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**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2011, 10:21 AM

Red Sox Face Sabathia And New York Yankees

The weekend series between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees is all about the aces. The teams continue their MLB betting battle Saturday with first pitch from Fenway Park at 1:10 p.m. (PT).

Boston and New York are tied for the AL East lead at 68-42. That’s pending the final score of Friday night’s opener. The Red Sox were 160 favorites behind Jon Lester with a total of 9 ½-runs. The overachieving Bartolo Colon started for the visitors.

Boston was 8-1 against the Yankees this year heading into Friday. There were two, 3-game sweeps in the Bronx.

The Yanks and Red Sox will both make the playoffs, but will be short on elite starters when they get there. Boston has Lester and Josh Beckett as aces, but Clay Buchholz appears out for the year with a back injury. Erik Bedard was just acquired from Seattle and while he has the stuff to be consistently great, he lacks the mental makeup.

Bedard started Thursday night vs. Cleveland, surrendering three earned over five innings (no-decision) in a 7-3 loss. The teams split a 4-game set at Fenway. Boston is just 4-4 in its last eight home games after going 9-0 in its previous nine.

Boston’s recent offense has to be a concern for manager Terry Francona. It’s at 4.4 runs per game over the last eight versus 5.47 on the season (MLB leading).

New York didn’t acquire any starters at the trade deadline after flirting with Ubaldo Jimenez and Hiroki Kuroda (as did Boston). The team has a Cy Young candidate in CC Sabathia and then a lot of question marks. However, it’s hard to argue with a current 7-game winning streak and 15-5 in the last 20.

New York is 8-2 in its last 10 road games, just completing a 4-game sweep at the White Sox. The ‘under’ is 20-6-2 in its last 28 away games.

Sabathia (16-5, 2.55 ERA) is in a Cy Young battle along with Detroit’s Justin Verlander and the Angels’ Jered Weaver. Each has at least 14 wins and Sabathia has the highest ERA of the bunch.

The 31-year-old lefty Sabathia is making his case with an historic run since May. He’s 13-2 in his last 15 starts with a 2.08 ERA. Almost as impressively, he’s lasted at least 6 2/3 innings in every one of them.

The ‘under’ is 5-0 in Sabathia’s last five starts.

Sabathia’s worst recent outing came against the Red Sox on June 9 (six earned over 6 2/3 innings) He’s 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA against them this year, going 16-2 with a 2.11 ERA versus everyone else.

The rotund lefty’s one start at Fenway this year was on April 10, one earned run over 5 1/3 innings in a 4-0 loss. He’s 2-3 with a 3.78 ERA in eight lifetime regular season starts in Boston.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2011, 10:22 AM

San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Preview

Two of the National League’s best take the field Saturday when the San Francisco Giants host the Philadelphia Phillies in the third game of their four-game series.

Saturday’s game will be played at 1:10 p.m. (PT) at AT&T Park, and has the makings of a pitching duel with aces Cole Hamels and Matt Cain taking the hill.

Each meeting between these two teams so far this season has had the look and feel of a playoff game. Memories of the six-game battle in the NLCS last year still clearly remain, and the added intrigue of both teams looking playoff bound again this year could make this series a playoff preview.

Philadelphia (72-39) entered Friday’s action with the best record in baseball and wins in seven straight games (+7.00 units). The Phillies have been 2011’s most profitable team (+17.8 units this season), and with the addition of Hunter Pence at the trade deadline, they show no signs of slowing down.

Hamels (12-6, 2.62 ERA) has pitched extremely well all season and has been particularly sharp of late, giving up two earned runs or less in 12 of his last 13 games. Interestingly, Philadelphia is just 7-6 (-2.35 units) over that span, due in large part to lack of run support.

One such example came on July 27 when Hamels took the mound against Matt Cain. Hamels pitched 7 2/3 innings and gave up just two runs, but the Phillies fell to the Giants 2-1.

San Francisco (62-50) had a nice hold of the NL West a few weeks ago, but after losing six of their last seven games (-6.15 units) they’ve allowed the surging Arizona Diamondbacks to close their lead to just half a game entering Friday. The Giants need to get things going offensively, and deadline-acquisition Carlos Beltran will be key to their success down the stretch.

Cain (9-7, 3.10 ERA) has been generally dominant over his last 13 trips to the hill, allowing one earned run or less in eight of those 13 starts. That said, when he’s been hit, he’s been hit hard, giving up five earned runs in four of the five starts he didn’t give up one or less in.

Cain is just 1-3 with a 4.91 ERA in six career regular season starts against the Phillies, but has dominated them over his last two starts (including Game 3 of the NLCS), pitching seven innings without surrendering an earned run both times.

Heading into Friday’s matchup, the season series was tied at 2-2, with the ‘under’ having the 3-1 edge over the first four games.

Philadelphia is 31-21 on the road (+4.45 units), and San Francisco is 33-21 at home (+5.87 units). The total has gone ‘under’ in six of Philadelphia’s last seven road games and eight of San Francisco’s last 12 home games.

Infielder Miguel Tejada (abdominal) is out for San Francisco.

Westerly winds of up to 16 mph are expected on a chilly afternoon in the Bay Area. Roy Oswalt is set to return from the disabled list Sunday to face Tim Lincecum.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2011, 10:24 AM

Flat Out Betting Favorite At Whitney Handicap

Saratoga Race Course will send off a field of 11 horses for a 1 1/8-mile journey around the track Saturday in the Grade I Whitney Handicap. Connections will be vying for a piece of the $750,000 purse and fans that are unable to attend in person can watch all the excitement on VERSUS starting at 2:00 p.m. (PT).

The 84th renewal of the race has even greater implications than the cash prize as it’s part of the “Win and You’re In” series that will automatically qualify the winner into the field for the Breeders Cup Classic on Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs.

Flat Out (4/1) drew the rail position with jockey Alex Solis aboard and has gained the distinction of being the morning-line favorite. The betting public will support him at the windows due to a brilliant 6 1/2-length victory in the Grade II Suburban Handicap at Belmont Park on July 2.

The five-year-old out of Flatter has been the betting favorite just once in his career, winning a $42,000 maiden special weight event over six furlongs as a two-year-old at Fair Grounds.

Tizway (6/1) is no stranger to the rigors of racing against Grade I competition, winning the one-mile Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont Park and has been freshened since that race on May 30. Handicappers certainly have their questions in whether the six-year-old can get the distance of this race, but the horse appears to be in top condition after firing a five-furlong bullet in 1:00.34 over the training track last week.

His last attempt at the distance came in the Charlestown Classic (G3) on April 16, finishing third behind one of the entries for this particular race.

Duke of Mischief (8/1) was the winner of that aforementioned race, but then failed to deliver in the Stephen Foster Handicap, as he was forced five-wide in finishing in fourth position. The outside post position is not likely to be a concern for jockey Joe Bravo at the start, as the lifetime winner of seven races has made his run from way off the pace in his last two starts.

Friend or Foe (8/1) will break from the No. 2 post and will be part of the field as long as the track is listed as fast come Saturday. The only New York-bred in the race was scratched from the $75,000 Evan Shipman due to a sloppy track on July 25. With Solis opting to ride the early favorite, trainer John Kimmel has placed rider Jose Lezcano in the irons.

The expected game plan is likely to sit just behind Mission Impazible (6/1) and get first jump on the rest of the field as they turn for home.

In a highly contentious field, Morning Line (10/1) is likely to offer great value heading into the starting gate and bettors may benefit from one of the great jockey-trainer combinations in the game. The Nick Zito-trainee will be ridden by John Velazquez, who has piloted the horse to all four of his career victories.

His only victory over the 2011 campaign came two starts back, winning the Carter Handicap (G1) against a field of eight horses at seven furlongs. Hitting the board in all four of his career races at this distance also packs a punch, including an 11-length romp on this oval on Aug. 21, 2010.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2011, 10:28 AM

Around the Horn - Saturday

August 5, 2011

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Cincinnati at Chicago - 1:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Cueto (7-4, 1.72 ERA) 4-2 L6 OVER 4-0 L4 away on Saturdays
Zambrano (8-6, 4.46 ERA) 6-0 L6 UNDER 12-3 L15 home during day

Cubs beat Reds, 4-3 on Friday

Philadelphia at San Francisco - 4:10 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hamels (12-6, 2.62 ERA) 8-0 L8 10-2 L12 away vs RHP
Cain (9-7, 3.10 ERA) 1-7 L8 UNDER 7-1 L8 home vs LHP

Phillies beat Giants, 3-0 on Thursday
Phillies beat Giants, 9-2 on Friday

San Diego at Pittsburgh - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Luebke (3-6, 3.21 ERA) 4-6 L10 1-8 L9 away vs LHP
Maholm (6-11, 3.27 ERA) 1-10 L11 UNDER 8-2 L10 home vs LHP

Padres beat Pirates, 15-5 on Friday

Milwaukee at Houston - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Narveson (7-6, 4.39 ERA) 9-1 L10 UNDER 6-2 away on Saturdays
Myers (3-11, 4.65 ERA) 2-5 L7 OVER 8-3 L11 home vs LHP

Brewers beat Astros, 8-1 on Friday

St. Louis at Florida - 7:10 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Carpenter (6-8, 3.85 ERA) 3-5 L8 4-8 L12 away Game 3's
Nolasco (8-7, 3.92 ERA) 8-3 L11 3-6 L9 home off loss

Cardinals beat Marlins, 7-4 on Thursday
Cardinals beat Marlins, 3-2 on Friday

Atlanta at N.Y. Mets - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hanson (11-6, 3.20 ERA) 5-5 L10 7-4 L11 away Game 2's
Niese (10-8, 3.94 ERA) 0-5 L5 5-2 L7 home Game 2's

Braves beat Mets, 4-1 on Friday

Washington at Colorado - 8:10 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hernandez (6-10, 4.08 ERA) 5-2 L7 UNDER 6-1 L7 away Game 3's
Chacin (8-8, 3.38 ERA) 3-8 L11 OVER 11-2 home Game 3's

Rockies beat Nationals, 6-3 on Thursday
Nationals beat Rockies, 5-3 on Friday

Los Angeles at Arizona - 8:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Eovaldi (NR) 7-4 L11 OVER 4-1 L5 away on Saturdays
Saunders (8-8, 3.56 ERA) 7-4 L11 7-4 L11 home Game 2's

Dodgers beat Diamondbacks, 7-4 on Friday

AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees at Boston - 4:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Sabathia (16-5, 2.55 ERA) 8-0 L8 6-2 L8 away Game 2's
Lackey (9-8, 6.23 ERA) 4-2 L6 10-2 L12 home vs division

Yankees beat Red Sox, 3-2 on Friday

Toronto at Baltimore - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Morrow (8-5, 4.58 ERA) 7-3 L10 4-2 L6 away on Saturdays
Tillman (2-4, 5.16 ERA) 2-8 L10 2-14 L16 Game 2's

Blue Jays beat Orioles, 5-4 on Friday

Oakland at Tampa Bay - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
McCarthy (4-5, 3.58 ERA) 2-6 L8 UNDER 7-3 L10 on Saturdays
Cobb (3-1, 2.79 ERA) 5-5 L10 2-5 L7 Game 2's

Rays beat Athletics, 8-4 on Friday

Detroit at Kansas City - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Verlander (15-5, 2.24 ERA) 5-2 L7 13-6 away vs LHP
Duffy (3-4, 5.05 ERA) 5-3 L8 4-1 L5 home Game 2's

Tigers beat Royals, 4-3 on Friday

Chicago at Minnesota - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Stewart (0-1, 4.86 ERA) 1-6 L7 5-2 L7 away Game 2's
Pavano (6-8, 4.90 ERA) 4-6 L10 7-3 L10 home off loss

White Sox beat Twins, 5-3 on Friday

Cleveland at Texas - 8:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Carmona (5-11, 5.31 ERA) 3-7 L10 2-4 L6 away Game 2's
Wilson (10-5, 3.38 ERA) 4-6 L10 5-2 L7 on Saturdays

Rangers beat Indians, 8-7 on Friday

Seattle at Los Angeles - 9:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Beavan (2-2, 3.24 ERA) 5-3 L8 2-10 L12 away vs division
Chatwood ((6-7, 3.93 ERA) 7-3 L10 6-3 L9 home vs RHP

Angels beat Mariners, 1-0 on Friday

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2011, 10:30 AM

MLB Series Outlook: N.Y. Yankees at Boston

NEW YORK YANKEES (68-42, +11.8 Units)

at BOSTON RED SOX (68-42, +5.6 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Boston -145, New York +115

After seven straight wins, the Yankees head to Boston tied for first with the Red Sox in the AL East as the rivals start a three-game set Friday night.

With these two superpowers so evenly matched it comes down to the pitching matchups, and Boston has the clear advantage in two of them (Jon Lester over Bartolo Colon on Friday, Josh Beckett over Freddy Garcia on Sunday). Factor in the home-field advantage, plus their eight wins in nine games against the Yankees this season, and BOSTON is the pick. The FoxSheets have a pair of three-star trends that emphasize how well Boston has played against baseball’s best teams.

BOSTON is 33-12 (73.3%, +17.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was BOSTON 5.2, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*).

BOSTON is 19-4 (82.6%, +15.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 6.0, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Pitching Probables for Saturday, August 6 - 4:10 ET
Saturday line: TBD
NYY: 18-6 (+8.9 Units) when CC Sabathia starts
BOS: 9-9 (-3.9 Units) when John Lackey starts
Sabathia (16-5, 2.55 ERA) has put himself squarely in the Cy Young conversation over the past six weeks, going 7-1 with a 1.01 ERA while striking out 78 in 62.2 innings over his past eight starts. He’s 9-3 with a 2.22 ERA in 12 road starts on the year. The Sox have gotten to him this year though, scoring six runs against him in each of his past two starts against Boston.
After a disastrous start to the year, Lackey (9-8, 6.23 ERA) has done a respectable job turning his season around. He’s 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA over his past five starts, striking out 26 and walking just three over 31.2 innings. The Yankees knocked him around back in April, scoring six runs in five innings off Lackey at Fenway.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, August 7 - 8:05 ET
Sunday line: TBD
NYY: 11-8 (+1.3 Units) when Freddy Garcia starts
BOS: 15-6 (+6.3 Units) when Josh Beckett starts
Garcia (10-7, 3.22 ERA) has made three straight quality starts, albeit against inferior lineups (Tampa Bay, Seattle and Baltimore). He’s been torched by the Sox twice this season, both in Yankee Stadium, allowing nine runs (eight earned) over seven innings.
Beckett (9-4, 2.20 ERA) has been absolutely dominant in beating the Yankees three times this season. He’s 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA against them, allowing just 15 base runners and striking out 25 over 21 innings. He has allowed more than three earned runs in a start just once since April. The Sox have won eight of Beckett’s 10 home starts, in which he has a 1.99 ERA.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2011, 10:32 AM

MLB Series Outlook: Atlanta at N.Y. Mets

ATLANTA BRAVES (64-48, +5.1 Units)

at NEW YORK METS (55-55, +5.6 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Atlanta -140, New York +110

The Braves can take control of the NL Wild Card race if they take advantage of their struggling rivals when they visit the Mets for a three-game set this weekend

After winning their first three games since trading Carlos Beltran, the Mets have dropped four straight. They did win two series against Atlanta in June, but the Braves are a winning team on the road (30-26) while the Mets have a losing record at Citifield (22-28). The FoxSheets provide another trend siding with ATLANTA to win the series.

N.Y. METS are 4-12 (25.0%, -9.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. The average score was NY METS 3.6, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Saturday, August 6 - 7:10 ET
Saturday line: TBD
ATL: 14-7 (+3.3 Units) when Tommy Hanson starts
NYM: 12-10 (+4.1 Units) when Jon Niese starts
Hanson (11-6, 3.20 ERA) has been shaky since the All-Star break, posting a 6.56 ERA over 23.1 innings in his past four starts. He was beaten at Citifield in April, allowing three runs in five innings, but for his career, he has a 2.27 ERA over six starts against the Mets.
Niese (10-8, 3.94 ERA) failed to get out of the sixth inning in either of his past two starts, both on the road, but he’s been much more effective at home this season. The Mets are just 5-6 with Niese on the hill at Citifield, but the left-hander has a 3.28 ERA in those games. He’s delivered quality starts in both his outings against Atlanta this season, holding them to four runs over 14 innings.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, August 7 - 1:10 ET
Sunday line: TBD
ATL: 15-5 (+9.4 Units) when Jair Jurrjens starts
NYM: 8-15 (-5.8 Units) when Mike Pelfrey starts
While he has a significant edge in this pitching matchup, Jurrjens (12-4, 2.63 ERA) has been roughed up since the All-Star break, posting a 6.26 ERA over 23 innings (though the Braves won three of his four starts). He also did not pitch well against the Mets in June, allowing eight runs (seven earned) over 11.2 innings, losing both times.
Pelfrey (6-9, 4.48 ERA) has been inconsistent all year, but he’s coming off two of his better starts. He had a complete game win in Cincinnati on July 27, allowing two runs and seven hits, and held Florida to three runs (two earned) over six innings on Monday. He’s been far better at Citifield this season, going 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA. The Braves have really knocked him around of late though, beating him four straight times (three in Atlanta) since July 2010, as Pelfrey posted a 7.23 ERA in those starts.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2011, 11:33 AM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/05/11 16-*12-*0 57.14% +*1335 Detail

MLB

Saturday, August 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 1:05 PM ET Cincinnati -132 500
Chi. Cubs - Over 7.5 500

NY Yankees - 4:10 PM ET NY Yankees -149 500
Boston - Under 9 500

Philadelphia - 4:10 PM ET San Francisco +115 500
San Francisco - Over 6.5 500

Toronto - 7:05 PM ET Toronto -131 500
Baltimore - Over 9 500

Milwaukee - 7:05 PM ET Houston +135 500
Houston - Over 8.5 500

San Diego - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh -113 500
Pittsburgh - Under 7.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 7:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox +103 500
Minnesota - Over 9 500

Oakland - 7:10 PM ET Oakland +136 500
Tampa Bay - Over 8 500

Detroit - 7:10 PM ET Detroit -197 500
Kansas City - Under 8 500

Atlanta - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets +111 500
NY Mets - Under 7.5 500

St. Louis - 7:10 PM ET Florida +113 500
Florida - Under 8 500

Cleveland - 8:05 PM ET Cleveland +195 500
Texas - Over 9.5 500

Washington - 8:10 PM ET Washington +155 500
Colorado - Under 9 500

LA Dodgers - 8:10 PM ET LA Dodgers +136 500
Arizona - Over 9 500

Seattle - 9:05 PM ET Seattle +139 500
LA Angels - Under 7.5 500

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/05/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail

Totals 3-*1-*0 75.00% +950

CFL

Saturday, August 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Hamilton - 9:30 PM ET Hamilton +3.5 500

Calgary - Over 50.5 500

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM ETNew York at Washington

Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

NY 651 12-8 (5-4 V) - 148 OVER

WAS 652 3-14 (1-7 H) - 4 ( Washington + 4 )

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts

8:00 PM ETTulsa at San Antonio

Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

TUL 653 1-18 (0-8 V) - 150 UNDER

SA 654 11-8 (5-4 H) - -14.5 San Antonio

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2011, 11:36 AM

Here is everything for the day as i'll be gone most the morning and afternoon.........Men's Club Golf Club Championship going off this morning and tomorrow morning.......

FOREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE !

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2011, 11:42 AM

And for those who missed the Phillys and Giants Brawl last night

‪Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants Fight! 8 5 2011‬‏ - YouTube

Announcement

The Bum's Saturday's Best Bets MLB-WNBA-CFL !

The Bum's Saturday's Best Bets MLB-WNBA-CFL !

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