Plays for '11: Buffalo at Kansas City, Indianapolis at Houston, Cincinnati at Cleveland, Carolina at Arizona, Seattle at San Francisco, Minnesota at San Diego, Dallas at N.Y. Jets

13. Road underdogs of 3½ points or more in divisional games of the NFL’s opening week are 7-24 SU but 19-12 ATS (61%) since 2000.
Plays for '11: Indianapolis (+8.5 at HOU), Cincinnati (+6.5 at CLE), Seattle (+5.5 at SF)

14. When two winning teams from the prior year have played in Week 1, UNDER the total has gone 21-11 (66%) since ’03. This includes the Over occurring for New Orleans/Green Bay on Thursday.
Plays for '11: UNDER the Total in Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Atlanta at Chicago

15. When the difference in the teams’ PPG Margin from the prior year is 10.0 or greater, the team with the worse differential owns a 23-13 ATS (64%) record in Week 1 since 2001.
Plays for '11: Minnesota (+8.5 at SD), Miami (+6.5 at NE), Denver (-3 vs. OAK)

16. Home Favorites of -6 to -9.5 own an impressive 29-5 SU & 20-14 ATS (59%) in the opening week of the NFL season this decade.
Potential Plays for '11: Houston (-8.5 vs. IND), Cleveland (-6.5 vs. CIN), Arizona (-6.5 vs. CAR), San Diego (-8.5 vs. MIN)

17. Home Favorites of less than a field goal have been a solid bet in Week 1, going 10-5 SU & ATS (67%) since 2001.
Potential Plays for '11: Baltimore (-1.5 vs. PIT), Tampa Bay (-1.5 vs. DET), Jacksonville (-2 vs. TEN), Denver (-3 vs. OAK)

18. More than 59% of the Week 1 NFL games since ’00 have gone UNDER the total. If you’re looking for total edges beyond that, in games with totals of 36 or less, the UNDER is 16-8 (67%) since ‘01.
Plays for '11: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (36), Cincinnati at Cleveland (35.5)

19. Double-digit Underdogs in Week 1 of the NFL season are 3-8 SU & 8-3 ATS (73%) since ’00.
Plays for '11: NONE

20. Road Favorites in NFL Week 1 facing a team that was .500 or better last season are on a 15-10 ATS (60%) run.
Play for '11: Atlanta (-2 at CHI)