The Bum's Monday's Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Minnesota Twins Host Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Preview

Tim Wakefield will take another crack at career win No. 200 when he takes the mound for the Boston Red Sox in Monday's series opener at the Minnesota Twins. First pitch from Target Field in Minneapolis will be a little past 4:00 p.m. (PT) and ESPN will televise the game nationally.

The contest begins a 6-game road trip for the Red Sox who are fighting the New York Yankees at the top of the American League East Division. Boston and New York were tied for first entering their Sunday night battle that was still pending, each with identical 69-43 records.

Minnesota (51-62) was fourth in the AL Central standings when play started Sunday, the series finale with the Chicago White Sox also still in progress. It's been a trying season for Ron Gardenhire and his Twins who were supposed to contend for their seventh division flag in 10 seasons only to find themselves 10 games behind the Detroit Tigers.

Scott Baker (9-11, 3.01) will get the call for the Twins to begin this series in a rematch of his matchup with Wakefield in Boston on May 6. Baker worked eight innings and allowed just two runs – solo homers by JD Drew and Adrian Gonzalez – to lead Minnesota (+150) to the 9-2 triumph. It was Baker's first career victory against the Red Sox.

The right-hander out of Oklahoma State is coming off a rough outing in Anaheim last Wednesday, managing to last only three innings and charged with all four Angels runs. Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young came to Baker's and the Twins' rescue in the 11-4 win.

Baker has been almost untouchable at Target Field since mid-May with six consecutive quality starts. He's allowed just one earned run in the stretch that covers 41 1/3 innings (0.21 ERA) and begins this game with a string of 26 1/3 innings at home without an earned run crossing the plate.

Extending that string against all of the left-handed bats in Boston's lineup will be difficult. Lefties are batting .267 against Baker this season compared to only .208 by right-handed hitters.

Wakefield (10-5, 4.99) has seen his ERA rise nearly half a run during his last seven starts, the veteran knuckler posting a 6.06 mark in that span. But Boston's offense has come to his aid to deliver five wins in the seven outings.

Minnesota's lineup torched him for eight runs (six earned) in less than five innings of that May 6 clash against Baker. The Twins also lit Wakefield up in his only career appearance at their new ballpark, scoring six times in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-0 whitewashing in April 2010.

Baker's May start was the only win for the Twins in that 4-game series at Fenway Park while MLB betting totals split, 2-2. The Twins have won seven of the last 11 of this series played in Minnesota, including two of three in 2010 in the only previous meeting at Target Field between the clubs.

A muggy day is in the Minneapolis forecast along with an increasing chance of scattered thunderstorms after nightfall. Expect winds out of the west (out to center) around 10-12 mph at the game's outset with the temperature in the upper 70s.

Erik Bedard will be on the mound for Boston when the series continues Tuesday. He's scheduled to be opposed by Francisco Liriano.

[StarDust Bum]

Colorado Rockies Clash With Cincinnati Reds

The Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds will meet for the first time during the 2011 campaign and both teams have likely played their way out of the playoff race. Monday’s first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. (PT) at the Great American Ball Park.

Colorado has fallen on hard times and hopes the reinstatement of star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez will provide the necessary lift for a late-season run in the National League West Division. The team trailed San Francisco by nine games in the standings heading into Sunday.

Gonzalez missed two-plus weeks of action and tallied two hits in his return against the Washington Nationals Saturday night. Before going on the disabled list, he was hitting .289 with 15 home runs and 56 RBI.

The Rockies have compiled an 11-12 record against NL Central opponents this year and will look to improve upon their 25-31 mark away from Coors Field.

Jason Hammel (6-11, 4.88) gets the call in the series opener after dropping three of his last four starts. He was handed an 8-6 home loss to the Phillies last time out, giving up six runs and eight hits over five innings.

The right-hander has tallied an even 3-3 mark and 4.19 ERA in 10 road starts this year, surrendering just four home runs in 62 1/3 frames. That’s a much better ratio than giving up 11 round trippers in 70 1/3 innings in the Mile High City.

Hammel will be searching for his first lifetime victory against the Reds, coming in with an 0-1 record and 4.22 ERA in three outings. He made his only career start at Great American Ball Park on July 16, 2010, picking up a 3-2 loss (7 IP, 3 R).

Cincinnati had lost nine of its first 12 games since the All-Star break entering play Sunday, and fallen 9½-games back in the NL Central. The Reds will be happy to return home, bringing in a 30-27 record in contrast to a 24-32 ledger on the road.

Second baseman Brandon Phillips may add to the club’s problems after being removed from Saturday’s game with a sprained ankle suffered in a collision with center fielder Drew Stubbs. He was not expected to be in the lineup Sunday in Chicago.

Homer Bailey (6-5, 4.30 ERA) has won three of his last four starts, including a dominating 5-1 road performance over the Astros. He allowed just a single run and five hits over eight strong innings.

The former first-round selection has been compiled much better numbers at night than during the day, entering with a 3-1 record and 3.00 ERA under the lights compared to a losing 3-4 mark and 5.05 ERA in eight daytime outings.

Bailey will also be seeking a first victory against tonight’s opponent, posting a 0-2 record and 5.74 ERA in three starts versus the Rockies. He will need to pitch carefully to Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who has five hits in seven at-bats against him.

Colorado has dominated the Reds the past four seasons with 21 victories in 26 meetings. The Reds did manage to take two of the three played in Cincinnati a season ago, the 'under' also cashing two of those three games.

Weather forecasts suggest game-time temperatures in the mid-80s with a westerly breeze of 5-10 mph.

[StarDust Bum]

LA Dodgers In MLB Odds Battle With Roy Halladay And Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies close out a 10-game road trip with a 3-game set at the Los Angeles Dodgers that begins Monday. Game time is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. (PT).

The Phillies had won nine straight games heading into Sunday, and they have not lost a series opener since falling at Chicago on July 18.

Ironically, the last time Philadelphia lost the first game of a series, ace Roy Halladay (14-4, 2.55 ERA) was on the mound. Halladay gave up three runs and seven hits in four innings of a 6-1 loss to the Cubs at Wrigley Field on July 18 as a 200 favorite.

Halladay has won three starts since then, two of which saw him as an MLB betting favorite of 220 or higher. He has been an underdog only once this season and lost that game.

The Phillies have averaged nearly eight runs in his past three outings with the total going ‘over’ each time, and they are 12-1 in their last 13 series openers.

The Dodgers will be sending Hiroki Kuroda (7-13, 2.96) to the hill after he was the subject of many trade rumors before last Sunday’s deadline. Kuroda’s record obviously doesn’t reflect how well he has pitched this season, and he ended a personal four-game losing streak with a brilliant win at San Diego last time out on Tuesday.

Kuroda pitched seven scoreless innings against the Padres, allowing just four hits with two walks and eight strikeouts. He had lost his previous four outings despite surrendering three runs or less three times.

Los Angeles has managed to score two runs or less in each of his last four starts. The ‘under’ is 3-1 during that stretch and 6-2 in his past eight trips to the mound.

The Dodgers will be opening a six-game homestand against Philadelphia following a six-game road trip, and they dropped two of three at Citizens Bank Park earlier this season. Los Angeles’ lone win of that series came against Roy Oswalt, as the team was able to score one run combined in the other two against Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. The ‘under’ went 2-0-1 in the three games.

Kuroda took the loss in the series finale on June 8 against the Phillies despite allowing one run and four hits in 5 1/3 innings with three walks and seven strikeouts. He served up a solo home run to Ryan Howard in the sixth inning before departing in an eventual 2-0 loss.

Halladay and Kuroda went head-to-head a little less than a year ago here at Chavez Ravine. Kuroda outdueled the eventual NL Cy Young winner with 7 2/3-innings of 1-hit baseball in the 3-0 Dodgers win. Los Angeles was a 130 underdog in that contest.

The weather forecast for the first pitch in Los Angeles on Monday calls for a temperature of 74 degrees under sunny skies before cooling down to 66.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Monday

August 8, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Mariners are 0-9 since April 25, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $900 when playing against.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Phillies are 0-11 OU since April 26, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $1100 when playing the under.



STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Red Sox are 0-14-2 OU since April 09, 2006 when Tim Wakefield starts within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $1400 when playing the under.



MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Diamondbacks are 17-2 (+4.0 rpg) since September 2008 as a 140+ favorite in the first game of a home series for a net profit of $1600.



TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Braves are 9-0 OU since May 28, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing the over.

The Astros are 4-0 since April 18, 2010 when Wandy Rodriguez starts as a 140+ dog after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $625.

The Royals are 10-1 OU since April 29, 2010 when Luke Hochevar starts as a dog vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $890 when playing the over.

[StarDust Bum]

Around the Horn - Monday

August 7, 2011


NATIONAL LEAGUE


Atlanta at Florida - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Lowe (6-10, 4.86 ERA) 5-5 L10 8-3 L11 away Game 1's
Hand (1-3, 2.86 ERA) 3-5 L8 OVER 5-0 L5 home vs division

Braves beat Mets, 6-5 on Sunday
Marlins lost to Cardinals, 8-4 on Sunday

San Diego at N.Y. Mets - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Stauffer (7-8, 2.96 ERA) 5-2 L7 UNDER 7-4 L11 away Game 1's
Pelfrey (6-9, 4.48 ERA) 1-6 L7 6-3 L9 Game 1's

Padres beat Pirates, 7-3 on Sunday
Mets lost to Braves, 6-5 on Sunday

Colorado at Cincinnati - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hammel (6-11, 4.88 ERA) 2-6 L8 6-2 L8 away Game 1's
Bailey (6-5, 4.30 ERA) 2-4 L6 2-5 L7 home Game 1's

Rockies lost to Nationals, 3-2 on Sunday
Reds beat Cubs, 8-7 on Sunday

Washington at Chicago - 8:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Wang (0-2, 6.00 ERA) 6-3 L9 1-4 away on Mondays
Garza (5-8, 3.78 ERA) 7-1 L8 5-2 home on Mondays

Nationals beat Rockies, 3-2 on Sunday
Cubs lost to Reds, 8-7 on Sunday

Houston at Arizona - 9:40 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Rodriguez (7-8, 3.69 ERA) 2-7 L9 1-4 away on Mondays
Hudson (11-7, 3.67 ERA) 5-3 L8 1-7 L8 home Game 1's

Astros lost to Brewers, 7-3 on Sunday
Diamondbacks beat Dodgers, 4-3 on Sunday

Philadelphia at Los Angeles - 10:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Halladay (14-4, 2.55 ERA) 9-1 L10 7-0 L7 away off loss
Kuroda (7-13, 2.96 ERA) 4-2 L6 6-1 L7 off loss

Phillies lost to Giants, 3-1 on Sunday
Dodgers lost to Diamondbacks, 4-3 on Sunday

Pittsburgh at San Francisco - 10:15 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Morton (8-6, 3.80 ERA) 0-10 L10 UNDER 13-4 away Game 1's
Vogelsong (9-1, 2.19 ERA) 2-8 L10 2-7 L9 home Game 1's

Pirates lost to Padres, 7-3 on Sunday
Giants beat Phillies, 3-1 on Sunday

AMERICAN LEAGUE


Chicago at Baltimore - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Danks (4-9, 3.90 ERA) 3-6 L9 9-3 L12 away off win
Guthrie (5-15, 4.34 ERA) 2-7 L9 0-5 L5 home Game 1's

White Sox beat Twins, 7-0 on Sunday
Orioles lost to Blue Jays, 7-2 on Sunday

Kansas City at Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hochevar (8-8, 4.95 ERA) 6-4 L10 2-7 L9 away off win
Hellickson (10-7, 3.15 ERA) 6-4 L10 17-6 L23 home off loss

Royals beat Tigers, 4-3 on Sunday
Rays lost to Athletics, 5-4 on Sunday

Boston at Minnesota - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Wakefield (6-4, 4.99 ERA) 6-3 L9 2-5 L7 away Game 1's
Baker (8-6, 3.01 ERA) 1-7 L8 6-3 L9 home Game 1's

Red Sox beat Yankees, 3-2 on Sunday
Twins lost to White Sox, 7-0 on Sunday

Seattle at Texas - 8:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Furbush (2-3, 3.52 ERA) 5-3 L8 0-5 L5 away vs LHP
Harrison (9-8, 3.08 ERA) 3-5 L8 OVER 7-2 home on Mondays

Mariners lost to Angels, 2-1 on Sunday
Rangers beat Indians, 5-3 on Sunday

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting Notes

August 8, 2011

Baseball has kept many of us entertained over the summer, but for the majority of sports fans, baseball becomes back page news as preseason football takes over center stage. The die-hards will still follow it daily and keep up with all the division races going on, but its evident from just sports talk radio and newspapers from sports cities -- without even a game being played -- that football is king.
But we still have to give our national pastime a little credit for keeping our attention with many of us still on the edge of our seats waiting to see what will happen. The Yankees-Red Sox series was once again stellar as they traded first-place throughout each game, a series Boston eventually took.

The Brewers have taken control of the once crowded NL Central by winning 11 of their last 12 with only one game not being won by two runs, a streak the sports book can’t be too excited about. The Cardinals sit three games back now as they’ve been trying to keep up and welcome the Brew crew for a three-game set on Tuesday. The battle should be intense as Milwaukee tries to prove they can win on the road. Only three of their wins during the streak came on the road and it was at Houston, who’s looked more like a Triple-A squad.

We’ve got a nice battle in the AL West going with Texas and Anaheim separated by only one game before their big series next week. The NL West also has an equally interesting battle as Arizona failed to take advantage of the Giants recent woes against Philadelphia. And as for the Phillies, Wow! The best pitching in baseball now has a fierce lineup that is destroying every team in their path with Hunter Pence easily being the top pick-up of the trade season.

With all the great things going on, sometimes it’s the sad part of the game that also endears us to it such as the Pirates meltdown following the blown call at the plate in a late July loss in Atlanta. One thing doesn’t lead to the other happening, but they’ve gone on to lose 11 of 12 games since. The surrender flag waved loud and clear to the NL Central when they lost seven games at home last week to two of the worst teams, Chicago and San Diego. However, I must say it was fun while it lasted.

Along the same lines of an instance indirectly leading to another, we have Tampa Bay pitcher David Price, who can’t seem to get a win for his team since giving up Derek Jeter’s 3,000th. Price then turned the dubious honor into a marketing ploy with autographed merchandise commemorating his feat. Since losing that day to the Yankees, the Rays are 1-4 behind their All-Star pitcher.

There probably isn’t a more ironic or symbolic taste of just how cruel and sweet the game of baseball is than the long season Braves second-baseman Dan Uggla has endured. On July 4, Uggla was hitting only .178 and considered one of the free-agent busts of the season along with Adam Dunn. But the very next day Uggla starting what would become a 28-game hitting streak that was active through Sunday. Over that span, he’s hit 12 home runs and raised his average to .220 while becoming the Braves most consistent force keeping them in wild card position.

And finally, it is with great regret to report to all baseball bettors that the gravy train ride is finally over. We knew it couldn’t last too much longer, but Astros starter J.A. Happ (4-14) has been optioned to Triple-A. It was a dream season for run-line bettors as 15 of Houston’s 18 losses behind Happ were by two runs or more. This is just a brief delay in the betting action because he’ll probably be back up in September. But the delay should prevent him from having a 20-loss season.

[StarDust Bum]

NL Playoff Paths

August 8, 2011


Most MLB teams have right around 50 games remaining on the schedule and the playoff picture is starting to become clearer. In the National League there are six teams with winning records split in pairs of two in each division and the final playoff roster appears likely to come from that group of teams although it is too early to count the fringe contenders completely out. Here is a look at the paths ahead in the final two months of the season for those six teams and how the races may shape out.

Philadelphia Phillies 71-39 (41-18 home, 30-21 away)

With the best record in baseball the Phillies have opened up a massive lead in the NL East and are almost certainly a playoff team. It would take a pretty epic collapse for Philadelphia to fail to win the division and with the talent in the rotation a long losing streak will be very unlikely. The Phillies do have a relatively tough remaining schedule however with 30 of the 52 remaining games coming on the road. This week the Phillies head west for seven games and while that will be the final west coast trip of the year, there are challenging road dates in Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Atlanta coming up. 20 of the final 30 games of the season will be road games for Philadelphia with a tough September schedule. While Philadelphia will likely still win the NL East they probably won’t continue to win at the current pace as right now they are on pace to win 104 games. Philadelphia will also play 21 games against winning teams and twelve games against teams that are exactly at .500 right now so in addition to being away from home, there will be some tough opponents lined up and a few of those teams will be fighting for playoff spots and possibly playing with more urgency than the Phillies down the stretch.

Atlanta Braves 64-48 (34-22 home, 30-26 away)

For much of the season the Braves have looked like a lock for the wild card spot even though they have not seriously threatened to over take Philadelphia. Atlanta is still certainly the favorite to be back in the playoffs again as the wild card but the Braves have seen their lead for that spot shrink in recent weeks with Arizona playing strong ball since the All Star break. Atlanta has a nice cushion on the Marlins and the Mets in the NL East so if the Braves are challenged for the final playoff spot it will likely come from the second place NL West team unless there is big breakthrough among the clump of NL Central teams floating near .500. The Braves have 25 home games and 25 road games remaining for a balanced closing schedule and Atlanta has not been the same team on the road where they are barely above .500. Atlanta will not have to travel out west for the rest of the season but they will host seven games against the Giants and Diamondbacks later in August which could be a good opportunity for the Braves to pad the wild card lead. There are only 16 games against teams with winning records at present remaining on the schedule for the Braves with six games against the Phillies, three in St. Louis and the aforementioned home stand with the NL West contenders. Overall the Braves have a schedule that could allow them to make up some ground with the Phillies in the NL East and secure the wild card spot. If another team does give chase, the Braves will have a relatively favorable closing schedule and the final home series with the Phillies could likely be a series that Philadelphia has no incentive to win.

San Francisco Giants 62-49 (33-20 home, 29-29 away)

The defending World Series champions are facing a tougher than expected push from Arizona in the NL West race and after losing two of three in the recent series between the teams there should be some serious concerns in San Francisco. The Giants will have 28 of the remaining 51 games at home where they have been a much stronger team but they will have to face two long road trips, including a ten-game set in mid-August that includes two east coast cities. Ten of the final 13 games of the season will also be on the road including the final three games with the Diamondbacks, the second to last series of the year before a home set with the Rockies. Only 14 games remain against teams with winning records and the Giants will get to play the lowly Astros seven times so overall the schedule ahead should offer some promise. Don’t be surprised if the Giants fall out of the division lead in the next two weeks as the early August schedule is very difficult but in late August and early September the Giants may be able to get on a run to move back into playoff position. The six games remaining with Arizona will obviously be critical but the games with the rest of the division will likely be just as important and the Giants currently have a fairly dominant 28-17 record in the division games.

Milwaukee Brewers 62-50 (41-15 home, 21-35 away)

The Brewers have been one of the hottest teams in baseball in the last two weeks, extending the NL Central lead after being in front or behind by slim margins most of the season. Unlike the rest of the playoff contenders in the NL, Milwaukee has featured significant discrepancies in its play at home versus on the road. The Brewers will have an equal number of home and road games the rest of the way and only six remaining road games will feature an opponent currently with a winning record. Only 13 of the remaining 50 games will be against a winning team with nine of those games being with the closest rival in the standings, St. Louis. Milwaukee will have to play a few east coast games but the Brewers are done with west coast schedule and a four-game series with the Phillies in September will be at home. The Brewers will also benefit from having three off days mixed in between the final 15 games which should allow the pitching staff to be set up well for any critical games down the stretch. Twelve of the final 18 games will be at home and none of the final 14 games will be against a team that currently has a winning record. All seems to be looking favorably for Milwaukee, looking for its first ever NL Central title, but the poor road record and some recent memories of late season collapses will keep Brewers fans from feeling too secure. The nine games with Cardinals appear to be the critical games on the schedule although a run from the Pirates or the Reds is not completely out of the question.

Arizona Diamondbacks 61-50 (29-23 home, 32-27 away)

Arizona is the surprise team in this group as the Diamondbacks have almost already passed last season’s final record of 65 wins. The Diamondbacks have scored the third most runs in the NL, trailing only the Cardinals and the Reds and Arizona also has a better run differential than the first place Giants. Arizona is also the only team in the NL West that currently has a winning road record. The Diamondbacks are just 22-19 within the division so that is an area where improvement is needed and many of the other remaining games will be against NL East teams, where all five teams have respectable records. Arizona has 29 home games left on the schedule and only 22 road games for a slight edge in the remaining schedule but nine of those games are against teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended right now. A ten-game east coast trip starting in mid-August will be a critical stretch for the team to stay in the mix as the September schedule features only teams with losing records aside from 3-games in each venue with the Giants. Those six games will be the key to this race but the Diamondbacks also need to play better than they have been against the rest of the division in order to track down San Francisco.

St. Louis Cardinals 58-53 (29-24 home, 29-29 away)

The Cardinals made a few aggressive moves at the trade deadline only to see Milwaukee get on a great win streak before the Cardinals lost two of three at Miller Park to fall further behind the NL Central leaders. St. Louis gets a chance back at home against the Brewers next week and six of the nine games remaining against Milwaukee will be at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have a relatively light schedule in August but the September slate will get a bit tricky with the Braves and the Phillies involved and ten of the final 16 games coming away from home. The final nine games come against the Mets, Cubs, and Astros however so St. Louis should expect to have the opportunity to finish strong if there is meaning to the games in the final two weeks. Only 15 of the remaining 51 games are against teams with winning records at present but St. Louis has not been overly successful in division games with just a 26-22 record. The Cardinals have a team in place to track down Milwaukee but there will not be an advantage in the schedule for St. Louis as Milwaukee’s path appears a little bit more favorable and the Brewers have a bit of a head start with a small lead in the standings.

The Rest…

The Pirates and the Reds are still within striking distance in the NL Central race and though both are below .500 they are closer to a playoff spot than Florida and New York despite .500 records for the Marlins and Mets. The Reds and Pirates will play a pivotal role in deciding the NL Central standings and both have better records within the division than Cardinals do. Cincinnati may be the longest shot despite being the defending division champions as the Reds have 16 games with the strong NL East left on the schedule and 27 of 51 remaining games will be on the road. The Reds should not be completely ruled out however as they have a solidly positive run differential and have been the second highest scoring team in the NL. The Pirates have been a winning road team to this point but it feels like the Cinderella story may be over. 26 of the 51 remaining games are against winning teams although the Pirates will have opportunities to directly make up ground, playing the Brewers and Cardinals ten times each. The Marlins and Mets have both played solid ball of late and both surprisingly have winning road records but both appear destined to playing a spoiler role at best given the distance behind in the race.

[StarDust Bum]

Halladay leads Phillies into L.A. Monday


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (74-40, +18.8 Units)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (52-61, -13.6 Units)


First pitch: Monday, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -160, Los Angeles +150, Total: 6

The Phillies finally lost 3-1 to the Giants on Sunday after winning nine straight games with six of them being on the road. Roy Halladay will try to get Philly back in the win column Monday night when his team opens a three-game set at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles will also feature one of its better hurlers when Hiroki Kuroda and his 2.96 ERA take the mound.

The Phillies, as most expected, have the best record in the majors at 74-40, but their 33-22 road mark is also tops in the National League. Philly has been phenomenal bouncing back after a loss (30-9, +18.8 Units) and is 38-18 against teams with a losing record. Philadelphia loves good pitching matchups where it is 34-16 in games with a total of 7 or less. The Dodgers haven’t defended their home turf too well, going 28-31 (-9.6 Units) at home, and also haven’t had much success against winning teams (18-24). Despite quality pitching by Kuroda, the Dodgers are 1-4 in his last 5 starts, with a paltry nine total runs in these five games. An increase in run support is not expected against Halladay. The pick is for PHILADELPHIA to keep its road success going and win a pitching duel Monday night.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also backs the Phillies.

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (L.A. DODGERS) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. (80-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.2%, +41.1 units. Rating = 3*).

And this rare five-star FoxSheets trend urges bettors to play the UNDER on Monday night.

CHARLIE MANUEL is 18-1 UNDER (94.7%, +17.0 Units) on the road when the total is 6 to 6.5 as the manager of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 2.5, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 5*).

Halladay is 14-4 with a 2.55 ERA, and Philadelphia has won 13 of his past 14 starts and 19 of his 23 starts on the year. He has a 2.03 ERA in four career starts versus the Dodgers, but L.A. knocked out 10 hits in seven innings against him last year. The Phils could use some offense out of Ryan Howard who fell into a minor slump in San Francisco, going 1-for-12 with eight strikeouts in the series. Howard isn’t too much better at Dodger Stadium where he only has a .213 lifetime average, but does have nine homers in 80 at-bats.

Kuroda has been plagued with run support, going only 7-13 despite an impressive 2.96 ERA. Despite L.A. scoring just once for him, Kuroda managed to pull out a 1-0 win Tuesday over the Padres. He threw seven scoreless innings, allowing only four hits, to give him four straight quality starts. Kuroda has been outstanding against the Phillies in his career, going 2-1 with a 0.84 ERA and .107 opponents’ BA (11-for-103) in five regular-season starts. He was shelled for six runs in just 1.1 innings in a playoff start in Philly in 2009. But in Kuroda’s last outing against Halladay in 2010, he allowed only one hit with seven strikeouts in 7.2 innings to defeat the ace 3-0.

[StarDust Bum]

Wakefield goes for 200th win Monday at Twins


BOSTON RED SOX (70-43, +6.5 Units)

at MINNESOTA TWINS (51-63, -3.3 Units)


First pitch: Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -125, Minnesota +115, Total: 9

Tim Wakefield and Jim Thome enter Monday night’s Red Sox-Twins series opener in Minnesota searching for their own individual milestones. Wakefield is one win shy of 200 and Thome is two home runs shy of 600 for his career. Wakefield would be just the 108th pitcher all-time to reach 200 wins, and Thome would be the seventh player to join the 600 home run club.

Boston has been terrific this year on the road going 33-21 (+8.3 Units) and even better as a road favorite of -125 to -150 (13-5). The Sox love to string wins together where they are 48-22 (+15.2 Units) after a win and beat who they are suppose to beat, with a 31-22 mark against teams with a losing record. Minnesota has had a disappointing year to say the least and had been subpar at home (26-28, -3.5 Units). The Twins, who are riding a four-game losing skid, haven’t bounced back after losses very well, going 23-38 and 7-16 after three consecutive defeats. The Sox are 5-1 in Wakefield’s past six starts and BOSTON will make this a memorable night for Wakefield, getting his 200th win and defeating the lesser Twins, who have dropped seven of their past eight games.

Two more highly-rated FoxSheets trends favoring the Red Sox are:

BOSTON is 21-6 (77.8%, +15.4 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. The average score was BOSTON 5.5, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 3*).

BOSTON is 48-22 (68.6%, +17.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. The average score was BOSTON 5.4, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*).

The Sox are coming off a ninth inning comeback off Mariano Rivera and a walk-off hit by the young outfielder Josh Reddick (.338 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI). Boston scratched out two of three from the rival Yankees and look for Tim Wakefield (6-4, 4.99 ERA) to keep the ball rolling. Wakefield has had an up-and-down year in the rotation, with a 5.03 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 15 starts. Wakefield pitched decent his last outing, allowing three runs in 6.2 while striking out six Indians. The Red Sox won the game, but Wakefield received a no-decision. He is 14-7 with a 4.54 ERA all-time versus the Twins, but has been shelled in his past two outings against them (9.2 IP, 19 H, 14 R, 11 ER). Dustin Pedroia (.310 BA, 15 HR, 60 RBI) is excited about playing at Target Field, where he is 6-for-12 with two doubles and a homer. Since the All-Star break, Pedroia is batting an even .400 (40-for-100) with four homers, 16 RBI and a .610 slugging percentage.

Minnesota sends Scott Baker to the mound who has been one of the only bright spots for the team. Baker is only 8-6 on the year, but has a nice 3.01 ERA. Baker has been tremendous at home, winning five straight games at Target Field, and allowing just one earned run in those five starts. Baker’s last outing against the Sox on May 6, went very well, as he got the win, allowing two earned runs in eight innings. That is his only career win versus Boston, as he sports a 3.77 ERA and .287 opponents’ BA in 28.2 innings against the Red Sox.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, August 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chi. White Sox - 7:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox -120 500
Baltimore - Under 8.5 500

Boston - 7:10 PM ET Boston -106 500
Minnesota - Over 9 500

Kansas City - 7:10 PM ET Kansas City +144 500
Tampa Bay - Under 8 500

Atlanta - 7:10 PM ET Florida +105 500
Florida - Over 8.5 500

San Diego - 7:10 PM ET San Diego -108 500
NY Mets - Under 7 500

Colorado - 7:10 PM ET Colorado +144 500
Cincinnati - Under 9 500

Washington - 8:05 PM ET Washington +159 500
Chi. Cubs - Over 9 500

Seattle - 8:05 PM ET Seattle +223 500 ( BIG DOG )
Texas - Over 9.5 500

Houston - 9:40 PM ET Houston +181 500
Arizona - Over 8 500

Philadelphia - 10:10 PM ET LA Dodgers +143 500
LA Dodgers - Under 6 500

Pittsburgh - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -182 500
San Francisco - Over 7 500