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San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Preview

The ’over’ is 8-2 in the Reds’ last 10 home games vs. a southpaw.
The San Francisco Giants are buoyed by a recent acquisition, while the Cincinnati Reds are in an official freefall. The teams meet Saturday night in Ohio in the middle game of a weekend set.

The first pitch from Great American Ball Park will be at 4:10 p.m. (PT). It’s a mound battle of early 20-somethings in Madison Bumgarner and Mike Leake.

The Friday opener is still pending with San Fran and the surprising Ryan Vogelsong even odds against Cincy and reclamation project Dontrelle Willis.

San Francisco (61-44) made a huge move on Thursday, acquiring outfielder Carlos Beltran (.895 OPS) from the Mets for prized pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. Beltran went hitless in his debut at Philadelphia last night, but the team won 4-1 behind ace Tim Lincecum, also taking the series.

The Beltran move is a big boost to the NL’s 15th-ranked offense (3.59 runs per game). There were prior season-ending injuries to catcher Buster Posey and infielder Freddy Sanchez, so positive news was badly needed for team morale.

Bumgarner (6-9, 3.56 ERA) started slowly this year with a 7.79 ERA after four starts and some questioned whether last year’s rookie sensation was experiencing the dreaded sophomore jinx.

The 21-year-old lefty has quieted the talk and pitched very well since, having quality starts in 15 of his last 17 outings. He’s seen the low-scoring Giants go 6-0 in his last six starts after beginning 4-11. He even got a win the last two times out to boost his underserving poor record.

Bumgarner’s only two poor starts since late April were both at home. That includes an ERA-killing eight earned runs over 1/3 inning against Minnesota on June 21. His road ERA for the season is just 2.54.

Bumgarner allowed one run over seven innings at home against the Reds on June 9, but San Fran lost 3-0. He got racked (seven earned over 2 2/3 innings) at home against them last year. This is his first time pitching in Cincy.

Cincinnati (50-55) was rumored to be in the Beltran sweepstakes, but GM Walt Jocketty has been quiet heading into Sunday’s non-waiver trade deadline. A starter is the biggest need, but Reds’ players would like to see any big move just to know management is behind them.

Manager Dusty Baker’s guys are fading fast after just getting swept four home games by the Mets. The team is barely within striking distance in the NL Central (6 ½-games out), especially with Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and St. Louis all well ahead of them.

Leake (8-6, 4.04 ERA) pitched well in his last two starts at Pittsburgh and home to the Mets. He surrendered three earned runs over 12 1/3 innings, but lost both with just two total runs of support. Cincy is 2-5 in his last seven starts overall.

The 23-year-old right-hander does have eight quality starts in 11 tries (3.18 ERA) since coming back into the rotation in late May after a short minors stint.

Leake threw eight scoreless innings at San Fran last month, getting the win in a 10-2 blowout. He had a humungous 21.21 ERA in two appearances against the Giants last year.

These teams split four games out west in June, with the ‘under’ going 3-1. They split the four games in Cincy last year.

The Giants are just 29-26 on the road this year (+3.4 units), but are 7-3 in their last 10 away.

The ‘under’ is 6-1 in San Francisco’s last seven games overall, scoring just 2.29 runs per game. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in Cincinnati’s last three and 8-2 in its last 10 home games against a left-handed starter.

Weather should be clear and warm in the mid-80s. The Sunday afternoon finale will have Johnny Cueto against the Giants’ weak-link starter Barry Zito.

[StarDust Bum]

Pittsburgh Pirates Meet Roy Halladay, Phillies

Heading into Thursday, the Pittsburgh Pirates were the only National League team to beat the Philadelphia Phillies in a series since June 1. The Pirates took two of three from the Phillies at home from June 3-5 and begin another three-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Friday.

Game time is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. (PT).

Pittsburgh is coming off an emotional four-game series at Atlanta that included the infamous “blown call” game that ended early Wednesday morning after nearly seven hours. The Braves ended up winning 4-3 in 19 innings when Julio Lugo was ruled safe at home plate by umpire Jerry Meals even though he was clearly stopped short by Pirates catcher Michael McKenry.

The teams played another extra-inning game on Wednesday with Atlanta pulling out a 2-1 victory in 10. The Pirates will be happy to be back in Pennsylvania but know they will have to face a difficult foe in NL East-leading Philadelphia.

The Phillies had split the first two games of a three-game set with San Francisco going into Thursday and might have some serious competition from the Giants after they landed New York Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran in a trade. San Francisco knocked out Philly in last year’s NLCS en route to winning the World Series and appears to the top challenger again.

Philadelphia will send ace Roy Halladay (12-4, 2.55 ERA) to the mound in the series opener, and his team has lost just once in the last 12 times he has pitched. The Phillies have won nine straight home games with Halladay starting, and he is 7-1 in 12 outings there with a 2.44 ERA.

In his last start on Sunday, Halladay gave up two earned runs and eight hits in eight innings of a 5-3 win over San Diego, walking one and strikeout out eight. The ‘over’ is 8-3 in his last 11 starts.

The Pirates counter with Charlie Morton (8-5, 3.69), who has excelled on the road this year. Morton has gone 5-1 away from home in eight starts with a solid 3.00 ERA. However, he has not pitched on the road since July 1.

Morton’s last three starts have all come at home, with Pittsburgh winning the past two. He played a major role in beating NL Central foes St. Louis and Cincinnati in those games – allowing a combined three runs and nine hits in 10 1/3 innings – and the ‘under’ cashed in each of them.

Friday’s high temperature in Philadelphia is expected to peak at 96 degrees under partly cloudy skies.

[StarDust Bum]

Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Preview

There’s a weekend battle of the Sox beginning Friday night when the Chicago White Sox welcome the Boston Red Sox. Chicago has dominated this series lately.

The opener from U.S. Cellular Field will begin at 5:10 p.m. (PT). Gavin Floyd will try to break out of his home slump against ageless Boston knuckleballer Tim Wakefield.

The White Sox (51-52) have been the picture of mediocrity this season, but they’re only 3 ½-games behind Detroit in the weak AL Central. That’s after taking two of three at home against the Tigers. Cleveland is two games back and fading fast.

GM Kenny Williams is never afraid to make deadline moves and he sent pitcher Edwin Jackson and utility-man Mark Teahen to Toronto, with reliever Jason Frasor the main piece coming back. Chicago had an extra starter and Frasor will help the pen, so this should be a net improvement.

Floyd (8-9, 4.11 ERA) is trying to finish the year strong. His first two starts after the All-Star break were wins at Detroit and Cleveland, allowing one earned run over 15 1/3 innings. Both games were on six days rest and he’ll be going on similar rest Friday.

The 28-year-old right-hander saw Chicago lose his last six starts before the break, although only two were poor performances, both at home. He’s struggled much more at home (6.26 ERA) this year than away (3.06 ERA).

The White Sox are 2-5 in his limited seven home starts. The ‘over’ is 5-0-1 in the last six.

Floyd has one start versus Boston this year, allowing four earned runs over 6 2/3 innings in a June road win (7-4). His career mark against the Red Sox is 5-0 with a 3.83 ERA in seven appearances (six starts). The ‘under’ is 4-1 in his last five starts against them.

Boston (64-28) is cruising to a playoff berth and can even afford to take it slowly with its injured players like pitcher Clay Buchholz. The team is 9-3 post-break pending Thursday afternoon’s finale against Kansas City. Boston is a huge 280 favorite behind Josh Beckett.

The Red Sox easily lead MLB in runs scored per game (5.56) and that number is 7.08 since the break.

Wakefield (6-3, 5.15 ERA) didn’t begin the year as a starter, but was pressed into duty per usual. His job is to eat up innings from the back-end of the rotation and wait for the potent offense to take over.

The 44-year-old didn’t get much movement on his knuckleball last Sunday, allowing seven earned runs to Seattle over 6 1/3 innings. Boston still won 12-8 and has won his last four starts despite him posting a 6.94 ERA.

Wakefield was the opposing pitcher against Floyd in June, getting the no-decision after allowing four earned runs over six innings. He’s 4-7 with a 4.83 ERA in 18 lifetime appearances (11 starts) at the White Sox.

The ‘over’ is 7-1-1 in Wakefield’s last nine road starts.

Chicago swept the Red Sox on the road the first series and is incredibly 13-2 in the last 15 against them (6-2 at home).

Boston is 31-13 in its last 44 road games after starting the season 0-7. It’s +7.3 units away for the year.

Chicago is an AL-worst -12.1 units at home (23-26). It started the second half with eight road games (going 5-3) before winning the Detroit home series which ended Wednesday.

The ‘under’ is 8-2-1 for the White Sox since the break and 18-4-4 in their last 26 overall. Their offense is 13th in the AL in July (3.52 runs per game), but team ERA ranks second (2.97 ERA).

Weather should be clear and around 80 degrees after scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. The tough Jon Lester starts for Boston Saturday night versus Philip Humber.

[Udog]

I liked Winnepeg last night and was really nervous about booking it without seeing your call!

They got it done but they needed almost the entire game clock to do it!

[StarDust Bum]

Cincinnati Reds Host Giants For Weekend Set

Armed with a new bat for his lineup, Bruce Bochy takes his San Francisco Giants to Cincinnati for a weekend series with the Reds.

Now, if Bochy can just get his starting rotation back in order, the Giants could very well be poised to become the first team to successfully defend a World Series title since 2000.

The first of the 3-game series at Great American Ball Park gets underway Friday at 4:10 p.m. (PT). After their rotation was shifted twice during the series in Philadelphia, the Giants appear to have their starters back in line with Ryan Vogelsong matching up against Cincinnati lefty Dontrelle Willis.

Pitching, of course, has not been Bochy's biggest problem this season. Instead, an offense that ranks near the bottom of the majors in scoring (3.59 RPG) has been an issue. In an effort to remedy the lineup's shortcoming, San Francisco made a deal with the New York Mets on Wednesday to acquire outfielder Carlos Beltran. The Mets also shipped cash to the Giants who parted with Single-A pitcher Zack Wheeler, the sixth overall pick in the 2009 draft.

Beltran was expected to join the Giants for their series finale Thursday in Philadelphia that was still pending. He was batting .289 with 15 homers, 66 RBI and an NL-best 30 doubles at the time of the trade.

Bochy had hoped to use Monday's off day to give all of his starters an extra day of rest while also breaking up the two left-handers in his rotation. That was before food poisoning felled Tim Lincecum who was expected to start the Thursday contest in Philly after originally being penciled in for that series opener on Tuesday.

Vogelsong (11-5, 2.10) has strung together consecutive wins and will be facing the Reds for a second time in 2011. At AT&T Park on June 10, the righty worked six innings while allowing just two runs and striking out six Cincinnati would-be hitters. Vogelsong left the game deadlocked 2-2 and the Giants eventually pulled off a 3-2 win thanks to a Nate Schierholtz pinch-hit, walk-off single in the ninth.

San Francisco has dropped three of Vogelsong's last four road starts, partly because of a lack of offense that the Giants hope Beltran can help resolve.

Willis (1-2, 3.71) will be making just his fourth start of the season after being called up earlier this month, and he's still looking for his first victory. The southpaw worked into the seventh Sunday night vs. the Braves and allowed three runs, but didn't figure into the decision. A Drew Stubbs homer in the ninth gave the Reds a 4-3 win on a +115 price at baseball betting windows.

He hasn't seen the Giants since Aug. 2007, but has faced Beltran plenty during their careers. The new San Fran outfielder is 9-for-31 lifetime (.290) with a homer. Willis also has seen Pat Burrell often over the years with Burrell taking him deep three times with a .410 on-base average vs. the lefty.

Hot and humid with a 30 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms is the Friday forecast for Porkopolis. Game time should find the thermometer in the upper-80s with a WSW wind at 10-12 mph (out to left).

The series continues Saturday with Madison Bumgarner tossing for the Giants against Cincy's Mike Leake. Barry Zito and Johnny Cueto are the expected hurlers for Sunday's finale.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Friday

July 29, 2011


SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Phillies are 14-0 since April 12, 2010 as a home 200+ favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1400.



OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Pirates are 0-10 OU since June 28, 2010 as a 170+ dog and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.



STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Phillies are 12-0 since July 10, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts at home vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $1200.



MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


The Cardinals are 14-0 (+3.5 rpg) since 2004 as a home 130+ favorite after a non-shutout loss in which they did not score after the third inning.



TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Giants are 8-0 since May 28, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $855.

The Marlins are 0-7 since July 06, 2010 as a 140+ dog when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

The Royals are 7-0 OU since June 18, 2010 as a road dog when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing the over.

[StarDust Bum]

Around the Horn - Friday

July 28, 2011


NATIONAL LEAGUE


N.Y. Mets at Washington - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Gee (9-3, 3.75 ERA) 5-5 L10 OVER 5-0 L5 away vs division
Wang (NR) 1-6 L7 5-2 home on Fridays

Mets beat Reds, 10-9 on Thursday
Nationals lost to Marlins, 5-2 on Thursday

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Morton (8-5, 3.69 ERA) 3-5 L8 UNDER 7-1 away on Fridays
Halladay (12-4, 2.55 ERA) 6-3 L9 10-1 L11 home Game 1's

Pirates beat Braves, 5-2 on Thursday
Phillies lost to Giants, 4-1 on Thursday

San Francisco at Cincinnati - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Vogelsong (8-1, 2.10 ERA) 7-3 L10 6-3 L9 away Game 1's
Willis (0-1, 3.71 ERA) 3-6 L9 1-6 L7 home Game 1's

Giants beat Phillies, 4-1 on Thursday
Reds lost to Mets, 10-9 on Thursday

Florida at Atlanta - 7:35 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hensley (1-2, 2.88 ERA) 4-0 L4 0-4 away on Fridays
Beachy (3-2, 3.58 ERA) 5-5 L10 UNDER 8-1 L9 home Game 1's

Marlins beat Nationals, 5-2 on Thursday
Braves lost to Pirates, 5-2 on Thursday

Houston at Milwaukee - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Lyles (0-5, 4.55 ERA) 2-5 L7 0-5 L5 away Game 1's
Wolf (6-8, 3.62 ERA) 5-3 L8 6-2 home on Fridays

Astros beat Cardinals, 5-3 on Thursday
Brewers beat Cubs, 4-2 on Thursday

Chicago at St. Louis - 8:15 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Garza (4-7, 3.72 ERA) 4-6 L10 1-4 L5 away on Fridays
Jackson (7-7, 3.92 ERA) 5-3 L8 OVER 9-2 L11 home vs RHP

Cubs lost to Brewers, 4-2 on Thursday
Cardinals lost to Astros, 5-3 on Thursday

Colorado at San Diego - 10:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hammel (5-10, 4.75 ERA) 2-5 L7 OVER 5-2 L7 away vs division
Stauffer (6-7, 3.05 ERA) 1-5 L6 2-9 L11 on Fridays

Rockies beat Dodgers, 3-1 on Wednesday
Padres beat Diamondbacks, 4-3 on Thursday

Arizona at Los Angeles - 10:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Collmenter (6-5, 2.74 ERA) 5-1 L6 5-2 away on Fridays
Lilly (6-10, 5.08 ERA) 5-2 L7 0-5 L5 home vs LHP

Diamondbacks lost to Padres, 4-3 on Thursday
Dodgers lost to Rockies, 3-1 on Wednesday

AMERICAN LEAGUE


Kansas City at Cleveland - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Francis (3-11, 4.65 ERA) 6-3 L9 4-1 L5 away on Fridays
Carrasco (8-8, 4.25 ERA) 1-6 L7 1-5 L6 home off loss

Royals beat Red Sox, 4-3 on Wednesday
Indians lost to Angels, 3-1 on Wednesday

Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Guthrie (4-14, 4.33 ERA) 3-6 L9 OVER 6-1 L7 away Game 1's
Burnett (8-8, 4.21 ERA) 6-4 L10 6-3 L9 home off loss

Orioles lost to Blue Jays, 8-5 on Thursday
Yankees lost to Mariners, 9-2 on Wednesday

Los Angeles at Detroit - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Chatwood (6-6, 3.64 ERA) 6-2 L8 6-3 away on Fridays
Porcello (10-6, 4.67 ERA) 6-4 L10 1-6 L7 home Game 2's

Angels beat Tigers, 12-7 on Thursday

Texas at Toronto - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Ogando (10-4, 2.79 ERA) 3-5 L8 10-5 away Game 1's
Cecil (3-4, 4.71 ERA) 6-3 L9 OVER 6-0 L6 home Game 1's

Rangers beat Twins, 4-1 on Thursday
Blue Jays beat Orioles, 8-5 on Thursday

Boston at Chicago - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Wakefield (6-3, 5.15 ERA) 8-3 L11 2-4 L6 away Game 1's
Floyd (8-9, 4.11 ERA) 4-1 L5 1-5 L6 home off win

Red Sox lost to Royals, 4-3 on Thursday
White Sox beat Tigers, 2-1 on Wednesday

Minnesota at Oakland - 10:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Liriano (6-8, 4.82 ERA) 5-5 L10 7-4 L11 after scoring one run or less
Gonzalez (9-7, 2.67 ERA) 7-4 L11 5-1 L6 home Game 1's

Twins lost to Rangers, 4-1 on Thursday
Athletics lost Rays, 10-8 on Thursday

Tampa Bay at Seattle - 10:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Niemann (4-4, 3.86 ERA) 2-5 L7 UNDER 6-2 L8 on Fridays
Bedard (4-6, 3.00 ERA) 1-17 L18 1-6 L7 home off win

Rays beat Athletics, 10-8 on Thursday
Mariners beat Yankees, 9-2 on Wednesday

[StarDust Bum]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 5

July 26, 2011

For the second time in four weeks, all four visiting teams won against the spread as an underdog. This time it was a clean sweep straight up as well with Saskatchewan closing out Week 4 on Sunday with a 27-24 victory over Montreal as an 11 ½-point road dog. Hamilton posted the first upset of the week with a 39-31 win over British Columbia as a 3 ½-point underdog on Friday. Saturday’s action started with Winnipeg knocking off Toronto 33-24 as a 3 1/2-point road ‘dog, followed by Edmonton running its record to a perfect 4-0 with a 24-19 victory over Calgary as a three-point pup.
The following is brief preview of this week’s CFL games along with the opening point spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by BetOnline.com.

Thursday, July 28

BC Lions at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-3.5) Over/Under: 52.5

BC’s loss to Hamilton last week dropped the Lions to 0-4 SU on the year and 1-3 ATS. Winnipeg is now 3-1 SU after winning a total of four games last season. The Blue Bombers are a perfect 4-0 ATS. These teams split their two games against one another last season with Winnipeg winning at home 47-35 as a 2 1/2-point favorite and covering the four-point spread as a road underdog in a 16-14 loss.

The Lions are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games against the Blue Bombers overall, but are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Canad Inns Stadium. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 11 of the last 16 games played in Winnipeg and in nine of the last 11 meetings overall. Blue Bombers running back Fred Reid leads the CFL in rushing with 321 yards on 71 carries.

Friday, July 29

Montreal Alouettes at Hamilton Tiger-Cats OFF Over/Under: OFF

The big question for Montreal (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) this week is the status of All-Star quarterback Anthony Calvillo, who was knocked out of this past Sunday’s game after taking a shot to his eye. He is currently listed as ‘questionable’ but hopes to be ready by game time. Hamilton is 2-2 this season both SU and ATS. It lost two of three to the Alouettes last season both SU and ATS, but won 40-3 as 1 1/2-point home underdogs the last time they met.

Montreal is 3-2 SU in its last five encounters at Hamilton and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in nine of the last 11 meetings at Ivor Wynne Stadium and in six of the last seven meetings overall. Montreal backup Adrian McPherson completed 12-of-19 attempts for 98 yards and one TD, while running for two more scores in relief of Calvillo.

Toronto Argonauts at Edmonton Eskimos (-9) Over/Under: 50

Toronto is off to a 1-3 start both SU and ATS, while Edmonton remains perfect at 4-0 both ways as well. These two split their games last season with the Argonauts winning on the road 29-28 as six-point underdogs, followed by a 24-6 loss at home to the Eskimos later in the season as three-point favorites.

Toronto has a slight 6-4 edge SU in the last 10 games in this series and is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 games from Edmonton. The total has gone ‘over’ in two of the last three games at Commonwealth Stadium, but has stayed ‘under’ in five of the last eight. Eskimos QB Ricky Ray leads the league in passing yards with 1,231 on 78 completions, including eight for TDs.

Saturday, July 30

Calgary Stampeders (-2.5) at Saskatchewan Roughriders Over/Under: 53.5

Calgary’s loss to Edmonton dropped it to 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, while Saskatchewan is now 1-3 both SU and ATS after holding on for its first win of the year. These two split four games last season both SU and ATS including the Roughriders 20-16 victory in the West Division Finals as 7 1/2-point road underdogs.

The Stampeders have won just four times in the last 10 meetings against the Riders. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games from Mosaic Stadium and 2-5 ATS in the last seven overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last four games. Calgary WR Nic Lewis has 21 receptions for 299 yards, which is third-best in the league.

[StarDust Bum]

Weekly Betting Recap

July 25, 2011

CFL Week 4

Road teams went 4-0
Underdogs went 4-0 straight up
Underdogs went 4-0 against the spread
The total went 2-2

Overall Season Results


Road teams are 10-6
Favorites are 8-8 straight up
Underdogs are 10-6 against the spread
The ‘under’ is 9-7

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Texas at Toronto

TEXAS RANGERS (60-46, +2.1 Units)

at TORONTO BLUE JAYS (53-52, +3.1 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Texas -140, Toronto +110

After a disappointing four-game split with Minnesota at home, Texas heads north of the border for a three-game set in Toronto starting Friday night.

Canada hasn’t treated Texas well over the past three seasons, as the Rangers are just 3-7 at the Rogers Centre. On top of that, both teams are throwing two lefties in this series. The Jays have an .816 OPS as a team, fourth-best in the majors, against lefties. Meanwhile, the FoxSheets provide a trend showing that Texas hasn’t fared well against southpaws during the Ron Washington era, making underdog TORONTO the pick to win the series.

RON WASHINGTON is 45-77 (36.9%, -28.0 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters as the manager of TEXAS. The average score was TEXAS 4.1, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 29 - 7:07 ET
Friday line: Texas -130, Toronto +120, Total: 8.5
TEX: 12-7 (+2.9 Units) when Alexi Ogando starts
TOR: 4-5 (-0.1 Units) when Brett Cecil starts
Ogando (10-4, 2.79 ERA) was the losing pitcher in the Rangers’ only loss to the Jays during a home set last week. He allowed three runs and nine base runners over 6.2 innings. He also took a no-decision in a loss to the Jays back in April, allowing two runs over six innings in that game. He has pitched better since the All-Star break, after the converted reliever received some extra rest. He threw eight shutout innings in Anaheim in his first start after the break.
Cecil (3-4, 4.71 ERA) shut out the Rangers in Texas on Sunday, by far his best start of the year. Since returning from a midseason demotion to Triple-A, he’s 2-2 with a 3.47 ERA over five starts. He was torched by the Rangers in his two other career outings against them, giving up seven runs over five innings in Arlington in September 2009, and getting torched for eight runs over two innings at home in May 2010.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 30 - 1:07 ET
Saturday line: TBD
TEX: 11-10 (-0.8 Units) when Derek Holland starts
TOR: No Record when Brad Mills starts
Holland (9-4, 4.43 ERA) once again flashed some top-of-the-rotation stuff in his last start, throwing six shutout innings against the Twins. The 24-year-old left-hander had thrown back-to-back shutouts at one point earlier this month, but also gave up seven runs over 5.1 innings in Anaheim as well. He’s been maddeningly inconsistent all year, and has been hammered by the Jays over his career. He has a 10.38 ERA over 13 innings in three starts against Toronto.
Mills makes his first start of the year as the Jays shuffle their roster in wake of a three-team trade earlier this week. The 26-year-old lefty had been solid for Las Vegas of the Pacific Coast League (9-7, 3.99 ERA, 114-to-35 K/BB ratio over 130.2 innings), but has a career 8.22 ERA over five career starts in the majors. Amazingly, the Jays won four of those games.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 31 - 8:10 ET
Sunday line: TBD
TEX: 13-9 (+1.0 Units) when C.J. Wilson starts
TOR: 11-7 (+2.7 Units) when Brandon Morrow starts
Wilson (10-4, 3.16 ERA) is coming off far and away his worst outing of the season. He allowed six runs (five earned) and 11 base runners over four innings at home to the hapless Twins offense. He has been sharp on the road this year though, with a 2.33 ERA over 11 starts. He hasn’t faced Toronto since April 2010, when he threw seven shutout innings in a no-decision.
The hard-throwing Morrow (7-5, 4.71 ERA) is still searching for consistency. Despite an MLB-leading (among starters) 10.46 strikeouts per 9 innings and a solid walk rate (3.5 per 9 innings), he’s been hit hard often this year. He couldn’t get out of the fourth against Baltimore on Tuesday, allowing seven runs (six earned) over 3.1 innings. Prior to that, the Jays had won Morrow’s past seven starts.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (41-60, -16.6 Units)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (61-41, +6.6 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: New York -320, Baltimore +240

The Yankees are trying to keep pace with Boston in the American League East race, and they have a great chance to make up some ground with a four-game home series against Baltimore starting Friday night, which includes a Saturday doubleheader.

The Yankees are once again one of the best teams in the bigs when playing at home (34-21, fourth-best in MLB). Meanwhile, Baltimore has been the worst road team in the league at 15-32. They’re just 10-32 against the Yankees over the past three seasons, and a stunning 4-16 in the Bronx since the opening of the new Yankee Stadium. Despite the small payout on the money line, NEW YORK is the clear pick in this series. The FoxSheets have a three-star trend showing just how bad the Orioles have been against good teams in 2011:

BALTIMORE is 14-40 (25.9%, -25.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.6, OPPONENT 6.1 - (Rating = 3*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 29 - 7:05 ET
Friday line: New York -200, Baltimore +185, Total: 9.5
BAL: 7-14 (-7.4 Units) when Jeremy Guthrie starts
NYY: 10-11 (-5.6 Units) when A.J. Burnett starts
Guthrie (4-14, 4.33 ERA) continues to get little run support, but he hasn’t been sharp over the past month either. He has a 5.83 ERA over his past eight starts. The right-hander has enjoyed no success against the Yankees over the past three seasons (1-7, 6.46 ERA) and has dropped seven consecutive starts against the Bronx Bombers.
Burnett (8-8, 4.21 ERA) has been shaky over the past month, going 1-3 with a 4.62 ERA in his past six starts. He’s failed to make it out of the sixth inning in his past three outings, and he’s given up at least three runs in four straight starts. He’s thrown pretty well against Baltimore over the past two seasons though, going 3-2 with a 3.19 ERA over six starts.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 30 - 1:05 ET (Game 1)
Saturday Game 1 line: TBD
BAL: 5-5 (+1.1 Units) when Chris Tillman starts
NYY: 9-6 (+1.0 Units) when Bartolo Colon starts
Tillman (2-3, 4.69 ERA) will be summoned from Triple-A Norfolk to make his first big-league start since May. He had little success in the International League (3-3, 4.17 ERA, 32-to-23 K/BB ratio in 49.2 innings). But while he struggled to work deep into games for the O’s this year, he did post a 1.33 ERA over his past four starts in the majors. He’s been rocked by the Yankees during his short career. In four lifetime starts against New York, Tillman has an 8.27 ERA over 16.1 innings.
Colon (7-6, 3.29 ERA) continues to be one of the top comeback players of 2011. After back-to-back shaky outings heading into the All-Star break, he’s been sharp. He held the Rays to one earned run over 6.1 innings in Tampa, then threw seven innings of two-run ball against Oakland at home on Sunday.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 30 - 7:05 ET (Game 2)
Saturday Game 2 line: TBD
BAL: 9-9 (-0.1 Units) when Zach Britton starts
NYY: 11-5 (+5.3 Units) when Ivan Nova starts
A Rookie of the Year candidate early on, Britton (6-7, 4.05 ERA) has taken a turn for the worse. He allowed 15 runs (14 earned) over 11.1 innings in his past three big league starts before getting demoted to Double-A Bowie right before the All-Star break. He was 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in three starts in the Eastern League. When things were going much better for Britton, he threw seven innings, allowing just an unearned run, against the Yankees in May.
After being squeezed out of the rotation, Nova (8-4, 4.12 ERA) returns from Triple-A Scranton. He made three International League starts, posting a 3.38 ERA and striking out 18 while walking only two over 16 innings. He had been 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA over his past five major-league starts, all Yankee wins, before his demotion.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 31 - 1:05 ET
Sunday line: TBD
BAL: 11-10 (+1.7 Units) when Jake Arrieta starts
NYY: 10-8 (+0.3 Units) when Freddy Garcia starts
July hasn’t been a good month for Arrieta (10-7, 5.12 ERA), who is 1-3 with a 7.18 ERA over his past five starts. He allowed four runs of more in four of those outings. He has pitched relatively well against the Yankees though. He’s made quality starts in all four of his career outings against New York, going 2-0 with a 4.07 ERA.
Garcia (9-7, 3.23 ERA) is coming off a couple of nice outings, throwing 6.2 innings of shutout ball in Tampa on July 20, then holding Seattle to three runs in 7.2 innings on Monday. He’s faced Baltimore just once since 2006. In April, he threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball, striking out seven, in a no-decision in Baltimore.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis

CHICAGO CUBS (42-63, -19.6 Units)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (55-50, -4.3 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: St. Louis -220, Chicago +170

The Cardinals made a big deadline acquisition by moving Colby Rasmus for Edwin Jackson and bullpen help, a huge lift to a team that sits just one loss behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Cubs, on the other hand, are in a flux with rumors swirling about who they are trying to give away before the deadline for potential financial savings, a recipe for uncertainty and a tough series against their rival.

Play on ST. LOUIS to win the series. The Cards have much more to play for and will receive a boost in getting their first start from Edwin Jackson. The Cubs are also one of the worst inter-divisional teams in baseball with a 15-27 mark against other NL Central squads.

The FoxSheets provide two more trends siding with the Cardinals.

ST. LOUIS is 24-9 (72.7%, +12.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was ST. LOUIS 5.3, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*).

CHICAGO CUBS are 39-60 (39.4%, -17.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.9, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 29 – 8:15 EDT
Friday line: St. Louis -130, Chicago +120, Total: 7.5
CHC: 7-12 (-6.05 Units) when Matt Garza starts
STL: Team is 8-11 (-3.85 Units) when Edwin Jackson starts
Garza (7-12, 3.72 ERA) has been a lone bright spot in the Cubs rotation, and has been great over his past three starts, allowing just three runs in 21 innings. The bad news is he hasn’t been getting any run support, receiving no-decisions in all three of those starts. He pitched well against St. Louis on May 11 (5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K) and figures to be a good play if the Cubs finally get their bats going.
In his first start since being traded to the Cardinals via Toronto from the White Sox, Jackson (7-7, 3.92 ERA) should begin to benefit from leaving the hitter’s haven in Chicago. Pitchers with upside such as him tend to show their chops in St. Louis under the leadership of pitching coach Dave Duncan. He has a 2.45 ERA in his past three starts, and has shown endurance in that span, going 22 innings. He’s a favorable play, though Garza isn’t an easy matchup.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 30 – 4:10 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
CHC: 2-3 (-0.50 Units) when Rodrigo Lopez starts
STL: 9-11 (-3.25 Units) when Kyle Lohse starts
Lopez (2-2, 3.49 ERA) has primarily pitched out of the bullpen this year with 10 relief appearances to five starts, but hasn’t struggled much when he’s been stretched out. In his past three starts he has pitched 19.2 innings and allowed just four runs, so bettors should have no fear laying down on the swingman.
Lohse (8-7, 3.46 ERA), on the other hand, has really had a tough go of it lately. He’s allowed 18 runs in his past 22 innings, losing two of those four starts. The Cubs battered him to the tune of four runs on 11 hits in 5.2 when they faced him earlier this year, raising his ERA to 6.51 in his career versus Chicago. Play against.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 31 - 8:05 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
CHC: 13-9 (+3.80 Units) when Ryan Dempster starts
STL: 12-9 (+3.95 Units) when Jake Westbrook starts
Dempster (7-8, 4.98 ERA) has been at the heart of the Cubs failures this year, having a near-5.00 ERA when he is expected to be an anchor on the staff. He allowed six earned in five innings against the Cubs earlier this year and has given no reason for bettors to be confident in laying down on him; there has been no improvement throughout the season, with a 4.76 ERA in his last three times out. The only positive he brings at this point is a plus amount of strikeouts, but still play against, especially on the road where Dempster is has a 6.45 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.
Westbrook (9-4, 4.86 ERA) has been equally unspectacular this year, but at least that was expected. He’s been better lately though, allowing two runs or fewer in four of his past five starts, getting wins in three of those. Play on him, even though he doesn’t have the firepower that his opponent on the rubber has.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Florida at Atlanta

FLORIDA MARLINS (52-53, -2.3 Units)

at ATLANTA BRAVES (61-45, +6.0 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Atlanta -220, Florida +170

The Braves missed out in the Carlos Beltran sweepstakes when he was traded to the Giants, and they could have really used him with All-Star catcher Brian McCann now on the Disabled List. The Braves still sit comfortably atop the NL Wild Card, but will be in a pinch for the next few weeks to survive offensively with an ailing Chipper Jones (quadriceps), who might not play this weekend, and both Jordan Schafer (finger) and McCann (oblique) on the DL. The Marlins now just sit one game below .500 and have turned it around under Jack McKeon, especially Hanley Ramirez, who has torn up July with a .958 OPS.

Bet on FLORIDA to win the series. The Marlins, winners of five straight games, are a great value over the better (but injured) Braves who will be without their best offensive player. With Hanley Ramirez now playing at his best again, the Fish should be able to hang in any game that their pitching doesn’t blow against their weakened opponent.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports picking the Marlins.

FLORIDA is 21-8 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 5.7, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 3*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 29 – 7:35 EDT
Friday line: Atlanta -160, Florida +150, Total: 8
FLA: 2-0 (+2.05 Units) when Clay Hensley starts
ATL: 6-8 (-3.55 Units) when Brandon Beachy starts
Hensley (1-2, 2.88 ERA) is one of the reasons the Marlins have picked up their play of late, pitching expertly in his two chances to start this year. He doesn’t pitch deep into games, with just 10 innings between his two starts, but is tough to get big hits off of – consider him against a hurting Braves lineup.
Beachy (3-2, 3.58 ERA) may not get a ton of offensive support in his start Friday night, but his strikeout style of pitching should work well against the Marlins. His 85 K in 78 innings should bode well facing a team that has struck out the sixth-most times in baseball, with 783.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 30 – 7:10 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
FLA: 11-10 (-0.20 Units) when Anibal Sanchez starts
ATL: 10-11 (-4.20 Units) when Tim Hudson starts
Sanchez (6-3, 3.60 ERA) has gone eight games without registering a win, although he only has two losses in that span. He’s no different away than he is at home, and has yet to face the Braves yet this season. With no particularly favorable or unfavorable conditions, he should be able to take advantage of a Braves lineup without McCann, if his own lineup will finally give him some run support for a victory.
A crafty veteran, the Braves need something big out of Hudson (9-7, 3.42 ERA). Fortunately, he has a 3.06 ERA lifetime against the Marlins, with a 9-4 record in that span. He is also dominant at Turner Field with a 2.83 ERA there this year.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 31 - 1:35 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
FLA: 9-13 (-6.35 Units) when Ricky Nolasco starts
ATL: 14-6 (+4.70 Units) when Tommy Hanson starts
Nolasco (7-7, 4.04 ERA) has struggled lately, giving up 11 runs in his past seven innings over two starts, bringing his ERA back over 4.00. He’s given up seven earned in 12.1 innings in two starts against the Braves this year and will be pitching in a day game in which he has a 5.21 ERA under the sun this season.
Hanson (11-5, 3.13 ERA) has also struggled lately, giving up 14 earned runs over his past 17.1 innings in the past three times out. But, he shut out the Marlins twice this year in 13 innings, and is the play if this lineup can give him run support against the shaky Nolasco.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: San Francisco at Cincinnati

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (61-44, +12.5 Units)

at CINCINNATI REDS (50-55, -13.1 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Cincinnati -135, San Francisco +105

Welcome Carlos Beltran. The Giants made the biggest splash of July by acquiring the free-agent-to-be and prize of the market, and will play their first full series with him starting Friday against the Reds. The Reds, on the other hand, were just swept by Beltran’s former team, the Mets, in a four-game series in Cincinnati, the first time the Mets have done that.

Play on the GIANTS to win this series with their new acquisition boosting a lineup that was just barely good enough to survive with its elite pitching staff. Ryan Vogelsong should provide a sure win in the first game, and Beltran’s hot bat (1.016 OPS in July) will help all series.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of trends that support the Giants.

SAN FRANCISCO is 17-5 (77.3%, +12.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.5, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 2*).

SAN FRANCISCO is 77-45 (63.1%, +30.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 29 – 7:10 EDT
Friday line: San Francisco -105, Cincinnati -105, Total: 9
SF: 11-5 (+6.20 Units) when Ryan Vogelsong starts
CIN: 1-2 (-0.85 Units) when Dontrelle Willis starts
One of three Giants’ starters with a sub-3.00 ERA, Vogelsong (8-1, 2.10 ERA) is one of the great stories in baseball this season. The Reds hit righties well – 368 runs, fifth-most in baseball – but he will be a tough cookie to beat nonetheless. He has won five straight decisions and has given up three earned runs just once in his past four starts. Play on him.
Willis (0-1, 3.71 ERA) has been better than expected on his comeback tour with the Reds, but unfortunately faces a beefed up Giants lineup that includes Beltran, who as a switch hitter has no issues with lefties. In his career, Beltran has an .836 OPS against lefties, a big aid to the weak San Francisco batting order.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 30 – 7:10 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
SFO: 10-11 (-1.85 Units) when Madison Bumgarner starts
CIN: 9-8 (+0.00 Units) when Mike Leake starts
The lefty phenom Bumgarner (6-9, 3.56 ERA) has picked up his play lately with a 2.08 ERA in his past three starts. In those 21.2 innings, he has 19 strikeouts and no walks, showing how when he’s in control of his pitches, he’s nearly unhittable. The Reds are third in baseball with an .820 OPS against southpaws, so this should be an interesting matchup of a strong lineup against a hot pitcher.
Leake (8-6, 4.04 ERA) was unlucky, coming out on the wrong side of a good pitching battle against R.A. Dickey his last time out, and has shown the ability to succeed against the Giants this season. In his one start against them this year he shut them out over eight innings, allowing just four hits.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 31 - 1:10 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
SFO: 4-4 (+0.55 Units) when Barry Zito starts
CIN: 9-6 (+2.00 Units) when Johnny Cueto starts
Another lefty for the Reds to face, Zito (3-3, 5.24 ERA) has struggled his past two times out, allowing 14 runs in 10.2 innings. He also struggles mightily on the road with a 6.03 ERA away compared to 3.38 at home, so play against here, even if Bruce Bochy follows through with his decision replace Zito in the rotation with Eric Surkamp.
Cueto (6-4, 1.88 ERA) belongs in any discussion of the NL Cy Young Award with his sub-2.00 ERA and ability to shut down any team at any time. With a scoreless outing already in the books against the Giants earlier in the season, he is certainly the play here over the struggling Zito or unproven Surkamp.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia

PITTSBURGH PIRATES (54-49, +16.7 Units)

at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (65-39, +10.8 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Philadelphia -360, Pittsburgh +280

It’s been a long time coming since a late July series between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia had marquee matchup written all over it. Of course we’re talking about an era when Disco was king and falling off of a pair of platform shoes could be hazardous. The last time the Pirates were above .500 and in contention this late in the year was 1992, which was also the last season they had a winning record, and the last season they made the playoffs. Before the Phils won the NL pennant in 1993, they had been a non-factor since winning the ‘83 NL pennant. Yet, it was the disco era that made these teams glitter. Bitter cross-state rivals in the late 70’s who also resided in the same division, the two once-powerful Pennsylvania teams with the P on their caps have been going in different directions for some time.

That was then, this is now. Today Philly and Pittsburgh are both competing for a divisional crown, albeit in different divisions (darn re-alignment). And so when they begin their crucial three-game set this weekend it should have a distinct “I Love the 70’s” feel to it. In a showdown that will carry a lot of sizzle for the first time in years, look for enormously-favored PHILADELPHIA to win the series with the overwhelming pitching advantage in all three games.

The FoxSheets show two more highly-rated reasons to pick the Phillies.

PITTSBURGH is 18-54 (25.0%, -33.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.4, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 3*).

PHILADELPHIA is 19-3 (86.4%, +15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 6.6, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 29 - 7:05 ET
Friday line: Philadelphia -270, San Francisco +235, Total: 7
PIT: 9-9 (+1.9 Units) when Charlie Morton starts
PHI: 17-4 (+10.8 Units) when Roy Halladay starts
Coming off of a four-game series in Atlanta in which they split the series (not sure if people in the Steel City are willing to admit that Tuesday’s 19-inning marathon was an actual loss) the Pirates go from the frying pan to the fire in terms of facing the NL’s best pitchers. On Wednesday, Cy Young contender Jair Jurrjens (12-3) took a no decision against them. On Friday, they face defending NL Cy Young winner Roy Halladay (12-4, 2.55 ERA) who has been almost invincible at home (7-1, 2.44 ERA), leading his team to an 11-1 record in games that he starts in Citizens Bank Park. Halladay is 2-1 lifetime with a 1.45 ERA against Pittsburgh. He defeated them on June 5, going seven innings and allowing two runs on six hits. He will be facing a man that many people are calling “Roy Halladay Jr” in Charlie Morton. Morton adjusted his mechanics, delivery, and arm angle this offseason to resemble Halladay. The results have been pretty good (8-5, 3.69 ERA). On June 4 he showed the Phillies a Halladay-esque performance, holding the Phillies to two runs on six hits over seven innings to earn the win.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 30 - 7:05 ET
Saturday line: TBD
PIT: 12-8 (+6.3 Units) when Barry Zito starts
PHI: 12-9 (-2.6 Units) when Cliff Lee starts
It wasn’t long ago that Cliff Lee (9-7, 3.05 ERA) was making big-league batters look like Single-A rejects, as he threw three straight shutouts in June, and had a 34-inning scoreless streak. The run ended July 3 in Toronto, with a thud, as Lee allowed three home runs in the eighth inning to the Blue Jays en route to a 7-4 loss. Since then has suffered two more no-decisions and a loss. Monday was his second shortest outing of the season, four innings, as the Padres defeated Philly 5-4. Lee is desperate for a bounce-back performance when he faces James McDonald (7-4, 3.95 ERA). While McDonald has won his past two outings, longevity has not been his strong suit. Monday against Atlanta he earned the victory but only went 5.1 innings. The start before he only lasted 6.1 innings. His statline versus Atlanta Monday shows a certain feast-or-famine scenario. While McDonald walked none, he allowed eight hits, and struck out nine batters. His 1.54 WHIP this year could be a sign of trouble against the Phils. On June 5, McDonald was wild when he went just four innings, allowing three runs on three hits and five walks (plus one hit batter) en route to losing to the Phillies and Halladay 7-3.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 31 - 1:35 ET
Sunday line: TBD
PIT: 10-8 (+4.2 Units) when Jeff Karstens starts
PHI: 9-2 (+7.1 Units) when Vance Worley starts
In Philly, they’re wild about Worley! Vance Worley has not made anyone forget about the veteran that he replaced in the starting rotation, Roy Oswalt, he’s just allowed for fans and teammates not to miss Oswalt. Worley has won five straight games. The last Phillies rookie to pull off that feat was Charlie Hudson back in 1983. If this Phillies team can do what that Phillies team did, make the World Series, that would make a lot of Phils fans “partially” happy (winning the series is the real goal). Worley is coming off his first-ever, complete-game victory, a 7-2 win over the Giants. He is now 7-1 with a 2.00 ERA and .198 opponents’ BA in 11 starts this year. Worley will be opposed by Jeff Karstens (8-5, 2.41 ERA) whose ERA isn’t too shabby either. Karstens took a no-decision earlier this season against the Phils, allowing one run on just four hits, as the Bucs defeated Cole Hamels and the Phillies 2-1.