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**StarDust Bum** · 08-01-2011, 09:42 AM

Chicago White Sox Face Sabathia, NY Yankees

Postseason contenders in the American League do battle starting on Monday night in the Windy City, and MLB betting fans won't want to miss this duel between the New York Yankees and the Chicago White Sox.

The Yanks are heading into the week with a chokehold on the AL Wild Card slot, but their ultimate goal is to run down the Boston Red Sox at the top of the AL East standings and earn the best overall record in the AL. Chicago meanwhile, is still hovering right around that .500 mark and needs a successful series against the Bronx Bombers to really stay within shouting distance of the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Indians atop the AL Central.

Live TV coverage of Monday night's clash starts at 5:10 (PT) on Comcast Sports North and the YES Network.

Just one day after Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver took the mound against each other, the third major contender for the AL Cy Young Award will be dealing. CC Sabathia had an absolutely stunning month of July, going 4-1 with a 0.92 ERA, and with those numbers he has arguably become the frontrunner for the biggest pitching prize in the league.

Sabathia is up to 15-5 on the campaign and can become the major's first 16-game winner with a 'W' on Monday. The southpaw is well on his way to a fifth straight season with at least 17 wins, but this year might prove to be his most dominating.

The lefty fanned 14 in his last outing against the Seattle Mariners, raising his total to 156 for the campaign. Should Sabathia keep this up, he'll end up with roughly 240 strikeouts, which would fall just shy of the 251 he had in 2008 with the Cleveland Indians and Milwaukee Brewers combined. A 2.56 ERA is the best in Sabathia's career.

The White Sox definitely don't want to have to face Sabathia based on history. He is 17-4 with a 3.68 ERA against them in his 30 career starts. Sabathia is also 9-1 in his 15 starts here at US Cellular Field.

If the South Siders are making the postseason this year, they're going to need better pitching out of Jake Peavy. The righty is 4-4 on the campaign and has a 5.27 ERA, numbers which we are definitely not accustomed to.

These last five starts have been suspect at best for Peavy. He has watched his ERA balloon from 4.23 up an entire run by allowing 21 runs in just 28 1/3-innings of work, and the team has lost four straight starts.

Peavy has only faced the Bronx Bombers twice in his career, taking the loss both times. He lasted just 10 total innings in those games and allowed five runs combined.

Historically, August is the best month of the year for Peavy, though. He is 21-12 in 41 August starts in his career, and has a personal best 2.61 ERA to show for it as well.

These two teams played a 4-game set in the Bronx in April. The Sox split that series. However, they are still just 4-10 in their last 14 attempts against the boys in pinstripes. Three of the four meetings failed to reach the 'total', a stern contrast from the 5-1 mark that 'over' bettors had a year ago.

Temperatures will be steamy at US Cellular Field on Monday night. It should be in the mid-80s when the first pitch is thrown with a minimal chance of rain.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-01-2011, 09:44 AM

NL Central Leaders Collide In Milwaukee

Less than nine weeks remain on the Major League Baseball schedule and the month of August opens with a critical series between the top two clubs in the NL Central Division. The front-running Milwaukee Brewers will be looking to build on their division lead as well as their MLB-best home record when they conclude a 9-game homestand against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Monday's opener gets underway at 5:10 p.m. (PT) with the marquee names from both starting rotations matching up at Miller Park for a second time this season. Assuming neither rotation is shuffled in the near future, the same two hurlers will meet again next week when the clubs get together at Busch Stadium in St. Louis.

Both clubs spent the weekend beating up on the dregs of the division standings and entered their series finales on Sunday poised for sweeps. The Brewers were heavy favorites in the 180-190 range to complete their broom job of the lowly Astros while the Cardinals were at home and drawing 140 chalk to sweep the Cubs on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.

The Cardinals won two of three from the Brewers in St. Louis early-May, all three games staying 'under' the MLB betting totals. A month later in Milwaukee, the Brewers swept three from the Cards with the totals splitting (1-1-1 O/U/P).

One of the Brew Crew's wins at home came with the same mound matchup as Monday's clash that has Zack Greinke (11-5, 4.50) opposing Chris Carpenter (10-12, 3.68). Their June collision is the only one of six meetings between the clubs this season to go 'over' the closing total.

Greinke and the Brewers were -130 on the MLB money line for that contest and gave the home fans a 5-3 win. Carpenter allowed all five Milwaukee runs during the course of his six innings of work while Greinke allowed all three St. Louis runs in seven innings and struck out nine.

Milwaukee won three of Greinke's five July outings and is a perfect 8-0 when he takes the mound at Miller Park where the right-hander has a superb 71:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His victory over the Redbirds in June marked his fourth consecutive start vs. St. Louis that ended with a win for his squad, a streak that includes his final three assignments vs. the Cardinals while pitching for the Royals.

Carpenter continues to try and turn around a bad beginning to the 2011 season that has seen St. Louis' offense frequently take the night off when he's on the mound. The club dropped 11 of Carpenter's first 15 assignments with the lineup averaging more than a full run less than its NL-leading mark.

The loss in June vs. the Brewers wasn't out of character for Carpenter who has had his troubles in the past with their lineup. St. Louis is 4-6 in his 10 starts since joining the club in 2004 and has lost his last three outings against Milwaukee. Carpenter is catching a bit of a break with this start coming while Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks (ankle) is on the disabled list. Weeks is 6-for-10 lifetime vs. the St. Louis righty, three of those six hits clearing the outfield fence.

St. Louis was without Lance Berkman in the lineup for the bulk of the past week as the NL's top home run hitter was nursing a shoulder injury. He's expected back in the lineup Monday and has taken Greinke deep once before when the two met.

There's a slight chance of rain in Milwaukee on Monday but should be clear enough by game time to have the roof open. The clubs continue their series on Tuesday with left-hander Jaime Garcia on the bump for the Cards and Shaun Marcum scheduled for the Brewers.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-01-2011, 09:48 AM

Trade Winners & Losers

July 31, 2011

Nearly every team in playoff contention made an attempt to better themselves for the final two months by acquiring players from other teams that consider themselves out of contention. Most teams addressed their most glaring weaknesses, while others just sat around and let all the key available players slip away to someone else, or simply let them stay put.
The most notable absentee through the trade frenzy was the New York Yankees who are only 1 ½- games behind the Boston Red Sox with a 4 ½-game lead over the Los Angeles Angels in the Wild Card race. The Yankees have been traditionally known as the evil empire because of their ability to not blink at a players high price by either free-agency or rental for a postseason push.

Their most glaring weakness has been starting pitching. It’s basically been C.C. Sabathia and they pray for rain so they can get back to him quicker in the rotation. The Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez was on the table but the Yankees scoffed at the deal in a ploy hoping that the rest of the league wouldn’t give in to the Rockies asking price. But they waited too long and the Indians paid the price in their quest to win the AL Central. Perhaps the Yankees feel they have all the tools in place while waiting for Alex Rodriguez, which will be their boost.

The Angels are fighting for the division crown, only 1 ½ games behind the Rangers, and yet they sat idle during the entire process opting to go on with their dink-and-dunk lineup of hitters and questionable bullpen. All this was going on while the Rangers got better by making deals for Mike Adams and Koji Uehara to bolster their one glaring weakness, middle-relief. Even in the last minutes heading towards the deadline, the Angels made no serious efforts to acquire Heath Bell from the Padres.

A team that could have also used Bell’s services as a closer, and not the set-up role that many coveted him for, was the Cardinals. They have 19 blown saves this season -- second most in baseball -- and added gasoline to the fire in their deals last week by trading for Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepcynski. This was after nearly three weeks of seeing what their chief competitor for the NL Central, the Brewers, did to shore up their weakness by starting the trade season off by acquiring Francisco Rodriguez from the Mets. The Brewers chances of winning the division just got drastically improved by the Cardinals standing still.

The one area the Cardinals have no problems with is hitting, but somehow they felt they needed Rafael Furcal (.197) to shore up their infield. The Cardinals did get Edwin Jackson to help their starting pitching earlier last week, but the Cardinals rotation wasn’t that bad to begin with when comparing it to the pressing need of help in the bullpen.

Despite the Yankees and Angels not making any moves, the Cardinals stand alone as the biggest LOSER of the trade season. Not only did they not seriously address their deficiencies, but they also gave away some of their top prospects, including a star on the rise in Colby Rasmus.

The Padres and Astros gained a few top prospects in all their trades that depleted their rosters, but still weren’t able to make it happen for Bell, who is a free-agent after the season. It’s likely that they won’t be able to sign Bell which makes it all the more puzzling that they could get a good enough offer for him, but found enough for Mike Adams who is under contract through next year on a dirt cheap deal. The Padres raked in the Rangers top pitching prospects in the deal, but what do they now do with Bell, just let him walk without getting a thing for him?

The Giants solidified their lineup in a quest to repeat as they added Carlos Beltran, Jeff Keppinger and perennial playoff participant Orlando Cabrera. Their top rival for the NL crown, the Phillies, kept pace by getting All-Star outfielder Hunter Pence from the Astros garage sale. The Braves picked up a bargain as well by acquiring speedy Astros outfielder Michael Bourn who should give Atlanta a jolt of adrenaline on a nightly basis keeping them in strong contention for the wild card.

Teams that are on the outside looking in, like the Pirates and Diamondbacks, made a couple of deals as well. For the Pirates, even though they didn’t get a top player, at least they made the effort in buying after being sellers for the last 18 seasons. Eric Ludwick is a good addition to an outfield that is struggling in left and right field, but the Derek Lee deal makes you scratch your head in wonderment. Derek Lee? This is the savior to the lineup?

Lee wasn’t any hurry to get with his new team, either, as he didn’t show up after the trade even though Philadelphia, where the Pirates were playing, is less than two hours away on train from New York where the Orioles were playing. It’s amazing that he wouldn’t jump at the chance to be on the first airplane out of a losing team’s locker room. And still, it’s even more amazing that any team would want to trade for a player seven years past his prime. Last year at this same time, Lee vetoed a trade to the contending Angels, but then later accepted a deal to the Braves and didn't live up their hopes.

The buying in Pittsburgh may all be for naught as they have stumbled like all the experts have been predicting for the last three months. After getting swept by the Phillies, the Bucs have now lost eight of their last 11 games through Sunday. But there still may be hope as the sluggish Cubs and Padres can help them regain some momentum this week.

Arizona acquired one of the best relievers in baseball by getting Oakland’s Brad Ziegler (2.39 ERA) in exchange for slugging first-baseman Brando Allen. The D-Backs also traded for Nationals starting pitcher Jason Marquis giving them much more depth in their rotation. These were quite moves, but very affective ones as they addressed major needs in Arizona, a team that is only 2 1/2 games behind the Giants in the NL West and four back of the Braves for the wild card.

The winners in the trade season are Cleveland, Texas, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Arizona and Atlanta. The losers, besides all the obvious sellers who will have to wait a few years to see how the prospects turn out, are the Yankees, Angels and Cardinals. It may not be fair to call teams that didn't make any deals a loser, but the perception from the fans and players make it a major blow from the mindset that the organization didn't do whatever was possible to ensure they did the best to get their team a title.

Joining Bell as players who stayed put were the Cubs’ Aramis Ramirez, Tampa's B.J. Upton, James Shields and Johnny Damon. Baltimore couldn't find an AL team to take Vladimir Guerrero and the Twins thought better of trading Jason Kubel and Denard Span in order to make their own run in an obtainable division with what they have. The Yankees were close to a deal that would have brought highly sought after Dodgers pitcher Hiroki Kuroda to New York, but Kuroda nixed the deal.

The trade talk, and the aftermath, is more or less just something for baseball fans to talk about and either get excited or upset. In Las Vegas sports books, it really doesn't have that much of an impact on future odds.

"You still have the Phillies and Red Sox as being the top teams and every team that has made these deals still has to go through them, to advance, explained Las Vegas Hilton sports book's Jeff Sherman."Our futures are adjusted on a daily basis and are more about what teams are actually doing right now, rather than the possibility of what may happen from any one of these players over the final two months. If a team starts to heat up, they'll be adjusted at that time. It's nothing like what we've done with the Eagles following their free-agent signings in our NFL futures (a move from 12/1 to 6/1 as co-favorite to win Super Bowl)."

Coast Resorts sports book director Bob Scucci agrees.

"We already have the Phillies at less than 2/1 as the favorite to win the World Series and one player, no matter how great, isn't going to change their odds. We're just going to let the money wagered dictate where we go from here."

Scucci noted that even with the Beltran trade to the Giants going on at the same time they were beating the Phillies two games out of three, he didn't touch his odds where the Giants were listed at 12/1. Perceptions could change for bettors this week should the Giants handle the Phillies during a four-game set this weekend in San Francisco. Some may even wager on it rather just talking about it.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-01-2011, 09:50 AM

August Pitchers Report

July 31, 2011

With the MLB trade deadline at hand and the NFL preseason whetting our pigskin appetite, the month of August sets the table for the stretch run of the baseball season. Which pitchers can we count on to satisfy our tastes, and which ones figure to turn our stomach? Take a look below.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a 2:1 or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of August. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in August team starts, winning 33 percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each August over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with September’s Good Month Pitchers.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS

Baker, Scott - 13-4
The Twins best pitcher since the middle of May has lowered his ERA a run and quarter being able to throw strikes and establishing his two and four seam fastball. If Minnesota generates enough offense, Baker should have another memorable August.

Bush, David - 8-3
Pitching out the bullpen for Texas, Bush has been ineffective with an ERA approaching six. Something would have to go very wrong for manager Ron Washington to start Bush anytime soon.

Hernandez, Felix - 12-6
King Felix ended Seattle’s franchise record 17-game losing streak in his most recent start against the Yankees and has to hope he can start securing more offensive support to continue his normally fine record.

Lilly, Ted - 10-5
The left-hander has been like the Dodgers payroll department, coming up empty since June 11 with an ERA over 6.00 in his last six starts. Walks and long counts have been Lilly’s undoing and he’ll hope the dog days of summer bring improved control.

Oswalt, Roy - 14-3
Philadelphia is hopeful Oswalt will return from the bulging disks in his back in the first 10 days of the month and be his usual self in the last third of the season.

Richard, Clayton - 10-5
The San Diego hurler has not pitched since feeling tightness in his throwing shoulder on July 4th. It was thought Richard would miss just one start, but went on the DL soon afterward. He’s been playing catch, but has not thrown off the mound since being injured. His return date is uncertain.

Sabathia, CC - 17-1
The Yankees ace is having a sensational season and August is when Sabathia really heats up. His ERA has been under one the past month and opposing teams are trying if possible to use all right-handed sticks, since the southpaw is wasting lefty batters with their .176 batting average. And much like his August performance numbers, Sabathia’s daylight ERA is sick 1.76.

Santana, Ervin - 12-5
The Angels righty must have thought it was already August, throwing a no-hitter in his last start in Cleveland. Santana has been mixing his pitches well for some time and has a 2.52 ERA in his last 10 outings.

Shields, James - 12-6
The Tampa Bay front office has said they will not trade their right-hander, which is a good decision. Shields has allowed opponents to hit only .225 against him (.264 career average) and has nearly a 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ration.

Wolf, Randy - 13-6
The Milwaukee port-sider isn’t going to dominate, however he gives an honest effort, keeps his team in games with his tailing fastball. He can also jam right-hand batters with a slider that has cutter-action.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS

Billingsley, Chad - 5-11
The thick-legged Dodgers pitcher has been like owner Frank McCourt’s chances of making payroll each month, 50-50. Having just turned 27, Billingsley has never materialized into the ace many forecasted and has had a tendency to fade late in the season.

Cueto, Johnny - 4-9
Having his best season numbers-wise, foes from the other teams are hitting a measly .204 versus the Reds righty. Will Cueto be able to help Cincinnati get hot and back into the NL Central race?

Gorzelanny, Tom - 3-8
Strictly back of the rotation pitcher, who’s never matched his 14-10 2007 campaign with Pittsburgh. Once Washington can find another young starting pitcher, Gorzelanny becomes a reliever or is traded again.

Hamels, Cole - 5-12
Given Hamels’ ability and how good the Phillies are, this is a shocking record for this slender left-hander. However, in the past he’s never had the cutter in his arsenal like this season.

Hernandez, Livan - 3-12
Hernandez is not what you call a physical specimen and as the season wears on; his inability to keep the ball down leaves him vulnerable, since his fastball rarely hits the 90’s late in the year.

Kershaw, Clayton - 6-12
Don’t expect this trend to continue as Kershaw is having a breakout season and is fulfilling his predetermined promise. He’s averaging over nine strikeouts a start in last seven mound trips for Los Angeles.

Lohse, Kyle - 4-9
This is the kind of pitcher that points to the genius of St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan. Every year the Cardinals find a pitcher off the junk heap and Duncan manages to change their approach and squeeze out positive results. Lohse is allowing teams to bat .243 against him which is almost 40 points lower than his career average for the 32-year old. Manager Tony LaRussa needs Lohse to win the NL Central, but history is not on his side.

Maholm, Paul - 6-12
For the first time in his career, Maholm has pitched better than his record (6-10 in 2011). The Pittsburgh chucker has conceded fewer hits than innings pitched for just the second time since joining the big leagues in 2006 as a regular starter and could help the Pirates finish above .500 for the first time in 19 years.

Rodriguez, Wandy • 6-12
This Astros pitcher is a mere 5’11 and has to be more skillful than his taller counterparts in creating leverage and arm angles. Rodriguez can be effective, however he has been on some mediocre Houston clubs and his record is unlikely to improve this month since the “Stros are odious.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-01-2011, 09:53 AM

Around the Horn - Monday

July 31, 2011

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago at Pittsburgh - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Zambrano (7-6, 4.59 ERA) 1-5 L6 OVER 5-0-1 away on Mondays
Maholm (6-10, 3.16 ERA) 1-5 L6 4-1 L5 home Game 1's

Cubs beat Cardinals, 6-3 on Sunday
Pirates lost to Phillies, 6-5 on Sunday

Atlanta at Washington - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Jurrjens (12-3, 2.38 ERA) 4-2 L6 UNDER 5-1 L6 away vs division
Hernandez (5-10, 4.19 ERA) 2-6 L8 11-3 L14 home off win

Braves lost to Marlins, 3-1 on Sunday
Nationals beat Mets, 3-2 on Sunday

Florida at N.Y. Mets - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Vazquez (7-9, 5.10 ERA) 6-2 L8 7-2 L9 away off win
Pelfrey (6-9, 4.55 ERA) 5-2 L7 UNDER 6-2 L8 home off loss

Marlins beat Braves, 3-1 on Sunday
Mets lost to Nationals, 3-2 on Sunday

Cincinnati at Houston - 8:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Arroyo (7-9, 5.58 ERA) 5-5 L10 3-8 L11 away vs division
Norris (5-7, 3.39 ERA) 2-8 L10 2-12 L14 home vs RHP

Reds beat Giants, 9-0 on Sunday
Astros lost to Brewers, 5-4 on Sunday

St. Louis at Milwaukee - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Carpenter (6-7, 3.68 ERA) 7-4 L11 3-6 L9 away vs division
Greinke (8-4, 4.50 ERA) 6-0 L6 16-3 L19 home vs RHP

Cardinals lost to Cubs, 6-3 on Sunday
Brewers beat Astros, 5-4 on Sunday

Philadelphia at Colorado - 8:40 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hamels (12-6, 2.61 ERA) 9-3 L12 6-3 L9 away Game 1's
Chacin (8-8, 3.50 ERA) 5-5 L10 1-5 L6 on Mondays

Phillies beat Pirates, 6-5 on Sunday
Rockies lost to Padres, 8-3 on Sunday

Los Angeles at San Diego - 10:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Kershaw (12-4, 2.72 ERA) 5-3 L8 2-5 away on Mondays
Luebke (3-5, 2.92 ERA) 2-8 L10 OVER 5-2 L7 home Game 1's

Padres beat Rockies, 8-3 on Sunday

Arizona at San Francisco - 10:15 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Kennedy (12-3, 3.22 ERA) 6-2 L8 5-2 L7 away on Mondays
Cain (9-6, 2.91 ERA) 4-6 L10 4-1 L5 home off loss

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Cleveland at Boston - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Tomlin (11-5, 4.01 ERA) 2-8 L10 5-1 away on Mondays
Lackey (9-8, 6.20 ERA) 8-3 L11 OVER 14-2 home Game 1's

Indians lost to Royals, 5-3 on Sunday
Red Sox beat White Sox, 5-3 on Sunday

N.Y. Yankees at Chicago - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Sabathia (15-5, 2.56 ERA) 6-2 L8 UNDER 8-2 L10 away off win
Peavy (4-4, 5.27 ERA) 5-3 L8 9-3 L12 home off loss

Yankees beat Orioles, 4-2 on Sunday
White Sox lost to Red Sox, 5-3 on Sunday

Oakland at Seattle - 10:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Cahill (9-9, 3.58 ERA) 5-2 L7 2-7 L9 away vs division
Beavan (1-2, 3.04 ERA) 2-8 L10 UNDER 8-1 L9 home vs division

Athletics beat Twins, 7-3 on Sunday
Mariners lost to Rays, 8-1 on Sunday

**StarDust Bum** · 08-01-2011, 03:21 PM

Indians-Red Sox begin 4-game set at Fenway

CLEVELAND INDIANS (53-52, +5.3 Units)

at BOSTON RED SOX (66-40, +7.1 Units)

First pitch: Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -175, Cleveland +165, Total: 10

The Cleveland Indians made a statement over the weekend by adding some key additions including Rockies’ ace, Ubaldo Jimenez. The Indians, who are 2½ games out in the AL Central, acted like contenders at the trade deadline but now need to prove they are contenders down the stretch. The Red Sox were relatively quiet over the weekend before landing left-hander Erik Bedard in a three-team deal on Sunday.

Cleveland has not been very strong on the road this year going 24-28, but has enjoyed playing night games where it is a solid 40-32 (+10.2 Units). The Indians have been struggling over their past 10 games (2-8), but Josh Tomlin (11-5, 4.01 ERA) has been good all year and even better of late, going 4-1 in his past eight starts with a 3.81 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Boston has been terrific against teams with winning records this year (31-11), but has actually been a losing bet at home (-1.2 Units) despite a fantastic record at Fenway (33-19). The Sox are just 9-10 this year when they are home favorites of -150 to -175. Monday’s money line of -175 is a big price to pay with John Lackey on the mound, a pitcher with a 6.20 ERA, and that’s after posting a 2.52 ERA his past four starts. The pick here is CLEVELAND at +165.

Some more FoxSheets trends leaning towards the Indians include this pair:

CLEVELAND is 37-25 (59.7%, +13.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 5.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*).

CLEVELAND is 18-11 (62.1%, +9.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 5.4, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*).

Josh Tomlin beat Boston April 5, by throwing a seven-inning, one-run gem. The Red Sox have batted a lowly .149 (7-for-47) the two times they faced Tomlin in his career. Tomlin also pitched very well his last start, going eight innings and allowing two earned runs on only four hits but suffered an unfortunate loss. His control has been unbelievable this year, as Tomlin has just 10 total walks in his past 121 innings, refusing to give up more than one free pass in any of these 19 starts. The Indians need their slugger, Travis Hafner (.294 BA, 9 HR, 42 RBI) to pick up his bat in the middle of the lineup. Hafner has gone 3-for-27 over his past eight games in which the Tribe are 2-6.

John Lackey has been terrific his past four starts (4-0, 2.52 ERA, 21 K, 3 BB) but it his hard to forget about the struggles he withstood before this recent string. A month ago, Lackey’s ERA was at a sky-high 7.47. He has also struggled against Cleveland in recent years. In his past five starts against the Indians, he has a 6.91 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Lackey has recently benefited from the red-hot Boston lineup, receiving 26 runs of support in 25 innings pitched. Dustin Pedroia (.301 BA, 15 HR, 57 RBI) has been tearing the cover off the ball, hitting safely in 45 of his past 48 games.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-01-2011, 03:21 PM

Brewers aim for 7th straight win hosting Cards

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (57-51, -3.9 Units)

at MILWAUKEE BREWERS (60-49, +7.1 Units)

First pitch: Monday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Milwaukee -115, St. Louis +105, Total: 7.5

The streaking Brewers look to win their seventh in a row against a Cardinals team that has stumbled against some lesser teams of late. Milwaukee and St. Louis will send their best to the mound Monday as the 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner, Chris Carpenter, will face the 2009 AL Cy Young, Zack Greinke.

The Cardinals have been average on the road this year (28-27, +0.6 Units) and just 18-20 when playing a team with a winning record. St. Louis is also 2-6 in Carpenter’s last eight starts against Milwaukee, as Carpenter has carried a 6.14 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in these eight outings. Greinke hasn’t lost to the Cards since 2005, going 4-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in the past five games against them. The Brewers hold the best home record in the majors (39-14) and are 26-17 against division foes. The Brewers have fared well against right-handers this year too, going 49-36. Expect MILWAUKEE to stay hot and win at home as it has done so often this year.

Here are two more FoxSheets trends backing the Brew Crew.

MILWAUKEE is 35-12 (74.5%, +19.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.1, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*).

ST. LOUIS is 11-21 (34.4%, -13.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.0, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Chris Carpenter (6-7, 3.68 ERA) started off the 2011 season with just one win in his first 15 starts (1-7 record), but has been sizzling lately, going 5-0 with a 2.21 ERA in his past seven starts. The Cardinals just finished up a seven-game homestand against the NL Central’s two cellar teams (Astros and Cubs) in which they only went 4-3. Albert Pujols (.283 BA, 24 HR, 65 RBI) has not had much success against Greinke (4-for-20), but has recorded eight hits (.471 BA) in his past four games and has a lifetime .340 BA and 1.053 OPS in 75 games at Miller Park.

Zack Greinke (8-4, 4.50 ERA), has not pitched as well as Milwaukee had hoped when they signed the former Cy Young winner to a big contract in the offseason. Despite his high ERA, Greinke has managed an impressive 8-4 record and 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings (123 K in 94 IP). Greinke is coming off a nice pitching victory Wednesday when he threw 6.2 scoreless innings, allowing three hits and striking out nine. The Brewers will need that type of effort out of Greinke against the hot Chris Carpenter. The Brew Crew also need Ryan Braun (.322 BA, 21 HR, 71 RBI) to change his unsuccessful history against Carpenter: 3-for-15, four strikeouts.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-01-2011, 03:37 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

August 1, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nationals are 0-12 since May 25, 2010 as a dog after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and scored more than two runs for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Pirates are 9-0-1 OU since July 18, 2010 when they are off a walk off loss in their starter’s last start for a net profit of $900 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Red Sox are 11-0-1 OU since May 10, 2010 when John Lackey starts as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100 when playing the over.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Giants are 19-3 (+2.9 rpg) since June 2008 at home when they are of a loss in which they drew one or fewer walks.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Dodgers are 6-0 since April 15, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $600.

The Brewers are 6-0 since May 25, 2010 at home after a one run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $610.

The Yankees are 0-9-1 OU since June 04, 2010 on the road after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-01-2011, 03:51 PM

MLB

Monday, August 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 7:05 PM ET Atlanta -140 500
Washington - Under 7.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh -133 500
Pittsburgh - Over 7.5 500

Cleveland - 7:10 PM ET Cleveland +170 500
Boston - Under 10 500

Florida - 7:10 PM ET Florida +104 500
NY Mets - Over 8 500

Cincinnati - 8:05 PM ET Cincinnati -121 500
Houston - Under 8 500

NY Yankees - 8:10 PM ET NY Yankees -178 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 7.5 500

St. Louis - 8:10 PM ET Milwaukee -130 500
Milwaukee - Under 7.5 500

Philadelphia - 8:40 PM ET Colorado +128 500
Colorado - Over 8 500

LA Dodgers - 10:05 PM ET LA Dodgers -123 500
San Diego - Over 5.5 500

Oakland - 10:10 PM ET Oakland -116 500
Seattle - Over 7 500

Arizona - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -125 500
San Francisco - Under 6 500

**J Shizable** · 08-01-2011, 04:46 PM

As always, thanks for the good info. Good luck to you as well.

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