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**StarDust Bum** · 08-17-2011, 06:37 PM

Week 1 Preview: Saints at Packers

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

at GREEN BAY PACKERS

Kickoff: Thursday, September 8, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -4.5, Total: 46

The Packers begin their title defense when they host Super Bowl XLIV champion New Orleans to kick off the 2011 NFL season in Green Bay.

This game will match up two of the league’s most explosive offenses led by elite quarterbacks. While Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees will likely be at the tops of their games, the Packers are better suited to stop (or at least contain) the Saints. New Orleans did little to improve their struggling pass rush, and Rodgers should be able to take advantage of the middling talent in New Orleans’ secondary. Meanwhile Brees will have his hands full against the Packers’ elite pass rush, led by Clay Matthews, and one of the NFL’s top secondaries. Factor in the Packers’ strong play against 2010 playoff teams (7-3 SU and ATS) and the Saints’ 3-6 ATS road mark last year, and the pick is GREEN BAY.

New Orleans added a couple of run-stuffers to its defensive line in free agent DT Aubrayo Franklin (formerly of the 49ers) and first-round DE Cameron Jordan, but starting defensive ends Will Smith and Alex Brown combined for just 7.5 sacks last year. S Malcolm Jenkins is a star and CB Jabari Greer is solid, but the Saints will have a tough time keeping up with the Packers’ diverse group of weapons in the passing game.

Offensively, the Saints may turn more to the ground game this year. They upgraded their backfield with first-round pick Mark Ingram and free agent Darren Sproles. An improved running game could help make up for the potential drop-off in production from WR Marques Colston, who is coming off another major knee surgery. Green Bay was susceptible to the run last year, allowing 4.7 yards per carry (the NFL’s fifth-highest average).

The Packers essentially brought everyone back on offense, and will get a boost from the return of a couple of injured stars: RB Ryan Grant and TE Jermichael Finley. Including the playoffs, Green Bay faced seven teams with winning records to close out 2010 and went 6-1 SU and ATS. Rodgers posted a 112.6 passer rating during that span.

The defense led the NFC in sacks last season (47) and boasts two of the league’s best cornerbacks in Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson, plus a rising star in Sam Shields. They held opponents to a 67.2 passer rating, lowest in the NFL.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-18-2011, 02:27 PM

Week 1 Preview: Colts at Texans

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

at HOUSTON TEXANS

Kickoff: Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -3, Total: 46

The Texans hope to start 2011 the same way they began 2010, with a convincing home win over Indianapolis, when they host the Colts in a Week 1 matchup.

Houston quickly nosedived after last year’s 34-24 win over Indy in Week 1, finishing a disappointing 5-10 SU and 4-10-1 ATS. But they addressed their biggest weakness—the defensive secondary—in free agency, adding cover corner Johnathan Joseph and rangy FS Danieal Manning. They’ll also have a new 3-4 defensive scheme under new coordinator (and former Cowboys head coach) Wade Phillips. Peyton Manning and the Colts dropped their last four games SU (1-3 ATS) against teams that played a 3-4 front last year, and the Texans’ new look helps make HOUSTON the pick to win by a touchdown.

The most intriguing part of Houston’s revamped defense will be 6-foot-6, 280-pound Mario Williams making the move from 4-3 end to 3-4 outside linebacker (his goal is to get his weight down to 265 by the opener). But regardless, Williams’ primary role will be rushing the passer, so he should be fine. Houston is also high on rookie DE J.J. Watt. The draft’s 11th overall pick should start immediately.

Offensively, the Texans will try to run roughshod over Indy, like they did in last year’s opener, when RB Arian Foster rushed for 231 yards and three touchdowns. In two matchups with the Colts last season Foster had 48 carries for 333 yards (6.9 YPC) and four TD.

The Colts signed two rotational linemen to try and bolster their run defense. Former Falcons DE Jamaal Anderson and ex-Bears DT Tommie Harris add some size to an undersized front four, but the run defense will likely be porous again.

Offensively, the healthy returns of TE Dallas Clark and WR Austin Collie should be a boost to a passing game that was surprisingly erratic last year, but Manning is 35 and had offseason neck surgery. He may miss all of training camp, and may not be ready to carry the team early on.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-18-2011, 02:30 PM

Week 1 Preview: Giants at Redskins

NEW YORK GIANTS

at WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Kickoff: Sunday, September 11, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -3.5, Total: 37.5

One of the NFL’s classic rivalries resumes in Week 1 when the Giants visit Washington.

To say New York has dominated the Redskins recently would be an understatement. The Giants are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against the ‘Skins over the past five seasons, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at Washington (where they’ve outscored them by 13.0 PPG, 143-78). Considering the Redskins will be starting either John Beck or Rex Grossman in the opener, this trend should hold true. NEW YORK is the pick.

For better or worse, the Giants kept head coach Tom Coughlin and his staff on for another year. If nothing else, it gives them some stability. QB Eli Manning is coming off a career-high 31 touchdown passes, but also threw 25 interceptions. The loss of two of his security blankets—WR Steve Smith and TE Kevin Boss—doesn’t bode well. But Manning typically plays his best football when the weather is warm in September (89.6 career passer rating in September, highest of any month), and the Giants are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS over the past three Septembers.

The G-Men pretty much kept their defense, which improved under coordinator Perry Fewell last year, intact. DE Osi Umenyiora is reportedly unhappy with his contract and dealing with a knee injury, but it’s not a huge concern for the Giants with second-year DE Jason Pierre-Paul poised for a breakout year.

After the unceremonious benching of Donovan McNabb last season, the Redskins are still searching for an answer at quarterback. As of now, journeyman backup John Beck seems to be the front-runner, ahead of Rex Grossman. After benching McNabb in a Halloween loss in Detroit last year (McNabb would re-gain his job later), the ‘Skins went 2-7 SU and 4-4-1 ATS to finish the year.

Head coach Mike Shanahan has gotten by with mediocre quarterbacks before, but he’s also relying on fumble-prone RB Tim Hightower and injury-prone RB Ryan Torain to carry the load behind Shanahan’s vaunted zone-blocking scheme.

The defense should be slightly improved after a rough transition to coordinator Jim Haslett’s 3-4 alignment, but pass defense will be an issue. Washington needs to replace CB Carlos Rogers, arguably its most talented cover corner (in an admittedly weak group). The Redskins are relying heavily on rookie Ryan Kerrigan, a college defensive end, to make the transition to outside linebacker and improve an anemic pass rush (tied for 25th with 29 sacks in 2011). They did upgrade at free safety with former Ram O.J. Atogwe.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-19-2011, 07:24 PM

Week 1 Preview: Vikings at Chargers

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Kickoff: Sunday, September 11, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: San Diego -8.5, Total: 40.5

Two of 2010’s most disappointing teams will try to kick of 2011 the right way when San Diego hosts Minnesota in Week 1.

The Chargers closed out last season with SU wins in seven of their final nine contests (6-3 ATS). By the end of 2010, they seemed to have sorted out the special teams issues that had cost them dearly early on, and now they’ll get a full season of 2010 holdouts WR Vincent Jackson and LT Marcus McNeill. The Vikings went 3-3 SU and ATS after Leslie Frazier was installed as head coach, but the record looks better than the actual performance. They lost big to the Giants (by 18), Chicago (by 26) and Detroit (by 7) and their wins were unimpressive, beating Buffalo, Washington, then Philadelphia in a fluky snow-out Tuesday game. Before that win in Philly, Minnesota went 0-8 SU and ATS against teams that finished 2010 with winning records, getting outscored 218-104 (14.3 PPG). And several key contributors from that Vikings team are gone. It all adds up to a SAN DIEGO win and cover.

Because of their special teams struggles, the Chargers pulled off the rare feat of missing the playoffs despite finishing first in the league in total offense and total defense. In Week 1, QB Philip Rivers should have his full complement of weapons. Jackson and McNeill are both still in San Diego, All-Pro TE Antonio Gates is as healthy as he’s been in a while, and RB Ryan Mathews finished his rookie season strong after recovering from a high ankle sprain. The Chargers could certainly lead the NFL in total offense again.

Defensively, they lost coordinator Ron Rivera (now the head coach in Carolina), but brought in Greg Manusky, who ran a similar scheme in San Francisco and coached the Chargers’ linebackers from 2002-06. There was some turnover with personnel. ILB Takeo Spikes came over from the 49ers with Manusky and will replace the highly-productive Kevin Burnett (signed with Miami). OLB Larry English, their 2009 first-round pick, is likely to start for the first time, and San Diego added oft-injured former Colts star Bob Sanders to fill their revolving door at strong safety.

The Vikings offense will try to control the clock with RB Adrian Peterson, but the Chargers were top-five in rushing yards allowed per game (93.8) and per carry (3.7) last year.

Minnesota’s biggest addition was QB Donovan McNabb, who is coming off a miserable year in Washington. It’s enough to make you wonder if the 34-year-old was simply a product of Andy Reid’s outstanding system in Philadelphia. McNabb will have little to work with in the passing game, as top outside threat Sidney Rice signed with Seattle, leaving slot receiver Percy Harvin and TE Visanthe Shiancoe as his most reliable options. The Vikes cut ties with long-time LT Bryant McKinnie and replaced him with former Colt Charlie Johnson, who often struggled in Indy, but whose flaws were covered up by Peyton Manning’s ability to get the ball out quickly.

The strength of the Vikings defense, the line, underwent major changes. LDE Ray Edwards signed with Atlanta and will be replaced by Brian Robison. Expect Jared Allen to see even more double teams on the other side. Former Saints DT Remi Ayodele replaced Pat Williams as their main run-stuffer, and All-Pro linemate Kevin Williams is a question mark for the opener. He’s likely to be serving a postponed four-game suspension for a banned substance.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-19-2011, 07:27 PM

Week 1 Preview: Cowboys at Jets

DALLAS COWBOYS

at NEW YORK JETS

Kickoff: Sunday, September 11, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -4, Total: 41

Two of the NFL’s glamour franchises face off on Sunday Night Football when the Jets host Dallas in a Week 1 matchup.

This is one of the toughest games to pick on the Week 1 slate. The Cowboys went 5-3 ATS after Jason Garrett was promoted to head coach last year, but they haven’t played a game with QB Tony Romo since last October, and went 1-5 SU and ATS in his starts. On the other side, the Jets are breaking in a new group of receivers (aside from Santonio Holmes), and they kicked off last year with a dud at home against Baltimore. Despite their strong finish to 2010 (4-2 SU and ATS, including playoffs), the Jets are no sure thing to pick up where they left off. But they are the better team, and better than a four-point spread at home. NEW YORK is the pick.

This will also be a battle of the Ryan brothers: Jets head coach Rex and new Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob. The Dallas secondary is still suspect, but they upgraded at safety by adding Abram Elam, who came from Cleveland with Rob Ryan.

Offensively, the Cowboys will have Romo back for the first time since he broke his collarbone last October. They dropped WR Roy Williams and RB Marion Barber, opening up more opportunities for WR Dez Bryant and RB Felix Jones. They also upgraded at right tackle, with No. 9 overall pick Tyron Smith replacing fading veteran Marc Colombo.

The Jets have talked about opening up the passing game for third-year QB Mark Sanchez, but they’re also breaking in a handful of new receivers. Gone are Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and Brad Smith, and in are 34-year-old Plaxico Burress, who hasn’t played since 2008, and 37-year-old former Raven Derrick Mason. It could take a little while for Sanchez to get on the same page as his new acquisitions. They can fall back on a power running game, this year led by RB Shonn Greene, who is talented but fumble-prone.

Defensively, Rex Ryan will continue to employ exotic blitz schemes in an attempt to generate pressure, but the Jets don’t have many pass-rushing threats. The strength of the defense is the secondary because of CB Darrelle Revis’ ability to take away one side of the field (possibly WR Miles Austin in this game). They are also elite against the run.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-19-2011, 07:28 PM

Week 1 Preview: Steelers at Ravens

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

at BALTIMORE RAVENS

Kickoff: Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -2.5, Total: 36.5

The NFL’s nastiest rivalry resumes early this year, as Baltimore hosts Pittsburgh in a Week 1 showdown. Eight of the past nine meetings between the teams have been decided by seven points or less, and five were decided by a field goal.

Last season, the Steelers took two of three from Baltimore, including both games that QB Ben Roethlisberger played in. Roethlisberger has now won five in a row SU and four of five ATS against the Ravens. He enters 2011 healthy and focused, which is why PITTSBURGH is the pick.

The Ravens underwent major some changes over the offseason. Gone are longtime franchise cornerstones WR Derrick Mason, TE Todd Heap, FB Le’Ron McClain, RB Willis McGahee and NT Kelly Gregg.

The Ravens’ running game should improve with a healthy RB Ray Rice and newly-acquired Ricky Williams running behind FB Vonta Leach, who paved the way for Arian Foster’s monster season in Houston last year. But running the ball will be a challenge against Pittsburgh, who is consistently among the league’s elite run defenses.

Baltimore swung a trade for WR Lee Evans from Buffalo, adding a much-needed deep threat for QB Joe Flacco. He should be an upgrade across from Anquan Boldin. But pass protection is going to be an issue, especially if LT Michael Oher doesn’t make major strides this year. Oher was penalty-prone and overmatched a year ago. His poor play is a big reason why the Steelers sacked Flacco 10 times and had constant pressure on him in their three meetings.

Defensively, the Ravens addressed their struggling secondary by drafting talented, but troubled, CB Jimmy Smith. They’ll turn to second-year space eater Terrence Cody to replace Gregg alongside Haloti Ngata. Overall, this should be a great unit against the run but shaky against the pass, even with a All-Pro FS Ed Reed healthy and newly-acquired SS Bernard Pollard.

The Steelers made few changes on both sides of the ball, but they have talked up a new pass-first identity on offense. Defensively, whether they’re an elite unit again will depend on two of their aging superstars. OLB James Harrison is coming off two offseason back surgeries, a major concern for a 33-year-old. SS Troy Polamalu’s Achilles injury was still lingering during training camp. This unit has struggled to force turnovers when the 30-year-old Polamalu is banged up.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-24-2011, 11:21 PM

Tuesday's List of 13: Looking at some more NFL trends.......

13) Philadelphia Eagles lost four of last five home openers, but scored 37-38-35 points in winning two of last three road openers…….Washington Redskins are 8-1 in last nine home openers, with seven of last eight staying under total.

12) Over is 10-1 in Giants’ last 11 road openers, with an average total of 54.9. big Blue scored 30+ points in four of last five road openers, but they haven’t won in Week 1 on road since 1999 in Tampa, losing three times since.

11) Vikings are 3-7 vs spread as a favorite in their last ten home openers; under is 16-6-1 in their last 23 home openers.

10) Chargers always seem to get off to a slow start; they’re 5-7 in last 12 home openers, with seven of last eight going over total.

9) New England’s first road game has been against the Jets in the Swamp five years in a row and eight of last 12, but not this year; Pats don’t visit New Jersey until Week 10 this year- they host the Jets in Week 5.

8) Under is 14-4 in Tampa Bay’s last 18 road openers, with Buccaneers covering one of last five. Under is 12-2 in Tennessee’s last 14 road openers, with Titans covering the last four.

7) Raiders haven’t been 1-0 since 2002, when they beat Seattle; over is 9-3 in Raiders’ last dozen road openers. Oakland covered once in their last eight home openers.

6) New Orleans is 10-3 in its last 13 home openers, 8-3 in its last 11 road openers; under is 10-4 in their last 14 home openers.

5) 49ers covered five of last seven road openers; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight. Niners are 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight home openers, with four of last five staying under the total.

4) Rams lost their last four home openers, scoring 13-13-17-13 points; they’ve lost their last nine road openers (1-8 vs spread). Eight of their last ten road openers stayed under the total.

3) Over the last 19 years, Jets are 5-14 in their first home game, 3-16 vs spread, but they’ve covered 11 of last 14 road openers, with 13 of last 20 staying under total.

2) Steelers won their last eight home openers, covering five of last six; five of their last six road openers stayed under the total.

1) Under is 8-1-1 in Seattle’s last ten home openers, 19-4 in their last 23 road openers. Seahawks won/covered seven of last eight home openers but are 0-6 vs spread in last six road openers, losing last four (last three by 24-13-17 points).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2011, 06:43 PM

Week 1 Preview: Bills at Chiefs

BUFFALO BILLS

at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Kickoff: Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Kansas City -6.5, Total: 40.5

The Chiefs are on a quest to prove 2010 was no fluke, and their first step is the 2011 season opener, at home against Buffalo.

Kansas City rode a weak schedule to the playoffs last year. They played just four teams who finished with a winning record, going 1-3 SU and ATS while getting outscored 94-37 in those games. On top of that, the Chiefs were far from impressive in a Week 8 home win over the Bills. K.C. needed overtime in the 13-10 win, and Buffalo K Rian Lindell missed a potential winner from 53 yards in OT. While the Chiefs are still the better team, they’re giving too many points, especially considering their subpar passing game. BUFFALO is the pick.

In their meeting last year, RB Jamaal Charles led a monster ground effort for the Chiefs, going for 177 of their 274 rushing yards. But Buffalo made moves to improve its porous run defense, adding No. 3 overall pick Marcell Dareus, a run-stuffing DE, and former Packers ILB Nick Barnett. However, the Bills lost two of the top-five tacklers in the NFL in LB Paul Posluszny and Donte Whitner.

While the Chiefs should continue to have success on the ground, their passing game remains a major question mark. QB Matt Cassel’s final stat line got a boost from a midseason hot streak (which included a legendary garbage-time performance in a blowout loss to Denver), but he was exposed down the stretch, posting a 65.3 passer rating in December/January. That included an embarrassing 9-for-18, three-INT day in their playoff loss to Baltimore. K.C. tried to upgrade Cassel’s weapons to take attention away from All-Pro WR Dwayne Bowe, but its moves may have backfired. Free agent WR Steve Breaston has been hobbled since offseason knee surgery, and first-round pick WR Jon Baldwin broke his wrist in a training camp fight with RB Thomas Jones. Second-year TE Tony Moeaki is also coming back from offseason knee surgery.

The Bills will be more versed in Chan Gailey’s spread offense in year two. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick showed a good grasp of the system, throwing for exactly 3,000 yards and 23 TD in 13 starts. The Bills went 7-4-1 ATS with Fitzpatrick under center. But Fitzpatrick also threw 15 INT, and Buffalo still has one of the NFL’s worst pass-protecting lines. The Bills will have their hands full with OLB Tamba Hali. Long-time No. 1 WR Lee Evans was traded to Baltimore. Former Jets multi-purpose threat Brad Smith was added to the receiving corps, but top WR Steve Johnson will get more attention from a solid Chiefs secondary.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2011, 06:51 PM

Week 1 Preview: Falcons at Bears

ATLANTA FALCONS

at CHICAGO BEARS

Kickoff: Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -2.5, Total: 40.5

The NFC’s top two teams during last year’s regular season kick off 2011 when Atlanta visits Chicago for a Week 1 matchup.

The Falcons were road warriors a year ago (6-2 SU and ATS away from Atlanta), but they were also recipients of some luck. They had the league’s lowest opponent field goal percentage during the regular season (65.2%) and were one of four teams to have opponents rack up more than 1,000 penalty yards against them (1,003, including a league-high 522 in road games). They were 1-2 SU and ATS with a -17 point differential in three road games against 2010 playoff teams last year. Chicago was 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS against 2010 playoff teams during last year’s regular season, and the slow track at Soldier Field should help neutralize the speed in Atlanta’s receiving corps. The pick here is home underdog CHICAGO.

Atlanta made two major offseason moves, one on either side of the ball. The team signed former Vikings DE Ray Edwards (8 sacks in 14 games last year) to a big-money deal, giving it a pass-rushing complement to John Abraham in an attempt to upgrade a mediocre pass rush.

They also traded a boatload of draft picks to get WR Julio Jones sixth overall in the draft. Jones brings the same run-blocking ability as departed starter Michael Jenkins, but has far more upside as a receiver. The Falcons passing game could be far more explosive if Jones becomes a threat opposite Roddy White, something Jenkins never became and something aging TE Tony Gonzalez can longer be. It could be especially key considering 29-year-old RB Michael Turner is unlikely to have success running the ball against a Bears defense that allowed an NFC-low 90.1 rushing yards per game in 2010.

Chicago’s biggest issue last year was the passing offense. QB Jay Cutler was his usual erratic self in his first year under offensive coordinator Mike Martz, but he got little help from arguably the NFL’s worst offensive line and receiving corps. The Bears added a couple of flailing ex-Cowboy receivers in Roy Williams and Sam Hurd, as well as drafting mauling RT Gabe Carimi with their first-round pick, in an attempt to improve. Williams is familiar with Martz’s offense from their time in Detroit together. Chicago also added aging RB Marion Barber as a complement to Matt Forte in the backfield.

The Bears bring back the core of their defense, which was one of the NFL’s best last year, but they must replace Danieal Manning in the secondary. Manning, who played corner at times in Chicago, became one of the league’s elite safeties in coverage and signed with Houston in free agency. Second-year safety Major Wright will likely replace him. He’ll be tested right off the bat against a Falcons passing attack that will be more potent than a year ago.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2011, 06:53 PM

Week 1 Preview: Saints at Packers

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

at GREEN BAY PACKERS

Kickoff: Thursday, September 8, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -4.5, Total: 46

The Packers begin their title defense when they host Super Bowl XLIV champion New Orleans to kick off the 2011 NFL season in Green Bay.

This game will match up two of the league’s most explosive offenses led by elite quarterbacks. While Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees will likely be at the tops of their games, the Packers are better suited to stop (or at least contain) the Saints. New Orleans did little to improve its struggling pass rush, and Rodgers should be able to take advantage of the middling talent in New Orleans’ secondary. Meanwhile Brees will have his hands full against Green Bay's elite pass rush, led by Clay Matthews, and one of the NFL’s top secondaries. Factor in the Packers’ strong play against 2010 playoff teams (7-3 SU and ATS) and the Saints’ 3-6 ATS road mark last year, and the pick is GREEN BAY.

New Orleans added a couple of run-stuffers to its defensive line in free agent DT Aubrayo Franklin (formerly of the 49ers) and first-round DE Cameron Jordan, but starting defensive ends Will Smith and Alex Brown combined for just 7.5 sacks last year. S Malcolm Jenkins is a star and CB Jabari Greer is solid, but the Saints will have a tough time keeping up with the Packers’ diverse group of weapons in the passing game.

Offensively, the Saints may turn more to the ground game this year. They upgraded their backfield with first-round pick Mark Ingram and free agent Darren Sproles. An improved running game could help make up for the potential drop-off in production from WR Marques Colston, who is coming off another major knee surgery. Green Bay was susceptible to the run last year, allowing 4.7 yards per carry (the NFL’s fifth-highest average).

The Packers essentially brought everyone back on offense, and will get a boost from the return of a couple of injured stars: RB Ryan Grant and TE Jermichael Finley. Including the playoffs, Green Bay faced seven teams with winning records to close out 2010 and went 6-1 SU and ATS. Rodgers posted a 112.6 passer rating during that span.

The defense led the NFC in sacks last season (47) and boasts two of the league’s best cornerbacks in Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson, plus a rising star in Sam Shields. They held opponents to a 67.2 passer rating, lowest in the NFL.

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Week # 1 NFL Matchup Previews !!

Week # 1 NFL Matchup Previews !!

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