NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (9/1 - 9/5)

[Udog]

NCAAF


Sunday, September 4

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What bettors need to know: Marshall at West Virginia
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Marshall Thundering Herd at West Virginia Mountaineers (-23.5, 55.5)

THE STORY: West Virginia has a new coach who's known for gun-slinging offense. Marshall has a second-year coach who played for WVU and goes by "Doc" Holliday. Last year the teams went to overtime in what was their closest game since 1911. What more can you ask for from this intrastate rivalry in wild West Virginia? To be fair, last season's 24-21 Mountaineers triumph was only the programs' 10th meeting all-time, and WVU has won all of them, but still, it sounds like a fun opening fight.

TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (2010: 9-4, 5-2 Big East): The Mountaineers have had their share of success in the post-Rich Rodriguez era, but only to a point. They've posted three consecutive 5-2 conference marks, but have been unable to close with bowl victories the past two seasons. WVU won its last four regular-season games in 2010, then flamed out against North Carolina State in a 23-7 Champs Sports Bowl defeat.

Bill Stewart was supposed to continue at the helm for this season, with Dana Holgorsen hired as his offensive coordinator and coach-in-waiting, but Stewart was forced out in June and Holgorsen took over. The preseason Big East favorites return junior QB Geno Smith, whose 24 TD passes last year (against only seven picks) were second-most in school history. Behind Smith, as many as seven running backs and fullbacks could see action in the opener, Holgorsen has said. Top receiver junior Tavon Austin caught 58 passes for 787 yards and eight TDs last year.

ABOUT MARSHALL (2010: 5-7, 4-4 C-USA): John "Doc" Holliday was on staff at WVU from 1979 to 1999, and was a candidate to succeed Rodriguez but wound up serving under Stewart as an associate coach. After suffering through a 1-6 start to his first head coaching season, the Thundering Herd rebounded to win four of their final five games.

Defense spurred the turnaround; Marshall allowed 35.6 points allowed over its first seven games and just 19.2 the last five. Marshall returns nine defensive starters. Senior end Vinny Curry (94 tackles, 12 sacks) is the C-USA preseason Defensive Player of the Year and one of four team captains, including two more senior defenders, safety Omar Brown and linebacker Tyson Gale. Senior left tackle Ryan Tillman is the other captain.

LINE MOVES: WVU opened as a 21.5-point home favorite and was bet up as high as -23.5. The totaled opened at 51 points and has climbed to as high as 56.5 with action on the Over.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Holgorsen has led prolific offenses at Oklahoma State, Houston and Texas Tech in recent years. Last season the Cowboys ranked third in total offense, jumping from 61st the previous year without Holgorsen, and OSU wide receiver Justin Blackmon garnered the Biletnikoff Award.

2. Holliday played 28 freshmen last season, with only Florida (31) putting more freshmen on the field at the FBS level.

3. West Virginia won back-to-back meetings in 1915 and 1923 by a combined 173-6 (92-6 and 81-0), and before last season's 24-21 OT victory the closest game was the first, a 17-15 Mountaineers win in 1911.

TRENDS:

- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Thundering Herd are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 road games.
- Mountaineers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites of 10.5 or greater.
- Under is 11-5 in Thundering Herd's last 16 road games.
- Under is 6-1 in Mountaineers' last seven games as favorites.

PREDICTION: West Virginia 55, Marshall 20 -- Holgorsen could have fun testing his offensive scheme and range of contributors in the opener. Plus the Mountaineers get to avenge their surprising loss to the Thundering Herd on the basketball court back in January.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Sunday, September 4

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Game of the day: SMU at Texas A&M
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SMU Mustangs at Texas A&M Aggies (-15.5, 56.5)

THE STORY: The biggest, most important, zaniest season in a long time begins at Texas A&M, which enters the season ranked ninth and is expected to challenge No. 1 Oklahoma for the Big 12 Conference championship.

It may be the Aggies’ last shot at it, too, as Texas A&M is expected to leave the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference. So it is fitting the Aggies begin the season against Southern Methodist, a former rival from the old Southwest Conference, which Texas A&M also left behind.

TV: FS Southwest.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (9-4 in 2010): A mid-season quarterback change made all the difference for the Aggies last season. Fortunately, they didn’t have to make a change this fall as Ryan Tannehill returns after throwing for 1,600 yards and 13 touchdowns in six starts last season, as does leading receiver Jeff Fuller.

ABOUT SMU (7-7 in 2010): Two decades of clouds have finally broken for the Mustangs, who played in their second bowl game in a row last season. SMU would love to get a call from the Big 12 if Texas A&M leaves, so this is an opportunity for the kind of win that would help the Mustang’s argument.

LINE MOVES: Texas A&M opened as low as -15 and has stayed around that number for the most part. The total has also remained steady, opening at 56 points and being bet up to 57.5 before settling at 56.5.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. SMU’s last game against a Big 12 team was a one-touchdown loss at Texas Tech last season. Its last game against Texas A&M was a 66-8 loss in 2005.

2. Texas A&M hasn’t lost to SMU since 1984 and is 9-0-1 in the last 10 meetings.

3. The Aggies begin the season in the top 10 for the first time since 1999, the year after they won the Big 12 championship.

TRENDS:

- Mustangs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.
- Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Mustangs' last 12 games as road underdogs.
- Under is 5-1 in Aggies' last six home games.

PREDICTION: Texas A&M 38, SMU 20 - The Tannehill-to-Fuller connection is too much for most teams, and SMU is no different. The Mustangs aren’t a pushover anymore, but the Aggies still have plenty to prove, even if they are in the top 10.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Sunday, September 5

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Miami Hurricanes at Maryland Terrapins: What bettors need to know
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Miami Hurricanes at Maryland Terrapins (-4, 46.5)

THE STORY: Miami will be without six starters and two reserves when it opens at Maryland on Monday. Quarterback Jacory Harris, linebacker Sean Spence, wideout Travis Benjamin and five others were suspended by the NCAA from one to six games for receiving impermissible benefits from former booster/convicted felon Nevin Shapiro.

The investigation has overshadowed the Miami coaching debut of Al Golden, formerly of Temple, and the Maryland coaching debut of Randy Edsall, formerly of UConn. With the senior Harris ineligible, dual-threat sophomore Stephen Morris will start at quarterback. Morris, who runs a 4.6 forty, nearly beat out Harris in camp.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Maryland -4

ABOUT MARYLAND (2010: 9-4, 5-3 ACC): Edsall has a ton of offensive talent to work with, led by QB Danny O’Brien (2,438 yards, 22 TDs, 8 INTs), and RBs Davin Meggett (720 yards) and D.J. Adams (11 TDs). The Terps ranked second in the ACC in scoring last season (32.2 points) and should be near the top again. LB Kenny Tate leads seven returning starters on defense.

ABOUT MIAMI (2010: 7-6, 5-3 ACC): Harris and Morris split first-string reps during camp. Morris played extensively at the end of last season, throwing for 1,240 yards in six games with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions. Due to the suspensions, Golden is listing eight true freshmen and five redshirt freshmen on his two-deep depth chart.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Edsall finished 8-5 or better in his last four seasons at UConn.

2. Miami's suspended players are not allowed to travel to the game but can continue practicing with the team.

3. Miami won last year’s meeting 26-20 in Coral Gables, Fla., on a last-minute TD throw from Morris.

TRENDS

The Hurricanes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

The Terrapins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.

The under is 6-1-1 in the 'Canes' last eight games.

LINE MOVEMENT

Oddsmakers opened this game with the visiting Hurricanes favored by 6 to 5.5 points. The game was taken off the board following the news of Miami's player suspensions. Oddsmakers re-opened with the Terrapins favored by 3.5 points and most shops have moved up to Maryland -4.


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[Udog]

College football odds: Week 2 opening line report

Week 1 of the college football season is nearly in the books, but people are still mourning in Eugene and Athens while others in Boise are still partying.

Time to take a look at next week's betting board. Every week during the college football season, we analyze how the pros set the lines.

Oklahoma State (-13) vs. Arizona

Two teams that went relatively untested vs. cupcakes at home battle on Thursday. But Arizona has never been one to shy away from scheduling up -- on the road -- and this is a perfect example.

Oklahoma State -- surprise, surprise -- has plenty of firepower and showed it vs. Louisiana Lafayette. Brandon Weeden threw for 390 yards and three scores, and Quinn Sharp nailed four field goals in a 61-34 win. And it’s that kind of firepower that has the important guys in Las Vegas leaning toward the Cowboys.

“Oklahoma State can put a lot of points on the board, but they can give up a few, too. That’s their game, and it works for them,” John Avello of the Wynn Hotel Sportsbook told ***********. “You have to go close to two touchdowns. OSU is at home, and with Arizona, I expect an average year.”

Arizona State (-5) vs. Missouri

A 17-6 win over Miami, Ohio at home isn’t exactly the way Missouri wanted to tune up for this lengthy road trip. The Tigers were sloppy and only gained 21 more yards than the RedHawks did.

So, there’s not a lot of confidence from the pros, as Missouri packs its bags for Tempe. Especially after the Sun Devils danced all over UC Davis, 48-14.

“Arizona State looked good in the opener, went 6-6 last year, and has everyone coming back,” Avello said. “I still expect Missouri to have a big season, and they usually play well in this type of a game. But they have to show it first.”

Wisconsin (-16) vs. Oregon State

It was a tough week for the Beaver State. But you can forgive Oregon for losing to LSU, 40-27. For Oregon State, a 29-28 loser to Sacramento State? Different story.

Listen, the Beavers have plenty of time to turn it around. It’s not like they were in the national title hunt, and needed to stay undefeated. And that’s a good thing, because a trip to Wisconsin is not what the doctor ordered. As such, the books have no choice but to inflate the Badgers.

“But you have to be careful,” Avello said. “Riley usually gets a bunch out of his team, and Oregon State has a way of playing their best ball on the road. So I went with 16, and then I’ll see where the players push me on this one.”

Mississippi State (-1) at Auburn

The Tigers pulled off a great escape vs. Utah State, 42-38, but don’t let it fool you. Auburn has serious issues on defense, and it’s only going to get tougher. On the other hand, Mississippi State couldn’t have done much more vs. Memphis, whipping the Tigers, 59-14.

So with two programs seemingly headed in different directions, the line is low, and it’s up to the midweek sharp players to see where it goes.

“If you want to look at history, Auburn plays well in SEC openers, but this will be tough,” Avello said. “Memphis was not a good indication, it wasn’t close. But Mississippi State was 9-4 last year, and they have a bunch coming back on defense.”

Alabama (-11) at Penn State

A few weeks from now, it’ll probably be clear that this is not a vintage Penn State team. Quarterback play is iffy, the offensive line is in flux, Joe Paterno’s coaching from the press box, and the schedule is a bear.

The Nittany Lions whacked Indiana State, 41-7, but the party’s over. The Crimson Tide will probably be the fastest, fiercest defense Paterno’s crew sees all year.

“Alabama has to be a heavy favorite,” Avello said. “They looked good on paper, they looked good on the field. Playing at Penn State is never an easy task. But Alabama looks too good.”

Oregon (-21.5) vs. Nevada

It figured to be a difficult opener for new-look Nevada anyway, without departed quarterback Colin Kaepernick. But now that the Ducks are 0-1 and have lost two in a row? Look out.

Oregon showed it can be had on defense, vs. LSU, so that might help the Wolf Pack. But, in the end, the speed and athleticism that the Ducks still have, plus the bounceback factor, made this a large one.

“The quarterback certainly made a difference, and that will be a very big loss for Nevada,” Avello said. “But the team is well coached and you have to beware. That said, they’re going to catch a team that’s going to be a little mad. And Oregon is just so tough at home anyway.”

South Carolina (-1.5) at Georgia

The talent, depth, and standings all say that South Carolina is the team to beat. The Gamecocks rallied to defeat East Carolina, 56-37, and showed the nation that maybe, just maybe, all the hype surrounding Steve Spurrier’s squad is deserved.

But home teams in the SEC always attract some value, and now it’s abundantly clear that the Bulldogs are playing for coach Mark Richt’s future, as well.

“South Carolina woke up in the second half vs. East Carolina,” Avello said. “But Georgia is a much-improved team, it may just take a while for you to see that. They just ran into a great Boise State team. I still expect them to be tough here.”

Texas (-5) vs. BYU

Hard to believe the Longhorns are under the radar. Unranked to begin, Texas hammered Rice, 34-9, and will welcome BYU to its second straight road game.

The Cougars, who seem comfortable as independents, rallied to dodge Ole Miss, 14-13, but the Longhorns are not the Rebels. There’s a ways to go in Austin, clearly, but Texas isn’t about to be an underdog at home just yet.

“BYU was lucky to get that win vs. Ole Miss, but they did play well on defense,” Avello said. “Texas is coming off a good outing, but they were supposed to. We’ll see how they play against a tougher opponent here.”

Southern Cal (-6.5) vs. Utah

As the Big Ten season rolls on -- and Minnesota struggles, as expected -- USC’s 19-17 escape vs. the Gophers will probably look less impressive. But as for now, it’s all the books have to go on. So, advantage USC.

And the Utes might find the sledding tough in the Pac-12 anyway, especially after a ho-hum win over Montana State, 27-10.

“Minnesota played USC so tough. I think Utah is OK, but it’s hard to say, so this one was tough,” Avello said. “Utah usually plays well on the road, so I can’t lay too much. USC is going to be a good team soon, just not this year.”

Notre Dame (-1.5) at Michigan

It looked like this patented, early-season matchup might have a little juice to it when the schedule first came out, didn’t it? Two still-new coaches -- one in his first year, the other in his second -- two programs on the way back, two fan bases that feel they’ve paid enough dues. It had all the makings.

Well, it still has intrigue. But that’s due to the public now waiting to see if the Irish fall to 0-2 in a season that had so much promise. But be careful. Notre Dame moved the ball well vs. South Florida. If they limit turnovers, this week could be a different story.

“They played awful. Coach (Brian Kelly) was really angry and I expect him to stay angry this week in practice,” Avello said. “That’s why I like Notre Dame here. I really think they can bounce back.”