The Bum's NFL Week # 1 Best Bets !

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Analyzing Week 1 Numbers

September 3, 2011

Every season I stress to my clients the importance of patience over the first few weeks of the season. Sports betting offers us a unique advantage over the house only because we are able to consider a wide variety of variables before making a decision. Since we enter the season with nothing but speculation we are actually getting our money in at the same disadvantage as any bettor in the casino. Considering the nature of this offseason we can only hope to be placing a week 1 bet with the same confidence as a decent video poker player.

So this year I am going to make the same plea with everybody, and just like every season I will hear stories of my clients going in with guns blazing. Being aware of this, I should at least offer you some advice that could help even the playing field. So this will be part 1 of a group of articles that will hopefully accomplish just that.

In my opinion, the most important aspect of early season wagering is to bundle similar games together. Since we are knowingly placing wagers at a disadvantage, we have to establish a way to spread that risk around. One of the best ways to achieve this goal is by selecting one or two groups of picks that fit certain criteria.

For example, if you were to select every Week 1 underdog of 7 or more points from 1997 to 2009 you would have won nearly 66% of your games with 25 wins and 13 losses.

That is a good statistical example that I am sure you are familiar with, but it isn't as useful when the Week 1 board doesn't feature enough big point-spread underdogs. If we take a look at the opposite side of the spectrum we find a similar pattern which doesn't get nearly as much recognition.

With about a month to go until kickoff, we have four games that are currently listed at 2 ½-points or less, and a few others that are right on the border. I went back to take a look at what happens when there are four or more games listed under 2 ½-points in Week 1. Since 1997 this has occurred five times, and the favorite has covered 60% of those games (12-8). If you were to have bet every favorite in each one of those five weeks then you would have had three winning weeks, one losing week, and broken even once.

Since this statistic is only made up of 20 games I wanted to expand the search. If we look at only those first weeks where there have been at least 2 such point spreads on the board, then we end up with 36 results. By betting the favorite in each of those 36 games you would have ended up with the same exact win rate of 60% (21-14-1.)

Underdogs getting seven or more in Week 1

Carolina (+7) at Arizona
Minnesota (+9) at San Diego
Miami (+7) vs. New England

Games with point-spreads of 2 ½-points or less

Baltimore (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay (-2) vs. Detroit
Atlanta (-2.5) at Chicago

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Packers Host Saints In NFL Season Opener

If history is any indication, the New Orleans Saints are in big trouble for the NFL season opener Thursday night at the defending champion Green Bay Packers. The Don Best odds screen has Green Bay as 4-point favorites with an NFL betting total of 47-points. NBC will have the kickoff at 8:30 p.m. (ET) from historic Lambeau Field.

The 47-point total is the highest of Week 1. The average total for the 16 opening week games is 40.5 compared to 41.6 last year. Oddsmakers are predicting less scoring with the lockout affecting the offenses more than the defenses.

The defending Super Bowl champion has hosted the Thursday night opener every year since 2004. There has been no hangover with a 7-0 straight up and 5-1-1 against the spread mark. Last year, New Orleans beat Minnesota 14-9 as 4 ½-point favorites.

The Saints went 11-5 SU and 7-9 ATS overall in the regular season last year. They then had a big upset loss at Seattle in the wild-card round, losing 41-36 as 9 ½-point favorites.

New Orleans’ offense saw both its total yards (403.8 to 372.5 YPG) and points (31.9 to 24 PPG) decrease from 2009 to last year. The running game was the biggest culprit from 131.6 YPG to 94.9 YPG.

Injuries played a part in the rushing decline, but the Saints were also looking for a ‘bell cow’ to be the main guy. They traded for an additional first-round pick and selected 2009 Heisman winner Mark Ingram from Alabama. He’ll likely be the starter and backed up by Pierre Thomas. Reggie Bush (traded to Miami) and Chris Ivory (PUP list) are no longer options.

The Saints will still be led by quarterback Drew Brees. He may be unhappy about his current contract negotiations, but he’s great at spreading the ball around, with nine guys having at least 29 receptions last year. Brees finished third in the league in passing yards (4,620), although he did have a career-high 22 picks.

New Orleans’ defense is still smarting after allowing 415 total yards to Seattle in the playoff loss. The ‘D’ feasted on somewhat easier competition the first nine regular season games (16.8 PPG). The last seven (22.3 PPG) heading into the playoffs turned out to be an ominous sign. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams looks for a strong start this year.

The Packers (14-6 SU, 13-7 ATS) ended last year at 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. They seemed to get stronger with each playoff game, road wins and ‘covers’ at Philadelphia (21-16), Atlanta (48-21) and Chicago (21-14). They were playing so well that they were actually 3-point favorites over Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl (31-25 final).

Aaron Rodgers is arguably the NFL’s best quarterback and could be the next few years with injuries and age affecting Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Greg Jennings (1,265 yards) is back as the top receiver and Rodgers should improve on his 3,922 passing yards.

The running game gets Ryan Grant back after missing almost all of last year with injury. He rushed for 1,253 yards in 2009, but likely won’t get near that with James Starks proven to be a good option down the stretch last year as a rookie.

The defense is an aggressive 3-4 under coordinator Dom Capers and led by superstar pass rusher Clay Matthews. Only Pittsburgh (15 PPG) surrendered less points than the Pack (14.5 PPG) in the regular season. Capers helped dial up the defense in the playoffs too, creating 11 turnovers in the four games, eight interceptions.

The Saints went 6-3 SU, but 3-6 ATS on the road last year (including the playoffs). The ‘over’ was 4-1 in their last five road games, allowing a big 28.4 PPG.

Green Bay was 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home last year. The ‘over’ was 4-1 in the last five there, scoring a big 32.4 PPG.

These teams haven’t played each other since 2008. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five, with the ‘over’ 5-0 in that span.

Jennings (knee) is probable for Green Bay on the Don Best injury report. Fellow receiver James Jones (knee) is questionable. New Orleans defensive end Will Smith is suspended for the first two games. Kicker Garrett Hartley (hip) is out and will be replaced by veteran John Kasey.

Weather is expected to be clear and very nice, in the 60s.

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The Best of the NFL

Monday, September 05, 2011

The pro football season kicks off this week when the Saints travel to the defending champion Packers, a battle of the last two champs. Despite the fact that the NFC has won two in a row, the AFC has won 9 of the last 14 Super Bowls. Here is a look at some of the best of the NFL.

NY Jets: The Jets do a lot of talking, but when are they going to get to their first Super Bowl since 1969? The bombast of sexy Rexy Ryan and the influx of talent (and characters) have made this another fascinating team to watch. On the plus side, they had the No. 3 defense in the NFL, the No. 4 ground attack and add WR Plaxico Burress. On the cautious side, QB Mark Sanchez left school early and is only in his third year. He had a poor rookie campaign with 12 TDs and 20 interceptions and improved to 17 TDs, 13 picks last season in a run-first offense.

There are 10 returning starters on defense, nine of whom have two years experience in Ryan's system. Outside linebacker Calvin Pace will be in the opening day lineup. Pace, their best pass rusher, missed the first month of the 2009 and 2010 seasons because of a league suspension and a broken foot. "Will we end up being the best defense in football? I think so," the Jets' coach said last week. Despite what you might think, the Jets were 12-4 over the total last regular season.

Cowboys: A bounce back year after a train wreck in 2010? Who wouldn't want all the talent on this team? 31-year old QB Tony Romo was lost with an injury which wrecked their season, but in 2009 he cut down his turnovers with 4,483 yards, 26 TDs and 9 picks. New Coach Jason Garrett has replaced laid back Wade Phillips and brought a tougher edge to training camp. He didn't hesitate to cut flaky WR Roy Williams, sending a message to many players.

The ground game is deep with Felix Jones and WR Dez Bryant is in his second season. Anthony Spencer and Demarcus Ware (15.5 sacks) lead a dynamite defense that gets after quarterbacks. So when are they going to win a big playoff game? That's the question Jerry Jones must be wondering, adding some pressure on the new coach. The Cowboys bring a 12-1 run over the total into the new season.

Saints: Remember us? We were champs two years ago! The rules changes the NFL made over the last seven years was designed to help offenses, so it's no surprise that the Saints have benefitted with a great QB, fast wide outs and a wide-open spread offense. The Saints are again loaded on offense, led by QB Drew Brees (33 TDs, 22 INTs) and a revamped backfield that adds Darren Sproles and rookie first round pick RB Mark Ingram. The defense is attacking and aggressive under fiery Greg Robinson and 2-1 SU/ATS their last three times as a dog.

Steelers: Teams that lose the Super Bowl have a recent history of not even making the playoffs the next season, but that's a trend Pittsburgh is likely to defy. The Steelers have exceptional balance on offense, 14th in passing yards last season, 11th in rushing behind QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 TDs, 5 INTs), RB Rashard Mendenhall (1,273 yards), WRs Mike Wallace and Hines Ward, plus TE Heath Miller.

The defense was No. 2 in the NFL in yards and tops in points, surrendering just 14.5 ppg. Their linebacker depth is outstanding as they get after the QB with their zone blitz schemes. They are on an 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS run on the road and there is plenty of talent for this team to return to the postseason.

Patriots: Bill Belichick loaded up with defense this offseason, bring in veterans to help the D-line in Albert Haynesworth, Andre Carter and Mark Anderson. That's a plus as this defense was leaky, with no pass rush and a suspect young secondary that was the worst in the NFL on third down. The offense gives the coach nothing to worry about behind QB Tom Brady (3,900 yards, 36 TDs, 4 picks) and adds WR Chad Ochocinco and first round pick OT Nate Solder (Colorado). Re-signing Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins was a huge move, as well, but their success comes down to the new-look defense.

Packers: Green Bay may have sneaked into the playoffs last season, but it was no fluke they won the Super Bowl. They were a preseason favorite to be one of the top teams and struggled in midseason only because of a rash of injuries. Despite those setbacks and without much of a running game, the Packer depth was outstanding, finishing 9th in yards offensively and 5th in total defense.

QB Aaron Rodgers (28 TDs, 11 INTs, 3,922 yards) leads this high-octane passing attack while talented defensive coordinator Dom Capers mixes game plans up and loves to bring the heat on opposing quarterbacks. They are the NFC favorites in Las Vegas, but will carry the bulls-eye burden of defending champs.

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NFL Notebook - Week 1

September 6, 2011

Welcome to my Week 1 NFL Notebook, a combination of notes, information, vents and opinions.

Let's begin with the Pittsburgh-Baltimore matchup, perhaps the fiercest of any rivalry in pro football. Teaser players may want to note that in the three-year Ravens coaching era of John Harbaugh no game in this rivalry has been decided by more than nine points with six of the last eight being decided by four or less.

The season, of course, begins Thursday with Green Bay hosting New Orleans. The oddsmakers opened this total too low at 46. The line has climbed to 47 and could get up and above 48 by kickoff with anticipated public money being on the over.

Still, the house may get the last laugh. The Saints aren't going to be passing nearly as much this season. They want to be more balanced and will be after trading up in the first round to get running back Mark Ingram out of Alabama. Also, neither team figures to be starting in good field position with kickoffs coming from the 35-yard line rather than the 30.

One of the biggest line moves has been on Cleveland. The Browns opened minus three hosting Cincinnati. The line has now reached 6 1/2. The Browns should be improved after consecutive 5-11 seasons under head coach Eric Mangini.

Speaking of Mangini, he'll be an analyst this season for ESPN. That's terrible. Mangini was a media nightmare when he was coaching. He not only never said anything worthwhile but was downright deceptive. He was one of the most boring interviews even by coach-speak standards. ESPN couldn't find anybody more worthy? Heck, bring back Dennis Miller to football. At least he's funny and honest.

Of course the steam on the Bengals-Browns game isn't because of Cleveland's perceived improvement. It's strictly fade material on the Bengals. The MGM may have set the worst regular-season over/under NFL total ever when they opened the Bengals' win total at 7 1/2. The Bengals' win total now is as low as five. This has to be the first time there has been a 2 1/2-game move on an NFL regular season win total.

Congratulations to those Vegas sharps who staked out an early position on the Colts-Texans game by getting down on Houston at less than a field goal. As one of them explained to me, "I thought I had nothing to lose because if Peyton Manning were to play, the Texans still could win. And if Manning were to miss the game, I would by far be getting the best of the line."

That certainly is true. Manning is expected to be sidelined and the Texans currently are nine-point favorites because of that.

Another Vegas sharp is trying to sell me on playing under in the Cowboys-Jets game if the number is less than 41. One of his main selling points is the expected defensive chess match between twin brothers Rex Ryan of the Jets and Rob Ryan, the new defensive coordinator for Dallas.

I pointed out that the two Ryans went at each other last year when Rob was defensive coordinator of the Browns. The Jets won 26-20 and the total went over the posted line of 37. Plus, it could take Rob Ryan time to straighten out Dallas' defense since he's changing systems, has weak safeties and had far less time to work out the kinks and implement things because of the lockout.

Detroit is getting a lot of love. The Lions certainly could be explosive if Matthew Stafford can ever stay healthy. The Lions open on the road against Tampa Bay where they snapped their 27-game road losing streak last year. The Buccaneers' respectable secondary could be vulnerable to Stafford if cornerback Aqib Talib can't play due to a hamstring strain that kept him out of preseason. It's an injury to monitor.

I was at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas this past weekend involved in several high-stakes fantasy football drafts sponsored by the National Fantasy Football Championship. Most of the owners competing were sharp, but there were several clueless ones who in poker terms would be called "Dead Money." These were the ones taking New Orleans kicker Garrett Hartley, who could be out as long as 10 weeks with a hip injury, Jacksonville backup running back Rashard Jennings, who also is injured and out for the season and taking fad picks like Ben Tate and Daniel Thomas way too high. One owner even took wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald with the No. 2 overall pick.

Glad to see more places putting out NFL regular season player propositions. The Caesars Palace properties are taking action on passing yards, rushing yards and receiving yards.

My choice for total passing yards is Matt Ryan at 12/1 (Bet $100 to win $1,200). The Falcons are going to be passing a lot more this season making Ryan, not Michael Turner, their offensive cornerstone. Ryan not only has Roddy White to throw to, but also Julio Jones, underrated Harry Douglas (my fantasy sleeper pick) and future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez.

I like Chris Johnson at 8/1 for most rushing yards. Johnson and Adrian Peterson, who is 4/1, are the two best running backs in the NFL especially with Arian Foster slowed by a hamstring injury. A decent middle-shot is Ray Rice at 15/1. The Ravens picked up maybe the best blocking fullback in the league, Vonta Leach, and should give Rice a heavy dose of carries.

As for No. 1 in receiving yards, I'll take a shot with San Diego's Vincent Jackson at 12/1.

In closing, just want to say it's great to be back with ********** after being exclusive to another company for the past two years. I'm proud of my relationship with VI, which goes back to when the company began in the mid-nineties and am proud of my having turned a profit for my football customers in 17 of the last 18 years, including last year when I went 10-1 on my highest-rated plays.

Best of luck to everyone and looking forward to another winning season.

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Las Vegas NFL Notes

September 6, 2011

We’ve all been analyzing Week 1 NFL lines posted at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book since April, awaiting for this weekend to finally come and now it’s finally here. The thought of a lockout is a distant memory and while a few have already made their wagers, this week is when the masses will come out to play. It will be like throwing a steak to a starved stray dog.

Visitors will be flying in from all over the country to be a part of the excitement that only a Las Vegas sports book can offer on any Sunday during the football season. Locals begin to alter their normal spring and summer Sunday routines, like going to church or doing yard work earlier to accommodate the Sunday games and watch their action unfold.

The top story of the weekend is whether or not Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning will start Sunday at Houston. Based on the current line of Houston minus-7, it appears the sports books don’t think he will despite no confirmation from the Colts. In the Hilton’s April opening line, the Colts were one-point favorites in this one. There is no player in the NFL -- maybe NFL history -- that has been worth 8 points.

But with Manning, the move is easily justified. He’s everything to that franchise. He’s kept a marginal team in contention to the highest levels almost single handedly the last few seasons.

When Manning is officially ruled out, the starting job will be given to newly acquired veteran Kerry Collins. The Colts never play well in the preseason and part of that is because of Manning’s limited playing time. This year was no different as they went 1-3 and looked awful offensively in each contest. This would be the first regular season start Manning has missed during his entire 14-year career.

One of the other big disparities from the early April line was how far the Bears have fallen out of favor with the bettors. They opened up as one-point home favorites against the Falcons and coming into this weekend, the Falcons are now three-point favorites.

The Cardinals also got a four-point boost with the signing of Kevin Kolb. They opened as three-point favorites against the Panthers and are now laying seven. Arizona still has plenty of issues on defense, but after getting a glimpse of Larry Fitzgerald blossom in the preseason with Kolb slinging it to him relentlessly, they look like they’re going to be one of the more entertaining teams in the league.

The Lions have been respected by many to contend for a playoff spot and that respect is showing through the bet windows as the Buccaneers have dropped from three-point home favorites to 1 ½-point favorites. The Lions defensive line is going to beat up a lot of opposing quarterbacks this season.

We also get to see how the super-Eagles mesh for four quarters as five-point road favorites at St. Louis. The Rams are an interesting team to look at early on because second-year quarterback Sam Bradford will have a pretty good wide-receiver corps for the first time.

But the public is going to be all over the Eagles. The four-team parlay from the public that will destroy the sports books if it comes in will be the Eagles, Patriots (-7 at Miami), Giants (-3 at Washington) and the Falcons.

For Thursday night’s kickoff game, the sharps have already come in and grabbed the five points with the Saints at Green Bay. It may seem like a dead number, but in the same game last season, the Saints beat the Vikings as five-point favorites, 14-9.

A tip of the cap goes out to the crew at the Hilton for being the first in the world to offer the lines and not have too much of a variance in the numbers and where they eventually settled. The sharps nibbled away at some of the numbers early on while also adjusting the numbers based on preseason performance. It’s pretty sound odds making with a solid forecast on what both the sharps and public would play.

NFL Teasers

One of the best values a sports book offers that isn’t played as much as it should is the two-team six-point NFL teaser. The sharps have been playing them for years, but the public hasn’t jumped all in opting to play more options for less money getting higher returns.

When looking at what the sports books want you to play, you can just look at the limits offered. The lower the limits, the less they want you to play. The limits are based on how they do in each particular category. They’re either low because they don’t get enough two-way action or they’re low because they don’t win consistently enough at it. In the two-team teasers case, it's the latter.

The bulk of the action the sports books get on two-team NFL teasers is sharp action. Some books have completely taken the option away starting their pay chart at three-team teasers. MGM Resort properties had not offered the two-team six-point teasers for seven years, but have recently put the option back on the board at -120 with a $5,000 limit, a very fair price considering most books offer -130.

The value with the teaser simply rests with the NFL line being the most sound line of any sport in the world. There isn’t a more solid number than a pro football game. When you can add six-points to the best line in the world, that is some great value, especially when crossing over key numbers like 3, 7 and 10 when laying or taking the points.

Caesars Palace Rivalry Matchup Props

The Caesars Palace properties will be offering weekly rivalry props putting teams like the Packers and Bears against each all season despite not actually playing each other. A line of the side and total will be set between the two teams and the final score from the game they’re playing that week will be inputted. The Packers are -6 ½-point favorites against the Bears this week. The Saints are pick’em against the Falcons.

“We wanted NFL fans to have more appeal to the teams they’re rooting for than just the individual games those teams are playing in,” said the Rio’s Todd Fuhrman. “It gives the Packers fan now the opportunity to bet their teams performance against the hated Bears every week. We want to keep the rivalries going all year which is why we’ll also have a weekly line up on the Steelers vs. Ravens all season.“

Other rivalries you can bet all season beginning this week include the Redskins vs. Cowboys (-1 ½), Patriots (-3 ½) vs. Jets, Jets (-2) vs. Giants, and 49ers (-4) vs. Raiders.

Lucky’s Sports Book Grand Opening at the Riviera

Just in time for the first week of the NFL, Lucky’s will be having a Grand Opening party at their new location inside the Riviera this Thursday as the Saints and Packers kickoff the season. Appetizers and drinks will be offered, see you there.

The Linemakers TV Show

This Friday night at 8 pm on HD Theatre, ‘The Linemakers’ TV show will start the first of 26 episodes for that will run through the Super Bowl. A show of this kind was long overdue in this television world we live in where exterminators, bakers, and tow truck drivers have their own shows. What is more interesting than real bookmakers talking about spreads and how the number got to where it is?

The linemakers on the show are a regular who’s who of Las Vegas bookmaking legends starring Jimmy Vaccaro, Vinnie Magliulo, Richie Baccellieri, Lou D’Amico, Rick Herron and Kenny White. The show is hosted by Sports Book Radio’s Brian Blessing.

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Jags release Garrard, plan to start McCown

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - The Jacksonville Jaguars have released veteran quarterback David Garrard, a stunning move that will save the franchise $9 million this season.

Whether it saves coach Jack Del Rio's job remains to be seen. Team owner Wayne Weaver has said Jacksonville needs to make the playoffs for Del Rio to stick around for a 10th season. Del Rio made it clear late last season that he had grown tired of Garrard's inconsistent ways.

Del Rio's quarterback swap is similar to what he did in 2007, when he released Byron Leftwich in favor of Garrard after the preseason. This time, though, Del Rio has been steadfast that Garrard was the starter.

Garrard missed the preseason opener because of a sore back, but started the final three games. He completed 50 percent of his passes for 216 yards, with no touchdowns and an interception.

Luke McCown is expected to start the opener against the Tennessee Titans.

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Chicago Bears Underdogs At Atlanta Falcons

The ’under’ has cashed in each of the last seven meetings between the Falcons and Bears.
Two NFC playoff teams from a year ago will try to build on that success in their 2011 regular-season opener when the Atlanta Falcons visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday at Soldier Field. Both teams overachieved in earning the top two seeds last season before ultimately losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. The Falcons are sitting as 3-point road favorites according to the Don Best odds screen while the total is 41.

Atlanta finished with the conference’s best record in 2010 at 13-3 but was crushed by Green Bay 48-21 at home in the divisional round of the playoffs. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers shredded the Falcons secondary for 366 yards and three touchdowns on his way to becoming Super Bowl XLV MVP.

Rodgers knocked the Bears out of the playoffs a week later after they finished 11-5 and won the NFC North, outplaying Chicago’s Jay Cutler, who will be looking to put a disastrous performance in that 21-14 loss behind him.

Cutler has improved his footwork and lost some weight in the offseason in hopes of taking the next step in his development. He will be the signal caller in offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s system for the second straight year and looks to increase his touchdowns and cut back his interceptions off a solid season, which ended with him hurt on the sidelines after he suffered a knee injury against Green Bay in the NFC Championship.

The Bears surrendered an NFL-worst 56 sacks last year and selected offensive tackle Gabe Carimi in the first round of the draft to help solve their problems on the line. However, they also lost starting center Olin Kreutz to the New Orleans Saints and will have to deal with an Atlanta defense that added defensive end Ray Edwards, who signed as a free agent from the Minnesota Vikings.

Edwards is very familiar with Chicago and could be a factor in this game.

The Falcons also recently signed veteran cornerback Kelvin Hayden and safety James Sanders to bolster their defense, and they should be more explosive on offense as well with the addition of rookie wide receiver Julio Jones. Injury-plagued wideout Harry Douglas could help too if he can return to the form of his rookie year back in 2008.

Jones and Douglas give quarterback Matt Ryan a couple more weapons in addition to the reigning NFL receptions leader in Roddy White.

Atlanta finished 0-4 in the preseason, but few are concerned considering a lot of emphasis was put on quickly developing Jones into a playmaker. The Falcons have won the last two meetings with the Bears both straight up and against the spread, but both of those games were at home.

Atlanta's recent covers broke a Chicago 5-0-1 ATS streak, and the ‘under’ has cashed in the last seven games between them.

The weather forecast for the Windy City on Sunday calls for a high temperature of 79 degrees under mostly sunny skies.

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Buffalo Bills At KC Chiefs NFL Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills have covered six of the last seven matchups against the Chiefs.
Following a disappointing preseason during which they finished as one of three winless teams in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs will begin the 2011 NFL regular season with a clean slate on Sunday when they host the Buffalo Bills.

Usually, failing to win a game in the preseason would not be much of a concern, especially considering the Chiefs made the playoffs last year. But they also suffered some key injuries that could impact whether or not they return to the postseason.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by CBS. Kansas City is listed as a 6-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with a total of 39 ½.

The defending AFC West champions went 10-6 last season but averaged just 10.5 points in four preseason games and saw starting quarterback Matt Cassel suffer a rib injury in the finale at Green Bay. Cassel is expected to start, but they are very thin at the position with only veteran Tyler Palko and rookie Ricky Stanzi behind him.

The team also lost starting tight end Tony Moeaki for the season due to a knee injury after he was one of Cassel’s top targets a year ago with 47 catches for 556 yards and three touchdowns.

Defensively, Kansas City figures to be just as solid as last season, and the unit may be counted on to limit the opposition even more if the offense continues to struggle. Safety Eric Berry is in just his second year for the Chiefs but is already considered one of the best at his position while linebackers Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali are also elite players.

Buffalo did not fare much better in the preseason at 1-3, but the team is also not coming off a playoff year. The Bills finished 4-12 last season, showing some promise in going 2-2 in their last four games.

However, their last two games came against the AFC East’s two best teams and resulted in two losses by a combined score of 72-10.

Despite showing a need for a franchise quarterback over the past few years, Buffalo has selected players at different positions recently in the NFL draft to fill other holes. Ryan Fitzpatrick starts his third season under center for the Bills and will have running backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller splitting carries behind him in the backfield. Spiller was the team’s first-round draft pick last year and saw limited action, carrying the ball 74 times for 283 yards while Jackson saw a majority of the work with 222 carries for 927 yards.

The Bills selected defensive end Marcell Dareus out of Alabama with the third overall pick this year, and they are hoping he will be able to team with linebackers Shawne Merriman and Nick Barnett to give them a bit of a mean streak. They have played outstanding defense in the last two meetings with Kansas City over the past two years, both of which were played at Arrowhead Stadium.

Buffalo went 1-1 straight up in those games but covered each of them against the spread. In fact, the Chiefs are just 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings with the ‘under’ going 8-1 in the past nine.

The weather in Kansas City on Sunday is expected to be mostly sunny and warm with a high temperature of 84 degrees.

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Cincinnati Bengals Visit Cleveland Browns Week 1

The Cincinnati Bengals are 15-22 when playing the Browns in Cleveland.
A pair of AFC North rivals square off in Week 1, as the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Cleveland Browns Sunday afternoon at Cleveland Browns Stadium. The opening kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 (ET) and will be televised on CBS.

The betting odds show Cleveland opening up as a 3-point home favorite and since moving to nearly a touchdown in most spots. The total has made a 2-point move downwards to its current standing of 35 ½.

Both teams covered the number on their home turf in last year’s series, as the Browns captured a 23-20 win as 1½-point underdogs on Oct. 3, while the Bengals earned revenge in a 19-17 victory as a slim 1-point favorite.

This particular meeting will mark the sixth time the Buckeye State rivals have opened regular season play against each other with Cleveland holding in a 3-2 advantage. In fact, the Browns are 5-4 all-time when opening up against a divisional opponent.

Second-year quarterback Colt McCoy assumed the starting role for Cleveland under center during the preseason, dropping three consecutive games straight up and against the spread. The Browns startd the preseason with a 27-17 victory over the Green Bay Packers as 2½-point home favorites.

McCoy played in eight games in 2010 and completed 135-of-222 passes for 1,576 yards with six touchdowns to go alongside nine interceptions.

He will have the luxury of handing the ball off to running back Peyton Hillis, who earned the distinction of being placed on the Madden 2012 cover during the offseason. The former Arkansas Razorbacks runner gained a team-high 1,177 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns last year.

Bettors will definitely be wary of backing the Browns due to not playing a single game as a home favorite of 3½-7 points over the last two seasons. The ‘over’ is 9-7 in their last 16 contests playing in front of the Dawg Pound.

Cincinnati leads the “Battle of Ohio” by a 39-36 count in the previous 75 meetings, but has tallied a lackluster 15-22 mark when playing as the road team. The Bengals are 7-9 ATS in their last 16 games away from home.

Head coach Marvin Lewis begins his ninth season at the helm and is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 4-12 finish during the 2010 season.

A new-look team will be under his direction in Cincinnati, including two fresh faces offensively. The Bengals selected quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green in this year’s draft to replace veterans Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco respectively. It’s going to take time for the duo to develop, as the offense mustered up just 47 combined points in four preseason games, finishing with a 1-3 SU and ATS mark.

The ‘under’ is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two franchises, while the underdog has ended up with the cash in seven of eight.

Weather forecasts are calling for game-time highs in the low-70s and a 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms.

[StarDust Bum]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Host Detroit Lions

Warm and muggy with a chance of rain is in Sunday’s forecast for Tampa Bay.
The Detroit Lions were the toast of the 2011 NFL preseason by beating the spread in all four games and will now aim to extend their regular-season win streak to five games.

Tampa Bay just missed the 2010 playoffs by finishing the year with a 10-6 straight up record and will begin its third season under the direction of coach Raheem Morris.

The two teams square off at Raymond James Stadium Sunday, with the opening kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. (ET), and will be broadcast to television viewers on FOX.

Tampa Bay was sent out in the betting odds as 3-point home favorites once the NFL lockout was lifted, but that number been bet down to one and even a pick 'em in some spots due to Detroit’s preseason exploits. The total has stayed relatively stable near its current standing of 41.

The Buccaneers will be led offensively by third-year starter Josh Freeman, coming off a 2010 campaign that saw him toss 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. He is also somewhat of a dual-threat in the pocket and finished second in the league in rushing yards by a quarterback.

On the other side of the ball, it’s questionable whether a pair of defensive end selections in this year’s draft will improve a Bucs defense that ranked 31st in the NFL against the pass. Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers will be coming off the edges and join 2010 third overall pick, Gerald McCoy.

Bettors will find that the Buccaneers are 3-11 against the spread in home games over the past two years, while the total is evenly split at 7-7 'over/under' in that span.

Detroit will be seen as an offensive juggernaut by the betting public after scoring 30 or more points in three of four exhibition contests. The entire season rests on the right shoulder of third-year signal caller Matthew Stafford.

The former No. 1 pick has played just 13 career games under center due to injuries, but just finished off a stellar preseason. He completed over 77 percent of his passes and tossed five touchdowns without throwing an interceptions.

Stafford didn’t participate in Detroit’s 23-20 win as 3 ½-point road underdogs last year when the Lions punished the Buccaneers on the ground by gaining 181 yards on 28 carries. Lions head coach Jim Schwartz is hoping to apply more pressure to Freeman this year, as he connected on 21-of-32 pass attempts for 251 yards and a touchdown in giving a spirited effort.

Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh will be leading the effort to get after the Buccaneers quarterback and will be joined by right defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch. The duo will not have first-round pick Nick Fairley by their sides, as the former Auburn Tigers star has been ruled out with a foot injury that he suffered during the preseason.

It may not matter who makes it on the field in this one, as the Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in Tampa Bay.

Weather forecasts are suggesting game-time highs to reach the low-90s in the Tampa Bay area and a 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms.

[StarDust Bum]

Jaguars Open Season Against Rival Tennessee Titans

The ’under’ is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Titans and Jaguars.
Professional football is finally back and Sunday’s first week of NFL action includes an AFC South grudge match between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET) from EverBank Field.

The Jags were a 3-point favorite when some huge news came down the pipe, causing the line to go off the board. On Tuesday, just five days before the team’s opener, the Jaguars released veteran starting quarterback David Garrard.

There are now a wide variety of odds, but the Don Best odds screen currently has Jacksonville -2½ with a low total set at 37.

Head coach Jack Del Rio and GM Gene Smith, who is doing a masterful job in his third year rebuilding this roster, made it clear that this decision was purely football related. It should not be ignored, however, that Garrard would have made around $8 million had he been on the roster on Sunday.

Instead, eighth year journemany Luke McCown out of Lousiana Tech will get the start in Week 1.

This has an eerily similar feel to the very situation when Garrard first became the starter back in 2007, taking over for Byron Leftwich who was surprisingly let go. The Jaguars actually went on to defeat the Steelers in Pittsburgh during the playoffs that season.

Jacksonville has a couple of the factors that many thought would be important coming out of a lockout. They have a veteran head coach, both coordinators returning and McCown has at least been in their system for two years.

Owner Wayne Weaver has already stated that if the Jags do not make the playoffs, Del Rio will be gone. Rookie Blaine Gabbert is the QB of the future; McCown starts Week 1. Time will tell how long Gabbert holds the clipboard.

On the Tennessee side there is a rookie head coach, a new QB and their entire offseason was highlighted by a holdout from their best player, Chris Johnson.

Tennessee’s top-2 passers from a year ago are gone and that might be best. However, the Titans picked up a QB on the backside of his career in Matt Hasselbeck. With Hasselbeck, the Titans get a player who can play lights out (as in the Seahawks’ improbable victory over the Saints in last year’s playoffs), but also one who has not thrown more TDs than interceptions in any of the last three seasons. The Titans' rookie QB-in-waiting is former Washington Huskies star Jake Locker.

Of course, they are a running team and the offense will revolve around Johnson. He will start this game but it is yet to be seen how he will play after being out for the entire preseason.

Someone who has been working hard is star running back Maurice Jones-Drew. MoJo suffered from a knee injury throughout 2010 but did not do anything about it until the last couple weeks when Jacksonville’s playoff hopes were on life support. The coaching staff left him and defensive end Aaron Kampman out until Week 4 of the preseason, staying on the safe side with their rehab from injury.

These teams have long been about running the ball and defense. However, in 2010 defense was a problem for both as the Titans and Jags were No. 26 and No. 28 in total ‘D,’ respectively.

Tennessee had an underrated free agent signing in linebacker Barrett Ruud as well as drafting another, Akeem Ayers from UCLA.

Jacksonville put a major emphasis on the defensive side signing a ton of solid, key free agents including linebackers Paul Posluszny and Clint Session, safety Dawan Landry and nickel-back Drew Coleman. Safety play for the Jaguars may have been one of the biggest issues of any NFL team a year ago. They were San Diego Chargers special teams bad.

Last year’s No. 10 pick in the 2010 draft, defensive tackle Tyson Alualu, has been the best looking player on the Jaguars in practice and the preseason. He could have a breakout year. Add Kampman back to the mix along with an extremely good and underrated player in their other DT, Terrance Knighton, and this defensive line may wreak havoc.

This series has been odd of late. In the past four games, the teams have split wins evenly and every game was a double-digit victory. Furthermore, they each won at home in 2009 and each won on the road in 2010.

One of the best trends to look at in this game is that Jacksonville is 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 season openers. Each team has multiple trends shading to the ‘over’ but the 'under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Temperatures should be about 85 degrees with a chance of thunderstorms at kickoff. Even if the weather is not beautiful, the return of NFL Sundays sure is.

[StarDust Bum]

Professor prefers Philip

September 7, 2011

MVP Prop Play

Here is a prop play that is loaded with line value. San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers to win the Most Valuable Player! Right now you can get at least 12/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $1,200) at some betting shops. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have won two MVP’s each in the last four years. Rivers has a real shot this season. I believe that his main competition is coming from another pair of gunslingers in Green Bay’s Aaron Rogers and New Orleans’ Drew Brees.

San Diego’s 9-7 record last season was a fluke that was caused by atrocious special teams play. With the receiving core that Rivers has, he should put up some HUGE numbers in the weak AFC West. Last season, the Chargers were swept by the Raiders. This season, they will be primed for revenge and Nnamdi Asomugha is not in the Raiders’ secondary anymore. The Denver Broncos have a terrible defense and Kansas City is in for a butt-kicking because the Chiefs had the nerve to win their division last season.

The Chargers lost three games last season when they were more than seven-point favorites. Why? Because they came out of the locker room flat and overconfident and they featured their rushing and short passing game. They lost 20-17 to the Rams laying eight, 28-13 laying 13 to the Raiders and 34-20 to the Bengals laying 7 ½-points. In the first quarter of these three games the Chargers were outscored 31-0. That’s right! They were outscored 31-0 in the first quarter despite the fact that they were laying more than a TD. Hopefully, head coach Norv Turner will learn that you have to let this team play THEIR game even against weak opponent. They have to CRUSH weak opposition EARLY in the game. They have to come out firing. When you come out passively, it just gives the underdog hope. Turner has to loosen the reins on this team and let them fly. Norv needs to channel the ghost of Don Coryell and let Rivers throw the ball on virtually every down.

The Chargers will be underdogs only twice this season – at New England in Week 2 and at New York against the Jets in Week 7. The Patriots will be off a Monday Night Football affair with the Dolphins AND the Jets will be also be coming off a MNF divisional battle with the Dolphins. Teams have usually suffered the week after battling the Dolphins and this should give Rivers the edge. In addition, Rivers and the Chargers will have an extra week to prepare for the Jets' defense since Week 6 is San Diego’s bye.

Another reason why we lean toward Rivers is that the Chargers’ defense is much better than that of the Colts or the Patriots. This means that the Chargers’ offense will spend more time on the field and, hence, have more scoring opportunities.

Philip Rivers led the league in passing yards in 2010 despite the fact that he had 117 fewer attempts than Drew Brees and 138 fewer attempts than Peyton Manning.

Finally, the Chargers have a QUALITY offensive line that has been playing together for some time now and in pass protection, this is important.

This is a nice price for a Pro-Bowl QB that has the consensus best set of receivers in the entire league.

[StarDust Bum]

Back the Pack, Fade Pitt?

September 7, 2011

After a long summer and short offseason due to the lockout, the NFL regular season will kickoff Thursday with Green Bay hosting New Orleans in the primetime opener from Lambeau Field. The battle between the defending champions from the last two years should be intriguing since both clubs are considered public favorites.
So do you bet on the Packers, who ripped off four straight wins and covers during last year’s Super Bowl run and hope the momentum carries over to this year? Or do you hope that the Saints get back on track after getting upset to Seattle as 9 ½-point road favorites in the first round of last year’s playoffs?

In late April, the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book opened Green Bay as a five-point favorite and the number has been hovering between four and 4 ½-points this week.

Even though some clubs play poorly as the hunted rather than the hunted, the Super Bowl champions haven’t fallen too quickly from the pedestal, especially in their Week 1 openers!

Eleven years and counting now, the defending champion has won its opener, which might not come as a big surprise to you since they’re usually at home and listed as a favorite as well. What might impress you is the champions mark against the spread over this stretch, which stands at 8-2-1.

Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2010)
Year SB Winner Opponent Result
2011 Green Bay New Orleans
2010 New Orleans (-4.5) Minnesota 14-9 (Cover)
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) Tennessee 13-10 (Non-Cover)
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) Washington 16-7 (Cover)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) New Orleans 41-10 (Cover)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) Miami 30-20 (Cover)
2005 New England (-7.5) Oakland 30-20 (Cover)
2004 New England (-3) Indianapolis 27-24 (Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) Philadelphia 17-0 (Cover)
2002 New England (PK) Pittsburgh 30-14 (Cover)
2001 Baltimore (-10) Chicago 17-6 (Cover)
2000 St. Louis (-7) Denver 41-36 (Non-Cover)


Looking at the table above, gamblers can see that the Saints were able to keep the streak going last year with a 14-9 victory over the Vikings. Some gamblers may’ve gotten a push (-5) or a loss (-5.5) but the closing number (4.5) came down after Brett Favre laced it up for Minnesota.

Can the Saints snap this streak and capture the road win on Thursday? Host of the VI Power Hours and handicapper Brian Edwards doesn’t have a good feel on the game but is looking at the total.

He said, “New Orleans made a few off-season changes after losing at Seattle in last year’s playoffs. The Saints got rid of Reggie Bush and added Darren Sproles, while also drafting RB Mark Ingram, who gives them a bruising back that can do damage between the tackles. These changes should help Drew Brees and Sean Payton’s lethal aerial attack. One negative for New Orleans in Week 1 will be the absence of pass-rushing specialist Will Smith, who is suspended for two games.”

“Green Bay basically stood pat with its roster and had no major defections. Therefore, once again, the Packers have as much talent as any team in the NFL. They have an excellent chance to repeat if Aaron Rodgers, who is just entering his prime, can stay healthy.

Maybe my opinion will change later in the week, but right now the side is a pass for me. Even though 47 is a high number, I’ll be giving the ‘over’ some major consideration with two of the NFL’s top-five QBs on the field.”

Green Bay was 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home last season, while New Orleans was 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS on the road. Keep in mind that five of the six wins by the Saints came against non-playoff teams.

Another team that was solid to back on the road in 2010 was Pittsburgh, who went 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS, the lone loss coming against the aforementioned Saints (10-20).

The Steelers’ success on the road this season might start out slow, especially if the Super Bowl loser trend continues in Week 1. The situation has been just as strong as the above angle that focuses on Green Bay and sometimes more valuable not just for the opening week but the entire season.

Gamblers have watched the loser of the last year’s Super Bowl go 2-10 SU and 1-10-1 ATS in Week 1 over the past 12 seasons.

Super Bowl Loser - Week 1 History (1999-2010)
Year Loser Opponent Line Result
2011 Pittsburgh at Baltimore
2010 Indianapolis at Houston -2.5 Loss 27-34
2009 Arizona vs. San Francisco -6.5 Loss 16-20
2008 New England vs. Kansas City -16 Win 17-10
2007 Chicago at San Diego +6 Loss 3-14
2006 Seattle at Detroit -6 Win 9-6
2005 Philadelphia at Atlanta -1 Loss 10-14
2004 Carolina vs. Green Bay -3 Loss 14-24
2003 Oakland at Tennessee +3 Loss 20-25
2002 St. Louis at Denver -3 Loss 16-23
2001 N.Y. Giants vs. San Francisco +3 Loss 13-16
2000 Tennessee at Buffalo PK Loss 13-16
1999 Atlanta at Minnesota +4 Loss 14-17 (Cover)


Pittsburgh will travel to Baltimore on Sunday and the number has been bouncing all around, with the Ravens listed as short favorites between one and two points at most books. Is the line right?

Edwards explains, “This could be the first of three head-to-head meetings between Baltimore and Pittsburgh this season. I like what the Ravens did with the acquisition of WR Lee Evans, who can stretch the field with his speed. There’s been a lot of preseason talk about Baltimore’s defense starting to age, but I’ll still happily take Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs on my squad. Plus, the Ravens get cover corner Domonique Foxworth back after he missed last year with an injury. If the number stays south of three, I lean to Baltimore at home.”

Pittsburgh did take two of three from Baltimore last season, including a 31-24 win in the playoffs. Despite that, most gamblers following this head-to-head rivalry are well aware that nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by seven or less, including six outcomes by four or less.

[StarDust Bum]

Saints at Packers

September 7, 2011

The NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the last two Super Bowl champions hooking up at Lambeau Field. The Packers start their title defense against a Saints' team that was upset in the Wild Card round against the 7-9 Seahawks. The pressure lies on Green Bay's shoulders in the opener as the Pack tries to prove that last year's run to a championship wasn't a fluke.

In spite of losing six games last season, Mike McCarthy's squad never dropped a contest by more than four points. The Packers won six straight elimination games down the stretch en route to their title, including home victories over the Giants and Bears in the final two weeks of the regular season just to make the playoffs. Green Bay took care of business as short road underdogs at Philadelphia and Atlanta in the first two rounds of the playoffs, while winning as favorites over Chicago in the NFC Title game and Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV.

The Saints experienced the thrill of a first Super Bowl triumph in February 2010, but the hangover was evident this past season as New Orleans started 4-3. Sean Payton's club reeled off six straight wins, while settling for second place in the NFC South behind Atlanta at 11-5. Unfortunately, the Saints needed to travel cross-country for a Wild Card matchup at Seattle, even though the Seahawks were below .500. New Orleans squandered an early 10-0 lead and lost outright, 41-36 as 10-point road favorites, bringing their Super Bowl defense to a grinding halt.

For as little as preseason means (especially this season), the Packers bounced back from an opening week loss at Cleveland to capture three straight wins. However, Green Bay went 2-2 in the 2010 preseason on its way to a Super Bowl title. On the flip side, the Saints split their four preseason games, including a trouncing of Oakland on national television in Week 3 by a 40-20 count as 4 ½-point favorites.

New Orleans is making its first trip to Lambeau Field since Drew Brees' first season with the Saints in 2006. The Saints grabbed a 34-27 victory in Week 2 as two-point favorites, as New Orleans began that season at 5-1. Green Bay couldn't return the favor when the two teams met on a Monday night at the Superdome in 2008 when the Saints obliterated the Packers, 51-29 as one-point 'chalk.'

The defending Super Bowl champion has fared well since they started their season on Thursday nights back in 2004. In each instance, the home team has come out on top, while compiling a 5-1-1 ATS record with the only teams failing to cash tickets being the 2004 Patriots and the 2009 Steelers. VegasInsider.com's Chris David chronicles this fantastic trend right here, which actually stretches all the way back to 2000 with the defending champion winning 11 straight times in the following season openers.

The Saints own a 4-1 SU/ATS mark in season openers under Payton, with the lone loss coming on a Thursday night at Indianapolis to start the 2007 season (Colts in the defending champ role). The Packers have matched the Saints' prowess in season openers with a 4-1 SU/ATS ledger under McCarthy, while winning four consecutive Week 1 contests since getting blanked by the Bears at home in 2006.

The Packers are listed as a four-point favorite at most sportsbooks with several places moving Green Bay to 4 ½. The total is set at 47 ½ across the board, as the game can be seen nationally on NBC at 8:30 PM EST.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, September 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 8:30 PM ET New Orleans +4.5 500

Green Bay - Under 47.5 500