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  • The Bum's Monday's Best Bets MLB !

    Oakland Athletics Collide With Tribe In Cleveland

    Bettors will get another chance on Monday night to dig right into a fantastic clash on the diamond, as the Oakland Athletics begin a four-game series with the Cleveland Indians. The first pitch from Progressive Field is slated for 7:05 p.m. (ET), and there will be live TV coverage on Comcast Sports and Sports Time.

    The A's have been the epitome of betting trouble on the road this year, already accounting for 11.56 units worth of losses. They are about to wrap up a 10-game roadie with this trip to Cleveland. Things have gone relatively well thanks to two wins against the New York Yankees in the Bronx, but Saturday's doubleheader against the Boston Red Sox resulted in two ugly losses.

    Now with an off day thanks to Hurricane Irene, the A's are set to throw Brandon McCarthy on Monday night. McCarthy has been hot, leading Oakland to a 7-1 mark in his last eight starts.

    The righty has pitched relatively well this season, posting a 3.72 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He's done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing just seven homers, and he has only walked 21 batters in 125 2/3-innings of work. You'd think that these numbers would produce a solid record, but McCarthy is only 7-6.

    The Indians are still trying to hang in the AL Central race, but with the Detroit Tigers surging, things are looking gloomy. The team added Jim Thome last week, but it probably won't be enough to get into the postseason.

    There's a bit of a void right now in the Cleveland pitching staff, as only Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez and Fausto Carmona are regulars in the rotation. David Huff is scheduled to get the ball on Monday night, marking just his fifth start of the season.

    Huff has only been up in the majors since July 18, and up until he allowed five runs in just 2 1/3-innings against the Tigers on August 20, he had been pitching fairly well. He is 1-2 with a 2.70 ERA on the campaign.

    This southpaw, the only lefty in the Cleveland rotation at the moment, is coming off of a disastrous 2-11 season in 2010 that he is trying to forget about. Still, with a 5.57 career ERA and a 1.58 WHIP, there can't be a ton of confidence in Huff if you plan on backing the Tribe on the MLB betting lines to start off your week.

    The Indians are only 5-16 in Huff's last 21 starts overall, and they are just 3-13 in his last 16 starts on grass.

    It also doesn't help Cleveland's case any when you look at the recent history of these two teams. Sure, the Indians took two out of three in Oakland earlier this season, but they are also just 5-12 in the last 17 clashes overall. The Athletics won both series here at Progressive Field last season, going 4-2 in those games and holding Cleveland to just 1.67 runs per game.

    The 'under' has gone 19-7-1 in the last 27 duels of these American League foes, but that doesn't mean that you should immediately bank on a low scoring affair. Oakland is 17-4-2 for 'over' bettors in its last 23 road games, and it is 35-12-5 towards the 'over' in its last 52 games overall.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Philadelphia Phillies At Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Preview

    Hurricane Irene's disruption to the schedule behind us, Major League Baseball begins its final 31 days of the regular season on Monday when the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Cincinnati Reds for the first of a 4-game series.

    ESPN's cameras will be on hand for the opener from Great American Ball Park where Phils southpaw Cole Hamels is expected to make his return from a short stint on the disabled list. He'll be opposed by Reds righty Homer Bailey in the 7:10 p.m. (ET) start.

    Opening numbers on the Don Best odds screen listed the Phillies -150 with an 8-run total.

    Charlie Manuel's club might have a little rust to shake off after sitting idle over the weekend due to the Atlantic storm. The final two home games against the Florida Marlins will be made up in a doubleheader about two weeks from now.

    Philadelphia reached a season-high 35 games over .500 on Aug. 10, but has since gone 6-6. The Phillies enter this series on a mini 2-game slide, but have been a solid road squad overall this season at 37-24 (14-5 since the all-star break).

    Monday's outing will be the first start for Hamels (16-9, 2.62) in 18 days after the left-hander was shelved due to shoulder inflammation. His most recent trip to the hill (Aug. 12) was a loss at home to the Nationals and Philadelphia is a pedestrian 3-3 in his six second-half starts.

    Hamels carries a 6-2 personal record in 11 road games (2.82 ERA) with the Phillies going 8-3. The Phils are a perfect 9-0 when he takes on the Reds, a streak that includes a complete game shutout in the playoffs last season and a 10-3 win when the clubs met in Philadelphia this May carrying a -165 number on the betting line.

    The Reds needed 14 innings, but they finished their home sweep of the Nationals on Sunday to push their record to 67-66 (-9.5 units) to move above .500 for the first time since they were 43-42 on July 3. It was Cincinnati's fourth consecutive triumph though it got them no closer than 13 games behind NL Central-leading Milwaukee entering the week.

    This will be the sixth career appearance for Bailey (8-8, 4.44) against the Phillies, and fifth start, and looks to get off the schneid after all five of his previous outings vs. Philadelphia have ended in Cincinnati defeats. He faced the Phils in the May series at Citizens Bank Park and took the loss in a 10-4 Philadelphia cakewalk.

    Bailey's career ERA vs. the Phillies is 6.30, including a couple of shutout innings in relief during last October's NLCS.

    The good news for the Reds is they are 6-2 in Bailey's eight starts in Cincinnati this campaign. Philadelphia's available lineup for Monday has hit a collective .269 off the Reds righty with Ryan Howard and Raul Ibañez each taking Bailey deep once over the years.

    This is the second and final meeting of the schedule for the clubs. The Phils took three of four at home back in May, all four of the contests cashing 'over' tickets with the totals running in the 7-8 run range. Cincinnati won two of the three played at Great American Ball Park last season when two of the games jumped the betting total.

    Weather shouldn't be a factor for Monday's contest with a game-time temp in the 70s, partly cloudy skies and a slight NE breeze (in from left). The series continues Tuesday with a matchup of veteran right-handers, Roy Halladay and Bronson Arroyo.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Diamond Trends - Monday

      August 29, 2011

      SU TREND OF THE DAY:


      The Twins are 8-0 since May 17, 2010 on the road after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $910.


      OU TREND OF THE DAY:


      The Twins are 9-0 OU since May 03, 2010 vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing the over.


      STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


      The Dodgers are 0-10 OU since June 04, 2008 when Clayton Kershaw starts at home after his team scored a total of seven or more runs in his last start for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.


      MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


      The Reds are 1-14 since 2004 in the first game of a home series when they are off a win in which they were not favored, had more than twelve hits and struck out more than three times.


      TODAY’S TRENDS:


      The Dodgers are 7-0 since April 08, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a one run loss for a net profit of $700.

      The Blue Jays are 8-0 since April 15, 2010 as a favorite after a 5+ run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800.

      The Yankees are 0-8-1 OU since June 10, 2010 on the road when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        MLB Betting Notes

        August 29, 2011

        The highlight of the baseball week kicks off with another meeting between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees for a three-game series beginning Tuesday at Fenway Park. The rivals are both almost assured of making the playoffs and are only battling for the division crown, but it should be intense as always.

        Through Sunday’s games, the Red Sox had a two-game lead on New York in the AL East and the Yankees had a 6 ½-game lead over the Rays for the Wild Card. If you’re just looking at divisional play, the Red Sox are the best (31-15) while the Yankees have struggled (25-23). The disparities between the two records rest alone with their play against each other where Boston has won all four series this season going 10-2 against them.

        Taking the mound for the Yankees in Tuesday’s game will be C.C. Sabathia (17-7, 2.99 ERA), who is 0-4 with a 7.20 ERA in four starts against Boston this season. Sabathia’s first three losses against the Yankees didn’t come as much of a surprise because he lost to Josh Beckett each time, but his last loss on Aug. 6 was a major shocker as he imploded for seven runs while going against John Lackey (12-9, 5.98 ERA), who he’ll be matched up against Tuesday.

        Prior to that butchering, Sabathia was in his usual mid-season form, going 9-1 in his previous 10 starts and was a contender for not only the Cy Young award, but also being discussed for MVP considerations because he was the rock that kept the team excelling every fifth day amid all kinds of Yankees pitching problems.

        However, the Red Sox pounding seemed to take away all his momentum away and shatter his confidence as he’s gone on to lose two of his last three starts since.

        Meanwhile, the Red Sox continue to win games John Lackey starts despite having the highest ERA among regular starting pitching in the majors. The Red Sox have gone 7-2 in his last nine appearances with him putting in about six innings of work and allowing four runs a game over that stretch. In those seven wins, he’s been the good luck charm for Boston bats as they have put up 59 runs.

        Even though Sabathia has struggled lately and the Red Sox have owned him, there should be plenty of value with him and the Yankees in this game, especially knowing Lackey is sure to give up at least four runs.

        Wednesday’s matchup has the much improved Phil Hughes (4-4, 6.46 ERA) going against Beckett (11-5, 2.43 ERA). While Beckett has a sparkling 3-0 record with an ERA of 1.00 against the Yanks in four starts -- all Boston wins, his August numbers haven’t been as solid as his first four months. The Red Sox have still won four of his five starts in the month, but his ERA is 3.60.

        Hughes got beat up early at home against the A’s in his last start, a game the Yankees eventually won 22-9, but overall the Yankees are 5-0 in his August starts. Outside of the Oakland game, he’s been dazzling with only three earned runs in his other four starts.

        Based on the way Beckett has been giving away more runs lately and the improved pitching of Hughes, the Yankees at a very chunky plus-money price could be a nice play.

        Thursday’s series finale has Andrew Miller (6-1, 4.42 ERA) tentatively going against the struggling A.J. Burnett (9-11, 5.31 ERA) who has lost his last two starts by giving up 16 combined runs. It would be one thing if the 16 runs came against a team like Texas or Boston, but getting trashed by the Twins and Orioles is an entirely different story. Should Burnett pitch poorly again, the Yankees may not have a hard decision to make regarding his status in the rotation. In his only start against Boston this season, he gave up 8 runs in 5.2 innings of work in a 11-6 loss.

        As bad as Burnett has been in his last two games, Miller has been the complete opposite winning his last two starts where he shutout the Rangers for 6.1 innings in a 6-0 win and allowed only one run in 5.1 innings in a 7-1 win against the Royals. His improvement coincides with extra coaching from Boston pitching coach Curt Young who shortened his stride which has helped his command.

        The only way to back Burnett in this one is if the Yankees win the first two games. These two teams have a propensity over the years to keep momentum going and sweep. Should the Red Sox win the first two or split, Boston is the easy play here.

        Should Boston not fare well in this series, it could turn into a disastrous week as they’ll welcome the AL West leading Rangers in for a three game set over the weekend.

        Another key series this weekend has the Diamondbacks visiting San Francisco for a very important National League West matchup. Through Sunday, Arizona had expanded their lead over the Giants to four games as the D-Backs were riding a six-game winning streak. The defending world champs have to win the series to avoid letting Arizona run away as the September stretch gets under way.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          Orioles look for rare series win over Yankees

          NEW YORK YANKEES (79-52)

          at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (53-78)


          First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
          Line: N.Y. Yankees -170, Baltimore +160, Total: 9.5

          The Yankees look to salvage a split in Baltimore when they conclude their series with the Orioles on Monday night.

          If the Yankees lose on Monday, it would be their first series loss in Baltimore since April 2009. But the Orioles had won six straight before dropping Game 2 of Sunday’s doubleheader, and both teams will be exhausted coming off the twin bill. That makes the -170 money line far too steep a price to pay for New York. And the FoxSheets have a three-star trend that supports BALTIMORE to win:

          Play On - Home teams (BALTIMORE) – below-average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of its save opportunities. (89-50 over the last 5 seasons, 64%, +40.2 units. Rating = 3*).

          Freddy Garcia (10-7, 3.16 ERA) returns from the disabled list, and the cut on his finger that kept him out seems to be 100% healed. There should be no lingering effects. The veteran righty had put together a nice string of starts before getting hurt, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his past four starts. That included a victory over the Orioles at Yankee Stadium on July 31, when Garcia held them to two runs over six innings, striking out six.

          Garcia has pitched very well on the road all year, going 3-3 with a 2.65 ERA over nine starts. Six of those were quality starts, and another was five innings of one-run ball in Boston in his last outing. He’s faced the Orioles twice in 2011, giving up two runs over 12 innings in two Yankee wins. He threw six shutout innings, striking out seven, at Camden Yards in April.

          Alfredo Simon (4-6, 4.30 ERA) has been surprisingly effective during his longest MLB stint as a starter. He’s 3-5 with a 4.17 ERA in nine starts, with 34 K’s and 14 BB in 54 innings. He threw a career-high eight innings last Tuesday, holding the Twins to one run and four base runners while striking out eight in a road victory. He has a 4.50 ERA in four home starts.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            Hamels returns from DL Monday in Cincinnati

            PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (83-46, +15.4 Units)

            at CINCINNATI REDS (67-66, -9.5 Units)


            First pitch: Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
            Line: Philadelphia -145, Cincinnati +135, Total: 8

            The Cincinnati Reds are winners of four straight and will host the MLB’s best, the Philadelphia Phillies, on Monday night at Great American Ball Park. The Phillies will be well-rested for this four-game series since they have not played since Friday on the account of Hurricane Irene.

            Cole Hamels (13-7, 2.62 ERA) will get the ball for the mighty Phils on Monday. Hamels is making his first start since being activated from the DL due to left shoulder inflammation and will be very happy to see Cincinnati. Hamels has dominated the Reds, going 8-0 with a 1.23 ERA, including a five-hit shutout in last year’s playoffs. Trying to slow down Philly will be right-hander Homer Bailey (7-5, 4.44 ERA). Bailey hasn’t had much success against the Phillies, going 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in four meetings. The Phillies have had no problem playing on the road where they are an NL-best 37-24 (.607) and also have lit up right-handed starters (57-37). The Reds, on the other hand, have not been too good against lefty starters (16-15) and terrible when coming off a win (29-39, -16.0 Units). A well-rested Hamels and PHILADELPHIA team should handle the streaking Reds and pull off a series-opening win on Monday night.

            The FoxSheets provide a pair of three-star trends favoring the Phillies.

            PHILADELPHIA is 22-3 (88.0%, +18.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 6.7, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*).

            PHILADELPHIA is 35-10 (77.8%, +21.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.1, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 3*).

            Hamels has been almost untouchable against the Reds when playing at the Great American Ball Park. In Cincy, Hamels is 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four regular-season starts. Hamels has also held the Reds to a .169 career average in the eight regular-season starts, which is his lowest average against any team. In Hamels’ last start on Aug. 12, he threw five innings, allowing three runs on six hits and a season-high-tying four walks which ended in a 4-2 loss to the Nationals.

            Despite the Reds’ average record, Cincinnati has a scoring differential of +49 runs, but hasn’t managed to string together the wins. Bailey pitched well Wednesday, allowing three runs and five hits over seven innings but received a no-decision in a 6-5 loss to the Marlins. Bailey has a 4.66 ERA at home, but this number is skewed by two horrible outings (14 ER in 7 IP). He has allowed three earned runs or less in each of the other six home starts.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #7
              Monday, August 29

              Game Score Status Pick Amount

              Florida 0 Top 9 Florida +118 500
              NY Mets 2 Under 8 500

              NY Yankees 0 Bot 0 Baltimore +163 500
              Baltimore 0 Over 9.5 500

              Oakland 0 Bot 0 Oakland +116 500
              Cleveland 0 Over 8.5 500

              Kansas City - 7:05 PM ET Kansas City +155 500
              Detroit - Over 8.5 500

              Tampa Bay - 7:07 PM ET Toronto -147 500
              Toronto - Over 8.5 500

              Florida - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -118 500
              NY Mets - Under 8 500

              Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati +133 500
              Cincinnati - Over 8 500

              Pittsburgh - 8:05 PM ET Houston -128 500
              Houston - Under 8 500

              Minnesota - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota +181 500
              Chi. White Sox - Over 8.5 500

              Colorado - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -155 500
              Arizona - Under 9 500

              San Diego - 10:10 PM ET LA Dodgers -159 500
              LA Dodgers - Over 5.5 500

              LA Angels - 10:10 PM ET LA Angels -121 500
              Seattle - Under 8 500

              Chi. Cubs - 10:15 PM ET Chi. Cubs +220 500
              San Francisco - Under 6.5 500
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment

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