The Bum's Friday's Best Bets MLB-WNBA-NFL-CFL !

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Detroit Tigers At Cleveland Indians MLB Betting Preview

The Cleveland Indians host division rival Detroit Tigers in the third and final game of their series this Thursday evening.

Thursday’s game starts at 4:05 p.m. (PT) at Progressive Field as AL Cy Young contender Justin Verlander takes on Fausto Carmona.

With the AL Central still up for grabs, this series is critical for both teams. The Indians topped the Tigers 3-2 with a 14th inning win in the series opener Tuesday night, narrowing Detroit’s lead over the Indians down to three games.

Detroit (61-54) entered Wednesday’s action 5-3 over their last eight games (+1.80 units). The Tigers shuffled up their pitching staff to make sure that Justin Verlander would be available to take the mound in each of their remaining series against Cleveland.

Justin Verlander (16-5, 2.30 ERA) is tied with CC Sabathia for the major league lead of 16 wins, and has been a money machine for bettors this season. In his last 15 trips to the mount, Detroit is 13-2 (+9.85 units).

Verlander has had mixed results over the course of his career against Cleveland (11-11 with a 4.82 ERA), but was masterful in his only start against them this season, pitching a complete game shutout with 12 strikeouts back on June 14.

Cleveland (57-56) has cooled off considerably since their hot 30-15 start, going just 27-41 since then. But that didn’t stop the Indians from being buyers at the trade deadline, adding Ubaldo Jimenez and Kosuke Fukudome to try to make a late push at winning the AL Central.

Fausto Carmona (5-11, 5.19 ERA) has had his share of struggles this season, but has actually pitched fairly well of late with a 2.60 ERA in his last five starts. The Indians are 4-1 (+4.32 units) over that stretch.

Carmona won in his only game against Detroit this season, giving up two earned runs over five innings on June 15. He is 8-4 all time against the Tigers with a 3.48 ERA.

Cleveland’s extra-innings win Tuesday night gave them a 5-2 series lead over the Tigers in the seven games they’d played heading into Wednesday. The ‘under’ had a slight edge at 4-3.

The total has gone ‘under’ in Detroit’s last five games, and in 11 of their last 16 on the road. The total has also gone ‘under’ in nine of Cleveland’s last 10 at home.

Detroit is 28-29 on the road this season (+0.10 units) and Cleveland is 30-24 (+5.37 units) at home. Cleveland won their first four home games against Detroit this season.

Weather reports indicate a nice sunny day in Cleveland on Thursday with game-time temps in the low-70s.

Plate duty falls to Mark Carlson for the series ender with home teams just 8-14 in his previous assignments. The 'over' has a small 11-8-3 advantage.

Detroit will head to Baltimore for the weekend, the final leg of their 9-game road trip. The Indians will remain at home to host the Minnesota Twins.

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San Francisco Giants At Florida Marlins MLB Betting Preview

Both teams will be looking to break out of slumps Friday night when the San Francisco Giants visit the Florida Marlins in the opener of their three-game series. Florida has lost seven straight games (-7.15 units) and San Francisco has lost 10 of its last 13 (-9.50 units). Something has to give in this weekend series.

Right-handers Matt Cain and Ricky Nolasco hit the mound for Game 1 at Sun Life Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 4:10 p.m. (PT).

All of the pressure is on the Giants, who are jostling for the lead in the NL West standings and trying to defend their world title; the Marlins are only playing for pride.

San Francisco (64-54) has lost four straight series, and with their loss last night to Pittsburgh and Arizona’s win over Houston, the Diamondbacks took a half-game lead in the NL West. There is still plenty of time for San Francisco to right the ship, but they can’t keep letting winnable series (like this one) slip away.

Matt Cain (9-8, 3.00 ERA) took the hard-luck loss in his last trip out to the mound, giving up just one earned run over eight innings with eight strikeouts but coming away with the loss anyway. Lack of run support is par for the course for Cain; in his 24 starts this season, the Giants have scored over three runs only seven times. Not surprisingly, they are 7-0 in those games.

Cain is 3-1 in eight career starts against Florida with a tidy 3.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The one loss came this season on May 24, when he gave up four runs over six innings and was bested by Ricky Nolasco.

Florida (55-62) has been an incredibly streaky team this year. This seven-game losing streak comes at the heels of a three game winning streak. Entering Thursday 13.5 games behind in the Wild Card race, the Marlins will have to start stringing wins together now to keep their ultra-slim playoff hopes alive.

Ricky Nolasco (8-8, 3.86 ERA) has been sharp of late, allowing two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. The Marlins are just 4-4 over that stretch (-0.40 units), letting some quality starts go to waste due to lack of run support.

Nolasco has dominated San Francisco in five career starts (despite just a 3-2 record), posting a 1.72 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP against them. In his win over Matt Cain on May 24, he allowed just one run over 8 1/3 innings.

Florida swept the three-game series these two teams played in late May in San Francisco. The total went ‘under’ in two of the three games.

The Marlins have struggled at home with a record of just 24-39 (-21.51 units). San Francisco is 29-29 (+0.22 units) on the road.

Hanley Ramirez (shoulder injury) is out for Florida, and Carlos Beltran (wrist) is doubtful for San Francisco.

The weather Friday is expected to be hot with a chance of thunderstorms. Saturday’s projected starters are Tim Lincecum and Javier Vazquez.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Visit Surging Milwaukee Brewers

The division-leading Milwaukee Brewers will play host to the collapsing Pittsburgh Pirates in the first game of their three-game series Friday night.

Scheduled start time for this division showdown is 5:05 p.m. (PT). The Pirates will be throwing left-hander Paul Maholm (6-12, 3.54), who has not won a start since July 10. The Brewers were originally scheduled to send their own lefty Chris Narveson to the mound, but a cut on his left thumb that required eight stitches has sent him to the DL. Taking his place will be ace Zack Greinke (10-4, 4.21), who was originally slated for Saturday.

The Pirates travel to Milwaukee more than 10 games out of first place in the National League Central standings with just less than 50 days left in the regular season. Pittsburgh was swept by Milwaukee back in May at Miller Park, where the Brewers were listed between -150 and -170 in all three of their home wins.

Pittsburgh is 9-17 since the all-star break and now begin a stretch of six straight series against division opponents. The Pirates will host the Cardinals, Reds and Brewers following this series before road games at St. Louis and Houston.

The Brewers on the other hand have started the second half of the season on an absolute tear with a record of 18-7 and two home series against the Pirates and Dodgers ahead of them.

No team in baseball has had more trouble picking up victories in the state of Wisconsin than the Pittsburgh Pirates. Going into this series with the Brewers, the Pirates are 8-43 in their last 51 meetings in Miller Park and 11-41 in their last 52 meetings overall.

The Pirates are a dismal 7-17 as a team this season when Maholm starts a game, and 0-5 in their last five games with Maholm on the mound. To make things even worse for Pittsburgh, three of those five starts for Maholm came against the Cubs, Padres and Astros, three of the NL's worst.

Not only has Maholm struggled against some of the worst offenses in baseball this season, but he is also 1-7 in his last eight road starts versus the Brewers and 3-12 in his last 15 starts overall.

There is no team in baseball right now that is hotter than the Milwaukee Brewers who have taken full control of the National League Central with 13 wins in their last 14 entering Thursday's series finale in St. Louis.

Greinke will be moving up a day but still pitching on his usual four days of rest after last throwing Sunday in Houston when he helped the Brewers to a series sweep of the Astros. The right-hander has won his last three starts, and Milwaukee is 5-1 in his last six assignments. Nine starts at Miller Park this season have yielded a 7-0 record for Greinke and 9-0 mark for Milwaukee.

Pittsburgh first baseman Derrek Lee is questionable for this game against the Brewers with recurring soreness in his left hand. Lee was injured Aug. 3 when he was hit by a pitch against the Chicago Cubs.

Lee is not the only Pirate to be hindered by injuries at the moment. Key contributors Chase d’Arnaud, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata and Evan Meek are currently on the disabled list.

The forecast for Friday night at Miller Park is scattered thunderstorms, with a temperature of around 64 degrees by first pitch

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Price And Rays Battle Sabathia, NY Yankees

Another key AL series this weekend is the Angels heading to Toronto on a 2-game losing skid to meet the Blue Jays.It's difficult to find a more compelling pitching matchup on Friday than the clash between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees. The division rivals meet in the Bronx somewhat distant cousins in the AL East, each chasing the Boston Red Sox entering weekend action.

Tampa Bay certainly doesn't have to win out to make the playoffs, but the Rays do have to win the vast majority of their remaining 18 games vs. the Red Sox and Yankees to play on in October. Joe Maddon and his crew begin a huge 6-game road trip through New York and Boston behind lefty David Price (12-12, 3.89).

Joe Girardi counters with his southpaw ace as well in the 4:05 p.m. (PT) first pitch on Friday. CC Sabathia (18-7, 2.81) comes off a horrible outing against the Red Sox and is the 175 MLB betting favorite in this duel. Friday's scoreboard number is eight runs and shaded to the 'under.'

The Rays begin play Friday 8.5-games behind the Yankees in the standings. Having a realistic shot at October baseball means winning at least 12 of the 18 games left against New York and Boston.

Tampa Bay posted a 4-1 win vs. the Royals Thursday afternoon to complete a 4-game sweep and give the Rays a 7-3 record on their 10-game homestand as they enter this crucial road trip.

Price has stumbled since the end of June with the Rays losing his last four starts and six of the last seven. Included in that span was a no-decision here at Yankee Stadium on July 9, a game New York won 5-4.

He also didn't figure into the decision on May 16 when Price faced the Yanks at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay rallied to win that contest 6-5, closing as 145 home chalk. Price lasted just five innings in each of those two starts, allowing nine runs combined.

New York opened a 6-game homestand earlier this week and took two of three from the Angels to move within a game of Boston.

Sabathia has dropped six games this season, four to the Red Sox and one each to the Rays and Tigers. He certainly pitched well enough to win the one defeat to Tampa Bay, falling 2-1 at Tropicana Field on July 21. Sabathia twirled a shutout here against the Rays 11 days before that, limiting the TB lineup to four hits while striking out nine.

The Rays had been a bit of a thorn in Sabathia's ample side coming into this season. The Yankees dropped three of his five assignments against them in 2010 and were just 3-6 on the hill vs. Tampa with Sabathia pitching before the season started.

Both times Sabathia has faced the Rays this season, James Shields has been the opposing starter. Price has taken him on four times previously and the Rays have won each time. Only once in the three collisions has it been a real pitching duel, with the 'over' cashing three of the four meetings.

New York owns a 5-4 advantage in head-to-head meetings this season. Two of the three played at Yankee Stadium have gone to the home team, with the 'under' also 2-1 in those games.

It should be a great night for baseball in the Bronx with the weatherman forecasting clear skies and a first-pitch temp in the upper-70s.

The series continues Saturday with a matchup of young right-handers, Jeremy Hellickson slated for the Rays against New York's Phil Hughes.

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Diamond Trends - Friday

August 12, 2011


SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Phillies are 15-0 since April 12, 2010 as a home 200+ favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1500.



OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Athletics are 10-0-1 OU since April 27, 2010 as a dog after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $1000 when playing the over.



STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Giants are 0-13 OU since August 13, 2007 when Matt Cain starts as a road favorite after a quality start at home for a net profit of $1300 when playing the under.



MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


The Rays are 0-17 (-2.7 rpg) since 2004 as a road dog of more than 130 when they lost by one run in their starter’s last start and that starter had a WHIP of at least 1.35.



TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Dodgers are 7-0 since April 15, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $700.

The Angels are 0-6-2 OU since May 19, 2010 on the road when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start after a loss for a net profit of $600 when playing the under.

The Cardinals are 6-0 OU since May 28, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing the over.

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Around the Horn - Friday

August 11, 2011


NATIONAL LEAGUE


Washington at Philadelphia - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hernandez (6-11, 4.41 ERA) 6-4 L10 3-6 L9 away vs division
Hamels (13-6, 2.53 ERA) 12-1 L13 15-6 home vs division

Nationals lost to Cubs, 4-3 on Thursday
Phillies beat Dodgers, 9-8 on Wednesday

San Francisco at Florida - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Cain (9-8, 3.00 ERA) 3-7 L10 13-5 L18 off home loss
Nolasco (8-8, 3.86 ERA) 0-7 L7 2-9 L11 on Fridays

Giants lost to Pirates, 9-2 on Wednesday
Marlins lost to Braves, 6-2 on Wednesday

San Diego at Cincinnati - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Latos (6-11, 3.87 ERA) 6-2 L8 6-3 L9 off away win
Arroyo (7-9, 5.48 ERA) 3-5 L8 3-8 L11 off home win

Padres beat Mets, 3-2 on Thursday
Reds beat Rockies, 3-2 on Thursday

Chicago at Atlanta - 7:40 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Zambrano (9-6, 4.46 ERA) 9-2 L11 OVER 6-1 L7 away Game 1's
Minor (1-2, 4.85 ERA) 6-1 L7 UNDER 9-1 L10 home Game 1's

Cubs beat Nationals, 4-3 on Thursday
Braves beat Marlins, 6-2 on Wednesday

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee - 8:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Maholm (6-12, 3.54 ERA) 2-11 L13 2-7 L9 away off win
Greinke (10-4, 4.21 ERA) 13-2 L15 22-6 home vs division

Pirates beat Giants, 9-2 on Wednesday
Brewers lost to Cardinals, 5-2 on Thursday

Colorado at St. Louis - 8:15 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Cook (2-6, 5.05 ERA) 4-6 L10 4-11 L15 away off loss
Lohse (9-7, 3.45 ERA) 6-3 L9 OVER 6-3 L9 on Fridays

Rockies lost to Reds, 3-2 on Thursday
Cardinals beat Brewers, 5-2 on Thursday

N.Y. Mets at Arizona - 9:40 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Gee (10-3, 3.93 ERA) 3-8 L11 OVER 12-6 on Fridays
Kennedy (14-3, 3.20 ERA) 7-4 L11 2-7 L9 home Game 1's

Mets lost to Padres, 3-2 on Thursday
Diamondbacks beat Astros, 8-5 on Thursday

Houston at Los Angeles - 10:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Norris (5-8, 3.73 ERA) 2-7 L9 1-6 L7 away Game 1's
Eovaldi (1-0, 3.60 ERA) 2-5 L7 8-4 L12 Game 1's

Astros lost to Diamondbacks, 8-5 on Thursday
Dodgers lost to Phillies, 9-8 on Wednesday

AMERICAN LEAGUE


Minnesota at Cleveland - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Pavano (6-9, 4.71 ERA) 2-6 L8 2-5 L7 away off win
Masterson (9-7, 2.71 ERA) 4-2 L6 13-6 home Game 1's

Twins beat Red Sox, 5-2 on Wednesday
Indians lost to Tigers, 4-3 on Thursday

Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Price (9-10, 3.89 ERA) 7-2 L9 11-5 away vs division
Sabathia (16-6, 2.81 ERA) 7-3 L10 2-6 home on Fridays

Rays beat Royals, 4-1 on Thursday
Yankees beat Angels, 6-5 on Thursday

Detroit at Baltimore - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Penny (7-9, 4.92 ERA) 5-5 L10 OVER 8-1 away on Fridays
Simon (3-5, 4.08 ERA) 2-7 L9 2-6 home on Fridays

Tigers beat Indians, 4-3 on Thursday
Orioles lost to White Sox, 6-3 on Thursday

Los Angeles at Toronto - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Santana (8-8, 3.21 ERA) 2-6 L8 10-4 L14 away off loss
Morrow (8-6, 4.51 ERA) 5-5 L10 OVER 10-3 L13 home off loss

Angels lost to Yankees, 6-5 on Thursday
Blue Jays lost to Athletics, 10-3 on Thursday

Kansas City at Chicago - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Chen (6-5, 4.43 ERA) 1-6 L7 2-5 L7 away Game 1's
Stewart (1-1, 3.91 ERA) 6-1 L7 2-7 home on Fridays

Royals lost to Rays, 4-1 on Thursday
White Sox beat Orioles, 6-3 on Thursday

Texas at Oakland - 10:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Wilson (10-5, 3.35 ERA) 5-2 L7 UNDER 6-2 away on Fridays
McCarthy (5-5, 3.31 ERA) 4-1 L5 10-4 L14 home off win

Rangers lost to Mariners, 4-3 on Wednesday
Athletics beat Blue Jays, 10-3 on Thursday

Boston at Seattle - 10:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Lackey (10-8, 6.14 ERA) 6-3 L9 UNDER 11-3 L14 away off loss
Beavan (3-2, 2.83 ERA) 5-5 L10 UNDER 8-3 L11 home off win

Red Sox lost to Twins, 5-2 on Wednesday
Mariners beat Rangers, 4-3 on Wednesday

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Preseason Profit Report

August 12, 2011

This will be a totally different preseason for every NFL head coach, both old and new alike. Usually head coaches will come into camp after a ton of organized team activities (OTA) and team meetings under their belt, and having a good idea which players will fill the majority of his 53-man roster.

NOT THIS SEASON!!!

With only around 10 days to prepare for their first preseason game the majority of the coaches I have heard from are saying "they are not getting a good feeling putting their top players on the field at all in this short a period of time to prepare.”

After hearing those words, it appears that the smart move is to take a step back and see how these teams approach their opening preseason games and handicap accordingly.

It’s extremely important this season to gather as much information as possible and listen to every sound byte or video clip that the head coaches make available. With those alone, you’re assured to get a huge edge over the oddsmakers and betting public.

I will be monitoring this closely and will release anything I come across that gives us a winning edge.

However I also feel once the preseason progresses things may return to some sort of familiarity for the teams and coaches.

Despite the uncertainty expected over the next four weeks, I have listed my top 10 Preseason Trends to keep an eye out for this year’s slate.

Top 10 Preseason Trends and Analysis

1) Kansas City Chiefs - Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 2-15 against the spread over the past four years. I definitely look for more of the same this year especially in these early games after reading this quote from head coach Todd Haley. He said, "I don’t know if we want to shoot all our guns in the first team talk because we don’t have everybody.” He added about his veterans, “It was a skeleton crew, it didn’t feel like training camp.”

2) Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis never cared about winning in the preseason with Tony Dungy as head coach. Well things have sure continued with Jim Caldwell leading the troops, as the Colts have gone 5-12 against the spread over the past four seasons while losing all of their preseason openers in this span. Plus throw in the fact that with Manning recovering from his second neck surgery, the Colts offense this preseason will be lead by backup Curtis Painter. A very scary thought!

3) Pittsburgh Steelers - This is one of my strongest preseason trends to watch for as the Steelers have seen the ‘under’ go an amazing 17-4 over the past five years in the preseason. With all the uncertainty coming into this year’s preseason I definitely can see this trend continuing.

4) Atlanta Falcons - One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their “Dress Rehearsal” game. The last seven years the Falcons have gone a perfect 7-0 outscoring their opposition 164-75. This year’s “Dress Rehearsal” game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 27 when they play Pittsburgh on the road.

5) Philadelphia Eagles - Another one of my favorite preseason plays is on the Eagles as Andy Reid doesn’t go all out in the first preseason game of the year going a perfect 0-7 in their opener not winning their first preseason game since 2003. The Eagles open up this year against Baltimore at home on Aug. 11.

6) Baltimore Ravens - In the past six preseason’s, the Ravens have played some really low-scoring games with the ‘under’ going a money making 17-6. This trend has continued with new head coach John Harbaugh playing it close to the vest as the Ravens have watched the under go 9-3 in his first three years has head coach.

7) Green Bay Packers - Under head coach Mike McCarthy a solid trend has developed that has seen the Packers incorporate a wide-open game plan over the past five years. During this stretch, the ‘over’ has posted an impressive 15-5 record in the preseason. After winning the Super Bowl, I can definitely see this trend playing out again this year as the Green Bay's intensity level can't be that high coming into camp.

8) Chicago/Cleveland - One scenario I always look forward to in the preseason is when the Bears and Browns matchup in their final preseason game. This has occurred the past eight years with the ‘under’ going an amazing 7-1. Both organizations just want to get through this game and run, run, and run the ball all game long. This year’s game will take place on Thursday Sept. 1 in Chicago.

9) San Diego Chargers - This will be Norv Turner’s fifth year as head coach of the Chargers. In Turner’s last head coaching job with the Raiders back in 2004, a solid trend can be taken away from it that can give us an edge for the Chargers’ preseason games. First of all, in both of his dress rehearsal games in Oakland the Raiders went 0-2 against the spread, this trend has continued as Turner has not covered his "Dress Rehearsal" game the first four years in San Diego, making him now a perfect 0-6 ATS. This year’s dress rehearsal game for the Chargers will be at Arizona on Saturday Aug. 27.

10) Jacksonville Jaguars - While it may look like all these early preseason games may just be low-scoring and nothing more than scrimmages. It appears that we might have a huge edge here with Jacksonville. Head coach Jack Del Rio has emphasized offense in his opening preseason game, with the Jaguars seeing the ‘over’ go 5-0 in their openers since 2006. This year, Jacksonville pays a visit to New England on Thursday Aug. 11 to start off the preseason.

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Preseason Tech Trends - Week 1

August 12, 2011


Cincinnati at Detroit (Friday)...Lions have been pointspread terrors in preseason lately, covering 9 of 12 since ‘08, and 5 of the last 6 for HC Jim Schwartz. Meanwhile, Cincy’s Marvin Lewis has only covered 1 of his last 5 exhibitions on the road.

Miami at Atlanta (Friday)...After a 6-0-1 spread mark under HC Tony Sparano in the last seven preseason games entering last year, Miami slipped to 1-3 vs. the number in 2010. Sparano also “under” 9-3 in preseason since 2008. Falcons also trending “under” in preseason (8-3 “under” the last 11 for HC Mike Smith).

Pittsburgh at Washington (Friday)...Steelers have covered their preseason opener the past three years for HC Mike Tomlin, who is also “under” 8-2 his last ten in exhibition play. Washington HC Mike Shanahan notorious for taking preseason seriously throughout his career, although only 2-2 vs. the line in Redskin debut LY. “Shan” 2-0-1 vs. line his last three exhibition openers.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (Friday)...Chiefs have been the biggest spread underachiever in preseason play lately, dropping all 8 vs. the number since HC Todd Haley took over in 2009 and 15 of the last 16 dating to Herm Edwards’ last two years in charge (since ’07). KC also “under” 7-1 in preseason for Haley. Bucs have covered their last three preseason road games for HC Raheem Morris.

San Francisco at New Orleans (Friday)...Jim Harbaugh debut as 49ers HC. New Orleans has been a preseason spread overachiever for HC Sean Payton, covering 11 of the last 15 on the board. Saints also “over” 6-1 last 7 in preseason for Payton. Niners were unbeaten vs. line (3-0-1) in exhibitions last year for Mike Singletary.

Green Bay at Cleveland (Saturday)...Pat Shurmur debut as Bronws HC. Pack has covered 8 of last 10 in preseason for HC Mike McCarthy, also “over” 11-2 last 13 since late ‘07 preseason.

NY Giants at Carolina (Saturday)...Ron Rivera debut as Panthers HC. Carolina notoriously low-keyed it in preseason under previous HC John Fox, dropping 12 of its last 15 exhibition spread decisions. Note, however, that Tom Coughlin’s Giants have failed to cover their last five preseason games away from the Meadowlands (old and new stadiums).

Buffalo at Chicago (Saturday)...Lovie Smith usually takes it easy in preseason openers, as Bears haven’t covered their last three exhibition openers. Note that Bills were “over” in all four preseason games last summer for HC Chan Gailey.

Indianapolis at St. Louis (Saturday)...Jim Caldwell has low-keyed it in preseason much like predecessor Tony Dungy; Colts just 1-3 vs. the line each of the last two preseasons for Caldwell, and now just 5-12 vs. the line in exhibition play since ‘07. Note that Rams have covered 3 of 4 in each of the last two preseasons for HC Steve Spagnuolo and have covered 8 of their last 10 in exhibition play. St. Louis also “over” all four in preseason last year.

Minnesota at Tennessee (Saturday)...Vikings mostly took preseason seriously for HC Brad Childress, covering 6 of 8 the past two years; this will be Leslie Frazier’s preseason head coaching debut vs. Titans. And it’s Mike Munchak’s debut as Tennessee HC; note that Titans were “over” 8 of last 10 in exhibition play for the deposed Jeff Fisher.


NY Jets at Houston (Monday)...Rex Ryan is 5-3 vs. the line in preseason the last two years for the Jets, although he has failed to cover the opening game in both seasons. Texans HC Gary Kubiak just 1-4-1 vs. line last six exhibition games at Reliant Stadium.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta

CHICAGO CUBS (51-67, -13.7 Units)

at ATLANTA BRAVES (69-49, +9.0 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: TBD

Like every year, the Cubs seem to be a disappointment and the Braves are at the center of the playoff picture. At 51-67, Chicago sits 16 games behind the N.L. Central lead while Atlanta sits comfortably atop the N.L. Wild Card race at 69-49. The Cubs have been hot however, entering the weekend with an 8-2 record in August. With the trade deadline addition of speedy Michael Bourn in center field, the Braves have a true leadoff presence to jump-start them now.

Play on favored ATLANTA to take this series, with too much of a starting pitching and lineup edge in this series to give the lovable loser Cubs a chance. Chicago has the second-fewest road wins in the NL (22), while the Braves have been dominant against N.L. Central teams this year, winning 62.1% of the games (18-11).

The FoxSheets give another reason to take the Braves, who are not facing a lefty starter this weekend.ATLANTA is 51-32 (61.4%, +11.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season. The average score was ATLANTA 4.2, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, August 12 – 7:35 EDT
Friday line: Atlanta -140, Chicago +130, Total: 8.5
CHC: 13-10 (+3.50 Units) when Carlos Zambrano starts
ATL: 5-2 (+2.70 Units) when Mike Minor starts
Zambrano (9-6, 4.46 ERA) is perhaps most known as one of the worst-tempered pitchers in baseball. He’s channeled that into success this year, winning three more games than he’s lost, but be wary of some of his peripherals. He only strikes out 6.2 per 9 innings while walking 3.6. That low ratio doesn’t bode well for future success. He will have to take advantage of the strikeout-prone Braves squad that has been fanned the fourth-most times in MLB with 917.
Despite not always pitching well, Minor (1-2, 4.85 ERA) has helped the Braves go 5-2 in his seven starts this year. He was unspectacular in his first start since being recalled last week against the Mets, allowing four runs in 5.2 innings. He’ll give the Braves a shot, however, especially if his lineup can rattle the flammable Zambrano.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, August 13 - 7:10 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
CHC: 5-9 (-3.25 Units) when Randy Wells starts
ATL: 13-12 (-0.05 Units) when Derek Lowe starts
Wells (3-4, 6.05 ERA) has been a disaster for the Cubs, evidenced by his last start. In that outing he allowed six runs over seven innings, serving up three home runs. In just 77.1 innings this year, he’s allowed 15 long balls (including 9 HR in past six starts), something the Braves lineup should be licking their chops over.
Lowe (7-10, 4.78 ERA) finally ended his string of six straight non-quality starts, with a strong outing in Florida his last time out (6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER). He’s also had success against the Cubs, going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in nine starts against them since 2006. Although Turner Field has not been a safe haven for Lowe this year (5.07 ERA), he is still the favorable play over the struggling Wells.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, August 14 - 1:35 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
CHC: 8-14 (-7.65 Units) when Matt Garza starts
ATL: 9-8 (-0.55 Units) when Brandon Beachy starts
Garza (5-9, 3.81 ERA) has been the lone Cubs starter to be in the rotation the entire year and pitch with a strong level of consistency. He’s far worse away from Wrigley Field though, with a 5.20 road ERA. Against the K-machine Beachy, play against the Cubs’ ace.
Beachy’s (5-2, 3.43 ERA) last start embodied his entire season: he allowed two runs over 6.2 innings with 10 K in a no-decision. He is averaging 9.74 K per 9 innings, but only has seven decisions in 17 starts this year. Although not nearly as bad as the Braves, the Cubs are strikeout-prone as well, ranking tied for 10th in the majors with 860 whiffs. Beachy has never faced the Cubs in his career.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Boston at Seattle

BOSTON RED SOX (72-44, +6.7 Units)

at SEATTLE MARINERS (50-66, -13.6 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: TBD

The Red Sox and Mariners are heading in opposite directions right now, with Boston fighting to keep the A.L. East lead and the Mariners sinking to the bottom of the A.L. West. Their deadline deal together embodied that, with the Red Sox receiving starting pitcher Erik Bedard as a part of a three-team trade. Although he does not pitch this series, the Red Sox will aim to build on their one-game lead over the Yankees with a sweep over a weaker opponent.

Bet on SEATTLE to win the series as heavy underdogs who should receive great lines against the juggernaut Red Sox. The Mariners have strong pitching matchups in the first two games of the series, and despite their division-worst record, play near .500-ball at home (27-28) and are 5-4 in August.

The FoxSheets show another trend siding with the Mariners to take two out of three games.

TERRY FRANCONA is 66-77 (-25.3 Units) against the money line in road games against AL West opponents as the manager of BOSTON. The average score was BOSTON 4.4, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, August 12 – 10:10 EDT
Friday line: Boston -150, Seattle +140, Total: 8
BOS: 10-9 (-2.45 Units) when John Lackey starts
SEA: 3-3 (+0.70 Units) when Blake Beavan starts
Lackey (10-8, 6.14 ERA) has been an extreme disappointment for the Red Sox, and what’s worse is there are no signs of encouragement with his 5.40 ERA in his past three starts. The good news is he has been strong against the Mariners so far this year, going 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts. Still, he is an unfavorable play against the hot hand Beavan.
Since being called up from the minors at the beginning of July, Beavan (3-2, 2.83 ERA) has been spectacular. Although he’s not a typical big-strikeout pitcher, he has impeccable control, walking nobody in three of his six career starts. He’s shown the ability to pitch well against good teams too, delivering quality starts in his four outings against the Angels (twice), Rangers and Red Sox. He gave up three runs in 6.2 innings in Boston on July 23. Play on him this game.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, August 13 - 10:10 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
BOS: 16-6 (+7.25 Units) when Josh Beckett starts
SEA: 13-12 (-1.40 Units) when Felix Hernandez starts
Beckett (9-4, 2.17 ERA) has returned to elite status this year and is the favorable play against almost any pitcher. Unfortunately, Felix Hernandez may be one of those exceptions. Still, the Boston right-hander has been consistently dominant, never allowing more than three earned runs in any of his seven starts since July (2.11 ERA, 0.96 WHIP). This will be a great pitcher’s duel.
Hernandez (10-10, 3.31 ERA) has been slightly less consistent than Beckett, but is unhittable when he’s on top of his game. He has six starts this year with 10 or more strikeouts, and in his past 14.1 innings over two starts he’s fanned 21 and allowed just four runs. “King Felix,” how he is affectionately known, is 4-2 with a 3.39 ERA in 10 career starts versus Boston.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, August 14 - 4:10 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
BOS: 11-5 (+4.85 Units) when Tim Wakefield starts
Team: 1-3 (+1.60 Units) when Charlie Furbush starts
Never spectacular, the 45-year-old Wakefield (6-4, 4.92 ERA) is a reliable veteran who should be counted on to grind out this matchup. He’ll be trying to win his 200th career game on Sunday. Still, he has struggled against the Mariners with a 6.00 ERA in 12 innings against them this year, and is no sure thing, with nine straight starts of allowing at least three earned runs (5.43 ERA in this span).
Furbush (2-4, 4.46 ERA) excelled in 26 innings as a reliever with a 2.42 ERA but has struggled in the rotation with a 7.71 ERA and .343 opponents’ BA in four starts. He’s also a lefty, which doesn’t bode well for him on Sunday because the Red Sox are one of three teams in baseball with an OPS above .800 against left-handed pitching.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: San Francisco at Florida

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (64-54, +3.0 Units)

at FLORIDA MARLINS (55-62, -7.8 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: TBD

The streaky Marlins are on a bad run again, while the Giants are struggling themselves. Florida will be trying to snap a seven-game losing streak when it hosts San Francisco for a three-game set starting Friday night. Meanwhile, the Giants are just 4-10 since adding Carlos Beltran, who is now battling a wrist injury, to their lineup.

Florida pulled off a sweep in San Francisco the last time these teams met, back in May, and took out star catcher Buster Posey in the process. It took the Giants some time to recover then, just as they’re adjusting to the arrival of Beltran now. They pulled off a three-game sweep the last time they visited Miami, in May 2010, and they’ll have their three best pitchers on the mound this weekend: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Ryan Vogelsong. That, plus this pair of three-star trends from the FoxSheets, is enough to make SAN FRANCISCO the pick to win the series.

FLORIDA is 20-35 (36.4%, -20.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was FLORIDA 3.9, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 3*).

JACK McKEON is 1-12 (7.7%, -13.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better as the manager of FLORIDA. The average score was FLORIDA 2.8, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 3*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, August 12 - 7:10 ET
Friday line: San Francisco -120, Florida +100, Total: 7
SF: 14-10 (+3.1 Units) when Matt Cain starts
FLA: 10-14 (-6.0 Units) when Ricky Nolasco starts
After a shaky start against Arizona (5.2 IP, 5 ER) to kick off August, Cain (9-8, 3.00 ERA) bounced back nicely in a tough-luck loss to the Phillies on Saturday, allowing just three hits and one earned run in eight innings. The Marlins got to him for four runs in six innings in a May outing at San Francisco, but the Giants are 6-2 against Florida with Cain on the mound. The May outing was his only non-quality start ever against the Marlins, who have batted just .210 in 195 at-bats versus Cain.
Nolasco (8-8, 3.86 ERA) has somehow gotten by allowing only three runs over 13.2 innings in his past two starts, despite allowing 22 hits. That’s because he’s struck out seven and walked only one in that span. He’s had plenty of success over five starts against the Giants (1.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP), including 8.1 innings of one-run ball in San Francisco in May, when he outpitched Cain during a 5-1 victory.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, August 13 - 7:10 ET
Saturday line: TBD
SF: 14-10 (-0.5 Units) when Tim Lincecum starts
FLA: 11-12 (+1.0 Units) when Javier Vazquez starts
Lincecum (10-9, 2.69 ERA) has been lights out over the past month, posting a 1.36 ERA over his past six starts and allowing more than one run in just one of them (2 ER vs. Arizona). However, his K-to-BB ratio is a surprisingly middling 39-to-19 over 39.2 innings during that span. He’s faced the Marlins only twice, both times in Miami, posting a 3.14 ERA and .160 opponents’ BA as the Giants won both of those outings.
Despite a weak stat line for the season, Vazquez (7-9, 4.72 ERA) has been much better over his past 10 starts: 4-3, 2.19 ERA (though six unearned runs allowed as well), 47 strikeouts and only 13 walks over 61.2 innings. He was a little shaky against St. Louis on Sunday, allowing four runs (one earned) over six innings. He has only faced the Giants once since 2005, when he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings during his Cy Young-caliber 2009 season for Atlanta.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, August 14 - 1:10 ET
Sunday line: TBD
SF: 12-7 (+4.3 Units) when Ryan Vogelsong starts
FLA: 10-10 (+0.5 Units) when Chris Volstad starts
He’s been one of the surprise stories of 2011, but Vogelsong (9-2, 2.48 ERA) is coming off a brutal outing against the Phillies. He struck out eight in five innings on Monday, but also gave up five runs and 11 base runners. He’s also been a little shakier in road starts this year, where he’s 3-0, but has a 3.55 ERA and 1.45 WHIP (as opposed to 1.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home). He pitched very well against Florida in May, holding them to one run over eight innings in a tough loss.
The struggles continue for Volstad (5-8, 5.58 ERA). After posting an 8.50 ERA over four starts in July, he was optioned to Triple-A New Orleans where he threw seven shutout innings in his first start, but allowed nine runs and 22 base runners over 11.1 innings in his next two. He has a strong track record against the Giants (1.71 ERA, 17 K, 3 BB over three career starts), including six innings of two-run ball in a no-decision at San Francisco in May (a Florida win).

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees

TAMPA BAY RAYS (63-54)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (71-45)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: TBD

The Yankees can all but officially knock Tampa Bay out of playoff contention when they host the Rays for a three-game set starting Friday night.

New York enters the weekend with an 8½-game lead over Tampa for the A.L. Wild Card spot. But the Rays are an even 6-6 over the past two years at the new Yankee Stadium, and they have clear advantages in the Saturday and Sunday pitching matchups. Plus, at 32-26 (+7.5 Units), Tampa has the third-best road record in the American League. The FoxSheets provide another trend about the Yankees that sides with TAMPA BAY to steal the weekend series:

TAMPA BAY is 32-20 (61.5%, +13.2 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.2, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, August 12 - 7:05 ET
Friday line: N.Y. Yankees -170, Tampa Bay +160, Total: 8
TB: 12-12 (-4.1 Units) when David Price starts
NYY: 18-7 (+7.4 Units) when CC Sabathia starts
Price (9-10, 3.89 ERA) continues to see his 2011 season spiral downwards. He failed to make it out of the fifth against Oakland at home on Sunday, allowing four runs and 10 base runners in just 4.2 innings. Tampa has lost his past four and six of his past seven starts. The Rays have won six of his 10 career starts against the Yankees, but Price is 0-1 with a 5.71 ERA in three starts against New York this year.
Sabathia (16-6, 2.81 ERA) was on a ridiculous tear before the Red Sox touched him up on Saturday (6 IP, 9 H, 7 ER). He hadn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his previous eight outings. He dominated the Rays twice in July, throwing a four-hit shutout in Yankee Stadium on July 10 followed by eight innings of two-run ball in a tough loss 11 days later. But since joining the Yankees, Sabathia is just 2-5 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.28 WHIP against Tampa, and New York has lost seven of his 11 starts against the Rays.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, August 13 - 4:10 ET
Saturday line: TBD
TB: 11-9 (+1.0 Units) when Jeremy Hellickson starts
NYY: 4-4 (-1.1 Units) when Phil Hughes starts
Hellickson (10-7, 3.05 ERA) has quality starts in seven of his past eight outings, and is coming off back-to-back gems (albeit against weak opponents), holding the Mariners to one run over seven innings and the Royals to one run over 7.1. He was excellent in his only career start against the Yankees, holding them to two runs and five hits over seven innings, striking out seven and walking one on July 19.
Manager Joe Girardi has said he’d like to go back to a five-man rotation, so Hughes (2-4, 7.11 ERA) is likely pitching for his rotation spot. He pitched out of the bullpen in their 10-inning loss in Boston on Sunday (taking the loss by allowing a run in the 10th), but he threw a rain-shortened, six-inning shutout against the White Sox in his previous start. His velocity is better than it was early in the year, and he’s 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA as a starter since returning from the minors, allowing more than two runs just once in five starts.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, August 14 - 1:05 ET
Sunday line: TBD
TB: 15-9 (+3.4 Units) when James Shields starts
NYY: 11-9 (+0.3 Units) when Freddy Garcia starts
Shields (11-9, 2.80 ERA) has bounced back strong since a disastrous start in Oakland to close out July (10 runs, 14 base runners in four innings). He held the Blue Jays to one run over 7.1 innings on August 3, then threw a six-hit shutout, striking out eight, against the Royals on Tuesday. Despite a 6-5 record at home (Tampa is 8-5 in his starts), Shields has been magnificent at Tropicana Field, posting a 2.15 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and recording quality starts in 11 of his 13 outings. He beat the Yankees at home on July 21, holding them to one run over 7.2 innings. In three starts against New York in 2011, he has a 1.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 22.2 innings.
Garcia (10-7, 3.16 ERA) is chugging along nicely of late, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his past four starts. He threw 6.2 shutout innings, striking out seven and walking none, in a victory in Tampa on July 20. He’s won both of his starts against the Rays over the past two seasons, allowing just two runs, striking out 14 and walking only two over 13.2 innings.

[StarDust Bum]

Bucs and Chiefs start preseason on Friday

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS


Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -3, Total: 33

Two of last season’s surprise teams kick of their 2011 preseasons when the Buccaneers visit Kansas City on Friday night.

You wouldn’t have predicted success for either of these teams based on last year’s preseason; Tampa went 2-2 while K.C. went 1-3. But considering the Bucs are the team with the more seasoned back-up—Tampa has Josh Johnson, while the Chiefs have only rookie Ricky Stanzi and journeyman Tyler Palko—that will give them an edge in this preseason matchup. Factor in that the Chiefs are 1-7 SU in the preseason since head coach Todd Haley took over, and the pick is TAMPA BAY.

The Chiefs won the AFC West last year, but it was due in large part to a very soft schedule. They played only three regular-season games against teams who finished with winning records (their only win was over San Diego in a torrential rain storm), and they were blown out of their own stadium by Baltimore in the Wild Card playoff round. K.C. will be working in a couple of new receivers in Steve Breaston, who played under Haley in Arizona, and talented rookie Jon Baldwin. The Chiefs could be without TE Tony Moeaki on Friday, after he underwent minor offseason knee surgery.

Tampa Bay improved seven wins to 10-6 last season, but the Bucs struggled to stop the run last season (2nd-worst in NFL at 4.7 yards per carry allowed). They’ll have a major test against the Chiefs’ power running game. They’ll likely use rookie Mason Foster to replace long-time veteran Barrett Ruud (now with Tennessee) at middle linebacker, and his play will be key in their undersized front seven. A third-round pick, Foster is undersized himself at 6-foot-1, 241 pounds.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Friday, August 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 7:30 PM ET Pittsburgh +0 500
Washington - Under 33 500

Miami - 7:30 PM ET Atlanta -2.5 500
Atlanta - Under 33 500

Cincinnati - 7:30 PM ET Detroit -4.5 500
Detroit - Over 35.5 500

Tampa Bay - 8:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -2.5 500
Kansas City - Under 33 500

San Francisco - 8:00 PM ET San Francisco +3 500
New Orleans - Under 36 500

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MLB

Friday, August 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +103 500
Baltimore - Over 9.5 500

Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET NY Yankees -173 500
NY Yankees - Under 7.5 500

Minnesota - 7:05 PM ET Minnesota +134 500
Cleveland - Over 8 500

Washington - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia -252 500
Philadelphia - Over 8 500

LA Angels - 7:07 PM ET LA Angels +115 500
Toronto - Under 8 500

San Francisco - 7:10 PM ET Florida +105 500
Florida - Under 7 500

San Diego - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati -108 500
Cincinnati - Under 8 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:35 PM ET Chi. Cubs +127 500
Atlanta - Over 8.5 500

Kansas City - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -133 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 9 500

Pittsburgh - 8:10 PM ET Milwaukee -193 500
Milwaukee - Over 8 500

Colorado - 8:15 PM ET Colorado +145 500
St. Louis - Under 8.5 500

NY Mets - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -162 500
Arizona - Under 8.5 500

Texas - 10:05 PM ET Oakland +118 500
Oakland - Over 7.5 500

Boston - 10:10 PM ET Boston -149 500
Seattle - Under 8 500

Houston - 10:10 PM ET Houston +140 500
LA Dodgers - Over 7 500

==============================================

CFL

Friday, August 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Calgary - 9:00 PM ET Calgary -3.5 500

Saskatchewan - Over 49 500

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7:00 PM ETNew York at Washington

Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

NY 651 13-9 (5-5 V) - 150 Over

WAS 652 4-15 (2-8 H) - 4 ( Washington + 4 )

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts



8:30 PM ETMinnesota at Chicago

Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

MIN 653 16-5 (7-3 V) - 149 UNDER

CHI 654 10-13 (8-4 H) - 5.5 ( CHICAGO + 5.5 )

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts



10:30 PM ETPhoenix at Los Angeles

Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

PHO 655 13-9 (6-5 V) - 182.5 UNDER

LA 656 8-13 (5-4 H) - 5 ( Phoenix - 5 )

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts